STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 12 November

[ozymandius]

Friday November 12, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 336 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 25 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1086
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 11, 2004

Dow... 10,469.84 +84.36 (+0.81%)
Nasdaq... 2,061.27 +26.71 (+1.31%)
S&P 500... 1,173.48 +10.57 (+0.91%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.25% +0.04 (+0.85%)
Gold future... 435.40 +0.90 (+0.21%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.13 Change -0.24 (-0.28%)

Bank of Japan governor says world needs rival to US dollar as global currency

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1100254316-9e32d306-16911

TOKYO (AFX) - Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Toshihiko Fukui said it would have a stablizing effect on the global financial system if a clear rival to the US dollar as a key global currency were to emerge

Speaking at a symposium in Tokyo on the theme "The Euro: Five Years On -- Implication for Asia", the Japan central bank chief cited data showing the common currency of the 12-nation European currency bloc is emerging as a serious rival to the dollar as a key currency for conducting global trade and investment

"In the past five years (since its launch in 1999), the importance of the euro has increased considerably," Fukui told the seminar, which featured such other speakers as European Central Bank vice-president Lucas Papademos, and Toyoo Gyohten, the highly respected former Japanese vice-minister for international affairs. Fukui said more than 50 countries link their currencies to the euro, while the proportion of foreign exchange reserves held in euros has risen to 20 pct, and nearly a third of the cross-border-issued bonds are now denominated in euros. Fukui seemed to welcome the growing prominence of the euro by referring to the dangers associated with allowing any single currency to dominate global commerce

"In such a situation, the economy of the key currency is easily tempted to focus its economic policy on domestic considerations," an apparent thinly veiled rebuke to the economic policies followed by the US adminstration of President George W Bush

"In today's globalized economy, this could lead to undesirable ripple effects on the rest of the world, through the fluctuations of the external value of the key currency." Fukui said if there were two competing key global currencies, "competition between them could lead to more attention to the external value of key currencies. This could have a positive effect on the stability of the global financial system." The BoJ chief briefly indicated that the Japanese yen also had a role to play in that regard

"I believe that the yen can and should play a larger role in the global market," Fukui said, citing trends which could make that a certainty

...more...

Dollar Moves Deviate From Fundamentals, Watanabe Says (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aWpY8svTlDUU&refer=japan

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Hiroshi Watanabe, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, said current movement in the dollar's exchange rate is rapid and deviates from U.S. economic fundamentals.

Japan is ready to take aggressive action in the currency market if necessary, Watanabe told reporters in Tokyo.

``We will closely monitor currency moves and take aggressive action as needed,'' Watanabe said.

The U.S. economy remains ``strong'' and there are no fundamental reasons for the U.S. currency to weaken against the yen and the euro. The U.S. currency won't weaken ``one-sidedly,'' he added.

``We consider the currency market to be showing rapid movement that doesn't match U.S. economic data'' such as gross domestic product and employment, he said.

Watanabe also said expansion of the U.S. current account deficit is slowing and Japan trusts in the currency policy of the new administration of President George W. Bush. U.S. policy makers realize currency adjustments alone won't help to reduce the country's current account deficit, he added.

...more...


Today's Reports:

Nov 12 8:30 AM
Business Inventories Sep
report -
briefing.com 0.4%
market 0.5%
last report 0.7%
revised -

Nov 12 8:30 AM
Retail Sales Oct
report -
briefing.com -0.2%
market 0.1%
last report 1.5%
revised -

Nov 12 8:30 AM
Retail Sales ex-auto Oct
report -
briefing.com 0.6%
market 0.6%
last report 0.6%
revised -

Nov 12 9:45 AM
Mich Sentiment-Prel. Nov
report -
briefing.com 91.0
market 93.0
last report 91.7
revised -

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

5. HAHAHAHA! and What-a-knob-be he to think that. I think the movement

of the dollar matches the true "fundamentals" perfectly. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

9. Dollar Falls on Speculation U.S. May Tolerate Currency's Slide

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the yen and traded less than a cent from a record low versus the euro on speculation the U.S. doesn't share the concern of Japanese and European officials about the U.S. currency's slide.

The U.S. will tolerate a weaker dollar, the Nikkei Financial Daily newspaper said today, without citing anyone. Japanese Vice Finance Minister Hiroshi Watanabe said yesterday currencies are moving rapidly and the dollar's slump deviates from U.S. economic fundamentals. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its dollar forecast on expectations the Bush administration won't protest its decline.

``The U.S. will continue to have a benign-neglect policy -- they may say they want a strong dollar but continue to let it decline,'' said Carsten Fritsch, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG. ``It wouldn't make sense to take action against the market and isn't in their interest.''

snip>

``We believe that currency values are best set in open, competitive markets,'' U.S. Treasury spokesman Rob Nichols said today, adding that ``we don't comment on day-to-day market fluctuations.'' The Bush administration hasn't changed its ``strong-dollar policy,'' Nichols said.

``They're not saying anything at all, investors are making up their own minds about the merits of the dollar,'' said Ryan Faulkner, a currency strategist in London at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. who used to work at the Federal Reserve.

more...

[ozymandius]

10. What? Japan wants a dollar alternative?

Imagine that. With all the propping Japan has been doing, buying dollars like they're mining gold, it makes me wonder why they show so little care in protecting their investments.

So what will this comment spook more: the stock markets or the bond markets?

[54anickel]

16. I'd lay odds on the bond market. The stock market just doesn't seem

to take a decline in the buck as bad news. I wonder if the last straw for some of our foreign friends might be that Jobs Creation bill Shrub pushed through last month. This quote made me think of that:

"In such a situation, the economy of the key currency is easily tempted to focus its economic policy on domestic considerations," an apparent thinly veiled rebuke to the economic policies followed by the US adminstration of President George W Bush.

I keep thinking back to that old article from '99 where the euro block held hope that a Shrub win would back their desire to return to a Bretton Woods type of deal, but fixing to a basket of currencies and commodities rather than a single currency. :shrug:

[ozymandius]

29. It would seem you're right.

This seems to be measurable bahavior among other nations' stock markets. Like this report about Japan:

Japanese Stocks Higher Despite GDP Data

TOKYO (Reuters) - Tokyo's Nikkei average was 0.79 percent higher at midsession on Friday, recovering from an early fall on weak Japanese GDP (news - web sites) data as some operators were relieved the figure wasn't negative and others said it merely confirmed their views on the economy.

-cut-

"I think the GDP data simply confirmed views, underlined by a slew of recent data, that the economic growth cycle is at a plateau," said Yoshinori Nagano, chief strategist at Daiwa Asset Management.

Real estate firms, communications and banks led the Tokyo market higher by midday as the GDP data showed domestic demand was carrying most of the burden for now in maintaining growth in the world's second-largest economy.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=10&u=/nm/20041112/bs_nm/markets_japan_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

from the Japan fact sheet:
GDP Growth -0.470 percent
http://biz.yahoo.com/ifc/jp.html

While it seems that Japan continues to export massive quantities of products we in the west buy - they do not look so good on paper. Do you think this is due to currency manipulation? :shrug:

[54anickel]

38. I'm not sure. I've been trying to read between the lines of that article

most of the morning.

snip>

Real estate firms, communications and banks led the Tokyo market higher by midday as the GDP data showed domestic demand was carrying most of the burden for now in maintaining growth in the world's second-largest economy.

snip>

Stock market analysts said the data was better than it looked in that consumer spending was stronger than expected.

Weak external demand and a fall in capital spending were the main factors behind the low GDP number and these analysts said capital spending, especially in the technology sector, might pick up in coming months after solid half-year results.

snip>

"So now's the time to look on the bright side ... The outlook for corporate earnings (for the year to next March) looks favorable," he said.

Remember this past March when there was plenty of intervention going on until corporations finished repatriating their overseas profits for the year-end? Perhaps all this talk of intervention has assured the markets of a repeat? :shrug:
snip>

Among firms dependent on domestic demand, shares of leading real estate company Mitsui Fudosan Co. rose 1.92 percent to 1,166 yen while Mizuho Financial Group, Japan's biggest bank by assets, was up 1.67 percent at 425,000 yen.

snip>

But Takefuji Corp., Japan's top consumer finance firm, slid 4.04 percent to 6,420 yen after the Financial Times reported on Friday that the founding family had agreed with three U.S.-based hedge funds to sell them 1 million shares a day for the next 25 days at a 3 percent discount to the volume-weighted price of the shares.

The rest of these snips sound eerily familiar, relying on the consumer to pick up the slack.

[54anickel]

40. Mizuho, Three Biggest Rivals Are Upgraded by Moody's

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=ae2WDxPwr9iQ&refer=japan

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan's biggest bank, and its three biggest rivals had their credit ratings raised to higher than the Japanese government's by Moody's Investors Service, which cited their success at cutting bad loans.

