Solar Storms Could Debilitate Earth this Decade: NOAA

[IDemo]

Source: International Business Times

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a federal agency that focuses on the condition of the oceans and atmosphere, said that a severe solar storm could cause global chaos, debilitating satellite communications and taking down the most important global power grids.

The NOAA predicted four extreme solar emissions which could threaten the planet this decade. Similarly, NASA warned that a peak in the sun's magnetic energy cycle and the number of sun spots or flares around 2013 could enable extremely high radiation levels.

Government studies revealed that extreme solar flare emissions could cause blackouts, possibly for years, in large portions of the U.S.

This type of storm could also induce geomagnetic currents that could debilitate transformers on the power grid. Electric power would be out for years or even decades.

Read more: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/193644/20110806/solar-storms-earth-sun.htm

[icymist]

1. Don't hand us all those fact thingies....

We need more cuts in spending so the rich can have fun! We can't invest in the electrical grid infrastructure!

[Bigmack]

3. Or scientific research....

Who needs to waste tax money on studying the sun? It's MILLIONS of miles away. We need to buy guns and tanks to protect our security. What does the SUN have to do with national security? Or something..... Ms Bigmack

[BackToThe60s]

90. Besides, Jesus is Coming Soon

O8)

[babydollhead]

2. good time to get to know your neighbors

good time to become communities again.

Good time for a common place to meet.

Last time our electricity went out, I realized that I would be one of those people who just sits in their recliner and dies!

Our neighborhood has contingency plans. we had a meeting and divided up the concerns and who would be in charge of what.

One woman volunteered to go to the state store (where Pennsylvanians buy alcohol) If she got there and it was closed she would not want to live.

My area was to find out about water.

At the next meeting everyone was reporting what they had found out...when it came to my turn I had nothing to say, I had forgotten!!

I said, "don't put me in charge of important things!" I'll provide comic relief, A.T.L.G.O. (after the lights go out).

[Turbineguy]

25. Comic relief

may just be the stone overlooked.

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. 2013 peak is expected to be the lowest since 1928

I think the IBT has reported whatever NOAA and NASA said very sensationalistically.

[IDemo]

5. More on that from NASA:

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/

It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.

"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. I'd like to know if the sunspot activity has any relation to geomagnetic events, then

IBT tells us that the peak in 2013 means something (but I don't trust them to report anything right at all); is there any reason to think this will be worse than the peak in the early 2000s, when there were a lot more sunspots than predicted for 2013?

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

It turns out the latest prediction is for the lowest peak number of sunspots since 1907.

[SkyDaddy7]

12. That does not take away from the VERY REAL

dangers CME pose to our 21st Century lifestyles. All it takes is one.

[muriel_volestrangler]

58. And that's why I'd like to know if these 'very real dangers' are greater or lesser

than the 11 years of the 21st century we've already gone without a major event, including a sunspot peak higher than the next expected one.

[earcandle]

49. wow!

[creeksneakers2]

31. How come

the article about solar storms on the front page of NOAA's website doesn't say anything about power going out for decades or any other disaster predictions? How come more media isn't reporting this danger if its real?

http://www.noaa.gov/features/03_protecting/whenthesunactsup.html

[muriel_volestrangler]

101. Here we have a better explanation

Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at Reading, said: "All the evidence suggests that the Sun will shortly exit from a grand solar maximum that has persisted since before the start of the space age.
...
The most disruptive radiation is from solar energetic particles, which are carried away from the Sun by coronal mass ejections, or solar storms, which explode from the Sun's surface.

The evidence seems to indicate that although there are fewer solar storms once the Sun leaves its grand maximum, they are more powerful, faster and therefore carry more particles.

A decline in solar activity also allows more radiation from other parts of the galaxy to enter the Solar System.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14580995

So this is about the longer cycle, rather than the 11 year cycle; and it's not a matter of how many solar storms there are (which is linked to the sunspot number), but how powerful one that hits the Earth is.

An article which seems to contain more of the university press release:

Professor Lockwood said: "All the evidence suggests that the Sun will shortly exit from a grand solar maximum that has persisted since before the start of the space age. This analysis shows that the risk of the space-weather effects is considerably enhanced over the next century compared to the space age thus far."

The researchers use past experience to predict that there is an 8% chance of the Sun falling to grand minimum conditions over the next 40 years, giving enhanced dosages of GCR radiation which is of concern for aircraft avionics, crew and passengers. The risk of large SEP events is higher at middling levels of solar activity and so is initially enhanced in this case but then decreases to almost zero during the grand minimum itself.

A more likely scenario, predicted from the mean of all previous examples, is a more modest rise in the GCR fluxes but an enhanced risk of a large SEP event. There is only a 5% chance that the SEP risk and the GCR hazard will increase only slightly above those for the present solar cycle.
...
Grand solar maxima. A series of high activity solar cycles. The cosmogenic isotope record shows that there have been 24 such maxima in the past 9300 years. Recent decades (since 1920) form the longest-lived grand solar maxima in that interval.

http://www.healthcanal.com/public-health-safety/19666-Change-solar-activity-brings-increased-radiation-risk-air-passengers.html

[Cool Logic]

6. They said that last year. They also said Solar Storms can Change Directions, Surprising Forecasters

It's somewhat difficult to predict what might happen 93 million miles away from Earth.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/21sep_zigzag/

http://sciencecastle.com/sc/index.php/home/solar_storms_create_chaos_in_2010

[Pharaoh]

7. I know

Some on this board refuse to understand the seriousness of the situation.

[aquart]

9. All those cell phones.

[TalkingDog]

10. Cell phones? Ummmm... okay

How about all those EVERYTHINGS?

Computers, satellites, internets, power grid...

all those things that either make life easier or possible at all for some people.

[Hawkowl]

50. Cars, airplanes, toasters,

T.V.s. Basically everything with electric wiring and a microchip could be fried. Modern cities are unsurvivable without power and the ability to import food and pump water.

[Ter]

88. Would it be airplanes themselves?

I thought it just effects those things that are plugged in. I mean, they will lose contact with GPS and the ground station, but their wiring itself would be ok, wouldn't it? Either way, still very dangerous without any communication and radar.

[Hawkowl]

89. The instruments

The instruments on modern airplanes are all on cathode ray tubes, and the actual engine controls are all electronic, i.e; no physical linkage. Almost all the systems are heavily software dependent. So a good chance the engines shut off and certainly you would have no instruments.

[boppers]

91. "The instruments on modern airplanes are all on cathode ray tubes"

Hilarious.

[Hawkowl]

92. Glass

The displays are what we call "glass", i.e; CRT displays. The actual instruments are of various types, flux detectors, gyroscopes, temp and pressure sensors etc.

[boppers]

100. This is a Cirrus SR-22 cockpit. (I've flown this model, lots of fun)

I count 4 LCD displays, 3 analog displays, and exactly zero Cathode Ray Tubes.

4 displays, 4 pieces of "glass", none of which are CRTs. LCD's provide the same capability, with less weight, in a smaller overall form factor, than a CRT can (and, as an added safety bonus, can be made from mostly plastic, eliminating much of the glass from the "glass").

This is a CRT:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cathode_ray_tube

I wasn't picking on "what defines an instrument". It was the "cathode ray tube" statement that I found funny.

[0rganism]

85. "That's a veeery nice Everything you've got there..."

"...shame if something were to happen to it..." </yogscast>

[MsKandice01]

11. Sounds like sensationalism to me...

[valerief]

40. Me, too. Funny how it coincides with the total lack of will to rebuild our infrastructure now.

"We can't rebuild, because the sun will just ruin it anyway." Handy.

[Pharaoh]

67. interesting also that peak activity

is scheduled at the end of 2012

[live love laugh]

68. Funny how it overshadows the ramifications of global warming. Sounds like bunk, nt

[neverforget]

46. Not sensationalism. In 1859, a solar storm started fires in telegraph offices

That was 1859. Just think what could/would happen now if such a storm were to hit.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/23oct_superstorm/

<snip>
In scientific circles where solar flares, magnetic storms and other unique solar events are discussed, the occurrences of September 1-2, 1859, are the star stuff of legend. Even 144 years ago, many of Earth's inhabitants realized something momentous had just occurred. Within hours, telegraph wires in both the United States and Europe spontaneously shorted out, causing numerous fires, while the Northern Lights, solar-induced phenomena more closely associated with regions near Earth's North Pole, were documented as far south as Rome, Havana and Hawaii, with similar effects at the South Pole.

What happened in 1859 was a combination of several events that occurred on the Sun at the same time. If they took place separately they would be somewhat notable events. But together they caused the most potent disruption of Earth's ionosphere in recorded history. "What they generated was the perfect space storm," says Bruce Tsurutani, a plasma physicist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
<snip>

<snip>
In March 1989, a solar storm much less intense than the perfect space storm of 1859 caused the Hydro-Quebec (Canada) power grid to go down for over nine hours, and the resulting damages and loss in revenue were estimated to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
<snip>

[Pooka Fey]

64. + 1

[blkmusclmachine]

13. Oh, great. It's not like we don't have anything else to battle...

:nuke:

[Drale]

14. They've said this before

I'm not saying they are wrong, but I will remain skeptical until something like this actually happens.

[defendandprotect]

51. Good, you'll probably have a plan to deal with it by then -- !!! What?

Something like this did actually happen -- !! 1859!!!

[Rincewind]

15. The most important question is;

How can we blame President Obama for this?

[dana_b]

38. LOL

ah gawd - I shouldn't be laughing at that.

[Orrex]

16. All you Obama cheerleaders will probably blame this on Republicans again

:evilgrin:

[villager]

27. Nah, they'll blame it on the liberals.

;-)

[itsrobert]

17. Still waiting for the Bird Flu to take me out

Wasn't that suppose to happen 2 years ago? And yet I am very much alive. wonders of wonders.

[Mojorabbit]

23. I am still keeping my eye on it

It is still killing a person here and there and chickens are dropping like flies the past several months but it hasn't found the right click in the tumbler yet.

[valerief]

42. Or SARS. nt

[hootinholler]

65. You missed it! Photo:

-Hoot

[Butch350]

18. Is there any F**King good news on this dam planet.

Everywhere nothing but bad news. geez.!

[russspeakeasy]

36. Brett Farve may be coming back...

thats the best I could do on short notice....

[chervilant]

55. Soooooooo laughing over here... n/t

[Towlie]

39. Good news: Hollywood is rushing to make a cool disaster movie about this.

[BiggJawn]

41. i just saved a buncha money on my car insurance...

Remember those ads?

[Beam Me Up]

56. nope. i SO want em to beam me up. :\

[sofa king]

73. Tyrod Taylor has the #2 spot at Baltimore, too.

Should we be temporarily spared from the inevitable tide of cataclysm that will wash most of us away and steadily erode all trace of our meaningless existence, young Tyrod Taylor, recently of Virginia Tech, is once again strategically placed to come off the bench as a rookie and lead his new team to unexpected success.

If he does, his uncommon abilities will instantly draw comparison to his school's most prominent and notorious predecessor, and now you will be able to watch it from the beginning... until it all ends.

[ThoughtCriminal]

19. Well, we could prepare for this and should

A severe 100-year solar event or man-made EMP event would be devastating. Trillions of dollars of damage and even mass starvation from a breakdown in transportation.

But unfortunately, creating backups and hardening our infrastructure against such a catastrophe might actually have the side effect of creating some jobs, so any serious effort to prepare will probably be blocked.

[mac56]

26. +1

[FourScore]

20. Bookmarking. k/r nt

[AllyCat]

21. Damn scientists! Quick! Cut their funding.

[ThoughtCriminal]

35. Guess what?

http://www.spacenews.com/civil/110718-house-panel-denies-funding-for-dscovr-cosmic-2-missions.html

[rbnyc]

22. This will end the obesity epidemic.

:evilgrin:

[Mojorabbit]

24. I am so uninformed about this kind of thing

would this mess up solar powered things also or just the grid?

[ThoughtCriminal]

28. If it is isolated from the grid - probably safer

As I understand it (not a scientist, don't play one on TV) the miles of transmission wires are what make the electrical grid vulnerable. So, I would expect that smaller isolated solar panels are less vulnerable. I do not know enough about how solar panel systems that are connected to the grid are protected to say what would happen in that scenario.

What happens in a major geomagnetic storm is current induced in the transmission lines causes transformers to overheat and blow.

[Yon_Yonson]

29. Is this like the Y2K bug?

I don’t know what to believe anymore … maybe chicken little was right! THE SKY IS FALLING, THE SKY IS FALLING

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5Pi-oW7O-9M/TNFXFya7c1I/AAAAAAAAAVc/z62s1k__DGc/s1600/chicken+little+2.jpg

[ThoughtCriminal]

34. No, this has actually happened before

1859 Carrington Event in particular.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm#Historical_occurrences

[Yon_Yonson]

62. Intresting and thanks for sharing that

[Stardust]

45. Y2K catastrophy didn't happen due to the thousands of hours that

scientists, programmers and engineers spent to avert it. That's one threat you can rest assured was real.

