Breaking - New IBD/Christian Science Monitor Poll Shows Kerry Taking Lead

[ruggerson]

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm


Likely

Kerry 46
Bush 45


This one should be mediablasted everywhere. Force CNN to cover it.

Meme is: Kerry The Comeback Kid.

[dennis4868]

1. and PEW HAS IT BUSH 48, KERRY 40....

:wtf:

[papau]

15. Pew poll is not internally consistent unless mass voter ID change

I do not think there has been such a move.
http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/226demographic.pdf
GOP 90- 3 (7)
DEM 10-81 (9)
IND 46-38 (16)

are split in voting by party,

but 48-40 has 12 not sure, which needs something close to 50% ind,

with say GOP at 26 and Dem at 24 (not exact as I did not actually solve - but close)

Not mathematically possible(?) with 95% confidence in a sea of 35/35/30 party split

[Carla in Ca]

26. Only Zogby is fair, the only one to consider truthful.

Did you see that Bink at Dailykos is calling for Wolf Blitzer to resign for constantly reporting bogus Gallup polls?
<http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/28/211936/183>

I think this deserves a DU mass email!

[wrate]

37. Did you say Spew? :) n/t

[rawstory]

2. But it doesnt have Nader? That's really stupid of them.

I can't even put it up on my liberal news site responsibly -- sans Nader, it's a useless poll, because Nader's on the ballot in a lot of these swing states. That's too bad.

[ruggerson]

5. Yep, there's also numbers with Nader

Likely Voters

Kerry 45
Bush 45
Nader 2

[quaoar]

7. It does include Nader

Check the site again. They have it one way without Nader and then with Nader. With Nader it's a 45-45 tie.

[rawstory]

9. I'm dumb.

confirmed!

[Bat Boy]

40. But Nader only takes votes away from Bush...

There's obviously some sort of mistake.

(sarcasm in G#min)

[The Backlash Cometh]

3. Just in time, CNN is pounding the Gallup poll like an old rug.

[wryter2000]

12. Let CNN keep pounding Gallup

Let them get complacent, and then...ka-pow-ee!

[Cooley Hurd]

4. CSM is very reputable...

This is GREAT news!!!:thumbsup:

[SteppingRazor]

6. CSM

Particularly with political coverage, CSM's one of the best papers in the country. It's about as unbiased as you can get.

[sendero]

31. CSM..

... is the only news source I trust implicitly, and I'm not even a Christian :)

I know nothing of their polling methodology, but if they attempt to be as fair as thier journalism is, it has to be good.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

33. I'm a Christian, but not a Scientist...

so I trust them, too!

[lil-petunia]

34. and I cheered the Moniter over the Merrimack

So I agree. These guys do play it straight with news and polls.

[Hans Delbrook]

45. Both

Well I'm a Christian and a scientist and I trust them too :) I've found their coverage over the past year to be really thoughtful and balanced.

[krkaufman]

8. Sounds like it's about time for an upgrade....

... in the terror alert status. Helloooo ORANGE!!!

http://www.ready.gov/

[nolabels]

38. Normally October is a quiet month....................

But during a contentious election year nothing is quiet in October.


http://www.welfarestate.com/irancontra/

http://www.octobersurprise.net/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=8\

The October Surprise

Robert Parry has written a number of stories pursuing the strong evidence that Reagan and Bush made an all-out effort to sabotage Jimmy Carter's efforts to win the release of the Iranian-held hostages before the November election, the episode known as the October Surprise.
In 1995, Parry became privy to a host of files that had been locked in a deserted bathroom in DC. Read about what he found when he started going through these files in this series of stories (descriptions from Parry's October Surprise page)
(snip)
http://www.webcom.com/~lpease/collections/denied/octsurprise.htm

[JoFerret]

10. If Kerry and all of us keep up..

....the work and the pressure it will be Kerry in a landslide and Bush/BFEEand the entire GOP in meltdown

[OneBlueSky]

11. there's a huge hidden Kerry vote that most polls aren't catching . . .

he should win the popular vote easily . . . but that doesn't mean that the touch screen machines will report it as such . . . they own the whole voting apparatus in this country, and can pretty much make the results come out any way they want . . . and you can be sure it won't be in Kerry's favor . . .

[Just Me]

21. I agree,...short of martial law,...KERRY WIN WITH A LANDSLIDE!!!

CSM may be the closest to accurately reflecting what is happening on the ground but none capture the energy or essence.

Those who see the train coming, are helping to move the rest of the country out of the way.

This is the most impressive mass movement, EVER!!!

We're gonna eat the right-wing sharks, alive!!!

:bounce:

[ruggerson]

27. kick

[CityDem]

13. Ray of hope

At least we have one credible poll that shows this is a race.

