STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 9 September

[ozymandius]

Thursday September 9, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 133
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 54
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 272 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 326 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 539
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1022
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 8, 2004

Dow... 10,313.36 -29.43 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq... 1,850.64 -7.92 (-0.43%)
S&P 500... 1,116.27 -5.03 (-0.45%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.16% -0.08 (-1.95%)
Gold future... 401.40 +2.00 (+0.50%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

SOBER FED WARNINGS SEND DOLLAR LOWER

Today’s market activity was completely focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s testimony before the House Budget Committee and subsequent release of the Fed’s Beige Book on economic activity. Probably the most commonly quoted statement from his prepared remarks will be, “The most recent data suggests that on the whole, the expansion has regained some traction.” The stock bulls did all they could to spin the positive economic comments higher, but overall the markets got a rather sobering message from the Fed chairman and investors reacted defensively by bidding bonds higher, stocks mixed to lower and the dollar was nailed lower taking the brunt of Mr. Greenspan’s warnings.

-cut-

Even though the Fed chairman suggested there is evidence to show an improving economy, the markets reacted much more to his overt warnings on excessive government spending by going deeper into debt. He said, “The prospects for the federal budget over the longer term remain troubling. With the baby-boomers starting to retire in a few years, and health spending continuing to soar, our budget position will almost surely deteriorate substantially in coming years if current policies remain in place.” Mr. Greenspan expressed a fear that we may have promised more to future retirees than the economy can afford. According to the Social Security Trustees’ 2004 report, beginning in 2018 even with a 12.4% tax Social Security will not be able to cover the outlays. As it stands, the Congressional Budget Office estimates U.S. budget deficits will total $2.3 trillion over the next decade, and could reach $4.3 trillion if the current tax cuts are extended rather than allowing them to expire. These deficits are definitely the ball and chain around the U.S. dollar.

Lower Earnings Ahead

The enormous government deficits also remind me of the $billions and $billions of under-funded corporate pension plans that will have to take cash out of future corporate earnings to fully fund current obligations. I see financial pressure mounting on corporate earnings to shore-up pension plans, pay for the persistently high energy costs, and pay for continuously rising medical costs. If consumers continue to pull back on spending we could also see reduced revenues on top of lower gross margins. I expect to hear more companies announce lower guidance for earnings as we move closer to the end of the year. Today Coca-Cola gave a profit warning and announced third quarter earnings are expected to be $0.38 to $0.40 per share, while Thomson First Call said the average analyst estimate was for $0.49 per share. Coke shares fell 4.8% today to close at $43.45. Looking at the broader market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 29 points to close at 10,313, the NASDAQ Composite fell seven points to 1,850, and the S&P 500 was down five points to close at 1,116. I just keep wondering how the bulls will keep this market afloat for another two months until the election…they say not to fight the Fed, but this sure looks like a good time to fade the stock market! I think most of the market players could see right through Mr. Greenspan’s comment about the economy picking up traction as an optimistic cheer-leading proposition. Today the stock market said, “I’ll believe it when I see the earnings!”

<<JOBS>>

On the jobs outlook, remember we have lost roughly one million jobs since March 2001. These are the people that will have the most difficulty making their mortgage payments even though they probably refinanced to today’s low mortgage rates. Yesterday Challenger, Gray & Christmas said plans for job cuts increased 4,578 to 74,150 in August and today Delta Airlines said they will cut as many as 7,000 jobs or 12% of their workforce by 2006. They are trying to cut $5 billion in costs or they face the very real possibility of bankruptcy.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Economic Growth Slowed in Many Regions

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - While the U.S. economy continued to grow in late July and August, growth slowed in several regions as household spending softened, the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) said on Wednesday.

Household spending weakened because of "lackluster retail sales and some cooling in new and existing home sales," the Fed said in the "beige book," which offers an anecdotal look at the U.S. economy from the perspective of its 12 regional banks.

It also said while U.S. employment grew over the period, regional Fed banks reported "some unevenness" across industry sectors. Manufacturing activity improved across the nation, especially in capital and durable goods, the Fed said.

-cut-

It also noted high nonwage labor costs, such as health care and other benefits, continued to increase rapidly despite modest wage pressures.

story

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning all.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I have missed being here. Even checking the day's comments in the evening has been impossible at times. Family is flying into town today. So I will be scarce again as we race to prepare.

I have finished dotting the 'i's and crossing the't's in closing my shop. If someone would just buy some hand tools then I will have pruned my tool inventory to the basic array needed to make art and "love projects".

Be well. I hope you have a wonderful day at the Casino.

Ozy :hi:

[ze_dscherman]

4. Hi ozy!

Past noon here, but hi :hi: anyway. It´'s pretty busy at my job right now, so I don't even read through the thread anymore.

Have a great day, too!

ze_dscherman

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.87 Change +0.10 (+0.11%)

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH49827_2004-09-09_11-44-50_L09582576

FOREX-Dollar struggles after Greenspan, yen weighed

LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a one-week low against the euro on Thursday, extending losses made after Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan's comments on U.S. inflation cast doubt on the pace of rate hikes after September.

The yen also slipped broadly after Japan's soft machinery orders data and a government downgrade in its view on exports and output raised concerns the recovery might be losing momentum.

Greenspan's statement before Congress on Wednesday that the U.S. economy was picking up after a June soft patch helped cement investor expectations of a rate hike in September.

But the prospects for further tightening became unclear after Greenspan said inflation expectations had eased in recent months. He also said it was tough to assess the economic impact from oil prices and warned the U.S. budget deficit was a worry in the long term.

"Greenspan surprised the market by not being as upbeat as people had expected. He also chose to focus on the oil price uncertainty -- it seems the Fed is moving towards an assessment that oil price risk is more connected with growth than inflation," said Kristjan Kasikov, currency strategist at Calyon.

"After the speech expectations for further tightening in the U.S. have been pared back."

...more...