[Yon_Yonson]

61. I was working as a Mech Engineer then

I do recall all the engineering activity applied to the solutions of that enigma even though I wasn't directly involved.

[99th_Monkey]

30. Decentralize & localize energy production w/ wind & solar ASAP nt

[ThoughtCriminal]

32. Early warning system - Al Gore's satellite that GOP killed

http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1102/21dscovr/

(Feb, 2011)
The White House is requesting $47 million in fiscal year 2012 to convert a climate satellite grounded by politics into an observatory to monitor space weather and warn of solar storms.
.
.
.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would manage the DSCOVR mission as an operational sentinel to give notice of approaching solar storms with potentially calamitous consequences for terrestrial electrical grids, communications, GPS navigation, air travel, satellite operations and human spaceflight.

"The FY2012 funds would support the refurbishment of an existing NASA satellite, DSCOVR," said Jane Lubchenco, NOAA's administrator. "This acquisition will allow NOAA to continue to receive vital data to help anticipate and mitigate space weather damage, which could potentially result in costs to the United States of $1 to $2 trillion."
.
.
.
The DSCOVR mission was conceived by former Vice President Al Gore in the late 1990s. Gore envisioned the satellite would beam back live pictures of the Earth 24 hours a day, boosting interest in environmental concerns. Scientists developed observation cameras to collect data on the planet's radiation budget. But Congress and the George W. Bush administration balked at the mission. NASA formally terminated the project in 2005 after spending $97 million.

---
Edit - UPDATE - They killed it again last month.

http://www.spacenews.com/civil/110718-house-panel-denies-funding-for-dscovr-cosmic-2-missions.html

WASHINGTON — The U.S. House Appropriations Committee on July 13 approved a 2012 spending bill that would deny funding for a pair of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite programs, one to provide advance warning of solar storms, the other a collaborative project with Taiwan.

The 2012 budget request NOAA sent to Congress in February asked for $47.3 million for the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) and $11.3 million for the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2). The House bill would not provide funding for either project.

[iamthebandfanman]

33. the worse things get, the more i think they all know we are doomed

to some planet event and so they are all grabbing all the money and power they can because in 60 years wont matter

[defendandprotect]

52. Exactly -- PLUS all of the weather disasters over last 15 years have COST a great deal --

Elites haven't been ignoring this -- especially insurance companies --

Meanwhile, our Congress is under the control of the oil and coal industries --

according to Al Gore in his Rolling Stone article --

and we have a Goebbels' style corporate-press -- !!

[Taverner]

37. Aw shit yet another harbinger for our soon-to-be Mad Max existence...

[BiggJawn]

43. Well, at least the Aurora will be pretty.

No shit? the power grid out for DECADES? Real ass-biter, that deferred maintenance...

[Gman]

44. So WTF else is going to go wrong??

[bertman]

47. Very interesting post, IDemo. Thanks for enlightening us. There is a book that I read about a year

ago that deals with this subject--the destruction of the energy infrastructure and all devices that operate on electronics by some type of electromagnetic pulse blast high up in the atmosphere. In the case of this book it was done as a form of a nuclear attack on the U.S. and the western nations, but the effect would likely be very similar to what is described in the article here. I am a bit reluctant to post the name of the book because the foreword is by the Newtster--yes Gingrich. HOWEVER, if you can get past that, the book is a very realistic description of what would happen if our nation or our industrial world had all of its energy sources fried, as well as things like the electronic ignition on automobiles. We take so much for granted in our day-to-day living that it's unimaginable how terrible the consequences of something like a major solar storm would be.

The name of the book is One Second After, by Forstschen. It's a really interesting tale.

REC.

[Strelnikov_]

48. Carrington Event (Solar storm of 1859) is estimated as a 500 yr. event

Pretty high odds for something they really don't seem to be doing anything about. Particularly considering the damage it would cause, which is possibly large parts of the country without power for months or years due to damage, primarily to transformers.

But I am sure all those emergency generators at the nuke plants will come on and be able to run for a year.

Then again, designing and building safeguards into the grid might add 3% to costs, obviously an unacceptable risk to profits.

Oh, and regarding massive Tsunami . . .

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=72589


We live in a complex industrial society, where minimal safeguards for these type of events are being considered, because they add a bit to cost.

150 years ago, it was just a bunch of bright lights. Today, it would be the death of tens of millions (no power, meaning no water in New York, Chicago, Boston, for a year?) and the possible collapse of our complex industrial society.

4000 years ago, it was a biblical myth. Today, it would be the destruction of a large part of the worlds oil export market, not to mention the 100's of millions dead along the Indian and South Pacific basins.


I was going to read One Second After, but the forward by the Newt turned me off. Guess I need to hold my nose and give it a read.

[bertman]

71. Yep, I wanted to puke when I saw that fat bastard's name on the forward, BUT

the book is a revelation of the effects of some type of instantaneous--or even near-instantaneous loss of our power grid.

Not to quibble, but it would mean NO WATER for MOST OF US regardless of whether we were in the major metropolitan areas or in the suburbs or the countryside. No electricity means well pumps do not operate. Septic system pumps do not operate without electricity and toilets do not flush without electricity powering the pumps that send the water to our homes.

I had never really thought about the 'snowball' effect on our lives if something like this happened and had only imagined being kind of a New Age Daniel Boone-type homesteader. RIGHT!!! NOT.

Another element of this type of catastrophe is the loss of medical facilities and medicines that many of us--and not just the elderly--rely upon to make our lives bearable.

What happens to normally kind and loving, community-oriented people when their child's medicine that he/she needs to survive is no longer available and someone else "less needy" has some of it?

Okay, that's enough. The book is very informative. Enough said.

[defendandprotect]

53. Not sure about this but isn't the sun getting hotter because earth can't absorb

as much heat as it used to?

Keep in mind we have also so saturated nature with carbon dioxide that the oceans and

what's left of our trees are about unable to absorb any more of it!!

[muriel_volestrangler]

59. No.

The vast majority of the Sun's energy goes straight out to space in all directions. The presence or absence of the Earth (which takes up a minuscule part of the 'sky' when viewed from the region of the Sun - think how small Venus appears from the Earth; it'll be about the same) has no significant effect on it, let alone the amount of energy that is reflected back from the Earth. Also, global warming means the Earth is, very slowly, absorbing more heat than it used to, not less. That heat is what is slowly warming the Earth.

[defendandprotect]

72. No -- The earth is not absorbing more heat from the sun -- it is absorbing LESS heat from sun....

Global Warming is about HEAT trapped in our atmosphere --

not about our absorbing more heat from the sun --

True -- as the glaciers have melted the earth is radiating less heat back into space --

in those areas where rocks have been exposed and ice is gone.

This is also true in area of Great Lakes where there is no longer a dependable ice/snow

cover in winter.

Our sun has not created Global Warming -- human activity has created Global Warming --

beginning at the least in the 1880's with the Industrial Revolution and escalating in the

1940's with the war production -- and certainly with the transition from the electric car

to the gasoline engine.

Think we both have some work to do on this subject -- back later when I get a chance to

take another look at it --

[muriel_volestrangler]

76. Heat trapped in the atmosphere is heat that has been absorbed from the sun

There is a small amount of heat generated by radioactive elements inside the earth, but most of the energy we see at the surface comes from the Sun. A lot comes in as visible light, which heats the surface, and this is radiated out again as infra-red. Greenhouse gases make the atmosphere more opaque to the infra-red, and so it acts as better insulation against the infra-red radiation getting back out to space - which heats the earth (including the lower atmosphere) up, gradually.

So global warming does mean that the Earth is absorbing more heat from the Sun.

Perhaps when you say 'Earth' you mean just the solid land and the oceans; when I'm saying it, I'm including the atmosphere. That might explain things.

[defendandprotect]

77. Global Warming is caused by burning of fossil fuels .... it is not caused by the sun...!!

This was just the first article that came up but many more will explain the

the cause of Global Warming --

and, yes, along the way we have had scientists who have tried to suggest this

has to do with the sun, but that is not what the majority of our scientists report.

And it would be contrary to Greenhouse effect when CO2 is added to the atmosphere --



Earth is heating up lately, but so are Mars, Pluto and other worlds in our solar system, leading some scientists to speculate that a change in the sun’s activity is the common thread linking all these baking events.

Others argue that such claims are misleading and create the false impression that rapid global warming, as Earth is experiencing, is a natural phenomenon.

