NOAA - HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 54 - 4 PM CDT

[Swamp Rat]

WTNT34 KNHC 152041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IVAN BEARING DOWN ON NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH
OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE VERY LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT IVAN
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE
OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 290 MILES. SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN STATION
WERE RECENTLY CLOCKED AT 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 59 MPH. A BUOY
ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND REPORTED 50 FT SEAS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N... 88.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 933 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/152041.shtml?

******
Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

[Karenina]

1. Stay safe, Swamp_Rat!

:hug:

[graywarrior]

2. I'm gonna pray it slows to a Cat 1 or TS

We're all thinking of you.

[Swamp Rat]

5. Thanks

;-)

[Swamp Rat]

4. Thank you Karenina

The wind is starting to pick up. I don't know how much longer we'll have power, so I may disappear from DU for a while. :cry: How can I listen to Air America without my computer?! There's no way I'm listening to Clear Channel!

[Individualist]

8. Batten down the hatches

and stay safe, Swamp Rat!

[Swamp Rat]

10. Thanks!

Wind is starting to pick up... here it comes. I wonder how much longer we'll have power. I'm gonna go crazy if I can't log onto DU or listen to Air America! :crazy:

:hi:

[hatrack]

3. Pressure's dropping - 939 to 933 in three hours

As Samuel L. Jackson said in Jurassic Park, "Hold on to your butts!"

[Emboldened Chimp]

6. Is that good or bad?

I'm meteorogically-challenged.

[hatrack]

9. It's bad - the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm nt

.

[Dudley_DUright]

12. Bad

In general, the lower the pressure, the stronger the hurricane.

[laylah]

7. I heard on NPR

about 1pm CST that while Ivan will hit N'arleans, Mobile will get a direct hit! Please...stay safe!

Jenn

[Wilber_Stool]

11. 04:150pm EDT 09-15-04

[daleo]

13. That is an amazing picture

I hope it's not as bad as it looks.

[TahitiNut]

15. Wow! That image would make an excellent desktop or screensaver.

That's damned near the most classic hurricane formation I've seen, The eye is awesome.

[jdj]

14. Thanks for posting.

I'll say a prayer of protection for you.

Neither my brother in Gulf Breeze (of all the @#$! places) or my best friend in Mobile are going to evac.

I am so worried.

I don't want it to hit beautiful New Orleans either, with the termites having eaten through the buildings down there, it might not ever look the same.

I officially declare that no more hurricanes will be allowed this year. Any appearing will be turned away.

[ezekiel333]

16. Thanks for posting Swap Rat

Things in Panama City are getting ugly. The first big band that came through spawned a bunch of tornadoes. 1 confirmed death and 2 more unconfirmed. One tornado on Panama City Beach wiped out a good sized restaurant and damaged several other buildings. Lots of power outages in different areas. The next band is expected in an hour or so and then the major winds for the next few hours.

How's things in the Big Easy?

Stay safe!

[hatrack]

17. Weather Channel guys were guessing 30-40-foot waves in FL

One of the barrier island areas (Destin? Does that sound correct?)

This is going to move a shitload of sand, and maybe for a few days, people in Florida will realize the folly of building on barrier islands.

[ezekiel333]

22. Folly

I haven't gotten any word about wave heights but that could be right. And yes, hopefully some will realize how stupid it is to develop the barrier islands. But then again on Panama City Beach there is a condo boom and 20 new high rises are being built right on the edge of the beach, so I think that alone would call into question the sanity of any Florida coastal developers/investors. Oops, I used sanity and Florida in the same sentence, sorry.

I hope all are staying safe and remaining calm as Ivan closes in.

Later...

[yardwork]

26. I wish that were the case - unfortunately, hasn't worked in NC so far

[susanna]

30. You're not kidding n/t

[Swamp Rat]

37. We're OK. I guess the vodou ceremony we had was successful.

I woke up a couple of hours ago - so exhasted from preparing for Ivan. We seem to be out of the path, though I'm woried about friends that live from here to Mobile along the Gulf coast. We lost power on my block for only one hour.

