STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, August 1, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 1, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 29, 2011

Dow 12,143.24 -96.87 (-0.80%)
Nasdaq 2,756.38 -9.87 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,292.28 -8.39 (-0.65%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.83 +0.03 (+0.97%)
30-Year Bond 4.16 +0.04 (+1.00%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 12

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 51.0 54.0 55.3
Aug 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jun 0.2% 0.0% -0.6%

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/#ixzz1TmARNWr9

[Roland99]

38. ISM manufacturing gauge falls to two-year low (50.9)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-manufacturing-gauge-falls-to-two-year-low-2011-08-01?link=MW_home_latest_news

U.S. manufacturing activity barely grew in July, according to a key index released Monday in a demonstration of an economy struggling to expand.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge in July dropped 4.4 points to 50.9%, the worst reading since July 2009 and barely staying above the 50% no-change line.

The index came in far below a MarketWatch-compiled economist poll of 54.3%. U.S. stocks slumped after the ISM report, with the Dow industrials DJIA -0.32% recently down by 35 points. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds fell to their lowest level since November.

Since April, the ISM index has slumped 9.5 points, the worst three-month dip since the September-to-November 2008 period when Lehman Brothers collapsed.

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil rises above $97 after US debt deal reached

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $97 a barrel Monday in Asia after U.S. lawmakers struck a last-minute agreement to raise the government's debt limit, avoiding a default.

Benchmark oil for August delivery was up $1.71 to $97.42 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude dropped $1.74 to settle at $95.70 on Friday.

In London, Brent crude was up $2.80 at $119.54 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

President Barack Obama announced late Sunday that the deal agreed to by Republican and Democratic leaders would cut more than $2 trillion of federal spending over the next decade. Congress is expected to vote on the bill Monday.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. Stocks Rise; U.S. Default Risk, Yen Drop

Stocks and oil gained while the cost of U.S. default insurance fell the most in 18 months after President Barack Obama said congressional leaders reached an agreement to raise America’s debt ceiling. The yen, Swiss franc and Treasuries declined.

The MSCI All-Country World Index increased 0.7 percent at 6 a.m. in New York. Standard & Poor’s 500 futures rallied 1 percent. Credit-default swaps on Treasuries dropped nine basis points to 52, the biggest retreat since February 2010, and the yield on the 10-year note added four basis points to 2.84 percent. The yen weakened against its 16 major peers, while the Swiss franc depreciated 0.5 percent versus the euro. Crude oil jumped 1.5 percent and gold slipped 0.7 percent.

Republican and Democratic party leaders agreed on a deal that will “reduce the deficit and avoid default,” Obama said. The House plans votes today and the Senate may follow to consider the agreement that would raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling by $2.1 trillion and cut government spending. Data today may show American manufacturing grew last month, following reports that China’s factory output expanded.

“They’re trying to balance how they pay back the money without crushing growth potential in the short term, weighed off against long-term considerations where they need to reduce their overall debt burden,” said Hayden Briscoe, Sydney-based director of Asia-Pacific fixed income at AllianceBernstein LP, which manages $460 billion in assets. “It’s still very early days. There are still ongoing issues that need to be resolved.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-31/stock-futures-climb-dollar-oil-gain-as-u-s-nears-deal-to-avoid-default.html

[Demeter]

4. It's NOT a Plane! It's NOT a Helicopter!

It's an abomination.

Good morning PBD. We had a lovely cruise on the Titanic this weekend.

To those who didn't join us, too bad you missed it. It was a swell time!

[Fuddnik]

5. First rec.

Too much thunder to take the hounds to the park.

We have a deal! Music for the occasion.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNnAvTTaJjM

[Demeter]

6. second that

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5UrVdvk1Ao

and when PP goes to the Great Beyond:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eIk5DWUx_E&feature=related

would be the most appropriate signature tune.

Meanwhile, back in Congress:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrIYT-MrVaI&feature=related

[Fuddnik]

8. It does seem like an "Alfred Hitchcock Presents" moment.

[DemReadingDU]

12. +++

[Festivito]

7. Debt: 07/28/2011 14,342,865,885,306.46 (UP 46,735,701.70) (Thu, UP some.)

(OVER the old debt limit of 14.294-trillion dollars by 49-billion dollars. Good day.)
Funeral homes, hospitals, funeral homes.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,753,190,109,078.68 + 4,589,675,776,227.78
UP 5,447,179,210.73 + DOWN 5,400,443,509.03

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 313-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,199.53 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.60, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,545,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,890.45.
A family of three owes $137,671.34. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is -78,971,725.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be -52,647,816.66.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 204 reports in 301 days of FY2011 averaging 3.83B$ per report, 2.60B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 542 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/28/2011 14,342,865,885,306.46 BHO (UP 3,715,988,836,393.38 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,781,242,854,414.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +0,947,354,291,898.23 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/08/2011 -000,834,469,945.40 ---
07/11/2011 -004,122,303,723.36 -- Mon
07/12/2011 -003,634,448,925.47 --
07/13/2011 +010,692,053,599.69 ------------**********
07/14/2011 -001,516,331,672.50 --
07/15/2011 +003,100,504,281.51 ------------*********
07/18/2011 +000,238,790,593.83 ------------******** Mon
07/19/2011 +000,061,099,321.97 ------------*******
07/20/2011 -000,246,591,087.61 ---
07/21/2011 -006,272,699,061.03 --
07/22/2011 +000,804,035,241.16 ------------********
07/25/2011 -000,991,970,057.94 --- Mon
07/26/2011 +000,075,256,672.36 ------------*******
07/27/2011 +000,470,569,863.89 ------------********
07/28/2011 +005,447,179,210.73 ------------*********

3,270,674,311.83 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4940502&mesg_id=4940897

[Festivito]

57. Debt: 07/29/2011 14,342,369,286,195.61 (DOWN 496,599,110.85) (Fri, UP some.)

(OVER the old debt limit of 14.294-trillion dollars by 48-billion dollars. Good day.)
Hot day off and they don't want me back.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,755,795,681,448.82 + 4,586,573,604,746.79
UP 2,605,572,370.14 + DOWN 3,102,171,480.99

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 313-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,199.46 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.60, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,552,992 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,887.8.
A family of three owes $137,663.4. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is -103,220,734.84.
The average for the last 30 days would be -68,813,823.23.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 205 reports in 302 days of FY2011 averaging 3.81B$ per report, 2.59B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 541 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/29/2011 14,342,369,286,195.61 BHO (UP 3,715,492,237,282.53 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,780,746,255,303.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +0,943,617,162,867.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/11/2011 -004,122,303,723.36 -- Mon
07/12/2011 -003,634,448,925.47 --
07/13/2011 +010,692,053,599.69 ------------**********
07/14/2011 -001,516,331,672.50 --
07/15/2011 +003,100,504,281.51 ------------*********
07/18/2011 +000,238,790,593.83 ------------******** Mon
07/19/2011 +000,061,099,321.97 ------------*******
07/20/2011 -000,246,591,087.61 ---
07/21/2011 -006,272,699,061.03 --
07/22/2011 +000,804,035,241.16 ------------********
07/25/2011 -000,991,970,057.94 --- Mon
07/26/2011 +000,075,256,672.36 ------------*******
07/27/2011 +000,470,569,863.89 ------------********
07/28/2011 +005,447,179,210.73 ------------*********
07/29/2011 +002,605,572,370.14 ------------*********

6,710,716,627.37 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4943472&mesg_id=4943484

[xchrom]

9. morning everyone!

i'm still babysitting.

don't know what i'm going to do w/ the girls today.

they're still too young to get that purses & shoes should match -- so i can't have fun w/ that.

their parents HATE me -- but i'm a free babysitter.

maybe water color toenail painting?

[DemReadingDU]

13. sounds like fun

but doesn't water-colors, wash out, compared to real nail polish

[Demeter]

15. I think that's the idea.

[Demeter]

14. Go swimming

or run through the sprinklers. Treehouse? or a tent over a bush...play Peter Pan, or other dramatization of a story....reading is always good. Playdoh, if nothing else.

Soap bubbles was another favorite for my girls.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

37. you're never too young to play dress up

and any crafts that includes glitter and glue will amuse little ones.

[Demeter]

44. Neat Animation!

You won't mind if I take a copy?

[Viva_La_Revolution]

46. I snagged it off photobucket...

so copy away. :)

[Po_d Mainiac]

50. I liked a good game of "kick the kid'

When I wasn't the kid :hide:

[xchrom]

10. HSBC to slash 30,000 jobs as revenue stagnates

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hsbc-to-slash-30000-jobs-as-revenue-stagnates-2011-08-01-653520?dist=beforebell

LONDON (MarketWatch ) — HSBC Holdings PLC said Monday it is slashing around 30,000 jobs to cut costs and revamp its business, as the banking giant follows through on a May plan to withdraw from some countries and refocus its operations on high-growth markets.

On top of 5,000 jobs already under the axe in the U.S., U.K., France, Latin America and Middle East, around 25,000 further roles will be cut between now and 2013, Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver told reporters. He said the bank is still hiring in some countries, though, and that the net headcount reduction could be much smaller.

HSBC /quotes/zigman/207333/quotes/nls/hbc HBC +3.95% /quotes/zigman/13843 UK:HSBA +4.19% made the announcement as it reported flat first-half revenue of $35.7 billion, with weakness in Europe and its Global Banking & Markets division offsetting double-digit percentage revenue growth in Hong Kong, the rest of Asia Pacific and Latin America.

The group revenue figure, comparing with around $35.5 billion in the first half of 2010, was better than analyst expectations of $34.5 billion.

[Demeter]

17. Now that's just too big for a bank

when they can lay off 35,000 and still stay in business.

[xchrom]

19. +1

[OnlinePoker]

58. It's only 11% of their global workforce

Wiki says they employ 306,300 in 7500 offices in 87 countries.

[Ghost Dog]

39. Know what you've got coming: UK Austerity Blues

UK Austerity Woes: British economy has "flatlined" since last September

... Osborne isn't in the midst of an "audacious gamble". The reality is that he's doing only just enough, in terms of fiscal retrenchment, to keep the bond market wolves from the door. Yes, if the UK does end up growing at only 1.2pc this year, that will still leave the annual level of output some 3pc below its pre-recession peak of 2007. But the comparison is absurd. Back in 2007, the British economy was pumped up by levels of public spending and credit growth that were totally unsustainable. We shouldn't go back to that kind of "souped-up" economy, even if we could.

The danger that the UK faces isn't that Osborne's austerity programme is too harsh. The real problem is that it is barely being implemented. Global bond markets have become more benign towards the UK of late in part because the vigilantes are focused on the eurozone's problems, but also because the Tories – with Osborne and Cameron standing together – ultimately dared to openly suggest that Government spending should fall and the public didn't cuts off their heads.

The fact that they only made this argument with any vigour after the 2010 election was not only an affront to democracy but also, in my view, cost them an absolute majority. But, still, the Tories did finally dare to talk sense on deficit-reduction, treating the electorate like adults, and polls showed the public broadly agreed. That's why the bond markets backed off.

Now, we're in a situation where, having won the political argument, the Government is at risk of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Why? Because the reality is that "austerity" is barely happening at all. In June, Government spending, in both nominal and real terms, was higher than in the same month last year. Government borrowing was higher. Even if the annual deficit falls under the Tories' programme, the UK's national debt – the mortgage, rather than the bank overdraft – is set to soar from around £780bn today, to almost £1,200bn in 2014-15. That's still a staggering debt increase, and only a smidgen less than under Labour's plans...

/... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8672677/Why-Chancellor-George-Osborne-must-not-flinch-from-carrying-out-his-austerity-plan.html


UK households squeezed harder than US or Europe

UK households are suffering a tighter squeeze on disposable incomes than either the US or the rest of Europe, due largely to the weakness of sterling.

According to research by Haver Analytics, real disposable income is shrinking at a rate of about 3pc in the UK, but is contracting by just 0.5pc in the eurozone and continues to rise by 2pc in the US. The main squeeze on households has come from rising prices for food and energy, uniform across the world, but the weak pound has exacerbated the problem in the UK...

The pound has fallen by about 20pc against a basket of currencies since 2007, increasing the cost of imports. As the UK is a net importer, the squeeze on households has been more marked than the benefits of more competitive exports enjoyed by manufacturers. Households are now forecast to suffer a second successive year of sliding real disposable incomes, after enduring the biggest fall in spending power in 34 years...

/... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8672697/UK-households-squeezed-harder-than-US-or-Europe.html


City job cuts to cost the Government £1.3bn in lost tax revenue

City job cuts could cost the Government more than £1.3bn in lost tax revenue as investment banks draw up plans to cut thousands of staff after the summer break...

Estimates vary, but a 5pc reduction by the end of the year in the total number of "City-type" jobs is thought likely. This would equal a loss of about 16,000 jobs in the next five months. Based on an average salary of £150,000 and income tax of 50pc, employer national insurance of 2pc and employee national insurance of 2pc, this works out an average lost tax income per lost City job of £81,000, or a total loss of about £1.3bn in tax revenue...

