Zogby: Race for President Falls Back into Dead Heat

[kskiska]

The race for President of the United States continued to tighten during the last two weeks, as President Bush continued his long, hard slog back toward parity with Democratic challenger John Kerry, throwing the race into a virtual dead heat, the latest package of polls by Zogby Interactive shows.

Based on individual polls conducted simultaneously Sept. 13-17 in 20 battleground states, neither Mr. Bush nor Mr. Kerry holds a clear-cut lead in enough states to win the Electoral College votes required to capture the White House. Here’s the latest chart:

Couldn't copy the chart, but here's the latest figure
Sept. 21 Electoral
Bush 241
Kerry 264

Two states remain too close to call: Florida (no surprise) and Arkansas, home to former President Clinton, who has recently generated sympathy with his successful quadruple bypass surgery and headlines with his emergence as a chief advisor to Mr. Kerry, fielding strategic questions from his New York City hospital bed. Arkansas, with 6 electoral votes, had been in the pocket of Mr. Bush, who won it four years ago. By itself, it is unimportant in the presidential election. However, paired with one other small state, it could make all the difference in the world. Because the race is so close this year, every little state matters.

Undecided Florida and Arkansas together comprise 33 votes.

more…
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=868

[RevolutionStartsNow]

1. Go Arkansas!

How long until some Repub suggests that Clinton staged his illness to gain sympathy for the Dems? It's probably already been said...

Seriously, I hope the race is not as close as Zogby thinks, because a close race opens the door for massive voter fraud by Rove et al.

I'm personally hoping for and planning for a Kerry landslide! Go ahead, steal a state or two, it won't matter, we'll kick your ass in the other swing states!

[shockingelk]

2. AR has heterosexual superiority amendment on ballot

Expect big turn out from freedom hating Republicans.

[Erika]

3. Goodness Is On Kerry's Side

Bush is not a nice man.

[yankeedem]

8. Haven't seen that, but their spin is even better

Clinton decided to have surgery now, so that he wouldn't have to campaign for Kerry and Hillary would have a clear shot in 2008.

That and Clinton is savaging the Kerry campaign by placing his operatives in the campaign.

[Rageneau]

4. My Part of Arkansas is Fired Up!

Tonight I attended the 'grand' opening of the Kerry-Edwards campaign office in Fort Smith, Arkansas, located in the northwest corner of the state, which is by far its most conservative region. Wal-Mart is headquartered in this congressional district, for example, and the only Republican in the Arkansas delegation is from this district.

But now the good news.

The place was packed! And the crowd of us who crammed in there were lucky enough to meet two very special guests -- inspirations to Democrats everywhere.

The first was Susan McDougal -- bravest woman in America and one of the most genuine and warm-hearted people you could ever hope to meet. Susan drove herself up from Camden (nearly 175 miles), at her own expense, for no reason other than to help rally the troops.

The other guest was just as extraordinary. He is Fred Short, one of TWO band-of-brother Arkansans who served with Lieutenant Kerry on PC 94. He was present on the days Kerry won his medals for valor and he was emphatic that they were more than well-deserved. His description of the events of those days -- and of Kerry's heroism and leadership -- were far more vivid and extensive than I've ever heard described before. He credited JFK personally for saving his life by his quick, courageous action. No one could hear him and not be convinced that Kerry is a born leader.

I came away from the event more encouraged than I have been in a long while. Kerry's recent (long awaited) decision to take the fight to Bush, combined with a higher level of enthusism among local Democrats than even our oldest local activist (95) says she's ever seen before, have made me think the good guys might just win this one after all.

If western Arkansas even comes close to splitting the vote, the rest of the state will almost certainly go Kerry. So I'm going to do what I can to make that happen.

I mean, how can you say 'no' to Susan McDougal?

[izzie]

5. Well watch the polls. Ashcroft has just saved us from a great singer.

When the Bush people know they have saved the country from Cat Stevens the polls for Bush should go through the roof.

[rullery]

6. If current Zogby poll results hold up through the election,

and Kerry does take Arkansas' 6 electoral votes, he would get 270 electoral votes, just enough to win the presidency! As a Floridian, I think Kerry will win Florida's 27 votes too; but brother Jeb and Glenda Hood (who replaced Katherine Harris) are likely to pull some strings to steal the Florida election for Bush, as in 2000.

Given the fact that Bush has fairly large margins in some southern and western states, it could be that Kerry might win the electoral vote but lose the popular vote. Personally I relish that idea, as payback for what happened in 2000. How the Republicans would scream!

However realistically I expect that Kerry's lead will increase, and he will win big in November. I am hopeful too that we may take back the Congress, or at least the Senate.

[MaineDem]

7. Is Glenda the good witch or the bad witch?

I don't trust the Bush cabal at all. I truly hope the Florida votes are cast and counted proporly. Everyone is watching; it should be hard to screw it up, but I don't trust them.

[FlaIndie]

10. Can't watch computers

and who makes the computers that could lose data or be hacked and make it impossible to find out who votes for whom?

Diebold Inc., the company whose president said he would make sure Shrub is returned to the White House.

[truthisfreedom]

9. here's the electoral-vote.com chart

Kerry 269, bush 253

[FlaIndie]

11. They still show some stupid crap.

Iowa going to Bush? Or New Mexico?!?!?!?!!? Stupid friggin Gallup. Reprobes are over-respresented in alll of their polls and they don't crunch the numbers like Zogby does (the guy who accurately predicted the 2000 race). And Maryland, oi. While Florida may or may not go Kerry;s way, the 17 EVs from Iowa and Maryland need to go into JFK's total. No way does he lose either.

Well, at least they finally got another poll from NJ that put Kerry ahead, like every other poll besides the last one they went with.

Kerry will win every Gore state and New Hampshire. That puts him on the threshold for the 270 needed to win the election. He just needs to pull off either Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Arkansas, or Nevada, all states where *'s lead is within the margin of error and where Kerry has led in some polls.

[llmart]

12. This can't be right....

The talking heads on TV keep saying * has a commanding lead. Well, I guess all us Dems just better stay home and save our gas because * has it all sewed up (yeah, right).

[The Backlash Cometh]

13. Thanks for the good news.

We're taking a great deal of flak over here over the CBS issue. But I hope it's an opportunity. We need to find out who composed those forgeries. I suspect a Republican is behind it.

[cspiguy]

14. gotta hand it to ol Zog

He sticks his neck out when all the other analysts are getting ready to stick a fork in Kerry/Edwards.

[0007]

15. Kerry in a landslide. America does not have enough idiots

to carry junior any further than Berry Goldwater.

[Zorra]

16. kick