US Warplanes Violate Iran's Airspace

[spooked]

I wonder what we're up to now...

http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_3464.shtml

US warplanes violate Iran's air space
Aug 24, 2004, 19:11

Five US warplanes entered Iran's air space last Thursday night from the southwestern Shalamcheh border and flew over the city of Khorramshahr for a while, press reports said Tuesday.

According the Persian daily Seday-e Edalat, 'the jet fighters which flew at high speed and altitude, then headed to the Arvand River'.

"They flew at a height of 10 kilometers and maneuvered over Khorramshahr for a while," the paper said.

"While the objective behind the fighters' violation of the Iranian air space is not known yet, some military specialists believe such moves are aimed at assessing the sensitivity of the Islamic Republic's anti-aircraft defense system," it added.

[Poiuyt]

1. Here it comes

Invading Iran is the October surprise.

[allemand]

25. Invasion - no. Bombing of "nucular" sites - highly probable.

Wag the Dog !

[RivetJoint]

40. If that was the case,

we would not have used 5 fighters the Iranians could have seen for thie "practice run."

[kestrel91316]

2. Yep, they are testing defenses........................

get ready for WWIII. When Bush attacks/invades Iran the world will turn on us and start attacking US soil. He will then lose the election and leave a MESS for Kerry to clean up. What a bastard.

[2Design]

3. the new cambodia....

[hang a left]

4. This was last Thursday.

Didn't Iran threaten Israel yesterday, again. This must be why we are hearing all the strong language recently.

[Gyre]

5. Correction

Iran said they would defend themselves if they had to. I've read your screeds before liberalnproud. Admit it, you're a zionist aren't you?

Gyre

[hang a left]

7. Yes you are right. They have been bantering back and forth.

You were joking about the zionist thingy, weren't you?

[Gyre]

12. Of course. Sheesh!

:) Gyre

[Rangefinder]

31. I heard a report (maybe BBC) last weekend

that Sharon had informed that if the US didn't hit the nuke facility, they would. Sounds like they might have Georgie just where they want him.

[daleo]

6. Testing air defenses, preparatory to an attack on nuclear reactors

Or at least a feint in that direction, to keep everyone guessing. Looking on the map, from the locations mentioned in the story, it would appear to be about the same route the Israelis would use to get to Tehran. There are several nuclear development sites in that vicinity, although there are other sites as well.

Assuming the story is true, which I don't really doubt.

[fearnobush]

9. Bush needs a good N'ca'ler anti terror war before November.

[Kool Kitty]

13. Your theory sounds about as good as any

of the others. Can't this administration learn to clean up one mess before it starts another?

[kestrel91316]

15. Ummmmmm..................................no. n/t

[Sterling]

102. That was Hitlers problem too.

Ad yet another glaring similarity.

[zorbasd]

18. BINGO!! daleo

That is the October surprise! It won't be a military invasion, but a devastating aerial(fighters and cruise missiles)attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. I think the Pentagon knows that Iran just cannot defend or respond to such an attack despite their recent saber rattling.
The BushCo media will just have a huge 24/7 hard-on with this successful strike, falling prostrate toward the glorious leader King George. The Bushevics will try to test and challenge Kerry as to whether he supports the attack against a terrorist nation. Kerry would have to be supportive of such an attack, or be exposed as a wimpy pacifist or sensitive. Very clever!!

Remember Reagan's Grenada and Mondale's no-I-mean-yes-support.

[Strelnikov_]

83. The Hard On Will Fade Though, As They All Do,

when Iran partially shuts down gulf shipping with their ASM threat, oil hits $150/bbl.+, and the magnitude of our military blunder and leadership ineptitude become apparent.

[Tight_rope]

104. YES...you are so right...For ever "ACTION" there is a "RE-ACTION"!

Bush may get his usually "MINUTE" fuck and have his "QUICK EJACULATION", which will give birth to a whole new group of enemies. As though we don't have enough. Will he ever learn.:spank:

I don't believe that Boy King will ever learn that he can't control the world and definitely not "MAN KIND".

[Cooley Hurd]

30. Perhaps they were hoping to get shot at (or shot down)?

I'm reminded of the scene in the movie "Thirteen Days" in which the JCS sent two recon aircraft (F-8 Crusaders, I believe) to Cuba for low altitude passes over the missle sites, hoping to draw enemy fire and therefore give the JCS enough reason to invide Cuba, against President Kennedy's wishes...

[jmcgowanjm]

64. Yes,alg0912.Just saw Fog ofWar/13Days/&JFK films together

What jumps out is Curtis Lemay's actions. And McNamara's
self deception.

My respect for JFK rose considerably.

He was killed by the people who are running the USGov't
today. The DOD did 911. And they're getting ready
to do more.

http://amigaphil.planetinternet.be/cgi-bin/show.cgi?Pentagon091117b

A 757 did not hit this wall.

[Radius]

78. With all due respect..

The dod did not, "do" 9/11, the uss cole, the african embassies and promote a redical islamic war against the us. The DOD did go on tape and brag about all of the above.

What hit the wall and killed people?

You are driving up alcoa stock..

[mahina]

88. Well I'll give you this much

I do think the people who assasinated JFK are *'s backers.

[Ghetto_Boy]

98. You are absolutely correct. That reactor IS going to be hit.

Israel or US, maybe Israelis flying B117, but it will be hit.

[Dover]

8. U.S. and Israel are doing their damnedest to provoke Iran into striking

first.

[aquart]

11. Yeah, no question, Israel is an equal partner

Just as big, just as strong, just as rich....yeah, that's the ticket.

You should be ashamed.

[Heath.Hunnicutt]

19. Israel had 300+ combat aircraft in 2001, is the major force of region

Israel is the major air force of the region:

http://www.defencejournal.com/2001/october/equation.htm

[tinnypriv]

20. According to the IDF

Israel has the most advanced air forces in NATO, apart from the US.

Common press headlines in Israel are "the most powerful in the Middle East".

[Zhade]

22. Israel's been threatening to hit Iran for a while now.

You should be ashamed yourself, for putting words another poster never said in their mouth.

[leesa]

48. 200+ nukes in Israel pointed at their neighbors for years??

Iran tries to have nuclear power for electricity and Israel demands bombing. Israel may not be as big but they are as sick as Dubya's band of thugs.

[Gyre]

14. Not a bad theory

I hope you're wrong but an overflight like that IS an invitation to lock on with fire control radars, which can lead to a lot of dead people in a short period of time. And Bush and Sharon have proven themselves to be angry nuts w/ alot of firepower.

Think about it in reverse. What do you think the U.S. would do if a Taliban combat a/c formation (yeah like that's possible) overflew Washington for awhile and then meandered away? Clearly, it's either a provocation or a recon mission to map out radar installations for a future strike. Either way it's pretty ominous.

Gyre

[Algomas]

17. These people are insane but crafty...

I think big oil is worried about their free lunch being threatened. Profit uber alles is their creed and they have the entire executive branch of the USA in their pockets. They are looking at world resource extraction peaking and want to control it with an iron fist. In conjunction with the Military Industrial Comp. they intend to strike now before the third world actors in this drama have a chance to organize any meaningful resistance.
I would not be surprised at all to see a nuclear October surprise.
It is interesting to see what is going on in Asia as regards our ongoing massive naval exercise. Could this be a threat to China not to f*ck with us when it comes to global resource dominance?
Is it possible that the "terrorist" plane crash in Russia today is also a ploy to keep the Russians too busy with their Chechnya problem to put up a fight over oil?

Of course the logic here is upside down. Buh$co's greed driven policies will guarantee generations of simmering guerrilla warfare that will take the lives of possibly millions, including many of our grandchildren.

Tragically, I do not think Kerry will make much of a difference. I see him as a kinder, gentler Bu$h. He will be the spoonful of sugar that makes the poison go down a little easier.

If we had genuine citizen control of our government, we would be researching alternative energy supplies. In the long run it would be better for our national security and the health of the planet but that kind of thinking is too long term for the profit now mentality of global capitalism.

I think we are Cheneyed.

The L.I.A.R.s (Loony, Ignorant, Arrogant Republicans) have been unleashed. We fight them at great peril. They are like mad dogs.

[ze_dscherman]

21. Russia may be busy with a war against Georgia

See this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x774919

And Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili was installed with quite some bit of U.S. aid in the coup that outed Shevardnadze (sp.?).

[lottie244]

32. I guess that's why we sent those 32 F-16's to Israel last year.

We had about 32 Israeli airmen in the US training at a base here and they flew back about that many F-16's.

[Tight_rope]

43. Yes...they are...and I'm sick of it...

[aquart]

10. Does George figure if he starts World War III

We'll have to keep him?

[kestrel91316]

16. Well, now that you bring that up.....................

he would probably declare martial law due to the national emergency that would ensue, and "postpone" elections 'til hell freezes over.

