Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention [USATODAY]

[truthisfreedom]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm

Posted 8/1/2004 1:20 PM     Updated 8/1/2004 1:30 PM


Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention
By Susan Page, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — The Democratic National Convention boosted voters' perceptions of John Kerry's leadership on critical issues, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds. But it failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against President Bush.

In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards trailed the Republican ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney 50% to 46% among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%.

Before the convention, the two were essentially tied, with Kerry at 47%, Bush at 46%.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless a stunning result, the first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention.

<snip>

[qanda]

1. Stunning result!

Oh joy, now journalists use adjectives to report.

[Demeter]

2. And the Brooklyn Bridge is Half Off Today!

USA Today is a joke.

[happynewyear]

5. USA Today is full of shit

they did not even report the massive peace demonstrations before the Iraq war! They are the "news" page for my server. It really pissed me off and I dumped them for quite sometime. Now, I've got them back again and I remain to be the least bit impressed. :(

:dem: :kick:

[Lithos]

3. Interesting

This contradicts the other polls which have shown a fairly significant bounce.

However, as I recall the Gallup poll has found itself increasingly inaccurate, I guess the heyday has shifted to the newcomers such as Zogby.

L-

[truthisfreedom]

4. the article says they are continuing their polling through tonight. it

seems that even they don't believe their own poll.

[still_one]

6. Probably because every other poll contradicts theirs

[Frodo]

9. Do they? Is this the CNN/Gallup poll?

I know they've done combined polling before, but I thought that was a three point gap?

[formernaderite]

17. Yeah it is....I thought I heard wrong when CNN had Wolfie ...

....announcing this. Regardless of "how" accurate this is....it's disturbing. Well....viewership for the convention was at an all time low...so it might be the biased media coverage that has slanted perception. Hopefully coverage of Kerry on the trail will retilt this somewhat.

Then again,I'm one of those progressives that outside Obama's speech, hated the convention. I couldn't stand Kerry's "reporting for duty" line, and was repulsed by the pro-military flag waving republican-lite patriotism on display. Whew....maybe "other", particular undecided voters felt the same.

[Frodo]

22. I'll agree with one thing there

I think it was a mistake to go all "patriotic" at the convention. No, not that we aren't truly patriotic (or frankly that the other side doesn't have their share of patriots too). It's that it stood too great a chance of looking phoney. And, more importantly, it implies that it's a strong suit for the Republicans and Kerry is playing catch-up on the issue.

He wasn't playing like the polling leader - he looked like he was playing defense.

Defense wins football games - not elections.

But there's plenty of time left. The debates are the dividing point.

[aquart]

36. Sorry, not ashamed our man is a war hero.

And theirs is an AWOL coward.

WE ARE AT WAR. True, you haven't been asked to sacrifice. And I haven't, but some of us are dead.

Kerry polled weakest for the war because of Republican propaganda and the convention geared up to correct that without going negative. They succeeded beautifully. Damn shame the nation wasn't allowed to watch.

Name me one person who did NOT vote for Bush last time who IS voting for him THIS time?

He LOST the popular vote last time. WHERE has he picked up NEW votes?

[Turbo]

41. Name me one person...

"Name me one person who did NOT vote for Bush last time who IS voting for him THIS time?"
=========================

Actually, slimeball Zell Miller comes to mind.
As does Ed Koch, former NY mayor.

Bushie Boy puts on a good act. Unfortunately, some people can't see thru it.

[Frodo]

48. I disagree.

Kerry polls weakest on the war because (for good political reasons) he's been on both sides of the issue. Some of his pre-war quotes sound just like Bush... and then it became obvious that Dean was walking away with the nomination and EVERY one of our candidates (except Lieberman) started making noise about being anti-war. Vietnam is a very small piece of this (and Gore had a more impressive resume there as well).

It (the salute and the apparent pandering) didn't strengthen a weak position, it just drew attention to it.

And hundreds of thousands of people change their minds both ways every year. To assume that everyone who votes for Gore (or Bush) does so for the same reasons you do makes no sense. Randy Kelley (Mayor of St Paul) would seem to be one (other than Miller).