While evidence suggests fluctuations in solar activity can affect climate on Earth, and that it has done so in the past, the majority of climate scientists and astrophysicists agree that the sun is not to blame for the current and historically sudden uptick in global temperatures on Earth, which seems to be mostly a mess created by our own species.

http://www.livescience.com/1349-sun-blamed-warming-earth-worlds.html



Heat from the sun is being trapped in the upper atmosphere -- i.e., the sun's warmth is reaching

the planet but not be reradiated back out into space -- rather it is being TRAPPED by CO2.


However, by now scientists are seeing that the oceans and what's left of our trees and areas

of the earth which have pretty much reached their maximum absorption of Carbon Dioxide may

be beginning to RELEASE it. Certainly as trees die or are felled, they release the CO2 they

have absorbed.

The increased volumes of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases released by the burning of fossil fuels, land clearing, agriculture, and other human activities, are believed to be the primary sources of the global warming that has occurred over the past 50 years.

http://www.livescience.com/topics/global-warming/


I'd also comment that the "50 year" reference is in error --

Oddly enough, Ross Gelbspan also makes references to our coming to know about GW in

late 1990's -- and he does that in both of his books -- "The Heat is On!" and "Boiling Point."

HOWEVER, scientists have known about the impact of the industrial revolution on nature/trees

back into the 1880's at the latest -- and we had a model of Global Warming and Greenhouse

effect in 1957 -- that is, the public did. Obviously, scientists would have known about it

earlier --


If you're interested here's 1992 World Scientists' Warning to Humanity
Scientist Statement
World Scientists' Warning to Humanity (1992)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some 1,700 of the world's leading scientists, including the majority of Nobel laureates in the sciences, issued this appeal in November 1992. The World Scientists' Warning to Humanity was written and spearheaded by the late Henry Kendall, former chair of UCS's board of directors.

http://www.ucsusa.org/about/1992-world-scientists.html

And it was met by total silence!


But under "What We must Do" ... this is the first of the interlinking solutions ---

We must bring environmentally damaging activities under control to restore and protect the integrity of the earth's systems we depend on.


We must, for example, move away from fossil fuels to more benign, inexhaustible energy sources to cut greenhouse gas emissions and the pollution of our air and water. Priority must be given to the development of energy sources matched to Third World needs -- small-scale and relatively easy to implement.


We must halt deforestation, injury to and loss of agricultural land, and the loss of terrestrial and marine plant and animal species.



Here also is an interesting NASA site --


About half the carbon dioxide emitted into the air from burning fossil fuels dissolves in the ocean. This map shows the total amount of human-made carbon dioxide in ocean water from the surface to the sea floor. Blue areas have low amounts, while yellow regions are rich in anthropogenic carbon dioxide. High amounts occur where currents carry the carbon-dioxide-rich surface water into the ocean depths. (Map adapted from Sabine et al., 2004.)


The impact of climate change on the land carbon cycle is extremely complex, but on balance, land carbon sinks will become less efficient as plants reach saturation, where they can no longer take up additional carbon dioxide, and other limitations on growth occur, and as land starts to add more carbon to the atmosphere from warming soil, fires, and insect infestations. This will result in a faster increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and more rapid global warming. In some climate models, carbon cycle feedbacks from both land and ocean add more than a degree Celsius to global temperatures by 2100.
Under a warmer climate, soils, especially thawing Arctic tundra, could release trapped carbon dioxide or methane to the atmosphere. Increased fire frequency and insect infestations also release more carbon as trees burn or die and decay.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page5.php

[muriel_volestrangler]

79. Again, what I said was: "Greenhouse gases make the atmosphere more opaque to the infra-red"

Which is exactly what you say:

"Heat from the sun is being trapped in the upper atmosphere -- i.e., the sun's warmth is reaching

the planet but not be reradiated back out into space -- rather it is being TRAPPED by CO2."

To be honest, I know all the stuff you're linking to, and I think I know how to express it a lot better than you do, so there's not much point in carrying on this conversation if you're going to mangle it like that. However, I think we have now established that the answer to your original question "isn't the sun getting hotter because earth can't absorb as much heat as it used to?" is most definitely 'no'.

[defendandprotect]

86. Are you suggesting that the SUN is responsible for Global Warming?

Let's clear that up first --

[muriel_volestrangler]

93. I don't know how many times I'm going to have to say this to you

Energy comes from the Sun, as visible light. It heats the Earth, which reradiates it as infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, are semi-opaque to this, so an increase in greenhouse gases traps more of the reradiated energy, warming the Earth gradually.

