STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 1 October

[ozymandius]

Friday October 1, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 111
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 32
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 294 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 348 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 561
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1044
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 30, 2004

Dow... 10,080.27 -55.97 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq... 1,896.84 +2.90 (+0.15%)
S&P 500... 1,114.58 -0.22 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.12% +0.03 (+0.71%)
Gold future... 420.30 +5.60 (+1.33%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Invest in Merck and You Might See a Speculative Gain

This article was composed last night and completed around mid-night. Annotations added tonight and are indicated in blue. Today as you may have heard, Merck announced that they were pulling Vioxx off of the market after a recent long-term study indicated that the drug increased the risk of heart disease. While Vioxx consists of about 10% of Merck’s sales, the stock market delivered a 27% hit to Merck’s stock (This equates to $27 Billion in lost market capitalization). All stocks are speculative – even the bluest of the blue chips. It almost seems impossible to find actual value in today’s stock market, yet I believe that Merck and Company (MRK) is a value investment. At $45/share, it is not a fire sale bargain typical of those favored by value investors such as Warren Buffett, yet it is a fair price. In addition there are several technical reasons why this stock may do quite well in the intermediate term. Investors can buy a stock a little down on its short-term luck underpinned with real long-term value for the long haul. Better yet, if pharmaceutical companies regain their stature as Wall Street favorites, large speculative gains may also be possible. That’s why I’m buying Merck and I will describe my rational in detail tonight.

There was what appears to me to be panic selling today based on the Vioxx news, yet what I think doesn’t count in the short or intermediate run; its what the market thinks that counts. Long-term, the value case still applies to Merck. If the case applied last midnight, the Vioxx news probably is not worth a loss of $27 billion in market cap. To put this dollar value in perspective, $27 billion is the market capitalization of Caterpillar, Inc

-cut-

What If The Market Tanks?

With the Nasdaq showing intermediate term technical weakness, there is every reason to believe that the general stock market is due for either a correction at best or even a crash in the intermediate term. How will a stock such as Merck behave if the bear market were to resume in a big way? Since the leadership of this rally was largely the same as the 2000 bubble, it stands to reason that drug stocks are likely to behave similarly. Below are charts of Merck during the timeframe bracketing the 2000 technology bubble.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

2. Anyone want to predict...

What, if any effect Dear Leader's tanking last night will have on the markets? Dow? S&P? Other futures?

[ozymandius]

4. hard to say

If the confidence that Kerry projected last night is somehow reflected onto the markets then we'll see numbers in the plus column. We also might see numbers in the plus column if there is an air of certainty that Kerry will be our next president. (And we know how much the markets like certainty.)

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.68 Change +0.32 (+0.37%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH57047_2004-10-01_10-51-45_L01608080

FOREX-Dollar edges off lows before G7, sterling tumbles

LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The dollar recovered from a two-month low on the euro and a one-week low on the yen on Friday as the market waited to see if a G7 meeting and key U.S. data could break the U.S. currency out of a half-year range.

Sterling hit another bout of selling, falling one percent on the dollar and forging an eight-month low on the euro after weaker than expected domestic manufacturing data threw a further dampener on expectations for higher UK interest rates.

The market was sceptical but still wary of any surprises on currency policy from the Group of Seven meeting in Washington later.

"We're looking at the closeness of euro/dollar to its July high. It's the high of a six-month-long range channel and we are waiting for a test to see if we can really push through -- there's a lot riding on what is happening at the moment," said Peter Fontaine, currency strategist at KBC in Brussels.

"We expect quite good U.S. data today but the market has been shrugging off good data recently. It's important to keep an eye on the G7 but I don't believe it will deliver something new."

...more...

here are the words from yesterday:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=anGinwIS03oY&refer=japan

Dollar Falls as G-7 Seen Repeating Call for Flexible Currencies

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell the most in two months against the yen amid speculation a meeting tomorrow of Group of Seven officials will produce a call for Asian countries to allow their currencies to strengthen.

Finance ministers and central bankers of the G-7 industrialized nations gather in Washington tomorrow. Now is a ``very good moment'' for China to ease its currency's peg, or fixed value, to the U.S. dollar, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato said today.

``The dollar is going to have to move lower, especially versus Asia,'' to shrink the U.S. trade deficit, said John McCarthy, a director of currency trading in New York at ING Financial Markets LLC. ``Even if the G-7 leaves their statement unchanged, that underscores the need for flexible exchange rates.''

<snip>

To emphasize their call for more flexible exchange rates, the G-7 ministers may use wording in their statement that suggests the consequences of having inflexible exchange rates, said Rick Arney, a currency investment strategist in San Francisco at Barclays Global Investors, which oversees $50 billion in currencies. They may suggest inflexible exchange regimes contribute to imbalances such as the U.S. trade gap, he said.

The trade deficit is one reason ``we currently have a short position in the U.S. dollar'' against the euro, Arney said.

July's U.S. trade deficit was $50.1 billion, narrowing from June's record of $55 billion. The trade gap with China grew to $14.9 billion in July, the widest ever, and accounted for almost a third of the imbalance.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6378958

UPDATE 1-IMF's Rato says time for China to move on currency

WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato said on Thursday strong economic growth in China makes the time ripe for Beijing to start moving toward a more flexible currency.

"Our position is clear. We think there is a room of maneuver (to) start moving, at a pace of course, to a more flexible exchange rate system," Rato told reporters at a briefing ahead of weekend meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

"We think that precisely because this is a moment of strong growth in the Chinese economy, this is a very good moment to do it," he said.

China currently pegs the value of its currency, the yuan, at 8.28 to the dollar. U.S. manufacturers and labor groups have complained bitterly that the currency peg gives Chinese producers on unfair price advantage on world markets.

China has said that it intends to move toward greater currency flexibility but that it first must shore up its banking system and turn around ailing state-run companies.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6382816

US Treasury chief urged faster yuan move-official

WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow laid out a case for a faster move toward yuan currency flexibility at a meeting on Thursday with Chinese officials, a Chinese official who was at the meeting said.

"We introduced what we did to prepare the system, the macro base for a more flexible currency policy," the official, who was part of a Chinese-U.S. meeting ahead of the Group of Seven finance ministers gathering on Friday, told Reuters.

...more...