[Habibi]

23. Well, color me stupid

but I really don't understand why the Bushies would think this is a good idea. The Iraq occupation is getting increasingly unpopular, our troops are stretched awfully thin already--how does he figure he would get domestic support for any kind of attack against Iran?

[dbt]

28. It ain't about "support" and never has been, I fear.

Everything, everything the Regime does is done with an eye toward putting more money into fewer hands--and public opinion be damned. How much MORE do, say, Halliburton and GE stand to make if "we" start some of that war shit with Iran?

:freak:
dbt

[Guaranteed]

56. He's on his way out, anyway.

He may as well start some last-minute shit that we won't be able to back out of so his buddies can make more money.

[sofa king]

24. Khorramshahr is a border city.

It's right on the river opposite that little sliver of Iraqi territory which connects with the Persian Gulf. It's actually south of the Iraqi port city of Basrah, where there is a major airport.

It's possible that a flight out of Iraqi territory simply got a little bit out of the flight profile. That no doubt will be the official explanation--if there ever is one, which I doubt.

It's also possible that it was a probe. Remember that if Israel is going to try some crazy Osirlek attack this time they're going to have to do it with overt American support, because they will have to overfly U.S. controlled Iraqi airspace. We might have been doing Israel a favor. But that seems rather far fetched.

A little more likely perhaps, it could have been protection or distraction for something else going on near the border. If a group of insurgents has been playing hide and seek along the border and we decide to insert a stick of D-boys by helicopter or air drop into Iranian territory to put them to bed, it might not be a bad idea to have some fighter-bombers in the area to distract the radar, support the insertion if necessary, and to ward off any potential Iranian reaction by making it hazardous to do so.

[laconicsax]

26. Correct me if I'm wrong, but

doesn't that qualify as an act of war?

[leesa]

49. Doesn't matter. We don't need no stinking law! Both the US and Israel

are rogue nations, they don't play by the rules. Both are terrorist nations.

[xchrom]

27. letting iran know that when israel attacks

we have their back.
this is so fucked up.
the violence is spreading like a virus -- the 21st centurys version of the hundred year war.

[Disturbed]

29. Iran capabilty?

If anybody has info about Iran's missle capablitity to strike Israel, please post. Also, what about Israel's defense of missle system?

[Name removed]

33. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

38. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[leesa]

51. Israel's armed to the teeth. Have been for years, courtesy of you and me

Why do you think her neighbors are so pissed off? They have had nukes staring them in the face for years now.

[Radius]

77. Egypt

Google M1 Tank and Egypt. We set up Egypt to produce our main battle tank. They get about 2bln ayear from us.
Israel is not the only ones we fund. I believe the Egyptians and Saudis fly the f-15 and other American weapon systems.

There is no confirmation of Israel's arsenal and they didn't sign the NPT. Iran did.

[Armand04]

82. Some info

Maybe you can find some info here

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/missile/

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/08/11/iran.missile.reut/

[Barkley]

94. Iran may also try to launch a satellite by converting one of its missiles

to a launcher. That's how the US, USSR, China and Israel first got into space.

Successfully launching demonstrates a country's techical prowness and boost its international prestige.

Finally, a satellite launch would corroborate Iran's contention that the intent of advanced nuclear and missiles technologies are scientific and/ or commercial.

But because satellilte launchers have dual use capabilities as ballistic missiles, launching entails an implicit threat.

[mtnester]

34. And so it begins

Taunting, then when Iran shoots at us, it becomes a hostile act.....

for the love of all that is good and decent in the world, we need to get this man and his minions OUT of our house before he destroys it. The economy? Big deal if we have a limited nuclear exchange (and believe me if Iran has them, they will use them if backed into the proverbial rock and hard place)..

If that would happen...The only economy that will exist will be whoever has the most ammo in the house controls the block and all the food....Health care? Won't matter when billions are dying from radiation and malnutrition. Outsourcing jobs? Won't BE any so again does not matter.

If this escalates, I would not blame other countries if they held the secret meeting and determined to invade US soil to stop this maniac *. Wonder how it will feel when we become the insurgents?

[RivetJoint]

35. It's already a hostile act

on our part if this is true. Unusual that it would be five planes...since the US flies figters in four-ships...

[mtnester]

36. Yeah, I know it is on our part

but the Madman in the White House will spin it as a hostile act on their part, which will be NO surprise at all.

[RivetJoint]

37. IF it's true

The Iranians fib just as much as *

[Vladimir]

42. Interesting point

on the other hand, if they were testing radar intallations, it could have been one EW airplane (such as an ES-3A or EA-6B) with escorts...

[RivetJoint]

45. Why risk

One of those when they could have used overhead assets or an RJ that was at a stand off distance?

[Vladimir]

46. Well maybe they wanted to see

specifically how well the defenses respond to something in their airspace and how well they could deal with it on a tactical level... who knows?

[RivetJoint]

47. Then just overfly the fighters;

no need for the ELINT aircrat to overfly. Just doesn't pass the giggle test is all.

[Vladimir]

50. Nah there would be a point in the elint

because you can test the tactical jamming ability too. But I agree with you, the 5 airplanes does sound a bit strange - on the other hand when that story about the British naval crew came through a few months ago I thought that was weird too but...

[RivetJoint]

53. There was nothing mentioned

about jamming. The Iranians would have mentioned that as it is an overt act of war and cannot be excused by saying, "oops we got lost."

[Vladimir]

54. As far as I can see

their military officials have refrained from commenting on this incident alltogether. IMO, Iran doesn't really want a war right now with the US... they aren't going to provoke things too much.

[RivetJoint]

59. You are right about that!

[DS1]

58. No military would ever admit that jamming worked in public

Still, I hope this is BS

[RivetJoint]

60. Sure they would.

We admit it when it works. Even if it DIDN'T work, they'd say we TRIED it.

[Ghetto_Boy]

99. We did this to the Soviets and vice versa for 40 years. Always

testing.

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

39. Oy vey!

This bodes ill - VERY ill!

[spooked]

41. "We Are Headed for a Showdown that Will Change Our World Forever"

http://www.antiwar.com/pat/?articleid=3427

Neocons Seek Vindication in Escalation
by Patrick J. Buchanan

Given the overstretch of U.S. forces, the invasion and occupation of a nation three times as large and populous as Iraq is off the table. And what would be the probable result of America launching air strikes and starting yet another fire in the middle of the world's gasoline station?

Tehran would likely retaliate by sending fighters into Iraq, stirring up Shia guerrillas in the south, aiding anti-American warlords in Afghanistan, sponsoring terror attacks on U.S. citizens and inciting Hezbollah to refire the Lebanon front.

We could find ourselves in a third war with no allies save Israel. Another consequence could be the disruption of oil shipments from Iran, Iraq and the Gulf, a run-up in prices to $60 or $70 a barrel, and recessions in Japan, Europe and the United States.

Presently, America and her European allies appear to be moving toward Security Council sanctions if Iran does not render hard assurances it is not going nuclear. But if the mullahs have concluded their only defense against U.S. or Israeli preemptive strikes is a deterrent of their own – a not unreasonable assumption given what happened next door – we are headed for a showdown that will change our world forever.

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

44. "Usable Nukes" anyone?

:scared:

[bushisanidiot]

52. Bush The Bully Continues His Crusade Against The Brown People

gee, i wonder what pres. AWOL would do if a foreign government sent their military jets over here.. hmm.. would we shoot them onsite??

[Guaranteed]

55. Ruh-roh.

Not good.

[Radius]

57. IF

This occoured it is bad. A second source would be nice.

1) Iran has ballistic mislle technology based on the big dong il (or what ever the Korean multi stage missle is really called) and can strike israel or troops in iraq. Any missle launch would be detected by satalite 30 minutes before impact. In this time the NCA would authorize us ballistic missle submarines and MX silos to fire hundreds of nuclear weapons into iran.

2) They do not have mirv warheads but if they do have the bomb they probably have single stage 250kt warheads, 10x hiroshima yield.

3) The US and Israle have limited ability to hit these with patriot and aegis (us) based abm systems. The effective use of these is debatable.

3) Why didn't they shoot them down? My bet is that Iran would have fired or aircraft they could see (f16 15). High altitude is SAM country. Even 15 year old soviet missle systems can hit targets not hugging terrain. F-117 is not the plane to use to "map" someones air defense.

4) Iran at max has 10 250kt bombs. The Us and Britian (who would resopnd if their troops were nuked) have 3000mt online. This is a very large deterrent to Iran since a first strike by them would end in every man woman and child in Iran being killed by a massive counter strike. Iranians like iran and don't all want to die.

5) The US has the ability to launch a pre-emptive nuclear war using hundreds of gravity dropped nuclear weapons from stealth jets. This would give Iran no warning and leave them unable to fight. That contingency will prevent them from moving towards a nuclear strike. That potential is speculated to be one of the major factors in ending the cold war. It can not be under estimanted.

But I really think this is BS. How do they know they were US and not Israeli or any one elses jets, if the event even occoured.

[Vladimir]

61. Hundreds of nuclear weapons?

I very much doubt hundreds of nuclear weapons would be fired at Iran under any circumstances - that would leave most of the surrounding countries unihabitable too at the very least.

Also, the Iranians probably didn't fire at the jets because they don't want a war at this point in time - they couldn't be in a better position with regards to Iraq if they tried. A war would only weaken their hand considerably.

[Radius]

63. Nuclear Myth

You would be supprised how many nuclear weapons were detonated in Nevada!

The nuclear powers detonated hundreds on nuclear weapons in above ground tests.

Nuclear weapons and nuclear war are bad news. But in the event of an Iranian launch of nuclear weapons against the us we would respond by firing enough capability to destroy the population of iran. All other concerns would be secondary. That is the purpose of the arsenal. If you launch on us you will never live to reap the benefit. It wouldn't take 3000 megatons and the fallout effect would depend on which way the wind was blowing. That effect varies on the type, yield and of course weather.

People never stopped living in hiroshima and nagasaki. Nuclear weapons have gathered a status they do not live up to. There are much scarier things than nuclear weapons. The live in freezers in Atlanta and Russia. And can kill billions. Nuclear weapons are dated.

This doesn't just mean the Iranians BELIEVE it means the want US to BELIEVE it. Still doesn't make it true.

[Vladimir]

65. I would not be surprised at all

These tests did not generally exceed a few tens of kT, with the majority in the 1-10kT range and with only three or four tests (out of the 1000 or so conducted) exceeding 100kT. The current US arsenal does feature certain (so-called) tactical nukes, but a large portion of the strategic arsenal delivers yields (via MIRV missiles) in the MT range. Indeed of the 7,600 or so of the missiles currently estimated active in the US arsenal, about a third can deliver megaton-plus yields. So it is not really comparable...

Btw. You are right that people never stopped living in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. People also haven't stopped suffering the health consequences, even now.

[Radius]

69. Agree

about Japan. However the SSBNs use 250 - 500 kt thermonuclear warheads, 6 i believe. They would probably be the first response.
The b61 and b83 are 250 kt (variable yield) and 1.2 mt, these are gravity bombs and could be used by b-2, f117 aircraft. The above weapons are the core of the current arsenal. FAS.org has a breakdown of the arsenal

We do not keep multi megaton weapons online as part of the arsenal in masse.

Ivy
Castle
all had numerous multi megaton explosions. Some as high as 15 mt. The Sovs detonated a 50mt bomb. We set off one hundred nuclear weapons in nevada, many approaching 100kt. You can go visit the site, it is a park now.

Some engineer figured out it was more efficent to use multiple smaller nukes than larger ones.

Please don't get me wrong, nuclear war is bad and is a very low probability event considering the lopsided capabilities involved here.

I'm pretty sure Iran would rather use its weapons to kill Israelis anyway.

[Vladimir]

70. When I say a MT yield, I mean

the combined yield for a missile with 6-8 MIRV devices is in the MT range, adding the yields up.

have a look at this site, it details the US tests:

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Tests/

Ivy and Castle were both carried out on attols, not in Nevada. AFAIK, the areas are still uninhabitable today.

PS I am pretty sure that Iran would rather not go to war right now at all, as I said before. They are playing a much smarter game than that...

[Radius]

73. Sorry

I was talking about per weapon yield. Each weapon can hit miles apart or right on top of one another.

You would not want to build a house there but you can go there and camp and scuba dive in the giant crater. Some of the best wreck diving in the world. Lots of people fish there and if I had a 50' sailboat and lots of time Bikini would be on the list of places to dive.

I agree Iran has a better position to hurt us if it does not start or involve its self in a war.

Still I wonder why they did not fire on the aircraft or intercept them.

I'm waiting for a better source.
I was just about to post the same link you have.

[AZCat]

72. The crazy thing is...

The Tsar Bomba was tested at half strength! The Russians were worried that a 100 Megaton bomb wouldn't be testable, and they were right. In fact, the 50 MT bomb almost destroyed the plane used to drop it. It was released at 10,500 meters, and detonated at 4000 meters, and the fireball reached all the way down to the earth and very nearly up to the plane.

The Russians built this thing for political reasons, and never intended to use one in nuclear war. It is tactically and strategically useless (thankfully).

