STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 18 August (Enron 1k day)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday August 18, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 155
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 76
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 250 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 304 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 517
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1000
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 17, 2004

Dow... 9,972.83 +18.28 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq... 1,795.25 +12.41 (+0.70%)
S&P 500... 1,081.71 +2.37 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.21% -0.05 (-1.22%)
Gold future... 406.70 +1.30 (+0.32%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - WEEKLY CHARTS

-lotsa charts-

Weekly Summary

The technical indicators are back at the bottom of their range as they were on 7-23-04, while the major indices are lower in the tune of 1.4% for the Dow, 1.5% for the SP500, 5.4% for NASDAQ%, 3.4% for the Mid-Caps, and 4.2% for the Russell 2000. In other words, despite that "technically" the markets were at levels that in the previous 15 months had attracted buyers. The last time around that wasn't the case. From the inflows/outflows comparison charts below, we can see that every bottom that took place the last few months was accompanied by increased selling, by higher level of outflows, which in the latest case, exceeded inflows by such margin that neutralized almost immediately the anemic buying that came in, resulting in a failed 5 day rally, which took the indices between 2% to 3.2% higher before they turned back down again.

The obvious question now is, are we going to have a repeat of what happened two weeks ago, or with selling exhausted, and thus, buying pressure, will be the primary force behind the markets' move result in a sustainable and successful rally? Judging from the inflows/outflows comparison chart, we see no reason to believe that such a thing is about to happen. As we can see very clearly, selling has been expanding, and buying has been contracting as prices erode further. If outflows had been contracting as price made lower lows, then we would have a a clear indication that selling is being exhausted, and thus, buyers would soon have the upper hand.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Analysis live: Google counts cost of errors

Google meant to rewrite the rules of how Wall Street sells a company to the public. But it has actually offered a case study of how small mistakes -- among them talking to Playboy magazine, failing to register shares distributed to employees with regulators -- can lead to big problems.

Still, the most widely used Internet search has also been a victim of a stock market that has turned against both Internet stocks and IPOs.

Shares of Yahoo, arguably Google's largest rival, are down more than 20 per cent this summer. Shares of EBay have also plunged. Google has finally reacted to this with the announcement that it has reduced the price range of its IPO to between $85 and $95 a share from $108 to $135 a share.

story

[54anickel]

3. Oil Prices Surge to a Record High ($47)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040818/markets_oil_5.html

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices surged to a new high of $47 a barrel on Wednesday on evidence from major economies that energy costs are not substantially slowing the economic growth that fuels oil demand. Fresh threats by rebel militia in Iraq against oil facilities helped underpin price gains.

snip>

The United States on Tuesday said consumer prices fell in July for the first time in eight months, indicating underlying inflation pressures are largely under control in the world's biggest oil importer.

In Germany on Wednesday Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said that while high prices were a concern, global growth remained strong.

"We don't currently see any negative impact from the oil price and we still have very robust global growth," Schroeder told a press conference in Berlin.

"The economy overall is unaffected by oil prices at this high level. That suggests retail oil demand will continue to be healthy," said Tony Nunan, manager at Mitsubishi Corp. (Tokyo:8058.T - News)'s international petroleum business.

more...

[54anickel]

4. Bank of America Plans Big Layoffs -Paper

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=K5XFHDMZBRVKQCRBAELCFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=6004340

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp. (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , plans on Wednesday to lay off hundreds of tellers and other employees at Fleet bank branches, and ask them to leave immediately, the Boston Globe said on Wednesday, citing documents it obtained and Fleet branch managers.
One Fleet manager informed of the plans estimated at least 1,500 people, or on average one per Fleet branch, might be affected by Wednesday's cuts, the newspaper said.

North Carolina-based Bank of America, the No. 3 U.S. bank, bought FleetBoston Financial Corp., which was based in Boston, for $48 billion on April 1. It plans 12,500 job cuts, or 7 percent of the banks' combined workforce, over two years, with some cuts coming through attrition.

Bank of America is converting Fleet's branches to its own brand name and model, which uses fewer full-time workers per branch, the newspaper said, citing Fleet workers. Wednesday's layoffs will affect nearly every locale where Fleet does business, it said, and may be especially painful to Fleet employees who thought Bank of America assured them that their branches would escape the brunt of the cuts.

Bank of America spokeswoman Eloise Hale did not immediately return a call seeking comment. She told the Globe that some job cuts would be offset by job additions elsewhere, and denied that laid-off employees would be asked to leave immediately.

more...

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.09 Change +0.03 (+0.03%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH86242_2004-08-18_11-52-04_L18620024

FOREX-Dollar fights to keep off lows, dogged by data

LONDON, Aug 18 (Reuters) - The dollar struggled to pull away from August lows on Wednesday as investors wondered whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates next month after another round of weak U.S. data in the previous session.

Data on Tuesday showing consumer prices (CPI) fell in July for the first time since November, while industrial production rebounded less than expected, were the latest releases to suggest the U.S. economy might be in a soft patch.

A light U.S. data calendar on Wednesday providing nothing new to confirm or contradict Tuesday's weak figures, as well as a market that is already fairly short of dollars, resulted in only modest moves in major currencies.

"On balance the Fed will probably still raise rates but more weak data is going to cause significant doubts about that," said Chris Gothard, currency analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman.

"There's just a bit more wait and see going on in the market. People aren't so willing to be too decisive on the basis of the inflation report -- they want to see more evidence about jobs and growth before they start writing off Fed rate increases."

...more...

and more layoffs

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/4933685.html

Net loss leads to layoffs at CNT

Storage networking firm Computer Network Technology Corp. (CNT) on Tuesday reported a $12.1 million net loss for the second quarter and announced that it had laid off 18 percent of its workforce. The company blamed a slack tech economy, while analysts pointed to a difficult acquisition as well.

The results confirmed a warning by the Plymouth company this month that a delay in orders had undercut plans for near-break-even second quarter. CNT reported a pro forma loss of 20 cents a share on revenue of $77.2 million.

But before the company's Aug. 5 warning to lower expectations, analyst Chad Bennett of Miller Johnson Steichen Kinnard said he expected CNT would have pro forma earnings of 2 cents a share on revenue of $103 million.

CEO Tom Hudson blamed the results on slowed demand for information technology products because of a troubled economy.

But he acknowledged problems with an acquisition last year. Hudson said he still believes that acquisition of data storage networking company Inrange was good for CNT.

"We are very disappointed with the quarter, and we have as a result taken quick actions to balance our revenue and expense outlooks to get us back to neutral and then to cash flow positive and profitability by year's end," Hudson said.

To cope with sharply lower revenue, CNT said that last week it eliminated 220 of the company's 1,220 jobs, and that the layoffs affected primarily engineers, technical support workers and salespeople. About a third of those laid off were in the Twin Cities, and about 40 percent of the remaining 1,000 workers are based here.

...more...

Gotta run this morning :hi:

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

6. Stupiditum ad infinitum (Mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty081804.html

The Treasury Gross Public Debt, which is how much debt the brain-damaged Congresses that we elected for the last half a century has borrowed and spent, soared to another record. As of Friday TGPD is, in case you are keeping score, $7.312 trillion dollars. Which doesn't look like much, I know, but it comes out to about $52,600 for everybody who has a job in the entire damn country.

Of course, Custody Foreign Holdings at the Fed ballooned by another $8.3 billion in the last week, since dollars are piling up overseas and they have to get those damn dollars back into the USA so that we can borrow them and use them to buy more stuff. So that particular cesspool of debt rose to $1.256 trillion. I know that the standard line of the Loony Left is that 1) all you gotta do is love people and they will love you back and 2) if things are not working out like you thought, then that means we do not have enough love, and we will need to love each other even more, and so I cannot imagine that foreign devils would use that massive, huge, unbelievably glob of toxic debt in an extortion racket of some kind. So just relax. Currency in circulation jumped by a billion bucks, which I assume is still being used to bribe the Iraqis into being nice with each other for awhile so that Bush can have something to talk about during his campaign for re-election.

snip>

The worst news, in my book, is that "The average weekly earnings of U.S. workers after adjusting for inflation rose 0.7 percent in July, after falling 0.8 percent the month before. The July increase was the first in six months." Which wasn't, from the data itself, enough to make up for even the losses from last month! So, at the end of the day, inflation is eating up the wage gains of the workers! Fabulous. Just freaking fabulous. It just gets better and better! I can only imagine with horror the declines in the real and imputed incomes of those who are, in effect, wards of the states and the federal government!

So everybody (except for the rich, I suppose, but I don't know about those guys because they are too smart to be seen hanging around with the likes of me, and every time I get around these rich people they always pucker up their faces and motion to a security guard to ask me what I am doing around here since they can tell just by looking at me that I don't belong around decent people and maybe I ought to be a good boy and just move along and save myself a lot of trouble) is getting poorer in real, inflation-adjusted terms. And now I probably have to listen to another witless lecture about how Alan Greenspan and the Fed are NOT incompetent, mental-defective charlatans, but instead it is a Good Thing (GT) that people are suffering falling standards of living, and how this is actually the earmarks of successful monetary management or something.


snip>

Martin Huchinson, posted an essay on The Bear's Lair entitled "The Way We Live Now." He says "It is likely that 10 years from now, when the long recession/stagflation period is at last beginning to lift, real U.S. living standards, on average, will be as much as 20 percent below where they are today, once the higher savings rates and higher tax levels of 2014 are taken into account."

And if you want to know how much fun having a 20% fall in your standard of living represents, divide your next paycheck into five piles. Throw one of the piles in the trash. Write down in your diary how much you like it. For you political science buffs, Mr. Hutchinson asks "If Bush loses in November, it will be interesting to see who gets blamed for this -- John Kerry, in whose presidency the worst of the downturn will hit, George W. Bush, who postponed the downturn by tax cuts but worsened it by public spending rises, or Bill Clinton, on whose watch the preceding bubble inflated (it must be remembered that liberals blamed the Great Depression on the entirely innocent boom-era president Calvin Coolidge for half a century after 1929)." So after you and your friends have had a long heated discussion about that, he remarks "The real culprit, of course will be Alan Greenspan."


more...

[54anickel]

7. Neo-con ideology, not Big Oil, pushed for war

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FH18Ak01.html

WASHINGTON - Why did the administration of President George W Bush push to invade Iraq? Most left-wing critics - epitomized perhaps by Michael Moore's blockbuster documentary, Fahrenheit 9/11 - have rather reflexively argued that the economic factor, particularly the interests of Big Oil or "the ruling class", must have been decisive.

But many right-wing critics, who know the ruling class from the inside, lean to a different explanation, in part by pointing out that Big Oil, to the extent it took any position at all on the war, opposed it. As evidence, they cite the unusually public opposition to a unilateral invasion voiced quite publicly by such eminent oil and ruling class-related influentials as former president George H W Bush's national security adviser Brent Scowcroft and secretary of state James Baker.

While they do not deny that some economic interests - construction giants, such as Halliburton and Bechtel, and high-tech arms companies - may have given the push to war some momentum, the decisive factor in their view was ideological, and the ideology, "neo-conservative".

Powered by both Jewish and non-Jewish neo-conservatives centered in the offices of Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney and by White House deference to the solidly pro-Zionist Christian Right, the neo-conservative world view - dedicated to the security of Israel and the primacy of military power in a world of good and evil - emerged after September 11, 2001, as the driving force in President Bush's foreign policy, as well as the dominant narrative in a cowed and complacent mass media.

Neo-conservatives - their world view, history, networks, strategic alliances, and their role in moving the United States to war in Iraq as well as the dangerous consequences of their policy prescriptions - are the subject of America Alone: The Neo-Conservatives and the Global Order (Cambridge University Press), by far the best study of the neo-conservative movement and its relevance to Bush's "war on terror" in the flood of critical books that have poured forth in the aftermath of the Iraq war.

much more...

[54anickel]

8. Futures blather, then I gotta run

9:11AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Futures market slips to its lows of the morning, and suggests a moderately lower open for the indices... The consistently high price of crude oil, worries about the sustainability of the semiconductor upturn following AMAT's report, and a weak showing in Europe this morning have weighed heavily on the action.
8:52AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Expectations remain intact for a modestly lower open as the futures indications retain a negative bias... Elsewhere, things are looking up in the treasury market - where bonds are finding follow-through buying interest to their rally yesterday.

8:25AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Futures trade heads lower as traders remain fixated on a handful of negative headlines - such as the unrelenting price of crude oil... No economic reports are scheduled today, which should probably help keep the focus on energy concerns.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Cash market slated for a lower open in response to moderate losses in Europe and the latest record high ($47.01/bbl) for crude oil... The past two days of healthy gains for the indices, and AMAT's Q4 (July) earnings warning last night, have also prompted a more cautious attitude.

From INO

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates above initial resistance marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 1326.75. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and have turned bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 10-day moving average are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If the decline continues, a test of weekly support crossing at 1267.54 is possible later this year. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 4.00 pt. at 1334.50 as of 6:58 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1072.86 and is challenging broken support marked by May's low crossing at 1079.50. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning bullish signaling that a low is in or is near. Closes above May's low crossing at 1079.50 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If September extends this summer's decline, a test of weekly support crossing at 1049.20 is possible later this summer. The September S&P 500 Index was down 3.40 pts. at 1079.70 as of 7:00 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning

[bill]

9. and they're off!

DOW 9,945.85 -26.98 -0.27%
NASDAQ 1,787.44 -7.81 -0.44%
S&P 1,080.19 -1.52 -0.14%
10YR 100 22/32 +8/32 Yield: 4.16%

[loudsue]

10. What is holding up the stock market???

There's no money anywhere, as far as the eye can see! Maybe those CEO's who make all the 7 and 8 figure salaries are churning each other's stocks.

I just don't get it!!

But....gotta kick the stock market watch back to Pg. 1!!!

:kick::kick::kick::kick:

[MARALE]

11. kick

I love to watch and learn from this post every day, everyone does a great job. got to keep it kicked!
:kick:

[Media_Lies_Daily]

12. And the futures have taken a dive as well.

[ozymandius]

14. I can think of four things.

(Boy - it seems that many of our regulars are busy today.)

Four things supporting the stock market:

(1) Asian and European banks: Foreign banks buy Treasury bonds and stocks in order to fuel our economy. If America sinks, they sink. Somehow, anyhow, the appearance of capitalization and liquid assets must be maintained. This appearance breeds consumer confidence.

(2) Companies shuffled through market composites: The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P will de-list companies that bring the overall market average down. When the Dow drops a company from it roster of thirty industrials this makes big news. Most recently, Kodak was de-listed from the Dow. Nasdaq is known to do this regularly - especially after the dot-com bust. The S&P does this all the time. According to a friend who works with a brokerage - the S&P changes companies almost as frequently as a carousel changes passengers. This assures that the market averages stay within an "acceptable range".

(3) Company buybacks: Companies will occasionally buy back securities. This is especially true when they have a lot of cash on the balance sheet. Who benefits? Insiders exercising stock options. This program allows employees and other "preferred" individuals to buy stock at a discount then cash them in at market value. In the past six months, we have seen more corporate insiders cash out their options than any time in history. (Some take this as a bad omen. Others just see financial opportunism.) Buybacks allows the company to legally and artificially boost the price of their stock.

Case in point: Cox Communications announced last week that the company is going private. This means that they would buy back every share of stock. Their stock was trading around $8/share at the time of the announcement. During the trading day after the announcement, Cox's stock price rose to $38/share. Oddly, Cox said that each share would be bought back at $36/share. It sounds reasonable that some money could have been made for the company during its trading peak.

