STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, August 3, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, August 3, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 2, 2011

Dow 11,866.62 -265.87 (-2.24%)
Nasdaq 2,669.24 -75.37 (-2.82%)
S&P 500 1,254.05 -32.89 (-2.62%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.64 +0.03 (+1.26%)
30-Year Bond 3.93 +0.02 (+0.59%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 12

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Aug 03 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 07/30 NA NA -5%
Aug 03 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Jul NA NA 5.2%
Aug 03 08:15 ADP Employment Change Jul 100K 100K 157K
Aug 03 10:00 Factory Orders Jun -1.0% -1.0% 0.8%
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul 52.0 53.7 53.3
Aug 03 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/30 NA NA 2.296M

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/08/01-05/#ixzz1Txk0iTPi

[Pale Blue Dot]

24. Job growth stalls, layoffs surge

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The jobs recovery slowed for a third month in a row, according to two reports out Wednesday.

Private sector employers added 114,000 workers in July, far lower than the 145,000 jobs added in June, according to a report by payroll processing firm ADP.

While that number beat economists' forecasts for 100,000 additional jobs, it is also taken with a grain of salt by some economists, since ADP's figures have differed wildly from government data this year.

Meanwhile, a separate report showed more firms are opting to downsize, rather than add to their payrolls.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/03/news/economy/jobs_challenger_adp/

More horrible, but unsurprising, news.

[roomfullofmirrors]

66. I took my physical for my new job today.

I have been working temporary jobs and no jobs for over a year now and trying to find something better for just as long. I was NEVER included in any unemployment/underemployment statistics either btw but I'm guessing I will be included in August's employment numbers which leads me to believe that the official 9.2% unemployment rate is officially bullshit.

[AnneD]

72. The unemployment is Irish...

Try Dublin the official rate at a minimum. :hide:

[Po_d Mainiac]

75. Look for the U-6 numbers n/t

[xchrom]

2. morning!!!

:donut:

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. Oil near $93 as weak US economy drags markets down

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell to near $93 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as investor pessimism about U.S. economic growth dragged down global markets.

Benchmark oil for September delivery was down 57 cents to $93.24 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude lost $1.10 to settle at $93.79 on Tuesday.

In London, Brent crude was down 69 cents at $115.79 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil prices have dropped from near $100 two weeks ago as signs of weak U.S. economic growth batter investor confidence.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[jpak]

42. This is good for US consumers - I hope it goes to $60

yup

[Pale Blue Dot]

4. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Climb; Benchmark S&P 500 May Snap Seven-Day Slide

U.S. stock-index futures rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index poised to rebound from its lowest level since December, as investors speculated that the seven-day slump isn’t commensurate with earnings forecasts.

Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (HTZ) may climb as the rental-car company reported second-quarter earnings that topped analysts’ estimates. CBS Corp. may gain as the owner of the most-watched U.S. television network said second-quarter profit soared, beating analysts’ forecasts.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in September rose 0.6 percent to 1,255.2 at 11:28 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures expiring the same month advanced 56 points, or 0.5 percent, to 11,860.

“A recession will be avoided,” said Kully Samra, who manages U.K.-based clients for Charles Schwab Corp., which has $1.5 trillion in client assets. “Earnings seem to be coming in OK and they’re still growing. The micro picture isn’t that bad.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/u-s-stock-index-futures-climb-benchmark-s-p-500-may-snap-seven-day-slide.html

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

84. Nerp.

[xchrom]

5. europe: European Services, Manufacturing Growth Slows

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/euro-region-s-services-manufacturing-expansion-slowed-in-july.html

European services and manufacturing growth weakened in July to the slowest pace in almost two years, adding to signs the euro region’s recovery is losing momentum.

A composite index based on a survey of euro-area purchasing managers in both industries fell to 51.1 in July from 53.3 in June, London-based Markit Economics said today. That’s the lowest since September 2009, though it exceeds an initial estimate of 50.8. A reading above 50 indicates growth.

Europe’s export-led recovery is faltering as leaders struggle to contain the region’s worsening debt crisis as global demand weakens. U.K., Australian and Russian manufacturing contracted last month, while China’s output growth slowed. The European Central Bank tomorrow may keep borrowing costs on hold after increasing them for a second time this year in July.

“The most recent indicators point to stagnation in economic growth,” said Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro NV in Amsterdam. “There’s every chance that the debt crisis is going to escalate again and that creates uncertainty. It’s now entering the consciousness of businesses and their decisions. That’s another negative.”

[xchrom]

8. Worst Currency to Tumble as Turkey’s Pain Threshold Tested

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/worst-currency-may-tumble-as-lira-traders-test-turkey-s-pain-threshold-.html

Turkey’s lira, this year’s worst- performing currency, may tumble as a record current-account deficit and rising inflation undermine the central bank’s week- long attempt to stem the decline, options prices show.

Central bank chief Erdem Basci, who had encouraged a weaker lira to reduce the current-account deficit, resisted further depreciation last week as the lira sank to a two-year-low of 1.73 by suspending dollar-purchase auctions and returning $590 million to banks through reduced reserve requirements.

“Investors will probably try to take the lira back to previous lows,” Luis Costa, an emerging-markets strategist at Citigroup Inc. in London, said in a phone interview. “The central bank will definitely be tempted to intervene verbally or de-facto again. The question is: What is the central bank’s pain threshold?”

There’s an 86 percent chance that the lira will hit 1.75 per dollar by year-end, according to implied probability calculated from currency options contracts. Traders are paying a premium of 3.4 percentage points more for one-month contracts granting the right to sell the lira than to buy the currency, compared with 2.3 percentage points a month ago, according to so-called risk-reversal rates compiled by Bloomberg.

[xchrom]

6. Billionaires’ Wine Thirst Quelled by Record Bordeaux Futures, Sale Prices

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/billionaires-wine-thirst-quelled-by-record-bordeaux-futures-sale-prices.html

Surging demand for Chateau Lafite and other French trophy labels, especially from Asia, has pushed both prices at auction and wine futures to records. Not all wine dealers are happy.

