OHIO POLL: Kerry 50 - Bush 43

[StephNW4Clark]

All I got to say is - It's about fucking time :)

John Kerry leads George W. Bush among likely voters in Ohio according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 49% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 42% say they would vote for Bush.

A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 7% of likely voters are undecided.

In a race between just Kerry and Bush, Kerry is at 50%, Bush is at 43%, and 7% are undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Ohio. Of the 600 likely voters, 38% consider themselves to be Republicans, 40% consider themselves to be Democrats, and 22% consider themselves to be independents. The interviews were conducted May 10 through 12, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ohg/

[soleft]

1. This parrallels the Gallup and Pew Polls

Today on Al Franken, his interviewee said the general election usually trends along the job approval numbers, Bush is at 43,44, and that means he will lose.

[VolcanoJen]

2. YES!!! Go Buckeyes!!!!!!

I have personally registered 11 brand-new Kerry Voters in the past two weeks, all of whom live in my beloved Buckeye State. I'm not stopping, either.

Battleground State DUers... become a deputy registrar and GET TO WORK! Start by registering voters... end by picking them up and driving them to the polls. It will work, and it's our best strategy.

This is how we win the election, my friends... one heart, one mind, one voter at a time.

:bounce: Hooray for happy news!!! :bounce:

[Lisa0825]

35. Even those in non battleground states should become deputy registrars!

The best way to help the Democratic Party in this nation is to get Democrats elected locally. People in non-battleground states can still do a lot to help the Democratic Party in other races, and in years to come, that will produce the next generation of national leaders!

[VolcanoJen]

43. You're absolutely correct, Lisa!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

Make sure Bush has NO COATTAILS come November! Become a deputy registrar TODAY, no matter where you live!!!

[Changenow]

3. And all this in a state with no party organization whatsoever!

Just think of how it would be if there were an organized Democratic Party in Ohio, my God it would be a landslide!

PS They are working hard to get the BBV in place before the election and there is no one to stop them, so it would have to be a landslide for Kerry to carry Ohio.

[VolcanoJen]

13. Exactly! Kerry has yet to bring paid staff to Ohio!

It's time... the ads are working, it's time to build on the momentum!!

[Changenow]

22. That and the ODP is still reliving its Glory Days.

They started to believe the GOP press about them and went into hiding. There has been no evidence that there is a party organization in Ohio in years. I guess this shows that if you let the Republicans totally destroy a state people will realize that maybe their interests aren't being protected.

[cmd]

80. They're here! Finally! At last!

I just met our regional field organizer. She arrived yesterday in Akron. The state office in Columbus is open for the organizers. More details as they become available.

[gasperc]

86. awesome, we were getting worried!!!!

:)

[WLKjr]

64. wait a minute......

I found a slogan for kerry in your last remark!

Fellow OhioDEMS! Help Kerry Carry Ohio in 2004!

sweet!

[Hepburn]

4. WooooooooooooHooooooooooooooooo!!!

I am a native Ohioan and very proud to see this from my native state! Way to go! Congrats. :toast:

Guess I am still a Buckeye Gal at heart!

[Mountainman]

9. I am origianally from Dayton.

I moved to CA in 1982. When I was growing up and almost everyone worked either for NCR, or Delco, or Chrisler Air Temp or Frigidare, it was a Dem town.

[Kukesa]

25. Things sure change, Mountainman.

There is no more Frigidaire, NCR has outsourced all its manufacturing, Chrysler Air Temp has closed, and Delco is like a ghost town.

We still have Esther Price candy, though -- and MikeSells potato chips.

It's no longer a Dem town; no more Tony Hall.

We need to work really hard to carry this state, but we can do it!

[Mountainman]

33. I use to eat MikeSells potato chips by the 2 lb can!

On of my relatives was a sales delivery drive for MikeSells. He would get is a huge can of chips regularly. I graduated from the UofD.

[Hepburn]

32. From the Akron-Canton area originally....

....but a long-time CA resident - over 40 years now. But still have that soft spot for Ohio in my heart!

Way to go, Ohio!! :yourock:

[Mountainman]

5. This is bad for Diebold. How can they steal and election with such a

spread?

[UpInArms]

6. well, guess that we shall know that O'dell's hands are bloody

when he fulfills his "promise"

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/TECH/05/13/dented.diebold.ap/

Diebold or people affiliated with the company made more than $325,000 in political contributions since 2000, mainly to President Bush or Sen. George Voinovich, R- Ohio, according to the independent Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks money in politics.