(4) Investor 990N: This was the subject of much speculation a few weeks ago. An entity that trades using the identifier of 990N has been playing havoc with the S&P. An enormous amount of money has been earmarked for "buy" options on some S&P stocks. In effect, this huge chunk of cash has outweighed all the other transactions in the S&P portfolio. This practice has driven the S&P pit traders nuts, according to accounts on a trading message board. Who is 990N? No one in the general information pool knows. It has been speculated that it is really the Federal Reserve under the direction of Alan Greenspan or one of his "fixers". One has also suggested that it is the identifier for a White House office that used to be lead by "Fischer the Fixer". Fischer has moved on but the office is probably still in operation "fixing" broken financial things. Reason #4 is the embodiment of "deus ex machina" - or ghost in the machine.

I am sure there are others who could expound upon what I've written here.

[TrogL]

22. Could 990N be the Plunge Protection Team

Are there similar "ghost in the machine" investors in the other exchanges, particularly the DOW?

[54anickel]

26. Ozy, you left out my favorite.....

Geometric Storms! Heh-heh-heh :evilgrin:

http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=AFD46B63-2852-4812-BE83E6D0C777F4BF&method=display

Explaining movements in daily stock prices is one of the most difficult tasks in modern finance. This paper contributes to the existing literature by documenting the impact of geomagnetic storms on daily stock market returns. A large body of psychological research has shown that geomagnetic storms have a profound effect on people’s moods, and, in turn, people’s moods have been found to be related to human behavior, judgments and decisions about risk. An important finding of this literature is that people often attribute their feelings and emotions to the wrong source, leading to incorrect judgments. Specifically, people affected by geomagnetic storms may be more inclined to sell stocks on stormy days because they incorrectly attribute their bad mood to negative economic prospects rather than bad environmental conditions. Misattribution of mood and pessimistic choices can translate into a relatively higher demand for riskless assets, causing the price of risky assets to fall or to rise less quickly than otherwise. The authors find strong empirical support in favor of a geomagnetic-storm effect in stock returns after controlling for market seasonals and other environmental and behavioral factors. Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all U.S. stock market indices. Finally, this paper provides evidence of substantially higher returns around the world during periods of quiet geomagnetic activity.

[Frodo]

27. Option number (5)

(5) The stock market, at it's most fundamental level, rides on the growth of corporate earning. That's why the long term real return of the markets is virtually indistinguishable from the long term average increase in corporate earning.

The two can split from one another at any time for any of a number of reasons, but you will eventually come back to "corporations are making more money than last year (and they ARE) so stocks will be higher".


Oil has been holding things DOWN... very little is holding things UP.

[ozymandius]

30. Right. I forgot that one.

While the price of a pair of Nike sneakers continues to rise, the cost of producing that pair of sneakers has fallen. One attribution for this decline in production costs is the relocation of manufacturing centers where workers make less than $5/day. The profit margins are huge.

EDIT: I must note that this is just an example, however apt.

[bain_sidhe]

32. Insider sales... illuminating graphs

This line:

In the past six months, we have seen more corporate insiders cash out their options than any time in history.

reminded me of a couple of graphs I saw in the Kevin Phillips book I just finished (Wealth and Democracy)

Because the graphs cover different time periods, I've helpfully outlined the corresponding time frames:



as householders who had abandoned stocks during the silent crash of 1966-82 were lured back in...



...the insiders sold out to Mr. and Ms. J.Q. Public, leaving ordinary citizens holding the bag.
(when the market crashed in 2001 - me)

I've typed in Phillip's text "commentary" under the graphs because they didn't scan well. These charts are from a series of six on page 363 (in the hardcover edition) and represent (per the credit line) "Separately published charts in Barron's national financial weekly, with commentaries by the author."

[nolabels]

41. That is a good set of graphs in showing what was really going on

Thanks for posting it :hi:

[UpInArms]

13. 12:45 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,005.87 +33.04 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,814.49 +19.24 (+1.07%)
S&P 500 1,088.01 +6.30 (+0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.226% +0.020

12:25PM: Little change in the overall trend as stocks remain in the green... The day's advance has been fairly uniform across most sectors, with virtually every group (except for tech, which has jumped 1%) climbing 0.2-0.6% higher... Homebuilding has been one of those as it has benefited from an upbeat Mortgage Bankers Association report... Applications popped 12% in the past week as the average 30-year fixed rate dropped to 5.75% - a 4-month low...

Applications next week should be similarly strong if the same trend remains in tact as the yield on the 10- year note has held near its multi-month lows of 4.22%...NYSE Adv/Dec 2189/936, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1951/930

12:00PM: The market began the day modestly lower, but then managed to reverse its losses in conjunction with the drop in crude oil prices... The commodity opened just above $47/bbl as a Shi'ite militia group threatened the Iraq oil sector, but quickly came down as the American Petroleum Institute showed a smaller than expected decline in US oil inventories... Right now, crude is slightly lower for the day, at $46.15/bbl... Just about every industry group has lifted higher in an extension of the moves seen over the past two days...