The prices for some of the most expensive bottles are starting to discourage even billionaire collectors, said dealers -- some of whom had warned in January of a bubble that could burst in 2011. Chinese and other buyers balked as some Bordeaux producers raised prices as much as 80 percent last month for the new vintage offered “en primeur,” when it is still in barrels.

“En primeur sales have halved,” Simon Staples, fine wine and marketing director of the London-based merchants Berry Bros & Rudd, said in an interview. “It’s a combination of high prices and the fact that the chateaux released less than last year.”

Sales growth is also slowing at auctions. Takings at the biggest three wine auction houses in the first six months of 2011 were up by 46 percent on the same period in 2010, according to Bloomberg calculations, down from the 88 percent sales increase in 2010.

[xchrom]

7. Emerging Stocks Drop to Six-Week Low, Currencies Weaken on U.S. Concerns

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/emerging-stocks-drop-to-six-week-low-currencies-weaken-on-u-s-concerns.html

Emerging-market stocks fell to a six- week low, led by exporters after an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer spending raised concern over growth in the world’s largest economy .

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index sank 1.5 percent to 1,110 at 11:24 a.m. in London, set for the lowest close since June 23. South Korea’s Kospi Index (KOSPI) slumped 2.6 percent, completing the largest two-day plunge since November 2009. Benchmark indexes fell more than 1 percent in Russia and Taiwan.

U.S. data today will probably show factory orders orders shrank, while employers added fewer workers in July, following a report yesterday that showed personal spending dropped for the first time in almost two years. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was due to give a national televised address to reassure the nation after bond yields hit records in Italy and Spain on concerns they will struggle to pay their debts.

“The U.S. debt ceiling resolution did not turn around sentiment and investors’ worries turned to the sluggish outlook for the global growth and the renewed worries about Europe’s debt,” analysts at BNP Paribas SA including Bartosz Pawlowski in London wrote in an e-mailed report. “The market is unlikely to take the European debt crisis off the hook just yet.”

[mrdmk]

9. K & R, for a picture worth a thousand words from another thread

The Detroit Public Schools book depository, built in the 1930s and designed by famed architect Albert Kahn, now stands abandoned, its floor covered in rotting textbooks. Thomas Hawk/Flickr

link provided by bluebear: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1650967

(The comments are worth a read also...)

[DemReadingDU]

22. that is sad

We love books in this house. My adult childen and their children have lots of books.
How could anyone let books rot. Deplorable.

[burf]

23. Interesting photo

It says a lot that a beautiful old building constructed during the last depression is falling apart during the present calamity.

[mrdmk]

77. Worst than that, being let go to waste on purpose n/t

:grr:

[Demeter]

49. Detroit: A New American Frontier

http://www.truth-out.org/detroit-new-american-frontier/1311694023

In Detroit, even the dead are sprawling, as families disinter bodies from urban cemeteries to rebury them in the suburbs. Is there any greater sign of both the physical and psychological abandonment of the city?

LOCATING AND VISITING ANCESTRAL GRAVESITES IS ON MY LIST OF THINGS TO DO...BUT FIRST I HAVE TO GET RID OF AT LEAST ONE DAILY TASK...I'M HOPING THE CO-OP BOARD ENDS WITH THE CO-OP IN OCTOBER AND THE WOOD FLOOR PROJECT AND THE GARAGE CLEANUP...THAT WOULD MEAN SPRING. NO WAY WOULD I WANT TO DISINTER THEM...I'D HAVE NO PLACE TO REBURY!

...Often they've fetishized the decline, photographing yet again, for example, the Michigan Central Depot in its decayed glory, notwithstanding the reality that it is owned by a billionaire who has simply elected not to fix it up. But a message is getting out nevertheless, that there is free and open space available in Detroit—and that message is attracting people, many of them uncommonly creative and entrepreneurial.

[Pale Blue Dot]

10. Moody’s Affirms U.S. Rating, Warns of Downgrades

Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings affirmed their AAA credit ratings for the U.S. while warning that downgrades were possible if lawmakers fail to enact debt reduction measures and the economy weakens.

The outlook for the U.S. grade is now negative, Moody’s said in a statement yesterday after President Barack Obama signed into law a plan to lift the nation’s borrowing limit and cut spending following months of wrangling between Democratic leaders and Republican lawmakers.

The compromise “is a positive step toward reducing the future path of the deficit and the debt levels,” Steven Hess, senior credit officer at Moody’s in New York, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We do think more needs to be done to ensure a reduction in the debt to GDP ratio, for example, going forward.”

JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated that a downgrade would raise U.S. borrowing costs by $100 billion a year, while Obama said it could hurt the broader economy by increasing consumer borrowing costs tied to Treasury rates. The ratio of general government debt, including state and local governments, to gross domestic product is projected to climb to 100 percent in 2012, the most of any AAA-ranked country, Fitch said in April.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/u-s-aaa-rating-faces-moody-s-downgrade-on-debt-economic-slowdown-concern.html

[Demeter]

30. I think these "Agencies" Have Outlived Their Usefulness

and ought to be scrapped.

[plumbob]

32. May I rephrase? Rather than say "would raise US borrowing costs

by $100 billion a year", say "would line the pockets of lenders with an additional unearned $100 billion per year just the way we used ratings to fuck people in the mortgage mess."

I believe that's much more accurate.

[Tansy_Gold]

36. You're just being negative because you didn't get a pony

But you're also absolutely $100 billion percent correct.




TG, the thoroughly and totally disgusted

[plumbob]

38. I didn't even get some pony poop. :)

BUT I did get to see the ponies the bankers got!


Thanks for the support, Tansy,

[Demeter]

39. I'm not sure pony poop is the consolation prize

Still, properly handled, it can be a resource...

[Fuddnik]

46. I have lots of dog poop, if that will help.

[Demeter]

48. And I Can Throw In Some Satuated Cat Litter!

It's called "sharing the wealth"

[Fuddnik]

50. Friday will be Rosco's first birthday.

[Demeter]

52. Happy Birthday, Puppy!

Shall we have a Weekend of going to the dogs, in his honor?

[Demeter]

69. The Kid Says: Happy Birthday, Roscoe!

I've promised her a dog, IF I ever get the floors laid...

[Po_d Mainiac]

67. An advantage of being a woodworker

The cat squirts/craps into a litter box filled with sawdust....goes straight to the compost heap.

