STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 27 August

[ozymandius]

Friday August 27, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 146
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 67
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 259 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 313 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 526
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1009
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 26, 2004

Dow... 10,173.41 -8.33 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq... 1,852.92 -7.80 (-0.42%)
S&P 500... 1,105.09 +0.13 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.23% -0.03 (-0.80%)
Gold future... 409.60 -0.60 (-0.15%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ClintonTyree]

1. What numbers.................

are cooming out this morning? Is it consumer confidence and GDP? It's hard to keep up with everything with all of these Olympic games on. I'll be glad when they're over so I can get a life again! :-)

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.33 Change +0.03 (+0.03%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH48598_2004-08-27_11-49-46_L27549803

FOREX-Dollar indecisive ahead of US data, Greenspan

LONDON, Aug 27 (Reuters) - The dollar erased earlier losses to stand steady near recent three-week highs against the euro on Friday as investors became reluctant to take big bets ahead of U.S. data and a speech by Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan.

Analysts expect a downward revision in second-quarter U.S. growth data and a further fall in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. However, the market expects Greenspan to stick to his optimistic view of the economy when he speaks at 1400 GMT given upbeat comments by Fed officials this week.

"There is a diminished appetite for risk and there is no urgency to take the market outside the edge of the summer range. Data won't be fantastic while Greenspan is likely to be upbeat," said Steven Pearson, chief currency strategist at HBOS Treasury Services.

"(The Fed) wants to convey confidence and say some of the factors suppressing growth are transitory."

<snip>

GDP data at 1230 GMT is expected to show the U.S. economy grew at an annualised 2.8 percent in the second quarter. That would be less than the advance estimate of 3.0 percent and well below heady growth of 4.5 percent seen in the first quarter.

The final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 1345 GMT is also expected to show the index falling to 94.0 in August from 96.7 in July.

...more...

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38226.354525463-818818414&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

U.S. Q2 GDP revised to 2.8% as expected

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. economy slowed in the second quarter, growing at a 2.8 percent annual rate after a growth spurt in the previous four quarters, the Commerce Department reported Friday. A month ago, the government estimated annual growth of 3 percent for real gross domestic product. Economists were expecting a revision to about 2.8 percent. The big picture view was largely unchanged by the revisions. The trade deficit was a larger drag than previously assumed, but consumer spending, business investment and inventory building were all stronger. As in the earlier estimate, the revisions showed consumer spending slowed while investments surged. The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose at a 1.7 percent annual rate.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38226.3545833333-818818418&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

U.S. Q2 after-tax corporate profits fall $11.3 billion

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Growth in U.S. corporate profits slowed in the second quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Before tax profits increased $1.6 billion from the first quarter to $1.167 trillion annualized, compared with a $36.5 billion increase from the fourth quarter to the first. After-tax profits fell $11.3 billion sequentially and were up 17.9 percent year-over-year, compared with year-over-year growth of 32.1 percent in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial industries incresaed $28.7 billion in the second quarter, while financial industry profits fell $3.6 billion. Profits from the rest of the world declined $23.5 billion

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

3. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Futures market continues to tick higher ever so slightly, now suggesting a somewhat higher start for the cash market... A better than expected Q2 GDP revision and a well-received mid-quarter update from NVLS have pulled the futures higher.

8:31AM: S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Futures trade improves some on the slightly better than expected revision to Q2 GDP... Although the figure was revised lower (to 2.8% from 3.0%), it was still ahead of the consensus estimate of 2.7%... As a result, the indices are set for a relatively flat open.

8:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Futures indications pointing to a slightly lower open following what has been a week of gains in the cash market... The sharp fall in the price of crude oil has largely facilitated this... The pre- market should have more direction at 8:30 ET, when preliminary Q2 GDP is released... The consensus estimate calls for a decline to 2.7%.

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 1388.75. If this resistance level is cleared, the 50% retracement level crossing at 1415.43 is the next upside target. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought hinting that a short-term might be in or is near. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 1.50 pt. at 1384.50 as of 6:36 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1093. If this month's rally continues, the 50% retracement level of the June- August decline crossing at 1103.05 is the next upside target. However, stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1095.36 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The September S&P 500 Index was down 0.10 pts. at 1104.50 as of 6:38 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

4. Reliant to write off $75M plant foreclosure

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38226.3879976852-818821852&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Reliant Energy (RRI) said Friday that lenders for its financing subsidiary Liberty Electric PA would foreclose on Liberty's 530-megwatt, natural gas-fired plant. Houston-based Reliant acquired the Pennsylvania plant in February 2002 when it purchased Orion Power Holdings, but in July 2003 a PG&E subsidiary that had agreed to take power from the plant declared bankruptcy. Reliant said it would write off the $75 million book value of the plant, which had defaulted under a $262 million financing agreement. Shares of Reliant closed Thursday trading up 10 cents to $9.72.

[UpInArms]

5. KPMG reveals U.S. critiques of itself

(gack - my source is the Moonie Times!)

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040827-074837-8374r.htm

Washington, DC, Aug. 27 (UPI) -- One of the biggest U.S. accounting firms has disclosed voluntarily a possible violation of conflict-of- interest rules.

KPMG, one of the four largest U.S. accounting firms, said the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, in its first annual report, found the firm had accepted fees from independent-audit clients based on how much money it helped them save in taxes, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

That kind of contingency fee arrangement is a potential conflict of interest.

<snip>

Under SEC rules, auditors are barred from entering such fee arrangements with audit clients out of concern they create mutual financial interests.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. The looming specter of more layoffs, product cuts, engulf Agere

http://www.pennlive.com/news/allentowntimes/index.ssf?/base/news-1/1093598444128610.xml

The Lehigh County-based semiconductor manufacturer declined to give specifics on Aug. 20, but it could announce plans as early as next month to cut employment corporate-wide. Agere has 6,600 employees worldwide, about one-third of whom work in the area.

Agere spokesman Steven Goldsmith said the company is reviewing its fiscal 2005 plan plus its product portfolio "to see what businesses are strongest for us.

"As a result, there will likely be some sort of headcount reduction," Goldsmith added, "but none of those plans have been made, and there have been no specific decisions at this point."

The company is seeking to cut costs following Agere's announcement last month that its revenue would drop significantly in its current fiscal quarter.

<snip>

The local work force number of 2,200 employees, many of whom work at Agere headquarters off Route 22 in Hanover Township, has stayed fairly steady since September, when the company completed much of its restructuring.

Two years ago this month, the company announced it was closing manufacturing at its Lehigh Valley plants and selling its fiber-optic components business.

...more...

[54anickel]

7. U.S. Economy Grew at a 2.8% Annual Rate in Second Quarter

snip>

``The question is whether the soft patch is being transferred into the third quarter,'' said Bill Natcher, an economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland, before the report. ``Oil is still in a range where it could act as a drag on the economy, but I think this is still more of a short-term phenomenon. Businesses are flush with cash and inventories are low, so the fundamentals are still in place for investment.''

Corporate profits after taxes for the quarter, reported for the first time today, rose 17.9 percent in the 12 months ended in June. Business investment in equipment and software was revised up in the April-June quarter to the strongest pace since the third quarter of last year.

snip>

Election

The slowdown in the economy has done little to boost John Kerry's chances of winning the presidential election in November, the latest polls show. A Los Angeles Times poll, conducted Saturday through Tuesday, gave President George W. Bush a three- point lead over Kerry, a Democratic Senator from Massachusetts. An Aug. 24-25 Fox News poll showed Kerry leads Bush by 1 percentage point. :wow:

The GDP price deflator used to adjust the growth figures rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate after a 2.7 percent rise in the first quarter.

Excluding energy and food, a measure of inflation tied to consumer spending slowed. The core personal consumption expenditures index, watched by Federal Reserve policy makers, rose 1.7 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter after a 1.8 percent rise initially reported and a 2.1 percent pace in the first three months of the year.

Guynn

The measure is within the central bankers' forecast of 1.5 percent to 2 percent for the year. In the third quarter of last year, the core index rose at a 0.9 percent annual rate.

Because some consumer price increases are ``beginning to stick,'' policy makers should keep raising their benchmark interest rate at a ``measured pace,'' Jack Guynn, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said this week in a speech. Guynn said he was surprised at how much the rising energy and commodity costs have seeped into consumer prices. Policy makers next meet on Sept. 21 after raising the overnight bank lending rate a quarter point in each of the prior two meetings.

[UpInArms]

8. 9:46 markets are open (and everybody's happy!)

Dow 10,179.16 +5.75 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,857.39 +4.47 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,105.30 +0.21 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.213% -0.014

09:40 ET Stock market gets off to a higher start, aided by a well- received mid-quarter update from chip maker Novellus (NVLS) and a better than expected revision to Q2 GDP... The figure was revised lower, to 2.8%, but came in ahead of the consensus estimate of 3.0%... The market is showing gains in most industry groups (tech, energy, drug) in the early action, but losses in a few influential sectors (brokerage, transportation) could limit the extent of the advance... Investors will get their final economic report of the day at 9:45 ET with August Michigan Consumer Sentiment... The reading is expected to remain unchanged, at 94.0... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/ Dec /.

09:09 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +0.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. A slightly positive bias continues to hold in the futures trade, which should translate into a higher open for the indices... The market will get its final economic report of the day at 9:45 ET... The market expects 94.0 for the revision to August Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

[UpInArms]

9. UMich Sentiment Report in

9:47am 08/27/04

U.S. AUG. UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 95.9 VS. 96.7

U.S. UMich Aug. consumer sentiment falls to 95.9

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38226.4096064815-818824023&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. consumer sentiment slipped in August, according to research from the University of Michigan, media sources said Friday. The UMich consumer sentiment index fell to 95.9 in late August from 96.7 in July and 94.0 in early August. Economists were expecting the index to slip to 93.8.

(edited to add newsblurb)

[54anickel]

10. Global: The Great American Savings Grab

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040827-fri.html#anchor0

Never before has the world’s leading economy been saddled with such a severe shortfall of saving. Ironically, America has not had to pay a price for its extraordinary profligacy -- at least not yet. The US has borrowed freely from abroad and converted asset-based saving into newfound purchasing power. In my view, this cannot continue. There’s nothing sustainable about the growth dynamic of an increasingly saving-short US economy.

The numbers speak for themselves. Driven by a veritable collapse in personal saving, in conjunction with a dramatic deterioration in the federal government’s budget position, America’s gross national saving rate -- the combined saving of households, businesses, and the government sector -- fell to an all-time low of 12.8% of GNP in early 2003. Nor has it recovered much since, rebounding to only 13.8% in early 2004. Stripping out the depreciation of worn-out capital in order to get a cleaner read on the domestic saving available to fund net growth in productive capacity, America’s net national saving rate plunged to a record low of just 0.4% in early 2003. While there has since been a modest rebound to 2.0% in early 2004, there can be no mistaking the sharp break from historical trends; by comparison, the US net national saving rate averaged 5.3% in the 1980s and 1990s and 9.6% in the 1960s and 1970s.

In a world where saving must always equal investment, America’s saving shortfall has profound implications. Lacking in domestic saving, the US had had to import surplus saving from abroad in order to keep its economy growing. And the only way it can attract such capital inflows from abroad is to run massive current account and trade deficits. Consequently, it is no coincidence that America’s current account deficit hit 5.1% of GDP in early 2004 -- it’s a direct outgrowth of a severe shortfall of domestic saving. Nor is this a trivial consideration for the rest of the world. By our reckoning, America’s $531 billion current account deficit in 2003 absorbed a record 79% of the world’s total surplus saving -- well in excess of the 68% global saving absorption over the 1985-87 period, when the US last had a current account funding problem. (Note: Surplus saving is defined, in this instance, as the sum of current-account surpluses around the world plus the aggregate discrepancy between global surpluses and deficits.) America’s outsize claim on the rest of the world’s pool of surplus saving has, in effect, become the sustenance of the global economy’s US-centric growth dynamic.

The key issue for the economy and financial markets is sustainability -- namely, whether a saving-short growth dynamic can persist indefinitely. The argument against that conclusion is a classic “current account adjustment” -- a scenario that typically involves a weaker dollar, an increase in real interest rates, a suppression of the interest-rate-sensitive components of domestic demand, and a concomitant rebuilding of domestic saving. Current account adjustments typically occur when external deficits exceed 5% of a country’s GDP, precisely the threshold that the US has now hit. The counter argument is more of a “flow-of-funds” story -- whereby foreign investors continue to buy dollar-denominated assets irrespective of the magnitude of external imbalances. Whether the flows are driven by perceptions of superior returns on US securities, by currency targeting of foreign officials (especially Asians), or by some combination of both, it really doesn’t matter as long as the flows hold up. For the time being, the flows certainly have the upper hand. That could always change, but it would undoubtedly take some type of a shock to reverse the powerful momentum of foreign demand for dollar-based assets; at the top of my list of possible shocks are an outbreak of protectionism or a US recession (see my 23 August dispatch, “The Funding of America”).

more...

[54anickel]

11. Japan’s issuance hits new record

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/af410058-f799-11d8-afe6-00000e2511c8.html

Japanese government bond issuance is likely to hit a record next year as the country struggles with a fiscal deficit that has created the worst public finances in the industrialised world.

The ministry of finance said on Thursday it expected to sell Y143,000bn of JGBs in the 12 months to March 2006, up from Y121,100bn in the current fiscal year. The plan points to a 14th consecutive year of rising debt issuance and underlines the difficulty of strengthening Japan's fiscal position even as the economy enjoys its strongest post-bubble upturn.

Japan's ratio of total debt to gross domestic product is likely to be 163 per cent at the end of this year, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the highest figure among OECD states. :hurts: (closest smiley to a "holy sh*t")

Soaring JGB issuance has forced the ministry of finance into a flurry of initiatives to ensure it can raise all the debt it needs. A primary dealer system to be introduced in November will give selected brokers privileged information in exchange for guarantees that they buy a set proportion of bonds at regular auctions.

more...

[cal04]

12. consumer sentiment falls to 95.9

U.S. UMich Aug.
By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. consumer sentiment slipped in August, according to research from the University of Michigan, media sources said Friday. The UMich consumer sentiment index fell to 95.9 in late August from 96.7 in July and 94.0 in early August. Economists were expecting the index to slip to 93.8.

[54anickel]

13. Japan's Household Spending Falls; Unemployment Rises

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=af_75D6elkOE&refer=asia

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese households unexpectedly cut spending in July and unemployment rose, adding to signs a recovery is faltering in the world's second-largest economy.

Spending by households headed by a salaried worker fell for a third month, dropping 2.5 percent from June, seasonally adjusted, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo. The jobless rate rose to 4.9 percent from 4.6 percent, the first increase since January.

``These numbers are very disappointing,'' said Kirby Daley, a strategist at Societe Generale Securities' Fimat division in Tokyo. ``There are increasing signs that the turnaround in the domestic economy is slower in coming than expected.''

Consumer spending, which accounts for almost three-fifths of the economy, is declining as wages slide and companies replace full-time workers with part-timers. Falling domestic demand may hold back an economy that grew at a 1.7 percent annual pace in the second quarter, half the rate economists had forecast.

snip>

Prices Fall

``Deflationary pressure is persistent in Japan,'' he said. ``Consumer prices will continue to fall at a moderate pace.''

Companies are hiring more part-time and temporary workers to save costs, keeping down wages, which have risen in just three months of the past three years. Part-time and temporary workers often receive fewer benefits and most don't receive bonuses.

more....

[54anickel]

14. Greenspan Warns on Baby Boomer Benefits

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040827/greenspan_2.html

JACKSON, Wyo. (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Friday that the country will face "abrupt and painful" choices if Congress does not move quickly to trim the Social Security and Medicare benefits that have been promised to the baby boom generation.

Returning to a politically explosive issue that he has addressed a number of times this year, Greenspan said that it was wrong for the government to hold out the promise of more retirement benefits than it is capable of providing.

He said this issue was particularly critical given the impending retirement of 77 million baby boomers born in the two decades after World War II.

"As a nation, we owe it to our retirees to promise only the benefits that can be delivered," Greenspan said in opening remarks to a two-day conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City on the challenges posed by aging populations.

more...

[54anickel]

15. Day of Reckoning Ahead for California, New Jersey

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_mysak&sid=ay2JD1INhsjM

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Two things happened this week that might lead you to conclude that California and New Jersey were on two different escalators, one going up, the other down.

Think again.

California's credit rating was raised three levels by Standard & Poor's on Tuesday, to A from BBB.

New Jersey, meanwhile, is looking at a $4.4 billion hole in its budget for next year, far larger than had been expected, according to a memo written by David J. Rosen, the legislature's budget and finance officer, and first reported upon this week.

California's on the way up, New Jersey (now rated AA- by Standard & Poor's) down, then, right?

Not so fast. Both of these states have a lot of work to do on their future budgets, as a close reading of the S&P upgrade and the New Jersey memo shows. They're really both heading in the same direction.

If you're from California or New Jersey, this isn't happy reading. It's not too cheery or reassuring if you hold the bonds of these states, either.

big snip>

....A wise man once said, You're not going to grow your way out of a deficit. Someone should tell California and New Jersey.

How's bout tellin' Shrub and Greenspin!

[54anickel]

16. Healthcare Costs Expected to Rise (What else is new?)

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-health27aug27,1,2361557.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Employers are facing continued double-digit increases in healthcare costs in 2005 and probably will require their workers to pay a greater share of the bill, according to a survey of more than 900 firms.

The survey, released Thursday by Mercer Human Resource Consulting, found that employers expected healthcare costs to rise 12.9% on average next year if they left benefits unchanged. But companies that participated in the survey, both those that buy insurance and firms that are self-insured, are budgeting an average increase of only 9.6% in their healthcare spending.

The firms are likely to shift much of the difference to employees in the form of higher required contributions and co-payments, or by limiting their choice of insurance plans, the report said.

That would mark the third consecutive year that employers have shifted a portion of healthcare costs to workers in an effort to keep pace with rapidly rising expenses.


Remember when they all pooh-poohed Clinton's warning of a pending healthcare crisis?

[UpInArms]

17. Oil Rebounds After Iraq Pipeline Attack

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6088835

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday as a sabotage attack on Iraqi oil infrastructure reignited concern about the reliability of crude exports from the country despite a peace deal to end an uprising in Najaf.

U.S. crude climbed 37 cents to $43.47 a barrel, but remained around $6 below a record peak struck last Friday at $49.40 after a week of heavy losses. London's Brent crude gained 37 cents to $40.70 a barrel.

Prices have fallen 12 percent from last week's peak as speculators took profits after the U.S. market failed to breach the $50 mark. Crude is still up nearly 40 percent since the turn of the year.

Iraq halted exports via Turkey from its northern oil fields on Friday, having filled storage tanks to close to capacity, industry sources said.

But in southern Iraq, saboteurs attacked two pipelines linking a main oil field to export storage tanks, an Iraqi oil official said.

...more...

[54anickel]

18. Median home price up 9.1%

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2004-08-27-homeprices_x.htm

snip>

Nationally, the median home price was $183,800 in the second quarter, up 9.1% from a year earlier, according to the NAR. The association's survey of 128 metropolitan regions found a record 49 metro areas with double-digit annual increases. Tight housing supplies created a sellers' market in many parts of the country, the NAR said.

Orange County has a limited supply of land for new construction, which has driven up prices on existing homes, says Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. In addition, Southern California's economy is growing faster than Northern California's, she says.

A limited supply of homes also helped the median home price in Las Vegas jump 52.4% to $269,900, the fastest growth in the nation. Las Vegas had a 1.7-month supply of homes on the market, vs. an average 4.2-month supply for the nation.

Home buyers could find some relief soon. The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new home sales fell a sharper-than-expected 6.4% in July from June. And on Tuesday, the NAR reported that existing home sales fell 2.9% in July.

more...

[54anickel]

19. Skilled workers needed Demographic shift means more boomers retiring

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2761942

The United States faces a shortage of 35 million workers over the next three decades, especially those with specialized skills, according to a report by the Employment Policy Foundation, a business-funded research organization.

With the retirement of workers born during the baby boom after World War II, the U.S. economy must boost the productivity of its workers or admit more immigrants to cope with the expected shortfall, said the group, which represents companies such as General Motors, Pfizer and Boeing.

"We have a mismatch between available jobs and the people who don't have the skills to fill those jobs," Edward Potter, the foundation's president, said at a news conference Thursday in Washington to release an annual survey of the U.S. workplace.

snip to the hint, hint>

The Labor Department on Sept. 3 is expected to report a 160,000 increase in August employment, according to the median of forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. That compares with an average of 55,000 new jobs in June and July and 225,400 the first five months of the year.

more...

[54anickel]

20. Auditors get poor grade

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/26/news/fortune500/auditors.reut/index.htm

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The nation's four biggest accounting firms didn't get very good grades for auditing their clients last year, regulators said in their first review of the industry.

The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, the regulatory body for the U.S. audit industry, said the Big Four accounting firms missed several audit and accounting issues while they audited their clients' 2003 accounts.

The board made the statement as it unveiled findings of its first-ever inspection of the audit industry. The board inspected the way auditors at PricewaterhouseCoopers, KPMG, Ernst & Young and Deloitte & Touche audited clients.

bit more...

[54anickel]

21. Calif. pharmacies sue drugmakers

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/27/news/fortune500/drugmakers_lawsuit.dj/index.htm

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Nineteen California pharmacies filed a state lawsuit Thursday accusing the world's largest pharmaceutical companies of conspiring to inflate U.S. drug prices.

The pharmacies accuse the 15 drug makers of illegally conspiring to charge inflated prices in the U.S. while barring pharmacies from buying the makers' drugs at lower prices outside the country.

"We are being charged higher prices than foreigners are being charged," said Joseph Alioto, representing the pharmacies. "If we are selling the same drug we want to pay the same prices as everyone else."

The lawsuit, filed in Alameda County court in Oakland, alleges the pharmaceutical companies have hurt the pharmacies' bottom lines by violating California's antitrust and unfair business practices laws.

more...

[54anickel]

22. Managers Move Some Funds to Europe, Asia

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=5&u=/nm/20040827/bs_nm/financial_fund_poll_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. fund managers seem inclined not to make any big shifts in allocations among the major asset classes, but a new Reuters poll shows money moving into Europe outside of the Eurozone and into non-Japan Asia.

"It's the valuations," said Donald Gimbel, senior managing director at Carret & Co. LLC in New York.

"Even though the multiples in the U.S. have come down, and there are some interesting stocks, the fact remains that whether it's Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia or China, the valuations appear to be more compelling and the growth prospects as good or better than the U.S."

snip>

Among the regions, the allocation to Asia outside of Japan rose to 8.2 percent in August from 7.4 percent a month ago. The shift of assets to Europe outside of the Eurozone rose to 14.9 percent from 9.3 percent.

The North American allocation fell to 45.8 percent from 53.1 percent and the Eurozone allocation slipped to 16.9 percent from 17.1 percent. The Japan allocation was 9.2 percent, a small decline from 9.3 percent in July.

more...