In August, O'Dell said in a fund-raising letter for the Ohio Republican Party that he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes" to Bush.

The letter was sent just as Ohio's top elections official, a Republican, was about to qualify Diebold as one of three companies eligible to sell electronic voting machines in the state.

"The issue won't go away. I feel very badly about it," O'Dell said told The Associated Press. "I made a misstep with that letter."

O'Dell, who has been a guest of the president in Texas, said that since September he has sworn off politics.

[symbolman]

74. ever seen this one

O'Dell?

http://www.takebackthemedia.com/voterevolution.html

[Racenut20]

7. Fantastic !!!

I have been watching all the polls reported on DU and get real uncomfortable even when I see Kerry leading in a State but it is not 50%. Congratulations Ohioians. You are doing the job. Keep up the good work. Guess we Floridians better get our butts in gear a little more. This old vet is focused on registering the 310,000 vets in the TampaBay area.

[VolcanoJen]

16. And, keep in mind this poll was conducted AFTER the Bush Bus Tour...

... hit Ohio, and the front pages of every Ohio newspaper.

Buckeyes ain't buyin' it!!!

[WLKjr]

66. yeah, the bus tour that never was

he only went from dayton to cincy by bus! 30min trip

[GOPBasher]

8. That's awesome. Now, we just have to

take care of the electronic voting problem.

[TahitiNut]

10. Rule of thumb: The undecideds go for the challenger.

The incumbant President typcially loses the "undecided" vote. Thus, Kerry has a 14% margin +/- MOE.

[ibegurpard]

Good news.

let's hope it holds up.

[VolcanoJen]

11. Additionally... I think Kerry's new ads have worked WONDERS in Ohio.

They're positive, they introduce John Kerry to voters, and they show voters that Bush hasn't cornered the "patriotism" market. The new ads, which have been absolutely BLANKETING Ohio, are a welcome breath of fresh air after the negative Kerry ads Rove/Bush have been bombarding our state with since Super Tuesday.

I think voters are starting to get it... but this battle is far from won.

HOORAY!!! Let's keep this trend going!!

[Zero Gravitas]

21. Good to hear about the ads

It sounds like the contrast between them and Bush's cynical lies helps as much as the content of Kerry's ads.

[blm]

54. I agree. Many people are just learning who Kerry is through those ads.

Wait till they hear his WHOLE story and resume at the convention.

[UrbScotty]

12. The only problem with Ohio

...is the Buckeyes of Ohio State University.

Just kidding. ;-)

[VolcanoJen]

17. Lemme guess... you're a Wolverine?

}(

C'mon Michigan! I want to see the same results from the great state to the north. Kerry takes Ohio AND Michigan, and Kerry wins the Presidency.

And yes, this marks the first time in my personal history that I have ever rooted for Michigan, in any way, shape or form.

;-)

[UrbScotty]

20. Our Governor is sexier than yours

And 100% of our Senators are Democrats!

[Kukesa]

27. Dems are MUCH sexier than Repukes.

Whoever heard of a fantastic piece of ELEPHANT?:7

[VolcanoJen]

38. Just look at Bob Taft!!

:puke:

Our Michigan friend is correct... they indeed have one sexy governor!

:D

[Hepburn]

40. Same here...

...two Demo US Senators...but may I skip any commentary on Gov. Ah-nold??? Please...don't remind me!

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

47. New and Improved Bragging Rights

Screw the football game. If Kerry beats Bush by a bigger margin in Michigan than in Ohio, I'll stand in the rotunda of Ohio Stadium and sing "The Victors." If Ohio delivers bigger for Bush, you have to stand outside Mighigan Stadium and sing "Across the Field."

Deal?

[maxrandb]

72. That's a deal for me

And if we can work it, if MI goes more for Kerry than OH, then we should try to get Bo Schembechler to dot the I.

What do you get when you cross a Michigan Wolverine with a Pig?

-Nothing...there's some things even a pig won't do!

[Kukesa]

30. Someone ask Volcano Jen

WHERE she was born. I oughta know.

[VolcanoJen]

46. Pfffffftttt!

:D

[Zomby Woof]

71. I'll bite

Where were you born?