We get a slight return on the 'investment' in feline food.

[DemReadingDU]

40. here is another rephrase

rather than saying we raised the debt ceiling, we deepened the debt pit by $2.4 trillion
:(

[AnneD]

73. So when did you get a job....

As GOP copy editor?????? :spray: :rofl:

[Pale Blue Dot]

11. China Joins Russia in Blasting U.S. Borrowing

China, the largest foreign investor in U.S. government securities, joined Russia in criticizing American policy makers for failing to ensure borrowing is reined in after a stopgap deal to raise the nation’s debt limit.

People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China’s central bank will monitor U.S. efforts to tackle its debt, and state-run Xinhua News Agency blasted what it called the “madcap” brinksmanship of American lawmakers. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said two days ago that the U.S. is in a way “leeching on the world economy.”

The comments reflect concern that the U.S. may lose its AAA sovereign rating after President Barack Obama and Congress put off decisions on spending cuts and tax increases to assure enactment of a boost in borrowing authority. China and Russia, holding a total $1.28 trillion of Treasuries, have lost nothing so far in the wake of a rally in the securities this year.

“It’s probably frustration more than anything else for China,” said Brian Jackson, a senior strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. While the nation has concerns, “they realize there’s not a lot of options for them out there and so they need to keep buying Treasuries.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/china-s-zhou-to-monitor-u-s-debt-as-xinhua-sees-bomb-yet-to-be-defused.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

12. Odds of U.S. Recession Seen Rising

The two-year-old U.S. recovery’s staying power may be diminishing as consumers and the government pare spending, say five of the nine economists on the academic panel that dates recessions.

“This economy is really balanced on the edge,” Harvard University economics professor Martin Feldstein, a member of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene. “There’s now a 50 percent chance that we could slide into a new recession. Nothing has given us much growth.”

A greater-than-expected slowdown in the first half of 2011 poses risks for the world’s largest economy, said economist Robert Hall of Stanford University, the panel’s chairman. Gross domestic product climbed at a 1.3 percent annual rate from April through June after a 0.4 percent gain in the prior quarter that was less than earlier estimated, Commerce Department figures showed July 29.

“The slower the growth rate, the more likely it is that an adverse shock would cause a recession,” Hall said in an interview.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/feldstein-recession-panel-members-see-rising-odds-of-a-renewed-u-s-slump.html

[Fuddnik]

13. Gee. When do you think they'll break the news to us?

It reminds me of Dylan's "Subterranean Homesick Blues". You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

You don't need an economist to tell you you're in a recession either.


Besides, I think they would have already told us, but they all got laid off too.

[DemReadingDU]

20. I don't think we ever got out of the recession

It's bad out there. By the time they tell us it's another recession, it will be a depression.
:(

[Tansy_Gold]

37. Only the honest ones got laid off

The ones still "warning" of a "possible" double dip and telling us we're in a "recovery" still have jobs.


:grr:



TG

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[xchrom]

14. Birinyi Advises Holding Stocks After S&P 500 Drop

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/birinyi-advises-holding-stocks-with-scotch-after-s-p-500-erases-2011-gains.html

The seven-day slide that wiped out the 2011 gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is no reason to sell stocks, said Laszlo Birinyi, one of the first investors to recommend buying when the bull market began in 2009.

Growing concern that the U.S. economy is faltering has erased $1.07 trillion from American equities in less than two weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 plunged 2.6 percent yesterday, posting its biggest one-day loss in a year and giving the index the longest losing streak since October 2008, the depths of the financial crisis caused by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy.

The drop surprised Birinyi, whose Westport, Connecticut- based research firm Birinyi Associates Inc. sees the bull market in U.S. equities lasting until 2013, based upon the length of prior advances. Investors who sell after the S&P 500’s 6.8 percent loss since July 22 will miss out, he said in a telephone interview yesterday. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.7 percent at 6:42 a.m. in New York today.

“It’s like all these times when you second-guess yourself, and you probably wake up a little earlier than you’re used to, and maybe you put an extra finger of scotch in the glass,” said Birinyi, 67. “It’s probably a good idea to have a gut check once in a while, because it makes you review and rethink your process. Our view is that this is still a market of some duration.”

[Demeter]

56. The time to sell is long gone

It's now time to pray.

And snap up bargains,,,but you have to know what you are doing...haven't hit bottom yet.

I declare the Great Correction open!

[xchrom]

15. China Joins Russia in Blasting U.S. Borrowing

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/china-s-zhou-to-monitor-u-s-debt-as-xinhua-sees-bomb-yet-to-be-defused.html

China, the largest foreign investor in U.S. government securities, joined Russia in criticizing American policy makers for failing to ensure borrowing is reined in after a stopgap deal to raise the nation’s debt limit.

People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China’s central bank will monitor U.S. efforts to tackle its debt, and state-run Xinhua News Agency blasted what it called the “madcap” brinksmanship of American lawmakers. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said two days ago that the U.S. is in a way “leeching on the world economy.”

The comments reflect concern that the U.S. may lose its AAA sovereign rating after President Barack Obama and Congress put off decisions on spending cuts and tax increases to assure enactment of a boost in borrowing authority. China and Russia, holding a total $1.28 trillion of Treasuries, have lost nothing so far in the wake of a rally in the securities this year.

“It’s probably frustration more than anything else for China,” said Brian Jackson, a senior strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. While the nation has concerns, “they realize there’s not a lot of options for them out there and so they need to keep buying Treasuries.”

[xchrom]

16. Our Sputtering Economy by the Numbers

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/business/2011/08/our-sputtering-economy-numbers/40744/

With increasing signs that the economy is laboring, most economists agree that a short-term infusion of spending, or an extension of this year's temporary cut in Social Security taxes, could help fend off a new downturn.

But whatever one thinks of the debt deal—and most of its billions in cuts won't come for a few years—there's a near-consensus in Washington against spending increases.

Here's a brief overview of some key stats on where the economy stands.