"There is no market at the moment, there are only sellers. It's utterly dysfunctional. It's looking really horrid across the street," said one London-based bond trader. A City analyst, who asked not to be named, said: "Bond trading since the beginning of the year has been tough but in the last two months volumes have collapsed. My guess is job cuts will begin in September."

It is understood that at some bulge-bracket investment banks in June alone, trading fell so sharply, down as much as 25pc to 30pc year-on-year in some cases, that senior directors were forced to inform the Financial Services Authority...

/... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8673105/City-job-cuts-to-cost-the-Government-1.3bn-in-lost-tax-revenue.html


Ministry of Defence to cut 7,000 jobs - report

The Ministry of Defence is to axe a further 7,000 civilian jobs as the department attempts to bring its budget under control, the Guardian said on Friday. The paper reported that a letter signed by the department's permanent secretary, Ursula Brennan, would be sent to all staff explaining that cuts were necessary.

Last week Defence Secretary, Liam Fox, outlined proposals to cut a further 7,000 military jobs from the army between 2015 and 2020... In March, the government said it would make about 11,000 members of the armed forces redundant as it cuts defence spending under measures designed to help rein in the record budget deficit.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/07/29/uk-britain-defence-idUKTRE76S0D720110729


Consumers frugal and wary of future

The Bank of England said total lending to individuals rose by 0.4 billion pounds last month, compared to a 1.4 billion pound growth in May, as net mortgage lending fell by 0.1 billion pounds, confounding forecasts of a 1 billion pound rise. Consumer credit increased by 0.4 billion pounds, slightly above economists' expectations.

...

The GfK NOP consumer confidence index dropped five points to -30, almost matching the two-year low of -31 hit in April, as the one-off boost from the festivities and the extra holiday for Britain's royal wedding faded. Economists had only expected a dip to -27.

Retail sales fell at the fastest rate for a year in July, according to a survey published earlier this week by the Confederation of British Industry, and a number of retailers, including fashion chain Jane Norman and retailer of alcoholic drinks Oddbins, have fallen into administration in recent months.

Britain's economy barely grew between April and June and business surveys have indicated manufacturers are facing a slowdown, banks are keeping credit tight as they repair their balance sheets and consumers are suffering the worst squeeze in income for 30 years on the back of soaring food and fuel prices, higher taxes and slow wage increases.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/07/29/uk-britain-consumer-idUKTRE76R80P20110729


First manufacturing dip since crisis signals weak third quarter

(Reuters) - Manufacturing shrank in July for the first time since the country was in recession two years ago, a survey showed, adding to signs the recovery is faltering and piling more pressure on the government to boost growth.

The figures confounded forecasts for a modest slowdown, reinforcing expectations the Bank of England will leave interest rates at their record low 0.5 percent for a long time to come, and rekindled speculation it may even have to inject more stimulus into the economy further down the line.

The pound fell after the data and UK government bonds inched higher.

The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI headline activity index fell to 49.1 in July from a revised 51.4 in June -- the first time it has been below the 50 mark that separates contraction from expansion since July 2009, and the weakest reading since June of that year. Analysts had expected a reading of 51.0

The survey reinforced indications that the fragile recovery is wilting, leaving the nation in the midst of its longest phase of economic weakness in almost a century.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/01/uk-factory-pmi-idUKLNE77000F20110801

-----------------

[Demeter]

47. UK could jail their banksters and close the City

just saying

[xchrom]

11. asia: China manufacturing activity shrinks in July: HSBC

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-manufacturing-activity-shrinks-in-july-hsbc-2011-07-31?dist=beforebell

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China’s manufacturing activity contracted slightly in July, signaling a deterioration in the operating environment at the nation’s factories, as tighter monetary conditions weighed further on the sector, according to data released Monday by HSBC.

The monthly purchasing managers index fell to 49.3, its lowest reading since March 2009, compared with 50.1 in June, HSBC said in its monthly statement. The final outcome was better than the 48.9 print recorded in a preliminary reading that HSBC released a few days earlier.

The data, based on the results of a survey compiled by Markit, confirmed a slowing growth momentum in the manufacturing sector “against the backdrop of sustained tightening and lackluster external demand,” Hongbin Qu, HSBC’s chief economist for China, said in a statement accompanying the data.

