Poll shows Bush with large lead over Kerry in Louisiana

[funkybutt]

"The new poll, by independent pollster Multi-Quest of Metairie, gives Bush a 19-point lead over Kerry overall and an overwhelming 63 to 20 percent lead among white votes."

figures :(

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/WWL052704bush.203a93d98.html

While shrub was down here doing the commencement at LSU, he also stopped by a Metairie mansion for a fundraiser. 25K a head and it was packed.

[gasperc]

1. white votes? I guess the rest of the state won't get counted!

the link doesn't work

[David__77]

2. 3-to-1 among whites...

We should remember that this IS the state where the white voters would've put David Duke in the governor's mansion and the US Senate. Things haven't changed much since then. Democrats have to have that good 'ol boy charm (or good 'ol girl) to get elected here. A yankee from MA is not the recipe, unless we can get a high Black turnout and get enough New Orleans progressives to turn out AND demoralize the neo-Confederate base.

[funkybutt]

4. But it doesn't make sense!

We have elected a democratic Governor! Are they just assuming the blacks won't vote in the presidential election?

I'm a New Orleans progressive and this city is about 80% black. I sure hope we get a good turn out in the Crescent City!

[funkybutt]

6. David I was unfortunate enough to grow up in a community

that was very pro duke. *gasp* I once came very close to gettng my ass beat for defacing a duke campaign sign. Thanks god i made it out alive!

[Estel]

3. Very slanted poll...

No way BabyBush has a lead like that in Louisiana. Repugs campaigned very vigorously last year for the governor slot and lost.

[funkybutt]

5. maybe you're right

i mean the poll was done by a Metry company...Metarie is pretty white. Established by white flight. (No offense to anyone here who lives there :) )

[eleonora]

25. I lived there, Metairie's just like Chalmette...white trash YUCK

I prefer uptown :)

[Eye and Monkey]

56. I'll bet they focused their polling on Duke's old district, Old Metairie.

[crossroads]

59. I lived in New Orleans and know Metairie was David Dukes

old territory! He was a self proclaimed Nazi, white supremest KKK leader before he lost a bid for office and made headlines a few years back. Ex Gov. Foster (R) was supposed to have bought Dukes email (voter and supporter list) from him after Duke was sent to jail over some election scandal/deal. Not sure of the details.

Lots of people moved to Metairie years ago to flee the greater N.O. area because of segregation! I predict N.O. will go for Kerry as the area is mainly Democrat. Metairie has voted Repug for a while, but remember, Sen. Mary Landrieu is from N.O., is very popular, and is with Kerry at all Dem. fundraisers there.

Louisiana just elected Gov. Kathleen Blanco, it's first female to the Governors office over a Repug candidate Bobby Jindal, despite the Rep party pouring tons of money into Jindal's campaign. Metairie is a suburb of N.O. full of Repug Dr's., lawyers, oil businessmen and the like who can afford the $25 K price tag for a plate lunch to hear Bush spout his nonsense.
:kick:

[TahitiNut]

23. Telephone polling

Who has the most telephones and is home to answer them?

[wtmusic]

7. $25K a head???

You sure it wasn't $2,500? If a hundred people showed that means he picked up $2.5M in one night...

[funkybutt]

8. I heard it was 25K

but it was just word of mouth. I'll try to confirm that.

[Timefortruth]

10. Even if it were that high there is no saying that everyone

paid full ticket price. When tickets don't move they give them away to make the house full.

[Bandit]

18. That would be illegal even $2500. would be illegal ~only allowed $2000

by law. :shrug:

[truthisfreedom]

44. only if he's raising it for his own campaign. he can raise money for the

GOP in larger amounts.

[Eye and Monkey]

57. NYT Article about his LSU commencement noted the 25k contribs for lunch.

I think it was less if you listened to his babble but didn't stay for lunch.

My bet - it was mostly the few oil-patch folks left in town. Along with real estate developers who want to build on wetlands and avoid the federal regulations.

[lancdem]

9. Check this out

Bush is ahead by 19, but he only gets 48 percent of the vote. That means a huge minority is undecided, and they will go overwhelmingly to Kerry, making the race considerably closer. For Bush to get 48 percent in a state in the deep South is pretty bad, frankly.

[DemMother]

11. Go to their website--it looks very "bush" league

I think I found the right site. It really looks cheap and not very much like a professional political polling operation. And when you click on the link at the bottom you go to one of those domain name sites. I just wonder who hired them.

http://www.multi-questintl.com/mqbody.html

[jobycom]

13. Did you notice this line?

"with creative research methodologies"

Hm.

