Canada's Liberals Trail Conservatives in Daily Poll

[Minstrel Boy]

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's Conservative Party passed the governing Liberal Party in popularity over the weekend, the latest daily election poll by Toronto-based SES Research showed.

Stephen Harper's Conservatives were the choice of 34 percent of 600 potential voters surveyed June 4-6, compared with 32 percent for the Liberals, SES said in a press release. The poll's margin of error is 4.1 percentage points.

...

Martin's Liberals started the campaign with a 13-point lead over the Conservatives, according to SES's first poll on May 25, two days after Martin dissolved Parliament for the race. The Conservatives have picked up 6 points from May 25, while the Liberals have fallen 9 points.

In third place is the socialist New Democratic Party, with 20 percent support, a 2-point gain from the start of the campaign SES said. Thirteen percent of those polled picked NDP leader Jack Layton as the candidate who would be the best prime minister, while 22 percent said they weren't sure who was the best person to lead the country.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=a5cRnFApe.ec&refer=canada

Link to the poll:

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20June%207E.pdf

Interesting times, and I don't mean that in a bad way. The Conservatives stand no chance of forming a majority government - that would require them winning seats in Quebec and a collapse of the NDP vote. But they have no presence in Quebec, and the NDP vote is holding and growing. I would rather have a Conservative minority than another Liberal majority.

The electorate is in an Anybody-but-Martin mood, but it's not voting for the Conservatives. A good opportunity to grow the true left vote. If the Liberals are headed for a collapse, the NDP could rise as the national alternative to the Conservatives. That has to happen, if the NDP is ever to form a federal government.

[SidDithers]

1. I don't want Stephen Harper representing Canada ...

Hopefully the Liberals and the NDP will have enough seats between them to form a coalition government. I'm really uncomfortable about the "new" Conservatives. I don't like their brand of social conservatism and the mantra of "MORE TAX CUTS" is straight out of Mike Harris and George Bush.

I had been planning on voting NDP, becuase I thought my riding was going to go safely Liberal. But I'm seeing way to many Conservative lawn signs around here.

Sid

[Minstrel Boy]

2. What part of the country are you in, Sid?

I think there's something like strategic voting beginning to emerge, but it has an anybody-but-the-Liberals complexion.

I think Harper and the neoConservatives are a menace, and it's good to see that the NDP is making a strategic decision to shift the attack to them this week, but I don't think they have a chance at majority rule, and I don't think they'll scare many people into voting Liberal. Harper simply doesn't appear as scary as Day.

I could live with a minority, because they'd be compelled to govern moderately.

[TrogL]

3. I'd welcome an NDP opposition

Let's really drag the country left.

[CHIMO]

5. A Possible Scenario

For 4 years of trouble. Conservative and bloc vote to bring in fixed election dates. Thus a defeat in the house doesn't mean another election. They just go on and on and on and ....
It meets the Bloc's objective and the Conservatives' objectives.

[Lisa]

10. actually, I think a non-confidence motion would still work ...

From what I've heard, talking to lawyers I know, they couldn't keep a government in office if it had lost a non-confidence vote. (For the BC provincial situation anyway -- they're pretty sure it would be the same for the feds.)

[CHIMO]

15. I Stand Corrected

Article from June 1, 2004

Ontario goes to polls on Oct. 4, 2007

In the case of a minority government or for other reason that a government were defeated on a confidence motion, the Lieutenant Governor could call an election immediately.


I assume that this would be the same for the federal government.

[SidDithers]

6. 'Burbs west of Toronto.

We've been safely Liberal for the last few elections, but I'm getting a different feel from this one. I'm seeing Consevative signs outnumbering Liberal signs by 3 or 4 to 1.

I hope to see the NDP make big pick-ups, but I don't think it will happen in my riding. Oakville has been Conservative provincially for a long time - only just electing a Liberal in an open seat.

I think there's alot of anger at the Provincial Libs that's carrying over to Mr. Martin. Bad timing for the provincial budget from Dalton McGuinty.

Sid

[Minstrel Boy]

7. With unpopular provincial governments in the three largest provinces,

Martin couldn't have picked a worse time. Unless, maybe, if he waited even longer. Dissatisfaction and hunger for change might have grown, especially if there are more revelations to come from the ad scandal.