[Demeter]

16. Tuesday is a Primary in Michigan

local elections. So I will be working the polls and not around.

I reminded the clerk's office how I had a brush with heatstroke the last time I worked a primary in an unventilated, un-air-conditioned gymnasium...and I would work ONLY in a cold place, and the idiot stuck me in an un-air-conditioned space. I will be spending my lunch and supper time in the pool, and if I survive this, I'll check in Weds. And then I will go to a shrink, which I obviously really need.

But this is the last primary I'm working. Life is too short to die that way. There's a chance the weather will break before then....

[Demeter]

18. Today we get to see if Wall St. is Worried about the Debt Ceiling

or if the "fix" is in.

I double my bet that the Baggers bag it. You can't negotiate with crazy.

[Demeter]

48. psst....I think They are WORRIED

and I think the PPT is overwhelmed.

Flirting with 12,000 at 12:30

[Demeter]

20. Ransom Paid BY Robert Reich

QUESTION IS...TO WHOM?

http://robertreich.org/post/8331408301

Anyone who characterizes the deal between the President, Democratic, and Republican leaders as a victory for the American people over partisanship understands neither economics nor politics...The deal does not raise taxes on America’s wealthy and most fortunate — who are now taking home a larger share of total income and wealth, and whose tax rates are already lower than they have been, in eighty years. Yet it puts the nation’s most important safety nets and public investments on the chopping block. It also hobbles the capacity of the government to respond to the jobs and growth crisis. Added to the cuts already underway by state and local governments, the deal’s spending cuts increase the odds of a double-dip recession. And the deal strengthens the political hand of the radical right.

Yes, the deal is preferable to the unfolding economic catastrophe of a default on the debt of the U.S. government. The outrage and the shame is it has come to this choice....More than a year ago, the President could have conditioned his agreement to extend the Bush tax cuts beyond 2010 on Republicans’ agreement not to link a vote on the debt ceiling to the budget deficit. But he did not.

Many months ago, when Republicans first demanded spending cuts and no tax increases as a condition for raising the debt ceiling, the President could have blown their cover. He could have shown the American people why this demand had nothing to do with deficit reduction but everything to do with the GOP’s ideological fixation on shrinking the size of the government — thereby imperiling Medicare, Social Security, education, infrastructure, and everything else Americans depend on. But he did not. And through it all the President could have explained to Americans that the biggest economic challenge we face is restoring jobs and wages and economic growth, that spending cuts in the next few years will slow the economy even further, and therefore that the Republicans’ demands threaten us all. Again, he did not.

The radical right has now won a huge tactical and strategic victory. Democrats and the White House have proven they have little by way of tactics or strategy. MORE

[Papa Boule]

23. That first paragraph nails it. This is a major turning point in social mood

and has set the stage for some turbulent times ahead. And that may be putting it mildly.

[Roland99]

24. This writer for Time seems to think Obama came out the big winner

http://news.yahoo.com/debt-deal-reached-congress-swallow-own-bitter-medicine-092705234.html


ugh.

[Hotler]

62. Republicans suck. Democrats have no spine. And...

I have no hope. I see no future.

[JCMach1]

21. should be delirious today, they got the debt deal THEY wanted

everyone else got screwn...

[DemReadingDU]

31. What happened to the opening jump? from +134 to -54

:shrug:

[Fuddnik]

40. Yeah, I just saw that.

It was all poised to jump up a brazillion, I focused my attention elsewhere, and it's down 83.

[Demeter]

22. World Reacts to Debt Ceiling Debacle: "Irresponsible," "Worst Kind of Absurd Theatrics"

I BLAME IT ALL ON THE DUMBING DOWN OF TELEVISION...

http://www.truth-out.org/world-reacts-debt-ceiling-debacle-irresponsible-worst-kind-absurd-theatrics/1312035874

But as the U.S. inches closer to defaulting on its debts for the first time in history, criticism of Congress is starting to come from beyond our own borders. From France and Germany to China and India, countries around the world are angry that American politicians play with the possibility of a U.S. default like a yo-yo with little regard for the international economic system that depends on American solvency.