The new A1 local currency ratings, which compare with the government's A2 level, apply to the bank's main lending units, New York-based Moody's said in separate statements today.

Bad loans at Japan's seven largest banking groups fell 33 percent in the 12 months ended March 31 to 14 trillion yen ($132 billion), according to earnings statements reported in May. Giving all the banks the same credit ratings may not fully reflect differences in their business outlook, said Takashi Miura, a credit analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Tokyo.

``It's questionable that all the banks have only marginal differences,'' Miura said. ``It also makes me wonder whether Moody's is intending to raise Japan's credit rating.''

Japan's economy expanded for the past six quarters, after enduring three recessions in the previous decade, enabling more companies to pay their debts.

more...

[ozymandius]

18. Dollar Ignores Data, Creeps Lower vs. Yen

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar dropped against the yen on Friday, as the market ignored a mostly positive report on October U.S. retail sales and remained focused on the record U.S. current account deficit.

The government said retail sales in October grew 0.2 percent compared with a upwardly revised 1.6 percent increase in September. Economists had expected an increase of 0.2 percent in October.

Sophia Drossos, currency strategist with Morgan Stanley in New York, said the data, while "an underlying positive for the economy," had little impact on the "dollar, which is just trading on policy issues right now."

"The market really is ignoring the economic news out of the United States and not really paying attention to relative growth and interest rate differentials," she added.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=5&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_forex_dc&sid=95609877

[54anickel]

21. Hey UIA, here's a new currency chart they recently added over at

forexnews. Check it out when you get a chance. (It's mostly Greek to me)

http://www.forexnews.com/other/newchart/chart.asp

[UpInArms]

39. thanks 54anickel -

you know how I just love charts :D

seems to give some pretty good info for longterm changes in currencies

:hi:

[UpInArms]

2. China says foreign trade to rise 30% this year - report

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38303.3112599653-826535005&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

LONDON (CBS.MW) -- China's foreign trade is set to jump 30 percent in 2004 to $1.1 trillion, AFX News cited the country's department of commerce as saying on its website. By the end of the year China would rank third in the world for both total foreign trade value and export value, the report said. This would see China rise one place in both categories.

[54anickel]

6. WHOOSH!!! n/t

[UpInArms]

3. Reports coming in

8:30am 11/12/04 U.S. OCT. EX-AUTOS, EX-GAS SALES UP 0.5%

8:30am 11/12/04 U.S. RETAIL SALES UP 7.6% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30am 11/12/04 U.S. OCT. GAS STATION SALES UP 4.3%

8:30am 11/12/04 U.S. OCT. GENERAL MERCHANDISE SALES UP 0.9%

8:30am 11/12/04 U.S. OCT. BUILDING MATERIAL SALES DOWN 1.1%

8:30am 11/12/04 U.S. OCT. AUTO SALES DOWN 2.2%

8:30am 11/12/04 U.S. SEPT. RETAIL SALES REVISED 1.6% VS. 1.5% PREVIOUS

8:30am 11/12/04 U.S. OCT RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 0.9% VS 0.6% EXPECTED

8:30am 11/12/04 U.S. OCT. RETAIL SALES UP 0.2% VS. 0.1% EXPECTED

U.S. Oct. retail sales up 0.2%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38303.3542094907-826539492&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. retail sales showed surprising strength in October, rising 0.2 percent despite a large decline in auto sales, Commerce Department figures show Friday. Auto sales declined 2.2 percent in October after a 4.3 percent increase in September. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.9 percent, the strongest sales since May. The figures were slightly better than expected. Gasoline station sales rose 4.3 percent in October, contributing about half the increase in ex-auto sales.

[ozymandius]

4. Retail Sales Rise, but Auto Sales Drop

WASHINGTON - Consumers, after a big spending spree in September, grew more cautious last month, with retail sales edging up just 0.2 percent, the government reported Friday.

The Commerce Department (news - web sites) said that the small October increase followed a huge 1.6 percent jump in September, which had been the best showing in seven months.

...short story...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/ap/20041112/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy&sid=95609868

[UpInArms]

20. U.S. Nov. UMich consumer sentiment improves to 95.5

9:48am 11/12/04 U.S. NOV UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 95.5 VS 93.8 EXPECTED

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38303.4093050463-826546167&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. consumer sentiment improved slightly in early November, according to media reports of proprietary research from the University of Michigan released Friday. The UMich consumer sentiment index rose to 95.5 from 91.7 in October. It's the best reading in three months. Economists were expecting the index to rise to 93.8.

[UpInArms]

23. U.S. Sept. business inventories up 0.1%

10:00am 11/12/04 U.S. SEPT. BUSINESS INVENTORIES UP 0.1% V FORECAST 0.5%

10:00am 11/12/04 U.S. SEPT. BUSINESS SALES UP 0.3%

10:00am 11/12/04 U.S. SEPT. INVENTORY-TO-SALES RATIO REMAINS AT 1.32

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38303.4167702431-826546951&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Inventories at U.S. businesses rose 0.1 percent in September, below expectations and slower than the 0.3 percent increase in sales, the Commerce Department said Friday. The inventory-to-sales ratio, an indication of demand, remained at 1.32 for the third consecutive month. Economists had been expecting the nation's inventories to rise 0.5 percent in September, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

[Tempest]

26. October retails sales up 0.2%, which is down from 1.6% in Sept.

This isn't good going into the holidays.

[ozymandius]

7. Word: stock market being used as a piggy bank again today

Stocks Are Set to Open Flat to Lower

NEW YORK - U.S. stocks are seen opening flat to lower Friday, as profit-taking is likely in wake of yesterday's strong rally on the back of the oil-price retreat.

Dow Jones futures fell 6 points recently, while Nasdaq futures were up 0.5 points and S&P futures increased 0.10 points.

...more specifics about foreign market and individual company performance...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=10&u=/ap/20041112/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street&sid=95609876

[ozymandius]

12. It's all about the oil.

Stocks Seen Flat Are Oil Edges Higher

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures got a slight boost on Friday after a report showed U.S. retail sales rose in October, but the market still looked to open flat, pulling back from the previous day's rally as oil prices nudge higher.

-cut-

"The retail numbers were stronger than expected particularly the core number. This should be good for stocks and help support the short term bullish momentum in the market," said Bill Strazzullo, chief trading strategist at State Street Corp.

-cut-

Oil prices perked up from 7-week lows on Friday on forecasts for colder-than-normal weather in the U.S. Northeast.

U.S. crude rose 20 cents to $47.62 a barrel after a slide that has knocked 14 percent off the Oct. 25 all-time peak of $55.67. High oil prices have dragged on stocks as investors worry that high energy prices will pinch corporate profits and slow consumer spending.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[54anickel]

8. Political and Monetary Reform

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=37485

Bob Hoye is a market historian and editor of Institutional Advisors, a provider of research to financial institutions, mining, and petroleum companies internationally. The following is taken from an address to the Committee For Monetary Research & Education, Inc., October 28, 2004

Financial history and libraries are never as dull as they may seem. In my experience a couple of decades ago, it was like prospecting for gold, but within the relative comfort of dusty library stacks. The discoveries ranged from Eureka! to the vignettes of life.

During the 1600s, the Northern Hemisphere suffered an unusually cold climate that has been described as the "Little Ice Age". Naturally, this increased the use of fireplaces. A broadsheet published in 1625 in Newcastle promoted the benefits of burning coal to warm a household, in particular the warmth and glow from the bedroom fireplace "hath heightened the joys of intimacy".

Be that as it may, another vignette was on the political side when two bitter opponents encountered each other in a London street. On an exchange of mannered insults, one said, "You sir, will either die of the pox or on the gallows." The response was "And that, sir, depends upon whether I embrace your mistress or your principals."

To be serious, there is much to be learned from a thorough review of the actual history of the financial markets rather than as filtered through orthodox theories.

The highlight of today is the struggle between those compelled to bring us yet more intrusive government and those who've had enough. Over the past 2000 years, this intense struggle has occurred before and freedom eventually won. Tuesday's election could provide another step.

more...

[ozymandius]

11. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Is there anything new Under the Sun on Wall Street?(Probably Not)

The latest rally has been impressive and the heavy trading volumes suggest that it may continue in the days even a couple of weeks ahead, but is it time to rethink whether this is a new bull market? If you wait, are you missing a once-in-a-lifetime chance to hop on a New Bull Market while it’s still early and get rich quick? Is it finally time to listen to the “everyone” who has been right for about two years? Is the next major move up? My opinion in a few words is that this is not a bull market, because:
1. Technical Charts – There is a preponderance of broadening patterns in sector, market, and company charts, which I have discussed in an article last April. The extent of the broadening patterns in the broad stock market has even broadened recently. 2. Fundamental Valuations – The stock market is arguably more expensive now than it was at the 1929 peak, which was also about the time that a president with the reputation for being “good for business” took the oath of office. While this tradable rally is likely to continue by most accounts, this is not a Bull Market. Tonight, I will discuss comparative stock market valuations between those of 1929 and the present, which suggest that our current stock market is expensive by historic standards and has valuation metrics similar to pre-crash 1929.