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/09/commentary/column_hays/hays/

Reading Tea Leaves: Part II
Greenspan's testimony leaves us right back where we started before the numbers got squishy.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It's the Fed's story and officials are sticking to it: the economy hit an oil slick and stumbled this summer but now it's back on track with jobs growing at a respectable rate.

That in a nutshell is what Fed chief Alan Greenspan told Congress Wednesday, following the script that had been tipped off by other Fed official's speeches over the past few weeks. And of course Mr. G. warned Congress again that the deficit is too big and the amount of money coming in to pay for baby boomers to retire is too small, unless some big changes are made pronto.

Easy for him to say: the Fed has nothing to do with setting the government's tax and spend policies. But it probably doesn't hurt to rub politicians' noses in it in hopes of stirring them into action.


So where does this all leave us?

Right back where we thought we were before some squishy job and consumer spending numbers led some to believe the Fed might take a vacation from its self-proclaimed rate hiking schedule.

Once again Wall Street expects the Fed to hike its key rate from 1.50% to 1.75% on September 21, and possibly to hike in November and December, too.

The reason for this doesn't seem to be that the Fed has a big inflation worry right now. Even the Fed's latest Beige Book assessment of the economy, compiled from anecdotal evidence assembled by it's 12 regional banks, said this week that inflation was flat or up modestly in July and early August. The same report said that while the economic recovery continued, growth had softened in some districts as consumer spending eased up.

The Fed's view, and the view of many Wall Street economists who support the Fed on its rate-hiking mission is that raising rates from such low levels will have little impact on the economy and will prevent a pickup in inflation down the road. That's why most believe, especially after listening to Mr. G., that it will take a lot more than a little softness to dissuade the Fed from hiking rates.

...more...

It's MaeveDay! Here are the reports due out this morning:

Sep 09 8:30 AM
Export Prices ex-ag. Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates NA
market anticipates NA
last report 0.6%
-

Sep 09 8:30 AM
Import Prices ex-oil Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates NA
market anticipates NA
last report 0.1%
-

Sep 09 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 09/04
report -
briefing.com anticipates 345K
market anticipates 345K
last report 362K
-

Sep 09 10:00 AM
Wholesale Inventories Jul
report -
briefing.com anticipates 0.8%
market anticipates 0.6%
last report 1.1%
-

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

6. here come the reports

8:30am 09/09/04 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 44K TO 319K

8:30am 09/09/04 U.S. 4-WK AVG INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 3,750 TO 339K

8:30am 09/09/04 DROP IN INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS BIGGEST SINCE DEC. 2001

8:30am 09/09/04 DROP IN CLAIMS DUE PARTLY TO STORMS, SEASONAL FACTORS

8:30am 09/09/04 U.S. AUG. IMPORT PRICES UP.1.7% VS. 0.7% EXPECTED

8:30am 09/09/04 U.S. AUG EX-OIL IMPORT PRICES UP 0.4%

8:30am 09/09/04 U.S. AUG. EXPORT PRICES DOWN 0.5%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38239.3545833333-820092259&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. Aug. import prices up 1.7% on oil, raw materials

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Prices paid for imports into the United States jumped 1.7 percent in August as imported petroleum surged 9.6 percent, the Labor Department reported Thursday. It was the biggest increase in 20 months. Import prices are up 7.2 percent year-over-year, the biggest increase since early 2003. Excluding petroleum, prices rose 0.4 percent in August and 3.2 percent in the past year. It's the fastest increase in non-petroleum import prices in nine years. Export prices have risen 3.9 percent in the past 12 months, despite a 0.5 percent decline in August. Prices of imported industrial materials rose 5.5 percent.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38239.3545601852-820092256&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. initial jobless claims plunge 44,000

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The number of workers filing for state unemployment benefits plunged by 44,000 in the week ending Sept. 4 to 319,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the biggest decline in initial claims since December 2001. The drop was attributed in part to the impact of storms that have battered Florida in the past month and to problems adjusting for seasonal factors, a Labor Department spokesman said. The four-week average of initial claims, which smoothes out distortions caused by weather and holidays, fell by 3,750 to 339,250. The number of former workers continuing to receive state benefits rose by 20,000 to 2.9 million in the week ending Aug. 28. The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.3 percent.

[UpInArms]

8. Treasurys lose ground after jobless claims drop

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38239.3710763889-820094234&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- U.S. Treasury prices have pared most of their initial gains after weekly jobless claims came in below expectations, falling 44,000 to 319,000 for the week ending Sept. 4. While the Labor Department cited a drop in part to Hurricane Charley, one economist said Hurricane Francis may have have played a role, with evacuations preventing some from filing intended claims. "With Ivan now on track to hit Florida again at the end of the week, the claims numbers will be significantly distorted for some time yet, and should therefore be ignored, said Ian Shepherdson, Chief U.S. economist, High Frequency Economics. The benchmark 10-year note was up 2/32 at 100 24/32. Its yield ($TNX) at 4.16 percent.

[UpInArms]

19. inventories report in

10:00am 09/09/04 U.S. JULY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UP 1.3%

10:00am 09/09/04 U.S. JULY WHOLESALE SALES UP 0.5%

10:00am 09/09/04 U.S. JULY WHOLESALE INVENTORY-SALES RATIO RISES TO 1.16

10:00am 09/09/04 U.S. JULY AUTO WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UP 2.3%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38239.4168287037-820099914&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

U.S. July wholesale inventories rise 1.3%

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Inventories at U.S. wholesale dealers increased a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent in July, including a record 21.2 percent increase in petroleum inventories, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Wholesale sales increased 0.5 percent in July. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.16 in July from 1.15 in June. The inventory-to-sales ratio has risen three months in a row from a record low 1.12 in April. Economists were expecting inventories to increase about 0.7 percent in July after June's 1.1 percent gain. Auto inventories increased 2.3 percent.

[54anickel]

7. Economic Flux

Time for corporations to take that baton the consumers have been trying to pass on. Question is, even if they do will it be enough now that our economy is 2/3 consumerism?

