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CBSNYTIMES: Bush 47%-Kerry 47%

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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 05:31 PM
Original message
CBSNYTIMES: Bush 47%-Kerry 47%
Edited on Mon Oct-04-04 05:41 PM by bluestateguy
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/04/politics/main647260.shtml

Sen. John Kerry's debate performance appears to have returned the presidential campaign to a dead heat and eroded some of President Bush's advantages on national security issues, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll.

Three out of five registered voters surveyed said they believe Kerry won the Sept. 30 debate in Miami, compared to 23 percent who think Mr. Bush prevailed.

Kerry's performance helped boost the Democratic ticket five points to a 47-47 percent tie with the Bush/Cheney team, erasing a lead that the Republicans held for a month. One percent of likely voters surveyed backed Ralph Nader.

The poll also points to substantial worries on U.S. policy in Iraq — a linchpin issue for both candidates — but widespread doubt that either man has a plan to deal with the continuing violence there.

more
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David Zephyr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
1. Link?
Is there a link yet?
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cal04 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 05:40 PM
Response to Original message
2. CBS Poll: Kerry Bounces Back
Sen. John Kerry's debate performance appears to have returned the presidential campaign to a dead heat and eroded some of President Bush's advantages on national security issues, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll.

The Democratic candidate and President George W. Bush are tied: 47 percent of likely voters support Kerry, and 47 percent support George W. Bush. In a CBS News Poll conducted the week before the debate, the Bush-Cheney ticket held a nine-point lead over Kerry and his running mate John Edwards among likely voters.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/04/opinion/polls/main647342.shtml
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shockingelk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 05:48 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Is this the CBS or CBS/NY Times poll?
It's confusing ...
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FlemingsGhost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
3. "A dead heat." "Another close one." "Evenly divided"
That's all we'll hear from now on.

Ripe for stealing, is what I see ... lofty televison ratings, to boot.
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sonicx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 05:46 PM
Response to Original message
4. This is another garbage poll IMO, but atleast it shows a tie
and gets Kerry good press.
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brooklynite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #4
14. More importantly...
Every poll has W bouncing around below 50%. If he can't lock down a majority by election day, the, the remaining undecided voters (who couldn't bring themselves to support him during the campaign) are most likely to break Kerry's way.
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pinniped Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 05:47 PM
Response to Original message
5. So how was the piece of human garbage supposedly...
in the lead again?

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RaRa Donating Member (705 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #5
16. Hey, I thought I copywrote that phrase! eom
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BlueNomad Donating Member (494 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 06:03 PM
Response to Original message
7. Look at some of the insides
Edited on Mon Oct-04-04 06:04 PM by BlueNomad
Poll: Bush And Kerry Tied

NEW YORK, Oct. 4, 2004

Kerry Gets Debate Bounce

Kerry scored a solid success in the first presidential debate. By more than two to one, voters said that Kerry, not Bush, did the best job in that debate; 60 percent declared Kerry the winner, and 23 percent said Bush won.

SOME IMPORTANT GOOD NEWS.... (I think much of what you see below was from only 90 minutes with Kerry. Makes you wonder what two more good performance debates could do to help him further.)


WAS SADDAM HUSSEIN PERSONALLY INVOLVED IN THE ATTACKS OF SEPTEMBER 11? (This is very critical)
(Registered Voters)
Yes
Now 33%
9/2004 39%
5/2003 51%
9/2002 49%

No
Now 56%
9/2004 51%
5/2003 38%
9/2002 35%


One problem for the President is that while many voters see the war in Iraq as part of the war on terrorism, they don’t necessarily think it has had a positive effect. In fact, four in 10 voters say the threat of terrorism against the U.S. has increased as a result of the war.

THREAT OF TERRORISM AGAINST U.S. AS A RESULT OF IRAQ WAR
(Registered Voters)
Increased 40%
Decreased 22%
Stayed the same 36%

And 45 percent of voters think that the conflict in Iraq is creating more terrorists who plan to attack the U.S. rather than eliminating them. Just 27 percent think U.S. action there is helping to eliminate terrorists.

U.S INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ IS …
(Registered Voters)
Creating more terrorists 45%
Eliminating terrorists 27%
Having no effect 19%

However, just over half the voters accept the argument that the war in Iraq is part of the war on terrorism, and 41 percent say it is a major part. 47 percent do not view the Iraq war as part of the war on terrorism. But fewer voters than ever in this poll now believe that Saddam Hussein was involved in the September 11th attacks. 33 percent of voters still think Saddam Hussein was personally involved, but 56 percent think he was not.

THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION: IRAQ, TERRORISM, AND NORTH KOREA
Most voters evaluate the current administration’s planning and decision making for the war negatively. Almost six in 10 think the Bush administration did a poor job of thinking through what would happen in Iraq as a result of the war. A third think they did a good job of it.

BUSH ADMINISTRATION JOB THINKING THROUGH WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN IRAQ
(Registered Voters)
Good job 34%
Poor job 59

More than half of voters say the Bush administration was too quick to get the U.S. involved in a war with Iraq. Another 38 percent think the timing of the U.S. action was about right. Only 7 percent say the U.S. too slow to go to war with Iraq.

47 percent of voters think the Bush administration has focused too much on Iraq and not enough on al Qaeda, while 44 percent think the administration has struck the right balance.


LIMITING NORTH KOREAN WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT:
(Registered Voters)
Bush administration has done enough 22%
Bush administration has NOT done enough 57%
Don’t know 21%

BUSH ADMINISTRATION’S POLICIES MADE U.S. SAFER FROM TERRORISM
(Registered Voters)
Yes, safer 56%
No, less safe 27%
No effect 13%


Considering how poor some of the polls have been, I think Kerry clearly kicked started this thing into orbit. What's creepy are all the people who still see Bush as a leader. There is a simmering underground of folks coming to the top who clearly just want Kerry to reassure them. And he will continue to do so especially around the economy. He has done as well as he is going to do on this Iraq terrorism crap.

<http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/04/opinion/polls/main647342.shtml>
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daleo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 06:16 PM
Response to Original message
8. A little methodology blurb
"This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 979 adults interviewed by telephone October 1-3, 2004. There were 851 registered voters. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on all adults and all registered voters. Each registered voter is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters. The effective number of likely voters is 561. The margin of error for the number of likely voters could be plus or minus 4 points."

So, from the raw sample of 979 to the likely voter sample of 561 they dropped off 418 respondents, which is pretty close to half the sample. There is no mention of the criteria used to whittle the sample. Lots of room for shenanigans, I would say.
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BlueNomad Donating Member (494 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 06:21 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. yes
excellent, excellent point. That's a huge dump.
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BlueNomad Donating Member (494 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 06:19 PM
Response to Original message
9. I forgot to add
Edited on Mon Oct-04-04 06:20 PM by BlueNomad
..folks polled that bush is spending too much time just on Iraq...I think when the domestic discussions starts rolling it will roll into the election. This is the other way the Bush Cheney people inadvertently screwed themselves when they put the foreign policy debate early and first...The first things fence sitters and undecided think about when they go in to vote is what they heard about last....
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951 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 06:22 PM
Response to Original message
11. 35% Bush 52% Kerry is more fitting
Edited on Mon Oct-04-04 06:22 PM by 951
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VegasWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 06:37 PM
Response to Original message
12. Swing State Update!!! Nevada!!! Just on the news! 45,000 more
Democrats registered than Repukes!

New Information Shows Bush Indecisive, Paranoid, Delusional
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 06:41 PM
Response to Original message
13. WRONG!, as McLaughlin used to say.
Edited on Mon Oct-04-04 06:41 PM by Gregorian
These polls are obscene. I couldn't get myself to believe them if I tried. There is absolutely no way a chimpanzee could be tied with a bright Senator.

If so, can we get some Canadian brains down here?

Edit- Oops, forgot this---\
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RaRa Donating Member (705 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 08:40 PM
Response to Original message
15. That says it all
We can all drive ourselves nuts with these polls (myself included), but it'a a tie as far as we know. Even a few points one way or another matters nothing since we're dealing with errors. We simply have to accept that this is a close one and have to fight for every vote.

(Ick, had to have my husband push his dad to register today - deadline - in OHIO!. He'd vote for Kerry but is the most apathetic human being I've ever met. I doubt he did. Meanwhile my husband is taking election day off to ensure he makes is to the polls....in Illinois. sigh)
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Ohio rules Donating Member (283 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-04-04 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
17. Rasmussen has it 48.6% to 46.1% with 3.5% undecided
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Will there be a VP debate bounce by thursday reducing the undecideds ?

I'll guess it would drop from 3.5% to 3.2%
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