[54anickel]

23. Today's WrapUp by Martin Goldberg 08.26.2004

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm

There has been a lot of discussion in the media suggesting that voters will “vote their portfolios” in the November presidential election. The election is on the lips of a bevy of analysts interviewed on the business cable TV and radio channels. Accordingly, I have assembled some key data to see if there actually may be a portfolio-favoring candidate or political party. The table below seems to suggest that if history dating back to the 1960’s is considered, contrary to the TV experts, there doesn’t seem to be one political party that is particularly better for stocks. Since 1960 there were 5 democratic presidential terms, three that were “good” for stocks and two terms that were “bad” for stocks. In the same time frame there were 6 republican presidential terms, 2 that were good for stocks, and 4 that were bad for stocks. Examine the table and form your own opinion as to whether there is a candidate or party that is “good for stocks."

snip>

Note that in the 56 years when there was a Republican in the presidency, the stock market gained 354 percent whereas in the 48 years when there was a Democrat in the Oval office, the stock market gained 692 percent. Based on the data presented above, it is totally appropriate to view with a healthy dose of skepticism (if not disbelief), the parade of stock market experts on business cable TV suggesting there is a specific party or candidate that is “good” for stocks. In my view, the data does not support such a case. Again, examine the data above, and form your own opinion.

snip>

Nasdaq Rally Lacks Conviction in its “Long White Candlesticks”

Once again, when it appeared ready to cave in, the Nasdaq staged a rally that was impressive in terms of magnitude and unimpressive in volume. As of last night, the Nasdaq rallied 6.6% in just 9 trading days, yet it has had a total of zero (0) days where the volume of shares traded has even approached an average days’ trading volume. This suggests even less conviction than the last suckers rally!

more...

[UpInArms]

24. Jaguar Cars Cuts Production

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2004/08/27/ap1521352.html

Jaguar Cars said Friday it is cutting production at its three British plants because of poor sales of its luxury cars in the United States, the company's biggest market.

The Ford-owned company will drop 15,000 cars from the production line from now to the end of the year - a cutback of 11 percent.

Jaguar said there would be no job losses among its 8,000 staff, but production will be scrapped on Fridays.

It said the weakness of the U.S. dollar and intense competition had hurt sales in the United States, which accounts for about half of Jaguar's sales.

...more...

[54anickel]

26. Dang, and I was gonna get me one of them.

I suppose the Hummer craze with the tax incentive did 'em in. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

25. The Soft Patch (990N, Repos, and cheese!)

snip>

According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS, aka Global Statists) June release for 2003, the Total Gross amount stood at $293 trillion. Shortly thereafter the July release stated as of March 31st, 2004 the figure has risen to, get this $403 trillion. That's is $110 trillion Federal Reserve Notes (non-dollars) in 91 calendar days or 37.5%. It's now August 26, 2004 by way of a little extrapolation I've arrived at, sweet ginger brown can this be correct?!?!? $554 trillion at the close of JUNE.

Now I know these "Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction" will need to square up in September at which time, the projected Gross Value of Leveraged Speculative Excess will have approached HOLY __! UN____ believable! $671 TRILLION ______!

Good Lord, the Twin Towers of Derivatives have given birth to quintuplets.

snip>

I noticed the Federal Reserve's Temporary Open Market Operations were quite large once again. We do, after all, have the Grand Old Party assembling in New York for their pre-November cheerleading festivities. Amerkia must look as shapely as Vicky's Secret Trim Spa Blonde.

Today's TOMOs are exorbitant:

Cheese Platter #1

Delivery date: Thursday, August 26, 2004
Maturity date: Friday, August 27, 2004
Type of operation: O/N RP
Operation close time: 09:45 AM
Total Money Value of Operation (in $bil.) = $11

Cheese Platter #2

Delivery date: Thursday, August 26, 2004
Maturity date: Thursday, September 09, 2004
Type of operation: 14-day RP
Operation close time: 08:35 AM
Total Money Value of Operation (in $bil.) = $8

snip>

I often wonder what percentage of this could end up on the tip of 990N's (remember 990N?) robotic fingers. It certainly does not require that much given the lack of volume in the E-Mini Futures pit. 3500 contract here, 5000 there bid, offer, offer, bid flip flop pork chop. It's comical to me at this point many individuals still find this "impossible," "absurd" and the imaginative machinations of some "Lunatic Gold Bug," that one 990N even exists.

more...

[54anickel]

27. Whoop, added another 11 billion to that repo total this morning!

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

[54anickel]

28. US Seen Headed for Smallest Farm Surplus Since '72

http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=6082717

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Slipping exports and rising imports of agricultural products in the coming fiscal year will give the United States its smallest farm trade surplus since 1972, according to government projections issued on Thursday.

U.S. farmers will export $57.5 billion worth of agricultural products in fiscal 2005, down $4.5 billion from the record expected for the current fiscal year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.

High oil prices, increased foreign competition, and bigger world wheat and cotton crops next year will hurt American farm exports, the USDA said in its first look at fiscal 2005 exports.

The new fiscal year will begin on Oct. 1. Exports are an essential component of U.S. agriculture, accounting for about 25 cents of every dollar in American farm receipts.

Exports of U.S. grain and feed were estimated at $16.1 billion in 2005, down $1.7 billion from this year.

On the other side of the farm trade equation, the USDA projected the United States would import a record $55 billion worth of agricultural products in 2005. This would trim the nation's farm trade surplus to $2.5 billion, its lowest level since 1972.

more...

[54anickel]

29. Is the So-Called Recovery a Hoax?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/texashedge/texashedge082704.html

During recessions (commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP), employment, industrial production, trade sales, and personal income have all historically tended to slow down considerably. Businesses and consumers would be forced to clean up their balance sheets by becoming "leaner and meaner," which would of course set the stage for the next expansion.

The US economy has suffered ten recessions since the end of World War II, the last of which officially began and ended during 2001. It was over three years ago when the dotcom burst and NASDAQ decline made headlines on a daily basis. Layoffs began to hit internet startups (remember the pink slip parties), followed by telecom companies' cutbacks, and then finally job losses spread to the rest of the economy. For the first time in a decade, increasing amounts of college students were graduating without a job, thereby spurring record amounts of applications to law and business schools.