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

snip>

More anecdotal evidence that the economy is expanding comes from Parker Hannifin and Yellow Roadway. Parker Hannifin, the world’s largest motion control products manufacturer, said that orders jumped 17% in August versus a year ago. The nation’s largest trucking company, raised earnings guidance for the third quarter. CEO, William Zollars, was quoted in a Bloomberg article saying, “This is probably the best pricing environment we have seen in the last 10 years. Capacity is getting tighter as we move into the peak shipping season, allowing us to raise prices.”

Wal-Mart announced that same store sales were on plan. This comes after the leading retailer announced weak August same store sales. The leading retailer also mentioned that sales of paper goods were strong party due to inflation. Geographically, strength was seen in the Southeastern and Western markets. Additionally, average ticket size drove the comparable store sales.

News on the high end apparel and accessory front came on Tuesday from Neiman Marcus and Coach. Neiman Marcus, the operator of Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman stores, reported fourth quarter results and Coach offered an update on its first quarter business progress. These announcements offered further proof to a thesis that we have commented on before, that the higher income consumer continues to spend, while the average consumer continues to struggle.

In the past twelve months, Coach shares have appreciated 54% as women have rushed to purchase more expensive handbags and accessories. On Tuesday, the company said that first quarter results are tracking ahead of plan and ahead of analyst estimates.

snip>

We continue to see the economy in a state of flux. The manufacturing sector has finally gotten itself out of the cellar and is exhibiting the strongest expansion in recent memory. This is happening right when consumer spending is starting to moderate. If consumers are truly starting to live within their means, it’s likely that the expansion in the manufacturing sector will not continue. On Wednesday, Ford announced it will layoff 800 workers at one of its plants due to reductions in production levels. Is this a precursor to the rest of the manufacturing sector if consumer demand continues to soften?

more...

[54anickel]

9. Consumer Borrowing Up Sharply in July, Fed Says

In a separate economic report, mortgage delinquencies increased in the second quarter.


http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ9sep09,1,3230779.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Consumers stepped up their borrowing in July by the largest amount since the beginning of the year, according to a report Wednesday from the Federal Reserve.

At the same time, U.S. mortgage delinquencies rose in the second quarter of 2004 from the first quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Assn.

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4% in July, or by $10.9 billion, from the previous month. That marked the biggest gain since January, when consumer borrowing surged at a 15.8% pace.

July's increase pushed total consumer credit outstanding to a record $2.04 trillion.

The Fed's report includes credit card debt and loans for such things as boats, cars and mobile homes. It does not include real estate loans.

more...

[UpInArms]

13. More late mortgage payments

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/09/09/BUGVS8LMDQ1.DTL

The share of Californians at least one month behind on their mortgage payments inched up in the second quarter, according to a mortgage banking group. However, the total number of properties in foreclosure declined.

Across the state, 2.19 percent of home loans were 30 days or more late in the April-to-June period on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, reported the Mortgage Bankers Association, a Washington, D.C., trade group.

While the second-quarter figure represented a decrease compared with the year-ago quarter -- when 2.9 percent of all loans were delinquent -- it rose from the first quarter, when the delinquency rate was 2.13 percent.

Nationally, 4.43 percent of homeowners had late payments, up from 4.33 percent in the first quarter.

Part of the blame lay with the economy's late spring slump, according to experts.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Moonie Times weighs in on deficit: Putting the deficit in perspective

http://washingtontimes.com/op-ed/20040908-085556-8043r.htm

Even though the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) September baseline forecast reduced its projection of the 2004 federal budget deficit by more than $50 billion, it offered little hope that substantive progress would be achieved on the fiscal front any time soon. Indeed, while the estimate of the 2004 deficit fell from the March forecast of $477 billion to $422 billion, the cumulative 10-year projection of future budget deficits (2005-2014) increased from $2 trillion in March to $2.3 trillion this week.

Setting yet another record in absolute terms, the projected 2004 deficit of $422 billion would reflect a $47 billion increase over the previous record set last year. In relative terms, however, the deficit would total 3.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). As the White House and congressional Republicans stress, 3.7 percent of GDP is significantly below the record deficit level of 6 percent of GDP that occurred in 1983. But a couple of caveats are in order. First, fiscal 1983 began at the bottom of the 1981-82 recession, the steepest downturn in post-World War II history, while fiscal 2004 began nearly two years into an economic recovery. Second, the 1983 unified budget deficit did not benefit from a countervailing off-budget Social Security surplus. By contrast, without the benefit of a $149 billion Social Security surplus this year, the 2004 deficit would total $571 billion, or 5 percent of GDP.

...more...

[54anickel]

11. Dollar Trades Near One-Week Low on U.S. Growth Outlook Concern

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=a747Kan8wufA&refer=germany

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded close to its lowest in a week against the euro amid concern an acceleration in U.S. growth in the third quarter won't be as fast as some economists previously expected.

The U.S. currency fell 0.7 percent yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told a Congressional committee that retail sales data for August ``have been mixed,'' while inflation is slowing. Economists shaved half a percentage point from their median estimate of growth in the third quarter in the past two months, according to a Bloomberg survey.

``The market had been expecting an upbeat tone from Greenspan and he gave a measured outlook, hurting dollar sentiment,'' said Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, head of currency strategy in London at UBS AG. ``Analysts are a bit more cautious on the outlook for the second half of the year.''

snip>

``Despite the rise in oil prices through mid-August, inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months,'' Greenspan told the House Budget Committee in Washington.

``Greenspan's tone sounded dovish and his economic assessment didn't go far enough'' to support the dollar, said Shimpei Uike in Tokyo, who invests in overseas debt for Asahi Life Asset Management, with the equivalent of $10.5 billion. ``The dollar may retreat in coming weeks.''

