STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, August 9, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du





STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, August 9, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 8, 2011

Dow 10,809.85 -634.76 (-5.87%)
Nasdaq 2,357.69 -174.72 (-7.41%)
S&P 500 1,119.46 -79.92 (-7.14%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.38 +0.07 (+3.07%)
30-Year Bond 3.71 +0.05 (+1.42%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 12

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Aug 09 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2 -0.6% -0.6% 1.8%
Aug 09 08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q2 2.0% 2.2% 0.7%
Aug 09 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Aug 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/#ixzz1UWv57sF5

[Pale Blue Dot]

33. Productivity in U.S. Falls for Second Straight Quarter as Labor Costs Rise

The productivity of U.S. workers dropped from April through June for the second consecutive quarter, pushing labor costs up from 2010’s record low.

The measure of employee output per hour decreased at a 0.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter after a 0.6 percent drop in the prior three months, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 0.9 percent decrease. Expenses per employee climbed at a 2.2 percent rate.

Falling efficiency and rising costs hurt profits and mean companies like AutoNation Inc. have less incentive to take on staff or increase pay, representing another obstacle to the recovery after growth almost stalled in the first half of the year. Federal Reserve policy makers, meeting today, are facing mounting pressure to do more to bolster the world’s largest economy as shares plunge.

“A lot of red flags are being raised,” Jonathan Basile, a senior economist at Credit Suisse in New York, said before the report. “Profits could be lower. More labor-cost cuts are coming. Wage growth will slow from here on.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/productivity-in-u-s-falls-for-second-straight-quarter-as-labor-costs-rise.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

35. Futures are taking a hit after this news. Still up, though. nt

[Demeter]

41. +140 at 9 AM

It seems likely, between bargain hunting and over-reaction. Much more than that would be unlikely, even with PPT.

[Demeter]

61. And it lasted all of 15 minutes

then dropped 100.

[whathappened]

113. that won't stop them

the way i read this , its all the workers fault , they just arent produceing enought , most of the workers are doing 2 to 3 jobs at there place of work , for the same mone , well the head honchos bleed the money off the top , we need a national strike , to get there heads back out of the clouds of money there hideing

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil tumbles below $80 amid US recession fears

PARIS – Oil prices tumbled to their lowest in almost a year Tuesday in Europe amid a global sell-off of equities and commodities triggered by investor fears the U.S. will soon fall into recession.

Benchmark oil for September delivery was down $2.12 to $79.19 a barrel in early afternoon time in Europe in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the session, the contract fell to $78.09, the lowest since September 2010. Crude fell $5.57, or 6.4 percent, to settle at $81.31 on Monday.

In London, Brent crude was down $2.05 at $101.69 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

A downgrade of U.S. debt one notch from AAA to AA+ by Standard & Poor's announced Friday sparked investor panic this week. Oil traders often look to equities as a barometer of overall investor confidence, and Monday the Dow Jones industrials plunged 634.76 points, or 5.6 percent, the sixth-worst point decline for the Dow in the last 112 years.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Tansy_Gold]

15. "Investor panic" my ass

These are not "investors" at all. They are gamblers and speculators.

I want someone to explain this to me:

You have a successful business that you've built from scratch. You own it lock, stock, and barrel. You're making a very comfortable living from it. WHY would you take it "public" and sell stock in it? WHY would you let other people come in and own a part of your company and have to pay them dividends in perpetuity? If you need money for expansion, why not borrow it, pay it back with interest, and then have done with it?

I can understand, sort of, that having some of the stock out there being traded helps the company's bottom line in terms of the value of its own stock. And I understand that this can enable the company then to borrow more to expand and/or borrow at a more favorable rate.

But in the long run, doesn't that leave the company vulnerable to bubbles? Or is this lust for growth a cultural thing that's become integral to our way of life? Make more! Sell more! Everyone needs one!

I'm not a very good consumer. I don't buy things unless I need them. I don't have 150 pair of never-worn shoes under my bed. I don't run out and buy new dishes on impulse because they're on sale. I have a tendency to drive my cars until they're well beyond the point of reparable. Is there something wrong with me? Why don't I get it?



Tansy Gold, denser than normal today

[DemReadingDU]

19. Makes sense to me

Perhaps after this global financial Ponzi bubble bursts, and those TPTF banks and corporations close down, I think we will have to rebuild our communities around the small businesses who serve customers in the neighborhood.

[Po_d Mainiac]

38. Multiples of earnings

At least that used to be the basis for a market valuation. (Six consecutive positive earnings quarters was also required prior to NASDAQ)

Let's use 'Mdme Gold's Fine Jewelry and Buffed Rocks' as an example:
Last years net was $750K. An IPO at P/E 15:1 pops your cash account to a tad over $5Million if you retain a 51% share.

Cue Dire Straits "Money for Nothing"

[Tansy_Gold]

42. But that still doesn't answer the question

The corporation then has to pay out dividends -- doesn't it? -- in perpetuity, either from the original IPO (which would make it a true Ponzi scheme) or from earnings. For fucking ever. Why? Why not be like the Kochs and just hang onto it? Is it greed? Is that the only motivating factor?


TG, just askin'

[Demeter]

45. Very few corporations pay dividends

including some really big ones that ought to. They are too greedy.

[Po_d Mainiac]

51. Its a valid question

But, the cash from an offering is in your pocket vs w8ing 15 years to get the same return. If you retain controlling interest (and own your BOD) you also draw a nice salary as CEO.

When you get to the stage that you have more money than you can possible spend, you take the Koch/Buffet route. That isn't greed for $. It's greed for POWER.

When I sold my store/shop I pocketed the equivalent of approx. 6 years income. I could have retained the business, and wood be a bit ahead today if profits just remained constant.

But by selling out, look at all the fun I missed over the last 8 years. Getting to run a business and manage employees while getting chemo wood be just too much fun.

The point is, many people will take the sure thing over uncertainty, a majority of the time.

[Tansy_Gold]

53. But that's different

You sold your investment and got out. You built up the business (I assume) to where it was worth enough for you to sell it and "retire."

I'm talking about the equating of the stock market with the health of the economy, and I contend they are completely divorced from each other. "Stock" is no longer a tangible reality because the people who "own" the stock really don't "own" anything in the business; their "ownership" is the equivalent of a gambler's "ownership" of a stack of poker chips.

And if in fact the issue ultimately is just greed and power, then we're back to the same premise. It's not about the economy at all.



TG

[Po_d Mainiac]

59. I see were you're going. There are 2 markets

One is conventional investors.

The other is often confused with investing. That being the 'day traders' and the HFT's. IMHO, neither contribute shit to providing capital to the markets. I wood not shed tears if their rotting carcasses were spread eagle'd in a desert.

[Tansy_Gold]

63. Exactly, exactly, exactly.

And I know a few places in the desert. . . . . . . . my front yard, maybe? i could sell tickets????




TG

[AnneD]

157. Cue the music.....

Circle of Life.....

I'll herd the wildebeest through. Can you comp me some tickets TG?

[Demeter]

44. Some Businesses Go Public So the Owner Can "Retire"

Take the money and run. Sometimes, they start new ventures with it. Sometimes, they go all philanthropic, like Bill Gates. And sometimes, they get seduced by the IPO glamour.

Business people today do not look upon their businesses as a craft, or a proprietary activity, or a life's work. They look on it as a money machine. If the money isn't rolling in fast enough (or if the returns on going public are simply outrageous), they go public. Some of them later regret it.

Borders original owner sold to one of those wheeler-dealers, who went public and borrowed a LOT of money at under the worst terms at the wrong time and frivoled it away. Borders is no more.

[Tansy_Gold]

49. That is exactly why I said "investors" is a bullshit term

None of these scenarios is based on what I would think of as a "traditional" model of investing. It's all speculation, it's all based on the ability to buy the stock low and sell it high and not worry about whether the company itself actually does anything. If that is indeed the case, then the stock market is completely detached from the economy and means nothing except as a game for the uber-rich.

Am I wrong?

Or am I just



Tansy Gold

[Po_d Mainiac]

54. Ask yourself this

What/when is the return on an investment?

[Tansy_Gold]

62. My notion of "investment" is based on long-term expectations

rather than get in, get out, get rich. I guess that goes back to the days of long- and short-term capital gains.

If you invest in a company by buying its stock, you expect the returns an owner would expect. An owner doesn't sell out; an owner owns and operates and develops.

What we have now is not that kind of ownership model. Now EVERYTHING is buy low, sell high and fast, get the hell out. The idea of actually EARNING anything, either by doing the real work or by investing in the ownership of companies that do, is no longer valid.



TG

[Demeter]

60. It's Worse than That, Tansy

Too many wheeler-dealers buy a company, load it with debt, and asset-strip it. Then it collapses, throwing local economy into depression. That's what Mergers and Acquisitions is all about. They might as well fly the Jolly Roger while they're at it.

[Tansy_Gold]

64. Yes, and that goes back to the "two models" Po'd brought up

This is linked, the sociologist in me says, to that all-American notion of work being evil and unearned wealth being a sign of God's grace. :puke:



TG

[bhikkhu]

103. Wendell Berry wrote a nice piece on that awhile back

talking about how most people's ambition, and the ambition they give to their kids as well, is to be unemployed. Sooner is better than later, and that always seems to be the goal. Very few people actually value work, at least by the way they speak and talk about it.

Personally, I enjoy work and can't imagine what retirement would be like, though it would be nice to be a paycheck or two ahead...

[Tansy_Gold]

154. I will have to look for that

It sounds fascinating, and I'm curious to see how Berry's theory meshes with William Morris's.




Tansy Gold, big fan of William Morris (and I don't mean the talent agency)

[bhikkhu]

175. I think it was an essay in this one:

"Bringing It to the Table: On Farming and Food"...fairly sure. A great book anyway.

[Po_d Mainiac]

106. When the courts forced the BOD's

To only consider benefits to shareholders, and disregard the community and employees, things went to shit in a big way.

The stage was set for the corporate raider, and employee trust funds became free financing to the shittiest of A'holes. Enter Fuqua, Icon, Koch and list goes on.

[Warpy]

131. The financial advisor I inherited with the portfolio despairs of my own

inability to spend money. Although I've replaced the thrift shop clothing gone to rags, it's been enough of a challenge to find natural fiber clothing in something besides Muppet colors that my 1946 closet is holding everything just fine. I scratch my head in bewilderment at the walk in closets I see on HGTV that would have housed another roommate in Boston.

I'm afraid the next few years are going to be very trying ones for the acquisitive types who try to fill all the empty spots in their lives with stuff as the plutocracy finds out anew what happens when they starve the peasants.

[rdking647]

167. because selling stock is cheaper than debt

Yes you dilute your ownership stake but in general you still retain control of the company.
And in general you only pay dividends if your profitable. debt has to be repaid no matter what and if you fail you go out of business. You can suspend dividends any time

[xchrom]

24. Brent crude turns positive, investors edge back into risk assets

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/us-oil-markets-idUSTRE7782AH20110809

(Reuters) - Brent crude shook off sharp losses to gain over $1 on Tuesday, supported as investors edged back into riskier assets after a sharp sell off in recent sessions.

By 7:39 a.m. EDT, Brent crude was up $1.15 at $104.89, having minutes earlier touched the day's high of $105.35.


***that's the whole article -- don't know what is happening or why.

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. U.S. Stock Futures Climb; S&P 500 May Rebound From Biggest Loss Since 2008

U.S. stock futures advanced, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebound from its biggest loss since 2008, as investors awaited the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting.

Contracts on the S&P 500 expiring in September added 1.1 percent to 1,123.3 at 6:55 a.m. in New York after earlier rising as much as 3.3 percent and falling as much as 3.2 percent. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 94 points, or 0.9 percent, to 10,820.

