Bush and Kerry Deadlock Among Likely Voters
By JOHN HARWOOD
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 20, 2004
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A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, which has the two men tied at 48% apiece among likely voters, indicates Mr. Kerry's solid debate performances have helped him inch toward key objectives: building voter confidence in his ability to be commander in chief; narrowing the gap with President Bush on handling terrorism; and riding a powerful edge on the twin domestic concerns of jobs and health care. In the 12 swing states where electoral votes will likely prove decisive, he leads Mr. Bush by six percentage points.
The survey also shows President Bush making headway on crucial goals. The Republican incumbent has punched through with his homestretch message of ultimate success in Iraq, exploited his advantage over Mr. Kerry on strength, consistency and likability, and pushed his approval rating up to 49% from 47% last month, nearly reaching the 50% threshold at which incumbents usually survive.
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Indeed, it remains a race so stubbornly tight that even meticulous opinion polling will have trouble identifying a decisive shift. The Journal/NBC poll of 1,004 registered voters, conducted Oct. 16-18, has a 3.1-percentage-point margin of error that exceeds Mr. Bush's 48%-46% edge. The error margin among the slightly smaller group of likely voters is 3.4 percentage points; among the still-smaller subset of respondents from the 12 swing states, it is 6.2 percentage points.
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The Kerry campaign had hoped to begin pulling ahead with their candidate's well-reviewed performances in three debates with Mr. Bush. And, in fact, the Journal/NBC poll shows that Mr. Kerry benefited handsomely: 33% of voters said the debates made them more likely to back the Democratic candidate, compared with 17% who said the same of Mr. Bush. That dwarfs the seven-percentage-point edge Mr. Bush enjoyed over Al Gore after their 2000 debates, which helped the then-Texas governor win the White House. In another measure of momentum for the Democratic challenger, 38% of voters say they have read or heard something favorable about Mr. Kerry during the past couple of weeks, compared with 31% who say that of the incumbent.
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Moreover, the president's repeated invocations of progress in Iraq appear to be boosting optimism, notwithstanding continued violence there; a 47%-40% plurality predicts the Iraq engagement will end in victory rather than defeat. So have his warnings of the risk of a potential Kerry administration. By 29%-16%, voters say terrorists are more likely to strike if Mr. Kerry were elected; by 30%-20%, voters say a Bush victory would make another terror strike here less likely.
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Write to John Harwood at john.harwood@wsj.com
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