[UpInArms]

22. U.S. Treasury Notes Rise as Economists Lower Growth Estimates

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aWzniIz8nzwc&refer=us

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes rose for a second day after comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan yesterday fueled speculation the central bank may reduce the pace or size of interest rate increases.

Treasuries had their biggest gain in three weeks yesterday after Greenspan said ``innumerable areas'' of the economy are doing poorly and inflation expectations have ``eased.'' U.S. notes may also advance on expectations a $9 billion sale of 10- year securities today will garner more demand, after an auction of five-year debt on yesterday drew the most bids since June.

``Reading between the lines Greenspan is not so confident,'' about the U.S. economy said Peter Mueller, a fixed income analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. ``It is possible that the Fed will take a break hiking rates in December.''

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. The Census Bureau's New Economic Indicator (Service)

http://www.forbes.com/economy/2004/09/09/cx_dn_0909services.html

NEW YORK - The U.S. Census Bureau publishes 12 economic indicators throughout the year. Four cover manufacturing, four deal with housing and construction, two measure retail sales and two concern trade. The number of indicators currently devoted to the services industries? Zero.

For economists, "services" is an ambiguous word that encompasses everything from IT contractors certified by Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) to financial managers to the part-time baristas at Starbucks (nasdaq: SBUX - news - people ). It's a vital component of the U.S. economy, accounting for up to two-thirds of the gross domestic product by some estimates. Still, it remains a difficult sector for economists to measure. Do conventional yardsticks such as inventory and new orders apply to industries in which human interaction is the primary good?

Next week, the Census Bureau will seek to bring some clarity to the issue. The Quarterly Services Report, scheduled to debut Sept. 13, is the first government indicator to directly address the services sector. The report will measure operating revenue in three broad industries: information services; professional, scientific and technical services; and administrative and support services.

In a written statement, the Census Bureau said it chose these three segments because they are "of vital importance to all sectors of the economy," and that together they account for approximately 15% of GDP. It is targeting the report for use by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in calculating national and industry levels of production, as well as the Federal Reserve and Council of Economic Advisors in assessing current economic performance.

<snip>

The Quarterly Services Report has prompted both praise and skepticism from economists. Some see it as a belated attempt to respond to a changing economic reality. "They're trying to catch up to the fact that this is no longer a manufacturing economy," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard and Poor's. He said much of the data the report offers can be inferred from existing GDP figures. Moreover, the report's 75-day lag means the information will be somewhat dated by the time it reaches the public.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:08AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.0. Cash market should start the day with moderate gains as the futures trade holds onto most of its recent uptick... The treasury market, conversely, is relatively unchanged following the better than expected initial claims report.

8:55AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.0. The futures indications continue to work their way higher, supported by an encouraging weekly claims report and positive mid-quarter updates from NOK and TXN... Crude oil has also cooperated, stabilizing below $43/bbl... Expectations thus remain intact for a higher start to the day.

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Futures trade improves on the better than expected weekly initial claims number... Jobless claims dropped 44K to 319K (consensus of 345K) after last week's noticeable rise... As a result, the cash market is poised for a modestly higher open, boosted by NOK's raised outlook earlier.

8:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures trade pointing to a relatively flat to slightly higher open, which has been influenced by the losses seen in Europe and Asia... TXN's mid-quarter update last night has been taken as a sign that things are not getting worse in the semiconductor sector... Expect that group to show relative strength in the opening action.

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1389.41 and the 10-day moving average crossing at 1378.95. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20- day moving average crossing at 1364.75 are needed to confirm that the rebound off August's low has come to an end. If September resumes the rebound off August's low, the 50% retracement level crossing at 1415.97 is the next upside target. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 5.50 pt. at 1375.50 as of 5:50 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1113.16. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1111.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If this month's rally resumes, the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1125.67 is the next upside target. The September S&P 500 Index was down 2.80 pts. at 1095.15 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

15. IRAQI OIL FLOW AND LIMITED OPTIONS

http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/s/article/id=281

Attacks against Iraqi oil infrastructure have intensified throughout the summer and are now an almost-daily occurrence. They have occurred across the country -- from the Shiite-dominated south, to Sunni-dominated central Iraq to the Kurdish regions in the north -- and show varying levels of sophistication and planning. Tactics have also varied, from drilling holes in pipelines and setting wellheads on fire, to exploding crude improvised explosive devices (IEDs) or firing rockets at pipelines, to attacks on oil company offices and assassinations of pipeline guards.

The result has been a near-complete shutoff of reliable exports from Iraq's northern fields since the end of the active phase of the war in April 2003 and, more recently, intermittent reductions in exports from the south. These attacks have cost the Iraqi government -- which relies on oil sales for approximately 90 percent of its non-aid budget -- untold millions. They also have wreaked havoc on world oil markets, adding new levels of worry and volatility to an already fragile market psychology.

The impact, however, has not been purely psychological: After average daily exports hit a post-war high of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, that average has fallen each consecutive month since to as low as 1.34 million bpd in July, according to shipping agency data. Almost all the exports have come via the southern routes, which at current maximum capacity (rare in recent months) can handle around 1.9 million bpd. The northern export line, which carries crude northwest through Turkey to the Mediterranean, has been working infrequently. Hence, northern production hardly contributes to Iraq's post-war export figure.

While the attacks continue, Iraq's political landscape is changing rapidly, which leads to a very fundamental question: Will the number and pace of attacks change too?

To begin to answer that question, it would help to know who the attackers are, what their goals are and whether the rapidly changing events in Iraq are moving in -- or against -- their favor.

In general, the outlook for Iraqi oil exports remains bleak:

more...

[54anickel]

16. Wall Street in Dreamland

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2004/0920/292_print.html

Financial markets and the U.S. economy parted company in the late 1990s as Wall Street lost touch with economic reality. That great disconnect still exists. By the late 1990s the post-1982 bull market's length and intensity put fear to flight, leaving nothing but intense greed. Speculation rivaled that of the 1920s.