(and no smartass answers like "in a hospital") ;-)

[Hepburn]

36. Yeah, but...

....when their band spells out "OHIO" in script on a football field - I could not care less about the score of the game! This totally rocks!!

[denverbill]

14. Wow. Best news I've heard in weeks.

Way to go Ohioans!!

Go Jeff Seeman!!!

[StephNW4Clark]

15. Won't Inside Politics HAVE to talk about this?

Judy & Company might have brain freezes when they see this number!

[otohara]

24. Talk About What? - Some Silly Poll Showing Bush Losing

in a battleground state!!! yeehaa....

[VolcanoJen]

31. Steph... CNN's Inside Politics just reported it!

See my post below... :D

[StephNW4Clark]

18. More Good News - National ARG

May 7, 2004 (a bit old, I know)

Kerry and Bush Tied

John Kerry are George W. Bush among Americans registered to vote according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush, 47% say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush. In April, Kerry was at 50% and Bush was at 44%. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 45% say they would vote for Kerry, 44% say they would vote for Bush, and 4% say they would vote for Nader.

The results presented here are based on 770 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of registered voters. The interviews were completed May 3 through 6, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

While Bush's support among Republicans equals Kerry's support among Democrats, Kerry leads among Independent voters 49% to 42%.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/

[slinkerwink]

19. holy crap.

[sweetladybug]

28. This is great news ! Kerry has a damn good chance of win Ohio.

I bet Republicans are having a fit over this poll. I am beginning to think people are finnnnnnally opening their eyes and seeing Bush and his crime family for what they are.
ELECT KERRY 2004!!!!

[Webster Green]

23. Chimpy's bus tour is sure paying off.....

For us, Heh heh!

[LeinesRed]

61. oh yes....

and the millions of dollars of anti-kerry ads! Wonder how much * has spent in Ohio. Love it

[Neecy]

26. looks great

...and this poll seems to reflect reality - 2% for Nader, I think, is much more believable than the 6-7% we've been seeing elsewhere.

[VolcanoJen]

29. Hey, Steph!! Judy the MediaWhore just reported the Ohio Poll!!!

And yes, her brain appeared to be freezing, if that look in her eyes and smirky face were any indication.

:D

She even pointed out that if you take Nader out of the equation, Kerry is still up by 7 points!!

[StephNW4Clark]

41. Shut. Up.

I really need to get TIVO - so I won't miss the moments that matter the most. :)

[VolcanoJen]

44. The whole time, I was rooting... "C'mon Judy! Do it for STEPH!!"

And... she did!!

It was amazing... :D :D :D

[StephNW4Clark]

45. VolcanoJen - You may have Mind-Melding Powers

Try working some of your mojo on Rummy or the Chimp :)

[indigo32]

34. Awesome!

I love it.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[Beetwasher]

39. Out-Fucking-Standing! THE BIG MO!

Kerry's got the big mo baby!!!

[rogerashton]

42. Didn't anybody notice?

It appears that in this poll, Nader's votes came equally from *Shrub and Kerry.

[icymist]

48. My Republican mother in Ohio now calls herself a Dem!!!

This speaks volumes about what Bus*h is thought of in Ohio!

[Kukesa]

50. Yea!

Where does she live? Why did she change her mind? We've got a whole lot of changing to do around here.

[icymist]

51. She lives in a little town called Masury.

It's right next to Sharon, PA. I grew up there. She just sent me an email calling herself a Dem! Says she wants to 'wipe that smirk off his (Dubya's) face'! I'm loving it! :evilgrin:

[Kukesa]

55. I love it, too!

I grew up in Youngstown, also near Sharon, PA. Small world, Huh?:hi:

[icymist]

56. OMG!

It, indeed, is a small world! :hi:

[WLKjr]

68. Hell Yes that is the effect bush has had on Ohio Republicans

He turned them democratic quicker than what Ohio's weather changes, lol!

[DrBB]

49. Kerry's numbers are likely low

As usual, the big story is the "likely voters" number. But what is a "likely voter"? It isn't self-declared ("I'm a likely voter!"); it's defined as someone who voted in the last presidential election. 2000. When turnout was low. But all indications are that Dems are highly energized and likely to vote in much higher numbers this time around, and unregistered voters may weigh in more heavily as well, given that people feel much more strongly this time around about at least one candidate (the number who say they are "paying close attention" is MUCH higher than last time).