Reports due today:

Oct 01 12:00 AM
Auto Sales Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 5.2M
market anticipates 5.2M
last report 5.2M
revised -

Oct 01 12:00 AM
Truck Sales Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 8.1M
market anticipates 8.2M
last report 8.2M
revised -

Oct 01 9:45 AM
Mich Sentiment-Rev. Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 96.0
market anticipates 96.0
last report 95.8
revised -

Oct 01 10:00 AM
Construction Spending Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.4%
market anticipates 0.4%
last report 0.4%
revised -

Oct 01 10:00 AM
ISM Index Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 59.5
market anticipates 58.3
last report 59.0
revised -

Great 'toon, Ozy :D

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

8. Pressure Grows On G7 To Agree Dlr Devaluation (The rumor I posted

about yesterday)

http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?StoryId=Cqvy:WaebqLqWmde2mtG

LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.S. President George Bush is being urged to signal a dollar devaluation of up to 20% to rebalance the global economy ahead of Friday's Group of Seven and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, the U.K.'s The Business newspaper reported.

Senior U.S. administration officials in Washington have over the past few days tried to influence the White House and U.S. Treasury to put pressure on the G7 to agree to a dollar depreciation in its final statement, the newspaper said.

Recent data have shown the U.S. current account and trade deficits running at record levels, and economists have said a dollar depreciation is needed to rein these in.

snip>

Spurring economic growth will be high on the agenda at the meetings of G7 finance ministers and central bankers next week, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said Friday.

"The promotion of economic freedom, opportunity and growth throughout the world will be a key topic," he said in a statement in New York City.

[ozymandius]

9. 20% depreciation?

Doesn't this mean that the Bush administration is abandoning the strong dollar policy after stating that they would not?

What's the word the Bush campaign has for this kind of reversal?



Bush chews on a sour dill pickle after the conclusion of the first presidential spanking.

[UpInArms]

14. Ewww! My eyes! My eyes!

It looks like *Co is about to spit on Kerry!

Gack!

[UpInArms]

10. that would put the dollar at

70 on the index - where would the other currencies be?

[54anickel]

15. I dunno. But I'd be willing to bet China won't allow the yuan to float

freely if this is true. They may be willing to widen the band just a tad, but they don't appear to be stupid.

I'm afraid that if they try another Plaza Accord type of fix, folks will bail out of the buck in droves this time around. Interest rates might have to go pretty dang high to get them back this time. Couple of articles from last year.


A Second Plaza Accord?
http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/crisis/2003/09plazaaccord.htm

snip>

The so-called twin deficits, trade and fiscal, are a near duplicate of the conditions that led to the Plaza Accord. In September 1985, the U.S., U.K., France, Germany and Japan sat down to reengineer the world's main exchange rates. That agreement saw the dollar fall by half against other major currencies. The result set in place the conditions that caused the Japanese bubble to expand and burst, damaging that economy for more than a decade.

Their goal was to stimulate demand outside the U.S. -- and most particularly in Japan -- to help the world's largest economy reduce its dangerous imbalances. In that they were successful: in real terms, growth in Japanese imports rose from an average of 1.6 percent a year in 1983-85 to 11.3 percent in 1986-88. At the same time, U.S. imports slowed, from 14.5 percent per annum to 6.1 percent a year. One side effect of this tinkering was to drive down inflation in the then-European Economic Community (now the EU) from 5.9 percent a year in the three years prior to the Plaza Accords to just 2.8 percent. Germany and Japan ran a real risk of deflation in the process, as their average annual rates of household inflation slowed to just 0.4 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, in 1986-88.

If any of this sounds familiar, substitute China for Japan, and 2003 for 1985. The key factors are in place for a repeat of the disastrous (for Japan) Plaza Accord. The U.S. is feeling tough and aggressive; the economy is out of kilter; unemployment is high and rising; the budget has more red ink than a paint factory; and a single Asian nation is being set up to take the blame. It looks like 1985 all over again.

The differences, however, are critical. First, Chinese imports rose nearly 43 percent in the first seven months of this year and more than 20 percent per annum in the previous four years. This is no under-performer. Second, consumer prices have fallen in three of the past five years, and even when rising have not topped 1 percent since 1997. A sharp appreciation of the renminbi would drive China back into deflation. Third, China is far poorer than Japan was in the mid-1980s, and cannot afford to take the risks associated with exchange rate manipulation. The country needs to create tens of millions of jobs every year, and the star performer is exports.

If Japan's mature financial institutions and exporting corporations were devastated by the aftermath of the first Plaza Accord, imagine what would happen to China's far less developed banks and other financial sector companies. The implications for Hong Kong are severe as well.

more...

China Says `No' to
`Plaza Accord' Pressure

http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2003/3038plaza_accord.html

All the continued hullabaloo by the George W. Bush Administration about the fixed exchange rate of the Chinese currency, the renminbi, to the dollar, is getting nowhere. The Chinese remain determined that they are not going to give into the U.S. pressure for the currency to "float," by which Washington really means to drastically revalue the renminbi upward against the dollar.

China has drawn the historical lesson of what the 1985 "Plaza Accord" brought about, negotiated at that year's Group of Seven finance ministers meeting in New York: It destroyed the rapid growth of the Japanese economy after World War II. The Bush Administration, and some in Japan, want China to submit to the same sort of agreement now.

snip>

Although both European and Japanese officials had expressed doubts about this policy, the communiqué issued by the Group of Seven on Sept. 21, ended up calling for "more flexibility in exchange rates." It read: "In the context of exchange rates, we will strengthen the dialogue with other major economic areas to promote a smooth adjustment of international imbalances, based on market mechanisms." Previously, G-7 communiqués restrained themselves to calling for "monitoring" exchange rate movements, and for governments to "cooperate as appropriate."

In the next days, the Japanese yen and the South Korean won rose sharply against the U.S. dollar, to the highest levels in three years. This brought protests from Tokyo, which has already had to spend 9.03 trillion yen ($76.8 billion) this year, to try to control the yen's rise.

Snow tried to offer some bribes to the Chinese, who had a delegation in Dubai. He told the IMF meeting that the United States would be willing to consider a future admittance of China to the "elite" G-7 group of nations. "The issue of membership gets reviewed from time to time, and I think we are open to looking at the whole question," he said. China should take a sober look at the treatment that Russia receives as a sometime member of what is called the Group of Eight. At these occasional, expanded G-8 meetings, Russian delegates are allowed in (to sit at the "children's table").

But this was an empty gesture by Snow. As one well-informed City of London figure told EIR on Sept. 23, the dollar plunged because "everybody knows" how desperate the Bush Administration is about the U.S. economy. "I don't think the dollar going down has to do with the Dubai G-7 communiqué insisting on flexible exchange rates; there is something else going on," he said. "The financial world has latched onto a falling dollar, because of knowledge that has been picked up ... that the Administration clearly wants to abandon the strong dollar. It's fair to say, that they want to drive the dollar down, because of growing desperation about the American economy, as the election year approaches." China and Japan, he noted, are not going to change their policies just because of one communiqué.

more...