* Annual rate at which the GDP grew this year: 1.3 percent between April and June, 0.4 percent between January and March
* Average annual GDP growth from 1998-2007: 3.02 percent
* Total jobs lost since January 2008: 8.7 million
* Total jobs recovered since January 2008: 1.8 million

[burf]

28. They could have included

that there are now 45,753,078 people on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (food stamps). If not for SNAP, think of the crowd size at soup kitchens.

[xchrom]

34. +1

[xchrom]

17. Geithner: Tax hikes back on table

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/geithner-tax-hikes-back-on-table-2011-08-02

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said in an editorial that lawmakers may look at ways to raise revenue in the wake of a debt-cutting deal that focuses solely on trimming spending.

In his commentary for the Wednesday edition of the Washington Post, Geithner said that the Republican leadership is still open to considering new revenue streams.

“Leading Republicans have begun talking about tax reforms that will raise revenue and help reduce the deficit. Democrats recognize that we have to find savings to preserve programs for the elderly, the middle class and the poor, and to create room to help rebuild the economy,” he said, according to an advance copy of the editorial provided by the Treasury Department.

While staunch opposition from fiscally conservative Republicans kept any tax hikes out of the debt deal signed into law Tuesday, Geithner appeared to signal that the expiration of the Bush tax cuts at the end of 2012 could be used as leverage to force reforms to revenue.

[AnneD]

25. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. I have had computer issues for over a week but am doing better now.

Funny thing now.....they will have to tax the lower upper class or the neveaux rich now that the middle class and the middle class are tapped out. Of course they will try to raise the social security tax to 'keep it alive' first. BUT EXCUSE THE FUCK OUT OF ME! WE DID THIS ONCE BEFORE. We boomers fell for that and have been paying extra since St. Ronnie. The politicians then said it would pay for the boomers then. Congress turned around and funded wars and gave tax breaks to their friends. Now the system is broke.....I call bull shit. And you think you can cheat us and our kids out of more money. Well f$&k you and the horse you road in on...

This is class war and if you are not in the 1% you don't count.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[xchrom]

26. +1

[bread_and_roses]

29. "tomorrow...tomorrow...."

I think the tune running through my head is from "Annie" but we could also go to Scarlett: "tomorrow is another day!"

Sure, Timmeh - why wouldn't we believe you? I'm sure we'll be hearing lots more soon about all the wonderful things that will happen with "four more years."

[AnneD]

71. I may not be able to tell the breed.....

But I know bull shit when I see/smell it.

The debt is so great that there is not enough money under the sofa cushion (middle class). The government will have to start hitting the jewelry box (upper middle lower wealthy class). They won't attack the mid and upper wealthy until they see the light from our torches glistening off our pitchforks. Start looking for FRSP.

[xchrom]

18. south asia: Shares hit 6-week low on global economic concerns

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/market-news/shares-hit-6-week-low-on-global-economic-concerns/articleshow/9469016.cms

MUMBAI: Indian markets ended in deep red for second consecutive session as global investors remained bearish on fears of economic recession after the US signed the debt deal. Capital goods, auto and pharmaceutical stocks were the worst sectoral performers while metals and FMCG space showed some resistance.

Worries over a prolonged global economic slowdown sent shares to their lowest close in nearly six weeks on Wednesday, as a last-minute budget deal by Washington to avoid a US default turned investor focus to its impact on growth.

The United States stepped back from the brink of default on Tuesday but congressional approval of a deficit-cutting plan failed to dispel fears of a credit downgrade and future tax and spending feuds.

Macro economic factors like high inflation and interest rates have been hampering growth back home. According to a Morgan Stanley report, India's GDP growth may slip to 7.2 per cent from 7.7 per cent against government's forecast of 8.2 per cent the current fiscal. Analysts are of the view that the market is likely to remain range-bound and may drift lower in the medium term.

[bread_and_roses]

19. "Gollum and Smeagol on the debt deal..."

Some funny comments after too (body of post is very brief)

http://crookedtimber.org/2011/08/01/debt-default-dialog-lotr-style/

G: We told you he would hurt us and lie to us! All nasty cuts and no nice revenue. Wicked, tricksy, false!
S: Master is our friend! He has tricked the hobbitses, the cuts are mostly in defense. No more bright sharp swords for the dark Pentagon...

[xchrom]

21. OMG that is good. Nt

[Fuddnik]

27. That belongs in GD.

Or GD- Jonestown. Nothing like a food fight for breakfast.

[Demeter]

35. Thanks, B&R

Ties in with my choice of Obama as Peter Pettigrew....the false friend who betrayed Harry Potter's parents, who turns into a rat at will, and ends up strangling himself with the silver hand given to him to replace the one he cut off himself voluntarily to resurrect Voldemort....when Harry Potter calls in his life debt.

[MadinMo]

63. Love it.

Wish there was a "like" button for your post.

[Demeter]

33. With this Monstrous, Global Betrayal of 99% of the World

It's hard to believe that any other "news" has any significance.

I survived the un-air-conditioned primary. We had 86 voters show up.

And it rained a little. The crab grass is green. Can't say the regular grass has recovered, yet.

And all the incumbents re selected...but 2 of the three were very close.

Found out about this online, government-specializing local news source. The founder came by our precinct to observe for a bit. I picked her brains unmercifullly...

She was from the AANews, created this subscription news service that provides more information on local government, even to the extent of the Board of Regents at the University! than anyone ever did.

It's very strange, living in a town without a newspaper. This may be the way of the future.

http://annarborchronicle.com/

[Demeter]

41. Four Ways the Debt-Ceiling Deal Will Affect You Personally

http://www.truth-out.org/four-ways-debt-ceiling-deal-will-affect-you-personally/1312291478

If you're in the top 1% of earners, there's no need to read any further because it probably won't affect you personally. Here are five ways it's likely to affect the rest of us:

1. You'll be less likely to find a job if you're looking. If you've got a job, you're less likely to earn more money - and more likely to lose it...if you're one of the 22 to 24 million people in the country who are un- or under-employed, this deal is bad news. And if you're one of the tens of millions of people with stagnant income, it will hurt you too...By all means, please keep looking for a job and try not to surrender to despair. But this bill is a step backward for you. I know it's going to be tough, and I feel for you. But hang in there and don't give up. Join us in pressuring Washington to address unemployment. That will give you added purpose - and we sure could use the help.