Despite China's traditional preference of staying out of the domestic affairs of other nations, senior Chinese officials' frustrations are growing louder and louder. Stephen Roach, the non-executive chairman of Morgan Staley Asia, said senior Chinese officials told him the debt ceiling debte in the U.S. is "truly shocking." "We understand the politics," a Chinise official said, "but your government's continued recklessness is astonishing." And newspapers around the world are voicing discontent with Congress's handling of the debt ceiling:

Conservative German Die Welt: "T]here are few signs of self-doubt or self-awareness in the U.S. … The Tea Party movement] sees the other side as their enemy. Negotiations with the Democrats, whether it's about appointing a judge or the insolvency of the United States, are only successful if the enemy is defeated. Compromise, they feel, is a sign of weakness and cowardice."

The German mass-circulation Bild: "What America is currently exhibiting is the worst kind of absurd theatrics and the whole world is being held hostage… Most importantly, the Republicans have turned a dispute over a technicality into a religious war, which no longer has any relation to a reasonable dispute between the elected government and the opposition."

French newspaper Le Monde:"The American politicians supposed to lead the most powerful nation in the world are becoming a laughing stock."

Chinese state-owned newspaper Xinhua: "Given the United States' status as the world's largest economy and the issuer of the dominant international reserve currency, such political brinksmanship in Washington is dangerously irresponsible."

The founding documents of many nations around the world take their inspiration from and quote the U.S. Declaration of Independence and Constitution. But now, foreigners don't seem to be too inspired watching the intransigent wing of one political party that controls one house of one branch of the federal government hold the entire U.S. hostage. American soft power has taken a self-inflicted hit as a result of the debt ceiling debate.

Even if Congress manages to forge a deal against the wishes of the Tea Party and deliver a bill to President Obama's desk raising the debt ceiling before default, the damage to our international standing has already been done. Other nations won't forget how some members of Congress were so careless to allow the international economy fall into another financial disaster in order to score a few political points.

Ken Sofer, special assistant with the National Security and International Policy team at the Center for American Progress.

[Demeter]

25. The Market on Ecstasy

Looks like the fix is in. Or the PPT showed up for work.

[Fuddnik]

41. Looks like they broke too early for a several martini lunch.

[Demeter]

26. Evil Corporate Tax Holiday Gains Bipartisan Support

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/evil-corporate-tax-holiday-gains-bipartisan-support-20110726

The madness that is the proposed tax repatriation holiday is continuing and gathering steam. More and more members of congress are coming out of the woodwork, scratching their chins in contemplative consideration as it were, pretending that they’ve just realized what a great day a corporate tax holiday would be – not that they’ve taken gazillions of dollars from the firms lobbying for it or anything.

The latest convert seems to be Nevada Democrat Shelley Berkley. Berkley’s plan is to offer a pseudo-holiday – not the full-fledged happy-ending massage the companies wanted (i.e. a reduction from 35 percent+ to 5.25 percent) but a mere ten-point shave:

MORE AT LINK

[Demeter]

27. President's Twitter campaign back-tweets

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/29/presidents-twitter-campaign-back-tweets/?iref=allsearch&om_rid=CZthPx&om_mid=_BONAKsB8chDdsU

It's hard to explain it in 140 characters or less. President Obama's re-election Twitter account lost thousands of followers Friday after his 2012 campaign tried to use the social media site to turn up the heat on Republicans over the debt ceiling...

SCHAUDENFREUDE, GUTTERFUNKEL...TOCHTER AUS ELISIUM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f42GIopSUZs&feature=related

[bread_and_roses]

33. are they sure all the fall-off was due to "hard to understand?"

I'll bet at least some of them understood all too well.

Meanwhile, I got a laugh out of this:

"Dear #Obamatons you are ruining my interactions with thoughtful democrats with this spam. And U R hurting your President," tweeted Rep. Dennis Ross R-Florida.

[Demeter]

28. Legislation to Phase Out Private Military Contractors is Filed in Senate and House

http://blog.buzzflash.com/node/12897

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) today introduced legislation that would phase out private security contractors in war zones.

The legislation recognizes that the United States increasingly has relied on private contractors to wage our wars, wasting taxpayer money, damaging military morale and hurting our reputation around the world.

"The American people have always prided themselves on the strength, conduct, and honor of our United States military. I therefore find it very disturbing that now, in the midst of two wars and a global struggle against terrorism, we are relying more and more on private security contractors - rather than our own military - to provide for our national defense," Sanders said.

"Our continued reliance on private security contractors endangers our military, damages our relationships with foreign governments, and undermines our global priorities," said Schakowsky. "Though we have the finest military in the world, we continue to outsource our security to private contractors, who answer to a corporation rather than a uniformed commander. When Senator Sanders and I introduced this legislation last year, we had 22,000 armed private contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, we have 28,178. We need this bill now more than ever. "

There are 155,000 contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan today, but only 145,000 uniformed service members.

About 28,000 of the contractors are performing mission-critical functions such as training troops and police, guarding convoys, repairing weapons, administering military prisons, and performing military intelligence.

The Stop Outsourcing Security Act would restore the responsibility of the military to perform such functions. The bill also would require that all diplomatic security be undertaken by U.S. government personnel. The White House could seek exceptions, but those contracts would be subject to congressional oversight.

The legislation is a strong and necessary step toward restoring the international reputation of the United States. Military officers in the field have said that private contractors operate like "cowboys," using unnecessary and excessive force uncharacteristic of enlisted soldiers. In 2007, guards working for a firm then known as Blackwater were accused of killing 17 Iraqis, damaging the U.S. mission in Iraq and hurting our reputation around the world. Later that year, a contractor employed by DynCorp International allegedly shot and killed an unarmed taxi driver. Incidents like this demonstrate that we should leave warfare to the military rather than delegate it to private corporations.

This legislation would also save money. High pay for contract workers in war zones burdens taxpayers and saps military morale. While some soldiers who risk their lives for their country struggle to support their families, private security company employees are often paid two or three times as much as U.S. military personnel doing the exact same work, sometimes pocketing as much as $1,000 a day. By some estimates, every position converted from a private contract to federal employment saves on average $44,000 per year.

THIS IS A PRESS RELEASE---NEWS ALERT FROM SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.)

[Pale Blue Dot]

29. WOW! Plunge! Dow down 100 points in about 15 minutes.

Something happened.

[Pale Blue Dot]

30. Maybe this? U.S. Auto Sales Stall, Casting Doubt on Rebound

U.S. auto sales have stalled, casting doubt on a rebound this year as persistent unemployment and tighter lending deter buyers.

Light-vehicle deliveries in July, to be released tomorrow, may have run at an 11.8 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the average estimate of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That would trail the 12.5 million rate in the first half.

The auto industry may lose 1.5 million in projected sales in 2011, according to consultant AlixPartners LLP. The economy isn’t picking up as fast as anticipated, and the drag may continue beyond this year, AlixPartners said. That may put a return to average annual sales of 16.8 million vehicles from 2000 to 2007 out of reach. Unemployment reached the highest level this year in June.

“This curve of unemployment looks like it’s got a lot of legs,” Mark Wakefield, an AlixPartners director in Southfield, Michigan, said in a telephone interview. “This is one of the first recent cycles where demand is not going to go back above its prior peak, because there are just so many structural things that are different this time around.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-01/auto-sales-stall-as-unemployment-puts-peak-out-of-reach-cars.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

35. Or Perhaps... Allstate Posts $620 Million Loss on Storms

Allstate Corp. (ALL), the second-largest U.S. home and auto insurer, posted its first quarterly loss in more than two years as tornadoes led to a surge in claims costs. The stock gained as results beat estimates.

The second-quarter net loss of $620 million, or $1.19 a share, compares with profit of $145 million, or 27 cents, a year earlier, the Northbrook, Illinois-based insurer said today in a statement. The operating loss, which excludes some investment results, was $1.23 a share, beating by 35 cents the average estimate of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Wilson, 53, added auto customers in most states excluding New York and Florida, where the firm has scaled back to boost profitabilty. He’s also raising rates for homeowners’ coverage after storms caused catastrophe costs in the second quarter to balloon to $2.34 billion, an expense the insurer had previously disclosed.

“There is a light at the end of the tunnel” if they can reduce their homeowners exposure and increase the number of auto-insurance customers, said Tom Lewandowski, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co., in an interview. “There’s a lot of pessimism priced into these shares.” He advises clients to buy the stock.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-01/allstate-posts-620-million-loss-first-in-two-years-on-tornado-expenses.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

32. Or this? U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Fell to 50.9 in July From 55.3

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 50.9 in July from 55.3 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today.

Economists projected the gauge would drop to 54.5, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates of the 80 economists ranged from 51 to 56.

Manufacturing indexes from Asia to Europe fell last month as demand weakened and the global recovery from recession lost momentum, other reports showed. U.K., Russian and Australian manufacturing shrank, while the pace of factory growth slowed in Europe and China, according to surveys.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-01/auto-sales-stall-as-unemployment-puts-peak-out-of-reach-cars.html

[DemReadingDU]

34. US manufacturing activity falls to weakest level in two years, halting stock market rally

from twitter...

BreakingNews Breaking News
US manufacturing activity falls to weakest level in two years, halting stock market rally http://bit.ly/nK8BPo
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/july-ism-manufacturing-index-slumps-to-509-2011-08-01

[Fuddnik]

43. That fits right in with the lousy GDP numbers.

ISM 50.9 is just short of contracting.

[Pale Blue Dot]

36. Do you think the fact that Wall Street could care less that a "deal" has been reached

will change some votes from "for" to "against"?

[burf]

42. Wall Street knew the fix was in.

All the kabuki in the media was a smoke screen.

[DemReadingDU]

45. 1982 Johnny Carson Lie Detector Politician

so true, even today

1982 Johnny Carson Lie Detector Politician
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKgmScYcK6g&feature=player_embedded

[Demeter]

51. Looks like the Fix Came Unfixed

[roomfullofmirrors]

53. Investors are going to find these discounted stock prices irresistible at some point.

and when they do, it will be a feeding frenzy. I think 12,000 is the breaking point.

[Demeter]

49. Such a response to those Reports Would Indicate a Tragic Connection to Reality

In this soma-stuffed world, that seems unlikely.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XypVcv77WBU

Too bad I'm not going to be online tomorrow..that ought to be a real experience.

[Ghost Dog]

54. Stocks Slump on dismal news

The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed more than expected in July, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM index slipped to 50.9 from 55.3 the month before, shy of expectations of 54.9, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

"Unbeknownst to what many of our trusted lawmakers may like to believe, the poor readings on the economy are not exclusive to the debt drama," Todd Schoenberger, managing director of LandColt Trading told CNBC. "If they woke up this morning thinking trading would be a cakewalk and investors would parade Congress on their shoulders as a result of this so-called deal, they are clearly mistaken."

The dismal news follows the government's first reading on GDP last Friday, which came in at an anemic 1.3 percent, raising fears of a double-dip ahead.

The dollar dropped to a fresh low against the Swiss franc and a 4-1/2-month trough versus the yen following the report. Meanwhile, the Japanese government is preparing a currency intervention to weaken the yen and has discussed additional monetary easing, according to Japan's Nikkei newspaper.

Schoenberger added that traders are preparing for a "horrendous" non-farm payroll report at the end of the week and are struggling to find hopeful signs that the economy is recovering.

/... http://www.cnbc.com/id/43970242?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

[Pale Blue Dot]

52. Barack Obama, Hostage Negotiator (an original piece by me)

Barack Obama approaches the hostage scene.

B.O.: Sergeant, what's going on here?

Sergeant: A group of Republicans are holding the American people hostage.

B.O. What are their demands?

Sergeant: They want $2.4 trillion dollars and they want to kill the hostages.

B.O. Ok. I got this. (grabs megaphone). Republicans! I agree that you should have $2.4 trillion. Just release the hostages and let me get some of that money from my rich friends.

Sergeant: Wait, what?

Republicans: NO! The rich have sacrificed enough! Take it from your poor friends and then let us kill the hostages!

B.O.: Please - let's be reasonable and compromise. How about I get the money from my poor friends and you release the hostages?

Republicans: If you give us the money and let us keep the hostages, you have a deal.

B.O.: You drive a hard bargain, but I can accept that. (to Sergeant) Well, it's not perfect, but I think we can claim victory here.

Sergeant: But we got nothing!

B.O. They didn't kill the hostages. Our nation was built on compromise.

[Hawkowl]

55. Extortion

That is a good dramatic example of the real extortion we are experiencing.

[Fuddnik]

56. Extortion my ass.

It all appears to be a carefully choreographed play. Obama goes out on the golf course, and goes over the script with Boner. Boner and Barack get everything they want. Barack looks like he put up some semblance of a fight, and everyone is happy. Except for the people who get screwed.

All they were negotiating were the terms of our enslavement. We were going to be reduced to serfs anyway. It was just a difference of degree.

[Po_d Mainiac]

59. Ayuh

Boner and Oboner...tough to tell the difference

[Hawkowl]

61. Oh I didn't mean Obama was being extorted

I meant we, the people are being extorted. The politicians are just bad cop, worse copping us.

[Demeter]

60. Well, He got his "compromise"

may he never have a day's luck with it.