Young Mobile Voters Pick Kerry Over Bush, 55% to 40% (CELL PHONE POLL!!)

[ruggerson]

Young Mobile Voters Pick Kerry Over Bush, 55% to 40%, Rock the Vote/Zogby Poll Reveals: National Text-Message Poll Breaks New Ground

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=919

<snip>
Polling firm Zogby International and partner Rock the Vote found Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leading President Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters in their first joint Rock the Vote Mobile political poll, conducted exclusively on mobile phones October 27 through 30, 2004. Independent Ralph Nader received 1.6%, while 4% remain undecided in the survey of 6,039 likely voters.

<snip>

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. Boom.

There it is.

[metisnation]

18. show this group this video

http://mosh.eminem.com/video/


almost anyone in that age group will get it after that.

[Demeter]

2. That's Not Good Enough!

It should be more on the order of 70%.

[splat]

7. gop kids have money for text messaging phones n/t

[Rose Siding]

15. If they are in the right states it will be

That's a nat'l poll.

[MattNC]

56. it's believable

hell, more of my friends support W than Kerry.

[w4rma]

3. “The results of this text-message poll mirror what we’re seeing in our …

… more conventional polls,” said John Zogby, CEO and president of Utica, N.Y.-based Zogby International. “Among 18-29 year-olds, Kerry leads the President by 14 points—55% to 41% in our current daily tracking poll—virtually identical to these results.

[mia]

6. Also hispanics (34%) use cell phones for instant messaging,

compared with just 9% of those in the general online population.


"The more the Latino voter turnout grows by Nov. 2, the greater the likelihood the Kerry-Edwards ticket will defeat Bush-Cheney and the extreme right-wing majority in Congress. Latinos are expected to favor Kerry at a 60–75 percent rate. Already the increase in Latino turnout is projected as at least 1 million and could reach close to 2 million, says the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project. The group projects 9.5 million Latino registered voters, a 2 million increase over 2000.

This tremendous gain for the Democrats is not reflected in the polls, which are based on likely voters...."

[goforit]

13. God, I pray to the lord you're right!!!....Buena Suerte!!!!

Love your cartoon!!!!

I'll have this image on nov. 2nd all day!!!!

[Ganja Ninja]

61. Blacks, Poor People and College Students are

most likely to be cell only too. They will vote in the majority for Kerry. It's a large percentage that hasn't been included in the major polls.

I think I'm sensing landslide here.

[dennis4868]

4. GAME. SET. MATCH!

:bounce:

[Anarcho-Socialist]

5. Kick!

:kick:

[modrepub]

8. If this tips the election

to Kerry it would be the first time the young have swayed an election. Unfortunately, my generation (X)was very apathetic. We lost any clout with politicians and one result was we lost much of our student loan benefits. Maybe the echo boomers will reverse this trend and get some attention. Good luck to all of you and GO VOTE!!!

[Orangepeel]

17. also, there just weren't that many of us, comparatively

apathetic, too, maybe, although I think cynical is more accurate.

[Tesibria]

9. i LUV it!!!! nt

[devinsgram]

10. Here's our winner then. Kerry!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Which is what we have been saying all along.

[goforit]

11. Make your vote count!...the new generation to change the WORLD!!!

:bounce:

[Zynx]

12. That's worth an extra couple points in the polls which gives us our margin

of victory of anywhere between two and three points.

[Lorien]

14. More and more people are switching to mobile only

and all my mobile only friends (older than 29) are voting KERRY!

[Lady Effingbroke]

16. Yup! I'm a cell phone only 34 y.o. who voted Kerry!

KERRY BY A LANDSLIDE!!!

[southlandshari]

35. Same here

Definitely out of the 18-29 year-old age range myself, and my family of three went cellular-only about a year ago for financial reasons. I know four other families in our age range (mid-30's to late 40's) that have done the same, and every adult in every one of our families is voting for Kerry-Edwards!

[Blue_Roses]

55. We're a mobile only family and we over 40

how ya like them apples!:bounce:

[UL_Approved]

19. Very bad timing

Of all the terms to have an election with a bad war, they picked the one with the grandchildren of the Baby Boomers. We will see how these kids today like the idea of becoming cannon fodder. I don't think most do.

[Lady Effingbroke]

20. I agree 100%.

This war not only involves the Baby Boomers (many of them Vietnam vets called once again to serve in Iraq through the National Guard and IRR), but also the Boomers' children and grandchildren, who are now coming of military age and often serving next to them (Boomers). Any repercussions from disastrous decisions are thus compounded, as the common Boomer reaction is "not AGAIN, and now this war involves not only me but my children and/or grandchildren."

[RawMaterials]

47. its not the grandchildren of the baby boomer's

Its the children. Look up what an echo boomer is.

the age ranges from 1977-1994 these are the children of the babyboomers.

babybooomers are the ones born after ww2.

most of the voters in this poll 18-29 are in between ether older echo boomer's, or realy young gen-x-er's

I was born in 1979 so i kind of fit right in the middle of all this.

