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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 06:11 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 4 May
Tuesday May 4, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 265
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 144 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 197 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 411
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 893
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Jeff Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 3, 2004

Dow... 10,314.00 +88.43 (+0.86%)
Nasdaq... 1,938.72 +18.57 (+0.97%)
S&P 500... 1,117.49 +10.19 (+0.92%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.50% UNCH (UNCH)
Gold future... 387.50 UNCH (UNCH)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P


||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 06:46 AM
Response to Original message
1. daily dollar watch
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.99 Change -0.77 (-0.85%)

related articles:

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/103770/content.asp?menu=technicalanalysis&dia=452004

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY

The dollar was mixed and quiet on Monday, as both the Japanese and the UK markets were closed. There were a few sparkles in the US following a couple of mixed economic reports, but that was it. The dollar should struggle higher against the European currencies but dollar/yen should be mixed to lower. The FOMC will keep rates on hold, but dissect the subsequent statement.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar sank back below the 200-day moving average at 1.1953 and the

pressure of the top of its declining channel should weigh it down.

Below 1.1916, the pair has support at 1.1905. If its decline picks up momentum, then look for further weakness to the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1840. There still is a pivotal level at 1.1759, but a slide that aggressive is quite unlikely.

<snip>

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen remained within an inside range on Monday again and there is little reason to expect any different today. The pair remains at the bottom of its rising channel.

A break below this line at 110.00 there is support at 109.71. If these levels give way, then dollar/yen will likely test the 50-point pivot at 109.15, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. If this decline accelerates, then look for further support is at 108.29 but this is unlikely.

<snip>

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar fell on Monday but remained within an inside range of 1.7580 to 1.7810. It should see sideways trading as any declining bias should be countered by expectations for a rate hike on Thursday.

Initial resistance remains at 1.7813 and a break higher would target 1.7906. A close higher would signal an upmove to 1.7971, but this remains unlikely.

<snip>

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc marched higher on Monday but failed to penetrate the resistance of its 200-day moving average.

If it can climb back above this average at 1.3040, dollar/Swiss franc will likely test the resistance at 1.3066. A break above higher would call for a test at 1.3100, but a rally to 1.3160 would be unlikely.

...more...


http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/05/04/rtr1357694.html

FOREX-Dollar falls as jitters rise ahead of Fed verdict

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - The dollar fell across the board as investors grew jittery ahead of a U.S. interest rate decision later on Tuesday that market had overdone expectations of aggressive U.S. rate hikes later this year.

Most economists expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to leave rates at a 46-year low of one percent in an announcement at 1815 GMT following a policy meeting.

However, they think it will indicate higher borrowing costs will soon be needed to curb inflationary pressure in the fast-growing U.S. economy.

With the market already pricing in several dollar-supportive U.S. rate hikes before the end of the year, dealers said the risks to the greenback were now on the downside.

"People are afraid the dollar could suffer if the Fed does not move to a tightening bias today," said Lee Ferridge, head of global currency strategy at Rabobank.

"The euro's push above $1.20 caught many by surprise and triggered (dollar) sell-stops."

<snip>

"The market is focused on the language of the Fed. They are warming up the market for a future rate hike, likely to come in August," said Fatih Yilmaz, currency strategist at Bank of America.

Much hangs on the next couple of payroll reports which could show whether hiring has picked up to a more robust pace.

The April labour report is due on Friday. A rise of more than 170,000 jobs is expected in payrolls, which, coming after March's 308,000 jump, would add to expectations for a U.S. rate rise.

The dollar's fall on Tuesday came after supportive news for the U.S. currency on Monday from the U.S. government's budget situation.

...more...


Then there's that pesky oil:

CLM4 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jun (NYMEX) 38.21

http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/04/markets/oil.reut/

Oil climbs to 13-year high

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices soared to 13 year-highs Tuesday as violence in the Middle East and low U.S. fuel stocks exacerbated concerns about tight supplies.

London's Brent crude for July delivery surged 84 cents to $35.32, its highest level since the 1991 Gulf War following the weekend killings of five Western workers at a Saudi chemicals plant in Yanbu.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), energy adviser to 26 industrialized nations, has warned that high oil prices could "inflict substantial damage on the economies of oil-importing countries and on the global economy."

U.S. light crude for June delivery fell four cents to $38.17 a barrel after climbing more than 80 cents Monday when London markets were closed for a public holiday.

...more...


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/04/business/04paso.html

El Paso Says Reserves May Have Been Falsified

The El Paso Corporation, the troubled Houston energy company, said yesterday that an outside investigation had found that some employees might have deliberately overstated oil and gas reserves and that it would need to restate five years of results.

El Paso, which is struggling to shed billions of dollars in debt after a failed Enron-style expansion into energy trading, said in February that it would reduce its estimates of proven oil and natural gas reserves by 1.8 trillion cubic feet, or about 41 percent, and take a $1 billion charge for the reduction. In late March, the company said the Securities and Exchange Commission had begun a formal investigation.

El Paso hired the law firm of Haynes & Boone to conduct its own investigation. It found that from 1999 to 2003, "certain employees used aggressive, and sometimes unsupportable methods" to book reserves, El Paso said in a statement yesterday. In addition, the company said, certain employees, who were not identified, "provided proved reserve estimates that they knew, or should have known were incorrect" when they were reported.

Financial statements from 1999 to 2003 will be restated for El Paso and its subsidiaries, El Paso CG and El Paso Production Holding, the company said. None of the current senior executives took part in the inaccurate booking, the investigation found.

...more...


Auto sales were a bit weird, too.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bal-bz.autos04may04,0,1469441.story?coll=bal-business-headlines

Ford sales slip in April; Chrysler tops estimates

Gas-guzzlers' popularity boosts some numbers; GM is to report today

DETROIT - Americans' appetites for gasoline-slurping pickups and sport utility vehicles boosted business for several automakers last month, even as high fuel prices helped contribute to record sales for gas-electric hybrid cars.

Ford Motor Co.'s overall sales for April were below expectations, the company said yesterday, and DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group performed slightly better than expected.

A computer glitch forced General Motors Corp., the world's largest automaker, to postpone its April sales report until today. GM's sales were expected to rise in April, in line with projected gains for the overall industry.

Among foreign automakers, Toyota Motor Corp. reported its eighth consecutive best-ever April, helped in part by strong demand for its gas-electric hybrid Prius sedan. Toyota's U.S. sales were up 10 percent during the month.

...more...


I ended up out of town again yesterday - unexpected, but ... oh well...

Hopefully, my life will settle down and I will get to spend more time with the Marketeers (one of my favorite places :) )

Have a Great Day Marketeers!
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 07:17 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. WTF, from that Forex article - Is Snow raiding SS again?
The U.S. Treasury Department slashed its estimated borrowing for the current quarter in half and said it had borrowed far less than expected in the first three months of 2004.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 07:22 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. either SS or government employee retirement funds
or perhaps they have just decided not to pay the bills?

There is always the possibility that they have "found" that missing $2.3 trillion from the Pentagon (yeah, right).

so many questions and no one to ask them :shrug:
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 07:32 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Here's an attempt at an explanation - still gotta ask WTF
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-05/04/content_1452753.htm

WASHINGTON, May 3 (Xinhua) -- The US government expects to borrow 38 billion US dollars from the credit markets in the April-to-June quarter this year, which is about half the amount it previously estimated, the Treasury Department said Monday.

The department said that the improvement resulted in part from higher tax revenues and lower government spending. The previous estimate for the quarter, made in February, was 75 billion dollars.

The department needs to borrow to finance the government's daily operations, including meeting interest payments on the national debt, which topped 7 trillion dollars earlier this year.

In the January-to-March quarter, government borrowing came to 146 billion dollars, an all-time high for any quarter. Still, thatwas an improvement over the previous borrowing estimate of 177 billion dollars made in February.

"The decrease in borrowing is largely attributable to lower tax refunds and higher payroll taxes," the department said.

:shrug:PR tax is SS and Medicare vs income tax, no? :shrug:

snip>

The US government expects the budget deficit to swell to 521 billion dollars, while the Congressional Budget Office forecasts 477 billion dollars in red ink. Either projection would mark a record in dollar terms.