I hope you're OK. :hi:

[skip fox]

18. I've been through a few in Lafayette, LA. NONE like Ivan.

They say cat. 3 is 1/2 the damage of cat. 4.

I was shocked at the ferocity of a high cat. 2 (by the time Lily got to me two years ago).

As you know, Swamp Rat, not time to leave now. Good luck. My prayers are with you.
You'll have a over 12 hours of a time that is as frightening as as anything I've experienced.

[Eloriel]

20. Prayers for your safety here too, Swamp Rat

I'm also hoping you won't have to live up to your name over the next few days. :evilgrin:

[Swamp Rat]

38. Thanks

Ivan just nicked us. :hi:

[Palacsinta]

19. Good luck!

My nephew at Tulane caught the last flight out to Dallas.

[colorado_ufo]

21. Hang in there, Swamp Rat!

My Mom, brother, sisters-in-law, and three cats headed out Monday. One brother and his lady are staying. So are other family members further north in the state, as well as in MS.

Wish you were here in Colorado . . . (besides, we need your vote for Kerry!)

[moobu2]

23. 2 people were killed in Panama City Fl. a little while ago.

From a tornado.

The power is going on and off here in west Mobile but it's still on...I expect it to be out any minute.

Winds are gusting very, very strong.

They're saying there's a 50+ ft wave off shore close to the eye, I guess they measure that from the buoys (sp).

Good luck to all in Ivan's path..

[Eye and Monkey]

28. And best to y'all in Mobile

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

24. What's left of the eye is supposed to be on top of my house Friday

in Huntsville.

Noaa says the sustained winds will only be appx. 37mph so it should be mild compared to what you're going to see.

Even though they're closing the schools tomorrow (instead of Friday??? I don't understand that one.)

Good luck, kiddo!

[vajraroshana]

31. Me too

I'm in Huntsville also and I have friends that work in public safety, and they're really concerned about flooding. You know it seems that they close down schools in Huntsville over the slightest threat of anything, but this time it looks justified. There's probably going to be some major flooding in Huntsville. And major power outages also, even with all the "tree scalping" they've been doing the past few years.

Prayers and best wishes for you folks down on the coast. This one doesn't look like it's going to let up in intensity a bit.

Major, major storm for all of us here.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

47. I'm with you. I think the major problem will be flooding, the temps are

stable enough to where (I hope) there won't be enough temp inversion to feed tornados for very long.

[yardwork]

25. How's everyone doing?

I've been thinking about everybody in the path of the storm today. I hope everyone is ok.

[Eye and Monkey]

27. In New Orleans, the Superdome is now open as a shelter

Up until a hour-two ago, it was only open for medical needs. Radio reports 300 "retired Nat'l Guard" on hand to help maintain order.

Winds at airport in New Orleans from the north at 30-35 mph. I'm across the Lake from New Orleans, winds a bit less here. No rain. I talked with folks further east of here, close to Mississippi - it's just a bit stronger. The storm's not here yet.

[Eloriel]

33. 100,000 stranded on the roads

is what I just heard on MSNBC re New Orleans area. And my brother was just telling me about the place he lived for a while in Slidell, just across the street from Lake Pontchartrain (sp?), a place that is just inches above the Lake level anyway. Scarey.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

34. Stranded on those roads is a death sentence!

I hope the Ponchartrain hiway isn't backed up

[Eye and Monkey]

36. Roads in South Louisiana have been clear since this afternoon...

Unless the radio here is more propaganda than I thought, that jibes with what I've heard from folks who were out on a couple major roads earlier today/tonite.

Radio says NOLA curfew will be lifted tomorrow at 6am, people can return to Orleans Parish around noon tomorrow, Jefferson by mid-afternoon. Weather-casters are saying it's more or less over for South Louisiana.