So I think we can trust those numbers are, if anything, on the low side.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

53. ACT and other 527's

are planning to register a quarter million new Democratic voters and shepard them to the polls. Since they didn't vote in the last election, they don't fit the definition of a "likely voter."

So I'm certain that Kerry's numbers are low.

[PopSixSquish]

52. Gimme an O....

O

Gimme an H

H

Gimme an I

I

Gimme an O

O

What's that spell

OHIO - GO BUCKEYES!!!!!!!!!!!

We may just save our country afterall!

[pinto]

57. This CA Dem is sending a donation to the ODP, well it's a pittance, to be

accurate, but I want to show some support....

[blm]

65. That's a great idea.

You should write a separate post and suggest to others in safe blue states to donate to the Dem party in battleground states like Ohio to help them GET OUT THE VOTE.

[Marthe48]

58. I'm planning to vote absentee ballot

this year. State of Ohio planned to have electronic machines in place in many counties, but a coalition of those counties are refusing--I read this a few months back, and I have no thread. Also, I read on DU that Diebold's home county may not certify their machines. In this part of Ohio, the focus seems on keeping Dems in local offices and supporting our Dem representatives (ie Rep. Ted Strickland). The Republicans built up their influence in many states by filling local seats with their reps, we absolutely have to catch up, or we'll have no say at all.

[llmart]

59. I'm a native Ohioan....

living in Michigan and if Ohio goes to Kerry I'll be proud of my birth state. I think Kerry's gonna have Michigan sewed up. My relatives in Ohio absolutely hate Bush!!!

[Hepburn]

85. Absolutely Proud to Shout I was Born In Ohio!

Having it look like Ohio will go for Kerry makes me so proud of my native state! Long time California resident, but so happy that Ohio is showing its good old Democratic and American roots! Way to go you guys in Ohio!!

:toast:

[CookieD]

60. Rove has got to be pissing all over himself!

He's probably pulling out his last three hairs. :D

[4_Legs_Good]

62. 2004 is ALL ABOUT OHIO!!

This is the best news I've heard in weeks! Please tell me it's all reputable!

I'm completely convinced that Ohio is where the battle must be fought and won.

And this is after Bush's recent tour?

I think Kerry should be advertising in California telling us how to help out in Ohio.

Good work, and keep it up.

david

[WLKjr]

63. Kerry Ads in my area

have started to be on just as much as bush ads.

OHIO is going to be the heart of it all in '04.


I just hope it doesnt end up like Florida '00!


Bush hasn't done a damn thing for OHIO and niether has his repuke freind Boob Taft, and I think people are starting to realize that. Also I find it interesting that he didn't even take the bus through the area that supposidly supports him....people found out that he lied about a damn bus trip. People are waking up in NW ohio.

[4_Legs_Good]

67. Woo Hoo!!!

Keep 'em awake!

david

[The_Casual_Observer]

69. The election is starting to look like the humiliating landslide

fit for an idiot like bush.

[4_Legs_Good]

70. Yup. I think we need now to concentrate on the Senate

We *need* to take back the Senate in 2004.

How's it looking?

david

[Darranar]

73. Good news! n/t

[Politicub]

75. Yeah! And it's a battleground state!!

This bodes well for the Kerry campaign.

WTG Ohio!!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[Shoedogg]

76. I promise you, we shall deliver Ohio.

(No making fun of my beat-up Metro!)

[osaMABUSh]

79. I love bumper stickers - get an American flag one too

The No W is one of my favorites.

I suggest you add an American flag. I know it was kinda of a joke when all the SUVs had huge Amercian flags a few years back but a small tasteful flag would show that we are true patriots - anti-Bush and pro-American at the same time.

[4dsc]

77. Check out the Electoral Vote Calculator

very interesting results with Ohio going to Kerry..

[yellowcanine]

78. When was the last time a Pub lost Ohio and still won?

Anybody know?

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

82. Ohio is a Bell Weather State

I think it's been with the winning candidate for more than twenty years.

[MisterP]

84. no Republican has lost OH and won the nation

though many have lost nationally even with Ohio.
In 1848, the Whig Zachary Taylor won without Ohio, and that's it.

[osaMABUSh]

81. I'm stoked in PA, battleground too, so I'm going to johnkerry.com

right now and ordering a bunch of John Kerry President bumper stickers to send to friends and relatives around Pennsylvania and some in Texas too!

[David Zephyr]

83. Very, Very Good News.

Sweet.