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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 06:46 AM
Response to Original message
2. WrapUp by Jim Willie CB - OREWELLIAN FINANCIAL NEWSPEAK
When Wall Street and corporate officers executed on their motive to deceive the public and the world into believing the “New Economy” myth, Fed Chairman Greenspan joined the great game to give it legitimacy, despite his amateur standing in technology. During the fraud perpetrated upon the American investment community, the US Treasury conspired as a clandestine participant. Secy Rubin executed the gold carry trade, whereby vaulted gold bullion fueled a massive USDollar and USTBond rally. After the stock bust in 2000, the USGovt statistical elves joined actively in the collusion. They desperately wanted to continue and further the impression that the US Economy would respond well and emerge on a robust course. Their motive is to keep foreign investors committed, who supply 45% of federal credit and about 35% of mortgage agency credit. In order to manage the ongoing task of fraud and deception, Wall Street, the USGovt administration, and the Federal Reserve saw the wisdom in altering the language of the economy and financial markets. Their motive is to influence thought and to condition the behavior of citizens, consumers, and investors.

The recent fantasy can be called the “New Macro” myth wherein gargantuan imbalances are professed not to be a problem. See the current account (trade gap) and federal deficits. This rings reminiscently from 1999, as an echo that valuations did not matter. Propaganda must once more be directed toward the masses. New definitions are promoted which pass through rose-colored glass filters. Puppeteers and shylocks are in our midst. George Orwell provided a vivid description in his classic novel of mind control and its function to wield power, to exert control, so as to maintain social order. What follows extends far beyond Fedspeak, which was dispensed as ivory tower editorial banter, transmitted from podium megaphones to keep even many experts confused. Many are the establishment’s brandished weapons, which are wielded like bludgeons over the unwitting bewildered and seemingly blinded masses in an attempt to wish an outcome and to bully foreign bankers. Greenspan acts as the general, reinforced by countless Fed governors, analysts, and leading economists who serve like dutiful officers. They seem like many dons within the financial mafia, who enlist overnight contract hits from the oyabun within the yen-peddling yakuza in Japan.

-cut-

“legal tender is now money”

Since the abandonment of the gold standard, money used inside the United States cannot pass any constitutional test. Explicit requirements are stated whereby gold and silver, or notes backed by these precious metals, are the only valid form of money. A $20 bill will surely enable you to purchase a batch of groceries, or fill your car tank with gasoline, or buy new clothes, or complete other sales. That does not mean the $20 bill constitutes money. We pay for things with money, or so we think. No. We pay with legal tender, some medium of exchange approved for brokering a transaction between two parties. In ancient times, it could have been salt. In colonial times, it could have been beaver pelts or wampum. At some progressive food coops, it could be vouchers. No, our USDollar is no longer money, and contains less tangible value than salt or pelts. It is denominated debt. The USDollar is no longer represented by gold reserves safely secured in Fort Knox or Federal Reserve Bank vaults. USDollars we spend are actually debt denominated coupons which are widely used to satisfy debts and obligations, public and private.

“credit access is now wealth”

Tell any person, young or middle aged or old, that he or she has a brand new credit line of $10 thousand. Stand back, watch the reaction. Now observe the ensuing talk. It is centered on what the person now plans to purchase. Especially within the USA, economic participants extend debts by drawing upon credit lines. They do it in force, with fanfare, vigor, and enthusiasm. A new credit line of size enables people to feel suddenly more wealthy, despite no change to net worth, i.e. wealth. Opportunity seems to spring up. Ideas flow. Dreams are pictured. Unfortunately, use of that credit line comes with an obligation to pay back money to the creditor. That hardly gets in the way of spending, for most people. In fact, a more perverse common thread exists. Some people actually harbor the notion that they can always declare bankruptcy if times get tough, if things go bad, if control is lost. Bankruptcy and restructured debt is commonplace. Among the ranks of college students, fully 23% have already declared bankruptcy, a shocking statistic. We as a culture have come full circle apart from our parents and grandparents. They learned of the ravages of debt destruction during the Great Depression. Our generation celebrates debt, and abuses it to unbelievable levels. It has thoroughly confused wealth and credit access.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 09:11 AM
Response to Reply #2
10. Great wrap up. Willy hits on a common theme in this maladmin of
simply changing the marketing spin of existing policy and misjudgments.

snip>

“general market risk is now volatility”

Few seem to want to admit that extreme stock market volatility arrived on the scene late in the 1980 decade. Several years after our nation registered outsized trade deficits, paid bills with debts, we saw the Asian Meltdown and collapse of the Japanese stock and real estate markets. The USA exported inflation. As a corollary, economic accidents occurred in Japan, Thailand, Korea, and elsewhere in Asia. An inflation policy wreaked havoc with financial markets. Officials did not want to attach any association between inflation and stock risk of devastating declines. So we heard and continue to hear of volatility. The term is a euphemism for stock risk, closely tied to the ebb & flow of inflation & bust. Twenty to thirty years ago, no such volatility was common. Volatility used to be interpreted as a warning signal.

“stock investment is now channeled savings”

In the 1990 decade, following the irrational exuberance finally endorsed by chairman Greenspan, national savings plummeted, debts rose without bound, and the American mindset was forever altered. We spent more because we viewed our stock accounts, mutual funds, and pension funds as savings. Wall Street, even the USGovt via 401k creation, encouraged people to put their money into the stock market. However, they did not want the public to regard their actions as investment with risk. So we were taught that we channel savings into equities. The last remaining investor hit the scene in 1999, and true to form, the stock market busted. Of course, foreigners had a hand at the top, but that was in part due to reduced federal deficits during the boom years, when capital gain taxes hit record highs.

snip>

“accounting fraud is now financial engineering”

A critical component to the New Economy myth, Ponzi scheme, and con game was financial accounting. It serves as a rigged meter attached to the speculative machinery. Incredible games are played to this day within the process. Entries are taken off the balance sheet if they look too bad, are built into Special Purpose Entities. The acronym SPE sounds better. Official number crunchers lead in the game, with usage of hedonic adjustments to triple the GDP growth reported, with reliance on uncounted workers to reduce the jobless rate, with undeclared gold sales on the balance sheets. Firms report adjusted earnings after removing routine fixed and non-recurring costs in a veritable shell game. Stock options are a clever inflationary device to print money in corporate basements. Arguments continue as to whether they should be accounted for. Interest rate swaps conceal true debt burden service costs. Inventory writeoffs can distort losses, and even (in the case of Cisco) augment future earnings. At times, new long-term debt is issued for the unexpressed purpose of share buybacks. There is no end to the type of games played. In the process, the public needed new terminology. Financial engineering has a sophisticated ring to it, surely better than fraud.

“derivatives are now off-loaded risk”

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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 08:15 AM
Response to Original message
6. Some concerns among consumers about economy later this year
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-ct--consumerconfidenc0504may04,0,7269031.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire

STORRS, Conn. -- A quarterly survey has found that Connecticut consumers are a bit leery about how the economy will be doing months from now.

The report released Monday marks the first drop in the quarterly Webster Consumer Confidence Index since July and the largest since January 2003.

"It could very easily be just sort of a one-time hiccup, or it could signal the end of the up trend," James R. Moor Jr., a research associate at the University of Connecticut's Center for Economic Analysis, which manages the survey, said.

<snip>

Although the survey doesn't ask consumers why they feel less confident, Moor pointed to Iraq and increasing energy prices, as well as concerns about rising interest rates and inflation, as among concerns weighing on consumers.

The Webster Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94 in April, down 7 percent from a 100.5 reading in January.

...more...
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 08:15 AM
Response to Original message
7. Interest Rates Not Expected to Change
WASHINGTON - The economy is motoring ahead, although the labor market, while showing improvements, needs to catch up. That's why economists expect the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) to hold short-term interest rates at ultra-low levels for a while longer. An announcement is expected this afternoon after the Federal Open Market Committee (news - web sites) meeting.

Even so, rates still could move higher later this year.

Private economists say the economic recovery has gained traction since Fed Chairman Greenspan and his Federal Open Market Committee colleagues convened last on March 16 to discuss interest rate policy.

Importantly, a government report issued after the Fed's March meeting showed that the economy, after months of sluggish payroll gains, added 308,000 jobs in March, the most in four years. While that raised hope that the jobs market may be turning an important corner, economists said steady and solid gains need to be made in coming months for confirmation that the corner has been turned.

story
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 08:28 AM
Response to Original message
8. FOREX-Dollar falls across board as Fed verdict looms
http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/funds/newswire/2004/05/04/rtr1357819.html

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - The dollar suffered broad-based losses ahead of a U.S. Fed central bank meeting on Tuesday as investors fretted markets had overdone expectations of aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes later this year.

Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to leave U.S. interest rates at a 46-year low of one percent in an announcement at 1815 GMT following its policy meeting.

However, they think it will indicate higher borrowing costs will soon be needed to curb inflationary pressure in the fast-growing economy.

With the market already pricing in several dollar-supportive U.S. rate hikes before the end of the year, dealers said the risks to the greenback were now on the downside.

"People are afraid the dollar could suffer if the Fed does not move to a tightening bias today," said Lee Ferridge, head of global currency strategy at Rabobank.

...more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 10:52 AM
Response to Reply #8
16. Perhaps speculation is morphing into skeptism that the Fed can
pull off raising rates without great pain to the carry-trade? :shrug:

Seems they jumped the gun in the speculation of when and by how much rates would rise. Can't blame them with all that "good news" the Fed and Treasury have been trumpeting.

Here's an interesting tidbit - I never heard of a shadow FOMC before.

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=200405040258MKTNEWS_MAINWIRE_8DDA_8897

snip>
U.S. monetary policy is "inconsistent with maintaining price stability," and the Federal Reserve should start tightening credit conditions, the Shadow FOMC said Monday in its semi-annual report. The SOMC also recommended U.S. authorities stop urging China to adopt a flexible foreign exchange system.


Lot's more "good news" in this article as well. Reading this certainly raised my level of skeptism. :P
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 08:41 AM
Response to Original message
9. Fed starts policy meeting, no rate change seen
http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/funds/newswire/2004/05/04/rtr1357917.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's policy panel began meeting Tuesday morning with economists expecting the central bank to leave short-term interest rates unchanged but signal it sees inflation as a potential worry.

The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee began at about 9 a.m. EST, a Fed representative said. A brief post-meeting statement will be issued by the FOMC at about 2:15 p.m. EST.

Analysts expect the Fed to leave its key federal funds rate at its lowest level since 1958 -- 1 percent -- but change its assessment of inflationary risks.

...more...
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
11. Surprisingly strong "Factory Orders" numbers
Expected an increase from .3% to 2.4% (which would already be the strongest number in a year). Came in instead at 4.3% on a revised figure from last month of 1.1%.

That basically means that the last two months combined were expected to see a strong increase in factory orders.... but ended up coming in at double the anticipated increase. New orders for manufactured durable goods were up a solid 5%.


This is not normally a "market moving" data point, but numbers this high should have a positive effect leading into the Fed meeting (then all bets are off), and will probably revise expectations fro the advance GDP figure.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 09:22 AM
Response to Original message
12. U.S. March factory orders jump 4.3%
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Orders for U.S.-made factory goods jumped 4.3 percent in March while shipments from factories increased a record 3.8 percent, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. The increase in factory orders was nearly double the 2.2 percent expected by economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch. It was the largest gain since July 2002. Orders for durable goods in March were revised sharply higher to a 5 percent gain from 3.4 percent estimated a week ago. Orders for nondurable goods increased 3.5 percent. Unfilled orders increased 1.2 percent. Inventories increased a tiny 0.3 percent.

...just a bit more...


More manufactured numbers?? :shrug:

dollar still dropping

Last trade 89.76 Change -1.00 (-1.10%)

market numbers at 10:21 EST

Dow 10,305.27 -8.73 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,944.90 +6.18 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,117.78 +0.29 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.493% -0.008
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
13. found this article interesting
for many reasons :shrug:

http://www.rtoonline.com/Content/Article/May04/LazyBoyWriteDown050404.asp

La-Z-Boy Announces $71 Million Impairment Charge; Cites Chinese Imports As Major Cause

La-Z-Boy Incorporated (LZB) announced today that it will take a pre-tax charge of $71.9 million, $55.9 million net of tax, or $1.04 per diluted share to reflect the impairment of certain intangible assets in its fiscal 2004 fourth quarter ending April 24, 2004. The vast majority of this charge relates to the casegoods segment of its business and is a result of the writedown of both trade names and goodwill associated with prior acquisitions.

La-Z-Boy Incorporated president and CEO Kurt L. Darrow said, "The values of our casegoods businesses have been negatively impacted by the onslaught of import competition primarily from China and the severe downturn in the hospitality industry since September 11, 2001." Under FASB Statement of Accounting Financial Standards 142 "Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets", companies are annually required to assess the value of goodwill and identifiable intangible assets. La-Z-Boy performs that assessment in the fourth quarter each year. This charge is non- cash and will not negatively impact any of our debt covenants.

...more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 10:36 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. Wonder what their casegoods businesses are? Sounds like more
"financialization", sort of like when Enron created pseudo-entities. These might be businesses they use for write-offs. :shrug:

We had goodwill assets on the books where I worked - it was things like donations of obsolete goods to non-profit organizations - rather than just write-off the parts from inventory and toss them in the dumpster they became an "asset". We also had goodwill assets on the books for deeply discounted items to schools and non-profits, with the assumption those "good deeds" would generate more business. Sort of marketing costs creatively carried as goodwill assets instead. Never did understand the entire process as my accounting background is old, when everything was done according to GAAP.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. intangibles are so .....
intangible!

More like "name value" or recognition of quality by association.

But having imports affect that is rather startling - I thought that the weak dollar was supposed to help us to "export" these products :shrug:

Guess the economic theories are having some difficulty toeing the line here.
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 10:54 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. Yeah, I didn't get the tie in to imports at all. I lost that train of
thought while writing up the post. A bit scatter-brained this morning, again.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 11:08 AM
Response to Original message
18. Market Numbers at 12:06 EST
Edited on Tue May-04-04 11:08 AM by UpInArms
Dow 10,284.41 -29.59 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,937.96 -0.76 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,114.72 -2.77 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.504% +0.003


and a side of blather:

12:00PM: Stock indices opened marginally higher this morning, helped by momentum from yesterday...however, the market quickly went into a holding pattern ahead of the Fed policy announcement due at 2:15 ET today, and has backed off from earlier gains...expectations are that the Fed will not raise interest rates, but will signal a leaning towards higher rates in the months ahead...with the announcement looming, earnings reports, ratings changes, and economic data have had limited impact...

March factory orders were up a very strong 4.3%, and the durables component was revised up to a 5.0% gain from a previously reported 3.4% gain...but the report was barely noticed...higher commodity prices are boosting oil, gold, and related sectors, while the casino sector is lower after downgrades from CIBC and Merrill Lynch on selected stocks...volume is light...bond prices are little changed...NYSE Adv/Dec 1631/1445, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1462/ 1466

(edited for html)
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 11:26 AM
Response to Original message
19. Market sees 3, maybe 4, rate hikes in 2004
http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=21014389&brk=1

snip>
...."Still, the statement will be designed to preserve Fed flexibility, depending on the trajectory of growth and inflation."

Heading into Tuesday's meeting, the fed funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade was giving a rate hike just an 11 percent chance, up from 9 percent on Monday on the heels of a blowout report on factory orders.

snip>
The fed funds future market is pricing in a 48 percent chance of a rate increase at the June meeting, up from 44 percent earlier.

By August, the market is 100 percent certain rates will rise by at least a quarter point and is giving a 15 percent that rates will rise by a half point.

Rate hikes are likely at the September meeting and at either the November or December meeting, according to the futures market.

By the end of the year, the market is pricing in three or four quarter-point rate hikes.
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 11:30 AM
Response to Original message
20. U.S. job cuts rise 6.1 percent in April - report
http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/05/04/rtr1358052.html

NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - Layoffs in the United States rose 6.1 percent last month, after falling to their lowest level in nine months in March, a report said on Tuesday, signaling the April payrolls report due Friday may not be as strong as in March.

The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said employers announced 72,184 job cuts in April, up from the 68,034 in March, but still down 51 percent from April 2003.

The Challenger report lends weight to bond market expectations that the April jobs report due at the end of the week is likely to come in weaker than last month.

snip>
A decline in the number of jobs added to the economy in April could be a blow to consumer and business confidence, Christmas said.

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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 11:34 AM
Response to Original message
21. Gold firm, marks time in Europe ahead of Fed meet
http://www.forbes.com/home/newswire/2004/05/04/rtr1358176.html

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Gold bullion remained firm during Tuesday
afternoon trading in Europe, underpinned by a stronger euro, but the market mostly marked time
ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting later in the day, traders said.

The euro <EUR=> hit a session high of $1.2101 during early-afternoon trading, settling around $1.2070. Spot gold <XAU=> was quoted at $391.00/391.70 an ounce, up from New York's close on Monday at $386.90/387.70.

"With the euro steadier, and the market awaiting the FOMC decision this evening, conditions are expected to remain relatively muted. While the upside potential remains in the market, funds remain the main drivers," Barclays Capital said in a daily note.

News that France would sell between 500 to 600 tonnes of its gold reserves was not a surprise as the disposal will form part of the recently agreed central bank sales accord.

more...
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aneerkoinos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 11:44 AM
Response to Original message
22. oil tops $39
Light sweet crude now 39,08.

If dollar now started it's plunge towards 1,4 euros, as it seems, fifty bucks / barrel (or more?) before the end of summer seems quite possible.

It also seems that Venezuela has peaked few years ago, and realization of that is starting to sink in.
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #22
27. NYMEX crude jumps to 14-month high on security fears
Here we go, NOW they're looking at security fears - it's not like THAT'S anything new. And what ever happened with that report a while back about the market shorts and price manipulations.


NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - NYMEX crude oil futures rose to their highest prices in 14 months Tuesday morning on widespread concerns over potential supply disruptions amid violence in the Middle East.

And gasoline futures again surged into record high territory on worries over tight U.S. gasoline supplies with the peak summer driving season less than a month away.

snip>
Analysts said while the day's rally was in follow-through to Monday's sharp advance in the wake of a weekend attack on a petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia, a slew of fundamental developments triggered fund buying this morning and gave further fuel to the price advance.

Among them were fresh U.S. economic data showing that orders for factory goods in March easily outstripped all expectations, and technical problems at a North Sea platform that hit flows from Britannia, one of Britain's biggest gas fields, said Jon Stuart, market analyst at Fimat USA Futures.

more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 12:16 PM
Response to Original message
23. The Deflation Dog Didn't Bite After All
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/goldsmith050404.html

Many people are unaware of it, but there has always been a Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse. Overlooked in scripture, he has been there nonetheless, waiting with rancid, baited breath to gallop across the world and leave his destructive hoof-prints in the rubble of Western civilization. He is, according to many government spokesmen and media pundits, the Horseman called "Deflation."

Next to dire warnings of SARS, Mad Cow Disease, and the hegemony of conservative talk radio, the big "scare story" of 2003 was that deflation was upon us, or approaching. Beginning as a trickle in the first quarter of '03, the reports turned into a flood after April. Suddenly, dozens of "experts" and policy analysts lamented with great wailing the forbidding approach of the destructive force known as deflation. Politicians spending other people's money advised us that the Federal Reserve had better do something fast, because the dollar was, as many phrased it, "too strong."

Today, with the passage of a year to allow for dispassionate analysis, the anguish appears to have been misplaced. Not only has the US economy not fallen into a deflationary period, it has continued to see a consistent, though low, decrease in the buying power of the Dollar-a continuation of the inflationary behavior of the Fed that has been its salient characteristic for most of its existence.

In May of 2003, members of the Bush Administration began "talking down" the dollar, hinting that they wanted to see it lowered in value relative to the Euro. American Enterprise Institute economist John Makin was quoted in a May 26 Scripps Howard News Service article as believing that a 10 to 20 percent decline in the dollar would increase "economic growth" to 3% by 2004.

Three factors were cited to promote this crusade against deflation.

more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. DENUDING THE EMPEROR
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/tipaldi050304.html

Various comments I received (many thanks to everybody for the kind words, comments and critics) in relation to my precedent essay compel me to face those questions one more time, hoping to better clarify my view.

I have to start again with the definitions of inflation and deflations. In economy, both are just monetary phenomena, even if the common language uses them in a wide range of meanings, all of them flawed. So, I repeat once again, the proper economic definition of inflation is an increase of the money supply in the system, while deflation is the exact contrary.

A collapse in the price of financial and real assets is not deflation, but liquidation; this event would have no effect on the level of money stock in the economic system. Bonds, shares, houses are not components of the money stock present in the system, even considering the broadest measure of money supply; in fact, they represent money already drawn out from the system. Paradoxically, their liquidation, even at always lower prices, would result in an increase of money in the system.

At the same time, an unwillingness of the banking system to lend or of the public to borrow, so like a preference of people to save and hoard cash, is not deflation, because it would not affect the level of money present in the system, but just its circulation inside it.