[newspeak]

94. so, how does a depleted ozone layer affect this event?

Back in the 19th century, I don't think they had holes in the ozone layer.

[defendandprotect]

96. True -- we're hearing very little about the Ozone layer and damage to it --

probably time to look for some current info on it --

presume NASA might still have some kind of a report --

[muriel_volestrangler]

97. It doesn't. The ozone layer prevents ultraviolet radiation coming into the earth

and its problem is that CFCs break up ozone. It's a completely separate problem from global warming.

[defendandprotect]

95. Green House Effect: Sun's rays radiate in and OUT -- CO2 is the problem ... not the sun!

[muriel_volestrangler]

98. Here's a nice little animation for you, from the BBC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/sci_nat/04/climate_change/html/greenhouse.stm

As you'll see, it's what I've already said, but maybe the pictures will help you.

[snooper2]

83. ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL

series ?

Come on D&P, you can do us better than this...

:P

[99th_Monkey]

54. Scientific Attention Whores I'd say.

WTF do they know!

Given we have such a very limited choice in the first place,
then it's all about it being either tits-up or thumbs-up,
So We/I'll (who wouldn't?) take thumbs up everytime.

This is the no-brainer lie that is killing us all.

[Kablooie]

57. Wow. I'd better start reading more of the Little House On The Prairie books to prepare.

[newfie11]

60. OK so we make it past the end of the world in 2012

only to have all the power destroyed in 2013. Maybe we can look on the bright side. There should be lots of work restoring the power grid.Oops forgot about the repigs. Of course they will not vote for government interference. Let the masses wither and die.

:sarcasm:
in case it's needed

[hootinholler]

63. I'd love to see the reports that they based this on!

I think they are trying to sell papers, and it smells of bullshit.

-Hoot

[robcon]

70. It not only smells like bullshit, it looks like bullshit and feels like bullshit.

n/t

[neverforget]

74. Those who don't study the past are condemned to repeat it.

It's happened before and it will happen again.

I posted this up thread in #46

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/23oct_superstorm/


<snip>
In scientific circles where solar flares, magnetic storms and other unique solar events are discussed, the occurrences of September 1-2, 1859, are the star stuff of legend. Even 144 years ago, many of Earth's inhabitants realized something momentous had just occurred. Within hours, telegraph wires in both the United States and Europe spontaneously shorted out, causing numerous fires, while the Northern Lights, solar-induced phenomena more closely associated with regions near Earth's North Pole, were documented as far south as Rome, Havana and Hawaii, with similar effects at the South Pole.

What happened in 1859 was a combination of several events that occurred on the Sun at the same time. If they took place separately they would be somewhat notable events. But together they caused the most potent disruption of Earth's ionosphere in recorded history. "What they generated was the perfect space storm," says Bruce Tsurutani, a plasma physicist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
<snip>

<snip>
In March 1989, a solar storm much less intense than the perfect space storm of 1859 caused the Hydro-Quebec (Canada) power grid to go down for over nine hours, and the resulting damages and loss in revenue were estimated to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
<snip>

[undeterred]

66. Thats not a solar storm, its Jesus!

[Magleetis]

69. We have the power to stop this

Simply free Warren Jeffs.

[Pacifist Patriot]

75. I doubt the sun could debilitate us any worse than the GOP has set out to do.

[FrodosPet]

78. Not just conjecture - it has happened in the past

A "Carrington Event" level storm knocking out the electric grid would kill millions from starvation and thirst.

We NEED that early warning satellite in place, and we need the transformers protected in the event of a storm. A blackout of a few hours beats a blackout of a few years.

[Pacifist Patriot]

80. My comment wasn't meant to be taken either seriously or literally.

It was just a pithy jab at the Republicans.

[Javaman]

81. All it takes is one direct hit from a big solar flare...

then fzzzt! And you will be thinking of the best way to shoe your horse.

[fascisthunter]

82. geez

[Dark]

84. This is why we should cut their budget. If NOAA doesn't exist, then it wouldn't tell us and

we wouldn't have to worry about it.

/tea party logic

[Vidar]

87. Don't worry; our ozone layer will save us . . . Never mind.

[Bragi]

99. Someone should keep an eye on that /nt