Tech has been the standout to the upside thanks to gains in most of its components... Semiconductor has come as a bit of a surprise as Applied Materials (AMAT 16.05 -0.02) gave fairly cautious guidance for Q4 (Oct) over its Q3 (July) conference call... The rally, thus, can be attributed to a relief bounce (or even short-covering) following the group's 20% plunge over the past few months... Internet has actually been a rare exception - traveling lower - as shares have been hit by Google's lower IPO price range...

[UpInArms]

15. Janus Capital settles SEC fraud case for $100M

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&dateid=38217.4700694444-817979998&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Janus Capital Management (JNS) will pay $100 million to settle Securities and Exchange Commission fraud charges tied to mutual fund market timing. The investment firm will pay disgorgement of $50 million and civil penalties of $50 million, according to the SEC. The company agreed to a cease-and-desist order and compliance as well as governance reforms. Janus stock was last up 15 cents to $15.35.

[tlcandie]

16. Ello everyone!!

Always read, but rarely post! Question if anyone can find time to steer me in the direction, please!

I am interested in ethical biogentics companies. Those who have integrity and ethics. I've put ethical genetics into google and didn't get what I was trying to locate. We were thinking of possibly investing as some are saying it is the next big wave. The only problem I have is that I don't want to invest in a company that supports people like the * regime!!

I'm not looking for tips or advice only to be steered in the 'general' direction and/or some information regarding this area you might want to share or your feelings about it.

Thanks for all your hard work!!! :hug: :hi:

[ozymandius]

18. Advice.

No one here should ever give specific advice on what to buy. But that does not preclude steering you in some direction. Check with Domini Social Equity funds. They look for socially conscientious companies. Their returns are not always that great. However, they are thinking very far ahead, beyond the horizon.

[tlcandie]

19. Thanks Oz! Exactly what I was looking to research!

And yes, NO ADVICE as I previously stated!! :hug:

[llmart]

20. Check out PAX Worldfund also.

n/t

[tlcandie]

21. Thanks llmart! eom

[54anickel]

28. There is a lot of info out there, and many added socially responsible

funds in the past few years. I did a lot of digging around for these when I was looking for a place to park my 401K after being laid-off. Lots of free literature available. I started out with a google for "social responsible investing" and requested lots of literature. The one Ozy mentioned was one that I got a lot of lit from (along with a few others). Good luck in your search.

[UpInArms]

17. China to cover Yukos rail costs for oil shipments

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B9F56754B-C2DD-4F6B-9704-C6BBAF71B836%7D&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- China reportedly plans to pay for Yukos' (YUKOY) rail transport costs so that it continues to receive oil from the financially distressed Russian oil giant. With Russian tax authorities chasing $3.4 billion in back taxes from Yukos, the company's ability to cover its costs has been called into question. The Associated Press reported that Russian Railways has said that oil-starved China will step in to ensure that it gets about 124,000 barrels daily.

[UpInArms]

23. Dillard's Sales Decline

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20040818-000373-0930

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. -- Dillard's Inc. (DDS) narrowed its fiscal second-quarter loss from a year earlier, when results included charges related to closing underperforming stores. The department store operator also posted weaker sales.

Dillard's on Wednesday reported a net loss of $26 million, or 31 cents a share, for the period ended July 31, compared with a year-earlier net loss of $50.4 million, or 60 cents a share.

Results for the 2003 period included charges of $10.9 million, or 13 cents a share, for asset-impairment and other store-closing costs, and a $125.9 million call of debt that resulted in added interest expenses of $10 million, or 12 cents a share.

Sales fell 2.9% to $1.67 billion from $1.72 billion. Sales at stores open for at least a year, a key measure of retail performance known as same-store sales, declined 3%.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Crude Oil Prices Move Above $47 a Barrel

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2004/08/18/ap1509733.html

Crude oil prices surged again Wednesday, rising above $47 a barrel amid lingering concerns on supply from Iraq and Russia.

U.S. light crude for September delivery was up 37 cents at $47.12 in pre-market trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract hit a record closing high of $46.75 on Tuesday. On an inflation-adjusted basis, oil is still about $10 a barrel, or 18 percent, cheaper than it was just before the first Gulf War.

On London's International Petroleum Exchange, Brent crude futures for October delivery traded at $43.21 per barrel at midday, up 22 cents from Tuesday's floor trade close.

Traders remained concerned over unrest in Iraq. Fighting continued in the holy city of Najaf despite a peace proposal delivered by the Iraqi interim government to aides of militant cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in Najaf.

Forces loyal to al-Sadr had earlier threatened to blow up crucial oil pipelines, prompting a temporary stop to the flow of crude.

...lots more detail at link...

[UpInArms]

25. 2:36 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,035.59 +62.76 (+0.63%)
Nasdaq 1,822.34 +27.09 (+1.51%)
S&P 500 1,091.66 +9.95 (+0.92%)
10-Yr Bond 4.229% +0.023

2:25PM: Having successfully maintained the recent leg higher, more buyers have joined the ranks and sent the market to new best levels... The ability of the indices to move steadily higher throughout the day, without succumbing to selling pressure, has given traders more proof that the trend is to the upside... Provoking buying activity or short-covering - either way - the major indices are accelerating off their gains and setting up for their third positive finish...