While the stock market continued to decline, a so-called economic "bottom" was reached shortly after the 9-11 tragedy struck. At that time, the Federal Reserve began to print money like mad, flooding the system with liquidity through a series of dramatic interest rate cuts and money supply growth. Ignoring the need for households, governments and businesses to clean up their balance sheets, Greenspan lowered interest rates immediately in order to stimulate the economy. Lower short-term rates brought down mortgage rates, increasing home sales to record levels. That not only stimulated more home building but also increased sales of furniture, appliances, and other consumer durables. Lower monthly payments on mortgages and credit cards gave people the ability to spend money they didn't have on things they didn't need such as new cars, luxurious vacations, designer clothing, and fancy meals. Dallas Fed President, Robert McTeer shockingly urged an already over-levered American consumer to spend, saying "Go out and buy something" and ''if we all join hands together and buy a new SUV, everything will be okay."

In addition to monetary stimulus, Congress passed a series of tax cuts in order to keep consumer spending on the rise. This extra spending money went directly into the cash registers of stores such as Home Depot, JC Penny and Sears. Retailers started to give discounts to consumers who would spend their tax refunds in their store and gave special discounts to those who would open up a store credit card account. Consumers began to spend at an extraordinary rate that exceeded their income - and the attack on saving continues today.

This orgy of spending finally began to show up in the bottom lines of American companies starting in late 2002. As the stock market ended its decline, cheerleader media pundits began to talk about a "jobless" recovery. Normally, such silly talk would end quickly as an increasing amount of unemployed consumers would not be able to spend money they didn't have, slowing the recovery. But as a result of this new "easy credit" environment, people kept on spending regardless of their resources. Instead of perusing the help wanted ads, unemployed homeowners refinanced, cashed out, and took trips to Las Vegas in their newly purchased gas guzzling SUVs.

more...

[54anickel]

30. Kiss Your Rights Goodbye (off topic link from 321gold again)

http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0434/indiana.php

It will never be said of George W. Bush that he left office with any less intelligence, grace, and dignity than he came in with. Intimidation of black voters in Florida has already begun, with surprise visits to the newly registered by Jeb Bush's state police, "investigating voter fraud"—an ingeniously ironic whopper, of the stripe that's endeared the Bush family to generations of Saudi princes, defense contractors, and homicidal dictators.

Iraq is a catastrophe, bloodier by the hour. Our Afghan proxy controls a full 10 yards of sovereign territory around his office in Kabul. The only successful war Bush has waged from the comfort of his ranch thus far has been an unremitting attack on the U.S. Constitution. The First, Fourth, Sixth, and Eighth Amendments in the Bill of Rights have already sustained serious injury.

The usual method of redressing constitutional grievances is through the court system. But well in advance of the fait accompli, Bush's fans in Congress derailed most of President Clinton's judicial nominations, a practice the media overlooked in its frenzy to document a cum stain artfully preserved by Monica Lewinsky and Linda Tripp. No member of the Senate was more fanatical in excluding qualified people from the federal bench than our current attorney general, John Ashcroft. The vacancies imposed by Ashcroft and other Senate evangelicals have now been filled by right-wing ideologues, who dominate seven of 13 federal appellate districts.

It's a small, telling measure of G.W. Bush's contempt for the electorate that after Missouri voters chose to elect a deceased candidate rather than give Ashcroft another term, Bush promptly installed him as the country's chief law enforcement officer. When sworn in, Ashcroft was, appropriately, anointed with oil by Justice Clarence Thomas.

Ashcroft is, not to mince words, a lunatic. This would have been universally recognized at almost any other moment in American history. In the looking-glass world of "the war on terror," however, Ashcroft's religious manias haven't excited even mild censure from anyone in government. By all reports, Ashcroft runs the Department of Justice like a Pentecostal revival meeting, enjoining his staff to raise their voices in righteous hymns of his own composition.

more...

[54anickel]

31. Now It's Official: Economy Shrunk

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6090513

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy slowed more sharply in the second quarter than first thought as oil prices rose and the trade gap swelled, the government said on Friday in a report that confirmed momentum faltered in the spring.

U.S. gross domestic product -- which measures total output within the nation's borders -- expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter to $10.8 trillion, down from the 3.0 percent pace estimated last month by the Commerce Department.

The downward revision marked a sharp slowdown from the first quarter's 4.5 percent expansion, but was widely expected by Wall Street and markets had little reaction.

"Rapidly fading fiscal stimulus, a collapse in mortgage refinancing and sharply higher energy costs reduced households' purchasing power," said Steven Wood, an economist at Insight Economics.

While there are signs the economy picked up strength in the summer, analysts said growth is unlikely to bounce back quickly enough in the third quarter to spur job creation.

"Overall economic growth should accelerate but will likely remain below the 4 percent pace needed to reduce unemployment," Wood said.

more...

[UpInArms]

35. another interesting tidbit

from your link:

The Commerce Department said the downgrade to the GDP estimate was due to an upward revision to imports -- which detract from growth -- and a downward revision to exports.

The change had been widely anticipated by analysts after a dramatic deterioration of the U.S. trade position in June. The trade gap blew out to a record $55.8 billion in the month, far higher than had been assumed in the first estimate of second-quarter GDP.

Upward revision to imports ...

Uh oh.

[54anickel]

36. And they are predicting record ag imports for 2005 in the earlier post.

We don't make as much of our own stuff, we don't grow as much of our own stuff. Just :wtf: do we do?


I really am heading out now! (DU is sooooo addicting) :hi:

[Doctor Smith]

39. The economy didn't shrink.

The rate of growth shrank.

[54anickel]

32. 11:43 update

Dow 10,193.90 +20.49 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,864.13 +11.21 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,107.51 +2.42 (+0.22%)
10-yr Bond 4.209% -0.018
30-yr Bond 5.005% -0.016
NYSE Volume 329,997,000
Nasdaq Volume 415,556,000


11:30AM: The market continues to creep higher as technology extends its lead... Other groups have demonstrated relative strength (like biotech, health care, and oil service) and helped the indices' in their quest higher... Oil service has been assisted by the slight gains in the price of crude oil, now to $43.16/bbl... Although this is off its highs, it ends a 5-day losing streak for the commodity... More geopolitical worries, such as the attacks on Iraq's oil pipelines, have renewed supply concerns... Elsewhere, the bond market is barely unchanged for the session - showing slight gains as of now...NYSE Adv/Dec 1902/1082, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1735/1026

11:00AM: Indices continue to sport modest gains in what has been a quiet morning session... Breadth figures remain supportive and mildly positive, but do not boast the bias needed to launch the market higher... Technology remains one of the best groups of the session, thanks to a strong semiconductor group... The area has enjoyed healthy buying interest following Novellus's (NVLS 25.33 +0.68) mid-quarter update...

Although the chip equipment maker did not raise Q3 (Sept) guidance - in some instances, management indicated that the low-point of its prior forecasts was more appropriate - it did boast a positive tone throughout the call, which helped put to rest concerns about an industry slowdown... As a reminder, Banc of America came out with a bearish call yesterday - stressing that point - and sent the semiconductor shares lower...SOX +1.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 1806/1140, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1570/1080

10:30AM: Equities continue to tack on gains in a slow and laborious way...In the past hour, the Dow has climbed a sum total of 13 points as buyers remain a bit hesitant in light of oil gains and Greenspan's testimony at a Jackson Hole conference... So far, the Fed Chairman has not addressed any monetary issues during his talk, although these points could be raised during the Q&A period... Volume is slated to be extremely light today - ahead of the weekend and during a week in which 2 days have come in as the lightest of the year...

With that in mind, trading is apt to be choppy, with no true trend emerging...NYSE Adv/Dec 1845/970, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1580/983

10:00AM : Major indices get a boost from the upward revision to Michigan Consumer Sentiment... The August reading was revised to 95.9 from 94.0 (consensus of 94.0) and is now approximately one point below July's figure... Since January's high, the index has dropped 8% as both the expectations and current conditions components have declined... The huge spike in the price of crude oil has no doubt played a part in the tempering of consumer expectations...

Today, the commodity has risen to $43.37/bbl on (1) reports there were traces of explosives in the Russian planes that crashed on Wednesday and (2) attacks on oil pipelines in Iraq... Crude oil has also traded lower for the past 5 days, hitting a new 4-week low... NYSE Adv/Dec 1403/1147, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1196/1052

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1869 (58%) 1683 (56%)
Declines 1142 (35%) 1105 (37%)
Unchanged 206 (6%) 174 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 175 (59%) 267 (69%)
Down Vol* 112 (37%) 112 (29%)
Unch. Vol* 8 (2%) 4 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 65 21
New Lo's 9 25

[54anickel]

33. 12:46 numbers and I gotta run again (talk about low volume!)

Dow 10,189.33 +15.92 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,861.33 +8.41 (+0.45%)
S&P 500 1,107.17 +2.08 (+0.19%)
10-yr Bond 4.198% -0.029
30-yr Bond 4.998% -0.023
NYSE Volume 422,366,000
Nasdaq Volume 533,160,000

12:30PM: Little change in the past half hour, as it has been for the past two hours... In fact, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have traded within a range of 20, 5, and 2 points entirely... Relatively mixed sector movement, not overly bullish market internals, and a lack of volume have contributed to the lack of activity... Today is actually tracking as the weakest volume day of the year - marking the third time this week this has happened...
Traders remain on vacation in mass (ahead of the 3-day, Labor Day weekend next weekend) or simply on edge ahead of the Republican National Convention next week and the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks... NYSE Adv/Dec 1916/1173, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1641/1225

12:00PM: Stock market has inched its way higher to a morning of modest gains, thanks to a strong tech sector... The group has come back today after a session of losses - brought on by a bearish Banc of America call on the semiconductor group... The area has received some good news in the form of Novellus's (NVLS 25.37 +0.72) mid-quarter update last night... Although the guidance given on the call was not too inspiring (EPS was indicated at $0.02 below the consensus estimate), the tone of the call was upbeat and helped dispel worries about a cyclical peak...

As a result, semiconductor has been one of the strongest groups and positioned the Nasdaq ahead of the blue chip averages (on a relative basis)... The blue chip groups have also performed well, with retail, health care, and telecom also moving higher... Economic data have also been supportive of the indices' uptick, with August Michigan Consumer Sentiment revised higher to 95.9 (consensus of 94.0) and Q2 GDP coming in better than expected (2.8% versus the consensus of 2.7%)...Volume, however, has been extremely light and not unlike yesterday's session - when it was the lightest of the year...NYSE Adv/Dec 1938/1109, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1695/1125

11:30AM : The market continues to creep higher as technology extends its lead... Other groups have demonstrated relative strength (like biotech, health care, and oil service) and helped the indices in their quest higher... Oil service has been assisted by the slight gains in the price of crude oil, now to $43.16/bbl... Although this is off its highs, it ends a 5-day losing streak for the commodity... More geopolitical worries, such as the attacks on Iraq's oil pipelines, have renewed supply concerns... Elsewhere, the bond market is barely unchanged for the session - showing slight gains as of now...NYSE Adv/Dec 1902/1082, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1735/1026

If I don't make it back for close, have a great weekend. :hi:

[UpInArms]

34. Investment Firms Lied About Stocks to Investors - Paying $100 Million Fine

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A36995-2004Aug26.html

NEW YORK, Aug. 26 -- Wall Street passed a significant milestone on Thursday, as two investment banks agreed to pay a combined $100 million to settle charges that they published overly bullish research reports on questionable companies to win their investment banking business.

<snip>

Under the agreement announced Thursday, Deutsche Bank will pay $87.5 million, including a $7.5 million fine for failing to promptly produce e- mails requested by regulators. Thomas Weisel Partners, a smaller San Francisco-based investment bank, will pay $12.5 million.

Of the $100 million, $30 million will be set aside to return to harmed investors, $30 million will go to state securities regulators, and the rest will be used to pay for investor education programs and the distribution of independent third- party research to investors.

<snip>

The Wall Street research probe began in earnest in the spring of 2002 after New York Attorney General Eliot L. Spitzer disclosed internal e-mails from Merrill Lynch & Co. in which analysts at the firm privately derided stocks they were publicly recommending, referring to the stocks as "junk" and "crap," among other things.

...more...

[trogdor]

37. kick

It was coming off the front page. Must be a quiet day.

[UpInArms]

38. 2:08 numbers and blather (paint drying)

Dow 10,194.94 +21.53 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,863.09 +10.17 (+0.55%)
S&P 500 1,108.06 +2.97 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.213% -0.014

2:00PM: The slight march higher comes to a halt as the major indices tread water around their best levels... Tech continues to underpin the market today, and as 16% of the S&P 500, provide a good deal of direction... Semiconductor, diskdrive, computer hardware, and software have been the standout groups of the session, pacing the Nasdaq's 0.5% gain... Software has done well in the news of Oracle's (ORCL 10.29 +0.06) extension of its offer for PeopleSoft (PSFT 17.48 +0.23) for about the 10th time... This bid has dropped from $9.4 bln in June 2003 to $7.7 bln today...NYSE Adv/Dec 2015/1154, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1686/1242

1:25PM: Major indices stage what is the equivalent of a rally in this session - given that the indices have barely budged a point at a time... In the past hour, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have moved higher by 14, 3, and nearly 2 points as the major indices demonstrated some resilience earlier... Despite weak conviction on the part of buyers, the indices never relinquished their positive stance and move into negative territory... The Nasdaq itself has taken out yesterday's high (1861) and is now approaching the 1864/1867 area, which marks the 38% retrace off the June high...

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is coming up on its 200-day simple moving average at 1111...NYSE Adv/Dec 1953/1180, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1690/1214

dollar happy happy joy joy

Last trade 89.73 Change +0.43 (+0.48%)

very quiet for a Friday, Why.

[UpInArms]

40. 3:22 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,203.34 +29.93 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,864.05 +11.13 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,108.95 +3.86 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.227% +0.000

2:30PM: The market extends its reach into positive territory a little further, hitting gains of 0.3-0.6% in a cautious move higher... That has been the name of the game today as investors have been reluctant to scoop up stocks... Most investors have been trading small positions as a number of overhangs (oil, economic growth, terrorism) still remain on the market... Nonetheless, the indices are poised to close higher for their second week of gains... Buyers eventually re- emerged after seeing the market sitting at its lows for 2004, and engaged in moderate bargain-hunting activity...

Volume must pick up, though, before one can make any assumptions as to whether this rally can continue...NYSE Adv/Dec 2047/1158, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1716/ 1251

[radfringe]

41. enjoy the new 'toon....

if 'toon doesn't show up --> http://radicalfringe.freeservers.com/
top of the page




more 'toon here --> http://radicalfringe.freeservers.com/photo.html

comments appreciated

[54anickel]

42. Capture of the closing numbers

Dow 10,195.01 +21.60 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,862.09 +9.17 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,107.77 +2.68 (+0.24%)
10-yr Bond 4.227% N/A
30-yr Bond 5.018% -0.003
NYSE Volume 875,558,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,017,795,000

Close Dow +21.60 at 10195.01, S&P +2.68 at 1107.77, Nasdaq +9.17 at 1862.09: The stock market started with slim gains and ended with slim gains - not deviating much over the course of the session as conviction remained weak... Most major players were on vacation ahead of the Labor Day weekend period as volume came in at its lightest levels of the year... Breadth figures barely favored advancers and spoke to the number of overhangs (crude oil, terrorism worries associated with the Republican National Convention) that continue to spook the market... Still, the indices managed a higher close today, which capped a second consecutive week of gains...
Today's move was largely inspired by two economic reports that came in ahead of expectations... Q2 GDP was revised slightly lower to 2.8% (but ahead of the consensus estimate of 2.7%) and the August Michigan Consumer Sentiment was revised higher to 95.9 from 94.0 (consensus of 94.0)... Novellus (NVLS 25.18 +0.53) also gave a Q3 (Sept) mid-quarter update that was perceived to be upbeat, even though the chip equipment maker reduced targets on a number of metrics (shipments for instance)... Semiconductor was thus one of the strongest groups of the day, and found company is most of the major tech sectors...

Biotech, basic material, and energy (off a slight move higher in the price of crude oil, to $44.18/bbl) also demonstrated relative strength throughout the session... Airline was the only real laggard of the day, and that was due to a Merrill Lynch downgrade of Mesa Air Group (MESA 6.56 -0.43) and Republic Airways (RJET 13.33 -0.38) off the implications of a possible US Airways (UAIR 1.85 +0.01) bankruptcy filing...SOX +0.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 2193/1070, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1929/1134

[54anickel]

43. Economy More Sluggish Than First Thought (Silly Snow quote)

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040827/economy_11.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Weighed down by high energy prices, the economy was even more sluggish than initially believed during the second quarter. But Federal Reserve policy-makers believe the pace will pick up in coming months, something President Bush is counting on as the election approaches.

snip>

The president says making his tax cuts permanent will strengthen the economy and spur more job growth. Kerry, pointing to the sluggish labor market and the loss of 1.1 million jobs since Bush took office, says Bush's tax cuts have helped mainly the wealthy and squeezed the middle class.

Kerry's campaign issued a statement saying the GDP report provides evidence that "George Bush is misleading Americans when he says that the economy has turned a corner."

Treasury Secretary John Snow, meanwhile, said, "Our economy is once again on solid footing." But he added, "There is still more work to do."