[ozymandius]

12. Dollar Vulnerable, Stocks Rise Overseas

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro was near two-month highs against the dollar Friday as key U.S. data loomed and as traders awaited a Group of Seven meeting of finance ministers, while oil-fired inflation fears lifted gold close.

European shares rose and the region's bonds shrugged off September data showing manufacturing growth in the euro zone at its slowest pace in seven months.

more...

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6388682

[ozymandius]

18. China committed to move 'steadily' toward flexible exchange rate

WASHINGTON (AFP) - China vowed to move "firmly and steadily" toward a flexible exchange rate during a meeting of Chinese and US officials in Washington Thursday, the US Treasury Department (news - web sites) said in a statement.

The Chinese delegation, led by Finance Minister Jin Renqing, "reaffirmed China's commitment to further advance reform and to push ahead firmly and steadily to a market-based flexible exchange rate, and described the steps the Chinese government has taken to create conditions to establish a more flexible exchange rate," the statement said.

The United States and its G7 partners had maintained that the Chinese currency, pegged to a weak dollar, makes foreign goods too expensive -- and thereby less competitive -- in China, while leaving Chinese exports unfairly cheap in foreign markets.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/afp/20041001/bs_afp/us_china_economy_currency_forex&sid=96001027

[54anickel]

21. "Firmly and steadily"? So what does that mean? I'm bettin' it's not

what Snowjob is hoping for.

Found one other interesting article, pdf format.

http://www.iwep.org.cn/wec/2004_1-2/heitiandongyan.pdf

snip>

The implications of ever increasing exchange market intervention will be twofold: on the one hand the authorities will face huge exchange risk in the future, and on the other hand they may lose monetary control. Japan in the early 1970s faced less of problem because capital mobility was limited at that time, but China's situation is much more difficult. The money supply is increasing by more than 20 percent, and real estate prices are rapidly rising, showing early signs of an asset bubble, although hyperinflation is unlikely at this time. It was only natural that the central bank recently raised
reserve requirements for commercial banks. However, it is unclear whether the central bank can effectively sterilize exchange market intervention under the fixed exchange rate regime.

In order to avoid boom and bust cycles, hyperinflation, or a sudden, steep currency appreciation in the future, the Chinese authorities need to start exchange rate adjustment sooner rather than later with a medium-term strategy in mind. There are basically three ways to do so. One solution, advocated by such market fundamentalists as Larry Lindsay, is to immediately float the currency and abolish capital controls. This is quite risky because the exchange rate might greatly overshoot, hurting the Chinese economy. The second solution, suggested by many economists including Morris Goldstein and Peter Kenen, is to revalue the currency by 15-25 percent and peg it to a basket of major currencies that should include the dollar, the euro, and the yen. This is a safer option since capital controls would be retained; However, such a large revaluation might damage the Chinese economy in the short run and still be insufficient in the long run.

The third solution, which I would recommend, is to allow the renminbi to adjust upward gradually, perhaps by 7-10 percent annually at the most over the next several years. (If an up front revaluation of some 15 percent is made, then only a 4-6 percent annual appreciation would be needed.) Such a gradual adjustment could be realized through a wider band with occasional adjustments, frequent revaluations, or a crawling peg. I prefer the crawling peg system, but it is a technicality to be decided by the authorities. In any case, capital controls must be maintained in order to mitigate the interest parity condition. This gradualist solution may not be particularly easy to
manage, but it would avoid any shock to the Chinese economy, and consequently to the global economy.

After the necessary exchange rate adjustment is completed, the renminbi could be floated with appropriate management to avoid excessive fluctuations, and capital controls could be removed step by step. At that time, China should participate in the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meetings to jointly monitor the exchange market and cooperate as necessary. By then, the Chinese economy will have become much larger than the German economy and an integral part of the global economy.

[UpInArms]

27. China to Move Toward Flexible Currency

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/ap20041001_384.html

WASHINGTON Oct. 1, 2004 — The Bush administration, struggling to show progress in attacking this country's soaring trade deficits, won a commitment Friday from China that it would move "firmly and steadily" to a flexible, market-based currency. However, the Chinese offered no firm timetable for how long the transition will take.

Changing China's currency system has been a key demand of the beleaguered manufacturing sector in the United States. Companies believe China's current policy of linking its currency at a fixed rate to the U.S. dollar has undervalued the Chinese yuan by as much as 40 percent, giving the country a tremendous competitive advantage over U.S. products.

China's commitment came in a joint economic statement issued early Friday following high-level meetings between Treasury Secretary John Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and their counterparts from China, Finance Minister Jin Renqing and Zhou Xiachuan, head of China's central bank.

"The Chinese side reaffirmed China's commitment to further advance reform and to push ahead firmly and steadily to a market-based flexible exchange rate," the two sides said in the joint statement.

The statement said the U.S. side expressed support for continued efforts by China's government to "to bring about this goal as rapidly as possible."

<snip>

The lawmakers pointed to a U.S. trade deficit with China which hit $124 billion last year, the highest ever recorded with any country, and which is running at an even higher annual rate above $140 billion this year.

...more...

[54anickel]

28. "Eventually" vs. "as rapidly as possible".

snip>

China pledged to continue its efforts to remove government controls from its financial system, a step that is seen as necessary to eventually allow the value of China's currency to be set on open markets. However, some private economists believe Beijing will not allow its currency to be fully flexible for a period of five years or more.

Gotta love this part. Snow getting ready for the day when we might need one of them there "grants"? :evilgrin:

In a speech Thursday, Snow called for significantly expanded debt relief for poor nations and said the World Bank should focus more on grants, which do not have to be repaid, rather than loans.

While Snow did not provide any details, international debt relief groups said the United States is pushing a proposal that would drop requirements for the world's poorest nations to repay loans. But they said the U.S. proposal does not specifically provide for greater resources to pay for the debt relief. Typical, just print it and borrow it! :eyes:

By contrast, a proposal unveiled this week by British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown would have a portion of the debt relief paid through revaluing IMF's massive gold reserves and by individual contributions from rich countries.

[UpInArms]

30. SnowJob and Meanspin

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2004/09/30/ap1569361.html

excerpt:

Facing political attacks for not doing enough to curb America's exploding trade deficit with China, the administration gained key support for the currency change from Rodrigo Rato, head of the International Monetary Fund. Rato said a more flexible currency exchange system is one of the IMF's top recommendations for China.

The administration began its lobbying effort with high-level meetings with economic officials from China. The U.S. delegation was led by Treasury Secretary John Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, while the Chinese delegation was led by Finance Minister Jin Renqing.

The administration has been prodding China for more than a year to drop its current currency regime, which pegs the Chinese yuan at a fixed rate to the U.S. dollar.

China has insisted that its goal is to eventually adopt a flexible exchange system, in which the value of the yuan would be set by market forces. But it argues that it cannot make the change now because it would threaten the stability of its banking system.