-cut-

Conventional wisdom suggests that today’s “low” interest rates justify higher stock market valuations. So you would think that interest rates were higher around 1929 compared to now. So what was the rate of the 10-year Treasury note in 1929 compared to today’s rates? The rate was lower then than now – 3.3% in 1929 compared to 4.2% today (rates appear to be rising concurrent with four straight Federal Reserve interest rates hikes and at least another one “in the bag”). If all other factors were equal, stocks should be valued lower today versus 1929 on the basis of the 10-year Treasury note interest rate.

Is the stock market forecasting boom times ahead not seen in the rear view mirror of past earnings or forward estimating Wall Street analysts? This cannot be known for sure, but you must consider that the all time high 12-month per share earnings in September 2004, are over 11% higher than the earnings in any previous 12-month period ever! As listed in Table 3, below, Wall Street analysts see the DJIA increasing its 2004 EPS by an average of 14% in 2005. Does it seem plausible that the large and somewhat stable DJIA companies are poised to grow earnings by 14% above than the current all time high? Such lofty expectations were probably the order of the day in early 1929 as well. In the most recent stock market crash that began in late 1999 and early 2000, Wall Street analysts were expecting earnings growth of more than 13% above the all-time-high earnings, and we all know how that prediction turned out.

-cut-

Technical View – Broadening Patterns

I want to emphasize that the fundamental case presented above is more months-to-a-year-based, than a prediction of what will happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. In January 1929, the DJIA opened the year at about 260 and gained an additional 50% before topping in October at 388.10. There may be some clue as to timing the top from the discussion of broadening patterns in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 8th edition (page 151) that may suggest that from a timing perspective, we are near the top:

“This particular form (broadening) appeared at the 1929 tops of many of the active and popular stocks that day, but with less frequency at the Bull Market highs since 1929…”

more... including good charts that could not be posted here

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

68. Presenting a Positive Case for the Stock Market in 2005 (Counterpoint)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/griess111004.html

n this Observation, we examine some historical trends of the stock market. It is an attempt to use many of the charts available on our web site to build a POSITIVE case for the stock market from what history might be telling us.

snip lotsa charts and yadda>

Wrapping it all up:

The historical record strongly suggests that 2005 could be an "up year" for the stock market.
Did we have a "stock market bubble" from 1995 to 2000, complete with excesses we probably have not seen since the late 1920's, yes!
Should we join the "Doom and Gloom Society?" No! Wait until 2006.

Heh-heh-heh! :evilgrin: :hi:

[54anickel]

13. A yellow flag on jobs data

Free subscription required - no bugmenot available.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/columnists/ddimartino/stories/111204dnbusdimartino.98852.html

snip>

"We realize that we are just about the only ones out of the Wall Street economic houses not dancing in circles over the October payroll report," wrote David Rosenberg, chief economist at Merrill.

snip>

Digging in reveals that about 150,000 jobs were added by the construction, fast-food and hotel industries and temporary workers. Mr. Rosenberg attributes a majority to a "hurricane effect," largely from construction in the Southeast.

Hiring was also highly concentrated. The "diffusion index," which measures the percentage of industries hiring, fell to 56.8 from 59.2 in September. This stands in stark contrast to the 68 readings recorded in April and March, the last time we saw 300,000 months.

"Over two-thirds of the job gain last month was centered in just one-quarter of the employment pie," Mr. Rosenberg said.

Companies also loaded up on part-timers, "not a sign of momentum in terms of business confidence," he wrote.

The number of people working part time for "economic reasons" jumped by 280,000 in October. That may be because 22.2 percent have been looking for a job for 27 weeks or more.

snip to the scary part>

His solution for a market that refuses to acknowledge anything but the best news?

"Just keep hikin', Mr. Greenspan. Don't stop 'til we start seeing employment go down," he advised.

[UpInArms]

14. link?

:hi:

[54anickel]

19. DOH! I added it to the post.

[durablend]

28. Good to know somebody isn't drinking the Kool Aid

Everyone seemed to gloss right over the "hurricane effect" and went straight for the 300K+ added jobs number.

[UpInArms]

15. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:16 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures trade still points to a modestly higher open for the cash market... Michigan Sentiment will be out 15 minutes after the open (9:45 ET) while September Business Inventories are expected at 10:00 ET.

8:55AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Futures market still strengthening on strong Retail Sales figures, signaling a potentially prosperous holiday shopping season... As such, the cash market is poised for a moderately higher open.

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures market pares its losses on better than expected October Retail Sales report... Both figures -- including and excluding auto sales -- handily topped the market's expectations... As such, the cash market appears poised for a relatively flat open.

8:22AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures market still on the defensive, signaling a lower open for the cash market... Overseas markets however are showing signs of strength... Economic data out today -- Retail Sales (consensus 0.1%), Retail Sales ex-auto (consensus 0.6%) are out at 08:30 ET... September Business Inventories (consensus 0.5%) are expected at 10:00 ET.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. Little enthusiasm seen in the futures market as current indications suggest the cash market will start the day on the downside... Look for profit taking following yesterday's run up coupled with December crude oil futures ($47.80 +0.38) returning front and center as major catalysts... Oil is rebounding over concerns of a possible strike by Nigerian oil workers and potentially low heating oil supplies.

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's breakout above June's high crossing at 1532.50. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above June's high crossing at 1532.50 would open the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 1563 later this year. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1520.65 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 2.50 pts. at 1542.50 as of 5:50 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was mostly steady overnight as it consolidates above monthly fib resistance crossing at 1170.60. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and is rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, a test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1157.75 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was steady at 1173.70 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a mostly steady opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

17. Fed Copies & Pastes with Optimism

http://www.forexnews.com/AI/default.asp

The FOMC made the following minor adjustments to the statement, which we deem to be cautiously optimistic. These are:

1) The Fed omitted the opening in the second sentence of the second paragraph stating, “After moderating earlier this year partly in response to the substantial rise in energy prices”. This indicates that the Fed does NOT consider anymore the economy to have slowed as a result of rising energy prices.

2) The FOMC omitted "modestly” from its description to the improvement in the labor market and simply stated that “labor conditions have improved” from the September statement stating “improved modestly” in recognition of the 337,00 rise in the October employment payrolls report and the decline in weekly jobless towards 3-year lows.

3) FOMC described output growth “to be growing at a moderate pace” from September’s “appears to have regained some traction”. We consider this to be a discreet improvement because it is not stated in the context of comparison to a soft patch.

All in all, the Fed’s decision suggest that the central bank remains cautiously optimistic in seeing robust economic activity and modest increases in GDP growth accompanied by acquiescent price pressures. The Fed’s rhetoric does allow the door open for a December rate hike especially that it stuck with its belief that “policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured”.

December Fed Hike Largely Depends on Oil

snip>

Dollar Seen Weak but no Disaster

snip>

...It is safe to assume that rhetorical and operational intervention from the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of China would help prevent a dollar route. But as long as oil prices remain above $45 per barrel and China refrains from any meaningful tightening of its monetary policy, the currents weighing on the US currency shall remain greater than those favoring it.

more...



edit to add:

Looks like the minutes from the Sept FOMC meeting will be released this afternoon as well.

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

snip>

Trader swill also shed some light on the afternoon release of the FOMC minutes from the September meeting, which lifted rates to 1.75%. The usefulness of the minutes could lie in clarifying the extent to which members have sought to tighten policy and whether there were any FOMC members who expressed the need to halt the current tightening cycle.

Also of note, Fed watcher John Berry, in an editorial in Bloomberg, said that the chances of another FOMC rate hike in December are evenly balanced. Contrary to markets already pricing in an 80% chance of another 25-bp hike, Berry sees just as much likelihood for the Fed to hold steady. He feels the upcoming economic data, and particularly the labor report prior to the meeting, to be key in determining next month’s outcome.

[antigop]

22. WSJ editorial

Did y'all catch this editorial in yesterday's WSJ? I normally can't stomach the editorial page, but I did read an editorial titled "Dollar Anxiety" (page A16)


Last two paragraphs:
>> Which gets us to the issue of Mr. Bush's second-term economic team. Our sense is that it's no longer possible for Karl Rove to run economic policy out of his hip pocket. With interest rates expected to rise in the next couple of years, one thing we know for sure is that there will be financial casualties at home and abroad. Some companies and countries always make bad bets, and their troubles will need a Treasury with enough financial skill and experience to manage the fallout.
Whether John Snow stays or goes as Secretary, the Treasury Department needs more financial help in its senior ranks. The Treasury does need a leader to sell tax cuts and Social Security reform. But the legislative agenda won't go anywhere if a financial or dollar crisis erupts first.
>>

Sorry for posting info from yesterday on today's stock market thread. Just thought I would share what I found.