So powerful was that 18-year bull market that even the following three-year bear market, which cut the Nasdaq index by 78%, did not put the financial world back in touch with economic reality. Massive monetary ease and huge fiscal stimuli actively promoted a continued separation. The nosedive in interest rates encouraged housing and cash-out mortgage refinancing. Tax cuts and leaps in defense and homeland security spending pumped big money into the economy.

Result: Financial speculation survived largely intact but shifted from stocks to residential real estate and hedge funds. Those private partnerships, along with banks, brokers and other pools of capital, took advantage of cheap short-term money to invest in Treasurys, junk bonds, convertibles, emerging market securities, currencies and commodities.

Sure, like most services, the financial sector grows faster than the overall economy. As U.S. business expands, financial services become more widespread, more complex and a bigger share of economic activity. Still, many measures of financial services remain far afield from consistent post-WWII trends; correcting the huge 1990s speculations should have pulled them below trend, at least temporarily.

snip>

History says the two worlds will rejoin sooner or later. The great disconnect of the last decade between the speculative financial and the real economic worlds will probably persist, indeed expand, until a lot of people not only lose a lot of money but also give up all hope of being bailed out.

Don't be one of them. Don't buy a bigger house than you need, and don't buy stocks on margin. Buy Treasurys.

[KoKo]

18. hmmm...coming from Forbes Mag. a little late...No wonder Bushies are

so hard to privatize SS and everything else. ...we here have known for a long time about the "disconnect with reality."

And, there's speculation Steve "Forbes" flat tax will get another hearing if Repugs win in November.

[UpInArms]

20. Forbes is a signatory on the PNAC papers

http://www.newamericancentury.org/statementofprinciples.htm

[KoKo]

32. yes...a disgusting bunch....

blech...

[UpInArms]

17. Longaberger Co. names new president

http://www.zanesvilletimesrecorder.com/news/stories/20040909/localnews/1203551.html

NEWARK -- The day before it laid off more than 700 employees, the Longaberger Co. announced a major change in the company's leadership.

<snip>

DeFeo takes over as president at a time when flagging sales have forced the company to layoff about 3,500 workers in the past four years.

Today, the company is laying off 784 workers from its Frazeysburg and Hartville manufacturing facilities; another 116 took voluntary layoffs after the company announced in July it would layoff up to 970 workers this month.

<snip>

"My husband, Bill, and I are going to be out looking for jobs Friday. We have a 5-year- old, and we're really not sure what we're going to do," she said.

Kara Willey, an employee for almost nine years, took the early layoff on June 25. As a single parent with two children, she would do anything to get her job back with so few opportunities available right now. She hopes DeFeo can bring Longaberger Co. back to its former glory, but some things are out of his control, she said.

"What would you do with a $100? Buy a basket or groceries? It really comes down to that right now," she said. "Maybe the new president will help. I hope so."

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

21. 10:08 numbers and blather

Dow 10,307.83 -5.53 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,856.10 +5.46 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,116.92 +0.65 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.157% -0.006

10:00AM: Indices come off their highs but hold most of their gains in early, stable trading...advance-decline line starts off in good shape, but volume remains moderate...S&P is up about 4 points for the week, as it tries to post its fifth straight weekly increase...NYSE Adv/Dec 1602/895, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1542/740

9:45AM: Indices open on the plus side, in line with futures indications...Nasdaq takes the lead as Nokia's (13.70 +0.99) upbeat guidance has given tech stocks a boost...Texas Instruments (TXN 19.85 +1.02) guidance was not as upbeat, but has been favorably received nonetheless...oil is now up slightly, while bonds are marginally higher...

[Robbien]

23. Direct bids send Treasury prices higher (yesterday)

Unprecedented direct demand for an auction of five-year Treasury bonds sent prices racing higher and yields lower in New York on Wednesday.

Direct bidders, who normally account for about 1 per cent of any given auction, took almost a third of the $15bn on offer. The percentage of indirect bidders - a gauge of demand by overseas institutions such as central banks - dropped to 31 per cent from 42 per cent at the last auction.

Initially the market's traditional focus on the indirect bidders led prices to slide, but the direct bidding participation soon boosted prices. The identity of the direct bidders was unknown.

“People have had the ability to deal directly, but this is the first time they've done it in size,” said Rick Klingman, head of US Treasury trading at ABN Amro. “We don't yet know whether they'll do this consistently.”

Traditionally, buyers operate through banks, but this action bypassed Wall Street.

“This is a disintermediation. If you add direct bids to the indirect bids, then you have a high participation away from the Street,” said a trader at another bank.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a1724682-0192-11d9-8dfb-00000e2511c8.html

Very curious.

[UpInArms]

24. 11:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,283.06 -30.30 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,853.39 +2.75 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,115.10 -1.17 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.168% +0.005

10:55AM: Indices settle near unchanged in listless trade...Nasdaq outperforms as the SOX semiconductor index is up 3%, as Texas Instruments (TXN 20.14 +1.31) helps considerably...other strong sectors include restaurants and construction supplies...on the weak side are retail and autos...NYSE Adv/Dec 1618/1156, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1448/ 1076

[54anickel]

25. Helicopter Money

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc040907.htm

snip>

Since the third quarter of last year, I've continually argued that the key factor in the economy's bounce has been “helicopter money” – one time windfalls of fiscal policy that provided massive third quarter tax rebates and monetary policy that drove the refinancing boom to a peak at precisely the same time (consumers generally take cash out of their homeowners equity when they refinance). That's not to say this money has been free - we can observe the cost in the form of larger government and consumer debt loads, as well as a heavier reliance on foreign capital. In any event, as expected, that shower of disposable cash has taken a few quarters to work through the system. As a result, we've seen the explosive GDP growth of the third quarter of 2003 gradually diminish to the mild GDP growth in the most recent report.