Rato told reporters the IMF believes a more flexible exchange rate system would enable China to better withstand financial shocks.

...more...

[54anickel]

32. Why is the Fed Chairman out whoring for the admin? I didn't think that

was part of the role of the Fed Reserve. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

5. other articles

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/9801518.htm

DaimlerChrysler Invests $210 million in Mexican plant

MEXICO CITY - DaimlerChrysler AG said Thursday it plans to spend $210 million to update one of its assembly plants in the northern Mexican state of Coahuila.

The automaker said it will buy new robotic equipment for its assembly line, which should speed up assembly and make the line more agile. The company will also invest in new equipment for painting and final assembly.

...more...

It's a shame that their business investment is not happening in the good ole' USoA. Wasn't that what those corporate tax cuts were supposed to encourage?

http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2004/mft04093026.htm

Family Spending Part of Its Dollar

While it is true that many Americans have moved into the ranks of being considered millionaires, the lower-income portion of the country has been taking a worse beating than boxer Roy Jones Jr. Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) CEO Howard Levine admitted today, "Fiscal 2004 was a difficult year as the economy was not favorable for Family Dollar's low and low-middle customer base."

With that negative trend in play, Family Dollar reported fourth-quarter earnings of $0.26 per share, which was in line with the analysts' consensus estimate but below last year's earnings of $0.28 per share. The deep discounter's net sales were up 9.6%, while its same-store sales were up only 0.7%. For fiscal 2004, net sales increased 11.2%, and same-store sales were up 1.9%.

...more...

Those at the bottom are starting to go under.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/109421/1/.html

Oil prices rebound towards record highs above 50 dollars

LONDON : Oil prices resumed their march towards 50 dollars in New York as peace talks in major producer Nigeria and an unexpected rise in US crude inventories failed to ease traders' fears about supply.

The price of light sweet crude for November delivery rose 44 cents to 49.95 dollars a barrel in early trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract had closed lower Wednesday for the first time in nearly two weeks, dropping 39 cents to 49.51 dollars a barrel.

...more...

Diesel is now over $2.00 a gallon. When will those truckers start screaming?

[UpInArms]

13. another article where a US corp is investing outside USoA

http://sify.com/finance/equity/fullstory.php?id=13580409

Qualcomm opens R&D centre in Hyderabad

Qualcomm Incorporated, pioneer and world leader of Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) digital wireless technology, on October 1 announced the opening of a research and development (R&D) center in Hyderabad, India.

Qualcomm's Hyderabad R&D center will support Qualcomm's CDMA chipset development activities and ongoing efforts to advance CDMA wireless technology in India and across the region. The center is part of the company's efforts to enhance its worldwide engineering workforce to help meet the increasing demand for third-generation (3G) wireless devices.

As part of Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT), work at the Hyderabad site includes software, DSP firmware and hardware development, design testing and technical customer support. The engineering team will provide operator support and customization of CDMA modem software and chipsets for specific handset manufacturers and operators.

...more...

[54anickel]

6. The Fannie Mae mess is one for the books

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P92322.asp

Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored mortgage company whose financial statements were strongly criticized in a report by its regulator last week, looks set to join Enron and WorldCom in the hall of accounting infamy.

Lining up Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) alongside two of America's worst corporate fraud offenders may seem a stretch to some. But a close reading of the report suggests that Fannie could have kept billions of dollars of losses out of earnings -- as well as out of an important capital number that is used by its regulator to determine the company's financial strength.

WorldCom is thought to have hidden around $11 billion of expenses to boost its earnings. But it's possible that Fannie, which provides huge support to the U.S. housing market through billions of dollars of mortgage purchases each year, overstated the capital number by more than that. For example, at the end of last year, the capital number in question may have excluded as much as $11.6 billion in pretax net losses.

Implications for the housing industry
If Fannie did fail to include those losses in earnings and capital, it would have drastic ramifications for the company, investors and the structure of the U.S. housing industry. Fannie may have to raise far more new capital than Wall Street currently is estimating, leading to a further decline in Fannie's stock. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) and Fannie announced Monday that Fannie must immediately go about raising its capital to 30% above its required level, but the final amount may be far higher.

more...

[ozymandius]

7. Stocks Seen Higher; Oil Prices Slipping

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks looked to open higher on Friday, as the fourth quarter begins on Wall Street with oil prices holding below $50 a barrel.

-cut-

Futures moved steadily higher throughout the morning.

S&P 500 futures were up 2 points, above fair value accounting for dividends, interest rates and time to expiration on the contract, indicating the market would open higher.

-cut-

Oil prices slid on Friday, giving some relief to the market, as rising energy costs and their impact on corporate profits have remained a key focus for investors. U.S. light crude was down 29 cents to $49.35 a barrel in electronic trading.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[nolabels]

35. Good News: Oil prices just below $50 dollars a barrel

:crazy:



I remember some complaining when it was at $15 dollars a barrel, saying it was too low.

Where in hell are them people :shrug:

[UpInArms]

50. Crude futures close at a fresh record above $50

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={B413B36C-DFC6-449C-9F03-1A93BF415838}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- November crude rose 48 cents to close at $50.12 a barrel in New York, ending above the key $50 for the first time ever and marking a gain of almost 3 percent for the week. "There is some upward momentum before the weekend as some traders have second thoughts about being caught short," said Thorsten Fischer, a senior economist at Economy.com, adding that "$50 is psychologically important, no doubt, but the market had some time getting used to it before."

[54anickel]

53. Doesn't matter! Nope not one bit! This be a bull market, PARTY!!!

[ozymandius]

11. PeopleSoft Ousts CEO Amid Oracle Battle

NEW YORK (Reuters) - PeopleSoft Inc. (PSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , which is trying to fight off a hostile takeover by rival Oracle Corp. (ORCL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , on Friday said its board had ousted President and Chief Executive Craig Conway due to "a loss of confidence" in his ability to lead the software company.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6389334

[UpInArms]

16. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

09:16 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.7. S&P and Nasdaq futures have faded a bit from their best levels of the morning but still suggest a positive start for the cash market... Tech stocks are anticipated to take a leadership role, which is helping the early bias along with the solid gains seen in foreign markets, bullish economic commentary from Fed. Gov. Bies, and a lack of any major earnings warnings

8:51AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.7.

