US economic outlook downgraded: WSJ survey

[Career Prole]

"WASHINGTON (AFP) - US economists have trimmed their forecasts for hiring and economic growth in view of steep energy prices and other factors, a Wall Street Journal survey showed.

The Journal's periodic survey of 55 economists showed that on average, they expect the economy to expand at a 3.6 percent rate in the third quarter and 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter.

As recently as June, the panel had forecast growth at an average rate of 4.3 percent over the balance of the year."
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040909/bs_afp/us_economy_survey

We're just all about revisions nowadays, it seems. Have economists always had this much trouble with forecasts?

Edited for link

[Jacobin]

1. Wasn't there supposed to be a corner......

[UpInArms]

3. too bad it was just one that took us

into a darkened dead-end.

[Career Prole]

4. LOL! Sure was! I guess we've

...turned it!

[yellowcanine]

2. Have economists always had this much trouble with forecasts? Heh. As

long as I can remember. Anyone who makes a financial decision based on an economic forecast is nuts.

[Career Prole]

7. Yeah...I hadn't really paid so much attention to the "numbers" until

shrubonomics. Then I noticed that just about every figure that was released would be "revised" the following month.
This was the first time I'd noticed them revising before rather than after.

[barb162]

15. whenever there is a recession,

the government wants to put out rosier numbers than really called for. I think the civil service economists get pressured by the likes of Cheney. During the elder Bush reign, I remember the same crap happening. Each month, the previous quarter would get revised down sometimes 2 and 3 times. His father played the same game as sonnyboy. He kept saying we were out of the recession and of coure we weren't.

[sendero]

22. Their overall track record...

... is about as good as that of Texas weathermen. If you want to know what the weather is doing, look outside and if you make plans based on a forecast prepare to be dissapointed.

[Catfight]

5. You know, Bush might have to take some more anti-depressants

after today!

[Cary]

6. Economics isn't really a forecasting tool

Any forecast is just an educated guess

[Career Prole]

9. Shrub sure makes it *sound* like the economy's mighty predictable...

"Steady growth", I remember hearing much more than once...along with booming and robust. :eyes:

[AndyTiedye]

10. "Voodoo Economics" -- The Only True Words Bush I Ever Said

not only because Reaganomics was voodoo, but ALL economics is voodoo.

[barb162]

16. and Bush II is using the same incorrect

"supply side" economic theories that Bush I used. It was Stockton, I believe, the bigshot economics guy they used. He then disavowed his own theory, but another Bush gets in, and here we go with another round of the same discredited shit.

[tandot]

8. we are turning the corner...ups...sorry...U-Turn

[theoceansnerves]

11. earth to wsj:

no shit!

[happynewyear]

12. inflation is evil and ....

its breaking the back of the American economy IMO. Soon enough, not another $750,000.00 home in southern California will be worth two hoots in hell at best.

Sell now or forever hold your peace!

[struggle4progress]

13. kick for turning in circles

:kick:

[Eric J in MN]

14. It's almost as if Alan Greenspan's statement that the economy

is gaining "traction" isnt' true.

Unless he meant that the economy is getting better for the rich.

[barb162]

17. he has become such a propagandist for the Bushies

makes no sense as he hates big deficits. I think the Bushies paid him off as he hasn't said a word about the Iraq war and other costly deficit and budget items (other than social programs).

[Career Prole]

21. I'm inclined to agree with you. Something fishy is going on with

Greenspan.
He certainly doesn't seem to be the same guy Paul O'Neill described in "The Price of Loyalty". He hated big deficits and tried with O'Neill in 2000 to get bush to shrink the tax cut and use one trillion of our former surplus to finance seamless social security reform.
Last week he popped up and sounded as if he'd just noticed social security was a problem.
He doesn't seem like the same impartial observer he's been in the past.

[barb162]

18. notice how "the economy turning the corner"

and Greenspan saying"gaining traction" fit so well together. Like rehearsed?

Just keep saying these things month after month and people start believing it despite ALL THE EVIDENCE.

[The_Casual_Observer]

19. The report is a fraud! It was typed on a word processor!!!

[uhhuh]

20. LOL!!!!

Good one!!