STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 22 September

[ozymandius]

Wednesday September 22, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 120
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 41
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 285 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 339 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 552
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1035
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 21, 2004

Dow... 10,244.93 +40.04 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq... 1,921.18 +13.11 (+0.69%)
S&P 500... 1,129.30 +7.10 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.04% -0.02 (-0.44%)
Gold future... 410.10 +3.20 (+0.78%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.63 Change +0.50 (+0.57%)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6302720

Dollar Struggles Up After Stumble

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar struggled up from a one-month low against the euro on Wednesday after the U.S. central bank raised interest rates, as expected, but indicated little rush for more aggressive hikes in the coming months.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to 1.75 percent on Tuesday, its third quarter-point hike since June when it ended a long period of super-low borrowing costs.

The dollar hit a one-month low against the euro and lost over one percent against the Swiss franc after the announcement, as the accompanying statement said inflation pressures and inflation expectations had eased.

"The inflation comment is supporting the view that the gradual tightening of monetary policy will not accelerate and might even take a small pause when we come toward the end of the year," said Niels Christensen, currency strategist at Societe Generale in Paris.

<snip>

The euro hit a one-month high against the yen for a second consecutive day as high oil prices and a further slide in Tokyo's stock market undermined the Japanese currency.

The dollar also made gains, climbing nearly half a percent to 110.25 yen.

...more...

http://www.business-standard.com/common/storypage.php?hpFlag=Y&chklogin=N&autono=167838&leftnm=lmnu3&lselect=0&leftindx=3

BoJ to stop buying shares from banks

Bank to retain shares on which it booked profit of nearly ¥650 bn until April 2007.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ)will draw a line under one of the most extraordinary chapters in its history at the end of this month when it ends a scheme to purchase shares from banks.

Its decision to halt the unorthodox policy, under which it bought nearly ¥2,000 billion ($18.2 billion) shares from commercial banks, signals a belief that enough has been done to restore stability to the financial system.

One BoJ official said: “It looks like this measure has attained its original goal and so there is no need to extend this somewhat extraordinary policy.”

The bank will hold on to shares, on which it booked a profit of nearly ¥650 billion in the year to March, until April 2007. It will then sell the shares in companies, whose identities have remained secret, over the following 10 years.

The central bank’s surprise decision in September 2002 to print money to buy shares in corporate Japan was widely interpreted as a desperate measure to put a floor under the sliding stock market and protect the financial system from systemic risk.

The BoJ had been concerned that pressure from the government on banks to unload cross-shareholdings was creating a vicious spiral that had sent the stock market plummeting. Low share prices were in turn threatening the banking system’s capital adequacy ratios given the huge amount of equity that banks were holding on their balance sheet.

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=1095839198-9e32d306-12469

RPT BoJ´s Iwata says Japan economy remains on sustainable recovery path

TOKYO (AFX) - Bank of Japan (BoJ) deputy governor Kazumasa Iwata said Japan's economic recovery remains on track, despite a recent series of weak economic data that has cast doubts over the sustainability of its export-led recovery

The Ministry of Finance (MoF) announced this morning that Japan's merchandise trade surplus in August dropped by 26.0 pct from a year earlier to 576.1 bln yen -- the first fall in 14 months -- due to surging crude oil prices

The August trade data, which came in far below the consensus forecast, joined the long list of disappointing indicators that has produced uncertainty over Japan's export-led recovery

"The August data imply that export activity is most likely to gradually lose its ability to strongly lead economic growth in Japan, as demand in China and the US is slowing down," Taro Saito, an economist at NLI Research Institute, said

But the BoJ deputy governor challenged this view, saying: "I believe there is no change to my view that the global, as well as the Japanese economy, are on the path to move out of a prolonged period of deflation and head towards reflation." "This time, the underlying strength of the recovery in the Japanese economy is much more solid than in past economic recoveries, judging from progress in balance sheet restructuring and bad debt resolution, as well as rises in productivity and strong corporate profit growth," Iwata added

...more...

No reports due today.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[ozymandius]

5. Dollar gets little help from the Fed

NEW YORK (AFP) - The dollar traded mostly lower, failing to get a lift from a Federal Reserve (news - web sites) quarter-point rate hike that had been widely expected and priced into the market.


The euro traded at 1.2330 dollars, from 1.2173 late Monday in New York. The dollar was trading at 109.73 yen after 109.80 on Monday.

-cut-

The Federal Open Market Committee (news - web sites) statement, similar to its comments in August, suggests that it sees stabilizing US economic conditions that can support higher interest rates.

"After moderating earlier this year, partly in response to the substantial rise in energy prices, output growth appears to have regained some traction, and labor market conditions have improved modestly," the statement said.

story

[ozymandius]

10. Eurozone bond yields fall to 5-1/2 month low

Ten-year Eurozone government bond yields fell to a 5-1/2 month low, breaching the 4 per cent level, in response to the Federal Reserve (news - web sites)'s latest rate rise that traders saw as holding inflation in check.

-cut-

But the decline in yields was less marked at the shorter end of the spectrum because the market had to absorb an EU8.3bn issue of new two-year German bonds and hawkish comments from Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European central bank.

story

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning all.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

There is no WrapUp today. The folks at FSO did not post it. Meanwhile, the WrapUp that I posted yesterday was dated August 31. Go figure. Maybe someone is asleep on the west coast?

Ozymandius

[UpInArms]

3. Growing Signs of a Slowing on Wall Street

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/22/business/22wall.html

Wall Street's earnings growth, fueled by two years of robust trading gains, is showing signs that it may taper off in coming quarters as a sluggish stock market and a less- favorable trading environment take a toll on profits.

Having taken full advantage of the bull market in bonds, investment firms had entered the summer with the expectation that the nascent economic recovery would unleash a flood of high-margin banking deals and public offerings.

But, as the third-quarter results of Goldman Sachs showed yesterday, investment banking deals and initial public offerings have been in short supply, forcing the firm to continue to rely on its trading operations, which saw growth shrink by 26 percent compared with the previous quarter.

On the surface, Goldman's results were impressive; earnings up 30 percent from the quarter a year ago blew by the expectations of Wall Street analysts. Investors also cheered, pushing the stock up 3.5 percent for the day. Shares of Lehman Brothers, which reported that quarterly earnings rose 5 percent from a year ago, surged 5 percent.

Still, the sterling numbers from Goldman Sachs and Lehman mask a continuing slump in their investment banking and equities capital markets business that is likely to show up in the results of Morgan Stanley and Bear, Stearns, which report on Wednesday, and Merrill Lynch, which follows a month later. If the trend persists, 2005 may offer new challenges for Wall Street banks that continue to wait for a rebound in the ever-cyclical banking business.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. Layoffs, Acquisitions, Contracts Top Area News

(had to post this 'cause I just couldn't get over the "blessed" line)

http://www.sandiego.com/sdbusiness.jsp?id=382

SAN DIEGO -- The region has been blessed with better-than-expected gains in employment this year, but the manufacturing sector has struggled to keep pace, losing a net 300 jobs last month. Today, Overland Storage Inc. said it is eliminating 140 more of the generally high-paying jobs -- about one third of its workforce -- as it outsources all of its manufacturing and certain related activities to San Jose-based Sanmina-SCI Corp. over the next nine months.