All semantics aside I agree 18-29 year olds should be afraid of this war, and bush.

actually 18-35 male and female should be afraid, because if there going to reinstate the draft there going to push the draft-able age up to 35. they have already talked about it. not necessarily to fight in Iraq but a " service draft" witch means they could draft computer engineers to go work in the government.

[MarkTwain]

21. Christ, why are there EVEN forty percent...

... in that poll? Allowing for the functionally brain dead in any statistical sample, Bush should be, at best, at fifteen to twenty percent in that poll - thirty tops.

[DuaneBidoux]

22. Great: But the question: Will They Vote?

[Zorra]

26. Oh, yes. They will vote. They don't want to get drafted and fight in a

senseless war begun for no reason by an evil, lying lunatic.

[DuaneBidoux]

29. Okay, I believe you.

[awgoodkitty]

33. I love that picture!!!!

I sent it my friends as a Halloween email. Apart from a photo of *, that's the scariest thing I've seen all day.

THANKS!!!!!!

[tsuki]

57. Yes,

my echoboomers are voting.

[lojasmo]

62. Yes they will

Respondants claimed 93% likelyhood of voting

2% knew they wouldn't vote

5% stated they "might not"

[Lone_Star_Dem]

23. I buy that

That is the main demographic that I have been working on. My Daughter is 17 and she and I have worked with the GOTV via UT Austin. These young people are not pleased with our President.

[prof_science]

24. 40?

40 may seem high, and I agree, I think it may be, BUT, a 60-40 split is really really huge. Not Obama/Keyes huge, but good news nonetheless.

There was a Rock the Vote event here at the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus a few weeks ago, and I was surprised to see that the Repugs had even bothered to set up a stand. But it was heartening to see the throngs of people being registered at the Kerry/Edwards booth and taking signs and campaign lit, and the complete lack of anybody at the Bush booth. My informal visual poll taken there showed a 95-5 split. And if they all vote, I mean, if we all vote, we can conceivably determine the outcome here in WI.

All about turnout, as always, I guess...

[Glenmar]

31. Turnout is the key!

The repugs have always been vigilant in seeing that their college-age student has an absentee ballot & by returning it on time; more so than the Democrats in my county. But, the Rock the Vote and other organized efforts this year toward this age group will make the difference. We must GOTV!!!!!!!!! We need John Kerry for this country's sake!

[karlrschneider]

36. I think you have hit on a very salient point...and Welcome to DU!

:toast:

[NJCher]

25. reaction of the brightest

I work with honors students at a technical university in the Democratic state of NJ. The kind of reaction you get when mentioning bush is laughter. I guess they think he's a buffoon; I've never asked.




Cher

[johnstone]

27. Example of the Brainwashed

I go to a Christian University in CA and I am downright embarrassed to say that in a recent mock election * won 140 to 13.

Luckily most of these kids that vote for * won't actually vote, but it makes me very sad that my school is failing to properly prepare these kids to think for themselves instead of having their parents and pastors tell them what to do.

I guess this answers where the 40% comes from.

I'm glad to see that the majority of my peers around the nation think for themselves.

Can't wait to see that bumbling moron lose!

[Pathwalker]

30. Welcome to DU, johnstone!

n/t

[southlandshari]

37. Welcome to DU, Johnstone!

Keep the faith - it can be tough to be an independent thinker when you live with lemmings. Those of us from the Deep South can empathize with your conservative campus experience...

[intheflow]

42. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[donco6]

28. Now if they'll just vote. eom

[Endangered Specie]

32. Keep in mind that many cells dont have text messaging...

and there are multiple text msg services, Im willing to bet that the poorer, more democratic voting students dont have that feature.

[d_b]

34. Nice.

[0007]

38. Far Out! Looking better with each passing hour!

 Vote as if your life depended on it, because it does.

Call 866 687-8683
If Poll Workers refuse you to vote for any reason
If there is a late opening or early closing of a polling place.
If your polling place runs out of ballots or has an incorrect ballot
If you experience poll worker insensitivity or discrimination in the voting process

The civil rights community have set up a toll-free Election Day hotline. This line is
staffed now and, in addition to logging your complaint, the civil rights organizations have law
students and attorneys who can provide assistance on Election Day.

the hotline number is
866 687-8683
202 457-0473 fax

When you call the hotline, be prepared to give your name, telephone number, and note as many
details as possible, including the names of the people who are involved.

[fortyfeetunder]

39. There is a choice.

Young people, you are faced with these distressing statistics, just to name a few:

**Reduced (or eliminated) educational benefits
**Outsourced entry level jobs
**Reduced military benefits
**Limited health care options
**Reduced civil rights regardless of gender, ethnicity, or sexual orientation
**Exponentially increasing national debt
**Degraded labor laws
**Lack of a comprehensive energy conservation policy
**Degraded environmental protection
**Although the Pentagon is denying (and I equate their denying with lying), there will be a draft, with very few exemptions for peons.