[Zynx]

23. Kerry's speech had higher viewership than Gore's.

[aquart]

34. I LOVED that line.

Patriotism and military service are NOT the property of the Republicans and you should be ashamed for implying it.

[Lithos]

8. True

I suspect again there is a flaw in their methodology. One flaw I saw for the longest time in many polls was the control statement "who did you vote for in 2000" which almost always showed a Bush lead over 50%.

L-

[Frodo]

11. That's not uncommon.

Almost every presidential poll of "who DID you vote for" shows a bump for the eventual "winner". People do the same thing with the Super Bowl ("who did you bet on" outpolls the actual betting results when asked AFTER the game).

[GaryL]

28. Right!

I noticed that too. I've been looking for the breakdown of these results but I can't find them anywhere. Condering the way CNN has been trying to out Faux FNN lately, this is no surprise.

[formernaderite]

31. It's not a mistake...people actually lie...

... a poll right after the 2000 election showed more people claiming they voted for Bush than actually did. There's a strange habit some people have, they are always for the perceived winner. Polling will of course also showcase liars.

[GaryL]

44. Pollsters should know this.

A good poll will out this based on the questions asked. To simply dismiss this as "people lie" is BS. It points out bad polling methodology. I used to work with folks that composed these things and I remember one of my coworkers getting chewed out because he didn't account for this and is f***ed up our results.

[fearnobush]

12. More CNN attempts to kill the challanger. CNN loves Bush - Trust me.

My neighbor who works for CNN suggests viewing the Sludge Report for balanced online news source. CNN is indeed a right wing outfit.

"USA TODAY extended its survey Sunday night and tonight to get a fuller picture of what's happening with the electorate."

[SalParadise]

7. I was just looking at this -

I'm sure lots of people are going to post that this is a bs right-wing-media organization skewed poll...and that may be the case.

What interests me about it is that it's SO different than the newsweek poll from friday (which had Kerry in a 7-point lead). Also, since when has nader been so low (2%)? I find it really hard to believe that any nader voters went over to bush.

Regardless, any poll taken before the debates (at the very least) is pretty much meaningless in this race (since it's so close).

I hope folks here don't start flipping out about this & give the freepers something to be smug about until the next poll comes out.

[formernaderite]

19. This poll was a weekend poll....

...let's wait and see.

[nofurylike]

54. absolutely, SalParadise. let it motivate us all the more! n/t

[Davis_X_Machina]

10. 'Likely' usually means a small (2%) pro-Pug tilt.

I'd like a look at the internals.

It would not be difficult to picture a situation where the Bush 'bounce' consists of a greater lead in states he's already carrying, as Mr. and Mrs. Whitebread look at the multi-culti extravaganza in Boston and say to each other: 'Damn, Lois, look at all that race-mixing! Half of them are probably homos! And except for Willie, not a decent song all night! Where are they taking the country?'

[study_war_no_more]

72. gay marraige for sure and

that negro Al Sharpton asking for a mule.

[liveoaktx]

13. IF it is so that this is the first time no large bump, it has to be

at least largely because for the first time ALSO in television history, the PUBLIC airwaves fell down off their job of INFORMING the public and didn't show the convention. Would it have hurt this country for the PUBLIC airwaves to show some respect for the dignity of the high office by foregoing reality tv for 4 days?

And what was left (sans Cspan-I don't even include PBS because it ALSO appeared to have talking heads doing commentary)? Republican Noise machine broadcasts on cable where the speeches were not shown or talked over.

[RoyGBiv]

14. Bizarre...

Even Rasmussen's tracking poll, which is consistently favorable to Bush, has Kerry with a 4-point lead as of today.

[Zynx]

16. Rasmussen, to his credit, has had fairly stable numbers.

[salin]

15. Perhaps the tv media decision to only have commentators that

are right wing pundits cover and respond to the convention.... worked out the way Rove wanted.