At present, there remains one additional remnant of the government's Helicopter Money Drop (a well-trained economist has to wince at elevating these policies to the status of an “economic plan”). That remnant is a provision that allows the partial expensing (rather than depreciation) of capital expenditures made before the end of 2004. While new spending has been slow to materialize, there's still some potential for increased capital investment in the months ahead. This will probably be largely offset by a decline in housing investment, so it isn't likely to drive much net growth in GDP. On the positive side, we needn't draw the required savings from foreign investors through a further deterioration in the U.S. current account, and capital spending – if it materializes – might help tech stocks to stabilize after a harsh several months.

Of course, stocks are not a claim on a single quarter of earnings, but on a very long-term stream of cash flows that will be delivered to investors over time. Stocks simply do not reliably track short-term outcomes in the economy. That's particularly true since the short-term kick from helicopter money is not likely to translate into much sustained growth.

big snip>

In bonds, our investment position continues to recognize the potential dollar pressure from a record current account deficit, and other pressures on real interest rates. In general, precious metals shares have historically generated their strongest returns in environments of benign interest rates, generally rising inflation, modest valuation (we use a variety of approaches, but even the crude ratio of gold to the XAU index has a good record), and economic softness. Current conditions aren't perfect by these considerations, but they are increasingly aligned, and I continue to view our moderate holdings in precious metals shares as appropriate. B-)

[54anickel]

26. Global: Rebalancing or Relapse?

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040907-tue.html

An unbalanced world economy needs a new recipe for sustainable growth. A two-engine global growth dynamic has been pushed to excess. The over-extended American consumer can no longer carry the demand side of the equation. And an over-heated Chinese economy can no longer power the supply side. Nor can the world, as a whole, sustain the massive imbalances -- financial and trade -- that have arisen from this lopsided growth paradigm. But risks are building that a rebalancing may not go smoothly. As China and the US now slow, new growth engines must fill the void. Absent that important shift in the mix of global growth, the imperatives of rebalancing could well give way to a global relapse.

There can be no mistaking the disproportionate impetus that the US and China have provided to world economic growth in recent years. Over the 1996 to 2003 period, our estimates suggest that these two economies directly accounted for 49% of world GDP growth -- well in excess of their combined 33% PPP-based share in the global economy. Adding in the indirect effects due to trade linkages, and the total contribution could easily be in the 60-70% range. The US contribution shows up mainly on the aggregate demand front. Over the past eight years, growth in US personal consumption expenditures averaged 3.9% in real terms. That’s about one percentage point faster than trend growth over the prior 15 years and about 75% faster than the 2.2% gains elsewhere in the developed world. It is hardly an exaggeration to conclude that the American consumer has been the principal engine on the demand side of the global growth equation since 1995.

China has played an equally important role in driving growth on the supply side. Chinese real GDP growth averaged 8.2% over the 1996 to 2003 period -- more than three times average gains of 2.7% in the advanced nations and more than double average gains of 3.5% elsewhere in the emerging market and developing economies of the world. Yet the contribution of the Chinese producer is probably much greater than the GDP statisticians imply. Industrial output growth in China has averaged about 12% since 1995 -- fully 50% faster than gains in the official GDP growth metric. With a relatively undeveloped services sector -- less than 35% of Chinese GDP in 2003 -- and a relatively small consumption share -- 54% of Chinese GDP in 2003 -- surging industrial activity accounted for 54% of the cumulative increase in Chinese GDP since 1990. The impacts of this industrial-production-led strain of growth are global in scope. China now consumes a highly disproportionate share of worldwide demand for industrial commodities -- having accounted for 25-30% market shares in global consumption of aluminum, steel, iron, and coal in 2003. Moreover, China’s investment-led impetus resulted in a 40% surge in imports in 2003 -- underscoring its emerging role as a growth engine for externally-dependent economies such as Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Germany. At the margin, there can be little doubt of China’s increasingly dominant role in driving the global production dynamic.

Both of these engines have now shifted to lower gears. Growth in US consumer demand moderated to a 1.6% increase in 2Q04, well below the 4.2% pace of the prior four quarters and the weakest quarterly performance in over three years. Largely reflecting this moderation, the consumption share of US GDP has receded from a record high of 71% in mid-2003 down to about 70%. While this is progress, it is only very limited, at best, in restoring some sense of balance to the US economy. From 1980 through 2000, the consumption share of US GDP averaged about 67%; by reversing only one percentage point of the recent four point overshoot, the American consumer has completed only about 25% of the journey on the road to normalization. A similar result is evident for the Chinese producer: Growth in China’s industrial output slowed to 15.5% in July -- a four percentage point reduction from peak growth rates of around 19.5% earlier this year. In my view, China needs to bring its production comparisons down into the 8-10% range in order to achieve a soft landing. The recent slowing of Chinese industrial output growth has achieved about 40% of the ten percentage point deceleration that a soft landing would require.

more...

[54anickel]

27. The beginning of the scary season

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/chapmand090304.html

big snip>

The result of this is a world awash in US dollars and a US awash in debt. To those who think that the US Dollar can go up we are reminded that with so many US Dollars floating around the world supply is exceeding demand; demand is falling as countries particularly China and Japan become concerned about the huge amount of US debt they hold and signs are recently that they are pulling back a little; the commodity based countries are adjusting their prices upward (oil) as the US Dollar falls to compensate their loss of purchasing power; while the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath remains popular with a certain large segment of the US population it is generally unpopular around the world and this lessens the demand for US Dollars; numerous countries are trying or would like to diversify their reserve holdings out of US Dollars into Euros and some oil producing countries are accepting payment of for their oil in Euros rather than US Dollars - remember Iraq prior to the invasion would only accept Euros as payment for their oil; and, finally as the US Dollar falls further it feeds upon itself to get out of Dollars and into something else.

And as to the debt it today exceeds GDP by over 3 to 1 with the business and consumer community alone accounting for nearly 2/3rds of the debt. By that measure business and consumer debt is twice the size of GDP. Never in history has debt/GDP levels been at these levels even exceeding those of basket cases such as Argentina that collapsed. It is naïve then to believe that the world will continue to come to the rescue of the US to finance their debts and that the Federal Reserve can staunch what could eventually become a major collapse particularly if an event such as a major terrorist attack on US soil or an outbreak of further wars were to occur.