[Radius]

74. Sandia

Figured the cost per increase in megaton to be about 4000 dollars per. Once you have the system it is just a matter of scale.

I will venture to say it is in the best interest of everyone that Iran complies with the NPT it signed. The Israelis are much more concerned by this.

[AZCat]

75. There are some design changes that have to be made

But once you get the more advanced bomb designs down, it is pretty simple to increase the yield. There are some freaky things you can do to create different effects, but most of that stuff was discontinued back in the 1960's (the cobalt bomb, etc).

By the way- "The New Yorker" had a couple of good Seymore Hersh articles this spring on Israel's possible moves towards Iran. I think they're available on the 'net.

[Tommy_Douglas]

79. Its true that if a country used nukes...

on another country that has nukes that they would expect to be attacked with nukes in return.

Iran is not attempting to develop a nuclear weapon, so that they can use it on Israel or the United States. They are developing it for deterence purposes.

The United States even with someone as stupid as Bush in charge will think twice before invading a nuclear capable Iran. Would you want to see the United States invade such a country unless it was absolutely necessary?

If Iran can demonstrate that they have full nuclear capabilities it will completely change the scope of power in the Middle East. Israel will no longer be able to act the tyrant. They'll be forced to negotiate with these people as equals whether they wish to or not.

[Radius]

81. Iran

Signed the NPT.
I'm fairly certain that iran's former defense minister stated Iran would be willing to accept a nuclear attack from israel if they could wipe israel out. Thus advancing islam. Still looking for the quote. I'm at work so I can't look to much..

Iran sits on massive oil reserves. I doubt Iran is enriching uranium to use for "peaceful" purposes.

BTW if Iran has nuclear capability Europe falls under their umbrella as well. Law of unintended consequences. All that will happen is a new cold war, new arms race. Israel will develop ABM's Iran will try to mirv its weapons. More people will face nuclear annihilation.

No one is invading Iran. But by your logic we invaded one country that was thought to have WMD's, invading another is no different.

Not saying we will or should.
Iran has no ability to attack us with coordinated strikes. We could drop 100 nuclear bombs on Iran with no notice, via stealth aircraft, and follow up with SLBM and MX missiles until life ceases to exist in iran.

Not saying we will, but Iran has nothing to gain in a nuclear war with us.

This is still dubious source at best.

[Hobarticus]

62. I'm skeptical, given the source, but still...

Even if this didn't happen, what's more important is that the Iranians BELIEVE it happened.

That's all it takes.

[WLKjr]

66. It's RECON

why else would they fly into Iran?

We will be invading Iran next, you just wait and see. N. Korea will then be next once we have bases in the Middle East, sitting on top of the worlds largest oil supplies.

This whole thing is some crazy shit.

[Radius]

71. Space

We can listen to their radar and see them at <1m resolution from space.

There is a big if on this story. There are other countries in the region with the ability to make overflights. There is no way you can positively identify an aircraft type or nationality from the ground.

[Eloriel]

67. What we're up to? Why, provoking a pre-emptive strike by Iran

so we can pre-empt them back. That's what I think, anyway. And/or checking out their defenses and response to our provocations.

[Drifter]

68. We call this "Spankin the Badger"

You fuck with a little animal.
Until it bites you
Then you are justified to kill it.

I can almost hear AWOL voice now "Iranian forces have attacked our Aircraft"

Cheers
Drifter

[Noodleboy13]

80. If I were Iran, I might start looking at Carriers

Iran has Exocet missles. If I felt like rolling the dice, heres what I'd do. Send up 4-5 mig-29's to draw away air support from the main carrier battle group. From a different direction, send in 3-4 Mirage f-1's flying fast and low. When they get in range, lauch exocets at the carrier. Now, Iran would lose planes. I don't think they would be able to sink a carrier either. However, they could force it to withdraw. That would drastically hamper the ability of the US to project power, and to provide adequate air support for any expansionary moves into Iran.

Of course, I could be totally deluded as well.

[Radius]

84. That

Would start a theater war. We would bring the many other carriers we have and systematically destroy irans' air defense, military targets, including reactors, and any armor or men on the ground. If it worked, it would not.

Carriers are protected by cruisers and destroyers with air defense capabilities a 100 miles beyond the range of the exocet\silkworm. Carriers are fed information gathered by awacs that can detect a car driving on the ground or a patrol boat at sea. Aiegis links awacs info, and radar info from other ships, and can engage hundreds of targets at once, air and sea. Carriers have 24hr ready alert and have supersonic aircraft capable of intercepting aircraft before they could engage. Those aircraft can fire on migs at a range of 100 miles.

