Double-Dip Recession May Be Returning

[alp227]

Source: The New York Times

Double dip may be back.

It has been three decades since the United States suffered a recession that followed on the heels of the previous one. But it could be happening again. The unrelenting negative economic news of the past two weeks has painted a picture of a United States economy that fell further and recovered less than we had thought.

When what may eventually be known as Great Recession I hit the country, there was general political agreement that it was incumbent on the government to fight back by stimulating the economy. It did, and the recession ended.

But Great Recession II, if that is what we are entering, has provoked a completely different response. Now the politicians are squabbling over how much to cut spending. After months of wrangling, they passed a bill aimed at forcing more reductions in spending over the next decade.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/business/economy/double-dip-recession-may-be-returning.html

[RKP5637]

1. First question that hit my mind is when do two linked recessions = a depression. Not

speaking to the OP here, just commenting. I see a lot of word-smithing about recessions and frankly I think many people would say they've been living in a depression now from day one. Reminds me of my corp. days when we used to word-smith presentations to make the bad news smell like a rose.

[RBInMaine]

2. Not happy? Then stop the endless bitching and work to frame the message and vote out the GOPukes.

[Better Believe It]

9. What anti-Wall Street, anti-corporate candidates should we vote for?

[No Elephants]

27. Like we did in 2006 and 2008?

Apparently, no one is Washington, D.C. is responsible for anything unless we have the WH, the House and about 75 Senators, so we can end a filibuster and maybe change Senate rules, without any of the Blue Dogs or Lieberman, or so we're told.

Oh, AND at least 5 liberals on the SCOTUS.

Never gonna happen. Not even 3 of those 4.

Especially if Dems keep governing like Pub Lite--and maybe not even so Lite, sometimes.

Let's think of another solution, besides blaming those unhappy with an intolerable situation and attempting to bully them into silence.

[Dover]

3. And let's not forget DEflation....weeeeeeee! I love rollercoasters...n/t

[roomfullofmirrors]

4. Hey Wall Street---How's it fucking feel? you won't share the wealth? then you can share the pain.

edited to add: fuck you wall street. I loved today and am looking forward to tomorrow.

[RKP5637]

5. I felt a perverse sense of enjoyment in watching the markets drop today. It's the

only thing that wakes these F'ers up is when they see a hole in their wallet. I realize it hurts a lot of good people too, watching their investment falter. I've been there.

[former9thward]

6. The large investors had no pain today.

They were the ones buying the shares as small investors sold them. They will make super profits when the market goes back up and they know it. At that point small investors will buy back again, buying the shares large investors are selling at the top.

[customerserviceguy]

12. Let's not forget all who sold short

especially as the debt ceiling deal was going down. That's Wall Street, just another fucking casino, without even watered-down drinks to keep you happy.

[roomfullofmirrors]

14. I think its the other way around. The long term 401K/IRA type investors probably held firm

while the speculators and day traders who hunt for short term gains turned everything into cash in a deflationary panic. I can't imagine this will last but, then again, I have been anticipating this event since 2008 when I withdrew from the market.

[Javaman]

7. May? nt

[russspeakeasy]

8. How in hell can we have a "double dip" when the first dip

is still in progress...Did we recover once and I missed it? :wtf: :wtf:

[FogerRox]

21. GDP chart here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1644283

[No Elephants]

26. Recovery=happiness among investors

[OhioChick]

10. I didn't realize that the 1st recession had ended n/t

[ProDem4]

13. Recovery Summer

Last summer was recovery Summer Hello......

[PSPS]

11. Pure GOP propaganda

Here are the giveaways:

United States economy that fell further and recovered less than we had thought.

Then followed by:

there was general political agreement that it was incumbent on the government to fight back by stimulating the economy. It did, and the recession ended.

This is misleading.

1. There was no "political agreement" to stimulate the economy. The GOP didn't want to stimulate the economy at all because it would have boosted the democrat's political currency. Instead, Bush, and then Obama, promoted nothing more than the wholesale shoveling of the US treasury into the pockets of criminals (banksters, wall street, political benefactors, etc.) This helped create a stock market bubble but did nothing to create jobs, improve wages or increase demand.

2. Based on the above, the claim that "it did" and "the recession ended" is laughable. Outside the top 1%, the recession has only worsened.

Now the politicians are squabbling over how much to cut spending. After months of wrangling, they passed a bill aimed at forcing more reductions in spending over the next decade.

This is true, but the piece should go on to point out that "austerity" and "cutting spending" is the exact opposite of what is needed to turn the economy around. Perhaps the piece does, but it's behind a paywall so I don't know, and I doubt it does based on the RW framing in the OP.

[madrchsod]

15. it`s already here.....

[onehandle]

16. No shit. Bush will be with us for a long time. His policies endure. nt

[KeyserSoze87]

17. Okay, if I hear the words "Double dip" one more time, I'm going to scream.

Seriously, outside of corporate profits, the stock market, and the top 1%, this country has never really recovered from the first recession. The "liberal" media is using this term to make it look like Obama screwed up on the economy, therefore allowing a republican to be elected president next year.

[cstanleytech]

23. I agree. The sad thing is there are those

who support him falling for it and now trying to say that we should replace him when the fact is the he cant repair the economy on his own as he isnt a god he is just the president and he can only request that the senate and congress pass a certain law or tax, if they say no then hes out of of luck and the best he can do is try to reach a compromise with them.

[KeyserSoze87]

28. It's not really Obama's fault that the economy has been slowing down in recent months.

In fact, the economy has been starting to tank just months after the Republicans took control of the House and gained seats in the Senate. Coincidence? I think not.

[still_one]

18. Pssst , we never got out of the first one

[Gman]

19. If it's true, the GOP will have succeeded

that's their end game anyway.

[FogerRox]

20. GDP growth chart shows the front end of the second dip.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1644283

[orbitalman]

22. This is bullshit. What? Is this measured only by Wall St?.....

We the people have NEVER gotten OUT of the "recession" so how can it be a double?? Unless you're talking about the "length" of time, then I wouldn't be surprised it would be a triple.:hurts:

[Matilda]

24. Australian market dives to two-year low.

Australian shares have plunged to levels not seen since the global financial crisis, as investors fear that major world economies are headed for another downturn.

The local market mirrored big falls on Wall Street, in Europe and Asia, shedding a massive $50 billion alone today and a staggering $100 billion this week.

Friday's percentage fall was the biggest since November 20, 2008 - at the height of the global financial crisis.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/


From my personal perspective, I was beginning to think in June that perhaps we were turning the corner, but there was a downturn in July, and it hasn't got better. Normally, June here is poor - the end of our financial year - but July should start to move. So far, that definitely hasn't happened, and this news doesn't surprise me at all.

Yet our leaders, and those in the U.S., don't seem to be particularly concerned. Head-in-sand syndrome, I suspect.

[lunatica]

25. Ten Signs The Double-Dip Recession Has Begun

The article has an expanded explanation for each of these issues:

http://247wallst.com/2011/07/29/ten-signs-the-double-di ... /

1. Inflation - materials cost more so products made from them cost more

2. Investments have begun to yield less - Stock market made a comeback but is stumbling in the last quarter.

3. The auto industry - made a good comeback but is falling now (gas prices, Japanese not able to manufacture parts after earthquake

4. Oil prices - over $100 a barrel affect the gas prices

5. The federal budget - there will be no economic stimulus package and GDP growth slows. Austerity measures will make local governments cut 450,000 jobs this year and next.

6. China Economy Slows - the demand for goods and services by its very large and growing middle class drops. Chinese purchaser manufacturing and export numbers have fallen as the central government has tightened the ability to borrow money

7. Unemployment - It's persistent

8. Debt Ceiling - This one is against raising taxes - trickle down crap.

9. Access To Credit - banks aren't lending to small businesses and to people because they don't have the cash reserves that big corporations do. Corporations get very low interest rates while small businesses and people don't.

10. Housing - home values are still dropping so no one is buying

[NickB79]

29. It's 1937 all over again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1937%E2%80%931938

Thank you GOP and your austerity measures.

[Igel]

30. In 1937 the response was to reduced spending.

We don't have reduced spending yet. We have proposals to reduce spending in the future. The budget cuts in the previous years have been a few billion dollars, while spending's increased by about $800 billion per year since 2009.

The best you can get is that the stimulus has mostly been spent. But if the heart and soul of the Keynesian approach to stimulating the economy is deficit spending, then there's the 1.3, 1.2, 1.5 trillion dollar deficits in 2009, 2010, and 2011. The deficit in 2012 was projected to be $1.6, before the proposed spending cuts and the reduced projections for economic growth. The deficit *after* the proposed cuts will still make FDR's "stimulus" look puny.

And let's not forget the deficit in 2008, largely the result of a stimulus in response to the recession that started in 2007. Presumably that stimulus should have been bigger. But Reid, Pelosi, and Obama ran against the deficit, and all opposed having a larger stimulus in early 2008 because the size of the deficit, they said, would harm the economy more than the deficit would help it. The stimulus size and the corresponding increase in the debt ceiling were contingent on keeping the deficit to a manageable size.