Bush erases Kerry's lead in Pa. poll (Quinnipiac Bush 49 Kerry 47)

[RamboLiberal]

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04302/403166.stm

President Bush has erased Sen. John Kerry's narrow lead in Pennsylvania only days before Tuesday's election, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

Among likely voters, including people who have made up their minds or are leaning toward one candidate, Bush was backed by 49 percent compared with 47 percent for Kerry, according to the telephone survey of 909 voters conducted between Friday and Tuesday. Four percent were undecided.

The latest numbers reflected a tightening of the race since the last Quinnipiac poll, taken in mid-October, which showed Democrat Kerry taking a slight lead -- 51 percent to the Republican incumbent's 46 percent.

"Bush has done a better job in the last week of firming up his base, Republicans and men, while taking away some women voters from Kerry," said Clay F. Richards of the university's polling institute. "Women are the key in this race and they are torn between their concerns about terrorism, which means voting for Bush, and worries about the economy, which means voting for Kerry."

<snip>

The poll carries a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

[takumi]

1. Don't Believe it!

[aquart]

2. MOE?

[JusticeForAll]

15. MOE

equals one divided by the square root of number of respondents.

1/sqrt(909)= .033

3.3% in this case

[Qutzupalotl]

3. Other polls disagree

Quinnipiac=nobody gives a shit

[Media_Lies_Daily]

4. Will you please stop posting crap from this poll??

[Viking12]

9. Exactly. They continue to prodcue the largest outliers. Crap. n/t

[RamboLiberal]

10. Don't shoot the messenger - it's on the breaking news of Pgh PG

so I posted it.

Personally I don't believe it cause I'm seeing mostly Kerry ads and few Bush ads in Pittsburgh area. But I'm also seeing a lot of Bush/Cheney signs outside Pittsburgh outnumbering Kerry/Edwards.

I'm also hearing a lot of staunch Bush support phone banking in Westmoreland county.

Hey, I'll stay worrried till the vote comes in Tuesday night!

[Zorra]

25. Thanks so much for the news! Now I feel soooo much better.

:eyes:
Not.

[Worst Username Ever]

5. 51 to 46? We'll still have it. GOTV.

[Ducks In A Row]

6. let bush supporters believe

maybe they'll stop harrassing voters at the polls

[CarolynEC]

7. Two-point fluctuations are statistically meaningless.

No one is "leading" by 2 points in a survey where the margin of error is 3.5 points.

I swear, as a former journalist, I'm beginning to think there needs to be a licensing system for the profession. In order to be a practicing journalist, you should need X amount of hours of coursework in statistics, civics, logic and history. At a minimum.

[liberalitch]

8. before this moment i had NEVER heard of...

The Quinnipiac University poll.
So I ain't ascared.... but then I ain't never ascared.

[swag]

11. Once again, a major outlier, just like in NJ - from www.mydd.com

see www.mydd.com

Pennsylvania
	Kerry	  Bush
Zogby	49	45
SUSA	53	45
RR	50	46
ARG	50	47
MC	49	44
Mean	50.2	45.4
NO on Oregon Amendment 36!

[RamboLiberal]

13. Thanks - hey I'm still learning which are the good ones which the bad

but I'll still be nervous about this till voting done. I think Philly & Pittsburgh areas will carry PA, but still in a lot of the rural counties, PA more resembles Alabama!

[swag]

17. It's really hard to tell, for me anyway.

And the polls are just going to get worse and noisier over the weekend.

Thanks for posting, though. I enjoy getting all of the polls.

[cubsfan forever]

28. Indeed, QU poll is BS! n/t

Professor 2

[featherman]

12. Nah ... disregard

not a fan of Quinnipiac after checking their wacky 2000 numbers

[The_Casual_Observer]

14. Quinnipiac showed arnold losing.

I have been waiting for these kind of bullshit results from them.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

16. Quinipiac also had Former Governor Rowland tied with Bill Curry in 02'

and the CORRUPT ROWLAND won by 11 points!!! :-(

Also, they have Kerry under 50% here in CT. Bull!!!

Quinipiac is about as reliable of a poll as the Ford Pinto was a car!

[BootinUp]

19. The Pinto was reliable...

at exploding in certain rear impact collisions, lol.

[Sinnerman]

18. That better be a lie...

There's no way Bushco caught Kerry in PA

[lancdem]

20. Among registered voters, it's 45 Kerry, 44 Bush

There's too much disparity in Bush's share of the vote between the RV and LV samples. Bush is not going to win PA.

[Zynx]

21. Quinnipiac is junk. Look at how much they have Kerry leading among Indies.

How could he possibly not have a huge lead with a number like that?

[Redleg]

22. How is that possible? The news has been all bad for Bush.

I don't buy it.

[LSK]

23. apparently they didnt poll anyone in philly

POLLS ARE BULLSHIT !!!

repeat 5 times and get a good nights sleep

[PCIntern]

24. Two words

Bull shit.

It's not worth repeating the reasons why we are going for Kerry by a wide margin. Trust me...

[modrepub]

26. We'll see

Strange reversal. Hard to believe when Dems managed to add almost 500,000 new voters to their ranks in PA. Like everyone says, they have to show up and vote to make this count. One downer, looks like rain next Tuesday in PA. Could suppress turnout...

[Gavinicus]

27. This poll ignored the undecideds

The poll counted "likely voters" who have "made up their minds" or are "leaning toward one candidate." Each of these qualifiers favors Bush. The methodology behind determining a likely voter favors republicans generally and ignores the high turnout likely in this election. Ignoring the undecideds helps Bush because they will likely break for Kerry by about 2:1. And there is no indication of what additional massaging the pollster did. Pennsylvania is not close, but let them report it so. It will only galvanize the Dems that much more.

[Az_lefty]

29. sure, and the cards are going to win the series........

[chuckhoward]

30. Pennsylvania was, is ...

...and will remain BLUE!!! Take it to the bank.

[Shakespeare]

31. 100,000-120,000 attend Kerry rally in Philly.

That poll is bullshit.

[Snivi Yllom]

32. bs

Not buying it. Kerry is up at least 3.

[fujiyama]

33. Bullshit

Their own fuckin poll showed Bush behind by 5 about a week ago.

And No, I don't believe NJ is in play either. What is wrong with Q Pac polls?

[dave123williams]

34. Quinnipiac had Lazio and Hillary Clinton 50/50 the day before the election

and she won by 17 points. Don't you believe this.

[robbedvoter]

35. and found a way to blame Clinton one more time - they are obsessed

with the Clintons! Were polling Hillary vs Giuliani after 911 and her voting for war, in spite the fact that none was running for anything