STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY AUGUST 25.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday August 25, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 516
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 285
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 257 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 315 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 157
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 641
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 22, 2003

Dow 9,348.87 -74.81 (-0.79%)
Nasdaq 1,765.32 -12.23 (-0.69%)
S&P 500..... 993.06 -10.21 (-1.02%)
10-Year Bond 4.46% -0.05 (-1.07%)
Gold future...... 364.90 +0.60 (+0.16%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Investing and Physics

My thoughts on the stock market for this week are rather abstract. Energy is neither created nor destroyed, it only changes form. Don’t fool with Mother Nature. What goes up must come down. Water seeks its own level. Probably most functional in today’s stock market environment is Newton’s third Law of Motion which states, “For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.” For every buyer, there is a seller. It's always a two-sided trade.

Looking at the three-year chart of the S&P 500, I see an ongoing rhythm of action and reaction. I don’t see any reason for the pattern to change dramatically at this point. Some investors view the current consolidation or narrow trading range as a flag formation that would imply a continuation of the uptrend, while others see a topping pattern that is just about to head down.

Looking at the five-day chart of the S&P 500 for this week, it’s looking a bit worn out. It’s tired and wants to take a rest. The cheerleaders are ranting about all the economic good news and the projected second-half increases of GDP in the 3.5-4.0% range. With financial engineering via manipulation of the money supply, deficit spending and creative accounting, I have little doubt that the numbers can be fine tuned to depict economic improvement. I am not however, convinced that the improvement in economic numbers will show up in corporate earnings.

more

[JNelson6563]

3. haha I clipped a different portion

no dupes in this thread! ;-)

Julie

[JNelson6563]

2. Good Morning Ozy!!

Hope you had a good weekend!

Here's a bit from Hartman's wrap-up:

All of the economic good news has money rushing back into the U.S. Dollar. Perceived weakness in Europe has moved money out of the euro and back into U.S. dollars for the very near term. All of the economic stimulus has pushed money back into the dollar, but I do not expect the trend to last long. The dollar strengthened to 1.088 euros, and the U.S. Dollar Index moved from 96.64 last Friday to 98.81 today, a gain of 2.2% for the week. Since the middle of June the dollar has strengthened by 7.4% as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index.

This is where Newton’s first Law of Motion comes into play. It states that, “Every body will remain at rest or in a uniform state of motion unless acted upon by force.” The dollar could very well remain in a consolidation pattern for the next few months, but when reality hits, forces will act upon the dollar. The money flows should reverse themselves as soon as investors realize that both Japan and Europe have a net Current Account surplus, while we struggle with unprecedented deficits and are dependant on foreigners to borrow more money. Those are the basics that will keep the dollar in a bear market for the next few years. This last rally has been nothing more than a counter-trend correction that is now meeting some serious resistance as it wrestles with the 200-day moving average. For the near term I expect the dollar to stay range-bound from 92 to 100 on the $USD Index, but when 92 is broken on the downside, the real fireworks begin! That takes us directly to the Precious Metals Arena.

<snip>

Something else that is noteworthy from Newton’s Law with regard to acceleration is that the acceleration is inversely proportional to the mass of the body. In this example the “body” is gold and gold stocks. Put into financial market terms, the market capitalizations of the mining companies are absolutely miniscule relative to the overall market. If recollection serves me, the market cap of all precious metals mining companies combined is about the same as Microsoft. The law says the smaller the mass the faster the acceleration. The mass of gold and silver stocks is tiny; therefore, the acceleration could be dramatic!

Should be an interesting week!

More in a bit--

Julie

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning Julie!

It was a good weekend. I hope yours was splendid!

Do you know what happened to Jim Puplava? He always had the longest, most interesting wrapups.

This is another case of hello - I must be going. Alas, my son is off to daycare and I must go to work.

I will check in after 1pm.

Ozymandius

[jamesinca]

4. Good morning all

Cadence says it will move jobs overseas, trying to keep its head above water. Cadence is a San Jose based maker of software that designs computer chips. Electronic Design Automation or EDA software is expecting a market downturn for the first time in 10 years. Intel and IBM buy this type of software.

