Zogby,Oct 22, Kerry within 2% !

[Ohio rules]

Kerry is at 45% with 6% undecided.
That would put him over the top !
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=902

[Mz Pip]

1. They were tied

last week. Kerry has to have some forward movement real fast.

I'd really like to see a couple of polls showing him ahead going into election day.

MzPip
:dem:

[fjc]

9. I agree. He has yet to have a lead in the stretch here.

That makes me very uncomfortable.

[Sinnerman]

13. 2% is Nothing it equates to approx. 2 Million Voters

It's within the margin of Error.

Kerry/Edwards 2004

[brooklynite]

25. Not necessarily

Analysts generally believe Bush needs a lead of 4-5 % going in to election day to offset the hisotircal tendancy of undecided voters to break for the challenger at the last minute.

[henslee]

2. Like he said, da boi's a klosuh!

[kanrok]

3. Yep. your math would be correct if Kerry took all of the undecideds

But he won't. At 45%, even if he takes 2/3 of them, he still loses slightly in the national poll.

[dolstein]

4. Undecideds put Kerry over the top ONLY if they show up to vote

and only if they all end up voting for Kerry. Neither is going to happen. Some undecided voters won't show up. Some will end up voting for Bush or for a third party candidate.

[malatesta1137]

5. you are all assuming the votes will be counted

properly. It will NOT happen.

[Sinnerman]

14. I AGREE

Voting irregularities only make up nation wide approx 500,000 votes not enough to sway an election voter turn out is key. If we all do our duty Kerry Wins Period.

[cubsfan forever]

24. My goodness, a 1000+ post

Freeper! You continue stating repug "talking points." Last week Zogby said categorically that Kerry will win. He is shrewd, though. People want this election to be close. If we vote, it won't be.

Professor 2

[delhurgo]

6. This seems like sort of bad news to me.

Zogby says, if you read the whole thing, that Bush for the first time has a positive re-elect number, just by one point though - 49 to 48. But he wonders from that if undecideds are breaking for Bush. It just looks real close to me, but he's the expert.

[DeepModem Mom]

7. It was good polling for Bush, bad for us -- according to Zogby's...

analysis.

[fjc]

8. Yes, but look at how these numbers nearly mirror 2000

Could it be that we'll have 2000 all over again, but in reverse?

[Sinnerman]

16. We Will Win ...... Zogby numbers were the closest in 2000

Don't pay attention to CNN/GALLOP They were over 4 points off. The only 2 polls that have any credibility are Zogby & Rasmussen.

Kerry/Edwards 04'

[fugop]

10. Days ago ...

Wasn't there some speech of Zogby's just days ago predicting a Kerry win? Seriously, all the polls, even Zogby's, are up and down every day. One good day for Bush means nothing in the grand scheme. A single day is just that. Give it a few days.

Or don't look at all, because as always, polls mean nothing. Only one poll counts. Nov. 2.

[BenDavid]

11. Excuse me, but

if you were the President and you were trailing in states you won in 2000 and you looked at national polls that have more republicans than democrats and independents in the sampling and all you could do is be one to two points ahead and one to four behind in others, would you not be worried? Well hell yes you would and this exactly what bush is, WORRIED!!! I will say again as I have said sicne Kerry V Bush. It will be easier for Kerry to hold all the blue states that gore won in 2000 then it will be for bush to hold all the red.... all kerry has to do is hold all the blue and pick up oh say Ohio and he will and bush can win florida by a million but the presidency is still Kerry's. I predict a Kerry win.....

[dennis4868]

12. Does Zogby...

sample more repubs than Dems? I dont think so.

[Sinnerman]

17. No... LV (Likely Voters is 50/50

Polls like all MaJors - abc,cbc,nbc. Newsweek, AP, Faux, week to week there sampling are inflated say 55/45 either way. Example the Time Poll which shows Bush Wacker up 5 points actually had more republicans in that poll like 60/40

[AmerDem]

15. I'd like to know who the hell these 6% undecided are

They have to be so far removed from anything resembling reality.

[barb162]

18. I know a very shallow woman who wants to vote for Powell

she spends all her time at the gym and getting face lifts too

[AmerDem]

20. Powell?

I think it's time she got a grip.

[barb162]

29. Tell me. I told her Powell was nothing but a Bush asskiss

and how could she even think of voting for someone who supports or goes along with whatever Bush wants. But she doesn't like the shrubster or Kerry. Well, maybe one of these days before the election she will have a flash, but I doubt it. She is more worried about her wrinkles and abs than how many people are dying in Iraq daily.

[Sinnerman]

19. I agree..........

If anybody hasn't made up there mind yet they must be from Canada

[Spazito]

22. Canadians made up their minds long ago!

ABB! If you check the Canadian polls, we say what bush was right from the get-go. Don't forget it was Canadians that called him moron officially!

[napi21]

21. You're assuming those polled are telling the truth!

I have no way of knowing this, but I think it's possible that some people just think it's fun to be "part of the undecideds". They're getting all the attention, and they're loving it!

I doubt there are any really undecided voters anymore. I think there are some on both sides who are marginal supporters, and could change their mind at the last minute though.

[undercover_brother]

23. http://www.electoral-vote.comYou are following the wrong stats

http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Bush is widening his lead in the Red States. Who cares. Let him clean house in Texas.

[CTyankee]

26. State of Texas

I was born there and mercifully escaped. I know what kind of denial these Texans can be in. Thank God for Molly Ivins and her ilk! We don't really know what brown Texas is going to vote for!

[Clinton Crusader]

27. I trust Zogby and undecideds usually break for challenger 2:1

I dont want to get ahead of myself, cause it's still 10 days away, but Im nervously confident

:kick:

[Carolab]

28. Zogby in the New Yorker just out

says he HATES Bush and said the "Oz" question is the one he looks to. On that question, Gore and Bush broke even in 2000. In 2004, Kerry (the "tin man") leads by 10 points.