Kashmir: Rivers run through it

[T_i_B]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/analysis/story/0,3604,1438527,00.html

The Himalayan state of Kashmir is the divided heart of the subcontinent, with ventricles beating in both India and Pakistan. Both sides feel incomplete without the other. Cut in the aftermath of partition, Kashmir continues to bleed, though more slowly than when war between India and Pakistan appeared close. Those dark times may soon return, according to a study by the Mumbai-based Strategic Foresight Group entitled The Final Settlement.

This time, whether Kashmir, as a Muslim-majority state, rightfully belongs to the Islamic republic of Pakistan or validates the secularism of India is not the reason to return to battle. Instead, the study concludes that north-western India and the neighbouring Pakistani region, the breadbaskets of both countries, are drying out - unless the two nations act soon, they will trade blows over water, not land.

The six rivers of the Indus water basin flow through Kashmir's mountains and valleys from Tibet and water the plains below. In 1960, the World Bank brokered a deal where India would get the three eastern rivers, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, while Pakistan was awarded the three western flows of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.

Skirmishes over water are becoming a regular feature in both areas. In India, two lower riparian states, Punjab and Haryana, with nearly 20m acres of cultivable land, face a crunch over water in the next five to 10 years. Indian Punjab last year uni laterally annulled all water treaties with neighbouring states and has refused to build key canals to share resources. The scene is set for ever-bigger punch-ups.