Florida will feel Chávez vote

[Judi Lynn]

Posted on Sun, Aug. 15, 2004


VENEZUELA RECALL


Florida will feel Chávez vote

If Venezuela President Hugo Chávez survives today's recall referendum, it could mean more Venezuelan immigration and investment in South Florida.

BY RICHARD BRAND
[e-mail]


Today's recall vote on Venezuela's pugnacious president, Hugo Chávez, could have a profound financial and political impact on South Florida, home to a fast-growing expatriate community and focal point of U.S.-Venezuelan trade worth billions of dollars.

The outcome of the recall -- which analysts warn could be plagued with irregularities -- also could exacerbate tensions in oil-rich Venezuela and produce a ripple effect throughout a region that is closely linked to South Florida.

Recent polls suggest the race is impossible to predict.

But analysts say a Chávez win could produce a short-term surge in investment and immigration to Florida as wealthier Venezuelans move to protect their resources.
(snip/...)

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/9403851.htm
(Free registration required)

[Vladimir]

1. What do you think about this oil strike

business Judi? Could Chavez's supporters really hold a strike together if he loses, and to what effect?

[Judi Lynn]

3. Hi, Vladimir. Sorry, I haven't been following anything on a strike,

I'm afraid. Haven't really been as current on this as I would have liked, but I'm in the dark about any plans for a strike in the event Hugo Chavez should lose.

I never felt he would lose, if the election is allowed to proceed without meddling by _Bush through harder-to-follow channels, like payoffs through NED, phoney grants through International Repulbican Institute, etc.

According to this article I just found, it looks as if the "opposition" may be expecting Hugo Chavez to be there a while, as not only are they emigrating to South Florida, they're also streaming to Texas. Didn't know about this until a moment ago:

Aug. 15, 2004, 12:37AM

Houston is home to many workers leaving Venezuela
Oil industry and the promise of jobs have created a population boom
By JENALIA MORENO
Copyright 2004 Houston Chronicle

Since President Hugo Chavez took office in 1999, thousands of former middle- and upper-income Venezuelans have moved to the United States and created their own little corners here. More than 10,000 Venezuelans now live in the Houston area, estimates Wladimir Torres, 51, publisher of the monthly newspaper El Venezolano de Houston. That's up from the 1,592 Venezuelans counted in the 2000 census.

Unusual among their neighbors for their low levels of emigration, Venezuelans until recently enjoyed a comfortable lifestyle because of the nation's oil wealth. Many of Chavez's opponents blame the coup-leader-turned-president for destroying that way of life.Like the middle- and upper-income Cubans who fled after Fidel Castro took over more than four decades ago, Venezuelans left everything behind. While Cubans left on rafts and were nicknamed balseros, or rafters, Venezuelans holding U.S. visas boarded planes for their new homes.

As with their Cuban counterparts, most Venezuelan immigrants speak English, are educated and have enough money to start businesses here. And like Cubans, many Venezuelans settled in the Miami area, where they had once traveled to for shopping trips or to visit family members who long ago migrated to the United States.
(snip)

As with their Cuban counterparts, most Venezuelan immigrants speak English, are educated and have enough money to start businesses here. And like Cubans, many Venezuelans settled in the Miami area, where they had once traveled to for shopping trips or to visit family members who long ago migrated to the United States.
(snip/...)

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/2735428
(Free registration required)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It would be a novel situation, wouldn't it, if the next Venezuelan strike in the oil industry was actually controlled by the working people, rather than the corrupt officials who locked them out earlier? That was a rare event, with U.S. money flowing to both officers in the oil company, and to corrupt union officials, like Carlos Ortega.

That level of sabotage from outside the country really shouldn't happen again.

The workers could really throw a wrench in things if they organized.

[Judi Lynn]

4. I just found a small reference to a possible looming strike

Many traders were buying oil as a precaution ahead of a recall referendum on Sunday directed at Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The vote has raised fears of strike action in the oil industry.

"It looks like it is going to be a tight election," said Fimat USA market analyst John Kilduff.

"You have to believe the losing side is going to allege fraud and that the situation will deteriorate," he said. "There is a real possibility oil production will be affected or reduced as result."

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2004/08/15/2003198868

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This almost makes it sound as if speculation and discussion of a strike might be coming from outside the country, doesn't it? I'll keep looking around for more info.

On edit, an article from Bloomberg:

Venezuela Boosts Security at Polls, Oil Fields for Chavez Vote
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela's army stationed 118,000 soldiers to guard polling stations, and the state oil company doubled security at its installations to help ensure order during today's vote on whether to recall President Hugo Chavez.

The army intends to protect the nation's 8,400 ballot locations, Army Chief of Staff General Julio Quintero said in a televised press conference yesterday. Petroleos de Venezuela SA boosted security at its fields, refineries and storage tanks, a company spokesman in Caracas said in an interview.

Concern that the vote may prompt violence in Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil supplier, helped push crude prices to record highs Friday. Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said on Friday that prices would surge should unrest threaten oil production. Previous attempts by Chavez's opponents to oust him, including a military coup and a national strike, sparked deadly protests.
(snip/...)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=at9gYKcB2tME&refer=latin_america

[Vladimir]

7. Yeah it does make you wonder

although I rather think that Chavez is just trying to mindfuck the US... the last thing they would need in election year is an oil strike to push prices up. And since they have been sponsoring the opposition, it would be a somewhat ironic present to GWB, though not his first international relations fuck up by any means.

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

12. It would seem that allegeing this as an outcome would be a good way to

further smear Hugo to the American people - IMO

[Classical_Liberal]

2. I don't think it will be that major

Chavez appears to be a progressive populist, who wants more investment in social programs, not a communist who will move the poor into rich people houses or nationalize all the news papers and shit. Not that this doesn't also make him an enemy of the greed and graft crowd in Washington.

[Judi Lynn]

5. Decent comment from Counterpunch!

August 13, 2004

Report from Caracas
The Referendum on Chávez is Only a Preview of Bigger Battles to Come
By LEE SUSTAR

Caracas.

The populist Venezuela President Hugo Chávez Frias looks likely to win the recall elections on August 15, but the conservative opposition will keep battering away-and with Washington's help.In a typically wide-ranging and lengthy press conference August 12--Noam Chomsky, Eduardo Galleano, and Jean-Jacques Rousseau each got mentions--Chávez mixed defiant statements about U.S. imperialism and George W. Bush (the "master" of the opposition) with an offer to meet with his rivals after his expected victory.For their part, the opposition leaders, who later that day drew more than 100,000 to rally across town in the upscale neighborhood of Altamira, whipped up the vote for a "yes" to the recall-and showed little interest in reconciliation with Chávez, who they tried and fail to oust in a coup in 2002.

Financed by virtually all of Venezuelan big business and given all-out support by the corporate electronic media, the opposition may be past its peak but can still muster large numbers. The opposition has taken up the slogan "against jobs, insecurity and disunion" to appeal to the lower middle classes. Many of these people have been downwardly mobile or economically insecure since neoliberal, free-market "structural adjustment" came to Venezuela in 1989, the year a popular uprising against International Monetary Fund austerity measures was put down with 1,500 killed.

The opposition's appeal to the middle class on economic issues, however, doesn't square with their earlier attack on Chávez's social programs, known as "missions." Taking a page from NGOs, Chávez's team has bypassed the inefficient and opposition-dominated state bureaucracy to create ten new operations, including medical clinics in shantytowns and villages, staffed by Cuban doctors; technical assistance to farmers; food security for impoverished indigenous groups. (Think about it: in the U.S. people lose their health care every day; in impoverished Venezuela, the system is expanding). A poster seen in the Caracas subway captures the impact of the programs: A Black woman says, "Today I'm a maid; tomorrow, I'll be a social worker." Such programs an essential part of what Chávez calls his "Bolívarian revolutionary process"-a populist program of aid to the poor and nationalist insistence on Venezuela's sovereignty. It's a charismatic, top-down, leadership-centered "revolution," however, compared to the mass insurrection that toppled the Somoza dictatorship in Nicaragua in 1979.

Nevertheless missions-funded by high oil prices-have deepened Chávez's support among the poor, and were key to mobilizing an estimated 1.2 million to a "Vote No" rally August 8. (An opposition rally that day drew well over 100,00 as well, but was nevertheless far smaller than its counterpart). It's the sight of poor Venezuelans-some 80 percent of the population-politically active and with raised expectations that terrifies the wealthy and upper middle class. To mobilize votes, however, they need to give a populist cover to the opposition. To that end, the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers (CTV in Spanish), long controlled by the Democratic Action (AD) party, has played a prominent role, as has the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) and a Maoist sect, Red Flag. But the brief U.S.-backed seizure of power by Pedro Carmona, head of the business group, FEDECAMARAS from April 11-13 discredited the opposition in the eyes of millions. The failure of the bosses' "strike" in the oil industry in 2002-2003-which dealt a huge blow to the Venezuelan economy-also cost the opposition support. The aftermath of the oil strike saw the main oil workers unions and others leave the CTV to form the National Union of Workers (UNT), which is in the process of developing its structure and program.
(snip/...)

http://www.counterpunch.org/sustar08132004.html

[arcos]

6. I don't want to hijack this thread but...

Since I am a spelling freak in Spanish (my native language), it makes so much difference to me to see "Chávez" instead of the usual "Chavez"!

I don't agree with several things Chávez has done, but I really hope he wins tomorrow. The opposition makes me puke :puke:

[Judi Lynn]

8. I'll try to remember that, arcos!

Here's a new tone surfacing I haven't seen before. Just found this article:

.....Amazingly, after months of struggle toward a democratic, constitutional, electoral and peaceful solution to Venezuela's crisis, there are those today who wish that nothing will change. To them, less change means more stability.

A long-sought victory over Chavez "could turn into the worst nightmare," said Pedro M. Burelli, former member of the board of directors of Venezuela's state oil company. In a telephone interview from Caracas, he said a large victory for the opposition could lead to a quick "implosion" in the Chavez government for which opponents would be as ill-prepared to respond as Chavez's supporters to accept.

The Bush administration too may be wishing for little change in Venezuela after Sunday. Over the last few days, Bush officials have been biting their tongues not to publicly antagonize Chavez. For officials who less than three months ago were issuing ultimatums and talking of a "consolidation of a dictatorship" under Chavez, this sudden silence is remarkable.

It may be a sign that they don't want to give Chavez anything he can use to his advantage, but it could also be a calculated response to avoid further instability in the United States' fourth-largest source of oil just weeks before the U.S. presidential election.
(snip/...)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60603-2004Aug12.html

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

By the way, the Counterpunch article above indicates the Chávez "opponents" are going to be very conspicuous later today:

Indeed, as most opinion polls showed a likely Chávez victory, the opposition announced that they would declare their own results based on exit polls at 2 p.m.-hours before the voting concludes. If the electronic voting-itself the subject of a huge number of conspiracy theories-later shows a Chávez win, then they will be expected to cry fraud. If a manual count of paper receipts confirms a Chávez win, the opposition may claim that Chavistas in the military stuffed the ballot boxes.
(snip)

By their behavior, you'd think their group was still the party in power, wouldn't you? They are really imperious. I hope they bite it big time. It won't stop them, but it can definitely make them lose face, and cause them a few headaches.

[Laughing Mirror]

14. Oil market hoping for a "crushing victory" for Chávez

to avoid strikes like those of a year or so ago, reported French paper Libération last Wednesday, August 11. Since price of oil has gone up 30% this year, market doesn't want anything else that might spell instability.

It does sound surprising doesn't it? But it does explain why Bushco seems to be lying low on this one. Funny to think those oil barons backing Chávez because he's good for business. They must really despise him, not only because he seems to be successful in the oil business, but, worse, he funnels the profits back into his country. How awful! They must not be able to stand the cruel reality of it all.

[AP]

15. I think I read recently that car sales are skyrocketing in VZ because...

...many more people can now afford them thanks to wealth spreading a little farther down the latter.

That should be another reason why big businesses, like the oil industry, should like Chávez.

[Laughing Mirror]

18. Barring any (un)forseen circumstances

Because half of its exports are oil, Venezuela economy expected to grow 10% this year thanks to the high oil prices. Market does not want that oil to be off-line for two months as it was at the beginning of last year, responsible for 9.3% drop last year, if the figures I read are accurate.

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

11. It kills me that you can't use those characters in user names

:)

[Laughing Mirror]

13. We're all guilty of leaving out the accents half the time

Even when we write and speak the language. It's these keyboards, ill-equipped to deal with all these marks, and our laziness looking things up on keyboard charts, i.e., Alt + 0225 for á.

[ret5hd]

19. how do i do that on my keyboard?

[Judi Lynn]

9. For anyone who missed this the first time, you might find this interesting

A little noticed retraction published in the Chicago Tribune on April 20 summed up the extreme prejudice of our major news organizations against the president of Venezuela:

"An editorial on Sunday mistakenly said that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez had praised Osama bin Laden. The Tribune regrets the error."

http://www.ftlcomm.com/ensign/editorials/LTE/weisbrot/weisbrot002/regimechange.html

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Is that sick or WHAT?

Bush regally walking this way behind Hugo Chávez at the Monterrey Summit:

[Vladimir]

10. If I was Chavez in that picture

I'd be checking my back for a knife...

[AP]

16. Interesting picture. You'd think that when two guys who have such

divergent views on which direction power should flow -- down to the people vs up to the oligarchs -- get so close to each other, there would be an explosion or something.

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

20. lightning bolts shooting from one to the other

:)

[goforit]

17. More grumpy immigrants with $$$$ = Corruption in Miami

[Joanne98]

21. But if Kerry wins in November, they'll have to protect their assets

FROM US:) So they better go somewhere else cause they're NOT WELCOME HERE......