[cestmoi]

19. I don't think Martin has political smarts & he has lousy advisers.

What do all the misstep's say about the vaunted Earnscliffe group? I'd like to know of they were behind a June election call. Martin should fire all his advisers and go crawling to Chretien advisers who seem at least to have political acumen. Martin's advisers are all idiots. Who advised him to parachute candidates into ridings? And what could have been more stupid? I will faint if any of his hand picked candidates win in BC. I will literally faint.

[TO Kid]

21. He was doomed either way

The main reason he called the election now was to shut down the Adscam inquiry. If he waited until this fall the investigation would have been complete and he'd really be screwed.

[SidDithers]

23. I think there is also some residual dislike of Martin...

and the perception that Chretien was forced out. Ol' Jean was a very popular PM, regardless of what you thought of his policies. I think alot of Canadians - including me - were turned off by the backroom squabbling that has been going on for the last 2 years.

That's alot of negatives adding up agains Mr. Martin.

Sid

[cestmoi]

4. Another nervous canuck thinking of voting Liberal rather than

NDP. I am in Toronto and I was set to vote NDP but now looking at the polling I'm seriously nervous about Harper and thinking of doing the unthinkable and vote Liberal. This election is becoming unbearable.

[Minstrel Boy]

9. If you're in a riding that is likely to go either Liberal or NDP,

I'd suggest you vote your conscience, rather than your fear.

[TO Kid]

12. Best to look at the local candidates

In my riding the incumbent is a lib who is totally useless and the NDP candidate is invisible- I haven't seen any NDP signs and don't even know if they have a candidate yet. Layton is a fool to run against Dennis Mills he's the only Liberal backbencher who has ever done anything for his constituents and has been good for the city. As for Trinity-Spadina, I hope Olivia Chow wins because if she does she'll be gone from city council.

[Frederic Bastiat]

31. I've been telling NDPers for months

What did you all expect from constantly attacking Liberals? An NDP-led government? Martin has been taking shots on three fronts while the other candidates have not. You cheered with every hit Team Martin took and congratulated yourself on the NDP mini-surge.

With the Bloc and Conservatives in secret agreement, I hope you enjoy Konservative/Alliance Kanada lol

[Minstrel Boy]

32. And I've been telling Liberals for years

we're not Liberals! :evilgrin:

We're bent on consigning the Gritocracy to the dustbin of history.

[cestmoi]

34. As a NDP leaning person I agree in part however Martin's

unbelieveable arrogence provokes contempt. His relience on Earnscliffe provokes contempt. He and his buds at Earnscliffe are smug, they actually believe their own bullsh*t. Which genius decided to parachute Martin's handpicked candidates into ridings? Which decided to to Sgro and McCallum attack Harper in Toronto. This campaign is pathetic, run by rank amateurs with the class and less brains but plenty of ego.

[Markus182]

8. Voting NDP

I am in the Ottawa Centre riding and I'm voting NDP. The man running here, Ed Broadbent, is the former NDP leader and very highly respected. He has a great shot at winning it, especially since there's currently no incumbent.

I have very mixed feelings about the election. I am concerned about the Conservatives forming government because I disagree with them on so many issues. But at the same time, I am disgusted with the Liberal party and I am very much looking forward to seeing them humbled. They have simply been in power too long and it's time for them to get back to their roots before I'll renew my faith in them.

[Minstrel Boy]

30. Hey Markus

Since you're in Ottawa Centre and voting Ed, in case you haven't seen it, here's the wacky "Ed's Back!" campaign ad that was originally shot for 22 Minutes:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1738350

Welcome to DU, too! :hi:

[Markus182]

37. OMG

That was hilarious ... if I had any doubts about voting for him, they're completely gone now! And thanks!

[TO Kid]

11. Like it or not, it's Harper's to lose

Even Liberal voters don't think Martin deserves to be PM, and a lot of the support for both the Liberals and the Tories is very soft. The outcome is almost certain to hinge on their performance in the debates next week- it will take more than a good performance by Martin to win it, the only hope for the Liberals is for Harper to say something seriously stupid during the debate. OTOH, if Harper scores a knockout blow the way Mulroney thrashed Turner in the 1984 debate, the Liberals are toast.

[TrogL]

13. He may very lose it by sticking his foot in it

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=108x114305

I started this thread over in Campaigns because I figured every other forum would be wall-to-wall Raygun.

[cestmoi]

16. I hope you're right. But right now Canucks are so friggin mad

with the Liberals they can't see straight. I would like to see a Liberal minority gov't with the NDP picking up the slack but I wonder if that is even a possibility.

Do you anything about Michael Herle? I am wondering whether it was Herle who advised Sgro and what's his name in Defense to confront Harper when he was in TO. So stoooopidddd. If the Liberals are that desperate shouldn't every one else who despises Harper also be concerned?

[CHIMO]

18. A Similar Opinion

Orchard sitting and watching from the sidelines


Off the highway, at the end of a dirt road, David Orchard sits in his farmhouse and frets about the many signs that point to voters' discontent with the Liberals.

"I'm worried," he said, sipping weak tea at his kitchen table.

"Historically, Canadians vote against a party rather than for somebody, and if there's sufficient anger and disillusionment with the Liberals maybe some of that vote will go to Mr. Harper and company by default, without knowing what they're voting for or what they're getting into.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040605/ELECORCHARD05//?query=orchard

[TO Kid]

17. It would take a huge gaffe

Not merely stick his foot it, he'd have to kick his own teeth in. Even stumbling over the third rail of Canadian politics by answering (or more accurately, non-answering) a question on abortion doesn't seem to have had an effect on his numbers.

Note to you yanks: Abortion is not, and never will be an issue in a Canadian election. A ban on abortion would last about 37.3 seconds before getting shot down in court and every politician outside the Christian Heritage Party knows it.

[daleo]

14. If Harper wins, it's Mulroney all over, but worse

- Back to deficits, and the constant haranguing about it.
- Eventually a constitutional crisis, as the Bloc will take advantage of the conservatives somewhere along the line to come up with a wedge issue.
- Revisit the abortion issue and the capital punishment issue.
- Corruption that will make anything the Liberals have done pale in comparison, as the new Conservatives will be full of opportunists that will see this as their brief main chance.
- Joining in U.S. foreign adventures, should PNAC manage to carry on their merry ways.
- Western alienation, because Alberta will complain either way, and it is worse when Albertans are actually on the inside. The political culture prefers opposition to compromise.

I shudder to think, but as a wise man once said (maybe it was Pearson?), we have to go through a Conservative government every fifteen or twenty years, just for the sake of changing governments.

[TO Kid]

20. Doubtful

Back to deficits, and the constant haranguing about it

Not likely- Mulroney inherited a huge deficit from Trudeau and didn't make a dent in it; he was afraid to cut spending and we had hit the tax wall (the point where tax rate increases cause total revenues to fall). FWIW the annual deficit in 1993 ($40 billion) was roughly equal to the interest on the national debt, IOW had he inherited a balanced budget he theoretically would have retired with one. Today the government has an operating surplus and the national debt is falling, due to the huge health-care spending cuts that Marting made as finance minister. Unlike Mulroney, who attempted to control the deficit by fiddling with minor cuts to program spending, Martin made massive cuts to transfer payments so that the provincial premiers took the flak for the resulting service cuts.

Eventually a constitutional crisis, as the Bloc will take advantage of the conservatives somewhere along the line to come up with a wedge issue.
Possible, but only if anyone is foolish enough to bring up the constitution. The one commonality with Mulroney is that, barring a sweep of Ontario, Harper would only be able to form a government with the support of Québec nationalists. Mulroney lost their support when Meech Lake and Charlottetown failed, so the best way for Harper to stay out of trouble would be to avoid overpromising anything on the constitution.

Revisit the abortion issue and the capital punishment issue.

Capital punishment maybe, but anything on abortion would not get past a private member's bill that would be defeated. Abortion is a non-starter- the best the antis could hope for is to have it delisted from public funding. A ban would never pass the Commons or withstand a court challenge.

Corruption that will make anything the Liberals have done pale in comparison

I doubt it, for the first term at least. Most corruption happens after the first term, when the politicians know their way around. The worst excesses in Ontario (the hydro bosses with the big money) took place after they were in office for six years. In the first term the more likely scenario would be bumbling and failures of oversight due to inexperience.

Joining in U.S. foreign adventures

They couldn't even if they wanted to. Canada's military can barely meet its obligations now, and based on the Conservative platform (increase annual defence spending by $1.2 billion, 20,000 extra soldiers) it will be at least five years before another major deployment can be considered.

Western alienation, because Alberta will complain either way, and it is worse when Albertans are actually on the inside

And how does this differ from Québec? The two referenda were held while Québecers dominated the federal scene.

It might be comforting to imagine that if your guy doesn't win then molten sulfur will fall from the sky and water will flow uphill but life will go on. Different governments have given us different kinds of grief but we'll get by, and in five years' time most of us will be better off than we are today regardless of who wins. The only certainty in this election is that the Liberals will receive a well-deserved ass-kicking and that's a healthy thing.

[daleo]

22. I am afraid I can't agree (if Harper wins)

There will be a deficit within a short time - just look at the Bush experience as the model.

When I say a constitutional crisis, I don't necessarily mean Meech Lake or Charlottetown. But the Bloc (maybe with the P.Q., if they win the provincial election) will maneuver towards another referendum. This may be inevitable in the long run, anyway. A federal government without Quebec participation is bound to create dissension.

I don't know whether Harper himself cares much about abortion or capital punishment, but he will probably throw his supporters a bone on one or the other. Many of the old Alliance/Reform people care much more about these issues than they do about tax cuts, which is Harper's true interest.

Corruption may take a second term, or not, depending on whether the opportunists think they will have a second kick at the cat. Time will tell on that one. Personally, I think most governments have a pretty equal record on corruption, regardless of political orientation.

As for U.S. military adventures, we have enough forces to play a role about equivalent to Australia. That would be enough trouble in my books. Mulroney had troops and planes in the 1991 Gulf war (although I more or less supported that one, on the grounds that aggression had to be stopped).

Western (Alberta) alienation will get worse under Harper, because Albertans will expect the moon and be disappointed with regular politics. After all, Alberta was the starting point for the Reform Party, as a response to the Mulroney government.

I agree that life will go on, whatever happens. There are still many permutations possible, not the least of which is a Liberal/NDP minority government. However, I survived Mulroney, and I guess I could survive Harper. He will have the shortest honeymoon on record, if he does manage to form a government. Oddly, it occurred to me that I could actually benefit quite a bit from his tax cut personally, although I don't like the social fallout.

[cestmoi]

24. Rememer Nader saying there was no difference between

Gore ans Bush. I think now that most everyone would agree that Nader was sadly mistaken.

[Minstrel Boy]

25. Thank God that Canada has a thriving multi-party system.

The NDP currently has the vote of one in five Canadians, and in a minority parliament can, and has, had considerable influence on shaping a progressive socio-economic agenda for the nation.

We needn't vote the lesser of two evils here.

[Lisa]

26. plus the new campaign finance reform laws ...

No truly wasted votes, especially for the smaller parties -- each voter is worth -- well, okay, less than $2 -- but it's something!

[bubblesby2002]

27. I'm in Victoria - Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca

and I'm pretty certain that Keith Martin will more than likely win the riding. But I am more and more impressed with the NDP candidate, the Conservative has been non-existent.

Been a long time NDP'er and I'm hoping we can hold the balance of power with either a Liberal or Conservative (CRAP) minority. We've been there before.

The Conservatives scare the bejeezus out of me. You'd think the most important issues were abortion and gay marriage for chrissake, and sad to say that in some of their tiny little brains they are the most important issues.

[Lisa]

28. Randall Garrison (the NDP guy) is one of my co-workers!

I started teaching at Camosun College last year, and when we had the first faculty meeting Randall was very nice to the newbies. I'm over in Saanich-Gulf Islands but they have had a few joint events (like the Jack Layton rally last week) and Randall has always come over to say hi to me (even though he knows I can't vote for him!).

[Minstrel Boy]

29. And since we're talking about a daily public poll sponsored by CPAC,

aren't you just loving the hell out of CPAC's election coverage?

Maybe I'm a freak, but if I had nothing better to do, I'd love to watch it 24 hours a day, with the in-depth coverage of local battles, the raw footage, the phone-ins, the policy wonks and pundits....

Okay, no maybe about it. I'm a freak.

Good website too, and you can watch online.

http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?dsp=template&act=view3&template_id=46&lang=e

[cestmoi]

33. I like watching CPAC but not during this election.

I know its dumb but I can't stand hearing anything about Harper, if I do I'll explode.

[Minstrel Boy]

35. I just spent fifteen minutes watching tape of

the Christian Heritage Party candidate for York West doing door-to-door canvassing.

It's a sickness.

[cestmoi]

36. What a nightmare. You must be brave to withstand that horror.