[Codicil04]

18. I think the 'salute' thing didn't work

I cringed when I saw it. I thought it looked contrived. Whoever thought of the Boston Harbor crossing thing and then the salute...ought to be fired.

[still_one]

20. Bull

every other poll contradicts this one

Gallop also failed in the 2000 election

[Zynx]

21. Really badly up until the last day.

Even there, they were off a bit. A week before they had Bush up by 13 points.

[Democat]

24. First post, Kerry bashing, sounds right

:)

[mitchtv]

43. sniff sniff, what is that I smell

is it Pizza? guess what brand?

[mazzarro]

25. Contrived to you and should be fired 'cause YOU don't like it!

Pure and unadulterated BS! CNN/Gallup poll does not constitute the only method of determining the receptivity of the Kerry/Edward's message. So spare us your displeasure of the salute!

[Nashyra]

27. Bullshit

Kerry/Edwards di so damn well they had to get them off the front page IE: TERROR ALERT Oh and guess what 10 to 1 we can't protest at the convention, toooooo dangerous.

[truthisfreedom]

29. the salute was great. Kerry knows how to give one. bush looks like a goof.

[leftchick]

35. I think the whole Kerry presentation was great....

wtf is the cringing about? Perhaps you listen too much to the GOP commentators on Faux?

[Codicil04]

40. I cringed because it's too much

He can't say anything with out a reference to Viet Nam. He doesn't have to do this. He doesn't have to keep proving he was a soldier and can be trusted to be commander-in-chief. The impression being given is that he doesn't believe it himself, that he's trying to hard.

[leftchick]

42. you are the only person I have ever heard have that impression...

He is a war hero running againt an aWol* loser. Why not use it? It works for me and apparently LOTS of other voters.

[customerserviceguy]

64. Unfortunately

he's a war hero of a war that most Americans don't remember fondly. John Kerry's noble service does not make the Vietnam war noble. It's a paradox, but it reflects the reason why most of us who ARE uncomfortable with the constant Vietnam references suspect it's the wrong approach to emphasize.

There's so much else to show about the Kerry record! Why spend so much precious camera time on just this? How about pumping Kerry's record of cutting military waste, so that our defense dollars go to effective strategies for keeping America safe?

[mitchtv]

45. hahahahaha Kerry is trying to hard?

at least he knows WTF he's doing.

[WillyT]

50. Are You Gonna Be OK ??? - You Seem To Have UCS !!!

Uncontrollable Cringing Syndrome

Don't be scared :scared: , it's gonna be alright.

BTW - Welcome to DU!!!

:toast:

[study_war_no_more]

73. the only part i dint like was the chanting

it sounded kinda lame, Kerry is not a rapper.

[nofurylike]

55. too many voters decide by believing skewed polls. cringe. and write. n/t

[Turbo]

46. Why the salute?

Re: the salute. "Reporting for Duty."

I agree, the salute was kinda third grade-ish and Made JK look overly exploitive of his Vietnam service.

And I never liked that word "duty" anyway. It always reminds me of dog doodie or cat doodie.

He should have just played it straight, like the upstanding man everyone knows he is.

[Codicil04]

51. Exactly.

well said.

[nofurylike]

56. i'm anti-war, but i got the huge significance of his salute:

serving all of us

versus * serving 1% of the country, and all of us serving them too.

have you ever seen * face his duty? it comes with asking to be elected by us. JK knows that and shows he knows it.


peace

[childslibrarian]

61. I agree with your analysis

I felt Kerry was making the point that he was ready to serve EVERYONE instead of Repub oil executives....

[John_H]

76. Classic teethdropper thought process.

Duty sounds like doodie so I don't like it. LOL!!

[VolcanoJen]

26. On Friday's "Inside Politics," Bill Schneider said to pay no attention...

... to any poll that comes out before Monday, in reference to determining anything accurate about Kerry's post-convention "bounce."

That's especially weird, because, well, isn't this Bill Schneider's poll? Released on Sunday?

I'm confused... :-)

Again, I think this whole "bounce" notion is overhyped, and shows how much the media relies on conventional wisdom, rather than recognizing the actual dynamic of this election, which looks to be like no other in our history.