8:28AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.2. Futures market is extending its gains, which is setting up the cash market for a solid boost at the open... News that PeopleSoft (PSFT) CEO Conway has been fired by board due to loss of confidence in his ability to lead company has given shares of PSFT a lift that has further underpinned the Nasdaq futures

8:05AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.7. Positive bias in futures market has the cash market poised for a positive start on the first day of Q4.... Look for Merck (MRK) to be a source of support today as yesterday's drubbing has invited some brokerage upgrades this morning

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it extends Thursday's breakout above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1413.10. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rebound, a test of last month's high crossing at 1446.50 is possible later this fall. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 3.00 pts. at 1420.50 as of 5:56 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rebound off Tuesday's low and is trading above the 10- day moving average crossing at 1114.21. Multiple closes above this resistance level would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low has likely been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1118.65 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound during the first half of October. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

22. Turning bullish all around! Yee-haw!!! n/t

[UpInArms]

17. 9:35 EST markets are open

Dow 10,112.72 +32.45 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,909.82 +12.98 (+0.68%)
S&P 500 1,119.18 +4.60 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.181% +0.062

[UpInArms]

19. UMich Sept. consumer sentiment revised to 94.2 vs 95.8

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38261.4115740741-822214284&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Consumer sentiment eroded in late September, according to media reports Friday of proprietary research from the University of Michigan. The UMich consumer sentiment index fell to 94.2 in September from 95.8 earlier in the month. The index is below August's 95.9 level. The weakness was unexpected. Economists were expecting a slight decrease to about 95.7 in late September.

[54anickel]

24. Doesn't matter, nope not one bit. Don't give a rat's ass about that

touchy-feely sentiment anymore. We are coming up on the holiday shop 'til ya drop season! Nothin' better than a good old fashion holiday shopping spree to fight those consumer blues!!! :eyes:

Seems strange that the recent not-so-good reports are being pretty much ignored, doesn't it.

[UpInArms]

26. it's more like some deranged machine

is at the controls of the markets.

Logic has flown and insanity rules.

[UpInArms]

20. 9:59 EST numbers and blather

bad news on the UMich and a straight up spike?

Dow 10,134.18 +53.91 (+0.53%)
Nasdaq 1,915.04 +18.20 (+0.96%)
S&P 500 1,122.46 +7.88 (+0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.175% +0.056

9:40AM: Stocks open sharply higher, as indicated by futures...PeopleSoft (PSFT 21.20 +1.35) as the departure of the CEO suggests that a deal with Oracle is more likely...oil is down a bit, which is also helping the tone...and Merck (MRK 33.40 +0.40) has bounced back a bit on some supportive comments by Bear Stearns...

[54anickel]

25. 10:14 and look at that DOW soar!!!

Dow 10,176.58 +96.31 (+0.96%)
Nasdaq 1,925.95 +29.11 (+1.53%)
S&P 500 1,127.77 +13.19 (+1.18%)
10-yr Bond 4.178% +0.059
30-yr Bond 4.937% +0.046
NYSE Volume 269,683,000
Nasdaq Volume 337,997,000

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1921 (64%) 1627 (61%)
Declines 852 (28%) 876 (33%)
Unchanged 183 (6%) 134 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 121 (77%) 206 (83%)
Down Vol* 31 (19%) 37 (14%)
Unch. Vol* 5 (3%) 5 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 126 57
New Lo's 9 15

[UpInArms]

29. 10:38 EST numbers and blather (funds buying)

Dow 10,169.28 +89.01 (+0.88%)
Nasdaq 1,923.47 +26.63 (+1.40%)
S&P 500 1,127.25 +12.67 (+1.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.197% +0.078

10:25AM: Market shows continuing strength...start of quarter buying from funds may have some impact, but underlying tone simply seems better...ISM index was about as expected, and had little impact...bonds are down sharply, with the 10-year off 20/32 to yield 4.20%...the yield has backed up sharply this week as the 10-year yield was below 4% as recently as Monday...oil is down 19 cents at $49.45...techs are leading the charge today as the leading sectors are semiconductors, computer storage, software, and communications...NYSE Adv/Dec 2071/749, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1729/850

10:00AM: Indices hold up very well, although the revised September Michigan Consumer Confidence index came in below expectations at 94.2, down from the preliminary read at 95.8...the release of the September ISM index at 10:00 ET, which measures national manufacturing conditions, is likely to have more impact..breadth is good...NYSE Adv/Dec 1601/680, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1459/826

[UpInArms]

23. reports coming in

10:00am 10/01/04 U.S. JULY CONSTRUCTION SPENDING REVISED 1.1% VS. 0.4%
10:00am 10/01/04 U.S. AUG. RESIDENTIAL SPENDING UP 1.7%

10:00am 10/01/04 U.S. AUG. NONRESIDENTIAL PVT. SPENDING UP 0.8%

10:00am 10/01/04 U.S. AUG. PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS DOWN 1.0%

10:01am 10/01/04 U.S. SEPT ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX 58.5% VS 59.0% IN AUG

10:02am 10/01/04 U.S. SEPT. ISM NEW ORDERS 58.1% VS 61.2% IN AUG.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38261.4168055556-822214909&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. Aug. construction outlays up 0.8% v. 0.4% expected

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - A surge of homebuilding pushed total outlays for construction projects up by a better-than-expected 0.8 percent in August, the Commerce Department said Friday. Outlays in July were also revised much higher, to a 1.1 percent gain from 0.4 percent previously. Economists were expecting a smaller gain of 0.4 percent in August. With the revisions in July, August outlays were 1.4 percent higher than expected. Homebuilding was particularly strong in August, growing 1.7 percent to a record $550.6 billion annualized after a 0.6 percent gain in July.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38261.419837963-822215272&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

U.S. Sept. ISM factory index 58.5% vs 58.4% expected

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Factory activity in the United States decelerated in September, the Institute for Supply Management reported Friday. The ISM index fell to 58.5 percent in September from 59.0 percent in August. The decline was in line with expectations. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by CBS Marketwatch was for the index to slip to 58.4. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. New orders fell to 58.1 in September from 61.2 in August. The employment index rose to 58.1 in September from 55.7 in August.

[54anickel]

31. Bond prices sink, dollar rallies

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/01/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm

Selloff of Treasurys precedes key manufacturing report as economic recovery seems to strengthen.
October 1, 2004: 9:46 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Bonds sank further Friday morning ahead of key inflation readings, including a consumer sentiment report and a manufacturing survey.

snip>

Traders sold off Treasurys ahead of the Institute for Supply Management's national survey data for September, which is due out at 10 a.m. ET. The survey covers new orders, production, employment, inventories and prices.

snip>

Thursday's upbeat comments from Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies also gave traders reason to believe Friday's economic reports would be strong. Bies said the overall economy was in good shape and that it would continue to expand at a solid pace for the remainder of the year, adding that continued high oil prices could slow growth.

Bies reiterated the Fed's vow to raise rates at a measured pace.

snip>

In currency trading,the dollar recovered from Thursday's slide against the euro and the yen, rallying Friday morning as traders anticipated upbeat manufacturing data.