2. Your housing value is likely to suffer...The bipartisan coalition that bailed out Wall Street has agreed to exclude any help for suffering homeowners in their "grand bargain." That means that a wave of foreclosures will continue unabated, driving down housing value, ruining millions of households, and depressing the local economy in tens of thousands of cities, towns, and neighborhoods. The tax provisions we'll describe in a minute are likely to make that problem even worse.

3. Your old age just got scarier...A "chained-CPI" benefit cut will reduce Social Security by nearly ten percent by the time you're 80 -- and that's if you retire right away. If you're young the cuts will be even greater. Raising the retirement age is a huge benefit cut, too....That's likely to mean an old age with more financial insecurity - unless this deal can be stopped, or the "Super Congress" is staffed with Democrats who believe in the higher good and not a deal for expediency's sake. Again, don't despair. Join us in fighting to protect entitlement programs - or in electing politicians who will.

4. Your tax bill is likely to go way up.... it's too direct and honest to simply say "eliminate tax deductions." They'd rather say that the Super Congress will "review tax expenditures." Two of the biggest are the home mortgage interest deduction and the tax deduction for employer-sponsored health care...Education will be cut under this plan, which means your children will get less of an education and will have less money for college, closing one more avenue to a better life.



Is this a done deal? SEE LINK

[Demeter]

43. Thom Hartmann here – on the news…

http://www.truth-out.org/news-thom-hartmann/1312296063

You need to know this. The right-wingers are gloating. After the Republican-written debt-limit deal passed the House of Representatives yesterday with half of the Democratic caucus giving in – Republicans are soaking in their victory. The deal still has one final hurdle in the Senate with a vote set for noon today – but in an interview with CBS News – Speaker of the House John Boehner bragged that he got 98% of what he wanted in the debt-limit deal. And Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told Fox so-called News that since the hostage taking worked – they’d be trying it again soon. McConnell said about the debate, “It set the template for the future… we’ll be doing it all over .” So here we had a clean debt-limit hike offered by Republicans a few weeks back and shot down by the President – and then a debt-limit hike that included 15% revenue raisers shot down by the President – so one has to wonder if this REALLY was the best deal Democrats could have gotten? Not only that – Vice President Joe Biden admitted yesterday that the President was willing to use the 14th Amendment to raise the debt-limit himself if all else failed. If that’s true – then why did Democrats have to eat the “Satan sandwich” and pass this deal that will kneecap our crippled economy, thus giving Republicans a huge election issue heading into 2012?


VIDEO AND TRANSCRIPT AT LINK

[Demeter]

44. What Were They Thinking? Elizabeth Drew

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/aug/18/what-were-they-thinking/?pagination=false&printpage=true

IF YOU ARE SURE YOU WANT TO KNOW, CLICK ON THE LINK....

[Demeter]

45. When the Debt Ceiling Dust Settles: Greece Will Look Like a Good Place to Live

TOO HOT FOR ME, BUT I'VE BEEN CONSIDERING ICELAND, SINCE I'VE ONE NORSE LANGUAGE UNDER MY BELT ALREADY...THE POINT IS, IF ONE GOES WHERE THE PIRATE TROOPS HAVE BEEN ALREADY, THE POPULACE AND ECONOMY MIGHT BE FINALLY ABLE TO RECOVER...STAYING ON THE BATTLEFIELD IS GALLANT, BUT IS IT SMART?

http://blog.buzzflash.com/node/12895

[Fuddnik]

55. That pretty much nails it.

[Demeter]

58. A Prognosis for Greece by: Paul Krugman

http://www.truth-out.org/prognosis-greece/1311701307

Someday, one way or another, Greece will exit from its current state of indentured servitude. But what will it do for a living? I often hear assertions that the answer is “nothing.”

“What can the Greeks export?” the critics ask.

In general, my response to such claims is that those commentators suffer from the fallacy of misplaced concreteness: An economy, even that of a small nation, is a very complex thing, with more possibilities than a casual top-down overview can reveal...


I’ve been complaining for a while about the Hellenization of economic discourse — the way everyone is being treated as being just like Greece, when in fact Greece (with a long history of fiscal irresponsibility, very high public debt, and without its own currency) doesn’t bear much resemblance even to the other peripheral European nations, let alone the United States.

Yet Mitch McConnell, the senator from Kentucky, declared recently at a press briefing that, “We look a lot like Greece already.”

Yep, aside from the fact that everything is different....

****************************************************************************************

Paul Krugman joined The New York Times in 1999 as a columnist on the Op-Ed page and continues as a professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University. He was awarded the Nobel in economic science in 2008.

Mr Krugman is the author or editor of 20 books and more than 200 papers in professional journals and edited volumes, including "The Return of Depression Economics" (2008) and "The Conscience of a Liberal" (2007).

[DemReadingDU]

86. that sums it up, n/t

[Demeter]

47. Forget Compromise: The Debt Ceiling Is Unconstitutional by: Ellen Brown

http://www.truth-out.org/forget-compromise-debt-ceiling-unconstitutional/1312205856

[mnhtnbb]

51. 8 straight days down--if we go 9, that hasn't happened since the 70's.

Not since February 1978 per the talking heads on CNBC

[Fuddnik]

57. Dow down 140 pts already. S&P down 16.5.

It ain't looking good.

[Demeter]

59. Nine Months, You Say?

That would be a short Depression, indeed. At this rate, we'd be lucky if it turns out to be only 9 years.

[mnhtnbb]

62. No, 9 days of Dow down--go back to 1978--when gold was making new highs

which it is doing now--and what happened? Reagan Recession.

I definitely think we're in for a double dip recession. How long? Who knows?

[Demeter]

64. Dear Friend

Nine days is wildly optimistic. This collapse has been building for a decade, if not longer. Since 1987, certainly. 1987 didn't do more than set some people back a bit. It didn't bring about structural corrections in the regulation of this economy...except to pull more of the laws that propped it up out from under us.

That Reagan madness hasn't abated in the slightest. Not yet. And it seems that the quacks in office have decided to let the fever run its course, instead of even sparing a pallative aspirin or two...

[Po_d Mainiac]

68. Got Gold?

Central banks are ramping up their gold buying as they seek to diversify their reserves away from the dollar and other beleaguered currencies.

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113243/central-banks-join-rush-gold-wsj?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

[AnneD]

76. I remember when the...

TEachers Rerirement System bought and took physical control of gold bullion months back. Everyone was knocking them but I was telling everyone on the thread that I was feeling better about my retirement pension. Everyone in the financial community was riding them then but who is having the last laugh now. The fund manager made a big bonus last year and as a teacher I was upset, but now I am thinking it was a bonus deserved.

Every extra amount I save is in gold and silver now. I cannot make that much in interest on anything.

[Po_d Mainiac]

83. She's holding long and hard...smart lady

:hide:

[AnneD]

93. Don't tempt me to say something....

I have to a repeat in confession. :evilgrin: . But then again.....

I expect Fudd to egg me on but you Pod, I might be easy but I am not THAT easy.

Better to be long and hard than naked and short....:spray:

[mnhtnbb]

92. Hubby has been a gold bug since...forever.

[Demeter]

90. Never fear. The PPT Saved Us from 9 days of Down

This is to prevent the numerically superstitious from taking fits...

[TalkingDog]

53. Finally... I Understand the Stock Market.

And no, this is not some sarcastic screed on the “Wall Street Casino”. I finally found somebody who could explain the mysterious vagaries of the waxing and waning of the market terms that even an artist can understand. Probably because there are lots of pictures. And because the meat of the “book” is only about 50 pages long… in large type.

It’s more of a detailed pamphlet really.

The author, Daniel Arnold, is just a smart guy who wanted to know how to make his money work for him after he retired. He was an electrical and bio-mechanical engineer who had worked for GE for a number of years. He was good at understanding process and the importance of how the pieces fit together. So, with some time on his hands, he started looking at basic, publicly available economic information and began utilizing the data in a way that developed into a very interesting theory.

He started from the assumption that you always hear brokers and stock houses hammering home to investors. One shouldn’t look at how a stock does over a short period of time. Instead, they should look at the long range performance. But the people he listened to or read weren’t talking about long range trends. They were all focused on short term trends and short term results.

When one looks at long term economic flux, there are a lot of theories to choose from. One of my favorites is a long-range theory from a Russian economist named Nikolai Kondratiev. He was tasked with “proving” capitalism could not last because it was a flawed system. What he found instead was that the economies of capitalist countries waxed and waned; although he did not or could not offer a suitable explanation as to why this occurred.

These findings were seen as having the potential to undermine Stalin’s plans for the Soviet Union, so he was sent to the Gulag and sentenced to death. But, his findings align with Arnold’s findings quite nicely. But, Arnold’s prime cause for the fluctuations are a far simpler, more elegant and intuitive explanation than the ones offered by economists trying to find an explanation for the Kondratiev “Wave”.

Any artist or scientist or mathematician will tell you that there in a beauty, a “rightness” to certain solutions. The pieces all fit; like a puzzle. As I read this pamphlet, I kept having those “Ah, that makes sense.” moments that never came while I was studying other economic theories.

So I’ll give you the most basic and important part of his theory here and if you want to read more you can go to his website: The Great Bust Ahead

Let me say first though, as an artist, I will tell you now, the site screams “SCAM”, and if I had seen the site first it would have been easy for me to dismiss the pamphlet as sleazy profiteering. But I’ll give him a pass. He’s an engineer and may not realize how visual cues lead people to certain unconscious conclusions.

The data he presents is easily accessed through public files at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CIA fact files and the INS. So if you have doubt, get the information and crunch the numbers yourself.

Finally down to the nub of it.
In a nutshell:

* The GDP (gross domestic product) is, in the simplest definition, You and I spending money.

Here he uses Fully Industrialized Democratic Nations (FIDN) as the basis of this data point. The more people, the more they spend, the higher the GDP. And it holds true.

* If there is a group within the given population of a country that spends more money, they are the main driver of a “good” economy.

* The age group comprising the biggest spenders in these FIDN is the 45 to 54 year olds.

Why? We are at our peak earning power at this age. We buy cars, we buy houses, we have kids with the attendant school, medical, college expenses. So we are also at the years of our peak expenditures.

* The strength of the economy rises and falls as generational cohorts come into or move out of this peak earning/expenditure age.

He takes birth data and census data back to the 1920′s and follows the 45-54 year old cohort, correlating it with the rise and fall of the stock market. He has to make adjustments for inflation, but there is an incredibly tight correlation between the peak earning 45-54 demographic and stock market performance.

Until the 1960′s. It took him a while to suss out why the shift occurred. It was the Pill. It allowed women to forestall childbearing. And keeping it basic here, we won’t go into the economic ramifications. Suffice it to say that he adjusted for the data and the correlation resumed its lockstep behavior.

He found he also had to adjust for immigration. He notes that the average age of immigrants to this country is 30 years of age. And once they are assimilated, earning money, making families, they contribute to the upward trend of the stock market in the same way as a birth cohort.

This chart shows the correlations, but there seems to be some divergence in the data. My guess is that if he could find a way to account for illegal immigrants, who contribute to the economy as much as any other worker, it would, once again fall back into alignment.



I’d like you to notice that after 2010 there is a precipitous drop in the number of people in the 45-54 year old cohort. The Baby Boomers are busting. They are no longer at peak earning power, the kids have gone to college (and come home) and there is a gap of quite a few years until another peak earning demographic comes into prominence.

So, what does that mean? Well, if the trend holds, it means a precipitous drop in the market. It means a long depression. It means a very long, very tough road for people over 50.

So, now that you understand how the stock market works, you can see that we have been trying to put the cart before the horse. Jobs and wages create disposable income. Disposable income creates a thriving economy. And that is simply all there is to it.

No magic. No fractal Elliot Waves. No Wall Street Wizards or brokers who can earn you lots of cash. If you want to get rich in the stock market, make sure people have jobs and money to spend. Then when a generational cohort hits age 40, get in the market. When they hit 50+, get out.

Simple.

[Demeter]

60. And this is where the Government Screws Us

Instead of providing for the common welfare by smoothing out the variations...

Instead of enforcing the freedoms that allow people to choose their life courses...

The government works to destroy the economy and enslave women into childbearing in poverty, producing damaged children.

[Hawkowl]

74. Thank you!

Very nice summation.

[truthisfreedom]

95. I bought the book years ago and agree with Dan completely. I even had a chance to email him for a

bit of advice, sold all of my properties as a result, got into renting and saved myself (and my business) a total of $10K a month. The dude is a prophet and it will take years before people realize that the answer was in a pamphlet-sized book you could buy for under $10 on a badly-designed website.

[Demeter]

54. Down 145 pts at 10:40

Geez, guys, save something for after lunch!


10:56 PPT to the rescue...I doubt that the bargain hunters are out, not in that quantity.

[Pale Blue Dot]

65. Talk about PPT!

Wow - it just suddenly shot up for no reason that I can find.

[Po_d Mainiac]

70. crude inventories

.96M actual vs 2.29M forecast

Once again, the anul-ists registered a solid miss...Who wooda thunked it?

[Demeter]

61. Why the GOP Aims to Sink the Economy

http://www.truth-out.org/why-gop-aims-sink-economy/1311875512

VERY LONG SCREED...ENDS WITH:

Maybe the Republicans' "Titanic Politics" isn't about steering the ship of state into an economic iceberg, in hopes of taking over when the captain goes down with the ship. Maybe it's not that they've forgotten they're on the boat, too. Maybe they know they're never really going to take the helm any other way, and are willing to send it to ocean floor if they don't. Either way, they'll go down with the ship too, and take the rest of us with them.

HE THINKS IT'S ALL BOUT THE TAX CUTS...AND HE IS PROBABLY RIGHT.

[AnneD]

78. Remember....

There are a lot of religious right in the GOP. They fully expect to be rapture out. Imagine their shock when they realize that they are stuck in this cesspool with the rest of us.

As most of you know I am deeply Christian but I for one do not engage in magical thinking and although Jesus does not talk to me, I know what he would do, and it sure as hell is not what these righteous dick wads are doing.

The Jesus I know and love helped the poor and threw the money changers out of his father's house...THAT is the Jesus I know,love and follow.

[kickysnana]

79. Gold is $1666 we are all going to die. n/t

[Demeter]

80. Yes, But With Any Luck

not in the near future. Got some bad people to stomp, first.

[Fuddnik]

82. Well, that guy in Californy revised the end of the world date.

Until Oct 21st.

Right before he had his stroke.

So, it looks like we can still do Oct. 6 to whenever in DC. But, it sucks because we're supposed to go on a cruise Oct. 30th.

[Po_d Mainiac]

88. Naw

Just means we're on the same side of the road, but on the wrong side of the tracks from 'Satan Place'

[Festivito]

81. Debt: 08/01/2011 14,342,358,440,969.10 (DOWN 10,845,226.51) (Mon, UP a lot.)

(OVER the old debt limit of 14.294-trillion dollars by 48-billion dollars. Good day.)
Can hardly see a thing.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,783,069,049,952.69 + 4,559,289,391,016.41
UP 27,273,368,503.87 + DOWN 27,284,213,730.38

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 313-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,199.24 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.60, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,574,592 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,884.59.
A family of three owes $137,653.78. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is -36,459,951.97.
The average for the last 30 days would be -24,306,634.64.
The average for the last 32 days would be -22,787,469.98.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 206 reports in 305 days of FY2011 averaging 3.79B$ per report, 2.56B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 538 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/01/2011 14,342,358,440,969.10 BHO (UP 3,715,481,392,056.02 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,780,735,410,077.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +0,934,322,703,863.12 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/12/2011 -003,634,448,925.47 --
07/13/2011 +010,692,053,599.69 ------------**********
07/14/2011 -001,516,331,672.50 --
07/15/2011 +003,100,504,281.51 ------------*********
07/18/2011 +000,238,790,593.83 ------------******** Mon
07/19/2011 +000,061,099,321.97 ------------*******
07/20/2011 -000,246,591,087.61 ---
07/21/2011 -006,272,699,061.03 --
07/22/2011 +000,804,035,241.16 ------------********
07/25/2011 -000,991,970,057.94 --- Mon
07/26/2011 +000,075,256,672.36 ------------*******
07/27/2011 +000,470,569,863.89 ------------********
07/28/2011 +005,447,179,210.73 ------------*********
07/29/2011 +002,605,572,370.14 ------------*********
08/01/2011 +027,273,368,503.87 ------------********** Mon

38,106,388,854.60 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4944578&mesg_id=4944591

[Festivito]

94. New debt numbers, usually posted by 3pm, still not posted past 6pm. /nt

[DemReadingDU]

96. ZeroHedge: Gross US Debt Surges By $240 Billion

Just saw this in ZeroHedge...

8/3/11 Gross US Debt Surges By $240 Billion Overnight, US Debt To GDP Hits Post World War II High 97.2%, Official Debt Ceiling Increase Only $400 Billion

Two things happened when the Senate voted in the "Bipartisan" plan into law yesterday: i) deferred debt on the Treasury's balance sheet finally caught up with reality, and ii) as a result of i) America's Debt/GDP just hit a post World War 2 High of 97.2%. Becasue as the Daily Treasury Statement as of last night indicates, total US marketable debt surged by $124.6 billion, while debt in intragovernmental holdings (Social Security, Government Retirement Accounts, etc), soared by $113.6 billion, for a combined one day change of $238.2 billion, the single biggest one day increase of US debt in history. Obviously this is a result of massive underfunding and disinvestment in the various government retirement accounts as well as due to deferred debt which was to be booked since the debt was breached on May 16. However, how marketable debt could increase by a whopping $125 billion without any actual auction settlement is slightly confusing. Just as confusing is that according to the endnote in the debt subject to limit calculation, the new ceiling is not the $900 billion increase as requested, but only $400 billion more than the $14.294 billion previous, or at $14.694 billion. We hope this is some Treasury type or misunderstanding as this new ceiling will be breached in a month. And the last thing we need is this whole debt ceiling drama back again in September. One thing there is no confusion about, however, is that based on the latest gross debt number of $14.581 trillion, and the just reported Q2 GDP of $15.003 billion, total US debt to GDP is now a post World War II high of 97.2% (and that excludes the GSE off balance sheet debt).




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gross-us-debt-surges-240-billion-overnight-us-debt-gdp-hits-post-world-war-ii-high-972-official

[Fuddnik]

85. Drunken Ben Bernanke tells everyone how screwed up the economy really is.

This is good.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/drunken-ben-bernanke-tells-everyone-at-neighborhoo,21059/?utm_source=recentnews

[Po_d Mainiac]

87. gag, choke, caugh, puke

White House: no double-dip recession seen

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama's spokesman is discounting talk that the economy may be headed back into recession, despite recent concerns of economists.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/White-House-no-doubledip-apf-2149562083.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

......
WASF

[Demeter]

89. Well, when you draw a line in the sand like that

It's an open invitation for Fate to take a hand...

I wonder if they will be using CGI (computer generated imagery) to cover it up. Wallpaper in funny shades of green doesn't do the trick, anymore.

The longer it takes, the worse it will be.

[AnneD]

91. We never got out of the Depression of 2007....

If you look at the Great Depression, the market rallied briefly before taking another plunge further. It just didn't crash in one day and really didn't recover until after WWII.

It isn't going to rally like that again. WS is taking us for chumps.....it is a sucker bet, another means to fleece our pockets, transfer the last bit of wealth to the 1%. Hold tight to your wealth folks.

Per Will Rodgers, the best way to double your money is fold it and put it back in your pocket.

[happyslug]

97. People forget HOW the Great Depression Started

The Great Depression hit the Rural areas first and hard, the farm economy was in a Recession by 1927. William Jennings Bryan had died in 1926, and with his death the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party lacked leadership. Bryan had contained the KKK in the 1924 Democratic Convention to make sure no debackle would occur in that year (Bryan viewed the KKK of the 1920s as a Right Wing radicals, that could NOT last very long for they had no view for the Future, running on Slogans, just like the Tea Party Today, he refused to leave the Right wing of the Democratic Party to use the KKK to take over the Democratic Party, running over 100 ballots BEFORE a Candidate for President was selected, to make sure the Nominee was as progressive as could be arranged in 1924, then through his younger brother as the VP to keep the Nominee, if he did win election, on the progressive track).

By 1928, rural farmers were in trouble, it was clear something had to be done to help them. Wall Street did NOT want such help to go to the Farmers, so they used their money and power to make sure the Democratic Party would pick a Wet (i.e. Wanted to Repeal Prohibition), Tammy Hall (and thus carrying the IMAGE of corruption, even through everyone said he was NOT) Wall street ally (Which is what Wall Street wanted in BOTH parties). The fact that Smith (The Democratic Nominee in 1928) was Catholic was also used against him, but Smith's main problem was he was an ally of Wall Street so the Progressive sat out the election (along with the "Dry" Democrats, i.e. supporters of Prohibition) so that Hoover (the GOP nominee and winner in 1928) would win in a landslide.

Had the Democrats run a Progressive Candidate in 1928 (even a "Dry" Candidate had Bryan lived to 1928, his brother lived till 1945)), such a candidate had a chance of winning, the Democrats were stronger in Rural America in 1928 then in Urban America in 1928, Democrats would NOT become the Dominate Inner City Party till after 1932 and the Results of the Great Depression, and Rural America would NOT become overwhelmingly GOP till after WWII, when do to mechanization of Agriculture many working class people had to move from Rural American to Urban America to look for and find work).

I bring this up, for by 1928 the situation in Rural America was already BAD, this was made worse by Stalin's efforts to get foreign exchange to pay for his industrialization of the Soviet Union, Stalin decided to pay for these foreign goods by selling Grain to Europe. Prior to WWI, Russia had been the main source of Grain to Western Europe, WWI stopped such exports and with the Russian Revolution, Western Europe turned to the US for its grain supply, leading to a big boom in Rural America, especially in the grain belt. In 1928 Stalin sold Soviet Wheat on the European market, this increase amount of wheat lead to a reduction in price, and this money to Rural America. Combined with the Start of the Dust Bowl, was a double blast to the Grain belt (As wheat production went down, so did the price as Stalin tried to gain more of the World Wheat Market).

Thus by 1928, Rural America was ready for a Change, but the Democrats refused to give them a Nominee they could vote for (and worse a pro wall Street Nominee, Al Smith's big source of revenue in the 1930s would be attacks on FDR and the New Deal, Wall Street paid to hear such crap).

Now, the Stock Market also peaked in the Summer of 1929, and started to slow decline before the "Crash" in October. After the "Crash" the Stock market RECOVERED almost to the level it was before the Crash by March 1, 1930. The problem was starting on March 1, 1920 the Stock market went into a Slow decline that did NOT stop til March 1934. That slow decline was what really set the Depression off, NOT the Crash. In the months between the Election in November 1932 and the Inauguration of FDR on March 4, 1933, every bank in the US Closed do to a lack of funds and runs on those banks. The New Deal was to address those problems AND the problem of Rural America and its rapid decline in Grain prices since 1927, the Dust Bowl, the rapid decline in industry since March 1, 1930. and the huge lack of ANY banks to borrow money from OR deposit money into by March 1934.

Thus by the time of the New Deal, you have had rural problem for Six years, Urban problems for three years AND a bank problem for six months. Where are we in that line? I suspect we are much like Rural America in 1927-1934 and about to enter the second phase, that of what happen to Urban America after March 1930. The banks will be open for a few more years, but everything else will go to the dogs before the banks starts to go under in large numbers.

[AnneD]

98. Thank you for that wonderful summary.....

Yes, we have not even begun yet. We pulled out Of the Depression because after WWII, the manufacturing base of the world had been bombed and the US was the only one up and running. Thus we had an advantage.

I don't see that happening for US manufacturing again. Also, WS types had plans and spoke openly of assinating FDR. He was considered by many to be A TRAITOR TO HIS CLASS. I emphasize that to wake people up to the fact that we have always had class warfare in this country and the sooner we take the blindfold off and face reality, the better.

[Tansy_Gold]

99. Can you re-post this either on Friday's SMW

for the day shift or on the Friday afternoon Week-End Economists thread?

This is a terrific analysis that I haven't seen before, and would I think spark some very thoughtful discussion.


:yourock:




TG