The semiconductor index (SOX) itself has taken out a weekly resistance level at 385, helping the Nasdaq in its attempt to make progress in the 1820/ 1829 area...NYSE Adv/Dec 2359/ 881, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2079/919

2:00PM: Buyers catch a second wind, and after seeing the indices fall in the last hour, pick up the pace and send them near session highs... Leadership continues to be provided by semiconductor, airline, and oil service - which have helped place pressure on trailing groups to join the uptick... Right now, just about every industry is showing moderate gains - with notables such as basic material retracing their earlier losses... Advancers now claim a more than 2-to-1 lead over decliners at the NYSE and Nasdaq...NYSE Adv/Dec 2223/989, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1954/1014

1:30PM: The market drifts slightly lower but has yet to fall below the afternoon's range... Airline (XAL +3.2%) has been one of the strongest groups of the day, and within the past 10 minutes, it was delivered some news that may change that standing... Dow Jones reports that the airlines have agreed to cut flight delays by 20% at Chicago's O'Hare Airport - the world's largest airport...

short-covering, eh?

[54anickel]

29. China investment spending jumps

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3575254.stm

An unexpected jump in China's fixed-asset investment during July has raised question marks over government attempts to curb spending.
During the first seven months of 2004, the statistical office estimates that spending on assets such as factories and roads rose 31% from a year earlier.

The market had expected growth of closer to 20%.

The concern among some analysts is that the country's booming economy is still in danger of overheating.

"This figure will surely puzzle investors and even trigger questions on the effectiveness of the government's investment cooling measures," said Jun Ma, an economist at Deutsche Bank.

more...


Wooooshhhhh, Was that China that just flew by?

Stop, hey what's that sound?
Everbody look, US is going down.

[htuttle]

31. What do you suppose it would take to truly 'overheat' China's economy?

They've got a billion people, with plenty in the boondocks that don't even have reliable electricity yet. Wages are going to stay low for a long time. They've got central planning, so inflation due to speculation shouldn't be an issue. And they've got the US by the short hairs, financially speaking.

What would it mean for China's economy to grow 'too fast'?

:shrug:

[ozymandius]

33. Further deregulation is just a guess.

After floating the yuan - lax control over lending is another possibility.

[54anickel]

35. Heh, full employment won't be a concern for quite awhile! I think

another question is "too fast for whom"? The stories of overheated had more to do with too much duplicate investment going on at once. Concrete was taking off, suddenly everybody and their brother were building concrete plants. Their big worry was over investment in certain sectors.

They tend to use Japan as the example of growing too fast and what could happen to China, but when you dig deeply into what actually caused the decline and ultimate deflationary dilemma of Japan, it's not that simple as growing too fast. The US policies and the globalization push had a hand at play in that as well.

[54anickel]

34. The ‘rich' still bear tax burden (Hahahahaha! didn't like the CBO report

so they've got to quote their friends at the Heritage Foundation) Looks like more of that boxing match I mentioned yesterday.

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/business/9426534.htm?1c

snip>

The Tax Foundation, for instance, has used its tax-tracking model to determine who comprises those with incomes high enough to qualify them to be rich enough to be deserving of higher taxes. The findings are important because a key argument of foes of the Bush administration's tax cuts has been that the reduction of the highest marginal tax rate represented an undeserved break for the wealthy.

Before anyone buys into this argument, however, they should inform themselves as to who the rich are and what they're already doing to support Uncle Sam. The Tax Foundation study, which included both Internal Revenue Service and Census data, shows that “an extraordinarily high proportion of high-income taxpayers have some form of business income.” As their incomes rise, so does the likelihood they'll be involved in business activity.

The study estimates that 54 percent of all individual income taxes collected this year will be paid by business owners. Moreover, 37 percent will be paid by business owners filing as individuals and reporting incomes of $200,000 or more.

So, as it turns out, the prime targets of the revenue enhancers are mostly hard-working Americans who not only contribute significantly to economic growth, but also already bear a substantial portion of the income tax burden. Meantime, it's reasonable to assume that some of their income finds its way back into the business — especially family enterprises.

The moral issue here, it seems, is what represents a reasonable share for high-income taxpayers. The top 20 percent of all income earners are paying about the same percentage of taxes they were before the Bush tax cuts, which Investors Business Daily recently reported at just over 64 percent. A Heritage Foundation report quoted by the newspaper also estimates that the Bush tax cuts have pared the percentage of the federal tax burden for the middle 20 percent of income earners from 16.5 percent to 14.6 percent.

[bain_sidhe]

45. Another graph...

**edited out duplicate gif! it's big enough with out showing it twice!**

I'm in the middle of re-doing this one, because the text got distorted when I shrank it for the web... the info comes from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (http://www.itepnet.org/ - the full report is a pdf file at http://www.itepnet.org/earnan.pdf)

[54anickel]

46. Thanks bain_sidhe! I'm still digging through some of the articles by

Kevin Phillips in between chores here. I still plan on getting that latest book of his too. :hi:

[bain_sidhe]

47. WAGE taxes vs INVESTMENT taxes

That's the key... Sure, the 'rich" may pay the same percentage of taxes on their EARNED income (actually they don't - the graph above includes FICA taxes, which stop after $70,000+) But 51% of their total income comes from investments - which are taxed at a MUCH lower rate (and got a MUCH bigger tax cut, percentage-wise).