[UpInArms]

33. 11:21 EST numbers and blather (Damn we're happy!)

Dow 10,178.87 +98.60 (+0.98%)
Nasdaq 1,932.94 +36.10 (+1.90%)
S&P 500 1,128.99 +14.41 (+1.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.186% +0.067

11:00AM: Positive tone continues and although the rise has leveled off, there has yet to be any sign of significant selling pressures...technology stocks are leading the way...the Nasdaq is outperforming, and the SOX semiconductor index is up 3.8%...JP Morgan upgrades of Applied Materials and Novellus have been the catalysts...NYSE Adv/Dec 2209/761, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1839/889

10:25AM: Market shows continuing strength...start of quarter buying from funds may have some impact, but underlying tone simply seems better...ISM index was about as expected, and had little impact...bonds are down sharply, with the 10-year off 20/32 to yield 4.20%...the yield has backed up sharply this week as the 10-year yield was below 4% as recently as Monday...oil is down 19 cents at $49.45...techs are leading the charge today as the leading sectors are semiconductors, computer storage, software, and communications...NYSE Adv/Dec 2071/749, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1729/850

[54anickel]

34. Rust Belt Stocks Surge in Quarter

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-quarter1oct01,1,5741910.story?coll=la-headlines-business

snip>

That was the lesson of the third quarter that ended on Thursday. In a down market overall — the Standard & Poor's 500 index dipped 2.3% in the three months — shares of companies in such heavy-industry sectors as steel, mining and energy exploration racked up big gains.

It was a continuation of a rally that had lifted those Rust Belt issues in 2003. But their performance stood out last quarter in part because so many "new economy" investor favorites fared so poorly.

snip>

But he believes that many of the companies have healthy prospects. The key is the outlook for business capital spending in 2005 relative to consumer spending, Stovall said.

"We see capital spending as being the real driver of the economy" next year, he said.

The idea is that many companies may have just begun to loosen their purse strings, and should be poised to use more of the record earnings they've accumulated since 2002 to upgrade equipment.

snip>

Another plus for the sector: continuing strong demand for industrial equipment and basic materials such as steel and copper from China, India and other fast-growing economies.

Further weakness in the dollar's value against other currencies also could help U.S. industrial companies drum up more business overseas. A weaker dollar lowers the price of U.S. goods for foreign buyers.

more...

[UpInArms]

36. Ford's September U.S. auto sales fall 4%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38261.5075925926-822224626&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Ford Motor (F) posted September U.S. auto sales of 282,656 vehicles, down 4 percent from a year ago. Car sales fell 19 percent while truck sales increased 2 percent. Ford sold 99,720 of its F-Series truck, a 22 percent rise from September of last year. Volvo posted a 1.1 percent increase, buoying Ford's Premier Auto Group that saw Jaguar and Land Rover sales plunge 39.1 percent and 43.5 percent, respectively. Shares of Ford added 4 cents to $14.09 in midday trading.

[UpInArms]

37. Nissan September U.S. auto sales rise 11%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38261.5129976852-822225368&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Nissan (NSAN) posted September U.S. auto sales of 80,350 vehicles, an 11 percent increase from a year ago. Nissan brand sales rose 14.1 percent to 70,127 units sold while Infiniti sales fell 6.7 percent to 10,223 vehicles.

Wonder if anyone has figured out that Nissan is a Japanese company and those profits go back to them?

But this is good news? :crazy:

[UpInArms]

49. General Motors U.S. September Sales Rise

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2004/10/01/ap1571135.html

American automaker General Motors Corp. on Friday said a 20.5 percent rise in September U.S. sales was driven by strong demand for its GMC and Chevrolet trucks, but sales so far this year remain flat.

GM's total vehicle sales climbed to 451,729 units, compared with 359,832 units sold in the year-ago period.

Truck sales rose to 283,161 units from 204,790 units, a gain of 32.7 percent after accounting for one more selling day last month compared with September 2003, on heavy increases in sales of its Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC trucks.

Sales of GM cars increased 4.4 percent to 168,568 units from 155,042 units, with declines in Buick, Cadillac and Oldsmobile vehicles offsetting strong demand for Chevrolet cars in September.

Meanwhile, GM's year-to-date sales grew to 3.6 million units, up slightly from 3.5 million units in the same period last year on an adjusted basis. There were 230 selling days this year, compared with 229 selling days last year.

...more...

3:20pm 10/01/04 MITSUBISHI MOTORS SEPT SALES DOWN 42.3% TO 9,282 UNITS

[UpInArms]

38. 12:37 EST numbers and blather (not a care in the world)

Dow 10,185.13 +104.86 (+1.04%)
Nasdaq 1,937.67 +40.83 (+2.15%)
S&P 500 1,130.99 +16.41 (+1.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.166% +0.047

12:30PM: The averages continue to cling to strong gains but they have edged back slightly off their best levels of the session. Today's advance has been centered in the tech arena with an early semi equipment upgrade and start of the quarter fund buying in this lagging group underpinning. The top performing sectors have been led by semi +4.3%, software +3.4%, disk drive +3.4%, networking +2.6% and computer-hardware +2.2%. The only major sector average in the red is gold (-1.2%). Volume is running well ahead of average with market internals firmly bullish. NYSE Adv/Dec 2342/788, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2022/874

12:00PM: The market just keeps going, and going...there is no direct reason for the move...there is talk that funds are buying on the first day of the quarter, partly in anticipation of a year-end rally...also, technology stocks got a kick start from news that the CEO of PeopleSoft (PSFT 21.67) has left the firm...that suggests the deal with Oracle might go through...but that is a company specific issue, and wouldn't necessarily have broad implications...JP Morgan upgraded Applied Materials (AMAT 17.26) and Novellus (NVLS 28.14), and the has boosted the SOX, which often pushes the broad market...

still, there have been positive comments on semiconductors recently that had little impact...oil is down about 15 cents, but that is not a big deal...there were no major earnings reports, and the economic data (Michigan Sentiment and ISM Index) were both about as expected...Merck (MRK 33.56) is getting a bounce after a very bad day yesterday...overall though, the broad, strong rally has to be ascribed to an improving underlying sentiment spurred by small modestly positive news...earnings warnings are over, and earnings start up with Alcoa on October 7...

[54anickel]

39. Few more points on the DOW and resistance will be broken!!! Weeeeee!

DJIA SP500 NASDAQ
10500 1150 2000 ---- 2nd Upside target
10340 1135 1960 ---- 1st Upside target
10180 1114 1904 ---- Resistance
9900 1095 1810 ---- Support
9800 1085 1750 ---- 1st Downside Target
9600 1065 1720 ---- 2nd Downside Target



edit to add source:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/2004/0928.html

[54anickel]

40. Japanese Manufacturers' Confidence Rises to 26

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aMxnPS4ufZEk&refer=asia

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese manufacturers' confidence rose to the highest since 1991, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey showed, easing concern a recovery in the world's second- biggest economy is faltering.