Overland, which makes data storage products, expects to incur between $2.5 million and $3 million of pretax charges during the remainder of fiscal year 2005 related to the outsourcing decision. But in fiscal year 2006, the company expects to realize "important cost savings" from the outsourcing.

After notifying the employees of their pending job loss, Christopher Calisi, president and CEO of Overland, credited them with reducing costs, "in spite of the burden of the expensive economic environment in San Diego."

...more...

[ozymandius]

6. "Blessed"?

This is an area that has the highest gasoline prices in the country. CN reported a while back that regular topped out at just over $3/gal.

[hatrack]

52. And I'll bet those departing Overland employees were SO encouraged!

"You've done such a great job in helping us cut costs that we're going to fire you. Thanks! Bye!"

[54anickel]

7. Money Flowing to New Way to Pool Buyers

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/22/business/22prop.html

snip>

One of the newer ways of buying real estate, tenant-in-common programs, or T.I.C.'s, offer fractional ownership of large properties and are primarily aimed at people who have recently sold other commercial property and seek to defer capital gains taxes.

Under Section 1031 of the federal tax code, such taxes can be deferred if the property being sold is exchanged for one of the same value. But the seller has to find a new property within 45 days and complete the exchange within 135 days after that - a deadline that sponsors say is often hard to meet, particularly in a hot real estate market.

In 2001, there were $165 million worth of real estate deals involving tenant-in-common equity, but this year the volume is expected to approach $2 billion, according to Omni Brokerage Inc. of Salt Lake City, which tracks tenant-in-common properties sold as securities.

snip>

The explosive growth of tenant-in-common investments, which are sold through financial advisers, has attracted the attention of NASD, the securities industry regulatory body, which is looking into how these programs are organized and marketed. "Any time we see that kind of stunning growth in product sales," said Mary L. Schapiro, the vice chairman of NASD, "you have to be concerned about how it is being sold."

big snip>

"Whenever you have an asset class that is gaining as much interest as this one," he said, "there are always going to be a lot of Johnnies-come-lately who begin to flood the marketplace with poor investments. Some people will get hurt."

more...

[54anickel]

8. Growing Signs of a Slowing on Wall Street

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/22/business/22wall.html

snip>

Still, the sterling numbers from Goldman Sachs and Lehman mask a continuing slump in their investment banking and equities capital markets business that is likely to show up in the results of Morgan Stanley and Bear, Stearns, which report on Wednesday, and Merrill Lynch, which follows a month later. If the trend persists, 2005 may offer new challenges for Wall Street banks that continue to wait for a rebound in the ever-cyclical banking business.

"There is little evidence of a stronger economy showing up in investment banking for the Wall Street firms," said Richard Strauss, an analyst with Deutsche Bank. "Firms continue to rely on countercyclical businesses like bond trading."

snip>

Wall Street firms, especially the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have proved themselves more than adept at coping with the higher risk profile that comes from a heavier reliance on volatile trading profits. Their trading operations are more diversified than ever, covering a broad range of instruments from oil futures to mortgages. Goldman, for example, made up for a slowdown in its currency trading business this quarter by making some big and successful bets as oil prices swung wildly over the summer.

The result: while broader trading revenues shrank by 26 percent compared with the previous quarter, the firm's powerful fixed income, currency and commodities division reported a mere 1 percent decline.

"Firms like Goldman are like a casino," said David Trone, a securities industry analyst with Fox-Pitt Kelton. "They win some hands and lose some, but over time they win more than they lose." :eyes:

more...

[54anickel]

9. Rate Hike May Push Stock Market Lower

Sheesh, for some reason I don't think it's the rate hike. :eyes:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040922/wall_street_3.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks are seen moving lower at the open Wednesday as investors come to grips with the Federal Reserve hiking its key rates by a quarter point to 1.75 percent.

Dow Jones futures fell 14 points recently, while Nasdaq futures were down 2.50 points and S&P futures dropped 1.80 points.

snip>

In U.S. corporate news, the Justice Department reportedly has agreed to defer prosecution of Computer Associates International Inc. in its long-running investigation of accounting fraud at the software maker. The government instead offered the company a sharp rebuke, but spared it the blow of an indictment or possible conviction, people familiar with the matter said, according to The Wall Street Journal.

General Motors Corp., in an attempt to save September auto sales from a dismal fate, is planning a three-day sale next week that will give buyers interest-free loans for 72 months on most 2004 models.

US Airways Group Inc. pilots would take pay cuts totaling 19.5 percent and senior officers could lose job protections under a new proposal advanced by the cash-strapped company, which is now flying under bankruptcy protection.

[ozymandius]

11. Occam's Razor

Fundamentals, I say, drive the market lower. Who cannot read the writing on the wall with all the big companies' warnings over earnings?

[ozymandius]

12. Like I said...

Stocks Set for Lower Open, Earnings Weigh

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were seen opening lower on Wednesday after investment bank Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MWD - news) said quarterly profit fell, while a brokerage downgrade on bellwether Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:CSCO - news) could hurt technology stocks.

Oil prices were a concern as crude hovered just below $47 a barrel on Wednesday, awaiting U.S. data that was expected to show a big drop in fuel stocks after Hurricane Ivan disrupted operations.

High energy costs generally depress stock prices because of their impact on corporate profit margins and consumer spending.

-cut-

S&P 500 futures were lower, standing nearly 6 points below fair value accounting for dividends, interest rates and time to expiration on the contract, pointing to a lower start at the open.

story

[llmart]

21. I think it's the hurricanes..

(being sarcastic here)

[ozymandius]

23. Fashion is the answer.

The "slut look" is out. Stocks fall when hemlines get lower. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

13. Russia on a roll

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6063583/

snip>

But the core of the Russian economy remains natural resources. From oil to natural gas to metals, Russia is the world's commodities storehouse.

“They've got all the resources here and the next thing to do and where were just starting to see the beginning of is process those resources and add value on those resources,” said Breech Simms of Brunswick UBS.

Money is flowing into the Russian stock market, but economist Roland Nash says there's still room to grow.

snip>

The Russian economy has never grown by more than five percent if oil prices are not rising.

So, despite and expanding middle class, a rise in consumerism and a more diverse economy, the fate of Russia remains closely tied to the outlook for oil.

So, it seems Russia has what China needs (oil & resources) and China has the manufacturing that Russia needs to balance out it's growth. Wonder if there's something more behind that Yukos decision to cut oil shipments to China?

[54anickel]

14. Japan trade surplus drops for first time in year

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/95ed1626-0c45-11d9-8318-00000e2511c8.html

snip>

Japan’s customs-cleared trade surplus fell 26 per cent in August from a year ago, the first decline in 14 months, but a surge in oil prices inflated the value of imports, dwarfing figures that showed exports grew at a sustained rate.

The trade surplus declined to Y576.1bn, well below analysts’ forecasts of Y800bn. Exports grew 10.4 per cent to Y4,781.6bn, while imports increased 18.4 per cent to Y4,205.5bn, according to the finance ministry.

snip>

A recent surge in oil prices pushed up the value of imports to the second highest monthly amount on record, but a finance ministry official said: “Oil prices have come down from their peaks, so the effect of higher costs on the surplus should ease after August.”

snip>

Optimism over Japan’s economic prospects has been dented by the recent release of downbeat data, which have revived worries that the recovery is little different from previous export-led upturns.