ALOT of people from NOLA just got in the cars and drove - and justifiably so. There's been such a rush for gas that many/most gas stations in 100 miles of NOLA are probably out, and almost for sure all within 50 miles are out. There will be ALOT of folks who will have problems with that. I know there's alot of folks who evacuated and they didn't have the extra money to spend on gas and a hotel room.

Tell ya what - I've got an extra 5 gallon jerrycan that it looks like I won't be needing immediately. Tomorrow morning when I go check on my folks, I'll swing out to the interstate and see if anyone ran out on their way home to NOLA. Thanks for planting the seed that grew into that idea.

[Eloriel]

48. That's a wonderful idea. Good for you.

Hope your family is all safe and comfy.

[Pachamama]

35. Knowing Swamp Rat, he'll be organizing a DU rally at the Superdome and

making sure the Alien Lizards can't survive.....

:hi: Swamp'r! Thinking of you....stay safe! I know Swamp Rat's "surf" the water and wind, but this is not a good time to start!

[Swamp Rat]

39. Oi Pachamama

Looks liked we were spared Ivan the Terrible. I guess the vodou ceremony we had really worked. I'm glad I didn't leave - it was and still is Hell for all those folks stuck on the highway. One lady was on her cell phone and called a local CBS affiliate saying that it took her nearly six hours to drive 30 miles (West on I-10) and it took some folks 12 hours to get to Baton Rouge! I watched the satellite imagery and waited all night long until I knew whether I had to leave or not.

:hi:

edit: Since you mentioned alien lizards, I thought I'd post one fo' ya. This reptile is on the verge of a nervous breakdown:

[Eye and Monkey]

43. WWL has folks calling in who've already come back into NOLA tonite

Curfew's still on, but...

May things go well in Mobile.

[frustrated_lefty]

29. More on New Orleans:

I took my 3 kids out earlier to blow bubbles, and let them experience the initial winds which precede a hurricane. The idea was to let them begin to understand the power of nature, viscerally.

We're about 12 blocks from LSU. The rain (as of ~9:30 p.m.) is fairly heavy, the wind....well, to a home-grown New Orleanian, it's kinda wimpy.

My heart goes out to the people in Mobile. This is a nasty storm, and it's going to cause substantial damage. It's going to affect a large number of people in a damaging way, but it won't be in Louisiana.

[Dover]

32. Almost all of the hotels and motels from N.Orleans to Austin Texas

are full. Refuge from the storm. Pretty crowded here, but glad to have everyone taking it so seriously....we'll make room.

[Swamp Rat]

40. Thanks to all well-wishers on this thread. Let's hope folks near Mobile

will be safe. :hug: :grouphug:

[LizW]

41. Shelter in the Pensacola Civic Center has water coming inside

There are 1500 to 2000 people there. CNN guy just reported that their crew left there and moved 5 or 6 miles further from the beach.

I also read on another message board that the West Beach Road in Gulf Shores was dissolving as of 4:00 this afternoon. There were reportedly at least three places that were impassable. Fortunately, it sounds like most if not all people left the area.

I'm worried about the local news guys who are on the barrier island where Gulf Shores is. I've been flipping channels, but haven't seen a report from them for a while.

[LizW]

44. Okay, really freaky

The CNN guy who is just north of Gulf Shores was talking on the air as the eye reached him. In the space of just a couple of minutes the wind died and it got almost totally quiet.

[Eye and Monkey]

45. It's goose-bump eerie when it happens

And when the eye passes, the sudden shock and howl...

[vajraroshana]

42. Wow, I can't believe how well organized the eyewall still is...

And it's just about to hit. My parents' house is in Foley and it looks like it's going to go right on top of them. And my aunt and uncle live in Mobile.

I know my parents got out, don't know about my aunt and uncle. They're reporting on the news that there aren't even any rooms left all the way up here in Huntsville, people are having to keep driving north into Tennessee.

[Swamp Rat]

46. Update - New thread started

NOAA - HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 55B - 2 AM CDT

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x830563