Bush momentum falters following debate

[baby_bear]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_article.asp?id=10361&cid=15&cname=Politics


Sounds good, but not necessarily....


<snip>
In local polling, where the rubber actually hits the electoral road in America -- presidents are elected through an electoral college, which means presidential candidates can lose the popular vote and still win the election, as happened in 2000 -- Mr Bush is polling out in front, according to electoral-vote.com.

That site, which tracks polling state-by-state to develop electoral college predictions, shows Mr Bush ahead 296 to 238, as of today, and, based on linear regression analysis, says Mr Bush is likely to carry the election with 348 electoral votes to Mr Kerry's 171. Candidates need 270 electoral college votes to win.

The site's operator, an avowed Kerry supporter, has long cautioned about that final results projection that the data involved in making it up "are very noisy, so this map should not be taken too seriously until October" and some commentators, particularly from the Right, have faulted the site's mapping for its use of the most current poll in an area, rather than sticking with a tight subset of polls.
</snip>

I think I just hate polls.

s_m

[David Dunham]

1. This approach is not solid. State polls are all over the place.

[wtmusic]

2. Linear regression makes the erroneous assumption

that there will be no significant events or developments between now and the election.

[Merusault]

3. Final results projection

on electoral-vote.com has Rhode Island going to Bush by 38 points, and Utah tied. :7

[JusticeForAll]

5. Regression line

Regression line projections for finite range results (0% - 100% of voter preference) in topics such as elections are absurd.

This method of forecasting is just so wrong. I have a limited math background, but know enough that this type of model should not be used in the way that the electoral-vote site uses it. Some type of exponential model is certainly in order here, but to get to exactly what the parameters should be, is beyond my scope.

[Art_from_Ark]

4. Sounds like bullshit to me

If bu$h's momentum is faltering, how the hell could he take away 67 electoral votes from Kerry between now and the election? Seems like Kerry would be the one taking away from bu$h's totals.

[Carla in Ca]

6. I just look at Zogby, seems the most accurate

n/t