I haven't got Phillips' latest either (American Dynasty: Aristocracy, Fortune, and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush), but I'm GOING to, just as soon as we get over the rough patch... It's only *relatively* rough, compared to some of the folks here still looking for work - but we don't have much for extras, so we're cutting back on things like books to catch up. :(

[54anickel]

48. Yep, I hear ya! It's getting a bit tight around here - one of the reasons

I hemmed and hawed about going back to school. We did some budget adjusting so I could do it and my class schedule is set up that I still could take on a full-time day job. Man, that'll be rough. I did full-time student and work the first time around, but I was much younger then and was on my own. So, if I do take on a job and have the extra change for the book, I won't have the time to read it!

[54anickel]

36. 1.3 billion reasons to worry about oil (China)

Newsday war-mongering.

http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-vpts0815%2C0%2C692217%2Cprint.story?coll=ny-opinion-headlines

American leaders have good reason to worry about the price of oil. Oil price shocks can play a decisive role in ending a presidency, as in the cases of Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush. The Nov. 2 election may well hinge on the cooling of the economic recovery caused by sustained high levels of oil prices. But that's not really what the next president should be so concerned about. The real oil shocks -- much more damaging and sustained than ever before -- will come a bit later, but much sooner than anyone had expected, from a part of the world not even discussed seriously in the current campaign:

China.

With 1.3 billion people, a phenomenal rate of economic growth, and an insatiable consumer demand for cars, China will soon come into direct conflict with the United States over oil, the world's most valuable and increasingly scarce industrial commodity.

The pressure on supply will inevitably jack up prices to levels that would make today's motorists and electricity customers blanch.

The conflict is unavoidable. It could create geopolitical tensions and cause dramatic shifts in U.S. foreign policy that may overshadow today's preoccupation with global terrorism. And there are no easy solutions to avert it, only regrets over this nation's missed opportunities in decades past to develop viable alternative energy sources to lessen U.S. dependence on imported oil.

snip>

Chinese troops in Sudan

While Washington has begged the world -- and pressured the United Nations Security Council -- to send peacekeeping troops to Sudan to quell the sectarian fighting that has put a million refugees at risk, China has already deployed 4,000 troops to Sudan. But those troops are there only to protect China's investment in an oil pipeline. China is concerned that civil unrest could wreck the oil project. It has actually been hostile to U.S. pressure to impose economic sanctions on the Arab government in Khartoum, a key Chinese client, buyer of Chinese arms and partner in oil exploration.

It was also telling that China was a major opponent at the Security Council of the war against Iraq, in large part because China had obtained prospective contracts with Saddam Hussein for exclusive exploitation of some oil fields. But perhaps the most worrisome prospect for U.S. policymakers is China's burgeoning attempt to secure ties with Saudi Arabia, the world's arbiter of the oil market, taking advantage of the Saudi regime's tensions with Washington since the 9/11 attacks.

All these are disquieting harbingers of Beijing's coming conflict with the United States over oil. It will come sooner than expected and the United States is not prepared for it. This president or his successor must, at the very least, alert the nation about its consequences, initiate a national conversation about it and encourage a program of energy conservation to alleviate the obvious economic pressures we will all face.

China's need for oil is the proverbial 800-pound gorilla in the room, and no one seems willing to confront it or even acknowledge it -- until it's too late.

[54anickel]

3:30 update (Time to look at those techs from Ike this AM)

Dow 10,055.13 +82.30 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq 1,825.34 +30.09 (+1.68%)
S&P 500 1,092.84 +11.13 (+1.03%)
10-yr Bond 4.227% +0.021
30-yr Bond 5.032% +0.018
NYSE Volume 1,059,914,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,282,558,000

3:00PM: The indices float along their highs of the day, sellers remain a faint force in the market... Today's session can be counted as a small victory for the bulls as the odds of a third day of gains were - quite frankly - low given the present trading environment... Some inroads in terms of technical barriers has been made, but the market still has a ways to go before restoring its upward path... A fair amount of resistance remains, and concerns about interest rates, inflation, and economic growth remain prevalent...
The market will get several data points on the latter tomorrow with weekly initial claims, July Leading Indicators, and August Philly Fed...NYSE Adv/Dec 2411/850, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2105/907

2:25PM: Having successfully maintained the recent leg higher, more buyers have joined the ranks and sent the market to new best levels... The ability of the indices to move steadily higher throughout the day, without succumbing to selling pressure, has given traders more proof that the trend is to the upside... Provoking buying activity or short-covering - either way - the major indices are accelerating off their gains and setting up for their third positive finish...

The semiconductor index (SOX) itself has taken out a weekly resistance level at 385, helping the Nasdaq in its attempt to make progress in the 1820/1829 area...NYSE Adv/Dec 2359/881, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2079/919

[DU GrovelBot]

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[54anickel]

38. Hollyork Nation (anti TV article)

See Ozy, you're really not missing much. B-)

snip>

No dictator has every enjoyed such a tool for social control, for near absolute power over what people see, over the news, over a culture. Like the bite of a leech, television is painless. Two decades later, the country is unrecognizable.

We underestimate the box. It is tasteless, dumbed-down, and commercial, yes, yes. All the adjectives apply. We have heard them. We agree with them. But we miss the point. We miss the point because the fare is so contemptible: Nothing that stupid can be dangerous.

Oh yes it can.

The lobotomy box gives to Hollywood and New York limitless sculpting access to the minds of our children, limitless power to condition all of us. For hours a day, week after month after year after decade, each generation sees what the two cities wants it to see. It sees nothing else. Because the programming does not come from the formal government, because it seems to counsel only the purchase of New! Improved! Whatever! because we hold it in contempt while spending our lives before it, we – many of us – do not see what it really is.

The content of television is neither merely banal nor merely commercial. This would not matter. Instead it is subliminally didactic, unendingly instructive. It has agendas unrelated to soap. Remember that the advertising and television industries are tightly entwined. Those commercials, seemingly almost invertebrate in their tiresomeness, in fact are the product of decades of manipulative experience by highly intelligent people who have studied the psychology of the audience.

If you want to change the behavior of an audience or a country, if you want to replace their deeply held values with your own, you don’t tell them what to do or what to believe. They might resist. We do not like getting orders. No, you show the things being done – over and over and over. In the beginning you only imply the desired behavior or point of view, leave it in the background so that it is hardly noticed. Over and over and over you imply it. Gradually you make it more explicit. It takes years, but people come to accept whatever they see, and then to imitate it.

[54anickel]

39. Well I did it!

I went in to register to go back to school and finish my degree. Might as well use my time without a job on self-improvment and resume enhancing. Seems experience with only an AAS isn't enough in this employers market these days.

Tired of hearing "your qualifications and past accomplishments are indeed very impressive, however we require a BA degree for this position". Sheesh, I just hope they don't up the ante to MA or P.h.D before I get my degree! There are going to be an awful lot of newly equipped BAs floating around out the near future. Found I'm not the only one running into this problem and taking this course of action. So, more than likely, unless the economy gets turned around I'll be in about the same boat when I get out. Just as much competition and now we're all equally edumacated with our fresh BAs.

Oh, and that whole money for training of displaced workers thing....BS. They'll only train for a trade in a technical school. I've taken every stinking computer related course and Advanced Technical Certificate offered at the community college on top of my AAS from there, but that's all they'll cover. Believe it or not, they'd happily toss that money for me to repeat any one of these. My case worker is going to push one more time to get the gubbermint to accept my enrollment at the University, but not promising at the moment.

Thanks Shrub!!!

Sorry to interrupt the SMW for my personal rant. :hi:

[Maeve]

40. Good for you!

I wish the Shrub would have to deal with "re-training" when we displace him this fall...but he'll just go back to being the fortunate son of wealth and that has NO training required! Any fool can do it if born to the right family...

[54anickel]

42. The "fortunate son of wealth" - ha, born with the silver spoon in his

nose. And here I thought he was just the "Idiot Son of an Asshole"

Haven't given this one a good plug in a while B-)
http://www.ericblumrich.com/idiot.html

Thanks for the encouragement Maeve!!!! :hi:

[54anickel]

49. Maybe I could get "born again" into the right family that is. Heh-heh!

[54anickel]

43. What's the deal with the buck today? Made a nice round trip thru

the day to end up a wee-bit lower than it started off. Sheesh, friggin speculators :eyes:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 88.02 Change -0.01 (-0.01%)
Open 88.02 Previous Close 88.06
High 88.33 Low 87.89

[54anickel]

44. Closin' time. DU Marketeers weren't the only ones wondering wazzup

NASDAQ still below the resistence level quoted by Ike in the wrapup. Dow & S&P busted threw. Nice little set up for fleecing, er uh I mean nice little rally going there.

Dow 10,083.15 +110.32 (+1.11%)
Nasdaq 1,831.37 +36.12 (+2.01%)
S&P 500 1,095.17 +13.46 (+1.24%)
10-yr Bond 4.227% +0.021
30-yr Bond 5.032% +0.018
NYSE Volume 1,287,714,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,564,962,000

Close: A stealth rally materialized today - one most would not have anticipated with the lower start to the day and the still high price of crude oil (up $0.09 to $46.35/bbl at the close today)... Buyers dipped their toe in the water after the indices recovered most of their losses in the first half an hour of trading, and then began climbing steadily higher... No true catalyst could be attributed to the uptick - other than carryover momentum from the past 4 sessions of gains, and a sense that the indices were oversold (sitting at yearly lows last week)...
Technology was the leading force in the advance, benefiting from huge gains in software, networking, disk drive, computer hardware, and semiconductor... The latter came as a bit of a surprise considering Applied Materials' (AMAT 16.17 +0.10) cautious-sounding Q4 (Oct) guidance over its Q3 (July) conference call... Investors, for once, were not too troubled and instead bid up beaten-down semi stocks... The blue chips also turned in an impressive performance of their own, thanks to big moves in energy, financial, drug, and retail...

In fact, every single blue chip group inched higher - with the sole exception being food distributor, which was weak off of further selling interest in Sysco (SYY 31.71 -0.31) in response to its Q4 (June) earnings miss yesterday...SOX +3.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 2577/747, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2291/821

Have a great evening everyone! :hi:

Edit to add:
I'm betting there may be good economic indicators tomorrow. After reading thru all of today's blather. Traders got a sneak-peek?

http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html