The index of executives' confidence at large manufacturers rose to 26 in September from 22 in June, the bank said in Tokyo. The median forecast of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 23. A number above zero means optimists outnumber pessimists.

Companies including Kyocera Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. are reporting higher profits as sales of digital electronics and cars grow. A drop in unemployment in August and gains in production and exports suggest the economy is accelerating after second-quarter growth fell to the slowest pace in more than a year.

``The Japanese economy is heading in the right direction,'' Yasuo Nishiguchi, president of Kyocera, a maker of components used in cell phones, said in an interview today. ``It looks like there will be an improvement in electronics parts'' demand.

snip>

Record gasoline prices in the U.S. and lending curbs in China may curb demand in Japan's biggest overseas markets, hurting business confidence in coming months. Manufacturers said they expect the index to fall to 21 in the December survey, which would be the first decline since March 2003.

``We are almost definitely at the peak of the business cycle,'' said Martin Schulz, an economist at Fujitsu Research Institute.

more...

[54anickel]

41. Help Wanted

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/doctordinero/doctordinero100104.html

Senior Statistician

Bureau of Labor and Statistics is looking for a degreed statistician who can use his/her creativity to manipulate inputs so the desired results are obtained. Anticipate long hours in the next few months to hide the hyperinflationary effects of the Federal Reserve and the US Government. The current inflation indexes have been geared to hide inflation via the Asian Labor arbitrage. With the imminent dollar devaluation, we expect a complete overhaul of the indexes will be necessary. Applicant must be willing to use common stupidity, ignore historical trends, and have questionable morals.

Experience with manipulating derivative valuations a plus. Work experience with ENRON, Arthur Andersen, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac highly desirable.

For the right candidate, the pay will be lots of newly created Federal Reserve Notes*, with substantial bonus potential based on ability to manipulate the CPI. Position available immediately.

Qualified candidates should send their resume to [e-mail]

*

[54anickel]

42. 2:04 numbers & yada

Dow 10,163.45 +83.18 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq 1,932.39 +35.55 (+1.87%)
S&P 500 1,128.33 +13.75 (+1.23%)
10-yr Bond 4.183% +0.064
30-yr Bond 4.944% +0.053
NYSE Volume 1,035,152,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,212,252,000

2:00PM: The averages have inched slightly lower again in recent action with a brief run to $50 in crude oil eliciting a minor impact. This afternoon the car manufacturers have reported their sales figures for Sep. On a year-over-year basis General Motors (GM +1.3%) sales advanced 20% increase, Ford (F +0.6%) reported a 4% decline, Daimlerchrysler (DCX +2.8%) sales rose 13%, while Toyota (TM +1.4%) indicated sales increased 10.3%. NYSE Adv/Dec 2358/849, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2016/967

1:30PM: The indices have backed away from their respective session highs in recent trade with an intraday jump in crude oil (Nov contract hit 49.90) catching trader's attention. The dip, however, has been very limited thus far. The energy groups (natural gas +1.3%, oil +1%, oil service +2.4%) have lagged behind tech today but the crude oil push did trigger a run to fresh 52-wk highs in these sector averages. NYSE Adv/Dec 2380/805, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2028/920

1:05PM: Although the Nasdaq indices as well as the S&P 500 edged to fractional new session highs in recent action, the market appears to be a little tired in the wake of the morning sprint as the push elicited no follow through interest. The S&P 500 has thus far held near the trendline off the March/June highs which capped the upside in Sep and it will be interesting to see whether a breakout is seen or if minor afternoon profit taking develops. NYSE Adv/Dec 2376/793, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2029/901

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2362 (70%) 2017 (64%)
Declines 849 (25%) 958 (30%)
Unchanged 130 (3%) 153 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 849 (86%) 1010 (86%)
Down Vol* 124 (12%) 146 (12%)
Unch. Vol* 10 (1%) 12 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 299 120
New Lo's 14 29


The US Buck is still holding on pretty well

Last trade 87.68 Change +0.32 (+0.37%)

Settle 87.36 Settle Time 23:36

Open 87.46 Previous Close 87.36

High 87.78 Low 87.35

[54anickel]

43. U.S. stock rally checked as oil rises above $50

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041001/7dddc19d23f242a4a03112e3901c9b58_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks traded higher but off their best levels Friday as a rise in oil above $50 a barrel put a check on a broad-based rally led by the technology sector
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) was last up 83 points, at 10,163, off a morning high of 10,196.

Within the benchmark index, Merck (NYSE:MRK - News) put in a modest rebound, gaining just under 2 percent, after the company lost a quarter of its value Thursday on its decision to withdraw its blockbuster drug Vioxx.

snip>

Shares in PeopleSoft (NasdaqNM:PSFT - News) , which trades on the tech-rich index, extended gains after the Department of Justice said it wouldn't appeal a lower court's decision that Oracle's acquisition wouldn't break federal antitrust laws.

Hopes of a merger deal rose after the company fired its CEO Craig Conway CEO Craig Conway, citing "a loss of confidence" in his ability to lead the company. Conway has always opposed Oracle's $7.7 billon bid to acquire the company.

snip>

The ISM index fell to 58.5 percent in September from 59.0 percent in August, in line with expectations. The employment index however rose to 58.1 from 55.7 in August.

"What the employment uptick really does is tell us that maybe next Friday we're going to a better-than-expected employment report," which suggests the soft patch in the economy may be ending, said Paulson.

snip>

Commenting on Thursday night's presidential debate, Boockvar said the consensus is that "Kerry did a much better job than Bush."

"The market rallied because they thought Bush would win so I'm not quite sure what it means for the markets right now." Read reaction to debate .

Meanwhile, traders in political futures in two electronic markets are still betting that President Bush will be re-elected, but his lead slipped following the debate with John Kerry

more about October...

[54anickel]

44. AT&T Cutting Deeper

http://www.thestreet.com/tech/scottmoritz/10185657.html

AT&T (T:NYSE - news - research) is shedding more jobs and planning a big write-off as the telecom industry fails to pull out of its tailspin.

AT&T in the coming days is expected to announce the layoff of several thousand additional workers, as well as an asset writedown approaching $10 billion, according to people familiar with the company.

Company representatives say AT&T reached its target of cutting 8% of its staff earlier this year and likely will end up exceeding that total. They declined to comment further.