U.S. stocks tumbled yesterday amid concern that S&P’s downgrade of the nation’s credit rating will worsen the country’s economic slowdown. Every stock in the S&P 500 retreated for the first time since at least 1996 as the index’s 10 main groups all tumbled more than 5.3 percent.

Fed policy makers are meeting today and plan to issue a statement at about 2:15 p.m. New York time. By a 52 percent to 48 percent margin, respondents in a Bloomberg News survey said the central bank would ease policy this year through monetary tools or statement language. If the Federal Open Market Committee acts, 59 percent said it would communicate that the federal funds rate, balance sheet or both will remain especially stimulative for a longer period or more specific amount of time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/u-s-stock-futures-gain-after-s-p-500-sustains-its-biggest-loss-since-2008.html

[Po_d Mainiac]

12. Yesterday's price tag

$7.6T (trillion) drop in global stock valuations.

A mere scratch. Just rub some dirt on it, no one will notice.

[xchrom]

4. a very good morning to everyone!

:donut: i hope everyone survived all the excitement yesterday?

[Tansy_Gold]

6. And a good morning to you, too!

:donut:

Survived here in fine shape. All geared up for more of the same.


:hi:



TG

[Po_d Mainiac]

11. Morning

:donut:

[Demeter]

46. We got some serious rain last night

and it's relatively cool and fresh.

I'm going to have a thin weekend, as I'm going up North for Sunday, which means doing more work than usual on Saturday....and Friday is Euchre night.

Need a theme....

[xchrom]

5. asia:Trade in rice futures back, halts from get-go

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20110809a2.html

No quotation was given for rice futures contracts on the Tokyo Grain Exchange on Monday when Japan restarted rice futures trading for the first time in 72 years, as the bourse was forced to halt trading amid massive buy orders triggered by fears of tighter supply.

The bourse was forced to impose a "circuit breaker" trading-suspension mechanism for the contracts for the Koshihikari rice brand from the Kanto region surrounding Tokyo after they came under a barrage of buy orders placed at bids exceeding the ¥600 maximum allowable margin for a one-day price rise.

The orders were triggered by speculation that prices will soar as a result of a tighter supply stemming from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, radiation leaks at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant, and July's deluge of rain in the prefectures of Niigata, Fukushima and other rice-producing regions.

On the Kansai Commodities Exchange, meanwhile, where different trading-suspension rules are followed, a Koshihikari brand from the Hokuriku region for delivery in January exchanged hands at ¥19,210 per 60-kg bag at 9 a.m.

[xchrom]

7. Current account surplus sank 50% in June

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20110809a3.html

Japan's current account surplus plunged a preliminary 50.2 percent to ¥526.9 billion in June, the government said Monday.

Compared with the previous year, the balance of international payments — the widest gauge of trade for a country — shrank for the fourth consecutive month, the Finance Ministry said in a preliminary report.

The balance of trade in goods logged a surplus of ¥131.5 billion, turning around for the first time in three months after sinking in the wake of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

The services trade balance, however, remained in the red with a deficit of ¥120.6 billion, reflecting the decline in foreign visitors to Japan as the scale of the disaster and subsequent nuclear emergency became known.

[xchrom]

8. U.S. debt downgrade leaves China in a bind

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-markets-china-debt-20110809,0,1176252.story

Reporting from Beijing and Washington—
The downgrade of U.S. government debt has put China, the United States' largest creditor, in a tough spot.

Though Beijing has scolded the United States over "its addiction to debts," Chinese officials are caught in a double bind — unable to dump their mountain of U.S. dollars and at the same time getting a tongue-lashing from their own citizens for being Uncle Sam's hapless banker.

The Chinese government has built what is now the world's second-largest economy in part by keeping its currency cheap in order to subsidize exports. To do that, it has bought gobs of U.S. Treasury bills and other securities. Any big move on China's part to unload its $1.2-trillion-plus trove of American debt would only result in a self-inflicted wound: sinking the value of the dollar further and eroding the value of its own reserves.

For the moment, at least, the economic and political consequences of dumping dollars are likely to keep Beijing from taking any such drastic action.

[xchrom]

9. Asian markets recover after early losses

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/08/asian-markets-recover-after-a-day-of-steep-losses-.html

Asian stocks rebounded after a volatile day of trading Tuesday that sent markets nosediving in the morning before clawing back to more stable territory.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average closed down 1.7% to 8,944.48 after losing more then 4% earlier in the day and briefly reaching its lowest level since March 15, the aftermath of the nation's devastating earthquake and tsunami.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell 3.2% and Canon, the world's largest camera maker, slid 1.9%. Inpex Corp., Japan's biggest oil exploration company lost 5.5% in response to falling oil prices, which dropped to $78 a barrel amid a dumping of commodities.

Trading swung even more wildly on Australia's S&P/ASX200 which hit a two-year low in the morning before turning around at noon to end the day at a gain of 1.2% to 4,034.80.

[xchrom]

13. Japan on watch as yen rises, stocks plunge

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/us-japan-economy-noda-idUSTRE77802G20110809

(Reuters) - Japanese policymakers voiced growing alarm on Tuesday as the yen scaled highs seen before last week's intervention and global stock markets crumbled under mounting fears of a new financial crisis.

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda on several occasions repeated the mantra that he was watching markets closely as the dollar slid below 77 yen, under levels that spurred Tokyo to take action on August 4.

He indicated that authorities would wait to see market reaction to U.S. Federal Reserve decisions later in the day (2:15 p.m. EDT) before deciding whether to act again.

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa showed similar levels of concern, telling parliament he needed to be particularly mindful of the risks that a strong yen poses to the Japanese economy.

[xchrom]

28. Analysis: Don't bank on China to reprise 2008 global savior role

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/us-china-economy-stimulus-idUSTRE7780R620110809

(Reuters) - China is still nursing a hangover from its 2008 stimulus spending spree and may be reluctant to kick off another big round, leaving less potent options on the table should the global economy tilt toward a cliff.

Just two weeks ago, economists were banking on at least one more interest rate rise from the People's Bank of China this year because inflation remained hot. Indeed, Tuesday's figures showed it hit a fresh three-year high at 6.5 percent.

But the worsening global economic outlook has many people predicting a policy about-face. Asia's stock markets tumbled on Tuesday as investors fretted over the risk of another U.S. recession and deepening debt crisis in Europe.

"It's time for Beijing to announce to the whole world that it will try to stimulate domestic demand again," said Tang Yunfei, an analyst with Founder Securities in Beijing.

[xchrom]

52. South Korea Bans Short Selling Amid Turmoil

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904140604576497833745164442.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW

SEOUL—South Korea cracked down on short selling of stocks as it sought to shore up a plunging share market, the latest reminder of how Asia's fourth-largest economy remains vulnerable to capital flight in times of global economic turmoil.

The market regulator said it will ban the short-selling of all publicly traded stocks from Aug. 10 to Nov. 9, while a cap on listed companies' share buybacks will also be eased during the same period in order to encourage stock purchases.

[xchrom]

69. World Bank blocks Cambodia loans amid Boeung Kak row

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14457573

The World Bank has stopped loans to Cambodia amid a dispute over the forced evictions of thousands of people.

The organisation, which provides up to $70m (£43m) in loans for Cambodia each year, said it would not resume lending until the government settles the row.

Ministers have allowed a property developer to fill in a huge lake in the middle of Phnom Penh to build luxury flats and upmarket shops.

The development has destroyed villages and forced thousands from their homes.

[xchrom]

71. Fukushima plant owner Tepco reports $7.4bn loss

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14455226

Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco), the owner of the Fukushima nuclear plant damaged in March's earthquake and tsunami, has reported a quarterly loss of 571.8bn yen ($7.4bn; £4.5bn)

The loss includes 400bn yen put aside by Tepco to compensate victims of the disaster, which forced 80,000 people to be evacuated from the area around the Fukushima plant.

It gave no forecast for the full year.

The company said there was too much uncertainty over the ongoing crisis.

[xchrom]

72. Asian stocks under pressure but rebound from early fall

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14454406

Asian markets remained under pressure on Tuesday after Wall Street posted its biggest declines since late 2008.

Falls of as much as 10% were seen in early trading, and Japan's Nikkei 225 index closed 1.7% lower, with South Korea's Kospi down 3.6%.

However, by the end of Asian trading, some markets had rebounded, while others pared losses.

Analysts said that a number of stocks had lost so much in recent sessions that they looked like good value again.

[xchrom]

10. Key U.S. stock indexes now in bear markets

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/08/bear-market-stocks-wall-street-economy-recession-bull-.html

Unless stocks reverse quickly, Wall Street statisticians will mark April 29 of this year as the end date of the bull market that was born in March 2009, in the depths of the last recession.

As faith in the economic recovery has evaporated, a number of broad market indexes now have fallen more than 20% from their multiyear highs reached on April 29. A drop of more than 20% is the usual threshold for a decline to be considered a new bear market, unless the sell-off is short-lived.

Bear The New York Stock Exchange composite index, which plunged 7.1% in Monday’s market meltdown, now is off 20.5% from its spring high.

Indexes of small- and mid-size company shares are much deeper into bear-market territory after Monday’s losses. Because those stocks are much less liquid than blue chips, they often collapse quickly in horrendous sell-offs as buyers disappear.

[xchrom]

14. Market rout deepens global economic crisis

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/us-crisis-idUSL6E7J707B20110809

(Reuters) - The global economy stumbled deeper into crisis as stock markets slumped further on Tuesday, with investors losing confidence that the United States and Europe can rein in their debt burdens quickly and avert a double-dip recession.

Even as Asian equity markets pulled back from another day of staggering losses as they closed, European shares tumbled for an eighth session running, with news of an unexpected drop in British factory output in June highlighting the weakness of the economy.

The worsening market trauma has piled pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to announce fresh measures of support for the U.S. economy at a regular policy meeting on Tuesday, but analysts said its options are limited.

"You have got to a situation of capitulation and panic selling, and these things will keep running until we get some sort of policy response," said Peter Hickson, managing director of global commodity research at UBS.

[Tansy_Gold]

16. I need more explanation

In what way is this a "global crisis"? How is the decline in over-inflated stock prices going to affect the day to day workings of most businesses, whether here in the US or anywhere else? I think we need to know this before we start to panic.



TG, who isn't panicking anyway

[xchrom]

18. what panic? -- halloween is right around the corner --

and i'm going to need to be Fabulous.

[Demeter]

50. How About Dressing Up as A Gold Coin or Bullion?

The fabulousness comes from the inscription on the coin....whatever fantasy you like.

Of course, the Middle Eastern dancing costumes incorporated coins, also Balkan, but I was thinking something more like "being" the coin...can't find any image of that on web, just lots of skanky dancing costumes.

[xchrom]

56. i would look too Wonderful in a skanky belly dancing out fit.

the gold coin is a very interesting idea.

[Demeter]

65. I once saw a Male Middle Eastern Dancer

He was fabulous. Like Nijinsky

[xchrom]

75. in france there's a revival of male belly dancing -- & i forget the name

of the guy who is perhaps the best of them.

but it made me too nervous to watch -- he isn't a minor -- but what i saw looked like a little boy -- i had to turn it off.

but it was beautiful -- a kind of hip hop, algerian blend thing.

[xchrom]

91. here's a couple

Rachid Alexander
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZksDUViBFFo&feature=related


Steven Eggers Tribal Fusion Bellydance - Male Tribal Fusion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mddHcywXSDo

[Fuddnik]

112. Went really skanky a couple of years ago.

I was Drew Carey and my wife was Mimi Dobeck. We won first prize.

The next year, my wife said "Since you shaved off your mustache, why don't you go as Mimi this year?" I finally agreed, and nobody recognized me. We came in second, but the winner was fixed. The hostess' daughter won.