[UpInArms]

24. 10:08 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,468.66 -1.18 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,059.38 -1.89 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,172.50 -0.98 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.231% -0.023

NYSE Volume 200,104,000
Nasdaq Volume 327,104,000

10:00AM: Market takes a dip despite the preliminary November reading for Michigan Consumer Sentiment which came in at 95.5 (consensus of 93.0)... The household survey showed a 3.8 point increase from October following the uncontested Presidential election and a strong non-farm payrolls figure for October... Buying interest has not materialized on this report, though, as traders have taken profits following yesterday's run up and news that Elliot Spitzer sees more criminal actions from the insurance probe... Separately, September Business Inventories came in lower than expected at 0.1%...

The market has traded slightly lower in response...NYSE Adv/Dec 1289/1242, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1029/1311

9:40AM: Mixed start for the indices, which have been boosted by strength in Asian markets and strong October retail sales of +0.2% (0.9% excluding autos)... The Retail Sales figure excluding autos showed the biggest increase in five months, which can be viewed as a particularly strong indicator for the upcoming holiday selling season... Michigan Sentiment is expected in the next few minutes... Market is expecting a reading of 0.93...

[ozymandius]

25. no 10am bounce today

10:12
Dow 10,470.50 +0.66 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,059.53 -1.74 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,172.44 -1.04 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.223% -0.031
NYSE Volume 217,075,000
Nasdaq Volume 352,306,000

and blather

U.S. stocks open mixed

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks opened mixed Friday morning, as momentum from the previous session failed to carry over despite better-than-expected readings on retail sales and consumer sentiment and a strong report from Dell Computer.

Strategists believe momentum is still there, however.

"Many have been looking for a broader participation -- in semiconductors and tech stocks in particular -- to confirm that there's an uptrend at work here," said Joe Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Ryan Beck & Co.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041112/e61b287a615fae231d3dd55c9ce7dd27_1.html

[54anickel]

27. Chicago market plans overseas links

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/36d84130-3443-11d9-a728-00000e2511c8.html

The Chicago Stock Exchange (CHX) is in “preliminary discussions” with four stock exchanges in Asia and Canada about possible partnerships that could see one or more of the exchanges taking stakes in CHX, exchange officials said on Thursday.

The development came as members of the CHX, the fifth largest US stock exchange by value of stocks traded, approved a demutualisation plan that would allow it to take part in industry consolidation.

US exchanges are undergoing a wave of demutualisation, in some cases followed by stock market listings, as they face increasing competition domestically and abroad.

Andrew Davis, CHX vice-chairman, said the exchange had held discussions with the Toronto, Sydney, Hong Kong and Singapore exchanges about arrangements that could involve an equity stake being taken in CHX by any of the four.

He said the exchanges made “a compelling case as partners” because publicly listed stock exchanges outside the US were having some difficulty providing returns to shareholders based on stock market business generated from the domestic economies of their home bases.

more...

[54anickel]

30. Boom Time for Credit in Southeast Asia

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/12/business/worldbusiness/12credit.html?oref=login

Chamikorn Buranananda has a vision of a Thailand where everyone, rich or poor, city dweller or rice farmer, is in debt - be it for a car loan, mortgage, a credit card or some other loan.

"You want an educated population that can manage debt," said Mr. Chamikorn, who after helping General Electric start its own finance operations in Thailand has moved on to become managing director at Capital OK, a consumer finance start-up with ties to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Capital OK is a newcomer in a market that has been gathering momentum in Thailand and throughout Southeast Asia for the last four years. As strengthening economies enable more consumers to emerge from poverty to the lower middle class, banks and finance companies are greeting them with financing options once limited to developed nations.

"It is booming," said Supavud Saicheua, an economist at Phatra Securities in Bangkok. "There are lots of finance companies and banks interested in expanding the business." In Thailand, consumer credit grew 35 percent last year, according to Fitch Ratings, sending the average household's debts up to 52 percent of its income.

snip>

By offering the long-neglected Southeast Asian consumer convenient loans, economists say, these lenders are helping to stimulate domestic consumption that can offset the region's dependence on exports, which ebb and flow.

more...

[UpInArms]

31. Fannie Mae won't issue benchmark notes this month

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38303.4290002546-826548457&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Mortgage company Fannie Mae (FNM) will not issue its Benchmark Notes this month, the company announced Friday. But Fannie intends to issue Benchmark securities in accordance with its previously announced calendar for the rest of the year, according to a press release.

[54anickel]

32. China lifts barrier on local bank fund units

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/bb8839ea-341a-11d9-a728-00000e2511c8.html

Beijing has approved the establishment of fund management ventures by local commercial banks - a decision expected to attract interest from foreign money managers seeking partners in China.

It is a breakthrough in the Chinese financial sector because the government has until now prohibited banks from directly owning securities companies.

Liu Mingkang, the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said the State Council had cleared local banks to do the fund business in ventures with qualified partners with a record in the area.

snip>

Ma Weihua, president of China Merchants Bank, said his bank had been talking to several foreign institutions to form a joint venture fund management firm. Foreign participation, if approved, would be capped at 33 per cent of the equity. "We could have one or two foreign partners but the foreign stake would be limited to 33 per cent."

Allowing commercial banks into the fund management business was an important reform. One reason was that banks were too reliant for revenue on the difference between the loan and deposit rates, but in future should derive more income from fee-based operations. Another reason was to inject more funds into the stock market, which still plays little role in China's capital markets. Banks account for more than 90 per cent of China's financing needs.

more...

[54anickel]

33. As Baby Boom Ages, Era of Guaranteed Retirement Income Fades

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/12/business/12norris.html

WE live in an age when a lot of promises regarding retirement are going to be broken. Just how they are broken, and what replaces them, will have profound effects on the future of the industrial nations that have dominated the world economy in the last century.

What is at stake is a reversal of perhaps the most important economic trend in developed countries since World War II, that of guaranteeing financial security for their citizens. In most major countries, governments came to provide health care and an assured pension. In the United States, some of that came from employer-financed health care and pension plans, but the results were often similar.

Now, increased competition stemming from globalization has left many companies scrambling for ways to cut costs. And many pension and health care plans are pay-as-you-go systems whose generous benefits while the baby boomers were working now seem unsustainable as that huge population group begins to retire.

snip>

One can, as Mr. Bush does, hail the trend as part of an ''ownership society,'' in which individuals will prosper if their investments do well, and the markets' strong performance in the 1980's and 90's has left many Americans confident. The hostility to elected governments seen in Europe - partly due to the financial strictures officials have proposed - is not evident in the United States.

But there is a risk of a negative cycle as the increased risks become understood. Americans could conclude that they need to save more and spend less to offset these risks, thereby slowing the economy and perhaps worsening the performance of the investments, which could cause them to want to save even more. And the transition to a new Social Security system must involve benefit reductions in the near future or a huge transfer from other tax revenue, meaning either tax increases or rising budget deficits.

more...

[UpInArms]

34. Four NYSE traders are laid off before regulatory action

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-nyse-traders1112nov12,0,3502428.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire

NEW YORK (Dow Jones/AP) _ At least four New York Stock Exchange traders were fired or suspended this week as federal and exchange regulators prepare to bring charges against them for allegedly profiting from trades at the expense of their customers.

LaBranche & Co., the biggest specialist firm on the NYSE, dismissed Michael Nichols and Vincent Papandrea, said several people close to the firm and the exchange floor. The specialist unit of Bear Stearns Cos. suspended two traders, Kevin Fee and Frank Delaney, the people said. The specialists and spokesmen at the firms didn't return several calls for comment.

The traders are the latest of at least 16 that have lost their jobs since the NYSE's seven specialist firms earlier this year agreed to pay about $247 million to settle charges of trading violations.

When the settlements were announced in March and July, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the NYSE said they were continuing to investigate individuals, including "certain senior executives" who were aware of or participated in the alleged violations.

Officials at several firms said they expected enforcement actions against individuals to come soon. NYSE Chief Regulatory Officer Richard Ketchum wouldn't comment on timing but said numerous individuals will be affected. "There will be a substantial number of actions," he said in a brief interview Thursday.

...more...

[54anickel]

42. S.E.C. Warns Amex Leaders It May File Civil Charges

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/12/business/12exchange.html

The Securities and Exchange Commission has notified the top three executives of the American Stock Exchange that they may face civil charges of failing to properly enforce the exchange's rules, the exchange's board disclosed yesterday.

The commission has warned Salvatore F. Sodano, the exchange's chairman and chief executive; Peter Quick, the president; and Michael J. Ryan, the general counsel, that it may bring complaints against them. Such a warning, known as a Wells notice, gives an individual the opportunity to defend the actions cited; regulators could still choose not to bring a complaint.