<SNIP>

Cadence Design Systems Inc., the San Jose maker of software used to design computer chips, plans to move more of its Silicon Valley jobs to China and India as it cuts costs amid stiff competition and an industry downturn, chief executive Ray Bingham said Friday.

<SNIP>

"What you'll see from us is a continuing theme, moving more jobs to a cost- effective place," Bingham said. During a July 15 conference call, Cadence officials said the company would cut 500 jobs, or 10 percent of its workforce.

Cadence is locked in fierce competition with Synopsys Inc. of Mountain View in the $4 billion industry for software used by companies like Intel and IBM to help build new chips. Although semiconductor sales are expected to rebound this year after a two-year slump, chipmakers are cutting the amount they spend on such software to boost profits.

Analysts expect sales of these products, known as electronic design automation, or EDA, software, to drop this year for the first time in at least a decade. Cadence's 2003 revenue is expected to fall to $1.1 billion from $1.4 billion last year.

<SNIP>

"In India and China, we can get three to five equivalent engineers for what we pay one here," Bingham said.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/08/25/BU294040.DTL
---------------------------------------------------------------------

In other news, Macromedia is unveiling its new versions of Web site building and application software today.

Mixed news for the software/computer industry today.

[JNelson6563]

6. Oh boy!! More jobs leaving!!

I thought that we all needed to get ejakated so we wouldn't lose our jobs overseas. Well, as long as Bush contributors make more money, no matter!

That asshole.

Julie

[jamesinca]

7. Bush says education, company says cost

They did not check with each other before they made their analysis. What is worse for that particular type of software is it tends to lag several years behind the rest of the market. They are just now starting to feel the pinch and just now downsizing. So they will be hurting for at least two years.

[JNelson6563]

9. puts a new meaning

to the long used excuse that "employment is a lagging indicator". You know, the excuse we've been hearing since the Simian came into office.......

Julie

[JNelson6563]

8. stocks set to slip at open:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. stocks indexes braced for modest losses at the open Monday while the government bond market raced higher.
The September S&P 500 contract shaved 1.10 points, or 0.1 percent, and the Nasdaq 100 contract slipped 4.00 points, or 0.3 percent.

Treasury issues mounted and across-the-board rally, with the 10-year Treasury note up 13/32 to yield (CBOE:^TNX - News) 4.425 percent and the 30-year government bond putting on 13/32 to yield (CBOE:^TYX - News) 5.23 percent.

This week's economic calendar is jam-packed with releases, and includes July existing home sales on Monday.

Among the other reports on tap this week: August consumer confidence, July durable goods orders, July new homes sales, the revision to second-quarter gross domestic product, July personal income and spending figures, the final reading on the University of Michigan's sentiment index and the August Chicago Purchasing Managers index.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/030825/e72d572a607f634f151011756c5e9ea7_1.html

We'll know in about 10 minutes.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

10. one minute in and it looks like

we may be off to a downward trend......no telling though:

Dow 9,339.82 -9.05 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,764.19 -1.13 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 992.89 -0.17 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.443% -0.016


Should be fun to watch!

Julie

[Maeve]

11. 9:42--did ya miss me?

Dow 9,311.75 -37.12 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,761.73 -3.59 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 991.08 -1.98 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.450% -0.009

B-)

[Maeve]

12. 10:35 with blather

Dow 9,300.94 -47.93 (-0.51%)
Nasdaq 1,756.94 -8.38 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 989.89 -3.17 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.475% +0.016

10:00AM: Equity market remains on the defensive with the bulk of industry leadership to the downside... Financial, biotech, and transportation are all trading lower, and stymieing the indices' upside movement... Technology has also lost ground, despite a number of positive analyst calls... For instance, Soundview raised its price targets on several semiconductor stocks, and upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 10.26 +0.35) to Outperform from Neutral, citing further evidence of broad-based semiconductor recovery...
However, comments out of Intel (INTC 27.57 +0.18) CEO Craig Barrett this weekend - that is "too early to suggest it is a total turnaround" - have challenged Soundview's view... Meanwhile, July Existing Home Sales was just released, and rose to 6.12 mln (consensus of 5.90 mln)...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[JNelson6563]

16. AHHH!!! MAEVE!!!!

What a moron I am........just jump in post update and keep head up ass........