But policymakers and many economists say the recovery remains on track, even though growth is likely to be steady rather than spectacular.

more...


Nikkei Falls to One-Month Low, Led by Honda Motor
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aAWvz5xiKOEg&refer=asia

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell, sending the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to a one-month low. Exporters such as Honda Motor Co. and Kyocera Corp. dropped on concern higher energy costs will slow global economic growth.

Higher oil costs ``remain a risk factor for the global economy and will limit profit growth,'' said Koichi Ogawa, who helps manage the equivalent of $8.6 billion in Japanese equities as chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. ``That's prompting selling of automakers and other exporters.''

snip>

Concerns over oil prices caused Japan's benchmarks to erase earlier gains, said Mitsuhiro Nakano, a strategist at Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. The Nikkei rose as much as 0.5 percent after the U.S. Federal Reserve yesterday said production growth has ``regained some traction,'' sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its highest since June 30.

``The FOMC came out with no big surprises and with the gains we saw in the U.S. markets, it initially looked as though we were on a steady track,'' said Nakano. ``Still, higher oil prices continue to prevent investors from buying.''

snip>

South Korea's Kospi index had its biggest drop in almost three months, led by Samsung Electronics Co. Japan and South Korea import almost all of their oil. Producers including BHP Billiton and CNOOC Ltd. advanced on optimism higher oil prices will lift their earnings.

more...

[UpInArms]

15. 9:44 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,177.46 -67.47 (-0.66%)
Nasdaq 1,904.05 -17.13 (-0.89%)
S&P 500 1,120.56 -8.74 (-0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 4.041% +0.001

9:40AM: Stocks take a tumble in the opening action as buyers find little to get excited about in the morning's news items... Brokerage firm Morgan Stanley (MWD 48.10 -4.28) missed by $0.18 in its Q3 (Aug) report, AutoZone (AZO 74.25 -1.35) fell short on the top and bottom-line in its Q4 (Aug) report, and Wendy's (WEN 33.85 -1.65) warned for Q3/FY04 (Dec) last night... The effect of the earnings disappointments, along with concern ahead of the weekly oil inventories reports at 10:30 ET (crude oil has already advanced 1%, to $46.88/bbl), has been enough to dim enthusiasm this morning...

Of note, the market was up considerably yesterday following the FOMC's interest rate decision...

9:16AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -7.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.5. As has been the case throughout the morning the futures market is on the defensive, bothered by concerns about the pace of economic activity and earnings growth... Accordingly, look for the cash market to follow suit and to start the trading session on a negative note

8:56AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -7.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.5. Pre-market tone is worsening as cash market looks set for a noticeably lower open

8:37AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -6.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.5. Buyers holding back in pre-market action as earnings disappointments across multiple industry groups are exacerbating concerns about the pace of economic growth... Morgan Stanley (MWD) acting as a negative focal point as the investment bank posted a profit of $0.78 per share that was $0.18 below the Reuters Estimates consensus...

ino.com (pre-opening)

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally, which tested the 62% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1447. If December extends its rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1476.54 is the next upside target. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1426.65 would signal that the rebound off August's low has come to an end. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 2.50 pt. at 1433 as of 5:43 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1124.90 and above the 75% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 1125.15. If the rally continues, a test of gap resistance crossing at 1131.19 is December's next upside target. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1117.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

19. *SNARF* "Of note, the market was up considerably yesterday following the

FOMC's interest rate decision"

That IS funny! Especially in light of Iossif's wrap-up from 8/31 that Ozy posted yesterday and the Fed's statement on inflation, particularly the lack thereof. The main inflation these "alchemists" watch is wages. What's that statement really pointing to in this new consumer driven economy?

[ozymandius]

22. I'm glad you brought that up.

That story this morning about the Fed's rate hike driving the markets downward today was somewhat offset by the market's jump upward yesterday after the hike was announced. So I second your question. And: What are these guys smoking?

[UpInArms]

16. Morgan Stanley profit falls 34 pct, shares drop

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6304718

NEW YORK, Sept 22 (Reuters) - U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley (MWD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday said quarterly profit dropped 34 percent amid reduced trading revenue, falling well short of Wall Street's already-lowered expectations after a summer of sluggish market activity.

New York-based Morgan Stanley also said it reached an agreement in principle with the New York Stock Exchange on its failure to comply with certain prospectus delivery rules, operational deficiencies and other matters. The firm, which paid $19 million in the NYSE settlement, said talks have not concluded and there is no assurance a resolution will be reached.

The company's shares fell 5.3 percent before the bell.

Net income dropped to $837 million, or 76 cents a share, in the fiscal third quarter ended Aug. 31, down from $1.27 billion, or $1.15 per share, in the year-earlier period.

Analysts on average had expected Morgan Stanley to earn 96 cents a share, with forecasts ranging between 88 cents and $1.05, according to Reuters Estimates.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. UK companies in the offshoring rush

Norwich Union axes 950 jobs

http://www.itv.com/news/britain_579026.html

Norwich Union is to offshore 950 jobs to India and Sri Lanka next year, with the loss of work in Norwich and York.

The insurance giant said it will do all it can to minimise compulsory redundancies by redeploying staff to alternative jobs.

Around 760 of the new jobs will be based in India servicing the life and pensions and general insurance businesses in mainly back office administrative roles. A further 190 finance support jobs will be created in Sri Lanka.

Gary Withers, Norwich Union Life's chief executive, said: "Expanding our offshore operations will give us the increased capacity we need.

"We expect to conclude our offshoring plans by the end of 2007, by which time we anticipate that we will have up to 7,000 roles offshore servicing our existing UK businesses.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. 10:12 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,153.72 -91.21 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 1,900.73 -20.45 (-1.06%)
S&P 500 1,118.32 -10.98 (-0.97%)
10-Yr Bond 4.054% +0.014

10:00AM: Equity market heads even lower, pressured by bearish market internals and strong sector participation... Semiconductor, biotech, brokerage, transportation, and airline are all registering losses of 1% or more and offsetting moderate gains in oil service (off the crude oil advance)... Hardly any group, in fact, has been immune to selling as the day's developments have been so negative in nature... The bond market has also experienced selling across the curve today - a profit-taking move following the large rally seen in treasuries over the past 3 months...SOX -1.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 643/1958, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 561/1833

9:40AM: Stocks take a tumble in the opening action as buyers find little to get excited about in the morning's news items... Brokerage firm Morgan Stanley (MWD 48.10 - 4.28) missed by $0.18 in its Q3 (Aug) report, AutoZone (AZO 74.25 -1.35) fell short on the top and bottom-line in its Q4 (Aug) report, and Wendy's (WEN 33.85 -1.65) warned for Q3/FY04 (Dec) last night... The effect of the earnings disappointments, along with concern ahead of the weekly oil inventories reports at 10:30 ET (crude oil has already advanced 1%, to $46.88/bbl), has been enough to dim enthusiasm this morning...

Of note, the market was up considerably yesterday following the FOMC's interest rate decision...

[54anickel]

20. Ewww, and lookie at those Adv/Declines and Up/Down volumes

Volumes don't seem that high yet, but 80% of what's there is DOWN.