The Amex executives are being investigated in connection with an S.E.C. investigation into the exchange's regulation of its options trading, an area that has been a persistent thorn in the side of the exchange.

Giving notice of pending civil action to executives at the highest levels of an exchange is highly unusual, and it appears to indicate that regulators are concerned about whether the Amex can effectively police itself.

American Stock Exchange traders were told about the notices after the close of trading yesterday. One senior trader who has worked on the floor of the Amex for more than 20 years but who asked not to be named because of his long-standing ties to the exchange said many were shocked.

more...

[UpInArms]

35. 9:47 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,478.83 +8.99 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,065.54 +4.27 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,174.23 +0.75 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211% -0.043

NYSE Volume 356,981,000
Nasdaq Volume 574,062,000

10:30AM: Stocks bounce off their lows of the morning and are back above water for the moment... September Business Inventories came in at +0.1% (consensus of 0.5%) and demonstrated weak growth compared to a 0.9% average over the last three months... But as a somehwhat lagging indicator of the manufacturing process, the market does not appear to be overly influenced by the figure... Sectors showing strength in the early going include airlines, computer hardware, networking and energy... Areas under pressure, however, are insurance, health care, financials and biotech... NYSE Adv/Dec 1366/1418, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1067/1505

dollar

Last trade 84.07 Change -0.30 (-0.36%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.33 Low 84.00

Volume 1,738

Last tick: 2004-11-12 10:17:10 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

36. Schwab plans layoffs, smaller offices

http://www.nynewsday.com/business/ny-bzchas124039131nov12,0,4276969.story?coll=nyc-business-headlines

Faced with declining revenue and fierce competition, Charles Schwab Corp. is revamping its branch system and planning another round of layoffs.

The San Francisco-based company said yesterday it will turn 39 regular branch offices into smaller "satellite" offices staffed by one or two Schwab employees, compared with up to 12 workers employed in traditional branches. The company also plans to open 15 satellite offices.

In contrast to traditional branches, where customers can walk in, people visiting satellite offices will need an appointment, according to Sarah Bulgatz, a spokeswoman for Schwab. The company said those offices will be in areas where its clientele "doesn't support the infrastructure" of a walk-in center, including places where it has recently closed traditional branches.

Schwab also will merge 19 branch offices in metropolitan locations with existing nearby branches.

Bulgatz wouldn't say what areas will be affected by the changes or how many people will be laid off. But she said the number of layoffs would be "relatively small."

...more...

[UpInArms]

37. TXU Power to mothball 8 gas-fired plants

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38303.3712848843-826541543&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - TXU Power, a unit of TXU (TXU) Friday said it will make inactive eight natural gas-fired electric generating units. The impacted units represent 25 percent of TXU Power's natural gas-fired generation capacity in Texas. About 75 workers "could be affected through staffing reductions at the mothballed units," TXU said. Shares of the Dallas utility Thursday rose 40 cents to $62.93.

[54anickel]

41. Paring US budget deficit should be top priority: economists

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1519&ncid=749&e=6&u=/afp/20041111/bs_afp/us_economy_budget

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Trimming the record US budget deficit should be the top economic priority for the second term of President George W. Bush (news - web sites), a survey of economists showed.

A Wall Street Journal survey of 55 economists showed more than half felt the budget deficit would be the biggest economic challenge for the second term of the Bush administration.

The deficit -- which hit a record 413 billion dollars in the just-ended fiscal year -- was placed ahead of social security, health care and tax reform in the survey.

snip>

"This situation can be corrected by economic policies in the US and also in other countries, among them Europe, or through the markets without governments intervening ... We believe that the US government, with which we have had recent meetings, fully agrees with this analysis and is conscious of the need to implement a fiscal policy that will reduce the public deficit in the next few years consistently throughout this next administration."

BWAAAAAHAHAHAHA!

[54anickel]

43. U.S. Michigan Sentiment Index Rose to 95.5 in Nov. From 91.7

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a0w_aod1igPY&refer=home

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence rose in early November as President George W. Bush won re-election, stocks rose, and the government reported job creation surged in October.

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 95.5 from 91.7 in October, Reuters reported. The increase was the first since July, and followed a four-point jump in the university's October index between the preliminary release Oct. 15 and the final report on Oct. 29.

``Clearly this suggests that the economy picked up some steam at the end of last month,'' said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. fixed income economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., in a message to clients before today's report.

While Fed studies have shown confidence doesn't necessarily correlate to changes in spending, sales are rising at companies such as Target Corp., Starbucks Corp. and American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Retail sales rose 0.2 percent last month, more than expected, the Commerce Department said today. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.9 percent, a third more than expected.

Bush won re-election by a more than 3.5 million votes Nov. 2, avoiding a disputed election result. Payrolls surged 337,000 last month, the most since March. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index rose to the highest close since August 2001 yesterday, as crude oil prices fell to a seven-week low. :puke:

more...

[Marxdem]

97. I hope your puking emoticon is reffering to Bush and not the market

Hoping that the market tanks is for losers. My retirement and many others are on the line. Plus paying $2 a gallon for gas stinks.

[54anickel]

44. Eww, BIG sudden drop in the buck

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 83.94 Change -0.43 (-0.51%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.96

Last tick: 2004-11-12 11:00:29 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

48. would this be a new "piehole" effect?

11:36am 11/12/04 PM BLAIR: WE NEED TO SUPPORT PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS

11:33am 11/12/04 BUSH: TO VISIT EUROPE AS SOON AS POSS POST-INAUGURATION

11:31am 11/12/04 BUSH: WE SEEK DEMOCRATIC STATE FOR PALESTINIAN PEOPLE

11:30am 11/12/04 BUSH: VIOLENCE COULD ESCLATE AHEAD OF IRAQI ELECTIONS

[54anickel]

51. Heh-eh, Sure looks that way.

[UpInArms]

45. dollar unhappy - "achieving" 83.91

Last trade 83.91 Change -0.46 (-0.55%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.96

Volume 1,738

Last tick: 2004-11-12 11:01:17 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

46. Jinx! Owe me a Coke!

[UpInArms]

50. a little something for you :)

and some numbers, too!

Last trade 83.86 Change -0.51 (-0.60%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.85

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-12 11:08:26 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

47. Notice how they aren't quite so quick to update the low? What's that

about? It sat at 84.00 for the longest time, even though it had dipped below that. :shrug:

[54anickel]

49. 83.75 looks achievable once again - sort of like Wednesday when it

dipped below 83.75 for just a bit.

Last trade 83.87 Change -0.50 (-0.59%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.85


The December Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's short covering bounce, which marked a key reversal up. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If the decline continues, monthly support crossing at 83.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.58 then gap resistance crossing at 85.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

[UpInArms]

54. dollar "achieving" 83.82

Last trade 83.82 Change -0.55 (-0.65%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.85

Volume 1,738

Last tick: 2004-11-12 11:31:27 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

55. Heh, and again the low ticker is "stuck". WTF? n/t

[54anickel]

52. UPDATE 1-Gold scores fresh 16-yr high, platinum strong

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH61222_2004-11-12_15-58-13_L12121115

LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Gold squeezed out another 16-year peak on Friday afternoon in Europe at $437.40 per ounce, before shrinking back slightly with the euro after robust U.S. data took the shine off bullion for non-U.S. investors.

Dealers remained confident on chances of moving to $450 -- last seen in June 1988 -- as worries about a record U.S. current account deficit were expected to keep up pressure on the dollar.

snip>

Traders said gold had been "remarkably resilient" this week given the fall in oil prices, although the metal was still hooked mainly into currency moves.

"We have seen good interest from funds, along with some bouts of profit-taking. But whenever we see that, new customers are stepping in," David Holmes, vice-president at RBC Capital Markets said.

Gold struggled for weeks to crack a band of selling at $430 an ounce before breaking through late last week, attracting another wave of fund buying despite an over-extended speculative long position on the New York market.

Analysts said improved sentiment was also linked to the imminent listing in New York of a new exchange-traded gold fund.

[54anickel]

53. Short view 105

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d9770c18-33ea-11d9-a728-00000e2511c8.html

Where is George Soros when you need him? With talk emerging of European Central Bank intervention to drive down the euro, and Asian central banks trying to maintain their pegs against the dollar, the stage seems set for a battle between the authorities and the markets.

However, this time it is different. In 1992, Soros took on the Bank of England which was trying to hold up the value of a currency. Currently, central banks are trying to hold their currencies down.

When a central bank is trying to support its currency, it relies on its stock of foreign exchange reserves. Eventually, these will run out. That gives speculators a target. But in theory, the central banks have infinite ammunition to force their exchange rate down. They can simply issue more and more of their currency in order to buy dollars.

It is not quite as easy as that. The infinite capacity of central banks depends on the intervention being unsterilised, in other words the extra currency is added to the nation’s money supply. That has inflationary implications.

snip>

Redeker believes the fall in the dollar is a sensible means of reducing global imbalances such as the US current account deficit. Europe has benefited from strong export growth but has suffered from sluggish global demand. If a strong currency enables eurozone interest rates to be kept low, boosting consumer demand, that is quite a sensible policy mix.

more...

[UpInArms]

56. 12:11 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,482.52 +12.68 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,066.99 +5.72 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 1,175.37 +1.89 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.173% -0.081

NYSE Volume 628,544,000
Nasdaq Volume 939,122,000

12:00PM: Stocks opened mixed this morning but choppy trading following three weeks of gains has left a touch of uncertainty going into the weekend... Buying interest was initially fueled by strength in Asian markets and strong October Retail Sales of +0.2% (consensus was +0.1%), or +0.9% excluding autos (consensus +0.6%)... Better than expected Retail Sales, which account for almost half of all consumer spending in the U.S., should signal a potentially succesful holiday shopping season...

Another economic report of interest was the November Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading, which also came in better than expected at 95.5 (consensus was 93.0), and has helped keep a more positive tone intact... But a worse than anticipated September Business Inventories figure of 0.1% (consensus of 0.5%), coupled with a modest bounce in crude oil ($47.88/bbl +$0.48) off yesterday's lows, has kept some blue chips under pressure... Dell (DELL 39.87 +2.62) meanwhile, surging after in line Q3 results last night and upbeat comments about corporate demand, has lit a fire under technology stocks...

As a result, networking, hardware, and disk drive sectors are all trading higher while insurance companies have taken a hit... New York Attorney General Elliot Spitzer said that there will be more criminal actions from the ongoing insurance probe...

dollar (now the "low" has been updated)

Last trade 83.80 Change -0.57 (-0.68%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.80

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-12 11:41:11 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

58. 12:33 EST numbers (trying for 10,500 while the dollar dumpster dives?)

Dow 10,490.71 +20.87 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,067.32 +6.05 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,176.71 +3.23 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.181% -0.073

NYSE Volume 694,465,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,016,331,000

Last trade 83.77 Change -0.60 (-0.71%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.77

Volume 1,738

Last tick: 2004-11-12 12:00:15 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

59. Dollar "achieves" 83.74

(where's that aaa-ooooo-gah horn when you need it?)

Last trade 83.74 Change -0.63 (-0.75%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.74

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-12 12:02:18 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

60. Question - Do you think the PPT has the ability to temporarily pull the

plug on Forex too? The buck seems to be stuck.

Last trade 83.75 Change -0.62 (-0.73%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.71
Last tick: 2004-11-12 12:22:12 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

61. my suspicions would run more to

someone in the "treasury" having connections with a person in a foreign central bank or some such entity that could begin "buying" dollars or run the "bid" up in some fashion. :shrug:

[54anickel]

62. Weird, the Indian Rupee is the only currency declining on the chart at

Kitco. :shrug:

[54anickel]

57. America’s privilege, the world’s worry

http://www.economist.com/agenda/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=3372405


CHARLES DE GAULLE, founder of France’s fifth republic, famously resented America’s paramount position in the global economy of the 1960s. The United States, he complained, enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege”. Because its currency, the dollar, served as the world’s reserve asset, America could live beyond its means, unconstrained by the periodic shortages of foreign exchange that haunted other, less privileged nations. Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s spirited finance minister, wants to inherit de Gaulle’s mantle as president of the fifth republic. Though somewhat smaller in stature than the great general, both physically and politically, Mr Sarkozy seems to share his outsized resentment of America’s economic privileges.

Mr Sarkozy has more to envy than de Gaulle ever had. Today’s America lives beyond its means more flagrantly than ever before. Its government will spend about $427 billion more than it raises in taxes this year. The nation as a whole is running a deficit of $571.9 billion on its current account with the rest of the world. These twin deficits, Mr Sarkozy points out, weigh heavily on the dollar. The currency’s fall, interrupted in February, has resumed. On Monday November 8th, it plumbed a new low against the euro of close to $1.30. Only if America restrains its deficits will the markets regain confidence in the dollar, Mr Sarkozy warned. “This is a unanimous message from the Europeans and the International Monetary Fund that we send to the United States.” On Wednesday, the dollar dipped again, this time breaching the $1.30-per-euro mark.

Mr Sarkozy no doubt fears that his American counterparts are quite happy to watch the dollar fall. Their professed commitment to a “strong dollar policy” might disguise a policy of benign neglect. America’s net overseas liabilities amounted to 23% of GDP at the end of last year, close to the record debts it amassed in 1894, according to Ken Rogoff and Maurice Obstfeld of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Crucially, the bulk of these debts are denominated in dollars. Thus America may be sorely tempted to dishonour its dollar debts, not by defaulting on them, but by devaluing them.

The immediate casualties of such a policy would be America’s East Asian creditors. By the end of last year, Asian central banks held $1.89 trillion of foreign reserves, the vast bulk of them in dollars. If these reserves lost value, Asian economies would suffer an almighty capital loss in domestic-currency terms. A recent study by the New York Federal Reserve counted the costs. If the Chinese yuan were to appreciate by 10% against the dollar (and other reserve currencies), China would suffer a capital loss worth almost 3% of GDP, the study found. If the won rose by 10%, South Korea would suffer similarly. The toll would be even greater in Singapore (10% of GDP) and Taiwan (8%).

To avert such an appreciation, Asian central banks would have to amass ever greater holdings of dollars. But this would only expose them to greater capital losses down the road. Alternatively, they might seek to avoid the consequences of a dollar fall, by diversifying into other reserve currencies, such as the euro. But that would only bring the dollar crashing down all the more quickly. In other words, Asian central banks are caught in an awkward dilemma: either they try to break the dollar’s fall, or they try to escape from underneath its collapse.

more...

[JNelson6563]

63. Good article!

Very intersting read (along with so many others posted today!). I often wonder about Asia and its love affair with America-the-cash-incinerator. I watch this closely. I think it is a great threat to the US.

Team Bush is so screwing us. I cannot believe how many are completely blind to it.

:shrug:

Julie

[54anickel]

64. Team Bush is screwing the world! n/t

[UpInArms]

65. Gold futures close at highest level since July 1988

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38303.5777573032-826565265&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- December gold closed at $438.30 an ounce in New York -- the highest closing futures level seen since July 1988. The contract logged a gain of $2.90 for the session and was up $4 for the week. Analysts attributed the rally to the fresh drop in the dollar as well as ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Other metals futures closed higher, with December silver up 1.9 percent, December palladium and January platinum each up more than 2 percent, and December copper up 1.6 percent.

"Ah'm gonna pick up whar ma daddee lef' off" GWB (2000 campaign)

[54anickel]

67. At times like these -

Don't you really miss Frodo? :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

69. um....

[54anickel]

72. BWWWWAAHAHAHAHA! Great pic!

[JNelson6563]

73. Oh you wicked girl!

heh heh Yeah, looks like the ol' flight to quality settin' in. Most distressing for cheer-leading supply siders.

Re-affirming for those of us who have been long on gold for quite a while now.

:toast:

Julie

[54anickel]

80. Sometimes I just can't help myself.

:sheepishgrin:

[54anickel]

66. IS THE US KILLING THE EURO? (Gold-buggy)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wallenwein/nov122004.html

snip>

To provide a life-line to keep the world from falling into that same pit together with the dollar was the very reason for the euro's creation and launch.

We now find ourselves at a juncture where the US (in its efforts to continue to paper-over its excesses and their consequences) absolutely MUST have a lower dollar to even survive. A lower dollar has the twin benefits of (a) lowering the monstrous current account deficit (reflecting trade plus investment-flow imbalances), and (b) propping up the competitiveness of US exporters, hopefully leading to more investment by these firms, and eventually to increased employment.

The Fed and Bush administration know that the euro's ultimate aim is by necessity to slowly attract foreign investors and central banks to the euro and away from the dollar. But they also know that an explosively upward rocketing euro will wreck the Europeans' major economies in a heartbeat. As a result, the US game is to allow the dollar to drop lower - and faster than the Europeans' fragile economies can tolerate!

What the newspapers and financial commentators call a policy of "benign neglect" turns out not to be so benign at all: by pursuing its current strategy, the dollar-establishment is killing three birds with one stone: they get the benefit of (1) higher US export-competitiveness and better economic performance, (2) simultaneously lower EU export competitiveness resulting in economic stagnation, and (3) shifting the entire burden of smoothing out the dollar's forex movements onto the Europeans' backs.

The dollar-faction knows that it has nothing to resist the world's slow but steady, molasses-like run to the dollar-exit doors. It will happen. Nothing can prevent it - except ...

