CNN: Bush holds slight lead in Electoral College

[eaprez]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/27/bush.electoral/index.html


CNN: Bush holds slight lead in Electoral College
Tight race in some states


NEW YORK (CNN) -- President Bush heads into the Republican National Convention next week with a small lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the all-important Electoral College, according to a new CNN analysis of state polling, advertising buys and interviews with campaign strategists and neutral analysts.

Bush would receive 274 electoral votes to Kerry's 264 if the election were held today, less than 10 weeks before November 2 and three days before the opening of the GOP convention in Madison Square Garden. If Kerry were to pick up a state as small as Nevada, the electoral vote would be tied, throwing the election into the House of Representatives.

[physioex]

1. What a load of hoooeey....

They were talking about this crap all day on CNN...

[Eloriel]

66. It most certainly is -- I heard just the OPPOSITE on MSNBC

yesterday.

[MikeG]

2. Mission Accomplished CNN.

[plcdude]

3. I think

one should point out the following website http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[bkcc]

8. How the hell is California "barely Kerry"??

What the fuck is going on out there on the left coast, people?!?

[IndianaGreen]

17. I think they meant to say "bearly" Kerry

Bears love Kerry!

[dennis4868]

32. There is no doubt that....

Kerry will win CA.....dont care what that poll now says....

[Eloriel]

67. Don't be so sure -- watch the electronic voting issue very carefully

in CA and elsewhere.

[progressivebydesign]

43. Washington? BARELY KERRY? I live here.. no way.

Even if you figure in the less populated, yet more conservative Eastern Washington, there is NO WAY Kerry is barely squeaking by here.

[shanti]

50. it's bull fucking shit!

i'm in california and there's no way in hell that cali will go for the chimp....without the fix!

[IndianaGreen]

59. What kind of voting machines are you using in California?

Or for that matter in any other state? In Indiana there is talk of switching to paper ballots because of problems we had with the touch screen voting machines during the primaries.

[shanti]

60. it depends on the county

i'm in sacramento and we used punch cards last election.

[alittlelark]

9. Interesting site.....but they show CA as 'barely Kerry'

huh? Ca is currently 10 points in Kerrys favor.:shrug:

[lancdem]

11. The most recent poll has Kerry ahead by just 3

but it had to be an outlier.

[progressiveBadger]

12. Depends on the poll you look at

The guy that does that site takes the MOST CURRENT POLL.

[Scairp]

28. Yeah, very worrisome

Could be the Ahnold factor,but who knows for sure what is going on here in the Golden State?

[chromotone]

61. Hey! Get with the program!

Kerry 10 points ahead of Bush is "barely ahead"
Bush 3 points ahead of Kerry is "a solid lead"

Didn't you get the memo???

[struggle4progress]

68. But if you look at the LAT interactive map

available from the poll data page http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage.htmlstory
and assume their most recent poll numbers are correct, then assigning each undecided state to the current poll leader DOES give Bush an electoral college win:

WA up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Kerry
OR up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Kerry
NV up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Bush
AZ up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Bush
CO up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Bush
NM up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Kerry
HI up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Kerry
MN up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Kerry
IA up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Kerry
MO up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Bush
AR - no recent poll listed
WI up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Bush
MI up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Kerry
OH up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Bush
KY up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Bush
TN - no recent poll listed
PA up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Bush
WV up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Kerry
NC up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Bush
FL up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Bush
ME up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Kerry
NH up for grabs - latest poll on site tips Kerry
DE - no recent poll listed

Over-confidence between now and election day would be a big mistake.

[still_one]

4. opposite of what all other polls say including fox

[Rockholm]

5. And FOX holds a slight lead over CNN....

Shut up CNN..You are no longer relevent.

[Birthmark]

6. CNN: Bush holds slight lead in our newsroom.

"If the election were held today, and our bosses were the Electoral College, Bush would win by a small margin. We got nuttin' else."

[lancdem]

7. This is probably about right

considering what Kerry has been through the past several weeks. Actually, I'm not sure CNN has ever said Kerry was ahead in EVs, so for them this means no change.

It's funny, but Kerry's pollster, Mark Mellman, said Kerry is in front in states with 320 EVs. I'd love to believe it, but I have to think that's optimistic.

Another way to look at this is to say we're resuming where the 2000 election ended, with Bush having the red states and Kerry the blue ones. And because of the census, the red states got more EVs, so Bush's lead starts out bit bigger.

[RummyTheDummy]

30. Thank God not everyone is whistling past the graveyard

This has been a HORRIBLE week for Kerry. Period. End of story. Next week will be equally bad.

I now believe Bush is ahead in both the national polls and state polls. Not even near the panic button yet. But it sure felt good to know we were ahead for so long.

Time to buck up and get tough. Long road ahead of us getting this thing back on track. It WILL be done though.

[AndyTiedye]

52. Next Week Will be Much Worse -- It's the Rethuglican Convention/Lovefest

...and the media will spend the whole week telling us why we have to voted for Booosh.

We knew August was going to be really grim. It was even worse than we thought.

[Gregorian]

10. Orwell was a bright man.

CNN, please apologize to Kurt Vonnegut, Gore Vidal, all of the people at DU, and many many more.
Shame on you!

[newscaster]

13. these are the key words.....

"according to a new CNN analysis of state polling, advertising buys and interviews with campaign strategists and neutral analysts."

Notice, this is not a poll of people...this is analysis and analysis can be so far5 off track as to be in another county.


BTW, Zogby says Kerry has more than enough electoral votes.

[daleo]

14. To make fraud plausible

There will be dozens of such analyses in the next two months. Honestly, if Bush wins I think it has to be fraud. I don't know what I would do if I was American (I live in Canada). At what point do you quit going along with lies and fraud? A very difficult situation may be developing. I hope not.

[karlrschneider]

15. DING DING! You got it my latitudinally challenged friend...

:D

The have to keep the impression that it's a "dead heat" in play so diddling the touch screen machines won't be (so) obvious.

(I hope you didn't take offense, I love Canada and the Canucks...been up yonder at least 50 times.) :-)

[daleo]

21. No offense taken n/t

n/t

[pmbryant]

16. The only differerence between their map and the 2000 map is NH

They give NH to Kerry, otherwise it's the exact same result as 2000.

Highly implausible, given how many states last time were decided by <5% points and the vastly different circumstances of this election.

It will be close, but the odds that it will break down so similar to 2000 are extremely small.

--Peter

[tom_paine]

18. Compliant "News" Network? CIA "News" Network?

Whatever they are they are about as beievable as a 1978 Soviet Isvestia broadcast.

[mad_hatter]

19. A little liberty in play here

I think CNN has taken the liberty of awarding close states to GB. I do believe that Kerry has lost momentum here lately. I think he took too long to respond to the swift boat adds, and then made a couple of inexplicably dumb comments regarding the war in Iraq.

The man has my vote, but I think he is losing ground. It's still early though and I hope he's saving his ace for the crucial moment.

[a kennedy]

39. I've wanted to say this for a couple of days.......

when JK was in Minnesota, I heard part of his "town hall" message, and I'm not kidding, I heard him say, "oh sure, I believe in the Faith Based Initiative". Now what the HELL is that???? Faith Based Initiative???? Am I the only one who thinks that JK is using the same lame language as * does???, I hated that saying. I was on the Minnesota DU thread, and not a word was uttered about this statement. I can't go into details of who asked him about it, or how it came up, I just heard him say it, and I thought, oh my gawd, he's even sounding like *!!! and the whole business about Iraq, would JK still vote the way he voted now knowing what we all know, and JK said that yes, he would have??? I'm getting so nervous, I'm just sick. I'm one of the week kneed, pessimists that come here to DU to get my spirits lifted, my determination raised my thoughts made positive, but d*mn.......may-be I should take a break, may-be I should visit my friend's daughter's compound in Mexico that I'm planning on moving to that if by chance the election will be stolen or somehow compromised. Do I need that mental health screening that * was talking about??? I just want this election to be over, I want to be back on the track and in my America that Bobby Kennedy spoke of, that Martin Luther King dreamed about, that Jimmy Carter so naively thought about, I just want to relax, to breath easier, to keep my pension, to have my family members and friends have a living wage, a good life, a long life and peace. Just peace, peace in my soul, peace in my heart, peace in my neighborhood, peace in my world. I need a nap.

[gbarford]

20. Isn't it good that CNN was whipped by MSNBC in primetime...

..on Thursday night. They deserve it.

[jdj]

24. yes. and more power to them. With Tweety's good personality

coming out more, and Keith Olbermans' double-yellow-line show, they may gain even more.

[NoBorders]

22. Funny - it wasn't a headline when Kerry held a lead

I know that I've seen several web sites and articles when Kerry had an EV lead (not that there's much to these at this point). But it wasn't the lead story anyhere.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

23. How can "ad buys" and other non polling data figure into their EV figures?

:shrug:

[al bupp]

51. I Was Wondering When Some Wag Would Mention That!

CNN, for obvious propaganda, I award thee a :spank:

[stevedeshazer]

25. Unrealistically generous for Shrub

Nevada? No way. Ohio? That's debatable. Florida? Who the hell knows. Wisconsin? I doubt it.

Thanks, CNN, "the most trusted name in news". It's clear they're humping Shrub.

[a kennedy]

40. About Wisconsin.....

I have not seen a lot of Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers. I did see a "if a worker votes republician...." (can't remember the rest of it), but it was a slam on *, and one that said "anyone but *". I'm in La Crosse, and was in Madison last Friday, and I was very surprised that I didn't see more K/E stickers or yard signs. *sigh* I'm hoping it's still early. I mean, the Packers are only having their 3rd pre-season game, and the Badger haven't even started yet. :)

[bringbackfdr]

26. Ah, our astute media

Question to CNN: Why is it that I had to find out via the BBC on National Public Radio that the number of people in the United States officially living in poverty has reached an all-time high?

[Sperk]

27. I don't mean to be rude, but....THEY'RE GOING TO STEAL IT!!!

My only hope is that the people suspect that it was stolen.....then watch out Smirky....the HELL with Congress....the PEOPLE will toss you out! I really believe that. We will have Congress shaking in their trees before it's all over.

It's the only proper fate for Idiot Boy anyway.

[volosong]

29. You're Not Rude, You're Right

Actually, the way Kerry is doing, they won't have to steal it this time.

[Sperk]

31. see, even we DUers who are on to the media, fall for the bullsh*t

Papa Bush LOST because of the economy, it's worse under his idiot son, not to mention all the other (dozens of reasons) why Smirky is hated - yes by many republicans too! He doesn't even have all of the Republican votes. If we had a FAIR and HONEST election it would go 60-40 for Kerry. EVERYONE I KNOW, knows someone who voted for Smirky and is not voting for him this time....and we hear at DU have heard many, many stories like this...please do not fall for the media's bullsh*t polls. IF it was even....Idiot boy would not have to BUS IN people to listen to him and Kerry would not be getting 40-50,000 people at a time to his rallies.

I'm sorry, I will NEVER believe * won honestly, if that's what I am told.

[goclark]

64. Yes they will steal it

Why is Kerry held to a higher standard than Bush!

We watch his clown face everyday making all kinds of "miscalculations" and it just doesn't stick.

Why??? Because the FIX is IN!!!! The Press,the Media, the Voting Machines are all bought and paid for...

The only way that we can win is to go nasty!!

I am sick as hell that the smear candidate can win again,it is not right!

[Carolina]

33. FUCK CNN

(Sorry Mods, please don't send me to the woodshed for the double no-no of caps and profanity in the subject line, but CNN is rotten to the core and brings out the worst of my ranting and raving).

CNN will do anything for *; it has literally sponsored this pre-convention bump for his idiocy. Imagine its take on the polls after the propaganda fest ends on Thursday which can't come soon enough).

CNN is lower than snake shit and protesters should be outside both the Atlanta offices and NY studios with blood red, anti-CNN signs.

[scarface2004]

44. yeah fuck you cnn

you are so full of shit!

[proud2BlibKansan]

34. http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Check out these numbers.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

:bounce:

[RummyTheDummy]

35. Yeah two weeks ago Kerry was ahead by 100 electoral votes

If not more. It still amazes me people think this Swift Boat shit isn't working.

[KittyWampus]

49. What's Even More Amazing Are People Who Listen To This Garbage.

This isn't based on polls.

This is someone's anallysis. BIG FUCKING DEAL.

[flordehinojos]

36. they are just preparing the public to make the second coup d'etat appear

like bush's power grab was an honest electoral victory !

[happynewyear]

37. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA.

SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIASCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA. SCREW THE POLLS and SCREW THE MEDIA.

CHEERS! :toast: :toast: :toast:

[AlFrankenFan]

38. Um HELLO! (link included)

http://www.electoral-vote.com

'Nuff said.

[RummyTheDummy]

41. He was ahead by more than 100 votes less than a week ago

I visit that website every day, so I'm right. How do you explain the sudden tumble?

[AlFrankenFan]

57. Simple: RNC

It's like bad disease. I think once the debates start Kerry's numbers will jump faster than the Republicans plumeting off the proverbial cliff.

[progressivebydesign]

42. I'm sorry.. but who the hell is SURVEY USA?

I don't believe that Kerry is 30 POINTS BEHIND Bush in Nebraska. No way. The majority of people there aren't that stupid. The numbers that show Bush ahead are mostly from SURVEY USA. What is that, anyway?

[Z-E-R-0]

45. This Is Bullsh!t

[Generator]

46. If this sentence doesn't make you want to spit a load of hooey out

"CNN analysis of state polling, advertising buys and interviews with campaign strategists and neutral analysts."


Then you aren't paying attention.

Neutral analysts, huh huh, CNN analysis huh huh, and campaign strategists huh huh.

Smear boat is not enough to change that many points, though I must say if you watched CNN exclusively, you must be Pro-Bush by now. Nothing has changed to put Bush ahead, and honestly, most people are not giving a crap about smear boat. Even I am sick to death of it.
That's my analysis.

[al bupp]

53. I Nearly Lost a Mouthful of Good Microbrew

A Fnord, if I ever saw one.

[Zero Gravitas]

47. CNN = Fox Lite

When CNN isn't full of fluffy shit like Larry king they're trying to be Fox Lite. The Swift Boat Bullshit has taken its toll to be sure, and most analysis has the race closer now than before Bush started that surrogate smear campaign, but where was CNN when Kerry had a nice lead in the EV? the campaign was "statistically tied" and was "too close to call". Now, according CNN, it is still "statistically tied" but Bush* has a slight lead. Whores.

Given that it is so obvious that Bush is behind the Swift Boat Liars, I still hope that he will soon experience some significant "blowback" once that connection peculates down to the average voter.

In any case we need to redouble our efforts, keep on giving as much time and money as we can and keep fighting the fascist un-American scum.

[AngryOldDem]

48. I Can't Believe Ohio...

...is in the red column. No way. And what...the electoral college is just a 10-point difference?

[kwolf68]

54. So they call

Arizona, Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee all for Bush. I do think in time Arkansas and Tennessee will go Bush, but right now the polls are even.

[BeatleBoot]

55. OK, Assume Its True.......What Do We Do Now?

WORK HARDER!!!!!!!

Behind or not, I am fighting until the end.

[number6]

56. blackop propaganda

what buuuullllll ....

CNN (CIA) analysis (analcyst)

[farmboxer]

58. Zogby Has Kerry Ahead 324 to 214

Zogby's new electoral vote count shows Kerry leading 324 to 214, an even larger lead than the most recent Electoral Vote Predictor

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0823print.html

I think Zogby is correct.

CNN is a cheerleader for Bush. Look what they did to help cover up for the coup in 2000! I can't stand to watch their propaganda!

[gauguin57]

62. Actually, this story may serve to keep us working hard ...

... if we think, like Carville says, that it's going to be a "landslide," we may let our guard down. We just have to redouble our efforts to get Kerry elected, that's all.

[renegade000]

63. bull...

eom

[LyleNews]

65. CNN Poll? Gimme a break!

CNN and Bill Schneider are hand in hand with the American Enterprise Institute.


<a href=http://www.aei.org/scholars/scholarID.53/scholar.asp><img src=>


William Schneider
Resident Fellow



<img src=>




Schneider researches politics, the presidency, and public opinion. He is a senior political analyst for CNN and a contributing editor to the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and The Los Angeles Times.
Professional Experience
Fred and Rita Richman Visiting Professor, Brandeis University, 2002
Senior political analyst, CNN, 1991-present
Contributing editor, Atlantic Monthly, 1988-present
Contributing editor, National Journal, 1987-present
Contributing editor, The Los Angeles Times, 1982-present
Thomas P. O'Neill, Jr. Visiting Professor of American Politics, Boston College, 1990-1995
International affairs fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, 1979-1980
Senior research fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 1977-1979
Associate professor of government, Harvard University, 1972-1979

Education
Ph.D., political science, Harvard University
B.A., Brandeis University

[illiteratepresident]

69. http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Kierkegaard]

70. I think this is what is called

WISHFUL THINKING!