NYSE Volume 269,875,000
Nasdaq Volume 375,609,000


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 671 (22%) 563 (21%)
Declines 2126 (71%) 1984 (74%)
Unchanged 165 (5%) 132 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 30 (18%) 89 (32%)
Down Vol* 128 (80%) 179 (66%)
Unch. Vol* 2 (1%) 3 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 40 25
New Lo's 8 27

[54anickel]

25. 10:30 blather hints at today's target levels to try and maintain.

It'll be interesting to watch these for the day.

10:35AM: Indices accelerate their slide as the S&P 500 dips below its 200 day simple moving average at 1116.80... The Nasdaq itself has fallen below the psychologically significant 1900 level as semiconductor, disk drive, biotech, networking, and communication equipment have racked up large losses... The latter group has been dragged lower by a Deutsche Securities downgrade of Cisco Systems (CSCO 19.01 -0.64) to Hold from Buy... The firm cited growing uncertainty, macroeconomic risks, and a potential tech revaluation in its downgrade...NYSE Adv/Dec 637/2219, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 583/2062

[UpInArms]

24. Fannie Mae Financial Reports Questioned

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2004/09/22/ap1555429.html

Home mortgage lender Fannie Mae on Wednesday said the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight uncovered accounting inaccuracies that raise doubts about the company's previous financial reports.

Fannie Mae said the office, which started its review of Fannie Mae's bookkeeping more than a year ago, is questioning the company's use of a "cookie jar" reserve - delaying the recognition of revenue to smooth quarterly profits.

The office also said Fannie Mae did not comply with accounting rules in recording derivatives transactions and hedging activities, and in at least one instance deferred expenses to reach bonus compensation targets.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. New Issue - Fannie Mae sells $10.5 billion in bills

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6305640

WHITE PLAINS, N.Y., Sept 22 (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the No. 1 U.S. home funding company, said on Wednesday it sold $8 billion of three-month benchmark bills due Dec. 22, 2004, at a stop- out rate of 1.856 percent, $1.5 billion of six-month benchmark bills due March 23, 2005, at a stop-out rate of 2.014 percent and $1.0 billion of one- year benchmark bills due Sept. 16, 2005 at a stop-out rate of 2.220 percent.

The three-month bills were priced at 99.531 and have a money market yield of 1.865 percent, the six-month bills were priced at 98.982 and have a money market yield of 2.035 percent and the one-year bills were priced at 97.786 and have a money market yield of 2.270 percent.

Settlement is Sept. 22-23.

[UpInArms]

26. Computer Associates Set for Criminal Arraignment

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aL3TAtPHZeic&refer=us

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Computer Associates International Inc., the software maker under investigation for a $2.2 billion accounting fraud, is scheduled to be arraigned in U.S. criminal court today, and former general counsel Steven Woghin is set to plead guilty to unspecified charges, a prosecutor said.

Company officials will appear before U.S. District Court Judge Leo Glasser in Brooklyn, New York, and Woghin is slated for a plea hearing, said Assistant U.S. Attorney Eric Ross Komitee. Glasser declined to elaborate. Computer Associates will also pay $225 million to settle accounting fraud allegations with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a person familiar with the matter said.

Islandia, New York-based Computer Associates has agreed to a deferred prosecution that would allow it to avoid a company indictment, the New York Post reported today. The company agreed to an outside monitor of its accounting practices, the paper reported.

``Any resolution no matter how painful is a blessing,'' said Nitsan Hargil, a Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. analyst who rates the shares ``market perform'' and said he doesn't own them. ``They can now offer themselves as a software company instead of an interesting cocktail party conversation.''

Computer Associates' arraignment, a proceeding at which criminal charges are read, caps a government investigation of the company that has lasted more than two years and resulted in former Chief Executive Sanjay Kumar's ouster. Fifteen officials have been fired or quit, including four who pleaded guilty to charges before Woghin.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. 10:52 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,137.64 -107.29 (-1.05%)
Nasdaq 1,893.17 -28.01 (-1.46%)
S&P 500 1,116.16 -13.14 (-1.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.045% +0.005

10:35AM: Indices accelerate their slide as the S&P 500 dips below its 200 day simple moving average at 1116.80... The Nasdaq itself has fallen below the psychologically significant 1900 level as semiconductor, disk drive, biotech, networking, and communication equipment have racked up large losses... The latter group has been dragged lower by a Deutsche Securities downgrade of Cisco Systems (CSCO 19.01 - 0.64) to Hold from Buy... The firm cited growing uncertainty, macroeconomic risks, and a potential tech revaluation in its downgrade...NYSE Adv/Dec 637/2219, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 583/2062

[54anickel]

29. Consumers beginning to feel the Fed's rate nudges

I hate article made up almost entirely of single sentence paragraphs!

http://www.freep.com/money/business/fed22e_20040922.htm

snip>
For the overextended -- and those living on the fringe -- higher rates could pose a true risk.

snip>

"It's going to take people longer to dig themselves out of debt," said Tamara Draut, director of the economic opportunity program at Demos, a New York-based public policy group.

snip>

Take someone with a $6,000 balance.

If the card has an annual rate of 13.5 percent, it could take 29 years and nine months to pay off the balance, if you only pay the minimum required, said Greg McBride, financial analyst for Bankrate.com in North Palm Beach, Fla.

Boost the card rate to 16 percent, as could happen by next year, and it would take 37 years and 11 months to pay off the debt.

snip>

Plus, you'd pay an extra $4,018 in interest. At 16 percent, you'd pay a total of $11,329 in interest.

What's worse: If you only watch your minimum monthly payment, you're not going to notice any change. The minimum payment isn't going to shoot up by much.

"It gives people a sense that rates aren't as high as they are," Draut said.

snip>

Wu is worried about consumers who paid off old credit card debt by refinancing to an adjustable rate mortgage. Unlike credit card bills, the monthly ARM payment can shoot up quickly after annual adjustments are made.

more...

[UpInArms]

34. but..but...but... Meanspin SAID ARMs were the way to go!

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040223/default.htm

Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Understanding household debt obligations
At the Credit Union National Association 2004 Governmental Affairs Conference, Washington, D.C.
February 23, 2004

Mitigating Homeowner Payment Shocks
Rising debt service ratios are a concern if they reflect household financial stress and presage a drop in consumption or a rise in losses by lenders. Most homeowners and renters are aware of the possible difficulties should they lock themselves into a high level of debt payment obligations. Financial institutions might be able to help some households in this regard by looking for ways that households--both renters and homeowners--can shield themselves from unexpected payment shocks.

One way homeowners attempt to manage their payment risk is to use fixed-rate mortgages, which typically allow homeowners to prepay their debt when interest rates fall but do not involve an increase in payments when interest rates rise. Homeowners pay a lot of money for the right to refinance and for the insurance against increasing mortgage payments. Calculations by market analysts of the "option adjusted spread" on mortgages suggest that the cost of these benefits conferred by fixed-rate mortgages can range from 0.5 percent to 1.2 percent, raising homeowners' annual after-tax mortgage payments by several thousand dollars. Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward.

American homeowners clearly like the certainty of fixed mortgage payments. This preference is in striking contrast to the situation in some other countries, where adjustable-rate mortgages are far more common and where efforts to introduce American-type fixed-rate mortgages generally have not been successful. Fixed-rate mortgages seem unduly expensive to households in other countries. One possible reason is that these mortgages effectively charge homeowners high fees for protection against rising interest rates and for the right to refinance.