[jobycom]

12. Someone do the math: Bush gets a 19 point lead amongst 64%

of the population. If traditional patterns hold, Kerry will get an 80 point lead amongst black voters, 32.5%. Who wins?

And factor in the undecideds someone else mentioned above, things look good for Kerry.

[jobycom]

16. Oops, my bad, I misread that.

Thought it said 19 points amongst white voters.

[lakeguy]

22. If you do the math

and assuming Bush gets 3:1 (63 to 20%) of white voters, 20% of black voters AND that 64% of LA is W and 32.5% is B then you get...

White Black Total %
Bush 40.32 6.5 46.82
Kerry 12.8 26 38.8
85.62

With about 14% undecided. To me it looks like Bush is only ahead by 8% but I don't claim to be a statician either. Typically the challenger does better with the undecided vote so Kerry is totally in it:evilgrin:

[TruthIsAll]

54. Wrong. Kerry gets 90% of blacks, and Bush gets ? % white votes

Assume 2/3 of voters are white and Bush gets 75%:
2/3(75%) = 50%

Assume 1/3 are black and Bush gets 10%
1/3(10)%=3.33%

Bush gets 53.33%

Assume Bush gets 66% of white votes.
Bush white votes: 2/3(66%) = 44%
+ black votes = 3.33%

Total Bush 47.33%

KERRY WINS!

[Media_Lies_Daily]

14. Freshly wrapped baloney.

[progressivebydesign]

15. Oh bull!

Considering Bush got a single digit amount of votes from African Americans, I have a hard time believing he would have a 19% lead in that voting group in LA. I could believe that a large number of ignorant whites would vote for him, but why.. now that he's damaged goods.. would he suddenly be polling with such strength in a group that dissed him in the last election. These people are amateurs... another GOP funded poll.

Having said that, Edwards or another VP candidate from the South or even Southwest would be a great complement to Kerry's campaign.

[gratuitous]

17. The Bush campaign is spending quite a bit in Louisiana

His graduation trip to LSU, fundraiser there, and ad buys aren't cheap. That's a lot of money and time the candidate has had to spend in a supposedly safe state.

A little creative work by the Kerry campaign can force Bush to spend even more there, and the more Bush spends in Louisiana, the less he has to spend in real battleground states. This could be a nice little black hole for Bush.

[AndyTiedye]

21. Polling those who are Likely to be Allowed to Vote?

have they contracted with Choicepoint in LA?

[funkybutt]

34. tell me about it

we've been bombarded with anti-kerry ads down here.

It's all BULLSHIT!

[CO Liberal]

19. Wouldn't It Be Funny If LA Was The Only State Pretzelboy Carried???

:-)

[Go Eagles]

20. slanted poll

This poll is garbage considering 35 percent of the state is black and my guess is that 90% of them or more is voting for Kerry.

[funkybutt]

35. if they vote

and THAT is a HUGE issue!

[AspenRose]

24. Florida, Maryland, Louisiana

Heavily populated by blacks....

It's the disenfranchisement tour! Not your granddaddy's poll tax generation, no-siree!

Louisiana demographic data (too much to list here):

http://www.state.la.us/census/2000/plplaces.htm

(When the hispanic vote is approximately 90% for democrats on a consistent basis, I'm sure we'll start seeing attempts at disenfranchisement among the hispanic vote too.)

[JackDragna]

26. This poll is legit.

I live in Baton Rouge and the president never seems to lose the popularity he gained here from his cowboy image and arrogant swagger. We elected a Democratic governor, to be sure, but an outside Democrat, particularly a northern Dem like Kerry, isn't going to get much support here. Kerry's toast here.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

28. Right. Keep believing that.

[JackDragna]

46. I will keep believing it..

..because it's the truth. You live in Louisiana?

[crossroads]

60. I do - and I don't think Bush has it wrapped up!

In Louisiana it ain't over til it's over! I can't find a voter who will admit they are for Bush right now. Most I talk to are ashamed to admit they ever voted for him. Bush could be ahead in Baton Rouge, but the same is not true around N.O.as people are hurting. Metairie and areas of St. Tammany maybe, but not N.O. proper. This poll is slanted and selective IMO.
:kick:

[Lou_C]

33. You call him "The President"?

That's a stretch!

[JackDragna]

47. Well..

..he IS the president of the United States. What should I call him? Edith Bunker?

[funkybutt]

36. That really bums me out

I'd absolutely LOVE for Kerry to win down here

To me, him being a northerner is a non-issue. Maybe him choosing Edwards as his running mate will help :)

[JackDragna]

48. Bums me out, too.

..but the state is probably a Bush winner. I like your name, though. You're named after my favorite jazz/blues bar in New Orleans.

[Claire Beth]

27. ugh! not good. n/t

[Oreegone]

29. BS....I call it.

What a Bullshit poll, and what a Bullshit state Louisiana is never getting a dollar of my money

[Claire Beth]

31. I hear ya! n/t

[AnnInLa]

32. defending Louisiana

It bothers me that, in these forums, every time something bad happens in a state or area, there is always someone who jumps in and "bad mouths" that state, or the people of that state/area, as if that one bad thing defines the whole state. Grow up. Louisiana has many great things going for it, just as every other state does. There are many liberal people here in Louisiana, working our butts off for change, and we don't want to hear people from Oregon, or wherever, denigrating our state. There are a few weird things that go on in Oregon, but I don't assume they represent the whole state. Think before you post.

[funkybutt]

37. I'm with ya

but you can't take it too personally. A lot of that badmouthing was based on fact. Like the David Duke comment...sad but true.

It's a great state, and i love it. NOLA ROCKS!

[stevedeshazer]

49. I agree with you

And I am an Oregonian. Thanks for your work.

[Moloch]

52. Thank You Ann!

I fully believe we WILL carry Louisiana, we just have to work our butts off to make it happen.

[crossroads]

61. Hear Hear! Thank you!

Welcome to DU! :hi: I hail from La. and IMO you are right!

[Jacobin]

39. Premature Excoriation

Ain't over dude.

Not by a long shot.

Polling suburban whites in many parts of the country will give you screwed up numbers.

:-)

[The_Casual_Observer]

30. So who is fooled by this obvious shill redneck scam?

Metairie is the HQ town for the KKK. I am surprised that they didn't just go ahead and claim a 60 point lead.

[Jacobin]

38. They just shipped a zillion soldiers from Fort Polk

or are about to. Their destiny will have an effect on polls later this year.

In the rural areas here, its all Hannity and Rush 24/7. Bible belt in the north of the state will be Bush solidly. They love that rapture shit and they love blowin up brown people.

African Americans will give Bush 8% tops.

South Louisiana will go Kerry. Count on it. We have a Dem governor and two dem senators, although they are usually right of center on votes.

Don't count Louisiana out.

Do not count Louisiana out.

I've lived here for over 40 years. It's fickle and not homogenized with the rest of the country.

Oh, and Kerry can speak French here if he wants to, at least in South Louisiana. They'll eat it up.

[Barkley]

40. What kinda voting machines/ ballots does LA have?

This may be pre-election propaganda that can be later used to
justify and cover up electorial abuses.

[crossroads]

62. Computerized machines...

:eyes:

[indepat]

41. Thankfully we got out of there in '66

[Massacure]

42. What happens

If Kerry nominates a southern democrat for Vice President? How would that effect his support there?

[Moloch]

43. Hmmm why is it always the states with the worst

schools that want to vote for shrub..

[bermudat]

45. States with the worst schools have the least educated populace.

And it takes someone stupid to vote for Bush. That is why bush et al is pushing No Child Left Behind. Gut the public school educational system, so all children become drooling automatons for the corporations. And vote republican.

[SOS]

50. Who cares?

2000 Louisiana results:

Bush: 924,670 53%
Gore: 789,837 45%

Kerry won't carry LA, he probably won't even campaign there.

Bush gets 9 electoral votes. :boring:

Very likely that Bush loses Ohio or Florida - Kerry wins!

[Moloch]

53. erm Louisiana went for Clinton twice..

And those 9 electoral votes could mean the difference between a Kerry whitehouse and the sad state of affairs we have now.

[SOS]

55. True

In 92 Perot was a big factor:

815,971 Clinton
733,386 Bush
211,478 Perot

Less so in 96:

927,837 Clinton
712,586 Dole
123.293 Perot

The Perot factor plus Clinton being from neighboring Arkansas had an impact. In 2004, I don't think a Senator from Massachusetts has any chance at picking up those 9 votes.

[Generator]

51. Now I understand the need for the drive through Daiquiri bars

(sorry just having a flashback from vacation of '93)

But what's with all the Francais speakin'? Does Chimpy know? New Orleans didn't go for dat Freedom Fries thang at all.

[Zynx]

58. That doesn't square with any other LA poll I have seen.