So if you want four more years of the same, don't vote or vote Bush/Cheney. (and for that matter, vote Nader, because I doubt he is going to be that effective!)

If you want change, vote Kerry/Edwards

[realcountrymusic]

40. As a college teacher

I've had this sense for the last couple of months.

My students, 18-22 for the most part, are going to vote in record numbers. They overwhelmingly support Kerry (granted this is a liberal Northeastern scene). And many have only cell phones.

I took a risk and played the eminem Mosh video in class on Tuesday -- I didn'tsay I endorsed any message other than the overarching one to vote. (luckily, it is a course that focuses on music and politics, so I could claim to have a leigitimate interest in analyzing the video as a text, which we did!) I needn't have worried. In a class of 40, every single one was blown away.

RCM

[txindy]

41. The old polling methodologies are dinosaurs and this poll is proof of that

We keep hearing how the current polling methods have proven effective for the last 50 years, but that refuses to take into account how the technology has changed in that time. This is what I've been expecting all along. Thanks for sharing this information! I can't wait to hear more reports of these new polling methods after the election. :toast:

[drdtroit]

50. "The old polling methodologies are dinosaurs"

I've been saying this for months. So are Bush and the rest of his "manifest destiny" minded cabal. Can't you just hear the last desperate wails of Cheney as he sinks deeper and deeper into the tar pit? The harder they struggle with their outdated view of global realities the deeper they sink and on Nov 2 they will elicit that last bubble of air before disappearing forever under the crude effluvium of their own desires.

[txindy]

53. Well said.

Now, that's a great visual! :toast:

[davepc]

43. donsent mean a thing

unless they goto the polls and VOTE.

[symphony]

45. Of course they will

get out and vote. I think we often underestimate our young people. They are not apathetic and lazy. And this year, they realize how much is at stake.

We need to give the young people of this country more credit.



President Kerry, :yourock:

[symphony]

44. times are changing

shiver in your pants, you evil shrub empire...

Kerry by a landslide!!!


P.S. My 9 y.o. son is a huge Kerry fanatic. He told me that if he were to ever get a chance to shake Kerry's hand, he will never wash his hand for the rest of his life (and he meant it).


President Kerry, :yourock:

[DaveSZ]

46. "Let my people vote!"

Sorry for the Moses shtick.

Yes we WILL vote, and yes I will be in Lac Cruces on Tues getting people to the polls.

There is no other place I'd rather be than on the front lines, so that's why I voted early.

edit- Las Cruces

[symphony]

48. Actually, that was a pretty good line

don't apologize!

Shrubby truly looks like the evil pharaoh /except for the loincloth :D/! He and his henchmen are trying to prevent many people /see FL, OH, etc., etc./from voting.

So, *, "Let my people vote!"

[JohnnyCougar]

49. Actually, this means nothing. Sorry for the bad news.

Zogby says that telephone polled voters of the same age (18-27) also favor Kerry 55% to 41%. Zogby's polls are already weighted to specific age groups, and this shows that there is no difference between cell phone users and landline users for the same age group. This won't give Kerry any advantage in the polls, I'm sorry to say.

All this means is GOTV will save us, and nothing more.

[joshcryer]

Wow! Zogby finally did what we were wanting.

And we got exactly what we knew we'd get. The more technically inclined individuals are going to vote Kerry.

[joshcryer]

51. oops, d/p

[DainBramaged]

52. Margin of error was only 1.2%, amazing

[Sinnerman]

54. Georgia Cell Phone Poll shows Kerry Up 27 Points

[NCArtist33]

58. The hidden element

Hi all
It's great to finally join this awesome community.
Just a few quick thoughts...
The youth and minority vote are going to decide this election, two groups that turned out dismally (fraud or no) in '00.
The polling thus far has not included cell phone users, and that, my friends, is what is going to make the spinmeisters lose their collective minds come Tuesday evening.
Expect a blowout favoring Kerry/Edwards due to these underreported factors, a couple of which being:
1)Those under 30 are terrified of being drafted, should the unelected fraud eke out another Faux News "victory."
2)While fundamentalist-leaning American minorities may have a real problem with same-sex marriage, it is not by any stretch the most relevant issue confronting them today, even though that point is the freepers' sole excuse for them to cast an anti-Kerry vote. It's simply not enough.
Best to you all, and I look forward to celebrating with you Tuesday evening.

[NCArtist33]

59. An important link

And, by the way, you won't regret following this link:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/31/182714/40

[Ganja Ninja]

60. This could be what puts Kerry over the top in Florida.

A lot of people young and old are cell only but especially the young and especially college students. Nation wide it's about 6 percent. I don't know what the percentage of college age voters is in this state but even if they only go about 60% for Kerry it would be bad news for Bush.