U.S. Leading Index Increases Again (13th out of 14 months up-so 7/03 boom?

[papau]

U.S. Leading Index Increases Again

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/press.cfm?press_id=2415

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in May.

The leading index increased again in May, and the increases in recent months have continued to be widespread. May's 0.5 percent increase keeps the current growth rate of the leading index in the 3.5 to 4.5 percent range (annual rate), about the same as the approximately 4.5 percent growth rate since the low in March 2003.
<snip>

The pickup in the growth rate of the leading index last year signaled stronger economic growth, and correspondingly, real GDP has increased at a 5.0 to 5.5 percent annual rate since the middle of last year. The current 3.5 to 4.5 percent growth rate of the leading index is signaling the continuation of this relatively strong rate of economic growth in the near term.

Leading Indicators. Eight of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors - beginning with the largest positive contributor – were average weekly manufacturing hours, real money supply*, interest rate spread, vendor performance, building permits, manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials*, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor – were index of consumer expectations and stock prices.<snip>

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=716&e=6&u=/ap/20040617/ap_on_bi_ge/leading_indicators

Leading Indicators Up More Than Expected

EILEEN ALT POWELL, AP Business Writer

NEW YORK - A closely watched gauge of future economic activity rose a stronger-than-expected 0.5 percent in May, suggesting that the U.S. economy will continue sturdy expansion through the summer.

<snip>Analysts had been expecting an increase of 0.4 percent in May.

The index is closely watched because it is designed to predict the economy's path in the next three to six months. <snip>

[leftyandproud]

1. urg

I remember when bush predicted 2 million jobs this year...everyone thought it was BS, me included, but according to the stats, they have already created a million in the past 6 months...I know bush had nada to do with it...just part of the typical post recession bounce...but still, this will make it difficult for kerry to sell a different economic plan..

[htuttle]

2. Many of those jobs don't even exist

IIRC, they changed how they calculate job creation to make it more of an estimate based on other indicators than an actual count. It's been discussed in a number of threads in LBN, GD and the Economics forum here. Many of those 1,000,000 jobs were 'estimated', ie., imaginary.

In any case, I'm sure that I'll be able to take these good economic numbers to my landlord and get him to forgive a month's worth of rent since the economy is so obviously recovering, right? No? Oh. Then it's not good for much, is it?

:shrug:

[Beetwasher]

3. Those Job Numbers Are As Reliable As The Terrorism Numbers

n/t

[mulethree]

5. same group has a help-wanted index which is down ?? EOM

[MasonJar]

4. Many of the others are people who had to take parttime jobs

with no benefits, which is the kind of work corporations are choosing these days.

[xchrom]

6. while i'm sure the economy is doing better

what i find more interesting are the other numbers -- the ones they don't tell you.
the fact that they don't actually count the number of people employed, the real numbers of new jobs created and the kinds of jobs, the number of people who aren't looking, the number of people in prison, etc.
the economy is not healthy for all kinds of reasons -- but there will still be forward momentum -- it's just not the whole story.

[74dodgedart]

Run huge deficits, War time production, massive tax cuts, lowest interest

rates in years. Things were bound to pick up sooner or later.

The problem is: whose going to pay for all of this ?

[74dodgedart]

7. Run huge deficits, War time production, massive tax cuts, lowest interest

rates in years. Things were bound to pick up sooner or later.

The problem is: whose going to pay for all of this ?

[74dodgedart]

8. Run huge deficits, War time production, massive tax cuts, lowest interest

rates in years. Things were bound to pick up sooner or later.

The problem is: whose going to pay for all of this ?

[fob]

9. Hey, I think your tranny is slipping!

Shift into neutral, punch it and slam it back into drive!

[74dodgedart]

10. What makes you say that

[74dodgedart]

11. What makes you say that

[74dodgedart]

12. What makes you say that

[Media_Lies_Daily]

13. Look around you....does ANYTHING about the economy look better to you?