This addiction to CW is going to bite them all in the ass on November 2.

[mountainvue]

30. Lying whores.

[struggle4progress]

32. Kerry Stable, Bush Down After Convention

(CPOD) Jul. 31, 2004 – The Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards holds the lead in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Zogby America. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic challengers, while 43 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. Eight per cent of respondents are undecided. <snip>
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3611


Post-Convention Poll Gives Kerry Small Bounce

(CPOD) Aug. 1, 2004 – The Democratic ticket of Massachusetts senator John Kerry and North Carolina senator John Edwards narrowly extended its national advantage in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Princeton Survey Research Associates released by Newsweek. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democrats, while 42 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.
Three per cent of respondents would support independent candidate Ralph Nader and vice-presidential contender Peter Camejo, while six per cent are undecided.
<snip>

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3619


Holmes: 10 reasons Kerry will win
By Rick Holmes / Opinion Editor
Sunday, August 1, 2004

... I'm not sure I believe the polls. I can think of lots of people who voted for Bush last time around and won't repeat that mistake .... But I'm not sure I can name a single person who voted for Gore in 2000 who'll vote for Bush this time.

... A half-million Arab-Americans are expected to vote in .. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida .... To Bush and his allies, research on embryonic stem cells is a theological question. For millions of Americans of all political stripes, it's as personal as the disease eating away at their loved ones .... Stern has declared war on Bush -- and his ratings are going up .... An estimated 1.1 million gay Americans voted for Bush in 2000 .... Democrats are challenging Ralph at every turn .... A galaxy of rock stars .. will .. mobilize youth voters against Bush ....

... for now, it looks like Kerry's race to win, and it may not even be close.

http://www.metrowestdailynews.com/columnists/view.bg?articleid=74425


Having the wisdom and courage to run scared
By C. Fraser Smith
Originally published August 1, 2004

<snip>
Don't underestimate the skill and determination of the Republicans. They're disciplined. They're focused. They've got a lot to lose. You may feel like the major issues are breaking your way, he said, but don't think you're not in for a fight.
Earlier in the week, Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin, Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski and just about every other Democratic lawmaker delivered a version of the same caution.
<snip>

Was that the most amazing and unexpected message of this year's Democratic convention? How could Democrats need such a warning? Republicans have been outmaneuvering them for some time, and they are facing a determined incumbent president in George W. Bush.
<snip>

http://www.metrowestdailynews.com/columnists/view.bg?articleid=74425

[ailsagirl]

33. USA Today Poll

I gotta say, I think it's a bunch of crap. And I'm not surprised, frankly. Doesn't everyone know that mainstream news is heavily controlled by the spooks at the top? And USA Today isn't exactly credible to begin with.

Don't pay any attention-- it's garbage. Take a look at this article:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849
("Latest Zogby Poll Shows Bush in Deep Trouble")

ailsagirl

[BeatleBoot]

39. Thanks for the Pick Me Up!

You made my day.

[psychopomp]

57. That makes two of us

The Zogby piece is the first shovel of dirt on the Bushco chances this time around.

[nofurylike]

52. thank you for this info! please write it to usa today and CNN?

http://www.usatoday.com/marketing/feedback/feedback-online.aspx?type=18

http://www.cnn.com/feedback/dotcom/

undecided voters do read those polls, and far too many vote based on them. corrections and comments that they are biased can help.

thank you!


peace!

[Democat]

37. Kerry is beating Bush with registered voters in this poll, right?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2131858

Why are they picking the "likely voters" angle, the one that makes Kerry look bad, as the focus of the media attention instead of using registered voters?

[Zynx]

38. Yeah. Registered voters are the larger group.

Likely can be anything.

