HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 52 - 4 AM CDT

[Swamp Rat]

WTNT34 KNHC 150837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...LARGE HURRICANE IVAN DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...WINDS ALREADY INCREASING...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF
IVAN WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY
THREE.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 938
MB...27.70 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER. WATER LEVELS ARE
ALREADY RUNNING UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...AND WILL BE INCREASING TODAY.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS HURRICANE IVAN
APPROACHES THE COAST.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...26.1 N... 87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/150837.shtml?

******
Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
(Recommended: GOES Storm Floater 2, Water Vapor Image Loop)

[Lady Effingbroke]

1. Take care, Swamp_Rat

I hate to see this thing make landfall anywhere...it's gonna be rough. I hope everyone in the path of Ivan makes it through safely! :hug: Thanks to all DUers for the continuing updates - it's been a busy hurricane season, and I'm looking forward to it being over.

[JoFerret]

2. Some can't evacuate New Orleans for Ivan (no city shelters)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=1&u=/ap/20040915/ap_on_re_us/hurricane_ivan

NEW ORLEANS - Fleeing to safety was not an option for some people as 140-mph Hurricane Ivan churned toward the Gulf Coast, threatening to submerge the below-sea-level city in what could be the most disastrous storm to hit in nearly 40 years.

Latonya Hill, who waited out the dangerous storm sitting on her stoop Tuesday, said the official pleas for residents to pack up and leave meant little to her.

"Got no place to go and no way to get there," said the 57-year-old grandmother, who lives on a disability check and money she picks up cleaning houses or baby sitting.


"They say evacuate, but they don't say how I'm supposed to do that," Hill said. "If I can't walk it or get there on the bus, I don't go. I don't got a car. My daughter don't either."

Hill is among the estimated 100,000 people in New Orleans who rely on city transportation to get around, making evacuation impossible for them. Yet, no shelters were open in the city as of Tuesday night and there were no plans to open any.

<more>

[kayell]

5. The shame of this country

is that in a land of such incredible wealth, the poor are still considered expendable.

Edit: OK, just one of our shames, but one of our defining ones. We judge the worth of people everywhere, and even their right to live, based only on their finances.

[Sugarbleus]

3. All my very best wishes and best hopes for those in the path

of that Hurricane. I'm so sorry for all having to go through it.

What an extremely difficult year this has been so far. Please take good care all.....keep us posted. :hug:

[Briarius]

4. Forcast Track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W+GIF/150858W.gif

[Pachamama]

6. Don't be brave and "surf" this one out....can you leave N'Orleans, Swamp'r

I got a bad feeling about this one....I think its going to do a "Charley" number and switch intensity (gain) and shift its path at the last minute and then bring lots, lots of rain and flooding to N'Orleans......Do you have "higher ground" to go to? Take your pix, computer system and few belongings you care for (sentimentally) if possible and get out of town....Like I said, Pachamama has a real bad feeling about this one....:hi: