STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, August 16, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, August 16, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 15, 2011

Dow 11,482.90 +213.88 (+1.86%)
Nasdaq 2,555.20 +47.22 (+1.85%)
S&P 500 1,204.49 +25.68 (+2.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.27 -0.05 (-2.28%)
30-Year Bond 3.75 -0.04 (-1.11%)

---

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 12

---

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Aug 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jul 575K 608K 629K
Aug 16 08:30 Building Permits Jul 600K 606K 624K
Aug 16 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul NA NA 0.0%
Aug 16 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul NA NA -0.1%
Aug 16 09:15 Industrial Production Jul 0.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Aug 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jul 76.6% 77.0% 76.7%

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/08/15-19/#ixzz1VBosEAcE

[Demeter]

31. Report results:

Release For Actual Forecast Consensus Prior Revised From


Housing Starts Jul 604K 575K 608K 613K 629K

Building Permits Jul 597K 600K 606K 617K 624K

Export Prices ex-ag. Jul 0.2% NA NA 0.1% 0.0%

Import Prices ex-oil Jul 0.2% NA NA -0.1%

Industrial Production Jul 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Capacity Utilization Jul 77.5% 76.6% 77.0% 76.9% 76.7%

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/08/15-19/#ixzz1VCU6NsBS

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil falls below $87 as weeklong rally stalls

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $87 a barrel Tuesday in Asia, snapping a week of gains that were fueled by investor optimism the global economy may not slow as much as feared in the second half.

Benchmark oil for September delivery was down 99 cents to $86.89 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude surged $2.50 to settle at $87.88 on Thursday.

In London, Brent crude for October delivery was down $1.21 to $108.70 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil fell below $76 on Aug. 9 on investor fear the U.S. could be headed for a recession, which would drag down demand for crude. However, later that day the U.S. Federal Reserve pledged to keep its lending rates low for the next two years.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[xchrom]

28. Brent slips on weak global data, firm dollar

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/9799412

LONDON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures fell on Tuesday, reversing the previous session's gains of nearly $2, as worries about global economic growth and a stronger dollar tempered appetite for risky assets.
The focus remained on the euro zone crisis ahead of a key meeting between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the future of the embattled single currency area.
By 1252 GMT, September Brent crude futures were $1.56 lower at $108.35 a barrel, having plumbed earlier lows of $108.39. U.S. crude fell by $1.95 cents to $85.93, having touched intra day lows of $85.72 a barrel earlier.
"We foresee further market volatility as the debt crisis remains a battleground," Standard Bank analyst James Zhang said in a note to investors.
"All eyes are on this European meeting today, so it's going to be rather choppy and volatile ahead of that," GFT Global market strategist David Morrison said. "(Oil is) reacting to the weakness in the euro, the strength in the dollar, and there is a general risk off mode...traders taking money off the table."

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. U.S. Stock Futures Slide After German Economy Almost Stalled Last Quarter

U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will decline after the biggest three-day rally in more than two years, after Germany’s economic growth almost stalled in the second quarter.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the world’s largest maker of construction and mining equipment, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the second- biggest U.S. bank by assets, declined more than 1 percent in European trading.

S&P 500 futures expiring in September retreated 1.3 percent to 1,182.9 as of 11:44 a.m. in London. The index gained 2.2 percent yesterday, erasing last week’s drop. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 108 points, or 1 percent, to 11,295 today.

“There will be a slowdown so the direction of the market is south right now,” said Walter Harecker, a Vienna-based fund manager at Semper Constantia Privatbank AG, which oversees about $11 billion. “The German news today wasn’t a big surprise, but investors are sensitive about economic data. Every little piece fits in and the market just wants to go down.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-16/u-s-stock-futures-slide-after-german-economy-almost-stalled-last-quarter.html

[xchrom]

45. US STOCKS-Wall St drops on weak German data, leaders meet

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/16/markets-stocks-idUKN1E77F0IF20110816

NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell in early trading on Tuesday after three days of gains as data showed sluggish German growth hobbled the euro zone, rekindling fears of a stagnant global economy.

Investors focused on a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy to discuss measures to contain Europe's fiscal crisis. A joint news conference was set for noon EDT (1600 GMT). For details, see

The meeting could get more attention as data showed Germany's gross domestic product expanded just 0.1 percent from April to June versus the previous quarter, missing forecasts and knocking regional growth figures below expectations. and

"Investors are relying on a strong Germany to lead Europe out of the financial mess it's in," said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group in New York.

[fasttense]

4. I like the Toon.

But it reminds me that MLK's monument is being built in China.

[Demeter]

14. Is it really?

My god, what an insult.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/12/martin-luther-king-memorial_n_925341.html

[xchrom]

5. it's a lovely morning here -- i hope it is where you are

:donut:

[Demeter]

15. Yes!

Too nice for a board meeting...maybe we can move to the patio....or the pool.

[xchrom]

18. that sounds like a great idea. nt

[xchrom]

6. europe: European Central Bank bought 22 billion in euro-zone bonds

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/European/Central/Bank/bought/22/billion/in/euro-zone/bonds/elpepueng/20110815elpeng_8/Ten

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Monday that it had bought up 22 billion euros in government bonds, in its efforts to ease the pressure on borrowing costs for Italy and Spain. The bank said early last week that it would be making such a move, but it was not until yesterday that the scale of the operation was revealed.

While the ECB did not announce exactly what percentage of the 22 billion went on which country's debt, it is understood that most was spent on Italian and Spanish bonds, with a smaller amount spent on Portuguese and Irish debt.

Yields on Spanish 10-year bonds dropped to 4.9 percent on Monday, while Italian bonds were at 4.89 percent. Both countries saw yields on those bonds as high as six percent last week, until the ECB began to intervene in the markets.

In the secondary market for sovereign debt, the Spanish risk premium (the difference between the interest rate compared to the benchmark German bund) held steady at 265 basis points.

[xchrom]

12. German GDP grows 0.1%; global stocks lose steam

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/german-gdp-grows-01-global-stocks-lose-steam/articleshow/9621995.cms

MILAN: After an optimistic start to the trading week, global stock markets lost their steam Tuesday after subdued German growth figures reinforced fears over the global economy.

Germany reported that growth almost ground to a halt in the second quarter, in another downbeat note for the global economy following similarly disappointing readings from France and the United States. Quarterly growth was only 0.1 per cent on lagging consumer spending and construction investment - putting a damper on recovery driven by booming exports that power Europe's biggest economy.

The fall in German growth was the root cause behind the fall in the eurozone's expansion to 0.2 per cent during the quarter from 0.8 per cent in the previous three month period.

``It is the really disappointing German GDP reading that is weighing on European markets today,'' said Giles Watts, head of equities at City Index.

[Demeter]

25. When **** is inevitable...

Of course, they could shut down the banksters...and the CDOs and other derivatives...after all, some of Europe finally banned short sales. It could happen.

[xchrom]

26. Eurozone economic growth stalls

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/eurozone-economic-growth-stalls-2338409.html

The UK's recovery prospects were dealt a blow today as figures revealed the country's largest export market - the eurozone - saw a dramatic slowdown in economic growth.

The 17 countries that use the euro registered a lacklustre 0.2% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) between April and June, down from 0.8% in the previous quarter, as the previously robust German economy nearly ground to a halt.

The German economy, which is Europe's largest and makes up 27% of eurozone output, expanded only 0.1% in the quarter, against 1.3% in the first three months of the year.

Economists warned continued weak eurozone growth would lead to a disappointing performance in the UK in the third quarter, which is already affected by weak domestic demand. Britain's economy slowed to 0.2% in the second quarter, from 0.5% in the previous three months.

[xchrom]

27. UK banks fund deadly cluster-bomb industry

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-banks-fund-deadly-clusterbomb-industry-2338168.html

British high-street banks, including two institutions that were bailed out by taxpayers, are investing hundreds of millions of pounds in companies that manufacture cluster bombs – despite a growing global ban outlawing the production and trade of the weapons.

The Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB, Barclays and HSBC have all provided funding to the makers of cluster bombs, even as international opinion turns against a weapons system that is inherently indiscriminate and routinely maims or kills civilians.

One year ago this month, Britain became an active participant in the Convention on Cluster Munitions, a global treaty that bans the use, production, stockpiling and transfer of cluster bombs. To date, 108 countries have signed the treaty, which also forbids parties from assisting in the production of cluster weapons.

Yet there has been no attempt by the Coalition Government to rein in banks and investment funds that continue to finance companies known to manufacture the weapons.

[xchrom]

30. Inflation: what the experts say

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/aug/16/inflation-rise-what-experts-say

Andrew Goodwin, senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young Item Club

This is really the calm before the storm: we're likely to see inflation rise significantly over the next couple of months as the large energy price hikes begin to kick in. Four of the big six suppliers have already announced big price hikes with the other two likely to follow, so the CPI rate will probably top 5% by September.

The big picture remains one of weak underlying pressures, with inflation being kept high by a series of temporary factors – the VAT rise, rising fuel prices and higher energy costs – which will remain in place for the remainder of this year and then fade away.

Colin Ellis, chief economist at the British Private Equity and Venture Capital Association

Rises in energy prices and, in particular, the VAT hike at the start of the year are still keeping inflation high. At constant tax rates, CPI inflation was 2.8% year-on-year in July. Underlying inflationary pressures are subdued, and there is still no sign of a wage-price spiral, which would force the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) hand.

[xchrom]

40. UK CPI inflation rate rises to 4.4% in July

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14540818

The UK government's targeted rate of inflation rose in July, following higher prices for clothing and footwear and fees for financial services.

The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to 4.4% from 4.2% in June, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure was unchanged at 5%.

Clothing and footwear prices measured for CPI saw their biggest annual increase since records began in 1997.

[xchrom]

43. Grocery shoppers trading down to discount chains - Kantar

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/16/uk-britain-grocers-kantar-idUKTRE77F28D20110816

(Reuters) - Sales at grocers are lagging behind price inflation as shoppers migrate to lower priced stores and trade down to cheaper goods, Kantar Worldpanel said.

The market research company said on Tuesday grocery sales rose by 3.8 percent year-on-year in the 12 weeks to Aug 7, lower than the 5.2 percent grocery price inflation during the period.

"It is evident that shoppers are trying to manage their 'personal' inflation by trading down. This can be done by seeking out lower priced outlets and cheaper alternative products," Kantar said.

That resulted in another good performance from budget chains Aldi and Lidl with Aldi growing sales by 24.4 percent and achieving an all-time record market share of 3.6 percent.

[xchrom]

38. George Soros backs joint eurozone debts to solve crisis

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14536779

George Soros has backed "eurobonds" - joint debts of the 17 eurozone members - to solve the eurozone debt crisis.

Speaking to the BBC, the billionaire investor said if European leaders fail to keep the euro together, there would be a "really serious global calamity".

He said the bonds would cut borrowing costs for heavily-indebted governments, but could be made conditional on them putting their finances in order.

Germany has publicly opposed the idea, while Italy has strongly backed it.

[xchrom]

41. Big-name Europe equity funds hit hard in August rout

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/16/uk-funds-europe-idUKTRE77F31G20110816

(Reuters) - The 10 largest European equity funds shed an aggregated 7 percent of their assets in the first two weeks of August as panic about the future of the euro zone rocked markets, leaving many scrambling to persuade clients not to redeem their stakes.

The 10 biggest European equity funds, running an indicative 23.1 billion euros (20.33 pounds)billion in assets at end-July, had lost a total of 1.6 billion euros by August 12, Lipper data showed, reflecting a loss of confidence in the health of the region's banks and the ability of policymakers to heal them.

Managers presiding over asset falls are now trying to avert the threat of client withdrawals, as tumbling share prices slash the value of the assets they run.

"I am just like every other long-only fund manager. No money is going into Europe," said John Arnold, who manages the AGF European Equity Class Fund, which was down about 10 percent in the week to August 5 after hits on key holdings like Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) and BNP Paribas BNP.PA.

[xchrom]

42. FTSE hit by dismal euro zone growth

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/16/uk-markets-britain-stocks-idUKTRE77E0MC20110816

(Reuters) - Miners and oil stocks led the leading share index lower on Tuesday on worries the global recovery was stalling, as sluggish euro zone data halted a three-day recovery rally.

Weaker-than-expected euro zone gross domestic product data intensified worries that global growth was slowing, with a below forecast reading from Germany, Europe's largest economy, having a knock-on effect in the region.

Mining and oil stocks, which tend to perform better when global growth is strong, were among the worst performers.

Out of the oils, heavyweight BP (BP.L) was a stand-out loser, down 1.9 percent.

[xchrom]

7. south asia: Sensex up by 102 points on fresh buying

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Sensex-up-by-102-points-on-fresh-buying/articleshow/9620224.cms

MUMBAI: Fresh buying in IT, metal, banking and capital goods stocks on the back of firm Asian cues pushed up the BSE benchmark Sensex by 102 points in early trade on Tuesday.

The BSE benchmark Sensex resumed higher at 17,015.99 and moved in a range between 17,035.49 and 16,927.16 before quoting at 16,941.62 at 1015 hours, a net rise of 101.99 points, or 0.61%, from its last close.

The NSE's 50-share Nifty index also moved up by 37.70 points, or 0.74%, to 5,110.65 at 1015 hours.

IT stocks rose on bargain buying after their recent losses, while mineral exploration companies National Aluminium Company, Coal India and Hindalco Industries gained after reporting strong Q1 results.

[xchrom]

8. Loan exposure cap to hit big corporates

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Loan-exposure-cap-to-hit-big-corporates/articleshow/9616481.cms

MUMBAI: The credit requirements of large corporates appear to be growing faster than the ability of large banks to raise capital. A host of companies, including Reliance Industries, HDFC, Bhel and IndianOil, are hitting the credit limits of various banks, which means that unless banks raise more capital they will have to diversify their lenders.

Bank lending to individual entities are limited by single borrower exposure limit. This single borrower limit is arrived at based on 15% of the net worth of a bank. RBI allows banks to lend an additional 5% in certain cases. However, breaches in the ceiling have to be reported by banks in their annual report.

Until now, Reliance Industries, HDFC, and Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited have been regularly touching the exposure limit with banks. However, the list of the companies with large borrowing requirements is growing. Last year, IndianOil Corporation had to borrow heavily because of the delay in revising domestic fuel prices in line with international price of fuel. Similarly, Air India, which has been facing liquidity problems, breached its borrowing ceiling with Central Bank of India. LIC Housing Finance, which has been growing faster than the mortgage industry, has resorted to large-scale borrowing from banks.

Large corporates can work around the exposure ceiling by borrowing from a host of banks or raising capital overseas. But smaller banks have much lower limits and raising funds overseas is likely to be a challenge in the short term given the risk averseness in international markets.

[xchrom]

39. Indian inflation eases back in July to 9.22%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14543605

India's inflation rate slipped slightly in July to 9.22% from 9.44%.

The fall was mainly due to a fall in food prices, but analysts still expect more interest rate rises to try to keep inflation under control.

Inflation is a major headache for the Indian government and the central bank has raised interest rates 11 times in 18 months to try to keep a lid on it.

Despite this, a senior government adviser has said he thinks inflation will stay between 9-10% this year.

[florida08]

9. S&P Downgraded Among Global Investors

Eleven days after lowering the credit rating on the U.S. for the first time, Standard & Poor’s is suffering a downgrade among global investors as American bonds are proving world beaters -- undermining S&P’s mathematical assumptions -- and prompting disbelief among political scientists months after the company upgraded China because of the stability fostered by Communist Party rule...

If anything, the decision from S&P, the largest ratings provider, resulted in an upgrade of U.S. securities as the American bond market outperformed world bond indexes during the period since the downgrade by S&P. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, the two next biggest rating companies, affirmed their AAA rankings on the U.S.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-16/s-p-downgraded-in-treasury-trading-after-upgrading-communist-rule-in-china.html
:popcorn:

[Po_d Mainiac]

29. Kinda early for the author to make that assumption

We had a couple weeks where equity markets were rolling around in the gutter with diapers overflowing. The fate of the Euro was up in the air and the House of Saud is now using knee pads to suck up to OPEC (Read: Iran)

T's were just a place to try and hide from the falling nukes.

If the U$D/FRN was holding up aginst other currencies, then yes, the world was blowing off the downgrade. Instead the buck is getting trashed. While PM's are raging.

I'll stick to my assessment that the downgrade was not that the US could default on the debt, but that the value of the currency used to make the payment, was heading towards used toilet paper status.

YMMV

[florida08]

51. I think it's heading there anyway

Trade deficit is getting worse. Private investors leaving US Bonds. Soon there will be no place to hide

An unexpectedly sharp jump in the U.S. trade deficit for June to its highest level in three years signals more trouble ahead for jobs, income and economic growth.

With the global economy sagging, demand appears to be weakening for American manufactured goods — one of the few bright spots left in the nation's recovery efforts — as a drop in exports far exceeded a decline in imports.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/12/business/la-fi-trade-imbalance-20110812

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/foreign-demand-for-treasurys-deteriorates-in-june-2011-08-15?reflink=MW_news_stmp">Foreign demand for Treasurys deteriorates in June

[xchrom]

10. World must let US dollar win currency war

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/world-must-let-us-dollar-win-currency-war/articleshow/9623324.cms

HONG KONG: Currency wars have returned, and this time the world has little choice but to let the United States win. The Fed's vow to keep US interest rates near zero until 2013 heralds a prolonged devaluation of the dollar. For export nations, the temptation is to fight back by pushing their own currencies lower. That's a mistake. Tit-for-tat devaluations are futile, and would delay the recovery of exporters' number one customer, turning a global slowdown into dreaded stagflation.

Cheap dollars threaten to revive the carry trade, where investors flock to high-yielding assets, such as the currencies of fast-growing countries. Where they go depends on how the U.S. economy responds. If recession is averted, investors will choose markets with growth like Indonesia. If not, they'll favor those that seem safe, like Japan. Some currencies are both, such as South Korea, which despite high private-sector debt offers strong government finances and strong trade.

For exporting economies, this will be unpleasant. Hot money inflows hurt exporters by pushing up the currency and the price of their exports. Already this year the Japanese yen has strengthened 5.6 percent against the dollar, prompting an abortive attempt by the Bank of Japan to push it back down. The Swiss franc has soared 21 percent, leading to talk that the Swiss National Bank may peg it against the euro.

Suppressing a currency's rise to protect exports, as China has been doing for years, is risky. It means creating more local currency and stoking inflation. Policymakers' response is often to raise interest rates, but that only attracts more hot money, creating asset price bubbles. Moreover, the unwanted effects of a strong currency pale next to the damage another U.S. recession would cause. In trying to frustrate the Fed, exporters could find themselves even worse off.

[Demeter]

11. This is how the Democratic Party Feels to Me:

[xchrom]

37. +1

[bread_and_roses]

13. K&R (n/t)

[Demeter]

16. Bank of America’s Moynihan Begs Geithner to Give Him a Positive Mortgage Talking Point

Matt Stoller pointed out this Bank of America story on Bloomberg, “BofA’s Moynihan Said to Press Geithner on Foreclosure Agreement,” which has the perverse effect of revealing how desperate the beleaguered Charlotte bank is:

Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan met Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner to press for a settlement of probes tied to the industry’s shoddy foreclosure practices….

A settlement among banks, state attorneys general and the Department of Justice would enable lenders to resolve delinquent loans and in turn allow the U.S. housing market to recover, Moynihan told the officials.

“In the states where foreclosure can take place you’re seeing the system unclog and move through,” Moynihan said during in an Aug. 10 conference call hosted by mutual fund manager Bruce Berkowitz. “That’s different than states where foreclosure is going through very slowly.”

Let’s parse what is really going on.

First, with Bank of America stock falling 12% last week from the previous Friday’s close, down 26% over the last two weeks, and credit default swap spreads widening considerably, Moynihan is desperate for any shred of good news to stem the widely growing (and accurate) perception that the bank faces a crushing wave of mortgage litigation. Yes, BoA probably probably put Countrywide into bankruptcy, but it apparently stripped its two major entities, Countrywide Financial and Countrywide Home Loans, of assets. If true, this is almost certainly fraudulent conveyance, since it was well known at the time of the deal that Countrywide was a sinkhole of liability (your truly inveighed on that issue at the time). That means at a minimum Bank of America will still be in the headlines as to whether and how much residual liability it would have to Countrywide.

Second, Moynihan’s statement, “In the states where foreclosure can take place you’re seeing the system unclog and move through,” bears a lot of scrutiny. Whether foreclosures are “moving through” may be of benefit to banks, who get paid to foreclose, but I have not seen evidence that faster foreclosures help the housing market clear. For a market to “clear” you need to find a price where enough buyers step forward to take up the available supply. Does anyone think that if someone were to wave a magic wand and put all the defaulted properties on sale tomorrow, that hedgies and speculators around the world would snap them up? It took the Resolution Trust Corporation over four years to sell conservatorship assets that that peaked in 1990, and again roughly four years to dispose of receivership assets that peaked in mid 1991. In addition, Congress was very unhappy to be appropriating funds to the RTC and it was under considerable pressure to wind up quickly. Subsequent analyses have suggested that a somewhat more attenuated process would have achieved better value for taxpayers. In fact, Treasury argued the position the opposite of Moynihan’s in defense of its HAMP program: that it was beneficial because it delayed some foreclosures, thus keeping too many from hitting the market at once and depressing housing prices. Indeed, as we mentioned in a post late last week, the evidence is the reverse, that where foreclosures are happening, it is accompanied by serious chain of title problems which buyers won’t touch due to the inability to get title insurance (cash buyers don’t need title insurance, but that is a much smaller market, and they also seem to be deterred by the lack of a clean title). So how does dumping unsellable properties onto the market help anyone, save allowing banks to collect foreclosure-related fees from investors? As we said, vacant properties are crackhouse futures....And conversely, the state which with the slowest throughput relative to serious delinquencies right now, New York, is for reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with what an AG settlement would address (and the New York AG is clearly not participating). New York state courts now require plaintiffs to certify that they have taken “reasonable” measures to verify the validity of documents submitted to the court. Now this looks like a belt and suspenders requirement, since lawyers are expected to meet that standard now. But the twist here is the certification requirement makes it easier for opposing counsel to ask that the foreclosure lawyer be sanctioned if something does not pass the smell test (normally, trying to get opposing counsel sanctioned is a sign of very bad taste and/or desperation). And more generally, it is a tough, unified message across New York courts that the judges take a dim view of slipshod procedures when people’s homes are at stake. So Moynihan is trying to imply that it is just the arbitrariness of certain states that is causing his bank grief, when it is the reverse: the states that have a decent proportion of judges that still take the rule of law seriously are where the foreclosure process is grinding to a halt. Even in Florida, with a bank-friendly judiciary, foreclosure filings by banks dropped like a stone in the wake of the robosigning scandal and have not resumed their former pace as banks have tried and not succeeded all that much in cleaning up their “paperwork” problems.

Third, Moynihan is wasting his breath talking to Geithner. Geithner isn’t driving this bus. (THANK GOD!) Remember, when the already-unwieldy 50 state AG effort came together, the Federal banking regulators decided they would get involved, as in coopt them. We noted early on the leader of the AG effort, Tom Miller, was way too cozy with Treasury and was rumored to be angling to become the head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau...But now that the Feds decided to rope in the states, they are stuck with this tar baby. They wanted this grand global pact to “put this all behind them”. The Federal regulators could have done a deal on their own in January and have been done with it. Instead, we’ve been told regularly since then that a deal is “weeks away”.
...Finally, a state AG settlement buys Moynihan little more than a soundbite. The reason to try to get the AGs out of this type of litigation is first, that AG lawsuits get a lot of press attention, and second they facilitate suits by private parties, both by legitimating them (very important for risk and controversy averse organizations like investment managers) and lower the cost by road testing legal theories and providing information that other plaintiffs can leverage. The problem is enough AGs are proceeding with mortgage lawsuits against banks so as to render that advantage moot. New York’s Eric Schneiderman is moving ahead in a very systematic way, and Delaware’s Beau Biden seems to be moving in concert. Massachusetts’ Martha Coakley is also pushing ahead, albeit on different mortgage issues. Nevada’s Catherine Masto has a major anti-Countrywide suit outstanding that she has no intention of dropping. Karmala Harris in California has nibbled at some foreclosure related issues and may proceed on a broader basis. Colorado’s John Suthers is apparently also likely not to participate in the settlement, which means he may file litigation....Moreover, any state AG settlement does not restrict private parties’ rights to sue. It won’t stop the $10+ billion AIG action against Countrywide, nor will it bar the various private efforts to derail BofA’s $8.5 billion mortgage settlement. And it will not stop borrowers from using chain of title issues to fight foreclosures. The spectacle of the Bank of America CEO begging for an insider fix to a broad based, multi-headed problem isn’t just pathetic, it suggests Moynihan may be in denial as to how deep the rot in his institution runs. He is in the beginning stages of getting an expensive education.

[Po_d Mainiac]

21. And the 400lb primate

now standing in the center of the floor, and getting some attention..PUTBACKS!

Fund managers, regional credit unions, foreign banks, and private investors groups who where sold fraudulently packaged MBS are taking their claims to the courts. It's only a matter of time before the GSE's will be forced to do the same.

Any income relief from servicing foreclosures, should be short lived.

Bank of A'holes may be praying that Tiny Turbo will be their savior, but the pea brained tax cheat can not dictate to State judiciaries under the law.

[Demeter]

32. And when has the law ever stopped the pirates?

This is our last best chance....if the law is upheld, the republic may actually be saved.

[Po_d Mainiac]

46. Some privateers did a number on the pirate trade

a few hundred years ago.

The courts can be a different world. Even Big Pharma has has their asses handed to them in a hat.

[Festivito]

17. Debt: 08/12/2011 14,587,192,870,422.65 (DOWN 718,435,573.30) (Fri, UP a little.)

(UNDER the new 2011 debt limit of 14.694-trillion dollars by 293.193-billion dollars. Good day.)
Open window weather returns.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,921,178,729,715.63 + 4,666,014,140,707.02
UP 32,128,181.66 + DOWN 750,563,754.96

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 313-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,198.43 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.60, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,653,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $46,656.06.
A family of three owes $139,968.17. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 10,176,125,845.60.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,140,900,676.48.
The average for the last 31 days would be 7,878,290,977.24.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 215 reports in 316 days of FY2011 averaging 4.77B$ per report, 3.25B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 527 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.3 and 18.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/12/2011 14,587,192,870,422.65 BHO (UP 3,960,315,821,509.57 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +1,025,569,839,530.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,184,598,074,141.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/25/2011 -000,991,970,057.94 --- Mon
07/26/2011 +000,075,256,672.36 ------------*******
07/27/2011 +000,470,569,863.89 ------------********
07/28/2011 +005,447,179,210.73 ------------*********
07/29/2011 +002,605,572,370.14 ------------*********
08/01/2011 +027,273,368,503.87 ------------********** Mon
08/02/2011 +124,683,694,907.85 ------------***********
08/03/2011 -000,098,125,325.28 ----
08/04/2011 -012,807,553,395.89 -
08/05/2011 +020,147,316,949.47 ------------**********
08/08/2011 +000,521,563,614.23 ------------******** Mon
08/09/2011 +000,429,866,034.74 ------------********
08/10/2011 +000,350,635,620.42 ------------********
08/11/2011 +004,850,153,175.74 ------------*********
08/12/2011 +000,032,128,181.66 ------------*******

172,989,656,325.99 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4961460&mesg_id=4961486

[Festivito]

56. Debt: 08/15/2011 14,615,567,348,203.71 (UP 28,374,477,781.06) (Mon, UP a lot.)

(UNDER the new 2011 debt limit of 14.694-trillion dollars by 321.567-billion dollars. Good day.)
Ben pays so much attention to me now.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,946,617,880,447.03 + 4,668,949,467,756.68
UP 25,439,150,731.40 + UP 2,935,327,049.66

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 313-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,198.20 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.59, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,675,392 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $46,743.58.
A family of three owes $140,230.74. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 12,392,021,568.68.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,087,482,483.70.
The average for the last 31 days would be 8,794,337,887.45.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 216 reports in 319 days of FY2011 averaging 4.88B$ per report, 3.30B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 524 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.3 and 19.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/15/2011 14,615,567,348,203.71 BHO (UP 3,988,690,299,290.63 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +1,053,944,317,312.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,205,923,748,648.53 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/26/2011 +000,075,256,672.36 ------------*******
07/27/2011 +000,470,569,863.89 ------------********
07/28/2011 +005,447,179,210.73 ------------*********
07/29/2011 +002,605,572,370.14 ------------*********
08/01/2011 +027,273,368,503.87 ------------********** Mon
08/02/2011 +124,683,694,907.85 ------------***********
08/03/2011 -000,098,125,325.28 ----
08/04/2011 -012,807,553,395.89 -
08/05/2011 +020,147,316,949.47 ------------**********
08/08/2011 +000,521,563,614.23 ------------******** Mon
08/09/2011 +000,429,866,034.74 ------------********
08/10/2011 +000,350,635,620.42 ------------********
08/11/2011 +004,850,153,175.74 ------------*********
08/12/2011 +000,032,128,181.66 ------------*******
08/15/2011 +025,439,150,731.40 ------------********** Mon

199,420,777,115.33 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4962474&mesg_id=4962540

[xchrom]

19. asia: Asian stocks mixed as world markets firm

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/asian-stocks-mixed-as-world-markets-firm/articleshow/9622800.cms

HONG KONG: Asian stocks were mixed on Tuesday, despite impressive gains at the start of the week and a positive lead from Wall Street.

Tokyo finished 0.23 percent, or 21.02 points, up at 9,107.43 and Seoul added a whopping 4.83 percent, or 86.56 points, to 1,879.87, after a public holiday on Monday.

Hong Kong closed 0.24 percent, or 48.02 points, lower at 21,212.08 and Shanghai was down 0.71 percent, or 18.60 points, at 2,608.17.

Sydney was 0.86 percent, or 35.6 points, off, closing at 4,247.3.

Asia's main bourses had recorded a very strong start to the week after a turbulent few days that had seen big falls, with traders scrambling to follow almost any lead.

[xchrom]

20. Brand-conscious consumers see brand failure as a threat to their self-image

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/et-cetera/brand-conscious-consumers-see-brand-failure-as-a-threat-to-their-self-image/articleshow/9622964.cms

WASHINGTON: A new study by a University of Illinois marketing expert has indicated that consumers with close ties to a brand respond to negative information about the beloved brand as they do to personal failure - they experience it as a threat to their self-image.

Tiffany Barnett White, a professor of business administration, said consumers with a high self-brand connection maintained favourable brand evaluations even when presented with negative brand information, suggesting that the reluctance of brand-conscious consumers to lower their opinion of a brand might be driven more by a motivation to protect the self.

"When companies get consumers motivated about their products, they are just as motivated to protect the brand as they are themselves," White said.

"So it's really more about the self than the brand. When people can self-affirm through other means and activities, they're not defensive at all," added White.

[Po_d Mainiac]

22. Like when a NASCAR whacks a wall real hard? n/t

[xchrom]

23. ...

:spray:

or like me if the current seasons prada shoe line experiences fashion fail...:scared: :cry:

[Tansy_Gold]

24. I know some of these consumers. They're icky.

I would love to read this study. thanks for the link!


TG

[Fuddnik]

35. Look at my Harley funny, and I'll blow up your Honda!

[Po_d Mainiac]

47. Unless it was an AMF

Then a funny look meant it was leaking fluid, again :rofl:

[Fuddnik]

50. We used to have an old saying......

"Better to have your sister in a whorehouse, than your brother on a Honda".

And it wasn't leaking, it was marking it's territory.

[Po_d Mainiac]

52. Those AMF Harley's did get gr8 gas milage

from riding in the ass end of pick-ups :evilgrin:

[Fuddnik]

53. I had one AMF bike. A '77 Low Rider,

They only made 1000 of them that year for a market test, and I got my hands on one of them. But, by the time I was done with it, it was un-AMFed. Bored, stroked, Barnett, S&S, etc.

Now, I'm still riding a '97 Electra Glide. It gets almost as good mileage as the Prius.

[Tansy_Gold]

55. Sorry

Don't have a Honda.

I like my S10 Blazer, but I'm not wedded to it.

[happyslug]

44. What else is new?

There are three parts of every sale, the Pre-sale, the actual sale and the Post-sale. The Pre-sale is the most important of the three, but a close second is the post-sale, i.e. keeping the person satisfied that the sale was the best thing they ever did. The actual sale is, at best, a very poor third. Yes, you have to be paid, but the pre-sale and post sale are MUCH more important.

Marketeers have understood this for decades, and thus why advertisement are produced, not only to get people to buy something, but also to support people who HAD bought the item.

Dictators have understood this, thus the massive propaganda used in such dictatorships, AND so do American politicians, this is why they do things to get in the Media to show what good they are doing even AFTER an election (i.e. to give people who voted for them more evidence why voting for them was a good thing in the first place).

[Demeter]

33. Off on the Roller-Coaster of Life

See you if I get back....

[xchrom]

34. now i want to go on a roller coaster

:hi: have a good day.

[xchrom]

36. Gold rises as euro zone debt concerns resurface

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/9799387

LONDON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Tuesday ahead of a summit between French and German leaders on the euro zone debt crisis, though the precious metal pared gains after rating agency Fitch affirmed its triple-A rating on the United States.
The Fitch news helped European shares and the euro rise from lows, although they remained under pressure after poorly received German and euro zone growth data stoked concerns the region may be far from recovering its economic footing.
Spot gold was up 0.5 percent at $1,773.59 an ounce at 1347 GMT, partially reversing a correction it began late last week after hitting a record $1,813.79 on Thursday. It is up 25 percent this year, driven by worries over U.S. and euro zone debt.
"The broader market is still nervous and uncertain ahead of the Merkel/Sarkozy meeting today," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital.

[DemReadingDU]

48. Is It Safe to Buy Stocks Again?

8/16/11 Is It Safe to Buy Stocks Again?

With the markets trying to recover from the most vicious summer sell-off since all the way back in 2010, there's one important question facing those investors: Is it safe to buy stocks again? Jon Fisher, a portfolio manager with Fifth Third Asset Management says yes, sort of.

Fisher says Fifth Third upped its cash levels on August 1st and 2nd due to concerns over the nature of the debt ceiling debate. While it was the right move, not even Fisher expected it to be so right, so fast. Given the speed of the whoosh, and subsequent bounce, he's "not willing to force money back into the market" until we get closer to the October earnings season.

His logic for waiting it out until Autumn is two-fold:

1) He and the Fifth Third posse thinks the forces driving the market lower had little to do with the actual businesses themselves but rather talk of recession, unemployment, and buffoonery in Washington, D.C.; forces capable of wreaking havoc with even the most well-picked stocks.

2) Fisher thinks the earnings for this quarter will still be strong enough to drive equities higher, but not until investors get a chance to see Q3 results firsthand.

more...
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/safe-buy-stocks-again-133246925.html%20?sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=


I sold my few stocks 3 years ago, and never plan to speculate in stocks again. But others may plan differently.

[xchrom]

49. Emerging Markets Not Yet a Buy, JPMorgan Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-16/emerging-stocks-not-yet-a-buy-jpmorgan.html

Emerging-market stocks may not have reached their lows because inflation has yet to slow in the so- called BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“We are probably very close to the lows of the year; the reason I don’t emphatically say this is the buying moment is we still have an inflation problem in the big emerging markets,” Adrian Mowat, the chief Asia and emerging-market strategist at JPMorgan, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.5 percent to 1,018.5 at 5:16 p.m. in Hong Kong. The gauge has slumped 12 percent this year, compared with a 6.4 percent drop in the MSCI World Index of developed nations, as countries from India to Brazil raised borrowing costs to curb rising consumer prices. The MSCI BRIC (MXBRIC) Index has fallen 14 percent in 2011.

India’s wholesale price index rose 9.22 percent in July, the commerce ministry said today, the eighth month of inflation above 9 percent. The central bank has increased interest rates 11 times since the start of last year. China’s July inflation rate of 6.5 percent was the highest in three years and compares with an official target of 4 percent.

[Ghost Dog]

54. Stocks Fall as Europe Floats Financial Tax

U.S. stocks fell for the first time in four days and the euro slid from a three-week high against the dollar as France and Germany said they will propose a financial transaction tax and rejected the sale of common European bonds. Treasuries rallied, while oil and copper slid.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1 percent to 1,192.5 at 2:09 p.m. in New York after rallying 7.5 percent in the three previous sessions, its biggest jump since March 2009. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.1 percent following weaker- than-forecast economic growth in the region. The euro slipped 0.2 percent to $1.4416. Ten-year Treasury yields lost eight basis points to 2.23 percent. Copper fell 1.1 percent while oil dropped 1.5 percent...

...Germany and France are working on “ambitious” joint proposals to defend the euro, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. The two countries share an “absolute determination” to defend the euro, Sarkozy told reporters in Paris today after talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He said the two countries would propose a financial transaction tax in September, without providing specifics. A European financial- transaction tax was rejected in 2010.

Merkel and Sarkozy rejected euro bonds and expanding the 440 billion-euro ($633 billion) rescue fund. They proposed debt limits be written into national law and establishing a “euro council” to be headed by European Union President Herman van Rompuy as part of a planned “economic government” for Europe...

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-16/asian-stocks-gain-on-takeovers-valuations-euro-trades-near-3-week-high.html

----


PARIS | Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:01pm BST (Reuters) - The leaders of France and Germany unveiled wide-reaching plans on Tuesday for closer euro zone integration, including deficit limits and biannual summits, but said joint euro bonds could only be a longer-term option.

Under heavy pressure to restore confidence in the euro zone following a dramatic market slump, President Nicolas Sarkozy and Chancellor Angela Merkel stopped short of increasing the euro zone's EFSF rescue fund but vowed to stand shoulder-to-shoulder in defending the single currency.

Their message was that the focus should be on further economic integration rather than signing bailout cheques.

In a further rap to financial market players, whose panic-selling this month wiped some $4 trillion (2.42 trillion pounds) off global stocks and sparked a temporary ban in Europe on short-selling, the two leaders also proposed taxing financial transactions.

In plans to be sent on Wednesday to European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, the two leaders want a president to be elected to represent the euro zone and twice-yearly meetings of the leaders of the embattled 17-nation bloc.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/16/uk-eurozone-idUKTRE77E1IR20110816