Bush Has One-Point Lead on Kerry - Reuters Poll ( Zogby)

[OKNancy]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&e=1&u=/nm/20041101/pl_nm/election_poll_monday_dc


Bush Has One-Point Lead on Kerry - Reuters Poll


By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) edged into a one-point national lead over Democratic Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) one day before a cliffhanger presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Monday

[OKNancy]

1. Story says we have Florida and Pennsylvania

Bush ahead in Ohio.

Who knows?? Gallup says we are 4 down in Penn and winning Ohio.

Zogby, to his credit, says that if young voters are more than 12% of the vote, then Kerry wins.

[cubsfan forever]

3. We only need OH or Florida GOTV

Professor 2

[benburch]

2. This means we win.

Undecided voters break 2:1 for the challenger. Perhaps even more this time. Bush needed to by up by three points today to stand a chance.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. Add in cell phone users and newly registered and....

it won't even be close.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x950050

[PATRICK]

4. Reuters was more on the mark last time

Because even with GOTV favoring Dems, Gore did not have what we will this Tuesday with new voters, youth etc. etc. etc.

This is still consistent with a Kerry substantial win. Too bad you need another fine art to interpret the interpreters. It is all too shoddy.

[Tesibria]

5. altho it's all with MoE -- what the report DOESN'T SAY

is that the "gap" between Bush and Kerry actually DECREASED from yesterday -- if you stop rounding the numbers

_______31st - N1st
Bush - 46.2 - 46.4
Kerry - 45.6 - 45.9
Diff - 00.6 - 00.5


Again - we're talking a few votes -- but the TREND continues to be Kerry

[Mr_Spock]

6. OMG - they are rounding that to 1 point?

Hardly seems worth it with the MOE.

[fugop]

7. Confused

I thought the story had Bush at 48. How do you round 46.4 up to 48? Haven't had coffee yet, so I might just be missing something. Help?

[sonicx]

12. The numbers that Tesibria gave are without leaners, I think

the numbers in the reuters story have leaners.

[Tesibria]

15. Right -- as usual -- the media "picks and chooses" -- and

then compares "in-comparable" numbers to indicate a trend.

i.e. comparing yesterdays regular number to today's leaner number ....

while ALL the polls are all over the place -- that's why I stick to comparing apples to apples (Zogby) and oranges to oranges (Rasmussen) -- and use the same "type" of numbers each day.

[Snivi Yllom]

8. it's tied

so lets win this thing

[Media_Lies_Daily]

10. Tied? Yeah, right. Take a closer look at how they're presenting....

...their findings.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

9. Right. When do they start polling the Democrats?

[sonicx]

11. "young voters would account for 12 percent of the total vote"

undersampled. in 2000, 18-29 made up 17% of voters.

[ClintonTyree]

13. This is the national poll.......................

the real story is in the swing states, this is where Kerry will clean *'s clock.