Again, an economic stagnation would not be a deflation, but just the outcome of the severe misallocations and unbalances in the productive system, which may be consequences of monetary phenomena, but never their essence.

more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 12:18 PM
Response to Original message
24. 1:16 numbers
Dow 10,283.91 -30.09 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,937.63 -1.09 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,114.99 -2.50 (-0.22%)
10-yr Bond 4.507% +0.006
30-yr Bond 5.288% +0.007


NYSE Volume 813,315,000
Nasdaq Volume 925,955,000

1:00PM: Indices stay in a modestly defensive posture ahead of the Fed announcement, but the action remains very tame...advancers and decliners are about even...NYSE Adv/Dec 1627/1547, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1452/1527
12:30PM: The market shows no inclination to rally ahead of the Fed announcement, as all the indices slip into the red, perhaps reflecting nervousness over a more strongly worded statement...after the Fed announcement today, the market's attention will probably turn to the April employment data due on Friday morning...expectations are for an increase in nonfarm payrolls of between 160,000 to 170,000 but forecasts vary widely after the big 308,000 gain for March...NYSE Adv/Dec 1602/1532, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1451/1499

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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 01:28 PM
Response to Original message
26. 2:26 update
Dow 10,303.07 -10.93 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,942.95 +4.23 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,118.09 +0.60 (+0.05%)
10-yr Bond 4.503% +0.002
30-yr Bond 5.289% +0.008


NYSE Volume 1,043,907,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,190,644,000

2:20PM: The Fed has left the fed funds rate unchanged, and changed the policy statement to read "The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. Similarly, the risks to the goal of price stability have moved into balance. At this juncture, with inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured"...
2:00PM: Still steady heading into the announcement...the last change in Fed policy was June 25, 2003, when the fed funds rate target was reduced to 1.00% from 1.25%...there was also only one change in 2002, which was a similar easing in policy on November 6...market volatility can be severe after a policy announcement...often, an initial move is countered later...NYSE Adv/Dec 1803/1406, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1585/1450

1:30PM: In preparation for assessing the new policy statement from the Fed, here is the relevant paragraph from the prior statement: The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation...

many analysts are looking for statement of greater concern with regard to inflation, and the elimination of the word "patient"... NYSE Adv/Dec 1643/1561, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1487/1514


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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 02:09 PM
Response to Original message
28. 3:07 and time to break out the champagne
Dow 10,367.23 +53.23 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 1,961.26 +22.54 (+1.16%)
S&P 500 1,125.38 +7.89 (+0.71%)
10-yr Bond 4.540% +0.039
30-yr Bond 5.331% +0.050


NYSE Volume 1,267,495,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,458,313,000

3:00PM: Stocks have rallied after digesting the Fed policy statement...the Fed is certainly going to raise rates over the summer, but with the funds rate at 1% and the economy growing at a brisk pace, even a couple of 1/4% point increases may not slow down the strong momentum in corporate earnings...so, at least for today, the interpretation is that the Fed is not going to take away the punch bowl completely...the 10-year note is now -7/32 to yield 4.53%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1959/1298, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1794/1301
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-04 07:07 PM
Response to Original message
29. Hmmm, guess I'll post the closing numbers for the day
Edited on Tue May-04-04 07:08 PM by 54anickel
Dow 10,317.20 +3.20 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,950.48 +11.76 (+0.61%)
S&P 500 1,119.55 +2.06 (+0.18%)
10-yr Bond 4.544% +0.043
30-yr Bond 5.329% +0.048


NYSE Volume 1,662,228,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,866,017,000

Close: It was a quiet day, and an active day...stocks opened marginally higher on momentum from yesterday, but quickly fell into a holding pattern near unchanged ahead of the Fed policy announcement...even an impressive 4.3% gain in March factory orders, boosted by an upward revision to durables orders to 5.0% (from a previously reported 3.4%) drew little attention after the 10:00 ET release...at 2:15 ET the Fed announced that it was leaving the fed funds target at 1%, and that it saw balanced risks to the goal of price stability...
this showed only mild concern for the recent firming in inflation data...also, the Fed said "policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured"...in other words, higher interest rates are coming, but not all that quickly...this was much as expected, but was not nearly as bad as the worst fears, and stocks improved in afternoon trading, only to ease back in the final hour...now, the attention turns to the employment release on Friday...volume was moderate as the action picked up after the Fed announcement...advancers led decliners by a decent amount...

stocks may have taken the Fed news as upbeat, but bonds ended lower, with the 10-year note -11/32 to yield 4.54%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1919/1392, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1876/1267

3:30PM : Choppy action but indices hold on to decent gains...perhaps the main conclusion from the Fed policy announcement was that it is not overly bearish...the market knew rates were going higher, and the Fed's approach apparently will be temperate...the fears of last week have given way to some extent to a better understanding of how the Fed will act...NYSE Adv/Dec 2204/1061, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2029/1091
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