The current biggest threat to war right now is Iran. Here the US rhetoric is rising that Iran is building WMD through its nuclear facilities or wants to acquire WMD. As well Israel has made threats towards both Iran and Syria for the support of alleged terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. That many of the same words we are currently hearing are similar to what we heard prior to the invasion of Iraq is irrelevant. Or that support of groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah has been going on for years. But keep in mind that right now Iran is considered a rogue state (part of Dubya's "Axis of Evil") and it is surrounded right now by US military presence in both Afghanistan and Iraq. The US is committed to regime change in the region and of course Iran has oil.

Undoubtedly Iran has been supporting the Shia militants in Iraq. The fear in Iraq is that if true democracy broke out its face might be religious Iranian backed mullahs from the 60% Shia majority. Instead what we will get is some sort of sham democracy to ensure the right side wins and then a continuance and escalation of the violence that permeates the country.

Another place to keep an eye on is Russia. After going through one of the most spectacular economic collapses ever in the 1990's following the break up of the Soviet Union, the Russian bear maybe stirring in his den. Indeed the economic collapse in Russia was so deep that the population actually fell as did life expectancy. A humiliating come down. Russia is, we believe, a wounded bear. And a wounded bear is a dangerous bear.

more...

[UpInArms]

28. Crude Oil Rises on Report That U.S. Supplies Dropped Last Week

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=arG6AWm3UAK4&refer=us

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York rose for the first session in four after the Energy Department reported that U.S. supplies declined more than expected last week.

Stockpiles fell 1.4 million barrels, or 0.5 percent, to 285.7 million. Inventories were expected to drop by 1 million barrels, according to the median of forecasts by 14 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. It was the sixth decline and left supplies at the lowest since March. Refineries ran at 96.5 percent of their capacity, 1.8 percentage points higher than last year.

``This was bullish across the board,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``There was a nice increase in refinery activity when it wasn't expected.''

Crude oil for October delivery was up 88 cents, or 2.1 percent, at $43.65 a barrel at 11:09 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

<snip>

The department's weekly petroleum inventory report was released at 10:30 a.m. Washington time.

...more...

that coincided with the dip in the DOW at 10:30 EST

[UpInArms]

29. Fed adds permanent reserves by buying coupons

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6194365

NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it was adding permanent reserves to the banking system by buying coupons.

The Fed said it was buying coupons maturing Aug. 15, 2007 to Dec. 15, 2008 for delivery on Friday.

The Fed excluded all callables, all Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and the 2-3/4 percent coupon maturing Aug. 15, 2007.

Earlier, the Fed added temporary reserves to the system through overnight system repurchase agreements and 14- day system repurchase agreements.

...more...

monetarizing the debt?

[UpInArms]

30. 12:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,281.14 -32.22 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,853.12 +2.48 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,114.87 -1.40 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.138% -0.025

12:00PM: It has been another slow day in the stock market...volatility is low and so is volume...there is a trend today, however, and it is ever so slightly downward...the indices opened higher after Nokia (NOK 13.50 +0.79) raised revenue and profit estimates for this quarter...helping the positive tone was a sharp drop in new claims for unemployment, although the data might be impacted by aberrations related to the hurricanes in Florida...the market was also encouraged by a not-too-bad mid-quarter update from Texas Instruments (TXN 20.05 +1.22)...

the latter has helped boosted the highly watched SOX semiconductor index 2.5%...however, the indices started to slip every so slightly right from the open, and it has been a modest but steady downtrend since...the daily charts look poor but the overall movement has actually been very slight and the action stable...oil prices are up about 75 cents, which hasn't helped stocks...the Dow is underperforming as Coke (KO 43.19 -0.26) was downgraded by Credit Suisse and General Motors (GM 42.90 -0.31) was hurt by negative comments from Lehman...volume is very light yet again and advancers are still slightly ahead of declining issues...

[UpInArms]

31. EDS plans 200 layoffs on West Shore

http://www.pennlive.com/business/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/business/1094721793119390.xml

Electronic Data Systems is planning a work-force reduction at one of its West Shore facilities that could cost more than 200 employees their jobs.

EDS spokeswoman Liz Bonet confirmed yesterday that the Plano, Texas- based company notified state labor officials that as many as 212 employees at its call center at 4600 Westport Drive in Lower Allen Twp. could be furloughed by the end of the year.

An EDS client, whom Bonet would not identify, "intends to significantly scale back on its consumer marketing efforts," necessitating the layoffs, she said.

<snip>

The company has been having financial difficulties. Last year, it cut about 2,700 jobs systemwide and sold some assets to save hundreds of millions of dollars.

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. 1:07 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,293.08 -20.28 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,857.36 +6.72 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,116.41 +0.14 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.156% -0.007

1:00PM: Equity market improves its stance as the Nasdaq resumes its place in positive territory... The semiconductor sector erased some of its gains around the bottom of last hour in response to National Semiconductor's (NSM 12.69 +0.69) Q1 (Aug) report that included a Q2 (Oct) sales warning... The stock, however, quickly reversed course and moved to new session highs in the past 10 minutes - helping to steer the semiconductor group to previous levels... Briefing.com will be listening to National Semi's conference call, starting now, and will post periodic updates to In- Play (a Platinum Product)...SOX +2.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1696/1440, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1571/1327

12:30PM: The major indices hold steady in negative territory as the Nasdaq has just dipped below the unchanged mark for the first time this session... Selling has cropped up in biotech and internet - two well-represented groups in the Composite - and pressured the index... As for the blue chips, they are still underperforming tech in a bit of an about face from their performance this week... Brokerage, drug, airline, and retail have been heavily hit in a bit of a profit-taking move... Only energy has managed to buck the lackluster trend, thanks to the 3% rise in the price of crude oil to $44.05/bbl...NYSE Adv/Dec 1666/1419, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1607/1276

[KoKo]

34. Hurricanes Impact on FLA Economy

USA > Economy
from the September 08, 2004 edition
http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0908/p01s01-usec.html


Florida storms cutting a wide economic path
Recovery effort will buoy some industries, but many are hit hard by the hurricanes.
By Warren Richey | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
STUART, FLA. – Hurricane Frances may have almost doubled the estimated recovery cost for Florida as relief officials gear up to deal with the devastation of two hurricanes striking the same state within three weeks.