The dollar-faction's best chances at regaining control, they believe, lie in speeding up that very process - way past the ECB's tolerance level - in an attempt to utterly destabilize the euro system, hoping for an eventual complete breakdown.

In essence, the dollar faction is playing a game of "chicken" with the Europeans.

more...

[loudsue]

93. HOLY MOLY, Marketeers!! Does this mean what I THINK it means??

Is this part of the shrub's global "plan"??? To break both Asian and European countries by letting the dollar slide down half-way to hell? Is this part of the "global dominance" plan laid out by the evil people who run the currency train for the US??

How credible IS this author/article?? Could this be what shrub is up to, and why they HAD to steal another election??

Now I know why it's called "die""bold"....they're giving the world a heads up as to what they've got in mind for all of us?

:tinfoilhat:

:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

94. Alex Wallenwein can be a bit over the top at times, but he brings up

some valid points with regards to how the currencies affect each other. His motives he assigns to economic policies sometimes seem a bit tin foilish and gold-buggish. Although these days, I don't discredit any conspiracy theories anymore.

[UpInArms]

70. 2:06 EST numbers and (MUST READ) blather

Dow 10,487.31 +17.47 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,069.06 +7.79 (+0.38%)
S&P 500 1,177.26 +3.78 (+0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.192% -0.062

NYSE Volume 944,858,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,309,353,000

2:00PM: The market is still showing little deviation from current levels despite the dollar hitting new lows against the euro... The greenback has fallen to several record lows versus the euro this week on speculation that the US - with a Bush re-election - will continue to exercise tolerance with the dollar's decline... While this never makes for a positive headline, Briefing.com continues to believe that a weak dollar can be a positive for stocks as it makes US goods cheaper and, in turn, boosts corporate profits... NYSE Adv/Dec 1986/1239, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1427/1534

1:35PM: Stocks continue to trade comfortably above the unchanged mark... As mentioned previously, one reason for today's positive bias has been the sweeping gains in Asia... Tokyo's Nikkei finished 1.6% higher thanks to an early drop in the price of crude oil and some encouraging news found in an otherwise disappointing Q3 GDP report... Personal consumption increased 0.9% in the July-September period, which helped domestic demand add 0.3% to growth in Q3... NYSE Adv/Dec 1969/1234, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1455/1509

Last trade 83.71 Change -0.66 (-0.78%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.71

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-12 13:38:12 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

71. Bwahahaha! Give 'em a point for being honest about it anyway! n/t

[UpInArms]

74. those *Co cheerleaders need to be first in the breadline (dollar at 83.68)

at their neighborhood soup kitchen.

Last trade 83.68 Change -0.69 (-0.82%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.69

Last tick: 2004-11-12 14:04:28 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

75. Eww, new low of 83.65

Last trade 83.66 Change -0.71 (-0.84%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.65
Last tick: 2004-11-12 14:14:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

76. FOMC saw rate hikes keyed to economic data -

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=1100287388-9e32d306-40082

WASHINGTON (AFX) - Federal Reserve policymakers looked ahead to a series of gradual increases in interest rates over the coming months at their September meeting, but also saw a time when rate hikes would not come automatically at each meeting. Policymakers were encouraged by the resiliency of the economic expansion and the continued low expectations for inflation, according to a summary of the Sept. 21 closed door meeting released on Friday. The minutes also indicate that some members perceived downside risks to their central forecast, including the possibility that the end of fiscal stimulus and a desire by consumers to increase savings would lead consumers to pull back on their spending. The minutes provide additional insights into the thinking of policymakers, who raised their overnight lending rate at the Sept. 21 meeting and again at the most recent meeting on Tuesday

"Policymakers continued to see economic conditions as likely to warrant a further reduction in policy accommodation in coming quarters," the summary of the meeting said. "However, in the view of many members, policy actions would need to be increasingly keyed to incoming data." Members noted that the Sept. 21 rate hike to 1.75 percent had brought the real federal funds rate "slightly into positive territory." Some analysts have said the Fed's campaign of rate increases could be divided into two phases, with the first bringing the real rate above zero and the second phase a less-deterministic process of seeking a neutral level for the federal funds rate that would neither help nor hinder growth. Much of the policy discussion at the September meeting revolved around prospects for hiring and capital spending by businesses. Labor market conditions had "improved modestly of late," they said. Business investment "would most likely continue to provide considerable impetus to the overall economic expansion going forward," the minutes say

However, policymakers also worried that the expiration of a tax break for some capital spending at the end of the year "could result in a fairly sharp slowing in investment." In addition, businesses seemed to be overly cautious in their investment decisions, perhaps because of concerns about corporate governance or terrorism

Another worry was the "further widening of the U.S. trade and current account balances," which the committee attributed to "relatively weak" growth in foreign economies. "The committee discussed the significance of wide external deficits and various adjustments that might occur in the process of their return to more sustainable levels," the minutes said without elaboration. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com

[54anickel]

78. And the stock market response - check the 2:30 blather

2:30PM: Stock market trades near its highs of the day, albeit at modestly higher levels and on light volumes... The minutes for the September 21 FOMC meeting were released at the top of the hour, and have effectively confirmed the market's sentiment following Wednesday's rate hike... Fed members said that the economy "regained some vigor" after a lull in late spring and that rates will be "increasingly keyed to incoming data" rather than following a prescribed pace of tightening...

This suggests that the Fed will continue to raise rates as the economy strengthens and labor conditions improve - essentially validating the higher likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike at the December meeting as seen in the Fed funds futures... NYSE Adv/Dec 2015/1235, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1493/1484


Heh-heh, I saw the opposite, that the auto-pilot run of increases has stopped and "fundamentals" will drive any further rate increases. That means the Fed will go back to concentrating on wage inflation as the key in determining future rate hikes - along with other economic reports as well of course. Sound to me they could be just as likely to skip the December hike.

Besides that, since when does the market rally on rising interest rates? :crazy:

[UpInArms]

84. you ask

since when does the market rally on rising interest rates?

I answer

since "up is down" "black is white" and "war is peace" became the accepted reality in the USoA

[54anickel]

85. I forgot (hangs head in shame) Toto, we're not in the USoA anymore -

as I frantically click my heels together saying, "There's no place like home"

[UpInArms]

88. want to play ball?

[54anickel]

92. EEEK!!!

Mommy, make the mean, green market witch just go away!!! She has cast an evil spell on the citizens of the USoA that obviously makes them stoooopid.

[UpInArms]

77. North American weekly vehicle production up 0.3% - Ward's

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38303.6139646065-826569395&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Weekly vehicle production in North America increased 0.3 percent to 307,607 units last week, according to Ward's Automotive Reports. As of this week, North American car and truck production is down 1.5 percent from a year ago to 14.3 million.

[UpInArms]

79. 3:00 EST numbers

Dow 10,519.10 +49.26 (+0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,075.03 +13.76 (+0.67%)
S&P 500 1,180.89 +7.41 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.196% -0.058

NYSE Volume 1,137,916,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,555,887,000

2:30 ET Stock market trades near its highs of the day, albeit at modestly higher levels and on light volumes... The minutes for the September 21 FOMC meeting were released at the top of the hour, and have effectively confirmed the market's sentiment following Wednesday's rate hike... Fed members said that the economy "regained some vigor" after a lull in late spring and that rates will be "increasingly keyed to incoming data" rather than following a prescribed pace of tightening... This suggests that the Fed will continue to raise rates as the economy strengthens and labor conditions improve - essentially validating the higher likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike at the December meeting as seen in the Fed funds futures... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2015/1235. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1493/1484.

dollar

Last trade 83.68 Change -0.69 (-0.82%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.65

Last tick: 2004-11-12 14:32:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

81. adding blather

3:00PM: For the first time today, the breadth of the market is holding a bullish bias on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, as advancers outpace decliners... It appears short covering has prompted the bulk of the buying interest as investors do not want to miss out on a year-end rally... The market has rallied wholeheartedly for three weeks (counting this week) and this has suggested to some that the late summer doldrums are over and the market is ready to look forward to what appears to be a solid holiday shopping season and a strong Q4 earnings period...NYSE Adv/Dec 2237/1023, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1670/1343

[54anickel]

89. Hee-hee, uh yeah......

[TrogL]

82. Loonie Watch

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)


2004-10-12 Tuesday, October 12 0.795229 USD
2004-10-13 Wednesday, October 13 0.791139 USD
2004-10-14 Thursday, October 14 0.798212 USD
2004-10-15 Friday, October 15 0.798722 USD
2004-10-18 Monday, October 18 0.796813 USD
2004-10-19 Tuesday, October 19 0.797321 USD
2004-10-20 Wednesday, October 20 0.804376 USD
2004-10-21 Thursday, October 21 0.804764 USD
2004-10-22 Friday, October 22 0.80782 USD
2004-10-25 Monday, October 25 0.817528 USD
2004-10-26 Tuesday, October 26 0.816593 USD
2004-10-27 Wednesday, October 27 0.816127 USD
2004-10-28 Thursday, October 28 0.820075 USD
2004-10-29 Friday, October 29 0.819068 USD
2004-11-01 Monday, November 1 0.817728 USD
2004-11-02 Tuesday, November 2 0.815461 USD
2004-11-03 Wednesday, November 3 0.825014 USD
2004-11-04 Thursday, November 4 0.829669 USD
2004-11-05 Friday, November 5 0.834655 USD
2004-11-08 Monday, November 8 0.838574 USD
2004-11-09 Tuesday, November 9 0.83682 USD
2004-11-10 Wednesday, November 10 0.834934 USD
2004-11-12 Friday, November 12 0.838997 USD




The loonie gained against all major currencies except the Ozzie, Swiss Franc and Yen. These losses were modest.