Lastly all aircraft carriers are equipped with phalanx guns that use radar to target inbound missiles. Designed to destroy the exocet and its soviet equivalent.

The only thing Iran would get from that tactic is a war it can not win.

[Noodleboy13]

85. I was wondering about that

I know they protect carriers like they're made of spun chocolate, but I wasn't sure of the details of "the bubble."
Thanks for the info.

[Strelnikov_]

87. I Do Not Think Iran Will Strike First

However, if we strike, I am afraid all the cards are off the table. In this event, I fear for our sailors in the gulf.

As you mentioned, Iran has invested heavily in ASM systems. Our Navy, as evidenced in the Stark, Cole, and a recent incident where one of our carriers ran over an Iranian dhouh (small boat)in the gulf, has a track record of letting security slip.

There has never been the use concentrated use of ASM's that could occur in the event of a conflict with Iran. At some point in history the weaknesses of battleships relative to air power was going to be demonstrated. Hopefully, we don't see our surface fleet in the gulf sink into obsolescence against a massive ASM assault.

[Radius]

89. Stark

Identified the iraqi jet as friend.
Starks phallanx system was offline for repairs.

Actually they were used heavily in the faulklands war and we learned much from the british mistakes.

If iran launched an asm attack they would have to do it with existing concentrations, if they start moving them in they show up on the eye in the sky. If they launch aircraft we intercept them. In a nutshell our arm is longer than theirs.

Either way we have more than one carrier group and like I said that would be Irans last mistake. It would lead to an open war.

[Strelnikov_]

91. You Obviously Have Much Greater Faith In The MI Complex Than I

From what I remember of the Falklands war, ASM’s were not extensively used, and the British were facing a relatively inept military. Yes, most missed, but when they hit, the damage was extensive. And let us remember that this was 20 years ago, I am sure that ASM development has not stood still while the science of countermeasures has advanced.

I am afraid that with the advances in modern missiles, surface ships are going to prove even greater deathtraps than they were in WW II when the ascendance of the airplane dealt mortal blows to ships previously thought unassailable.

Yes, I have read the publicly available information on ASM defense systems. The problem is, have these systems ever been tested under fire to the degree we would face against Iran (or China, North Korea, etc.)? The answer is, they have not.

However, my concern more stems from the lessons of history than the paper capabilities of these systems. Remember, militaries are always trying to fight the last war.

I am sure the French thought their Franco-Prussian war maneuvers would overcome entrenched German machine gun positions during the great center thrust (August 1914).

The French thought the Maginot line would keep out the Germans in the Spring of 40.

What about battleship development prior to W.W. I. The battle cruiser was thought to be a great development, until shells pierced their lightly armored decks at Jutland.

What about the unarmored decks of our aircraft carriers during W.W. II. We got lucky on that one (in that the Japanese carriers were also unarmored).

The Sherman tank. Our troops were told it was the best in the world, until it ran up against the German equipment.

And what about the Patriot missile, the ‘Scud Buster’.

History is riddled with weapons systems that looked good until the bullets fly, then the limitations become apparent. Some militaries adjust, as we did in WW II. Others are destroyed when the system they relied on is so massively flawed, such as the French in 1940.

My concern with the modern missile is that they are relatively simple compared to the countermeasure systems needed to protect against them.

I really hope you are right.

[Radius]

96. Britain

Lost naval assets to exocet systems, and bought every one on the open market to prevent Argentina from buying them. We learned and all our ships have phalanx guns as well as chaff. I dont think an Iranian jet would be allowed to position its self to fire the weapon. Even if they did hit a few ships they would still recieve a historically signifigant ass kicking.

Iran deploys soviet era crap. They are poorly trained and equipped and will not start a war with the US. If they do they will lose their air cover in a day or so and then be pounded into the ground. No shock and awe just systematic destruction like that unleashed on Germany in ww2.

ASM has advanced, but we don't sell our weapons to Iranians. They have the same French/Chinese weapon used 20 years ago. It cant fly through a wall of metal.

http://www.royal-navy.mod.uk/static/pages/3530.html

http://www.fact-index.com/f/fa/falklands_war.html

Two days after the Belgrano sinking, on May 4, the British lost the Type 42 destroyer HMS Sheffield to fire following an Exocet missile strike. The Sheffield had been ordered forward with two other Type 42s in order to provide some sort of radar and missile "picket" far from the British carriers. After the ships were detected by an Argentinian Navy Air Force (CANA) P-2 Neptune patrol aircraft, two CANA Super Etendards were launched, each armed with a single Exocet. Refuelled by a C-130 Hercules shortly after launch, they went in at low altitude, popped up for a radar check and released the missiles from 20 to 30 miles away. One missed HMS Yarmouth, due to her deployment of CHAFF, but the other hit the Sheffield and set her on fire, killing 22 sailors onboard

[Barkley]

90. Iran's strongest weapon against the U.S. is its oil!

If the U.S. or Israel attacked, I can't imagine Iran's oil production not being "distrupted".

The world's reserves are pretty tight right now.

A war/ attack on Iran could put the whole world economy at risk.

Iran could also export oil in euros instead of dollars; which would
further reduced the value of the dollar.

[Strelnikov_]

92. I Agree, This Is My Greatest Concern <nt>

[Radius]

93. Iran is small time..

Is not on the top 10 list of oil imports to the US. Canada, Saudi, Venezuela, and Mexico comprise the bulk of our imports..

I'm pretty sure it is not a top 10 net exporter, I'd have to google that to be sure..

[Barkley]

95. It won't take much to disrupt the world price of oil today: Iran is #2

Opec Nations Daily Oil Production

Opec Nations produce about 40% of the world's oil and
account for 60% of the oil sold in the world markets.

Barrels of Oil in 2001
S. Arabia 8.1 million
Iran 3.6 million
VZ 2.9
UAE 2.2
Kuwait 2.0
Libya 1.3
Indonesia 1.3
Algeria 0.80
Qatar 0.63
Iraq ---

Source: OPEC www.opec.org

Its the price of oil that Iran can influence by simply taking oil off the market.

[Radius]

101. only opec

You are correct, but Iran is not even a top 10 supplier to the US.

There are lots of other non opec numbers. To put it in prespective we pull 1 million bbl a day just from saudi. then canada , venez., mexico,

http://www.vaughns-1-pagers.com/crude-oil-facts.htm

This irans effect and place in the market. Note since this graph russia has boosted its output.

For some reason I google this topic every other day, find the current specs and forget to bookmark it.

[NickB79]

97. Look at what the Yukos lawsuit caused in Russia last week

Yukos only supplied 2% of the world's oil as well, but worry about that loss drove oil prices up very much.

[Radius]

103. Enronesque

Futures speculation. That is an example of greed in motion.

It's slipping now.

[nolabels]

76. I am betting instinctively Iran KNOWS better

I would also be betting they read and hear from many other sources. They can also figure on a last gasp from the bushco. Having your finger on the pulse of your nemesis is often done when ever possible.

Them dudes over there in Iran have to be very wary of the tricks played. After all so many times they have been the recipient of such. The possum don't play possum just for fun, don't ya know

[spooked]

86. THIS PHOTO will certainly PROVOKE IRAN!

This is the Valley of Peace sacred Cemetery in Najaf. It stretches for miles, and several MILLION Shia Muslims are buried there. It is over 1000 years old. This photo was taken a few years ago by a National Geographic photographer.


This photo appeared in the Tehran Times today. Imagine what the Iranians are thinking to see US Soldiers stepping on the graves of their Islamic ancestors buried in the sacred Valley of Peace!?

THE MOSQUE and Cemetery in Najaf IS SHI'ITE ISLAM'S HOLIEST SITE, and IRAN is 89% Shi'a Muslim!

[spooked]

100. Al-Sistani tells Iraqis to march to Najaf and "save it from destruction"

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/42D1E168-48B9-401C-B00F-4F6933CA44CE.htm

Najaf bombed, Al-Sistani calls for march


Wednesday 25 August 2004, 23:18 Makka Time, 20:18 GMT

Thousands of Shia supporters greeted al-Sistani's return


As US AC-130s continued their sixth day of bombing runs on al-Mahdi Army positions in Najaf, Grand Ayat Allah Ali al-Sistani has issued a call for Iraqis to march to the city to "save it from destruction".

Iranian-born al-Sistani arrived in the southern city of Basra early on Wednesday and called on the march to begin on Thursday.

He is hoping to end the fighting between US forces and followers of his political foe, Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, by breaking up the two sides.

"The march will make history. It could be decisive in keeping Iraq united. We can talk politics later," said Uloum, who acknowledges Sistani, 73, as the highest living authority in Shia Islam.