American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but are willing to manage their own interest rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home.

[UpInArms]

30. Crude tops $47 as Energy Dept posts big supply drop

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/AFX/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=1095864808-9e32d306-33123

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- November crude in New York topped $47 a barrel after the Energy Department said crude supplies were down 9.1 million barrels at 269.5 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 17. The report said Hurricane Ivan caused a 1.5 million-barrel drop in average daily imports. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.8 million barrels to total 199.7 million barrels. Distillate inventories were down 1.5 million barrels at 126.8 million barrels. November crude is up 29 cents at $47.05 per barrel. October unleaded gasoline is up 0.2 percent at $1.305 a gallon and October heating oil is up 0.6 percent at $1.2975 a gallon

[Media_Lies_Daily]

31. There appears to be a major leak in the boat today.

[54anickel]

33. Well, overnight repos were a bit thin yesterday ;-) compare to what

they have been for the past few weeks anyway. :evilgrin:

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

[54anickel]

32. GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC REPORTS: THINGS YOU'VE SUSPECTED

BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK! -- THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX"
(Part Three in a Series)

http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/s/article/id=300

snip>

Let Them Eat Hamburger

In the early 1990s, press reports began surfacing as to how the CPI really was significantly overstating inflation. If only the CPI inflation rate could be reduced, it was argued, then entitlements, such as social security, would not increase as much each year, and that would help to bring the budget deficit under control. Behind this movement were financial luminaries Michael Boskin, then chief economist to the first Bush administration, and Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Although the ensuing political furor killed consideration of Congressionally mandated changes in the CPI, the BLS quietly stepped forward and began changing the system, anyway, early in the Clinton administration.

Up until the Boskin/Greenspan agendum surfaced, the CPI was measured using the costs of a fixed basket of goods, a fairly simple and straightforward concept. The identical basket of goods would be priced at prevailing market costs for each period, and the period-to-period change in the cost of that market basket represented the rate of inflation in terms of maintaining a constant standard of living.

The Boskin/Greenspan argument was that when steak got too expensive, the consumer would substitute hamburger for the steak, and that the inflation measure should reflect the costs tied to buying hamburger versus steak, instead of steak versus steak. Of course, replacing hamburger for steak in the calculations would reduce the inflation rate, but it represented the rate of inflation in terms of maintaining a declining standard of living. Cost of living was being replaced by the cost of survival. The old system told you how much you had to increase your income in order to keep buying steak. The new system promised you hamburger, and then dog food, perhaps, after that.

more...

[UpInArms]

35. are we eating dryer lint now? ....... n/t

[54anickel]

37. Haven't you seen these multi-flavor packages yet?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

43. YUM!! Just add water and stir until sufficiently pasty.

[54anickel]

36. Europeans wait nervously for the golden revolution

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/48d063cc-0c34-11d9-8318-00000e2511c8.html

It is six months since European central banks announced they were renewing the gold-selling pact that has helped stabilise prices over the past five years. But a week before it comes into force, gold traders are waiting nervously for the details on who will be selling how much.

The biggest uncertainty is whether the 15 signatories to the new accord will be able to sell the maximum 500 tonnes a year set for the new five-year pact, up on the 400 tonnes a year under the existing sales programme. Central bankers say there are enough sellers of gold among the European central banks to fulfil the planned sales quota. But bullion traders say not enough central banks have committed to selling their bullion under the new pact. They see this as a sign that the banks may struggle to dispose of all the gold for sale.

Since the European Central Bank and 14 other European central banks announced in March that they planned to renew the existing five-year agreement, almost 1,400 tonnes of the planned 2,500 has been earmarked for sale. The bulk of these sale commitments have yet to be fully confirmed.

"We doubt whether the renewed agreement will lead to an increase in gold sales by central banks. Rather, we believe there is a strong possibility that the signatory central banks could end up selling materially less gold," said John Reade, a precious metals analyst at UBS.

However, one central banker said there was full commitment to sell the proposed amount. "I have no reason to doubt that this amount will be sold."

more...

[UpInArms]

38. 12:19 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,132.41 -112.52 (-1.10%)
Nasdaq 1,893.23 -27.95 (-1.45%)
S&P 500 1,116.15 -13.15 (-1.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.007% -0.033

12:00PM: It's been nothing but red this morning, as the indices started lower and only deteriorated throughout the session... As it stands now, the S&P 500 is trading 1 point below its 200-day simple moving average and the Nasdaq is trading 8 points below the psychologically significant 1900 level... Selling has cropped up across virtually every industry group as a large number of companies have reduced their quarterly expectations...

AutoZone (AZO 74.08 -1.52), Ethan Allen (EAH 36.33 -0.01), and Wendy's (WEN 33.77 -1.73) all warned citing various factors, and brokerage firm Morgan Stanley (MWD 49.33 -3.05) missed by a large margin in its Q3 (Aug) report (see Briefing.com's Earnings Briefing for more details)... As a result, sellers have targeted the brokerage, restaurant, home furnishing, and retail shares, along with most of energy and technology... The former has stumbled in a profit-taking move off the 2% jump in the price of crude oil (to $47.43/ bbl) that was prompted by the 8th consecutive week of US oil inventory declines...

As for tech, it has been a laggard following some cautious analyst commentary - including a Deutsche Securities downgrade of Cisco Systems (CSCO 19.03 -0.62) to Hold from Buy... The Nasdaq (-1.5%) has thus lagged the blue chip averages (-1.2%) on a relative basis, although breadth figures remain bearish in both instances...

[54anickel]

39. Heh, that Sting tune, "Sending out an S.O.S." came to mind as I read

that noon blather. Will the bargain hunter calvary answer the call?

[sadiesworld]

40. YIKES!

How low will it go...

[UpInArms]

41. General Motors denies report that it plans 3,000 layoffs in Europe

http://www.canada.com/businesscentre/story.html?id=8b717d9d-00b8-4e40-abb7-320c33a83294

LONDON (AP) - General Motors denied a newspaper report Wednesday that said it plans to cut 3,000 jobs in Europe to offset losses in its operations across the region.

"We didn't give out any numbers about possible layoffs," Tony Cervone, a GM spokesman based in Zurich, Switzerland, said of the report in the Daily Telegraph.

"This is pure speculation," he said in an interview.

The article cited remarks made Tuesday by Fritz Henderson, chairman of General Motors Europe, who said that GM's loss-making European subsidiary was launching a 60-day study about restructuring the business. The remarks were made at a news conference in Nice, France.

...more...

[Media_Lies_Daily]

44. "Layoffs!? Er...uh...we're just reallocating resources...

...nothing left to see here folks...please move along!"

[54anickel]

42. 1:22 and trying to turn the corner.

Dow 10,138.23 -106.70 (-1.04%)
Nasdaq 1,894.94 -26.24 (-1.37%)
S&P 500 1,117.06 -12.24 (-1.08%)
10-yr Bond 4.014% -0.026
30-yr Bond 4.806% -0.037
NYSE Volume 766,054,000
Nasdaq Volume 947,706,000

12:55PM: Buyers continue to be a scarce commodity as the major indices bounce along their session lows... Down volume continues to outpace up volume by a more than 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and more than 4-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq... The opposite is true in the treasury market, where buyers have expressed interest in the long-end of the curve... Although lower now, the 10-year note was up as much as 8 ticks for a yield of 4.00% around 12 ET...
That move is particularly impressive considering the Fed's interest rake hike tomorrow and policy statement that indicated further rate increases would be along the way... To most investors' surprise, the bond market has held in extremely well this year as the economy has not accelerated at the rate most analysts called for... Treasuries are, in fact, higher for the year - outperforming stocks...NYSE Adv/Dec 865/2307, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 672/2261

12:30PM: More of the same for the market, as losses remain robust and sector participation nearly universal... At this point, the Dow is performing the best out of all the major indices, and that is with losses of 1.1%... Only 1 of it s 30 components is showing gains - namely Walt Disney (DIS 23.49 +0.08) with not even a 1% move... Today the Mouse said that it plans to have a new CEO named by June (current CEO Eisner's contract expires in 2006 and he will not seek an additional term) and is considering President Robert Iger as the sole current employee in its top executive search...

News that the company has been diligent in its succession process has been viewed as a positive by the Street - as Disney has been criticized in the past for compliance issues...

[54anickel]

45. Wonder what's pumping up the PMs? Buck seems to be holding its

own. Down just a tad from UIAs dollar watch post. :shrug:

Last trade 88.53 Change +0.40 (+0.45%)
High 88.71 Low 88.06

[UpInArms]

46. did Snow-job just slip from the party line

Fannie Mae woes show strong regulator needed-Snow

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6306876

MECHANICSBURG, Pa., Sept 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Wednesday said a government review that found Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) used inappropriate accounting to iron out earnings volatility reinforced the need for a stronger watchdog for government-sponsored enterprises.

"These reports ... if they're credible, they underscore the importance of a strong safety and soundness regulator," Snow told reporters following a roundtable discussion with businessmen here.

Earlier on Wednesday, Fannie Mae's board said a government review charged that the country's No. 1 mortgage finance company had used improper "cookie jar" accounting to smooth earnings, and called into question past financial results.

"It's important to have a strong GSE regulator ... GSEs are a very important component of our national housing market, national mortgage market, and because they are such large entities they are also an important part of our total financial system," Snow said.

...more...

Isn't that against the deregulation mantra of no governmental intervention for the free markets?

[54anickel]

48. Slip from the party line of free markets, but not from the not so

reassuring "assurances" that GSE doesn't mean protected by the government from default and automatically guaranteed a government bail-out. Remember a few months back when the Treas and Fed were trying to establish distance between themselves and the GSEs?

Gives a nice, warm and fuzzy feeling - doesn't it?

[UpInArms]

47. 2:07 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,108.88 -136.05 (-1.33%)
Nasdaq 1,888.89 -32.29 (-1.68%)
S&P 500 1,114.41 -14.89 (-1.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.001% -0.039

2:00PM: The market is still down in the dumps as the indices set new worst levels... Biotech, financial, transportation, drug, cyclical, consumer staple, and technology have all taken a hit and given little hope for a recovery effort in the process... Software, semiconductor, computer hardware, networking, and communication equipment have rounded out the latter's worst performing groups... Strikingly, the homebuilding group has lifted off its lows - nearly breaching the unchanged mark - as the rally in the bond market has taken hold and the yield on the 10-year note falls below the 4.00% level...SOX -2.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 981/2232, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 727/2236

1:30PM: Equities continue to sport hefty gains in what as been a losing session for bulls... Conviction as measured by market internals has been strong to the downside, and volume has run at an above average pace... This suggests that sentiment remains fairly negative in this market that cannot seem to recover from earnings warnings... Briefing.com said at the beginning of the year that year/ year comparisons would become more difficult in 2H04, and indeed they have...

Profits growth rates, in most instances, have slowed - at a rate greater than most analysts expected due to higher input costs (energy), weaker consumer spending, and less beneficial currency conversion to name a few...NYSE Adv/Dec 994/2294, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 696/ 2250

where is that calvary?

[54anickel]

50. OUCH!!! Gonna take an awful lot of 2:00 pixie dust to over come this

"correction". You don't think someone has suddenly decided to let the market make a substantial correction now so that it can be "up, up, and away" for those final weeks leading into the election, do ya? Sheesh, this is scary - I'm starting to think like Rove! :evilgrin:

[KoKo]

53. Here's Astrology Market Timer Jim Merriman's view on Bush and Market.....

Sounds like it can go either way...A big rush to the upside, or a big crash to the bottom side in the next couple of weeks....

I'll pick the bottom side, but given how many little helpers the Bushies have...it will probably tick up...without them...watch out below!


------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WEEK FOR SEPTEMBER 30th:
This will be an important week in terms of geocosmic activity. On Wednesday, September 22, the Sun will not only enter Libra, but it will conjunct Jupiter. And then on September 27, Mars will conjoin Jupiter. If this combination is as positive as I think, then either the market soars to new cycle highs within this time frame, or it finishes its sideways correction then and starts a run to new highs immediately afterwards. This is generally a time of great euphoria and optimism. Oftentimes there is a newsworthy event that propels stock markets upward. It could be positive earning reports, or something in the political arena. Libra is the sign of agreements and peace, so there may be a major announcement of something positive in this area. Not too long ago I thought it might be the announcement of the capture of Bin Laden, for that would have enormous political clout for George Bush who, at the time, was behind in the polls. But now that he is ahead in the polls, pulling that “rabbit out of the hat” trick is no longer necessary. But it is still possible that he will make the news this week or next, in something akin to changing his image as “war president” into a “peace president.” Or maybe that is wishful thinking on my part, for the reality is that fear sells votes more than peace does today. If the population is afraid, then they will be afraid to make a change. And the presence of Saturn in Cancer tells me that the American public is voting on fear this year—fear of change. The United States, as you know, is a Cancer country, born July 2 or 4, depending on whether you use the chart that began the vote for independence, or the chart that ended that vote. And on Election Day the Moon is also in Cancer, which just adds more credence to my argument that the majority of the voters will vote on the basis of fear rather than change.

Yet the movement of the stock market does not yet confirm that George Bush will win. In order for this study to favor George Bush, the DJIA has to climb back to the highs of last June (10,450-10,500). It is still 170 points from that level as of Friday’s close. I think the Jupiter transits coming up will carry the market upwards either into September 22-28, or shortly thereafter, because I think these transits will bring about favorable news for the market. But it is still possible that I am wrong. Jupiter transits in conjunctions sometimes unfold negatively. When a conjunction of Mars and Jupiter expresses itself negatively, it coincides with hysteria and panic. When it is positive, it is euphoria and optimism. With a conjunction, it is usually positive, but sometimes it is negative. My bias is positive because they are going into Libra, which tends to be more positive with the collective than negative, in my opinion.

But either way, stayed tuned for the next ten days. The drama in the skies suggests that something big could happen. And with it comes big swings in the price of stocks. In fact, within four trading days of the Sun conjunct Jupiter (September 22), there is a 79% probability (based on the past 22 instances) that the market will swing at least 4%. In today’s terms, that is a move of about 400 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

http://www.stariq.com/MarketWeek.HTM

[54anickel]

56. Ugh, makes me want to shot the stars from the skys. Seems like he's

bringing in that 50/50 chance though. Could be up, could be down. I'm less concerned about his call for the stock market than I am about his call for a Shrub victory based on fear itself or fear of change. One thing we know for certain is that they are damned good at selling FEAR.