There may be resolution in sight for the BSE mad cow crisis. They're actually talking, for once.

People are now genuinely worried about what's happening with the greenback and its effect on price differentials between Canadian and US products. I certainly see network gear taking another hit.

Gas prices at the pumps actually dropped a cent (at least here). This is both good news and bad news. The real question (especially for me, I just rented a house) is going to be heating prices through the winter. This will indirectly affect electricity prices as well for those area using gas-fuelled generators.

[54anickel]

90. Strange combo for the Loonie to loose against...

Ozzie, another commodity currency - although that makes sense after yesterdays glowing reports on growth and employment down-under.

Swiss Franc - flight to quality currency, makes some sense with what's going on with the greenback. It's probably rising against several currencies today.

Yen - I've got no idea why the Loonie would loose to the Yen today. Perhaps some strange intervention plays? :shrug:

[TrogL]

95. clarification

those area using gas-fuelled generators

It's actually a typo - meant "those areas" and what I actually meant was those geographic regions - Edmonton and vicinity comes to mind - that use natural gas or some other fossil fuel to generate electricity.

The majority of Canada relies upon Hydro electric power, either big installations like Niagara Falls, or smaller ones in the Laurentians or Rockies. There's a bit of nuclear but not all that much.

Gas-powered electricity is in the minority and the cost-benefit falls off considerably as soon as you're outside stone throwing range of a gas field.

[54anickel]

83. Intel's next CEO brings different focus (Uh-oh)

My uh-oh is biased, coming from an Engineering background. No offense meant to any MBA DUers.

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story.asp?StoryId=Cqzrdueiendu0neLUDgvSyxbVC3nUzxH0qW

snip>

Otellini steps in as Intel struggles to find its way in a changing market. Technology transitions are forcing it to change how it makes chips. Rival Advanced Micro Devices is scoring big wins. In July, after a series of product delays, recalls and cancellations, Barrett sent an e-mail to all employees telling them Intel's performance was unacceptable.

Otellini ''might just be what the doctor ordered,'' to fix these problems, says equity analyst Rick Whittington at Caris and Co. That's because:

* He's not an engineer. Unlike his predecessors, who all had advanced science degrees, Otellini has an MBA and a background in finance and marketing. That could help him make Intel's business operations as streamlined as its manufacturing plants.

* He's affable. Barrett and Grove are known for their legendary gruffness and office confrontations. ''I may be a bit more verbose,'' Otellini says, laughing. He can be all business but is quick with a story or joke. ''He's got a terrific reputation for organization and managing by consensus,'' Whittington says.

snip>

But there are big challenges ahead. The success of AMD's new chip designs are forcing Intel to play catch-up. Dell, Intel's biggest customer, is considering AMD because ''some of their products have advanced past Intel's,'' Dell CEO Kevin Rollins said Thursday. Rollins later remarked, ''(Otellini) is a good friend, and we're just as pleased as we can be (about his promotion).''

more...

[UpInArms]

86. gack!

it sounds like they are copying the *Co MO

He's not an engineer. Unlike his predecessors, who all had advanced science degrees, Otellini has an MBA and a background in finance and marketing. That could help him make Intel's business operations as streamlined as its manufacturing plants.

* He's affable. Barrett and Grove are known for their legendary gruffness and office confrontations. ''I may be a bit more verbose,'' Otellini says, laughing. He can be all business but is quick with a story or joke. ''He's got a terrific reputation for organization and managing by consensus,'' Whittington says.

it can only mean trouble for Intel - look for some Enron-style looting to occur soon. :eyes:

[54anickel]

87. Yep, didn't want to come right out and say it, but yeah looting, lying,

covering up the real issues with the chips, sort of like the trouble Merck is seeing these days. It's all creative accounting and fancy marketing from here on in.

Again, JMHO with an engineering bias, no offense to the MBAs.

[54anickel]

91. Chinese, Brazilian leaders pledge to promote bilateral cooperation

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/13/content_2212095.htm

BRASILIA, Nov. 12 (Xinhuanet) -- Visiting Chinese President Hu Jintao and his Brazilian counterpart Luis Inacio Lula da Silva pledged Friday that China and Brazil will make joint efforts for expanding bilateral cooperation.

During their talks in the Brazilian capital of Brasilia, President Lula said that relations between China and Brazil have developed steadily in recent years and bilateral cooperation in the fields of politics, economy, trade, culture and international affairs has been fruitful.

He expressed his hope that the Sino-Brazilian strategic partnership would be strengthened further.

The Brazilian leader reaffirmed that his country will firmly maintain the one-China policy.

snip>

The Chinese president is on a state visit to Brazil, the first leg of his four-nation Latin-American trip. He will also visit Argentina, Chile and Cuba, and attend the Economic Leaders' Meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) slated forNovember 20-21 in Santiago.

more...

[54anickel]

96. Closing "stuff". The buck has clawed its way back to 83.76

Dow 10,539.01 +69.17 (+0.66%)
Nasdaq 2,085.34 +24.07 (+1.17%)
S&P 500 1,184.17 +10.69 (+0.91%)
10-yr Bond 4.2% -0.054
30-yr Bond 4.912% -0.053
NYSE Volume 1,535,892,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,011,332,000

Close:The bulls came out in full force toward the close of trading to close the indices on a positive note for the third consecutive week... The morning began mixed but strength in overseas markets and a better than expected October Retail Sales report of +0.2% (consensus 0.1%) - ex-auto of +0.9% (consensus was 0.6%) - fueled early buying interest and helped dispel worries about a lackluster holiday season...
Technology garnered the most gains on the day, driven by Dell (DELL 40.47 +3.22) after the PC maker reported Q3 results in line with analysts' expectations and issued upbeat comments about declining component prices... Semiconductor, networking, disk drive, and software all joined the technology buying drive, and were accompanied by several blue chip sectors such as energy, retail, homebuilding, basic material, telecom service, and utility...The market's ability to sustain its gains - and work through several resistance levels - brought more buyers off the sidelines in the afternoon and set the major indices up for their 0.7-1.2% finish... The September 21 FOMC meeting minutes were also released, confirming the market's sentiment following Wednesday's rate hike...

Policy makers said that the economy "regained some vigor" and that rates will be "increasingly keyed to incoming data" rather than following a prescribed pace of tightening... In other economic news, preliminary November Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 95.5 (consensus was 93.0) while September Business Inventories came in lower than expected at 0.1%...NYSE Adv/Dec 2443/875, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1885/1172

3:30PM : Sellers have been a reluctant bunch during the last hour of trading, with much of the spark coming from technology... Next week's earnings calendar, however, is dominated by retailers, with bellwethers Home Depot (HD 43.20 +0.43) and Wal-Mart (WMT 56.87 +0.25) both reporting Q3 results Tuesday morning... Another notable mention is semiconductor capital equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT 16.13 +0.05), which is expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.26 per share late on Wednesday...

Applied Materials, as a market leader, should add some color on an industry trying to recover from excess capacity... Walt Disney (DIS 26.94 +0.35) wraps up the week Thursday after the bell... NYSE Adv/Dec 2253/995, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1702/1318

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2477 (71%) 1885 (58%)
Declines 849 (24%) 1172 (36%)
Unchanged 153 (4%) 177 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 1178 (76%) 1351 (67%)
Down Vol* 338 (22%) 625 (31%)
Unch. Vol* 19 (1%) 31 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 494 232
New Lo's 17 36



And the buck - whoops, guess I spoke too soon

Last trade 83.74 Change -0.67 (-0.79%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 15:38

Open 84.08 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.65

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: 2004-11-12 16:15:46 ET
30-min delayed quote.


Have a great weekend everyone. :hi:

[UpInArms]

98. buck ends week at 83.69

Last trade 83.69 Change -0.67 (-0.79%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 17:14

Open 84.26 Previous Close 84.37

High 84.36 Low 83.65

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-12 17:14:00 ET
30-min delayed quote.