Heck yeah we missed you girl!!!! How was your trip??? Great to see ya back! Look forward to hearing all about it! Got any pics?? How are things in the Homeland of the Greatest Race Ever? hahaha

Big hugs :-)

Julie

[ozymandius]

27. ALL HAIL QUEEN OF CONNACHT!

MAEVE! Glad you're back. I look forward to a myriad of details in due time.

[jamesinca]

13. I go for a short run at the park and the market drops 40 points

Remind me not ot leave my computer during business hours. So what is driving it down today?

[JNelson6563]

14. Who knows....

There is almost no telling with the markets these days as the rules change a lot lately, like Calvin-ball.

It's 11:04 and here's how it looks:

Dow 9,294.20 -54.67 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,754.47 -10.85 (-0.61%)
S&P 500 989.47 -3.59 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.488% +0.029


So now we have money leaving the markets and treasuries. I am starting to hear some frantic splashing around, will it be followed by a flushing sound?

Julie

[Coventina]

15. The "I Ching" on today's market

MAEVE IS BACK!!!!!!!!
HOORAY!

How was the trip?!?!?

While I'm waiting for the answer, today's reading had no changing lines. The only hexagram shown was ADVERSITY. Ching advises to "remain emotionally stable and optimistic. Hold your fears in check. If you indulge in insecurities, you may succumb to the overwhelming urge of the times."

I predict a DOWN day for the markets.

[JNelson6563]

17. I suspect the I Ching

is looking for a way to say RUN without inciting panic. ;-)

Good to see you Coventina!

Julie

[JNelson6563]

18. treasuries=red-haired step-child

(no offense to red-haired step-children)


Dow 9,293.22 -55.65 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 1,752.95 -12.37 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 989.60 -3.46 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.535% +0.076


11:21 and getting darker.......

Julie

[Maeve]

19. 12:30 and no offense taken

(Seeing as I am red-haired and Mom remarried after Dad died...) :P

Trip was fantastic! Great weather for the most part, wonderful people and the sights...the country is just wall-to-wall scenery!! It was also nice to be in a country that is not "at war", where there is not a constant barrage of news and data and the biggest issue is the future ban on smoking in pubs...(good news for health, bad news for pubs, as near as I can tell) Heard many of y'all were in the dark for a while back here. Not that it interfered with Shrub's vacation....

Dow 9,293.72 -55.15 (-0.59%)
Nasdaq 1,755.89 -9.43 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 990.75 -2.31 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.543% +0.084

[JNelson6563]

20. ah the scenery,

I cannot wait to see it for myself! Very exciting.

I'll bet it was nice to be someplace where it's not fear-mongering 24/7. So do they all think America needs to sit down and share a pint and get over ourselves or what? haha

Julie

[Maeve]

21. Couple of notes about Irish tv reporting

First, I noted the term was "alleged weapons of mass distruction"--no acceptance of the Bush/Blair certainty of WMD.

Second, the focus was much more on the continuing damage Blair's reputation is taking and America is less important than we see ourselves. Some sympathy for how traumatized we all are percieved to be, but...yeah, get on with life.

And don't expect the UN to clean up the mess you made against their advice. Europe is irrelevant, remember? :eyes:

[mrsteve]

22. 2:20 - markets still down - Nasdaq up a bit, but still down for day

So I guess all the "Intel is showing that we're solidly in recovery" talk last week isn't holding much water.

Dow 9,293.01 -55.86 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 1,759.83 -5.49 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 991.41 -1.65 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.527% +0.068

Yahoo Fi analysis:

"2:00PM: Major indices continue to sport moderate losses as a number of developments have left buyers on edge... Specifically, comments out of Intel (INTC 27.22 -0.17) Chairman Craig Barrett have not inspired much confidence in the much talked-about "tech sector turnaround" as they served to downplay talk of a meaningful recovery... As such, must of tech has traded lower, and contributed to the indices' weakened technical condition...
Despite this, Briefing.com would note that the major indices have held at key support levels, and although they may be due for some further consolidation on a near-term basis, stocks should continue to move higher over the long-term as the economy improves...NYSE Adv/Dec 1194/1959, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1148/1916"

[JNelson6563]

23. good to see the 10yr

settling down. Earlier yields were up 10 basis points. Pretty crazy in such a short time.