[54anickel]

57. Delete double post

[MARALE]

62. Looks like

There was some pixie dust at 2:00 holding them up, look at them fall now. Wonder if there will be a late day rally?

[qanda]

49. Not a regular here...

But my husband just called and asked me why gas is going back up. He said it has increased 5 cents in the last week. Does anyone have an answer for me? Thanks.

[54anickel]

51. Umm, err, heck, I'd just tell him - BUSH and those damned greedy

speculators!!! But, seriously the latest line is:

The Department of Energy reported Wednesday that the nation's supply of crude fell by 9.1 million barrels last week, bringing inventories to a level that is 5 percent below last year. The decline was wider than many analysts had expected and followed a 7.1 million barrel drop in the prior week.

snip>

About 8.5 million barrels of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico have been lost since the beginning of last week and daily output in the region remains 39 percent lower at about 1 million barrels per day, according to the latest data from the federal Minerals Management Service.

Delayed oil shipments have also taken a toll on U.S. supplies, which normally grow this time of year as gasoline demand tapers off and refiners temporarily shut down to perform maintenance.

However, nearly all platforms and rigs that had been evacuated have since been restaffed, the agency reported.

While the supply problems caused by Hurricane Ivan are expected to be short-lived, analysts said the underlying tightness in global oil markets is not - and that is why prices are rising on every apparent production or delivery snag.

more...
http://www.forbes.com/business/businesstech/feeds/ap/2004/09/22/ap1555623.html

Edit to add this link to another interesting article and thread
Oil Reserves Drop for 1st Time in 5 Years
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x846138

[Robbien]

55. Price per barrel is now at $48.35. Wow!

and in-forum says

While the supply problems caused by Hurricane Ivan are expected to be short-lived, analysts said the underlying tightness in global oil markets is not - and that is why prices are rising on every apparent production or delivery snag.

The amount of excess production available worldwide is about 1 percent of total demand of about 82 million barrels a day, leaving little breathing room in the event of a prolonged supply interruption.

[TrogL]

54. Loonie Watch

Sorry I haven't done one for awhile. Been swamped at work. Thought today's numbers might be worth one.

The overall trends are worth looking at, so go have a quick look at the main looniewatch website.

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2004-08-23 Monday, August 23 0.765404 USD
2004-08-24 Tuesday, August 24 0.766401 USD
2004-08-25 Wednesday, August 25 0.76646 USD
2004-08-26 Thursday, August 26 0.762021 USD
2004-08-27 Friday, August 27 0.763126 USD
2004-08-30 Monday, August 30 0.759071 USD
2004-08-31 Tuesday, August 31 0.759532 USD
2004-09-01 Wednesday, September 1 0.765052 USD
2004-09-02 Thursday, September 2 0.769527 USD
2004-09-03 Friday, September 3 0.768935 USD
2004-09-07 Tuesday, September 7 0.776277 USD
2004-09-08 Wednesday, September 8 0.774893 USD
2004-09-09 Thursday, September 9 0.776518 USD
2004-09-10 Friday, September 10 0.776398 USD
2004-09-13 Monday, September 13 0.769231 USD
2004-09-14 Tuesday, September 14 0.773994 USD
2004-09-15 Wednesday, September 15 0.770001 USD
2004-09-16 Thursday, September 16 0.774353 USD
2004-09-17 Friday, September 17 0.769112 USD
2004-09-20 Monday, September 20 0.772559 USD
2004-09-21 Tuesday, September 21 0.776036 USD
2004-09-22 Wednesday, September 22 0.780275 USD


Edmonton announced yesterday that manufacturing was playing a major part in the city's economy. Canada recently raised interest rates because inflation was getting a little hot. Canada's import/export ratio is good, the GDB is fine and it's credit rating is excellent.

[bain_sidhe]

58. Thanks, TrogL...

I always wonder how my neighbors to the south are doing! (LOL - well, southeast, anyway - I'm in the Detroit area.) Kind of an up-trend going on there, huh?

[54anickel]

59. Thanks TrogL! So what's the job and housing market looking like

north of the border? May be looking to immigrate after the elections this year. It's that fight or flight instinct settling in I guess.

[UpInArms]

60. 3:15 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,103.43 -141.50 (-1.38%)
Nasdaq 1,887.54 -33.64 (-1.75%)
S&P 500 1,113.51 -15.79 (-1.40%)
10-Yr Bond 3.989% -0.051

3:00PM: Stocks remain underwater with little sign of emerging as no recovery attempt has been sustained today... Energy worries, earnings disappointments, technical deterioration, and geopolitical concerns continue to force investors to take a more conservative approach... Fighting today in Baghdad has been particularly bad, with one suicide bombing killing at least six Iraqi civilians and wounding 54 others... A second American hostage was also executed today by an al- Qaida-linked group - intensifying worries about the situation there... NYSE Adv/Dec 981/2260, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 733/2280

guess and the calvary is off on some other battlefield :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

63. No calvary, no pixies, no nuttin! Probably busy with crowd control in

treasuries, oil and PMs. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

61. 3:20 goin down, down, down, down down, down

edit for html

Dow 10,100.99 -143.94 (-1.40%)
Nasdaq 1,886.69 -34.49 (-1.80%)
S&P 500 1,113.02 -16.28 (-1.44%)
10-yr Bond 3.989% -0.051
30-yr Bond 4.777% -0.066
NYSE Volume 1,116,205,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,312,313,000

3:00PM: Stocks remain underwater with little sign of emerging as no recovery attempt has been sustained today... Energy worries, earnings disappointments, technical deterioration, and geopolitical concerns continue to force investors to take a more conservative approach... Fighting today in Baghdad has been particularly bad, with one suicide bombing killing at least six Iraqi civilians and wounding 54 others... A second American hostage was also executed today by an al-Qaida-linked group - intensifying worries about the situation there... NYSE Adv/Dec 981/2260, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 733/2280

2:30PM: Indices hold to the same negative stance after their latest leg lower... A jump in the price of crude oil to its highs of the day ($48.20/bbl) brought about the latest selling drive as traders worry about the effects of Hurricane Ivan... It is hypothesized more damage was done than initially believed, and that that combined with shrinking oil inventories puts the US in a weak position... With the tone of trading bearish throughout the session, this news has only prompted more selling...NYSE Adv/Dec 952/2277, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 676/2307

2:00PM : The market is still down in the dumps as the indices set new worst levels... Biotech, financial, transportation, drug, cyclical, consumer staple, and technology have all taken a hit and given little hope for a recovery effort in the process... Software, semiconductor, computer hardware, networking, and communication equipment have rounded out the latter's worst performing groups... Strikingly, the homebuilding group has lifted off its lows - nearly breaching the unchanged mark - as the rally in the bond market has taken hold and the yield on the 10-year note falls below the 4.00% level...SOX -2.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 981/2232, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 727/2236

1:30PM : Equities continue to sport hefty gains in what as been a losing session for bulls... Conviction as measured by market internals has been strong to the downside, and volume has run at an above average pace... This suggests that sentiment remains fairly negative in this market that cannot seem to recover from earnings warnings... Briefing.com said at the beginning of the year that year/year comparisons would become more difficult in 2H04, and indeed they have...

Profits growth rates, in most instances, have slowed - at a rate greater than most analysts expected due to higher input costs (energy), weaker consumer spending, and less beneficial currency conversion to name a few...NYSE Adv/Dec 994/2294, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 696/2250

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 994 (28%) 737 (23%)
Declines 2252 (65%) 2292 (72%)
Unchanged 185 (5%) 136 (4%)

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Up Vol* 196 (18%) 298 (23%)
Down Vol* 832 (79%) 950 (75%)
Unch. Vol* 19 (1%) 7 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 93 48
New Lo's 24 39

[UpInArms]

64. 3:33 EST numbers (under 10,100 - barely)

Dow 10,099.67 -145.26 (-1.42%)
Nasdaq 1,885.86 -35.32 (-1.84%)
S&P 500 1,112.72 -16.58 (-1.47%)
10-Yr Bond 3.989% -0.051

adding blather on edit:

3:30PM: Sellers remain a persistent bunch as the equity market lurch lower again... The market started with large losses in the first minutes of trading, and those have only gotten worse as the day has gone on... At this point, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are poised to close 1.3-1.8% lower, which is worse than the performance over in Asia (Nikkei -0.6%) and Europe (DAX Index -1.2%)... Small cap issues (- 1.8%) in the US have actually underperformed their large-cap counterparts as traders have looked to reduce exposure to (what is perceived to be) more risk-oriented investments...NYSE Adv/Dec 1024/2231, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 734/ 2302

[54anickel]

66. Heh-heh, they must of heard ya, 7 minutes later at 10,114 n/t

[54anickel]

65. U.N.: Foreign Investment Falls Again

http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/feeds/ap/2004/09/22/ap1556082.html

GENEVA (AP) - Investment by businesses in foreign markets fell 18 percent in 2003 to $560 billion as the global economy continued to struggle, but should improve this year as growth speeds up, the United Nations said Wednesday.

"Investment flows are set to rebound in 2004," the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development said in its annual World Investment Report. "The recovery of the world economy and improved corporate profits are the major drivers."

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions picked up 3 percent in the first half of 2004 compared with the same period last year, indicating a possible recovery, UNCTAD said in the 436-page study. Higher economic growth in the world's major economies, improved corporate profitability and higher stock valuations also point toward a recovery in foreign investment this year.

Economists regard foreign direct investment as an important factor in boosting a country's growth.

But the report stressed that it is hard to predict by how much investment will rebound, as a few large cross-border mergers and acquisitions "may make all the difference." Any recovery will be driven by growth of multinationals from developed countries, it said.

more...


World on brink of surge in offshore provision of services: UN

GENEVA : Multinational companies are on the brink of shifting more services to cheaper locations abroad as the trend towards "offshoring" in the sector reaches a "tipping point," a UN report said.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned the predominantly industrialized countries which are the source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) that it would be "short-sighted" to resist the trend by forcing corporate service jobs to stay at home.

"It may well mark the next stage in the evolution of the international division of labour," the agency's 2004 World Investment Report said.

snip>

"Even among the world's 1,000 largest companies, some 70 percent have still not offshored any business processes to lower cost countries," the report said.

However, UNCTAD estimated that investment in offshore "business processing" would expand from 1.3 billion dollars in 2002 to 24 billion dollars by 2007, although it would not necessarily all flow to developing countries.

more...


Why am I having memories coming back from when I was a kid? Remember when your folks would say, "come on, time to go, the bus is leaving with or without ya".

[54anickel]

67. Slutwear goes out of fashion (I'll be damned! Ozy was right again!)

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/15/news/funny/slutwear_out.reut/

"There was too much slutwear," he said. "Slutwear doesn't play in the boardroom and it doesn't play in the office.

Guess it WAS playing well on Wall Street - now they're leaving in droves :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

68. shucks! I have missed yet another fad

[54anickel]

69. Here's what we'll be wearing if Shrub gets another 4 years!

[ozymandius]

71. I already have my outfit picked out.

[54anickel]

72. SNARF!!! Good one Ozy!

[TrogL]

73. Some idiot was going on about this on CBC radio yesterday

Saying that we're seeing a revert to the cold-war mentalities of the 50's and hemlines will follow. She cited the boob incident as the deciding factor.

She claimed there's a rise in cardigans and pullovers.

You've got to be fscking kidding.

[54anickel]

74. What was that quote from Shrub I saw the other day about recession -

"That means we're going backward" or something like that. Yep, no shit - in more ways than just the economy!

[54anickel]

70. Closing

Dow 10,109.18 -135.75 (-1.33%)
Nasdaq 1,885.71 -35.47 (-1.85%)
S&P 500 1,113.56 -15.74 (-1.39%)
10-yr Bond 3.989% -0.051
30-yr Bond 4.777% -0.066
NYSE Volume 1,379,175,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,581,802,000

Close: It was a short-seller's dream as the market took a hit in the opening action and never recovered throughout the day... In fact, the indices moved steadily lower - on a course of new session lows - as breadth figures turned bearish and sector participation was strong... The reason for this was a conflux of factors - several earnings warnings from a diverse array of companies, a 3% spike in the price of crude oil, and a late-day rally yesterday that seemed to provide the perfect impetus for profit-taking...
Indeed traders booked profits - and then some - as the major indices finished 1.3-1.9% lower... Morgan Stanley (MWD 48.67 -4.71) and Wendy's (WEN 33.38 -2.12) issued disappointing earnings pronouncements, along with others AutoZone (AZO 74.79 -0.81) and Ethan Allen (ETH 35.74 -0.60)... This sent the home furnishing, retail, restaurant, and brokerage shares significantly lower, and they found company in biotech, airline, drug, cyclical, and technology... The latter was hurt by a Deutsche Bank downgrade of Cisco Systems (CSCO 18.97 -0.68) to Hold from Buy...

Even energy shares headed lower despite the jump in crude oil prices, which was brought on by an eighth week of US oil inventory declines... Treasuries, conversely, enjoyed a wave of buying in its market - the yield on the 10-year note finishing below the 4.0% level for the first time since April...SOX -3.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 1007/2302, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 780/2277

3:30PM : Sellers remain a persistent bunch as the equity market lurch lower again... The market started with large losses in the first minutes of trading, and those have only gotten worse as the day has gone on... At this point, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are poised to close 1.3-1.8% lower, which is worse than the performance over in Asia (Nikkei -0.6%) and Europe (DAX Index -1.2%)... Small cap issues (-1.8%) in the US have actually underperformed their large-cap counterparts as traders have looked to reduce exposure to (what is perceived to be) more risk-oriented investments...NYSE Adv/Dec 1024/2231, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 734/2302:eyes: Love that qualifier!

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 996 (28%) 780 (24%)
Declines 2316 (66%) 2277 (70%)
Unchanged 157 (4%) 156 (4%)

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Up Vol* 211 (15%) 342 (21%)
Down Vol* 1158 (83%) 1225 (77%)
Unch. Vol* 10 (0%) 8 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 103 50
New Lo's 27 37