In addition to roughly $6 billion to $10 billion in insured losses from Charley, Floridians are facing an additional $5 billion to $10 billion in losses from Frances, according to AIR Worldwide. A similar forecasting firm, Risk Management Solutions of Newark, Calif., places the cost of Frances slightly lower, at $3 billion to $6 billion, in addition to $6 billion to $8 billion for insured losses from Charley.

The estimates represent only insured losses. Uncounted in the estimates is damage to roads, bridges, and other public infrastructure, along with the cost of business disruptions. They also do not include hurricane insurance deductibles, as well as flood losses, which are not covered by private insurance companies. "Generally, the total economic losses are roughly double the insured losses," Mr. Gannon says.

Although natural disasters cause a significant setback to the economy, government officials and economists say recovery efforts can also trigger an economic boom within certain industries. Debris removal and tree-trimming companies are in high demand, as are roofers and general contractors. Those who sell construction materials will be busy for years in certain parts of Florida. The ripple effect from these activities will help dampen other economic losses in the hardest-hit areas.

But the destruction and any prolonged lack of electric power may cause some struggling business to fail. While roofers and insurance adjusters (mostly arriving from out of town) are hard at work, some hurricane survivors may find themselves both homeless and unemployed.

[54anickel]

35. U.S. stocks give back early gains as oil surges (HUH?!)

Fly-by post again. Still trying to finish a paper. Have a job interview tomorrow as well. ACK, I can't manage my time as it is! Sure could use an income again though.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040909/6f0c4ffb8aeb3091bc350529dc8e22bf_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Stocks fell into the red Thursday as oil prices climbed on news of an increase in inventories, dampening enthusiasm over an improved outlook from mobile handset maker Nokia and news that initial jobless claims experienced their biggest decline in nearly three years.

Breadth remained slightly positive in the broader market, however. Advancers continued to hold the upper hand over decliners by an 8 to 7 margin on the New York Stock Exchange and 15 to 13 on the Nasdaq. Big Board volume was about 460 million shares, while about 600 million shares moved on the Nasdaq.

In the commodities market, crude futures strengthened after the Energy Department reported a drop in crude supplies. The American Petroleum Institute, however, reported a slight climb in inventories. October crude was up $1.38 to $44.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. See Futures Movers. :shrug:

[MARALE]

36. Good Luck

I always enjoy your posts and hope you get the job.

[UpInArms]

37. Closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,289.10 -24.26 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,869.65 +19.01 (+1.03%)
S&P 500 1,118.38 +2.11 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.199% +0.036

Close: Chances are that if you own stock in the telecom equipment, steel, oil, and semiconductor groups, you would characterize Thursday's trade as being a good day... Otherwise, you may look upon it as being no more than a neutral day since the bulk of the buying interest was concentrated in the aforementioned areas... The factors behind that concentration revolved largely around earnings guidance...

To that end, the telecom equipment group rallied after Nokia (NOK 13.77, +1.06) raised its Q3 outlook; the steel group advanced on the heels of Nucor (NUE 88.43, +6.13) raising its Q3 guidance; the oil stocks surged after crude futures spiked (+$1.84 to $44.61/bbl) following a weekly inventory report from the Dept. of Energy that showed a larger than expected drawdown of oil inventories; and semiconductor stocks soared in the wake of what can be called cautious sounding guidance from the likes of Texas Instruments (TXN 20.77, +1.94) and National Semiconductor (NSM 13.48, +1.48)...

That point notwithstanding, the resilience of the beaten-down semiconductor issues following that guidance precipitated a short-covering rally built on the belief that recent selling attributed to industry slowdown concerns had been overdone... Whatever the case might have been, it was clear, with the SOX Index up 5.4%, that there was great demand for the semiconductor stocks... Their leadership contributed to the Nasdaq's outperformance, which was a constant throughout the session... The broader market, meanwhile, never made much headway as weakness in the transportation, retail, and REIT shares acted as a counterweight to the pockets of leadership noted above...

ino.com closing blather

The NASDAQ Composite index closed higher on Thursday due to a rebound in computer chip stocks. Today's rebound led to a close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1854.39 and the 38% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 1863.96. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. If the NASDAQ Composite index extends its rebound off August's low, a test of the 50% retracement level crossing at 1898.91 is the next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 1819.62 would confirm that a short-term high as been posted.

The September S&P 500 index closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 1125.67. The mid- range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. If September extends the late summer rally, the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1125.67 is the next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1111.52 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted.

The Dow closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking triggered by rising energy prices. The Dow continues to consolidate below the 75% retracement level of the June- August decline crossing at 10,321. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,233, which coincides with August's uptrend line would signal an end to the late- summer rally.

Good Luck tomorrow on your interview 54anickel! :thumbsup:

[54anickel]

38. Thanks Marale and UIA, for your kind words of encouragement!

The timing couldn't be worse, but I will be thankful to have some money coming in again. I'll just have to learn to manage my time a lot better than I have been. 2 more weeks for this class, then I start with a fresh slate. Hopefully, I won't fall behind on the next one!
If I don't get a job, my schooling days will be done after the 3rd class in November. 3 classes are all I can afford out of my savings and there appears to be some snafu on my getting any financial aid or displaced worker funding (Thanks Shrub). But hey, that's the gamble I took when I signed up to start with.

I am having a great time learning and applying myself to something (other than DU) again. B-)