On the way to the party, we decided to stop at the busybody down the street's house. It took her a while to figure out who these strange people were standing on her doorstep. She finally asked, "Are you going to a party"? My wife said, Nah, we always dress like this on Saturdays.

[xchrom]

119. I LOVE that!

'We always dress like this on Saturday night.'

The busy body chewed on that for a while.

[Po_d Mainiac]

107. How about 'Standing Liberty'? n/t

[AnneD]

160. A buffalo nickel....

One goes as a buffalo, the other as an Indian.....

AnneD...who will be wearing a Hawaiian shirt and a round placard that says Prozac around her neck. She will be tropical depression.

[Demeter]

161. I could do that!

Friend brought me a real Hawaiian shirt once...

[Tansy_Gold]

163. That's hysterical, Anne!

I love puns!!!!!!!



:rofl:

[AnneD]

169. Before all his problems.......

I wore my fall leaves scrub top and a stripped tail and stripped kitten ear head band.........I was Tiger Woods.:hide:

I think I am always ahead of the curve.

[Demeter]

174. Groaner!

Stop, already!

[AnneD]

178. I am in to...

Cerebral costumes.

[Po_d Mainiac]

179. wear a plastic bag and stand at attention in the middle of the floor

for 4 hours.

[DemReadingDU]

22. Many banks and corporations do business globally

If they can't get parts from Japan to Ohio, for example, that is a crisis affecting me.


edit
If an investor in Switzerland bought some U.S. hazardous financial mutual funds, that will affect the Swiss when those mutual finds implode.

[Tansy_Gold]

40. But moving parts from Japan to Ohio shouldn't be dependent

on stock prices. That's what I'm trying to wrap my head around.

I understand about the market and Swiss mutual funds, but that's all part of the gambling/speculating. I'm concerned with Real Things, not the gambling/ponzi aspect of the markets.

So Fujimori Co. makes widgets in Japan. Fujimori sells those widgets to Ace Mfg in Akron to be assembled into gizmos. If the Nikkei drops 5% and the DJIA drops 4.5%, how does that directly impact Fujimori's ability to continue making widgets and sell them to Ace to be assembled into gizmos?


TG

[DemReadingDU]

55. Some companies are not doing well since the Tsunami and nuclear meltdown

Some of the Japanese companies were destroyed or are rebuilding. Thus whatever supplies we needed from them in America were slowed down, or substituted from a different company. With that uncertainty, the stock price of those companies go down. Check out this article...

3/15/11 Japan earthquake: The companies most affected by the disaster
Here, we take a look at the shares most affected by the disaster.

Lancashire Holdings - Share price fall since quake 10.47pc
Sector Insurance
Reason In a statement on Tuesday morning Lancashire said it was too early to estimate the cost to it of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. However, the company has already said it expects to make a first-quarter loss of $55m as a result of its exposure to the New Zealand earthquake last month.

Burberry Group - Share price fall since quake 9.2pc
Sector Luxury goods
Reason The company was hit by concerns that demand for luxury products is likely to fall in the wake of the Japan earthquake.

Berkeley Resources - Share price fall since quake 37.63pc
Sector Energy
Reason The uranium miner's shares have seen the most dramatic fall of any company as the market has weighed up the likely impact of a global reassessment of the nuclear power industry in the wake of the potential nuclear disaster unfolding at three Japanese nuclear plants in the wake of the tsunami.

many more examples...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8383373/Japan-earthquake-The-companies-most-affected-by-the-disaster.html


edit
Oh, I think I misunderstood. Not the individual companies, but the overall stock indexes.
I think overall, when confidence is lost globally, the markets all go down.
:shrug:

[Tansy_Gold]

67. That's part of it, but looking at it from the other direction

IF indeed there is a downturn in the companies, either from natural disaster or whatever, that can be reflected in the markets. I'm looking at the question from the other end -- why would a downturn in the markets/casinos affect the ability of businesses to do business?

As the conversation on this topic has explored, I think there's less and less actual business being done OTHER THAN the trading back and forth of stock. As companies are bought out and gutted, they are no longer viable. Their products are no longer produced, their workers no longer work. It's not about ownership at all; it's about speculation as an economic model and I just don't think that's sustainable.


TG

[DemReadingDU]

78. Today, many people think the stock market is the economy

The people living in the real economy, they already know it is not good. Maybe they have lost their jobs, have no money, and can't buy stuff.

But when people are still living in the bubble, they still see the economy as 'recovering'. Then when the market falls 600 points, they perk up and think that the economy really isn't recovering at all. So they tighten their wallets, conserve instead of spend. So if these people stop buying widgets from company XYZ or stop eating at ABC, then eventually ABC & XYZ go out of business throwing even more people into the real economy.

[Po_d Mainiac]

27. cuzz it sounds better than saying its a self inflicted

bloodletting by the Amer/Euro bankster cartel.

[AnneD]

39. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. I don't panic folks, banks and markets are doing a good job, but I was just at my brother's farm. He has gotten a new calf. The auction barn has been inundated with farmers trying to cut their losses. Beautiful cows and calves going for a dollar a pound for the cow, the calf thrown in. Too good to be true you think until you look closer. The cows are so scrawny. The drought and heat are having a devastating effect. In the near term, that means the market is flooded with cheap beef but in the near future prices will go through the roof. Stock up you freezers folks.

To that end my brother and I are going in to buy a few calves for beef for us. We are on the lookout for a few milk calves for the future. We couldn't afford the quality otherwise if it was not for the drought. And about the drought......brother started the pond outside his house about 8 years ago. It was a complete ecosystem. At the same time he but in some drought resistant in a section of his field, in addition to clover, oats, etc. Some of his friends said he was nuts, but again he is having the last laugh. His terraced pond is down to the original tank (1/4 th). He is running water in to save his fish but he is frugal with even that.

Wild life are coming closer in they are so desperate. We were shock when we witnessed a hawk repeatedly go after the chickens. He had to go out and shoot it. It had gone after three chickens and would have kept after them until he killed one. Brother came back with the carcass just cussing. Not about the bird but that he had to shoot the hawk. His reasoning....if the hawk had killed the first chicken, he was ok with that. You lose a certain amount of stock to predators (perrigrin falcons go after his chicks all the time) they have to eat too. But this hawk was going after so many until he got one. The sad thing was this hawk was big but light in weight. It's range is in the mountains not the flat plains of Texas. That means that things are really bad in the mountains. Things aren't looking well for this planet.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[MadinMo]

98. Love your posts, AnneD

:hi:

[AnneD]

152. Shucks....

:blush: Twern't nuttin.

[Demeter]

47. It's A Global Banking Crisis, Is What They Mean

I don't expect BoA to be around by Xmas. Europe is so worried about its banks that everyone's shipping their cash over here, which is why BNY is charging for deposits over $50M.

This may be a winnowing time for the TBTF. Finally. It's long overdue. ASnd we aren't the only nation with TBTF banks.

[rdking647]

168. the wealth effect

if people see their stock protfolio drop they feel poorer and are less likely to spend. and in a consumer driven economy like ours that is bad

[Spider Jerusalem]

17. Just an FYI, NYMEX crude price is probably a bad indicator

WTI spot is at historical lows because of inventories at Cushing and lack of pipeline capacity to move it elsewhere. It's a broken benchmark, and not especially meaningful in terms of the overall price of gasoline. For comparison, here's Lousiana Light Sweet:

http://tinyurl.com/3su4b54

And Brent:

http://tinyurl.com/44cl9gj

Those two crudes are tracking each other and both trading in the $102-105/bbl range. Either would be a more accurate representation than WTI.

[Po_d Mainiac]

31. I expect we'll hear sometime in the future

That one or more hedge funds are moving a few tankers to the terminals in an effort to raise capital. The outflows of cash can only be covered by selling marketable assets.

Margin calls can be a thing of beauty!

[Demeter]

68. Contango Was a Koch Bros' Invention

I hope they lose their shorts and some skin from it.

[xchrom]

20. Market musings with David Rosenberg: we’re in a depression

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/08/08/market-musings-with-david-rosenberg-were-in-a-depression/

I spoke with David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, today to get his take on what’s happening in the markets after Friday’s US credit rating downgrade by the S&P. Here are the highlights of our conversation.

What’s the biggest surprise of the S&P downgrade of the US’s credit rating?
The timing of it. They already had stated their intention, but the timing of it was early.

Why did it come early?
The budget agreement to get the debt ceiling raised is light.

What are the consequences of this?
In a real economic sense, the impact is fairly small. We have to remember it’s a split rating. Moody’s and Fitch have not downgraded the U.S.

What are the global consequences of the US downgrade?
If the U.S. isn’t AAA, it begs the question who is? The real consequences run a lot deeper than the U.S.

What will be more consequential is if France loses their AAA rating. If the U.S. isn’t AAA then I can’t see France having a AAA rating. And if France isn’t AAA you can kiss the European Stability Fund good-bye. Because the ball will then be in Germany’s court and I’m not so sure that the country will be able to bail out the entire euro zone.

[Ghost Dog]

34. France's wingnuts are not as whacko as yours,

nor as influential.

[xchrom]

48. ...

:spray:

[wordpix]

43. I don't see the rich Wall St. barons jumping out of windows so this isn't 1929

[Demeter]

74. Not yet

Wait until Xmas...besides, the bastards have their money locked up in assets. They have no reason to jump. They have no intention of suffering, they don't care what happens to their investors, and they don't expect to be prosecuted, but if it comes up, they go ex-pat...

[Fuddnik]

115. There's always hope.

[xchrom]

21. europe: Europe shares briefly turn positive on bargain hunting

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/us-markets-europe-stocks-idUSTRE77813B20110809

(Reuters) - European equities briefly turned positive on Tuesday after steep declines earlier in the session, on technical buying and as investors started to scoop up beaten-down stocks, traders said.

At 7:40 a.m. EDT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 of top European shares was down 0.3 percent at 933.40 points after briefly turning slightly positive.

"It looks like the market is massively overdone on the downside. A lot of forced selling was going on in the morning, which exaggerated the downside move," said Manoj Ladwa, senior trader at ETX Capital.

"We have got subsequent bounce on the back of potentially more money being pumped into the market. A few value investors are there seeing the asset prices have gone down to extreme levels. Markets are oversold."

[xchrom]

25. FOREX-Swiss franc at record highs as safety sought on mkt stress

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/markets-forex-idUSL6E7J90TP20110809

LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc surged to new
all-time highs against the euro and the dollar in volatile trade
on Tuesday, while the Japanese yen held firm as concerns about a
global slowdown and a rout in stock markets drove investors to
seek safe-haven currencies.

Investors unwound leveraged trades funded in the dollar and
the yen as global stocks, as measured by the MSCI's all-country
world index fell 1 percent. It has now shed 20
percent since peaking in May, suggesting it is in a bear market
and boding ill for growth-linked currencies like the Australian,
New Zealand and Canadian dollars .

Markets have become deeply risk-averse in recent days after
Friday's downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt by Standard and Poor's
and persistent worries over the euro zone spooked investors and
fuelled concerns about a global slowdown like the one witnessed
after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

The euro tumbled through a low of 1.0605 francs
hit in Asian trade, dropping to its lowest on record at 1.0475
francs, according to EBS data. It was last at 1.0564 in volatile
trade, down 1.3 percent for the day.

[xchrom]

26. European stocks lose 5 pct in broad sell-off

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/markets-europe-stocks-down-idUSLDE7780CZ20110809

Aug 9 (Reuters) - European stocks tumbled 5 percent in morning trade on Tuesday as mounting fears over the health of the global economy prompted investors to dump risky assets across the board and run for cover.

At 0840 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares was down 4.2 percent at 897.92 points, after losing as much as 5 percent. The index has tumbled about 20 percent since July 22.

The Euro STOXX 50 volatility index .V2TX, known as the VSTOXX, jumped 28 percent to hit its highest level since late 2008 during the heat of the financial crisis.

[xchrom]

29. Instant obsolescence of the Turkish model

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH10Ak01.html

With the Turkish lira in free-fall, Recep Tayyip Erdogan looks less like a prospective Ottoman caliph than a garden-variety Third World strongman whose patronage machine ruined the national currency. The Turkish prime minister's "neo-Ottoman dream" (Amir Taheri) for a "new Ottoman region" (Harold Rhode) reached its best-used-by date last December, when Turkey's stock market quadrupled in value from its 2009 crisis low. The deflationary wind that rocked American markets last week may flatten Turkey's.

Since then, the Turkish market has lost two-fifths of its value in


dollar terms, and the Turkish lira has fallen farthest of the world's major currencies, close to its 2009 crisis low. Turkey's financial unraveling has only begun. On March 1, I warned that Turkey was "a developing market to avoid". With the carnage in global markets, Turkey's problems barely made the back pages. But the strategic importance of Turkey's currency route will become a major theme for foreign policy during the next several weeks.

By contrast, other emerging market currencies have soared: Brazil's currency trades 70% above its 2009 low, and Russia's by 25%. Unlike the emerging countries with whom it competes, Turkey's current account deficit is out of control. It exceeds 10% of gross domestic product (GDP), about the same as crisis-ridden Greece and Portugal. Turkey's central bank has let the currency slide in a belated effort to correct the imbalance, but the lira's depreciation has backfired.

Turkey's supposed return to world power has captivated the foreign policy punditeska for years. In April 2009, President Barack Obama made Turkey his first overseas trip and hailed his "model partnership" with the country's Islamist leader as a pillar of America's relationship with the Muslim world.





***chart porn @ link

[Demeter]

76. So much for the IMF success story

Hollow countries--that's what the IMF produces.

[xchrom]

66. European shares stabilise as US opens higher

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14456518

European shares have recovered heavy losses made in a volatile morning's trading, as US markets open up.

The leading Dow Jones index began 1.2% higher at 10,939.12 points

Some indexes, like London's FTSE 100, that had fallen up to 5.5%, were positive by the time Wall Street opened - although trading remained nervy.

Traders are on edge about the levels of debt facing the US and some eurozone countries, and the impact this could have on their already weak economies.

[xchrom]

92. Deutsche Bank CEO’s Hedging of Italian Risk Shows Germany Is the Priority

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-08/deutsche-bank-ceo-s-hedging-of-italian-risk-shows-germany-is-the-priority.html

When Josef Ackermann called on lenders to help bail out Greece last month, the Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) chief executive officer had already cut his potential losses from the crisis spreading to Italy and Spain.

Five days after lenders agreed to back the Institute for International Finance’s plan to accept losses on their holdings of Greek debt, the Frankfurt-based bank said it reduced its risks linked to Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain by 70 percent in the first half. In Italy, the lender cut its exposure to 996 million euros ($1.4 billion) from 8.01 billion euros.

The decision helped the bank to escape losses on Italian bonds, which have since slumped on speculation the country will struggle to finance its deficit. It prompted an investigation by Italy’s securities watchdog and has also opened the bank to criticism it helped undermine confidence in the country. That may damage the lender’s franchise in a country where households save more than other Europeans and pay higher bank fees.

“The signal was that Deutsche Bank thought Italian bonds would fall,” said Dirk Becker, an analyst with Kepler Capital Markets in Frankfurt who recommends that investors buy Deutsche Bank shares. “The image of a committed bank may have taken some damage from local businesses and politicians.”

[xchrom]

95. Eastern Europe Rate Pressure May Ease as Food-Cost Decline Curbs Inflation

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-08/eastern-europe-rate-pressure-may-ease-as-food-cost-decline-curbs-inflation.html

Eastern Europe’s policy makers may have an easier choice between economic growth and price stability after inflation reports this week will probably show that declining food costs are alleviating price pressures.

The Czech inflation rate dropped for a second month in July, a report today showed. Romania and Hungary will say inflation slowed last month, while data in Poland and Slovakia will show the pace of price increases stabilized after slowing the previous month, according to Bloomberg surveys. Russia’s July inflation rate fell to the lowest this year, declining more than economists estimated.

“We’ve seen inflation essentially turn in the region,” said Simon Quijano-Evans, an economist at ING Groep NV (INGA) in London. “In addition we’ll start to have central banks becoming much more dovish. Growth remains on the top of everybody’s list of priorities.”

Investors have pared rate-increase bets across the region as inflation is abating, driven in part by the U.S. and euro- region economies losing steam. In Poland and the Czech Republic, forward-rate agreements eliminated bets on quarter-point increases for the next six months and in Hungary they predict unchanged rates for the next 12 months.

[xchrom]

110. Stocks Gain Led by Autofagasta as investors Await Outcome of Fed Meeting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/u-k-s-ftse-100-index-retreats-20-from-feb-high-as-barclays-rbs-tumble.html

U.K. stocks rose, with the benchmark FTSE 100 recouping losses of more than 200 points, as investors awaited the outcome of today’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Antofagasta Plc rallied 5.4 percent as a gauge of mining companies snapped an 11-day selloff. InterContinental Hotels Group Plc (IHG) rose 5.9 percent, boosted by better-than-estimated earnings. Banks and utilities paced declining shares, led by a slump in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. (RBS)

The FTSE 100 Index (UKX) climbed 60.2, or 1.2 percent, to 5,129.15 at 3:59 p.m. in London after earlier plunging as much as 5.5 percent. The gauge was briefly down 20 percent from this year’s high on Feb. 8, the definition of a bear market. The FTSE All-Share Index rose 1.3 percent today, while Ireland’s ISEQ Index gained 2.7 percent.

“Investors are really taking their cue from macroeconomics and the outlook on global growth,” said Colin McLean, chief executive officer at SVM Asset Management Ltd. in Edinburgh. “We haven’t seen any redemption pressure at all, which is encouraging. The speed of the moves down has left private investors unwilling to sell where we are now.”

[xchrom]

117. Bank to downgrade growth forecast

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bank-to-downgrade-growth-forecast-2334688.html

The UK's economic forecasts will be slashed by the Bank of England tomorrow for the second time this year, adding to fears that the recovery is in jeopardy.

The Bank's quarterly inflation report is expected to predict that GDP in 2011 will rise by significantly less than the 1.8% it estimated in May, while next year's figures may also be downgraded.

But its calculations will not take into account the recent stock market meltdown, which has seen the FTSE 100 Index lose nearly 16% of its value, or £250 billion, in the past two weeks.

The mayhem in financial markets could further weaken the UK's economy by destroying consumer and business confidence, raising the risk of a global recession, its governor Sir Mervyn King is expected to caution.

[Po_d Mainiac]

23. Another quote for the books

"The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default" Former chairsatan (but still a blubbering idiot) Greenscum.

Hey world. In case you haven't noticed, Da FED cranks out its own credit cards. Saves on all that time consuming disclosure shit.

[xchrom]

30. Bad for business

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/MH10Dj01.html

It used to be that when the chairman of the United States Federal Reserve spoke, the market listened; but the chairman has lost his mystique. Now when the market speaks, politicians listen. Hopefully they heard what the market just said: government cutbacks are bad for business. The government needs to spend more, not less. Fortunately, there are viable ways to do this while still balancing the budget.

The markets were supposed to rebound after the United States debt ceiling agreement was reached last Monday. But even before downgrade of the US debt rating, the market apparently understood what politicians didn't: that the debt deal was a death deal for the economy. Reducing government spending by US$2.2 trillion over a decade, as congress agreed to do, will kill any


hopes of economic recovery. We're looking at a double-dip recession.

The figure is actually more than $2.2 trillion. As Jack Rasmus pointed out on Truthout on August 4:

Economists estimate the "multiplier" from government spending at about 1.5. That means for every $1 cut in government spending, about $1.50 is taken out of the economy. The first year of cuts are therefore $375 billion to $400 billion in terms of their economic effect. Ironically, that's about equal to the spending increase from President Barack Obama's 2009 initial stimulus package. In other words, we are about to extract from the economy - now showing multiple signs of weakening badly - the original spending stimulus of 2009! As others have pointed out, that magnitude of spending contraction will result in 1.5 million to 2 million more jobs lost. That's also about all the jobs created since the trough of the recession in June 2009. In other words, the job market will be thrown back two years as well.

We're not moving forward. We're moving backward. The hand-wringing is all about the "debt crisis" but the national debt is not what has stalled the economy, and the crisis was not created by Social Security or Medicare, which are being set up to take the fall. It was created by Wall Street, which has squeezed trillions in bailout money from the government and the taxpayers; and by the military, which has squeezed trillions more for an amorphous and unending "War on Terror." But the hits are slated to fall on the so-called "entitlements" - a social safety net that we the people are actually entitled to, because we paid for them with taxes.

[Demeter]

77. $1.50! Unsustainable.

[xchrom]

32. Bank withdrawals

http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2011/08/financial-markets

AS STOCKMARKETS tanked again on Monday and investors flocked to the relative safety of Treasury debt despite Friday’s downgrade of America’s credit rating by S&P, punch-drunk moneymen were left asking if it was 2008 all over again. One ominous echo of those dark days was the stomach-churning performance of financial firms, which reportedly prompted the agencies that make up the Financial Stability Oversight Council, America’s systemic-risk regulator, to hold an emergency call.

America’s banks are generally reckoned to be in better shape than their European peers, having gone through their own near-apocalypse in the months after Lehman Brothers’ demise. That bleeding was stemmed by some vigorous capital-raising combined with the stress tests of May 2009 which, though far from perfect, were a lot more robust than the flaky checks done on European lenders this year.

This confidence gap is narrowing, and not because of any improvement in Europe. For reasons that were not altogether clear—though worries about the unseen consequences of the downgrade on banks’ books clearly played a part—the KBW index of bank shares tumbled by 11% on a day when the S&P 500 fell by an ugly-enough 6.7%. Worst hit was Bank of America, which lost a staggering 23% of its value, bringing its decline since the beginning of the year to a little over 50%. The cost of insuring the bank against default increased by half.

[Ghost Dog]

36. World markets hope for Fed action

Originally published: August 9, 2011 4:45 AM
Updated: August 9, 2011 8:36 AM
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may announce another round of monetary easing helped stocks recover their poise Tuesday after many global markets entered official bear market territory.

The Fed gave no indication of what action it would take at meeting Tuesday, but hopes that it will be forced into more action helped stocks in Europe and Wall Street futures recover. Investors still...