I'd say "interesting times" is quite an understated way to describe this period.

Julie

[mrsteve]

24. Didn't it jump around last week?

Several days it seemed that it was up .06 - .07% at close at least twice last week. Been wondering about that myself.

[JNelson6563]

25. yeah it's been kinda crazy

for weeks now.

2:57 and you are here:


Dow 9,285.71 -63.16 (-0.68%)
Nasdaq 1,756.42 -8.90 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 990.42 -2.64 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.536% +0.077

Will we see a miracle in this last hour?

Julie

[Maeve]

26. Miracle? Don't bet on it!

Dow 9,295.33 -53.54 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq 1,758.00 -7.32 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 991.22 -1.84 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.527% +0.068

[ozymandius]

28. 3:32 and it looks like the figures are resigned to be lower.

DJIA 9,296.66 -52.21 (-0.56%)
NASDAQ 1,758.41 -6.91 (-0.39%)
S&P 500 991.38 -1.68 (-0.17%)

[ozymandius]

29. On the road with John (good read)

BY JOHN SUGG
Who finds that America is running on inertia

Back when Mark Twain was dodging the sand bars on the Mississippi River and Teddy Roosevelt was roaring from his bully pulpit, Odin mirrored the rest of that youthful brawler dubbed the United States. There were coal and oil mines. The Illinois Central and Baltimore & Ohio railroads intersected at Odin. Industry flourished. People made things. There were thousands of folks in the town -- it wasn't a struggle to keep four digits on Odin's road marker. Earning a living wasn't a problem -- jobs grew faster than the corn.

"All of that's gone now," Jeanie Winkler -- who has, as she says, worked at the Village Hall "almost forever" -- told me last month. Odin is clearly and sadly tired. "We're like a lot towns in America. Business has got up and gone."
<..cut..>

A half-century ago, more than a third of working Americans made and built things. Today, the percentage barely reaches double digits. One in seven manufacturing jobs has been killed since George Bush copped the presidency.

Those horrible acronyms -- NAFTA, GATT, WTO, IMF -- have cost millions of American jobs. The free-trade fanatics and multinational corporations (by their very definition these once American firms have no loyalty to this nation and, indeed, are guilty of treasonously undermining the United States) promised we'd prosper from globalization. But first the factories closed and the work went to the maquiladoras on the Mexican borders. Now, even cheap Mexican labor isn't profitable enough for the plutocrats, so the jobs are being sent to the sweatshops and prison factories of China. Both American and Mexican workers are victims.

[JNelson6563]

30. We are on the road to ruin

thanks to the greed of the incredibly wealthy/powerful few.

Ah well, 3:48 and things are looking up on the Street--I mean we all might eek out a few pennies after-all so who are we to complain?


Dow 9,314.35 -34.52 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 1,761.85 -3.47 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 993.14 +0.08 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.527% +0.068


A last hour miracle! How......predictable.

Julie

[ozymandius]

31. Correct me if I'm wrong, but...

Didn't Bush respond to a question asking if he is concerned about the economy with the words - "the stock market is looking up"?

Someone tell me how the stock market's performance is any indicator of the overall quality of life for everyone living in the U.S. I just posted an article in the Editorials forum from the same news mag. The article concerns an average "Joe" who has been unable to find a job even as the stock market is "looking up".

edit: spelling

[Maeve]

33. Small-time miracle--final numbers

Not what most would call "impressive". More like "mediocre".

Dow 9,316.03 -32.84 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 1,764.31 -1.01 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 993.58 +0.52 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.527% +0.068

[mrsteve]

32. Closing numbers

The Dow gave back some of Friday's joy, the S&P barely hung in there, and the Nasdaq wandered off just below sea level.

Dow 9,316.03 -32.84 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 1,764.31 -1.01 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 993.51 +0.45 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.527% +0.068