[BiggJawn]

14. I'll bet I could get you a Bush:99 Kerry:1 poll...

Just have to be a LEEETLE selective in which MBA Profs I poll.....

The only poll that counts is the one they're taking on November 2nd.

It's not justhere, my ESSO has "Chimp's Ahead-osis" too...

[OKNancy]

16. I so wish that on the week after the election

there will be stories like this:

How did the polls go wrong?

Did the media fall down on the job?

Media bias doesn't sway the electorate.

Why didn't the media forcast the big Kerry win?

-----

[BootinUp]

17. Gallup's excuse last time

was that the Bush DWI story caused him to hemorage right at the end, as their polls showed him to have a significant advantage. Thats my vague recollection.

[Hand]

19. Jaysus Kee-rist! Can you say LAME?!?!?!?!?!?

What a pile of horse manure; Gallup is now run by George Gallup's son, who's apparently something of a crazed fundy, and their methods aren't worth a bucket of warm you-know-what.

Until I learned this (right here on DU), I was reluctant to take the "Ignore Gallup" advice that readily. Now it's a slam dunk, as George Tenet :puke: would say.

Pity. George Gallup was pretty good in his day; well, he wasn't *that* good.

[Gloria]

24. Gallup is not run by George Jr.....George Jr. is a religious nut, but he

runs his own religious polling out of Hopewell, NJ and he must be pushing 80 by now....The Gallup Organization was sold to an outfit located in Nebraska or some such place years ago....They have an office in Princeton for image....When I last visited, only 1 person from when I worked there in the around 79-80 was on the payroll.

George Sr. is spinning in his grave now, I'm sure....

[Hand]

32. Thanx for this info...

That clears up the "Who runs Gallup?" question. It sounds like the company bears little resemblance to the original, beyond the name. That our so-called "news" organizations rely on this hollow shell speaks volumes about THEM, of course. Still, what would you expect from people who claim that Charles Gibson, Paula Zahn, Leslie ("Wolf") Blitzer, Katie Couric, et al., are "journalists"?

:grr:

[MasonJar]

18. In my precinct (which I am responsible to get Kerry voters identi-

fied and to the polls) I have been canvassing and there are several Pug spouses that are voting for Kerry, even though they are registered Pug.

[T Bone]

20. to the top with this

:kick:
who ya gonna call, pollbusters !

[ruggerson]

23. kick n/t

[alfredo]

41. In my canvassing, even if they are voting bush, they are supporting

Democrats for local and congressional races.


I'd love to see how the congressional races are going. It appears that we will pick up a seat or two in our state.

[Zorra]

22. The Comeback Kid...can't keep a good man down.

It only gets better from here.

Let's keep the pressure on folks - the freeps are panicking, democracy is coming back to America.

[JackDragna]

25. Still not quite in the lead, per se..

..the margin of error has to be greater than one percent. Still, it's better than all the polls giving the president a lead from 7-10 points.

[kysrsoze]

28. I say, "Yay for one of the few impartial news sources left!"

CSM rocks! They are known as THE most balanced news source.

[goodhue]

29. wind in the sails

eom

[Charles19]

30. What are the numbers for just everyone, not only likely voters?

[strizi64]

35. Kerry is THE closer

and he will win in a landslide :).....

[On the Road]

36. Just Blasted it To Everyone in MD, DC, and VA

next will be OH, PA, and FL.

[sofa king]

39. Sorry if I sound negative, but I think this is bad.

We've already seen plenty of examples of polls being not-so-subtly manipulated.

Many DU readers, like me, have become convinced that the polls are being engineered in order to sell more news and more polls. But there could be a darker side. As MoveOn suggests, the polls may be manipulated in order to influence the election itself in favor of one of the candidates.

MoveOn also points out that the news source often merely tacks its name on the poll results for the privilege of being the first to announce the results. That may mean that even CSM's good name is suspect.

This "tightening up" in the days before the first debate is, frankly, frightening to me.

What if the pollsters are merely trying to even the playing field so that they can return to the Bush-weighted methodology in post-debate polls, thereby declaring Bush the "winner"?

This could be the ultimate cheap shot.

[demoman123]

44. That sure is a complicated theory.

Try shaving with Ockham's Razor! :)

[lojasmo]

42. MOE, but pew is encouraging N/T

[TankLV]

43. Irregardless of what the acfual numbers are, all the polls prove that

Kerry's numbers are going up and bunkerboy's are tanking all across the board.

What these guys cannot deny, is that Kerry had the momentum, while the repukes are COLLAPSING.

[NNN0LHI]

46. Its a damn LIE! Kerry is down by at least 10 points. Maybe 20?

Keep fighting harder. We need Congress back too if Kerry is going to have any chance at all of undoing the many screw-ups by Chimpy during the last 4 years.

To quote a dear friend of mine...Lets go get those Bush bastards!

Don