[nofurylike]

47. if we all go to this thread

this outstanding gift of massive labor given to us all by calimary:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=106&topic_id=8816

and WRITE LETTERS...

for instance, right now, to usa today at:
feedback form -
http://www.usatoday.com/marketing/feedback/feedback-online.aspx?type=18

or
mailto: [e-mail]

write anything. even one sentence in some way saying "consider the source" and "i have seen otherwise..."
if you have stat's, use the subject line setting "correction"

readers are influenced by those media biases and lies. letters to the editor and op/eds educate people.
that abovementioned amazing thread also has excellent information on how to write those longer letters. please check it out and please everyone write just one letter to some medium each day. it has a remarkable effect!

these folks are actually calling us out. during same-sex marriage struggles, they kept taunting us with the sheer number of fundies they were hearing from in repetitive single-thought letters, versus all of us writing thoughtful, informative letters, writing our hearts out.

write. write anything that comes to mind.
best of all, write thank yous to positive pieces. and especially write "thank you for (for showing the courage and integrity of) engaging on this issue, now here is my take on it" letters.

as they said about Dean when they were slammin him, he hadn't stroked or massaged them enough.

maybe stroke them egos. your call on that, of course. can be revolting.....

thank you!


peace!

[Yavin4]

49. There's A Simple Explantion For This

Yes, this poll could indeed be correct. Why? Because before going into the convention, there were few undecideds. Most polls have shown that support for both candidates are pretty well set in stone. Hence, there was very little chance for a huge bounce for Kerry. What Kerry had to do in his convention was to make a compelling argument that he and his party could indeed run the government, harden his own support, and make strong in-roads to the undecideds and the swing voters. He successfully did all of that.

Folks, this is going to be a very, very close election, and turnout will be the key.

[nofurylike]

53. that's a good point, Yavin4. must get voters to vote!

in that way, these slanted polls might nudge anyone feeling like singular votes couldn't make a difference.


peace!

[Clyde39]

58. Turnout AND trustworthy voting machines

After watching Bill Moyers' story about Florida and the continued manipulation going on there, I can't help but worry!

[SalParadise]

59. Oh yeah - one other thing

bush didn't get 50% of the vote in the election - he's done a shit job since then.

This poll is meaningless.

[txdude10]

60. Latest Newsweek Poll has a different result

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040731/nysa010a_3.html

One of these polls must be way off. My guess is that it is USATODAY/CNN/Gallup poll.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

62. Well, even the Fox News Poll gives Kerry a slight edge!

Let's remember something: Gallup = GOP Polster!!!

[agincourt]

63. I'm not worried,

these polls are always fickle for bush. What matters is that Kerry-Edwards don't get down by much after the GOPig convention and that the votes are counted.

[robo]

65. Poll

They can all stick their polls , I'm voting for Kerry no Matter what !!!!!!!! It's just Repubs trying to bring you down and stop you from talking to people about how Kerry's a 100% better than bush.

[daleo]

66. Polls always seem to be skewed rightwards before the election, nowadays

The same thing happened in the Canadian election, with the polls claiming a tie between Conservatives and Liberals a couple days before the vote. Then, the Liberals defeated the Conservatives by a significant margin. The pollsters came out of the woodwork, offering reasons why they were so wrong. They wouldn't admit the obvious one, which was that they were shilling for the right wing all along.

[magnolia]

69. That's interesting....

...and makes perfect sense. If the poll numbers ran even, the Liberals probably worked even harder for their candidate...thus getting him that significant lead.

Let them skew the polls all they want. At least it will keep us working hard instead of becoming complacent.

[Jack Rabbit]

67. Are they polling voters or Diebold machines?

Just wondering.

[scarface2004]

68. need a state by state breakdown...

everything else is totally meaningless!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tight_rope]

70. I never believe polls from Repukes...they all lie!

[study_war_no_more]

71. among likely voters??

I guess that explains why they skipped the poor the disenfranchised the Unions and the democrats hahahahahaha. Keep dreaming prom queeens we got a surprize for you.

[alfredo]

74. One poll doesn't tell the story. Some have Kerry Edwards

winning, some have them losing. Let's not get upset or over confident. Just get to work.

Kerry can't win without our hard work. Get out there and spread the word.

[Swamp Rat]

75. USA TODAY=toilet paper

... no, very very BAD toilet paper, unless you like a blue butt.

edit: :hurts: