Kerry Takes Lead Over Bush in Florida

[Nambe]

TALLAHASSEE, Fla (AP)

Democrat John Kerry has taken a slight lead over President Bush in Florida — the essential swing state in the 2000 election, according to a poll out Thursday.

Kerry and running mate John Edwards had the backing of 47 percent, Bush and Vice President Cheney had the support of 41 percent and independent Ralph Nader and his running mate Peter Camejo had 4 percent in the Quinnipiac University poll.

Bush and Kerry were deadlocked in Florida at 43 percent each in a Quinnipiac poll in late June.

The August poll found Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the president's younger brother, getting tepid reviews from Floridians. They were evenly split on whether they approve or disapprove of the job the second-term governor is doing.

The survey also found fewer than half, 47 percent, were "very confident" that their vote would count. Only one in five said the same about new touch-screen voting machines that will be used this year in 15 of the state's largest counties.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. Uh-oh...

Jebby and His Political Thugees are getting their bag 'o dirty tricks out of the closet as we speak.

Oh man...Florida is gonna be go-to-hell ugly. No way Jebby won't mess with things. It is just not his essential nature to no do so.

[zanana]

2. A "slight" lead?

Am I wrong, or is 47% to 41% more than a slight lead?

[RDANGELO]

3. I would call it a modest lead. N/T

[sendero]

4. Kinda depends on the sample size...

... most polls have a "margin of error" of 3-4%. If this is a well-designed poll with an adequate sample size, that 6% lead is very significant.

[Il_Coniglietto]

6. Poll details from the article

"The poll of 1,094 registered voters was taken Aug. 5-10 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points."

That's more than a slight lead, I should think.

[yellowcanine]

9. Not if Kerry has the 47%. It would be a "solid lead" if Bush had it.

That's ok. A 1 point win on Nov 2 still puts Florida in the Kerry column.

[Spangle]

11. Must have a 7% lead for it to be a strong lead

That seems to be what all the pollers are doing this time. I think it use to be 5% lead.

Anything less then 7% is "Toss Up" or "To close to call." I think they are hedging their bets. With a 3% margin of error and the possiblity of "mind change", 7% is a for sure lead.

Double digits is a "Strong" lead. Kinda hard to fight double digits leads. 5% lead, one can make a dent in it, even change the lead at the last minute. Like a October suprise sort of thing.

[TankLV]

25. Depends on where the "R" & "D" are. If it was the other way around,

it would be "(the idiot, criminal, AWOL, Deserter) bush* holds a commanding lead against Kerry".

We all know the drill by now.

[democrat in Tallahassee]

5. things are going to get ugly here and not just katherine harris, either

last time we had road blocks, precincts closed, felon lists, and all this in highly Democratic Leon county. The cops are SO pro-bush here, even though the sheriff is a dem.

[aquart]

8. Your cops are still pro-Bush?

NYC cops don't like him anymore. Or NYC firefighters.

[noonwitch]

7. No poll is perfect, but this is good news

Plus, Ohio is too close to call in the polls. Both states are high population-lots of electoral votes (I'm not sure how many, but population-wise, I think FL is 4th and Ohio 5th).

[Zynx]

10. Ohio is seventh I think behind PA and IL.

[Yavin4]

12. This Just In...47% Of Voters In Florida Have Been Purged from the Rolls

It seems as though Florida has become a haven for ex-cons.

[NeoConsSuck]

13. Wait until the seniors get a look at their 401k statements..

kerry will be up to 65%.

[alcuno]

14. 47% to 41% is a slight lead?

What? Does Kerry have to be up by ten points for it to be better than "slight?"

[llmart]

15. They're not planning on stealing Florida this time.

That would be too obvious, so they'll steal Ohio instead.

[lastliberalintexas]

22. I agree

I think we'll see the problems in Ohio, Penn, Wisconsin, New Mexico and the like. Other states that were close in 2000 and states that are polling with tight numbers now.

[ItsThePeopleStupid]

23. Jeb Bush is once again telling repubs

to vote absentee.

Then there's the 2004 "felon" list, most of who were never felons.

I think there's reason to be suspicious.

[trotsky]

16. Time to "upgrade" the voting machine algorithm...

Bv (Bush votes), Kv (Kerry votes)

Bv := Bv + Kv*.2
Kv := Kv*.8

There... safe again.

[Nashyra]

17. cnn just said 49 to 42

Canddy the crud Crowley just said the slight lead was 42%for the * and 49%for KERRRRRRYYYY

[NeoConsSuck]

21. You've found the algorithm..

that CNN uses to conduct their bogus online polls.

You don't work for them, do you? :)

[TahitiNut]

18. It shows an unusually high number of 'undecided' voters.

Pardon my skepticism, but I don't believe the voters of Florida are that undecided. To me, this indicates a heightened mistrust of the polling.

This is the most polarized electorate in recent history, and nowhere is it more so than in Florida, imho. If turnout in Florida isn't the highest ever, it'll be because of a serious lack of trust in the elections systems themselves.

[DrWeird]

19. No surprise. We won florida in 2000.

And this time there'll be international election monitors to make sure black people get to vote this time.

[leftchick]

20. CNN's "I like" Candy Crowely calls this a ...

"minor bump" for Kerry! I can't stand that Ho! She always says Kerry too. Not Senator Kerry but Kerry. As opposed to "his royal highness the President of the United States bush*".... :puke:

[ksatriyakiller]

24. yes

yes