Not surprisingly, most of the cuts are expected to come from the consumer unit, where the company is beating a retreat in the wake of recent regulatory setbacks. But people familiar with the plan say AT&T's industry-leading business services division is also being scaled down, as ongoing price wars take their toll.

Evidence of a cutback push has been growing in the past weeks. AT&T's union was notified of job reductions, and employees across various lines of business received termination notices. Earlier this month, Lehman Brothers analyst Blake Bath issued a research report that pointed to a new round of layoffs that could take out an additional 7,000 people and a possible writedown of $8.5 billion in impaired assets.

more...

[54anickel]

45. Gold prices turn higher, end up 3% for the week

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=1096654525-9e32d306-38348

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- December gold climbed 80 cents to close at $421.20 an ounce in New York, after trading as low as $418.50 earlier. It's up almost 3 percent for week. "The real test of a market is when it continues to move higher in spite of a lack of support from other markets or economic news," said Dale Doelling, chief market commentator at Bullion.com. "This is the definition of a bull market, and that's what gold is currently experiencing." This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com

[54anickel]

46. 3:06 Pixie dust flying everywhere

Dow 10,191.25 +110.98 (+1.10%)
Nasdaq 1,940.27 +43.43 (+2.29%)
S&P 500 1,131.00 +16.42 (+1.47%)
10-yr Bond 4.193% +0.074
30-yr Bond 4.952% +0.061
NYSE Volume 1,234,001,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,441,828,000

2:55PM: The averages have pushed higher over the last half hour or so with the Dow rising more than 30 points. There has not been a trigger evident (oil remains near $50) with it potentially attributable to what was suggested earlier, a fear of missing out on the move. The Nasdaq 100, which is dominated by large cap techs which have lagged much of the year, the Nasdaq Comp along with the S&P 500 have recently set new session highs with the Dow just below. Volume continues at a strong clip. NYSE Adv/Dec 2384/847, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2033/975
2:30PM: The averages backed away from their midday highs this afternoon but it was not an aggressive slide despite the run in crude oil back to the $50 range with a minor rebound in the averages currently underway. The early run, which was bolstered by a number of factors including a semi upgrade, bullish economic comments, bond declines among others, also had a hint of panic buying. Fund managers that have lagged behind the averages amid this year's slow drift south feared missing out on the next leg higher at the start of the quarter now that warnings season is out of the way. NYSE Adv/Dec 2338/892, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1990/1013

Things might be shapin' up pretty good just before election time- NAH!

[bain_sidhe]

47. Rational exuberance?

My take: The market's up because Kerry did so well, and traders sense that the long national nightmare that is the bu**sh** residency is about to end. :D

Ok, maybe that a bit of my own exuberance, but still even those who purport to be supporting the chimp in charge aren't stupid... they know that "staying the course" is absolutely the wrong thing to do when you're driving over a cliff. (Unless you're Thelma and Louise - and that's my new "meme" - this is the Thelma and Louise Administration.)

[54anickel]

48. SNARF! Good one "Thelma and Louise Administration" n/t

[progressivebydesign]

52. That was my feeling.. the traders are happy t hat Kerry won!

That's NOT far-fetched. Remember when the Chicago traders were chanting "KERRY, KERRY, KERRY" on the trading floor when some really awful economic numbers were released last month??? THey're smart people.. they KNOW that a new president, a GOOD president, will jumpstart the economy starting with the all important consumer confidence. The economy builds from the CONSUMER up!! Trickle down never works.. the traders probably realize that the money needs to be in the hands of the spenders, so they're hoping for a Kerry win on Nov. 2nd.

[Amigust]

55. They see the possibility of a gridlocked Congress and administration,

which means less government spending and even the *possibility* of deficit reduction, given enough time to restore sane fiscal management.

Couple this with stock replacement after end-of-quarter window dressing.

Add to this any manipulation by BushCo to make $things$ seem better than they are, leading into Nov 2.

I'm curious to see if the market takes any hits later in October, often a pretty bad month.

[54anickel]

51. Holy Jack-pot Batman!!! Look at them numbers

Dow 10,192.65 +112.38 (+1.11%)
Nasdaq 1,942.20 +45.36 (+2.39%)
S&P 500 1,131.51 +16.93 (+1.52%)
10-yr Bond 4.191% +0.072
30-yr Bond 4.949% +0.058
NYSE Volume 1,586,539,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,807,702,000

[54anickel]

54. Blather to go with that (reads like the perfect set up for a fleecing down

the road) :shrug:

Close: The market headed into the session with a head of steam thanks to an upgrade in the semi sector (AMAT +4.9%, NVLS +5.1%, TER +7.1%), positive economic comments from a Fed Governor and a favorable reaction to the departure of the CEO at PeopleSoft (PSFT +14.9%) which was being interpreted as meaning that a deal with Oracle (ORCL + ) was now more likely. Underlying these positives was the recent upside momentum amid window dressing/asset allocation shifts out of Treasuries and the fact that today marked the start of the fourth quarter when fresh cash is often put to work. It has been a difficult year for funds as the market has drifted slowly lower. Given that many have been anticipating a year-end rally along with the fear of missing out on the next leg higher (now that earnings warning season is out of the way) and it was a near vertical run higher into midday. Leading the charge were many of the large cap tech names which have lagged most of the year (Nasdaq 100 paced the way higher +2.8%). The early economic data was generally in line with expectations and appeared to have relatively little impact. Top performing sectors included semi +4.6%, software +4.1%, disk drive +4.6%, networking +2.7%, computer-hardware +2.4% with little in the red other than gold (-0.8%). Volume was higher than recent sessions and well above average while market internals were firmly bullish. DOT +2.4%, Nasdaq 100 +2.8%, Russell 2000 +2.1%, SOX +4.6%, S&P Midcap 400 +1.4%, XOI +1.2%, NYSE Adv/Dec 24.45/145, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2179/901

3:30PM : The push to fresh session highs noted at the top of the hour (except for the Dow) did not develop any follow through with the averages slipping back slightly in recent action. Topping the gainers list in the Dow are HPQ +2.3%, DIS +2.3%, MSFT +2%, HON +2.1% with MMM -0.1% the only loser today. The only release on the economic calendar for Monday is Factory Orders (consensus +0.3%) with just Thor (THO +3.7) and Ruby Tuesday (RI -0.4%) scheduled to release earnings. NYSE Adv/Dec 2396/868, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2078/949

Hurry up kiddies, the bus is leaving!

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2444 (71%) 2179 (67%)
Declines 831 (24%) 901 (27%)
Unchanged 145 (4%) 138 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 1361 (85%) 1541 (84%)
Down Vol* 215 (13%) 283 (15%)
Unch. Vol* 14 (0%) 10 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 345 143
New Lo's 16 32


Have a great weekend! :hi: