Poll shows about-face by Californians about war

[UpInArms]

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20040525-9999-1n25field.html

In a dramatic reversal of opinion, Californians have turned strongly against the war in Iraq over the past year, according to a new Field Poll.

At the outset of the war in Iraq, Californians said they believed it was worth the loss of American lives and other costs, 58 percent to 35 percent. Now, the opposition is more than 2-to-1, 63 percent to 31 percent.

"In 13 months, the public has totally changed its view of U.S. involvement in Iraq," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the nonpartisan Field Poll. "And it's very broad-based. It cuts across all regions of the state and nearly all demographic groups."

While 63 percent of the 514 adult Californians interviewed between Tuesday and Sunday said they now oppose the Iraq war, 60 percent of the registered voters said the war is not worth it.

<snip>

The poll does not bode well for President Bush's uphill prospects for carrying California in the November election.

...more...

[DarkPhenyx]

1. 514 adults you say.

Not exactly a huge statistical base to pull from.

[Barkley]

11. You've got a point!

The margin of error is 5% many opinion polls use a 3% error in which case a larger sample would be needed.

[DarkPhenyx]

16. Particularly for a state the size of CA.

I'm thinking, at a minimum, a sample size four times this would be needed. Minimum.

[central scrutinizer]

18. not true

the size of the population is irrelevant. As long as the sample was randomly selected and the questions were not biased, 500 people will produce results with the claimed margin of error. To get to a margin of error of plus/minus 3 percent with 95% confidence, just over 1000 people are needed.

[DarkPhenyx]

21. I'm a scientist. I use population sampling in my experiments.

Unfortunately w/o a large enough population, no matter how random your selection is, your results are invalid.

[alarcojon]

25. But national polls typically use 800-1000

So why 2000 for Cali?

I agree with you that the sample size is small - hence the larger than usual 5% margin of error. Still, the results are pretty strongly against the war, even thinking of the results as ranges of values.

[dusty64]

2. I didn't believe the numbers

from the first poll anyhow.

[Judi Lynn]

3. Excellent. They appeared to think they were sewing it up when they

got the previous legit governor recalled and the Gropenfuhrer installed.

You remember not long after Schwarzenegger was "elected," _Bush made a point of visiting California, as if to "mark it" for the election. It appeared they were almost crowing about their chances in California for quite a while.

Thanks for this good morning news, UpInArms!

[UpInArms]

5. I remember that "visit"

I made me want to :puke:

It was like watching dogs pee all over a fire hydrant.

[Judi Lynn]

7. That's exactly what I thought, also. Accurate image. n/t

[Arugula Latte]

9. Funny how that talk has dropped off...

now that the voting machines are going to be decertified!

No Diebold -- No Republican takeover of Cali.

[loudsue]

14. THAT, my friend, is the ENTIRE point: Diebold is decertified there.

Once ANY State stops the fraudulent voting machines, you're going to see the "press" talking down bush's chances in that state, because you KNOW that people all over this country are fed up with him. This is why CNN was calling the state for the gropernator 2 weeks BEFORE the recall. And this is also why they've been trying to convince us that bush and Kerry are running "neck 'n neck".

Once those black boxes have to be accountable to WE THE PEOPLE, by LAW, you're going to start hearing the "real" numbers from the talking heads.

This is WHY, DUers, we HAVE GOT TO get active....each and every one of us; and we have to do it NOW!! It will do no good to wait until 2 weeks before the election.

We have to work state by state, county by county. But we ALSO need to work at the federal level, because, like HAVA, the national congress can force a certain level of accountability that even FLORIDA can't change.

If (rhetorical "if") Florida, which has now said that a paper ballot is illegal, suddenly had to provide an auditable paper trail and spot audits to their precincts, I PROMISE you the news coming out of Florida would suddenly show "polls" that don't favor bush.

THE FRAUDULENT VOTING MACHINES ARE THE KEY to whether bush, and the rest of the republicans, are going to be re-elected in November.

Please! Go to www.verifiedvoting.org and to www.blackboxvoting.org and SIGN UP, and get your talking points and your activism support information, and go after your counties, states, and the U.S. congress like your life depends on it.....because, ultimately, it does.

:kick::kick::kick::kick::kick:

[AndyTiedye]

19. Not Over Yet

The Repub counties are still going to try to use the Diebold Repub Electing Machinez.
They will take it to the Supreme Court if they have to.
Those counties would go for Bush* anyway, but if they go 99% for Bush* we're in trouble.

[webtrainer]

12. IIRC, Ahnold hasn't been out front in his support . . .

of Bush. I think the Guvernator knows * is a loser.

[truthisfreedom]

4. man, rove's mind is squirmin' like a toad. no matter what he has bush say

or do he just doesn't seem to be able to inspire that terrah attack they need so badly to alter bush's numbers.

[bluestateguy]

6. Cool

I always expected Kerry to win CA, but it would be nice if he had such a cuhsion there that he did not have to campaign there. It's expensive.

[David__77]

8. I'm still proud of my state.

...despite being hoodwinked by a "liberal" Republican for governor.

[denverbill]

10. 30% of Americans are pathetic.

If, and that's a big IF, this poll is accurate, it means the 30% of the California population is fucking clueless. The support the war til the going gets tough, then they flip-flop and oppose it. WTF does that mean? Are they going to flip-flop again a month from now and support it again? Will Shrub convince them we need to attack Syria or Iran next?

I can see maybe 5-10% of people having such lightly held opinions that they can't make up their minds, but how the hell can a third of the population be so easily swayed? It's no wonder that charlatans like Bush can get elected.

[Barkley]

13. I wish they all could beat California

... polls.

I think the combination of high and rising gas prices along with a significant number of casualties coming from California has helped turn the tide.

And of course the folks at ANSWER have organized numerous large public demonstrations that helped raise the awareness of what's going on in Iraq.

The state government has been grappling with record level budget deficits in recent years by cutting back spending on education and raising the price of tuition.

There's no extra money for education we're told but we send billions to Iraq with obscene results.

Some Californians say if Kerry is leading Bush by a large margin they will vote for Nader; assuming Kerry will carry the state.

I understand their sentiments.

However, I'm voting for Kerry because I want a biggest landslide against Bush in the history of California and the USA.

[underpants]

15. I'm sick of hearing about how 60+% supported the war

Nationally or in California. I have heard this at least two times come out of Russert's mouth as well as others-NO WE DIDN'T!

The polls clearly showed that BEFORE the war 60-70% said DON'T GO IT ALONE GET INTERNATIONAL HELP

Now once the war started people were asked "Do you support the war?" and of course 60-70% said they did not wanting to sound like the hoped illwill towards the troops.

Most people did not support the war until AFTER it started. This is revisionist history.

[AlCzervik]

17. I live in a republican stronghold area of northern california

and support is almost nil for the war now.

[abelenkpe]

23. y'know

I worked in SF at a studio up there on a project for a little over a year and was shocked to discover how conservative people were up there in the towns north of the city. My Dad had gone to Berkley in the 60's and always told me the area was so liberal.
I'm glad to see people are coming around to the realization that this war is bogus.

[Rocket Science]

20. That's 60%, Sen. Feinstein!

The poll doesn't bode well for Dianne Feinstein either.

[newyawker99]

26. Hi Rocket Science!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[llmart]

22. Not so long ago...

the Repugs were crowing that they were going to sweep all 50 states. Anyone else remember that? I hope it's a landslide victory for Kerry so I can break out my champagne that I've been saving. I also can't wait to buy some of those big ticket items I refused to purchase for the past 3-1/2 years so that I could do my little bit to bring the economy down. When Kerry is elected I plan on resuming some spending to help the economy under his administration.

[abelenkpe]

24. you're assuming

that the election isn't rigged. I believe that the majority will vote against Bush, just have my doubts that the results will reflect that.