Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (05/19/2011)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Employment and Training Administration, Department of Labor

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 409,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 438,000. The 4-week moving average was 439,000, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 437,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending May 7, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 7 was 3,711,000, a decrease of 81,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,792,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,728,250, an increase of 750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,727,500.

Read more: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20110721.htm

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From the source.

[geckosfeet]

1. Oh good. Now we are citing the 'seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate'.

Like the rest of the unemployed just don't count anymore and we are writing them off.

STATES WITH A DECREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State | Change | State Supplied Comment
NY | -23,445| Fewer layoffs in the service and construction industries.
WI | -3,556 | No comment.
OH | -3,014 | No comment.
CT | -2,693 | No comment.
NJ |-1,599 | Fewer layoffs in the trade, construction, service, transportation, and warehousing industries.
IN | -1,199 | No comment.
IL | -1,189 |Fewer layoffs in the construction, manufacturing, and service industries.
Total | -36,695

STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State | Change | State Supplied Comment
NC | +1,192 | Layoffs in the construction, service, leather goods, and rubber/ plastics industries.
WA | +1,198 | Layoffs in the manufacturing and construction industries.
MS | +1,666 | Layoffs in the service industry.
MI | +3,122 | Layoffs in the automobile and construction industries.
PR | +3,124 | No comment.
CA | +4,015 | Layoffs in the service industry.
AL | +5,767 | The figure reflected impact of storms and tornadoes of the previous week. Also, layoffs in the textile, apparel, and service industries.
Total | +20,084

[pinqy]

2. Not seasonally adjusted numbers are better

The unadjusted numbers are also published in the report, and, as a matter of fact, the unadjusted numbers are LOWER and have GREATER drop.

Seasonally adjusted shows initial claims for week ending May 7th as 438,000 and May 14th as 409,000 for a decrease of 29,000.
Not seasonally adjusted shows initial claims for week ending May 7th as 397,737 and May 14th as 357,872 for a decrease of 39,865

So how are you figuring anyone is being written off? Perhaps you should actually read the press release and look at the numbers before commenting.

Edited to add: It's possible you were thinking the insured unemployment rate is meant to replace the official total unemployment rate. which is ridiculous. The insured unemployment rate is nothing new either but no one would ever want it as the official measure because it's too exclusive.

[geckosfeet]

3. I read it. My only point is that the unadjusted numbers , the real numbers are the

one that are important and the ones that should the release should discuss in minute detail.

I suppose that the subsets of that number are of interest as well - like the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment which ends up being a small subset and hence a superficially less devastating number

Was not being critical of your post - in fact thanks for the post and the link.

I am just angry that instead of taking aggressive action to address unemployment, they spend time and energy massaging the numbers make it look good.

[pinqy]

4. But they didn't..

How can you claim "they spend time and energy massaging the numbers make it look good" when the seasonally adjusted numbers were WORSE?

Seasonal adjustment is used to smooth out the curve of the long run trend and avoid the noise from normal fluctuations. An unadjusted report saying employment went up in June, right after high school and college graduation tells us nothing...employment always goes up in June. Seasonal adjustment filters out the usual increase and shows the underlying trend.

It's like measuring the ocean at high tide, then at low....you have no idea if the ocean is actually changing levels or if it's just the tide.

[geckosfeet]

5. Ok. Thanks for the update.

[Yo_Mama]

6. They don't

This is the way that initial claims have been compiled and reported forever. They are adjusted for several weeks as more data comes in.

The seasonal adjustment helps you compare short-term variation. Seasonal adjustment factors are computed by averaging changes in the prior years, and are published long before the actual adjustment is. There is no "massaging" here at all.

Both sets of numbers are reported each week. You can pull time series of the data for the intervals you want at this link:
http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp

Initial and continuing claims numbers are only posted at that link after the third report for the week, after which the number is considered official.

Because initial claims are very volatile, everyone pretty much tracks the four-week moving average. You can also see a long term trend for "covered employment" at the report link I have you. Covered employment is tabulated by adding up reports of active unemployment accounts at states and updated about quarterly.

There is no need to insult the people who do this work. (I don't do it, but I think they do a pretty darned good job!) Yes, the trend of initial claims is rising. It has been since the beginning of April. Currently the four-week moving average for initial claims is the worst since last November. But don't blame the people who compile the numbers for the numbers. They just tot up what is reported to them by the states.