/... http://www.newsday.com/business/world-markets-hope-for-fed-action-1.3082426

See also: Fed May Strengthen Stimulus Pledge on Recession Concern - http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4953737

[Festivito]

37. Debt: 08/05/2011 14,584,500,839,325.86 (UP 19,530,671,616.48) (Fri, UP a lot.)

(UNDER the new 2011 debt limit of 14.694-trillion dollars by 290.501-billion dollars. LBN shows LBN posts today, at least for SMW. Good day.)
Slept in. Stormy, but sleepless night.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,914,994,383,088.84 + 4,669,506,456,237.02
UP 20,147,316,949.47 + DOWN 616,645,332.99

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 313-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,198.94 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.60, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,603,392 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $46,654.97.
A family of three owes $139,964.9. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 36 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 10,058,883,304.89.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,047,106,643.91.
The average for the last 36 days would be 6,705,922,203.26.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 210 reports in 309 days of FY2011 averaging 4.87B$ per report, 3.31B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 534 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.3 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/05/2011 14,584,500,839,325.86 BHO (UP 3,957,623,790,412.78 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +1,022,877,808,434.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,208,253,721,936.72 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/18/2011 +000,238,790,593.83 ------------******** Mon
07/19/2011 +000,061,099,321.97 ------------*******
07/20/2011 -000,246,591,087.61 ---
07/21/2011 -006,272,699,061.03 --
07/22/2011 +000,804,035,241.16 ------------********
07/25/2011 -000,991,970,057.94 --- Mon
07/26/2011 +000,075,256,672.36 ------------*******
07/27/2011 +000,470,569,863.89 ------------********
07/28/2011 +005,447,179,210.73 ------------*********
07/29/2011 +002,605,572,370.14 ------------*********
08/01/2011 +027,273,368,503.87 ------------********** Mon
08/02/2011 +124,683,694,907.85 ------------***********
08/03/2011 -000,098,125,325.28 ----
08/04/2011 -012,807,553,395.89 -
08/05/2011 +020,147,316,949.47 ------------**********

161,389,944,707.52 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4952118&mesg_id=4952534

[Festivito]

155. Debt: 08/08/2011 14,587,727,605,443.44 (UP 3,226,766,117.58) (Mon, UP a little.)

(UNDER the new 2011 debt limit of 14.694-trillion dollars by 293.728-billion dollars. Good day.)
Oh oh, I'm late. Hope Skinner fixes the LBN problem.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,915,515,946,703.07 + 4,672,211,658,740.37
UP 521,563,614.23 + UP 2,705,202,503.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 313-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,198.72 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.60, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,624,992 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $46,662.06.
A family of three owes $139,986.19. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 11,123,495,223.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,157,229,830.20.
The average for the last 31 days would be 7,894,093,384.06.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 211 reports in 312 days of FY2011 averaging 4.86B$ per report, 3.29B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 531 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.3 and 18.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/08/2011 14,587,727,605,443.44 BHO (UP 3,960,850,556,530.36 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +1,026,104,574,551.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,200,410,800,356.96 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/19/2011 +000,061,099,321.97 ------------*******
07/20/2011 -000,246,591,087.61 ---
07/21/2011 -006,272,699,061.03 --
07/22/2011 +000,804,035,241.16 ------------********
07/25/2011 -000,991,970,057.94 --- Mon
07/26/2011 +000,075,256,672.36 ------------*******
07/27/2011 +000,470,569,863.89 ------------********
07/28/2011 +005,447,179,210.73 ------------*********
07/29/2011 +002,605,572,370.14 ------------*********
08/01/2011 +027,273,368,503.87 ------------********** Mon
08/02/2011 +124,683,694,907.85 ------------***********
08/03/2011 -000,098,125,325.28 ----
08/04/2011 -012,807,553,395.89 -
08/05/2011 +020,147,316,949.47 ------------**********
08/08/2011 +000,521,563,614.23 ------------******** Mon

161,672,717,727.92 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4953738&mesg_id=4953855

[xchrom]

57. Olek Yarn-Bombs Wall Street: 'Don't Steal From the Public'

Prolific New York City crocheter Olek has again hit Wall Street (remember the bull she covered in yarn last year), this time making a statement on a shopping cart:

Keep your eyes peeled for other such statements (and get in touch with what you see!). She tells us, mysteriously, "A little surprise for u! Is waiting... and there is more of them here and there. You know what they say...Keep asking and you will get it. It is not a crocheted VV stand but.... still something."



http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/2011/08/olek_yarn-bombs_wall_street.php

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

58. Straight up...then straight down.

PPT dud?

[Tansy_Gold]

70. And up again. This is a sign to me that it's ALL

nothing but speculation.


Wankers.




TG

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

73. I haven't seen that much volatility in an half hour before.

[Demeter]

79. They want to make up 2,700 pts in one day

Wankers. Somebody said that....

[Hugin]

85. Why not?

It's someone else's money, afterall.

:sarcasm:

[Demeter]

87. Hey, Hugin! Where you been?

I get worried when I insult you and you don't retort.

[Hugin]

90. It's all good, Demeter.

:)

( Insult me? I guess I missed that... :D )

[Demeter]

80. How About some NEWS?

I'll post what I can...

[Demeter]

81. AIG to sue BofA for $10.5bn

Bank of America shares dropped as much as 23 per cent as it faced the prospect of a $10.5bn suit from after American International Group over claims the bank sold it more than $28bn of residential mortgage-backed securities in transactions ‘marred by fraud’

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/XYEWFF/62Z4U6/06MUC/XTUIPJ/AM57U3/ID/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=9

[Demeter]

82. US financial stocks suffer big sell-off

Regulators convened an emergency conference call of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, but said there was no evidence of broader systemic instability


Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/XYEWFF/62Z4U6/06MUC/XTUIPJ/TU1P4Z/ID/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=9


All the King's Horses, and All the King's Men...

[Demeter]

83. European banks face shortsellers’ fire

Hedge funds are focusing not on the euro but on its financial groups

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/XYEWFF/62Z4U6/06MUC/XTUIPJ/B54M1S/ID/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=9

[Demeter]

84. Prospects wane for more tech IPOs

LinkedIn shares dive, highlighting how fears of an economic downturn have eroded the excitement surrounding internet companies, analysts say

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/XYEWFF/62Z4U6/06MUC/XTUIPJ/MSJ9V2/ID/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=9

[Demeter]

86. Verizon telephone workers strike

Verizon Communications’ workers have gone on strike for the first time in 11 years after failing to reach an agreement on a new contract

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/XYEWFF/62Z4U6/06MUC/XTUIPJ/SPU35M/ID/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=9

[Hugin]

89. Looks like this DCB is mainly driven by the usual FIRE+E players...

Or maybe they should now more correctly be called the Finance, Insurance, and Energy (FIE) speculators.

Oh, and GOLD! GOLD! GOLD! (in them thair hills!) is up, too. (Gee, I wonder who's driving this bus? :eyes: )

Throw those dice, baby. :bounce:

[Demeter]

88. Bill Miller: A precipitous, wrong, and dangerous decision

The downgrade by Standard & Poor’s of US sovereign debt, from triple A to double A plus, was precipitous, wrong, and dangerous.

At best, S&P showed a stunning ignorance and disregard for the potential consequences on a fragile global financial system. The rating agency chose to take this action after the worst week in US equity markets since 2008, a week which not only saw stocks fall sharply, but which also witnessed a dangerous escalation in the European debt crisis.

The action was wholly unnecessary and the timing could not have been worse. Compounding this, the reasoning was poor, and consequences both short and long term for the global financial system unpredictable.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/NA70KK/ORNPWM/A5Q0X/TPFKWO/TU1PBB/D5/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=8

I DON'T KNOW...SOMETIMES THE SUPER-SATURATED SOLUTION IS CRYING FOR PRECIPITATION...

[Tansy_Gold]

93. Oh! Oh! Oh! I remember that from my

single semester of high school chemistry!


Excellent analogy.




TG

[Demeter]

94. Fear of recession may help avoid it NOW THAT'S JUST CRAZY TALK

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fear-itself-2011-08-09?siteid=YAHOOB

Commentary: Lower prices would benefit business and consumers...The very fear that the United States economy is heading into a double-dip recession may well serve to keep us out of it.

As prospects for economic growth have dimmed, prices of a number of commodities have fallen. While ostensibly a sign of economic bearishness, these declines can also be interpreted as a good omen, for they lower the costs of production for business, as well as the cost of living for consumers....


...Surveys show that an overwhelming majority of the electorate plan to throw incumbents of both parties out of office, come the next elections. And that especially includes those with tea-party backing.

If you ask me, S&P’s downgrade of U.S. debt should serve as a wake-up call to the pols in Washington that the time has come to cooperate. As Rodney King once said: “Can’t we all just get along?”

[Demeter]

96. Insiders are buying: Insiders now consider their stocks to be attractive

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/insiders-are-buying-2011-08-09?siteid=YAHOOB

All right, all of you who say you’re contrarians: Now’s the time to see if you really walk the walk, not just talk the talk...You say that the time to buy is when the blood is running in the streets. Well now would certainly appear to be one of those times. How many of you are stepping up to the plate to buy?

Not many, I am sure.

But there is one group that appears to be doing so. And they have a history of being more right than wrong about the market’s direction. I’m referring to corporate insiders, a group that includes corporate officers, directors, and largest shareholders. You may recall that, three weeks ago, corporate insiders were selling at an abnormally high pace. By one measure, in fact, they were then selling at the fastest pace in the nearly 40 years that insider data had been collected. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA now more than 1,400 points lower, the insiders appear to be shifting back to the buy side in a big way...

USING UP THEIR HOARD TO BUY OUT THE PUBLIC, THEN CAN PAY DIVIDENDS TO SELVES...

[AnneD]

162. Wouldn't it just be easier...

to take that stolen money and just put it in your pocket.

Never bring a knife to a gunfight.

[Demeter]

97. While the Markets Swoon ... By JOE NOCERA

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/09/opinion/nocera-while-the-markets-swoon.html

It’s hard not to feel a certain contempt for Standard & Poor’s in the wake of its downgrade of American debt. Its sole job as a credit-rating agency is to gauge the creditworthiness of bonds, yet like its competitors, Moody’s and Fitch, it has consistently fallen short. It downgraded Enron days before the company went bankrupt. Its willingness to slap a AAA rating on securitized subprime junk was the foundation upon which the entire financial crisis was built. And now, to show that it’s got some spine, S.& P. decided to downgrade the United States? From a purely economic standpoint, the likelihood of a U.S. default is nil. As my friend Daniel Alpert, a founding managing partner of Westwood Capital, put it: “The size of the U.S. economy, the wealth of its inhabitants and the assets of the sovereign entity itself are unquestionably more than adequate to repay, with interest, all of the $14 trillion or so of the nation’s debt.” He added, “Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of finance and economics can figure that out.” On Monday, with the market collapsing, where did investors rush to put their money? In the one security they still considered safe: U.S. Treasuries.

•

On the other hand, I also found myself nodding in agreement as I read S.& P.’s analysis. The downgrade, after all, was less about economics than politics. S.& P. was frightened by the same thing that has scared most Americans: the spectacle of an unyielding minority of Tea Party Republicans ready to push the country into default rather than accept even modest tax increases to help bring down the deficit. “The effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policy-making and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges,” wrote S.& P. in its downgrade report. Who can disagree?

•

Has any president in American history left behind as much lasting damage as George W. Bush? In addition to two unfinished wars, he also set us on the path to our current financial mess. The Bush tax cuts, which turned a surplus into a growing deficit, have been disastrous. As James Fallows pointed out in a prescient 2005 article in The Atlantic predicting a meltdown, they reduced tax revenue “to its lowest level as a share of the economy in the modern era.” (In its downgrade report, S.& P. suggested that it did not believe that Congress would let the cuts expire at the end of 2012, as they’re supposed to.) Then, in 2003, Bush pushed through prescription drug coverage for Medicare recipients. David M. Walker, then the comptroller general, described 2003 as “the most reckless fiscal year in the history of the Republic,” adding some $13 trillion in future entitlement costs.

•

When did President Obama become such a lousy speech-maker? His remarks on Monday afternoon, aimed at calming the markets, were flat and uninspired — as they have consistently been throughout the debt ceiling crisis. “No matter what some agency may say,” he said, ”we’ve always been and always will be a triple-A country.” Is that really the best he could do? The markets, realizing he had little or nothing to offer, continued their swoon. What is particularly frustrating is that the president seems to have so little to say on the subject of job creation, which should be his most pressing concern. On Monday, Obama mentioned a payroll tax holiday and the extension of unemployment benefits. Both moves would help people in need; neither will do much to create new jobs. I know that there are limits to what any government can do to create jobs. But what one yearns for is a little imagination from this White House. Someone suggested to me recently that the government could create a $50 billion fund for small business, and use it to pay, say, 20 percent of the wages of new hires for two years — first come, first served. Why doesn’t Obama suggest something like that?

[Demeter]

99. Did Standard and Poor’s Break SEC Regulations in Disclosing Its Downgrade to Select Parties?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/did-standard-and-poors-break-sec-regulations-in-disclosing-its-downgrade-to-select-parties.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

The Administration and its allies have gone after Standard and Poor’s for its downgrade of the US bond rating to AA+. They have attacked S&P’s general competence, its failure to reexamine its decision in the light of a $2 trillion math error (a Wall Street Journal story does not reflect well on S&P’s haste) and the subjective and political basis for its judgment. Even if these attacks have merit, however, they come off as being less than convincing by virtue of sounding like sour grapes.

There is a much more straightforward basis for questioning S&P’s conduct, and it has nothing to do with how S&P arrived at its rating. There is compelling evidence that the ratings agency made selective disclosure of its downgrade decision before it made it public last Friday evening. A reader told us certain hedge funds were informed Tuesday and traded successfully on the information. A separate source had told me certain banks were briefed on Thursday and were told of the US downgrade but assured their ratings would be unaffected. On Friday morning, Twitter was alight with the news.

Disclosing news of a ratings decision is required under SEC rules to be made publicly. All the discussion with favored parties is clear regulatory violation. Here is the germane section:

§ 240.17g-4 Prevention of misuse of material nonpublic information.

(a) The written policies and procedures a nationally recognized statistical rating organization establishes, maintains, and enforces to prevent the misuse of material, nonpublic information pursuant to section 15E(g)(1) of the Act (15 U.S.C. 78o–7(g)(1)) must include policies and procedures reasonably designed to prevent:

(1) The inappropriate dissemination within and outside the nationally recognized statistical rating organization of material nonpublic information obtained in connection with the performance of credit rating services;

(2) A person within the nationally recognized statistical rating organization from purchasing, selling, or otherwise benefiting from any transaction in securities or money market instruments when the person is aware of material nonpublic information obtained in connection with the performance of credit rating services that affects the securities or money market instruments; and

(3) The inappropriate dissemination within and outside the nationally recognized statistical rating organization of a pending credit rating action before issuing the credit rating on the Internet or through another readily accessible means.

(b) For the purposes of this section, the term person within a nationally recognized statistical rating organization means a nationally recognized statistical rating organization, its credit rating affiliates identified on Form NRSRO, and any partner, officer, director, branch manager, and employee of the nationally recognized statistical rating organization or its credit rating affiliates (or any person occupying a similar status or performing similar functions).

The language in Dodd Frank is more strict and specifies that a nationally recognized statistical ratings organization can have its registration revoked for misconduct (see page 1353).

The SEC is actually good at pursuing insider trading cases and even though this is not technically insider trading (as in the leakers presumably didn’t gain personally; this instead appears to be corporate favor seeking/trading) the type of investigation required would be virtually identical. It would be fun to see who S&P saw fit to enrich and how much ill-gotten gains they reaped.

[Demeter]

100. Killing Truth and Hope -- The Fatal Illusion of Opposition BY ARTHUR SILBER May 2008.

http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/2008/05/choosing-sides-ii-killing-truth-and.html

You desperately need to understand this: the next President of the United States, no matter who it is, will enter office knowing that he or she can systematically and regularly authorize torture, order mass murder, direct the United States military to engage in one campaign of criminal conquest and genocide after another, oversee uncountable acts of inhumanity and barbarity -- and he or she will never be challenged or called to account in any manner whatsoever. It may have taken the Bush administration two terms to bring us to the point where such evils are committed and even boasted about in broad daylight, while almost no one even notices -- but this will be where the next President starts.

And for this monstrous, unforgivable fact, you can thank the Democrats and those who whore themselves for the Democrats' success in our disgustingly meaningless elections....

The Wall Street plan for the Obama-bubble presidency is that of the cleanup crew for the housing bubble: sweep all the corruption and losses, would-be indictments, perp walks and prosecutions under the rug and get on with an unprecedented taxpayer bailout of Wall Street. ... Who better to sell this agenda to the millions of duped mortgage holders and foreclosed homeowners in minority communities across America than our first, beloved, black president of hope and change?

Why do Wall Street and the corporate law firms think they will find a President Obama to be accommodating? As the Black Agenda Report notes, "Evidently, the giant insurance companies, the airlines, oil companies, Wall Street, military contractors and others had closely examined and vetted Barack Obama and found him pleasing."

LOTS MORE AT LINK...I'M GOING TO BOOKMARK THIS BLOGSITE

[Tansy_Gold]

101. Hotler may be correct after all. n/t

[Demeter]

108. I figure It's Like Childbirth

Once you're in labor, you can't go back. The only way out is forward, seeing it through until a baby is born or the woman or the baby dies.

Anyone who survives this crash will possibly have something to hope for, when it's over--if it's permitted to complete...I don't think they have the resources to stop it or kick it down the road anymore. The only trick they haven't tried yet would be a world war, throwing chaos into the mix. But I don't think that would be any more than a distraction. It certainly wouldn't be a solution. It might not even be profitable, this time around.

AND IT DIDN'T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY!

[Demeter]

102. Maine Quashes Wall Street Negotiated Deals Citing No Free Lunch

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-08-09/maine-quashes-wall-street-negotiated-deals-citing-no-free-lunch.html

“I don’t eat at Wendy’s,” Robert Lenna, the Maine Municipal Bond Bank’s executive director, said when asked why he and three other officials had dinners costing almost $4,000 with Wall Street bankers selling the state’s debt...Lenna’s declaration, made at an April 8 public meeting, has laid bare a fight over whether Maine, where 12.6 percent of residents live below the poverty line, should try to save taxpayers’ money by holding open bond auctions in place of the privately negotiated debt sales it has relied on for decades...Just as Tea Party-backed officials upset Washington politics, their movement for fiscal restraint has sparked battles in statehouses across the country. In Maine, where Republicans took control of the governor’s office and Legislature in 2010 for the first time in more than 40 years, the new treasurer is also reviving a decades-old debate in the $2.9 trillion municipal market over the way bonds are sold. Until the 1970s, almost all states and municipalities sold bonds competitively, inviting sealed bids from bankers. Today, more than 80 percent of U.S. municipal-debt is issued through negotiated deals with one or more banks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. These private arrangements have led to deals such as Jefferson County, Alabama’s failed sewer-debt refinancing that cost taxpayers and investors billions of dollars and may prompt the county to declare bankruptcy this week...In competitive sales, or auctions, banks offer issuers the lowest interest rate they can to win the business. In negotiated deals, a chosen banker agrees on fees and rates before the sale. The underwriter buys the debt and markets it to investors. Banks promote negotiated sales as letting them offer the lowest cost by tailoring the debt to specific types of investors. Yet academic studies of the municipal market show such sales often raise costs by as much as $4.80 on every $1,000 borrowed, according to Mark D. Robbins and Bill Simonsen of the University of Connecticut in West Hartford...

“The only way the public can be assured of the lowest bid for a well-structured deal is a competitive bid,” said Robert Fuller, a former Standard & Poor’s managing director in public finance who runs Capital Markets Management LLC, a municipal adviser in Hopewell, New Jersey. “What can look like a good deal to you can be a much better deal for the other side,” he said. The dispute over Maine’s habit of raising money in private broke into the open after Lenna, 66, led three state officials to New York in October to close an $80.2 million Bond Bank deal to finance local projects, including schools. The group on Oct. 26 had dinner with bankers from Wells Fargo & Co., which was hired to underwrite the securities, at Il Tinello, at a cost of $1,185, according to state records. The midtown Manhattan restaurant’s homemade pasta dishes include a $22 plate named for former television talk-show host Regis Philbin, a regular patron, and another for billionaire investor Carl Icahn...Meetings followed at Cello Wine Bar, where the tab came to $66, and for a closing dinner at Smith & Wollensky, at $2,589, with a group that included lawyers and bankers from other firms involved, Lenna said. The steakhouse in midtown Manhattan charges as much as $49 for a filet mignon dish. A later gathering at Redemption Bar & Grill cost $113, the records show. The four meals cost almost $4,000, an expense that was covered by the underwriters. The bond bank spent $5,872 for the three-day trip, including $4,630 for hotels.

“I think it’s excessive,” said Cherie Sargent, finance director in Poland, one of 29 communities that got money through the bond bank deal, borrowing $4.5 million for water and sewer projects. The town’s share accounted for $27,700 of the underwriter’s fee of $6.16 for each $1,000 in debt sold. “Especially in the economy we’re in right now, everybody should be looking at ways to save money and that doesn’t seem to be the case with that trip,” said Sargent, whose town of about 5,000 residents north of Portland is known as a source of Poland Springs bottled water...Whether they sold bonds competitively or through negotiated deals, municipal officials used to travel to Wall Street to complete transactions until overnight mail services, facsimile machines and eventually the Internet made such trips unnecessary. Closing dinners remain part of some negotiated deals because public officials often go to New York when underwriters price their bonds. Dealers are prohibited from “paying for excessive or lavish travel, meal, lodging and entertainment expenses in connection with an offering,” such as trips to meet rating companies and bond closing dinners, according to a 2007 ruling from the industry-funded Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, a regulatory organization based in Washington.

Poliquin, 57, began pressing for competitive sales as a way to cut costs after being elected treasurer by the Republican- controlled Legislature. A real estate developer who returned to Maine in 1996 after leaving Avatar Associates, the New York-based money manager co-founded by Martin Zweig, Poliquin oversees the state’s general-purpose bond sales and sits on the boards of four independent state authorities that have been run by Lenna since 1988. In April, the bond bank held a special meeting on how it sells debt. Poliquin wanted the board to hire a financial adviser to help determine when to offer securities through competitive bid. At the meeting he detailed the costs from the negotiated sale in October, asking Lenna why he didn’t close the deal on a conference call from his office in Augusta, Maine’s capital, and get food at a nearby Wendy’s Co. restaurant. “It is very easy to suggest that somehow or other, because somebody goes out to dinner, or does a closing in New York, that there are savings to be made,” Lenna said July 11 by telephone. “It has no impact on the cost of our bonds. It doesn’t affect the interest rate. It doesn’t affect the cost of issuance. Closing dinners are paid for by the bankers, not the issuer.” Lenna said he typically goes to New York to close bond deals when the financing is for a number of local borrowers such as in October. It is easier, he said, to assemble all of the legal documents required from the communities for the securities at the offices of the bond bank’s law firm in New York, Hawkins Delafield & Wood LLP. The closing dinners also offer an opportunity for “team building,” he said....Maine for decades sold almost all of its bonds through negotiated deals, according to Poliquin. Former treasurer Samuel Shapiro, a Democrat who held office from 1981 to 1996, worked almost exclusively with Paine Webber Group Inc. and the firm’s New York-based banker Andrew Gurley. UBS AG of Zurich bought Paine Webber in 2000 and remained in control of much of Maine’s bond sales until it closed the underwriting unit in 2008....

[Demeter]

104. IRS Buckled To GOP Pressure On Secret Donations, Lawyer Says

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/08/irs-gop-pressure-secret-donations_n_921318.html?view=print&comm_ref=false

The Internal Revenue Service succumbed to pressure from Republican members of Congress last month when it suddenly shut down its examinations into whether five large donors had violated the law by not declaring their contributions to political 501(c)(4) groups as gifts, a lawyer representing progressive donors alleged Monday....The IRS initially defended the examinations after their existence was made public, saying they had been initiated by career civil servants, and were not political in nature. But noting the historic lack of enforcement of the provision, six Republican members of the Senate Budget Committee, led by Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.), accused the IRS of pursuing a Democratic political vendetta. And on July 7, the IRS shut everything down until further notice. The five donors have never been identified.

The agency, however, had been on solid legal ground in pursuing those cases, said Marcus S. Owens, a Washington lawyer who used to head the IRS division that oversees tax-exempt organizations. Owens said his four progressive clients are "outraged" by the IRS's cave-in and believe that dropping the investigation was the political decision -- not launching it. "The clear implication left by the IRS action on July 7 is that IRS enforcement activity can be curtailed by intervention from a handful of members of Congress, whatever their party affiliation, when political contributions are at risk," Owens wrote in a letter to the Treasury Department, which oversees the IRS. "Best as I can tell, the agency sort of made a snap decision under pressure from Republican members of Congress to just freeze everything in place," Owens told HuffPost. "The problem is they reacted to political pressure and they shut down audits without any apparent justification other than it was irritating members of one political party. And that has a corrosive effect on tax law."

MUCH MORE AT LINK

...For the really deep-pocketed big donors, especially those who give several million dollars to 501(c)(4)s at a time, the gift tax would be a huge blow. The gift tax rate is 35 percent this year -- and unless Congress acts, it will jump to 55 percent in 2013, even as the lifetime exemption falls to $1 million. Donors who gave to 501(c)(4)s instead of 527s (which require disclosure) could end up paying in a big way..."The IRS is being put in an untenable position because of political pressure from both sides," said Brad Smith, chairman of the Center for Competitive Politics, a group that opposes campaign finance regulations. The original gift tax inquiries "kind of popped out of nowhere after comments by Sen. Baucus and others on the other side of the political spectrum," he said.

Last fall, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) asked the IRS to investigate the use of tax-exempt groups for political advocacy, generally speaking, and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) requested an investigation of the tax status of the Karl Rove-associated group Crossroads GPS and others like it...Smith's proposed solution "is that Congress needs to back off trying to use the tax code to regulate campaign finance."

[Demeter]

105. ECB Wrote Detailed Letter To Italy "Dictating" Reforms

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110808-703589.html

[xchrom]

109. Goldman Sachs Traders Lost Money 15 Days in Second Quarter, Most Since ’08

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/goldman-sachs-traders-lost-money-15-days-in-second-quarter-1-.html

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), the U.S. bank that makes more than half its revenue from trading, lost money in that business on 15 days during the second quarter, the most daily losses since the fourth quarter of 2008.

The firm’s traders lost more than $100 million on one of the days, according to the New York-based company’s quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. They generated more than $100 million on four days out of 63 total days, the filing showed. The second quarter ended June 30.

Goldman Sachs, the fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets, last month reported second-quarter earnings that fell short of analysts’ estimates as fixed-income trading revenue plunged 63 percent from the first quarter. The company blamed the fixed- income trading drop, which was more than twice as large as any other bank’s, on a reduction in risk-taking.

The company reported zero days of trading losses during the first quarter of last year, the first perfect quarter in the firm’s history. It reported 10 such days in the second quarter, two in the third and 13 in the fourth.

[Demeter]

111. Why U.S. of AA Matters BY Niels C. Jensen

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/why-u-s-of-aa-matters.html


...Unless you’ve spent the last few days on another planet you will know by now that Standard and Poors chose to downgrade U.S. sovereign debt to AA+ last Friday evening. A U.S. downgrade is, in itself, almost meaningless. A nation that issues debt denominated solely in its own currency and which is in full control of its monetary policy, cannot default unwillingly. Nations default because they run out of foreign currency to service their debt, but the U.S. doesn’t need foreign currency to service its debt. One could thus argue that the rating agencies shouldn’t even bother to rate U.S. sovereign risk. But they do. And one of them has now decided that U.S. sovereign is no longer AAA.

So what does it mean? Near term, other U.S. financial institutions (Fannie Mae? Freddie Mac? JP Morgan?) will be downgraded as a result - perhaps as early as today or tomorrow. Following that, if Standard & Poors wants to maintain whatever credibility it has left, it will probably have to downgrade a few sovereigns as well. France springs to mind; it is not far behind the US as far as profligacy is concerned, and it may prove difficult for Standard and Poors to justify the AAA rating it currently assigns to France....If France is downgraded, a number of French banks will almost certainly be downgraded, following which other European banks will face the same destiny. Such a scenario has the potential to cause calamity across Europe. The 90 European banks which recently went through the (so-called) stress test organised by the European Banking Authority need to roll a total of €5.4 trillion (!) of debt over the next 24 months, a massive amount even during the best of times, probably undoable during times of stress. As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in consultation with Willem Buiter of Citigroup, pointed out in the Daily Telegraph over the weekend: “...the issue is not how long Italy and Spain can ride out the storm in bond markets. There would be a banking and insurance crisis long before sovereign defaults came into play, simply because the fall in bond prices on the secondary market is causing carnage to bank books (among other transmission mechanisms).”

With its downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt, Standard and Poors has started a chain of events which can only make things worse in an already crisis hit eurozone. For that reason, the decision to downgrade was not only badly timed but also ill considered; that it was probably justified is of little relevance at the moment.

...Here is what I think is needed:

• Establish a credible lender of last resort. The EFSB with €440 billion of fire power is a bad joke. Italy resides over the third largest bond market in the world with €1.8 trillion of sovereign debt outstanding, €700 billion of which must be rolled over the next 3 years. We estimate that at least €2 trillion would be required to make the EFSF credible.
  
  
• Get the debt restructuring over with. The current policy of ‘pretend and extend’ is extremely damaging, and the sooner our political leaders bite the bullet and accept a haircut is required on Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt, the better.
  
  
• Support the banking system, not the sovereigns. A haircut of 40-60% on Greek, Irish and Portuguese sovereign debt will undoubtedly put several banks in to trouble. If the banks go down, we all go down, so supporting them is critical. Where does the money come from? From the same sources which would have provided the funds to prop up the sovereigns (which is no longer required, following the haircut).
  
  
• Eliminate red tape. Labour market reforms are required across the eurozone. The Spanish prime minister will tell you he has already done a lot to make Spain a more productive country. The reality is that he is less than a mile into a marathon run in the Gobi desert. This will be painful but utterly necessary. Other reforms will also be required. The September letter will focus on one particular idea I have which could revive residential property markets around the world. Stay tuned.
  
  
• Think the unthinkable: fiscal union. I do not for one second believe a monetary union can survive longer term without full fiscal integration. Throughout history, there is not a single successful example. The question is whether Merkel can convince her countrymen (including herself) to join a fiscal union with countries which have proved terribly inept at managing their fiscal affairs? I suspect the answer is no.

The eurozone is well and truly in Dire Straits (for reasons which are largely self imposed). Only time will tell whether the political leadership in Frankfurt and Brussels can deliver Brothers in Arms or if it will all be Money for Nothing. Thus far they have been pretty good at delivering rhetoric, but rhetoric has no staying power, and their willingness to take tough decisions remains unproven. Today the ECB is buying Italian and Spanish government bonds. Let’s see what their appetite is like when they have spent €1 trillion and markets remain fragile. For this and the other reasons I have stated previously, my money remains on a complete restructuring of the euro.

[Demeter]

114. Why are the big banks getting off scot-free?

YVES HITS THE BIG TIME! YOU GO, GIRL!

http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/08/08/sec_fraud/index.html

[Demeter]

116. Obama Owns This Crisis

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/obama-owns-this-crisis.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

Obama created an unnecessary financial crisis. Not that we would have escaped eventually having one, but he played like a fool into the Republican desire to use the debt ceiling to push for budget cuts, and he tried outsmarting them to get his long standing desire of entitlements cuts through. Having the S&P downgrade hit when the Eurozone crisis was in an acute phase was like rolling a car full of explosives into a burning house. “Obama victory” may come to be the modern version of “Pyrrhic victory”.

And the man touted as a silver tongued orator can’t even talk up the markets. He actually managed to talk them down. Big time.

...I’ve started #ReasonsToPrimaryObama. The Wrongway Prez needs to be replaced, and we need alternatives beyond the ones being served up by the Republicans.

YVES--WE AREN'T GOING TO BE ALLOWED TO GET AN OUTSIDER AS PRESIDENT...

[Fuddnik]

126. I thought this was coming, just a little slower.

The whole debt ceiling-deficit reduction fiasco turned on the afterburners. S&P was just the ignition switch.

The economy flat out sucks. It's dismal. Hotler is right.

Timmeh Geithner, who's only claim to fame in life has been to misdiagnose a problem and prescribe the wrong solution. We have a dead demand side of the economy, and he keeps trying to resuscitate the supply side.

[Demeter]

129. The FIRE Can Only Cross Its Legs for So Long

and then it's time for that honey wagon.

[grasswire]

118. the markets must not be collapsing further today

I see no threads on DU about markets aside from this one. I haven't seen any figures yet today.

[Fuddnik]

127. Dow's up in the vicinity of 200.

Up to the minute quotes. Well, maybe a 5 minute delay.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

[Demeter]

128. We will see what happens at 3:30

[Fuddnik]

136. It's slipped to close to +100 now. 1:55 pm

[xchrom]

120. south asia: Sensex ends 132 points down, drops 8% in six days

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Sensex-ends-132-points-down-drops-8-in-six-days/articleshow/9541710.cms

MUMBAI: The BSE Sensex slid to its lowest close in 14 months on Tuesday taking losses over six sessions to nearly 8 percent, as investors dumped risky assets across global markets on gloomy outlook for the world economy.

The BSE Sensex on Tuesday closed 132 points down - recovering from an early loss of 560 points - as government assurances failed to fully beat back the contagion impact of debt crisis in the US and Europe.

In highly volatile trading, stock markets opened with huge losses but staged a smart recovery, wiping off all the losses by mid-day and moving into the positive territory.

However, they plunged back into the red. After opening 472 points down on Tuesday morning, the Sensex widened its loss to 558 points within minutes. Thereafter, it recovered more than 700 points from early morning lows and was trading with a gain of over 100 points at one point.

[xchrom]

122. Govt may cut petrol, diesel prices

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Govt-may-cut-petrol-diesel-prices/articleshow/9543800.cms

NEW DELHI: The government on Tuesday said that prices of petrol and other fuel could be lowered if global crude prices continue to slip further.

A fall in crude prices would also help the government bring down its subsidy bill on fuel which would help curb the fiscal deficit. The government has projected the fiscal deficit at 4.6 per cent of GDP for 2011-12.

"We are not fully satisfied with the downward movement from $107 per barrel to $102 per barrel, the prices are still reasonably high," said Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee.

"We hope prices of oil and other commodities will come down further, which will help us to manage inflation and also help in reducing subsidy on oil," he added.

[xchrom]

123. US rating downgrade: Jharkhand boy shakes the world

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/US-rating-downgrade-Jharkhand-boy-shakes-the-world/articleshow/9521575.cms

MUMBAI: About four months after MS Dhoni's boys won the Cricket World Cup for India, another man from Jharkhand has now shook up the world. On August 5, Standard & Poor's, led by Jharkhand-born Deven Sharma, struck off the 'AAA' rating of the US, considered the Gold standard in the world of finance, for the first time since 1914.

On that Friday afternoon, S&P officials told Barak Obama's treasury department that the ratings major's analysts have come to a decision that the US no longer deserves to be among the best rated countries in the world. After six hours and a flurry of emails, phone calls and conferences between top officials in the Obama administration and Sharma's team of number-crunchers, the world got to know of the unprecedented move - something that was in the air for a few months but which appeared more like a distant possibility: The US' country rating was downgraded one notch to 'AA-plus'. And suddenly the 57-year old Sharma was in the spotlight, hailed by a select few, but criticized by several in the financial world.

Born in 1955, Sharma was educated in Jamshedpur and Ranchi, and then moved to the US for his masters degree at Wisconsin and his doctoral degree in management from Ohio in 1987. During his initial years, he was in the manufacturing sector, working with Dresser Industries and Anderson Strathclyde. In 1988, he joined Booz, Allen & Hamilton, a global management consulting firm, where he spent 14 years. In 2002, he joined The McGraw-Hill Cos, the parent of S&P.

[xchrom]

124. US ratings downgrade: IT sector could face difficult times

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/US-ratings-downgrade-IT-sector-could-face-difficult-times/articleshow/9534547.cms

BANGALORE: With the US and European economies looking fragile, the Indian IT sector could be in for difficult times. The US accounts for almost 60% of the sector's revenues, and Europe another 20%.

Though the present problem with the US economy is around sovereign debt concerns, the worry is that going ahead this will affect US private sector growth, and therefore their IT spends.

Siddharth Pai, MD of global sourcing advisory services firm TPI India, said that if the US government cuts public spending to control its deficit, then private sector growth could be impacted. This is because public spending cuts could lead to lower investments and job creation, thus slowing down overall private sector growth.

IT stocks have been amongst the worst hit since the US ratings downgrade. The BSE IT index on Monday fell 4.33% to 5,222 points. That was on top of the 5% decline on Friday. In the last one week, the index has dropped over 11%.

[Demeter]

121. Jon Stewart hits the nail on the head

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-august-1-2011/dealageddon----a-compromise-without-revenues

[mrdmk]

132. That was painful to watch!

Just a warning... :mad:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

125. Setting the 11K Maginot Line.

:applause:


:sarcasm:

[Demeter]

130. And You Know What Came After

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

133. Oui.

[Fuddnik]

137. Si.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

134. Slip sliding away...

You know the nearer your destination the more you're slip slidin' away...

11K, damnit!

[Fuddnik]

135. Market Bear Hits Out at "Happy Clappie" Rivals

Published: Tuesday, 9 Aug 2011 | 8:08 AM ET
Text Size
By: Patrick Allen
CNBC EMEA Head of News


The market meltdown of recent days has nothing to do with the S&P downgrade of US debt and is all about the economy according to noted bear, Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale.

"The simple fact is that the global economy is falling back into recession or indeed is already in recession . Equity markets were sliding before the downgrade and bond yields were reacting as one would have expected to the dire economic data" said Edwards in a research note on Tuesday.

Whilst conceding that the downgrade may have caused the S&P 500 <.SPX 1141.53 22.07 (+1.97%) > to breach critical support at 1250, Edwards is predicting the market could retest these levels before it "ultimately meets its date with destiny".

Given weak second quarter GDP data in the US Edwards believes the impact of QE2 on actual growth was small and thinks the "adrenalin rush of QE3" will wear off “even quicker than QE2."

"There are still some diehard happy clappies out there who think we are going to avert recession and the markets will recover," he said. "Yet US GDP growth has now fallen below the well known 2 percent stall speed, below which the economy does not seem to be able to regain altitude but instead crashes directly into recession."


Having faced "ridicule, derision and utter contempt" when predicting the S&P 500 could hit 400 in May, Edwards hit out at those he deems "happy clappies"

(snip)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44071889

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

138. I know I can! I know I can!

[Demeter]

166. Ahem...as a professional mother

who has several children's classics of literature permanently burned into her PSTD brain...the correct phrase is

"I THINK I can....I Think I Can.."

And at the top of the mountain, "I THOUGHT I could...I Thought I could..."

[Pale Blue Dot]

139. The Fed obviously just said something the markets didn't want to hear.

At 2:20, there was a sudden drop.

[Pale Blue Dot]

140. According to MSNBC, they've promised to hold rates low through mid-2013.

It seems like an admission to me, and it must to the markets as well.

Holy crap!

[Fuddnik]

141. Yeah, I checked about a half hour ago.

It was up 119 pts.

Now I just checked, and said well it's only up 63. Then I noticed the numbers were red.

Can't get on CNBC and see what the yammering idiots are saying. We've been having heavy rain all day, and I just switched to DirecTV, so it's acting like the market. Up, down, up down. I think we've gotten at least four inches. The pool is ready to overflow.


In the seconds it took me to type the above, Dow is now down 188pts.

How down, brown Dow.

So shoot me.

[Fuddnik]

143. It's going nutz again.

Seconds later it's only down 100 pts.

And the electric is starting to flicker.

[Ghost Dog]

142. Reuters:

...Investors had been hoping for action from the Fed to alleviate worries the economy could fall back into recession, which had pushed Wall Street higher for most of the day.

However, the central bank's options appeared to be limited because the current crisis is not liquidity-driven...

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/uk-markets-global-idUKTRE7760BN20110809

[tawadi]

145. Seems nobody will alleviate any worries

Where is Bill Clinton when we need him? We could use some optimism these days.

[Fuddnik]

146. Probably on the phone with his broker.

[tawadi]

150. lol

:D

[Ghost Dog]

144. Bloombug:

The Federal Reserve pledged for the first time to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low at least through mid-2013 in a bid to revive the flagging recovery after a worldwide stock rout.

The Federal Open Market Committee discussed a range of policy tools to bolster the economy and said it is “prepared to employ these tools as appropriate,” it said in a statement today in Washington. Three members of the FOMC dissented, preferring to maintain the pledge to keep rates low for an “extended period.”

The decision represents the biggest effort since November to spark the U.S. economy and revive confidence while stopping short of initiating a third round of large-scale asset purchases. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues acted after reports showed the economy was slowing and an unprecedented downgrade to the U.S. credit rating sent stocks tumbling from Sydney to New York.

The Fed offered a dimmer view of the economy than it did in the last statement in late June. “Economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the committee had expected,” it said. The Fed also said it expects a “somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters,” adding that “downside risks to the economic outlook have increased.”...

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/fed-to-keep-rates-at-record-lows-at-least-through-mid-2013.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

147. And it bounces back quickly.

Why would any sane person want to have anything to do with stocks right now?

[Fuddnik]

148. And it's down again.

I've never seen this kind of volatility.

100 and 200 point swings in seconds both ways, over and over.

Short circuit in HFT computers? Anonymous? Satan? The Tea Fairy?

[Ghost Dog]

151. :shrug:

And... Scramble For Safety
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/09/2011 14:37 -0400



While stocks right now are trading based on mean reversion algos and other trivial and highly irrelevant drivers of noise, the scramble for safety spikes, with both the 10 Year yield plunging post the announcement (no forced steepening yet), and the USDCHF hitting fresh all time lows of 0.7185, and the EURCHF about to test parity even ahead of our aggressive timeline. That person crouched in a corner, crying violently in a helpless daze is none other than SNB president Philipp Hildebrand who has just thrown in the towel on fighting the Fed while playing by its rules.

/.. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/and-scramble-safety

:shrug:

Swiss Franc Rises Sharply Against Majors Amid Fed's Rate Decision

BRUSSELS (dpa-AFX) - The Swiss franc edged up sharply against major currencies after the announcement of Fed's interest rate decision at about 2:15 pm ET Tuesday. The Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC , Fed's policy making arm, maintained its key interest rate unchanged at 0.25 percent.

At present, the franc is trading near new record highs of 1.1651 against the British pound, 1.0216 versus the euro and 0.7180 against the dollar.

/.. http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2011-08/21030054-swiss-franc-rises-sharply-against-majors-amid-fed-s-rate-decision-020.htm

[Ghost Dog]

149. Full FOMC statement:

There are two key changes.

First, the Fed has given a semi-specific date for the continuation of the federal funds rate at “exceptionally low levels”. It says that “low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run” warrant maintaining current rates until “at least” 2013.

Second, it has stronger suggestive language on other forms intervention (such as Operation Twist).

The final paragraph is a new one, and reflects no doubt heated discussion about what to do next...

/... http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08/09/648536/fomc-statement-9-august-2011/

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected. Indicators suggest a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up. Household spending has flattened out, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Temporary factors, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan, appear to account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity. Inflation picked up earlier in the year, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the supply chain disruptions. More recently, inflation has moderated as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their earlier peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting and anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

Voting against the action were: Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who would have preferred to continue to describe economic conditions as likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.

/... http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110809a.htm

[Ghost Dog]

153. Goldman's Take: "Fed Returns To Monetary Easing"

Goldman demanded it, Goldman ordered it, Goldman got it.

Fed Returns to Monetary Easing

BOTTOM LINE: Despite three dissents--the largest number since 1992--the committee adopted an even easier policy stance than expected: first, the committee now anticipates that rates will stay on hold "at least through mid-2013." Second, the committee effectively signaled an easing bias saying that it is prepared to employ additional easing steps as appropriate...

3. Moreover, the committee effectively signaled an easing bias saying that it discussed "the range of policy tools necessary to promote a stronger economic recovery" and that it "is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate." In our view, this leaves open the possibility of further asset purchases ("QE3") should the economic outlook deteriorate further from here.

/more... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldmans-take-fed-returns-moentary-easing

[Hugin]

156. "Goldman demanded it, Goldman ordered it, Goldman got it."

Funny how these things happen, eh?

I could certainly use some "monetary easing" right about now... Think I'M going to get it? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! :rofl:

[Jon Ace]

158. DJIA Up 3% @ 3:55pm edt

Can you say "dead cat bounce"?

[Hugin]

159. 11,240.15 +430.30 (3.98%)

Come ON, baby needs new shoes!

[Tansy_Gold]

164. An economy does not bounce around like this

A ball on a roulette wheel does.



TG

[AnneD]

170. So true......

And remember this boys and girls....the odds are always in favor of the house.

Repeat again class.....the odds are always in favor of the house.

Now you have been properly schooled. Go forth and invest wisely.

[nc4bo]

172. A healthy economy. This insanity's more like a symptom of a chronic, perhaps fatal illness.

Scary that it's all seen as normal. Scarier that so many people's retirements are tied up in it and God forbid if R's get their way and try to put what's left of our SS into this meat grinder.

:mad:

[Demeter]

165. Is it safe to come out now?

:hide:

NPR had a bunch of scoffers deriding gold this afternoon...they miss the whole point about money and gold.

The number one asset about gold is: IT CANNOT BE COUNTERFEITED. Sure, you can try to pull a fast one on rubes, but gold isn't created with the flick of keyboard, and any knowledgable money=changer will assay when in doubt.

The Shadow Banking System (tm) is basically a semi-formal, semi-legitimate way to counterfeit fiat currency. And that's what has been going on since the time of Reagan, on steroids. Not to say it didn't happen before Reagan, but he gave new meaning to the crime.

Po says that $7.4T in counterfeit currency evaporated yesterday. I doubt if that amounted to much more than all the QE that everybody's been doing. And then this afternoon the PPT went out and counterfeited some more.

It's a sick kind of game.

The only legitimate function of money is to represent the value of labor. If fiat money is "created" without any labor behind it, it is counterfeit, pure and simple. And as a result, legitimate labor is devalued.

There was a Sci-fic by Anne McCaffrey in which credit was only created by labor and credited to the laborer, who then distributed it by paying taxes, buying goods and services, etc. It could be transferred between parties, but no bank or government could just "print more" at will. That would be the safest kind of "value transfer system", and the security would be a bear to maintain.

[Fuddnik]

171. Nope.

Go hide.

Do not look at LBN.

Be scared.

:scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared:

Reid made his appointments to the Super Congress.

I won't tell you who they were.

But one of them spells his name.....
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v

B

A

U

C

U

S

v
v
v
v
v
v
:scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared:

We're Dead.

[Demeter]

173. I Hate Harry

Wild about Harry--and not in a good way.

What are the odds on Baucus disqualifying himself--preferably permanently, like a stroke?

[mnhtnbb]

176. Buy low. Sell high. If you can't stand the roller coaster...don't ride.

[hamerfan]

177. You can do both

On the same day, anymore....