STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, February 10, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, February 10, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 9, 2011

Dow 12,239.89 +6.74 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,789.07 -7.98 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,320.88 -3.69 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.66 +0.01 (+0.14%)
30-Year Bond 4.71 +0.00 (+0.02%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 10 08:30 Initial Claims 02/05 410K 410K 415K
Feb 10 08:30 Continuing Claims 01/29 3900K 3900K 3925K
Feb 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Dec 1.5% 0.7% -0.2%
Feb 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jan -53.0B -$59.5B -42.6B

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm#ixzz1DYjquV6Q

[Pale Blue Dot]

8. Jobless claims fall to 2-1/2 year low

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in more than 2-1/2 years last week, easing some of the disappointment about a weak monthly jobs report.

There were 383,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended Feb. 5, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was down 36,000 from the week before, and much better than the 410,000 claims economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected.

It was also the lowest level since July 5, 2008, when 371,000 first-time claims were filed.

Continuing claims -- which include people filing for the second week of benefits or more -- fell by 47,000 to 3,888,000 in the week ended Jan. 29, the most recent week available.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/news/economy/initial_claims/

There are, of course, reasons to be curious about these numbers, but on the surface they're good news.

[AnneD]

9. Do I feel a draft....

or is somebody trying to blow smoke up my ass.:grr:

[Demeter]

12. I'm Not Sure I Can Feel Anything

It's up to 6F from below zero. I've been up since 2 AM, didn't finish till 8:20. I broke down and bought 3 pr wool boot socks, and inner soles for arch support in my boots. It really helped.

The job is impossible, the Kid for Hire wants to quit, so I am going to drop one route and keep the other for myself (whoopee).

The inherent cruelty with which this shuffling was done (in the coldest winter, on the coldest night, with inadequate documentation and twice as much work at half the pay) just shows what the Fundies think of anyone who actually works for a living.

I tried calling two different places, and got voice mail both times. So, have a Chinese firedrill, and then send all the staff off on vacation. What a business plan! Sure to maximize customer and employee satisfaction, and increase circulation.

Somebody please talk me down. At least, I didn't stop at the pond and jump in (the damn thing is probably frozen down to the silt, anyway.)

This weekend is a Lincoln's Valentine Day. I think Lincoln deserves a special valentine, don't you?

Accepting all donations of chocolate at the usual address....

[tclambert]

59. Don't jump!

You might bruise something when you hit the ice. The ice fisherpeople are driving pickup trucks out onto Walled Lake this week. The ice must be a foot thick.

[Pale Blue Dot]

36. U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise More Than Forecast

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose more than forecast in December as distributors tried to keep up with improving sales.

The 1 percent increase in stockpiles compared with a 0.7 percent gain median forecast in the Bloomberg News survey and followed an unchanged reading in November, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Sales grew 0.4 percent to $371.5 billion, the highest level since August 2008.

Strengthening demand indicates orders to factories will keep climbing, which will keep manufacturing at the forefront of the economic expansion in coming months. The need to replenish stockpiles will probably contribute to growth in coming months.

“Demand is coming back and companies are seeing the need to keep their shelves well stocked,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets Inc. in Toronto. “Manufacturers are cranking up production to keep up with growing strength in exports and growing domestic demand.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-10/u-s-wholesale-inventories-rise-more-than-forecast.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

38. Home heating assistance seen at record high

NEW YORK — High energy prices, high unemployment and a cold winter are prompting a record number of households to seek home heating assistance.

The National Energy Assistance Directors' Association will announce Wednesday that 8.9 million households are expected to qualify for financial help this winter, up from 8.3 million last winter. It's the third year in a row the number of households needing assistance has set a new high.

The chief reason is the economy, according to Mark Wolfe, Executive Director of NEADA. "We have this group who weren't poor before the recession, who are poor now and scrambling for whatever they can get," Wolfe says. "It's a tough situation."

Congress doubled funding for the program, called Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP, to $5.1 billion two years ago and matched that level last year. Congressional Republicans are expected to try to pare that back during budget negotiations next week.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41489123/ns/business-oil_and_energy/

[hamerfan]

40. Corollary to the above

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4727311

Congressional Republicans are not the only ones wanting to pare back funding for LIHEAP. Obama and Co. are looking to halve it!

[Demeter]

50. Shelves aren't getting stocked around here

the grocery stores especially have big hole in the shelves.

I think it's more the lack of an economy, than the bad weather, but I'm biased. I expect a lot of retailers are having cash flow problems--even Krogers.

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil hovers below $87 as OPEC raises crude output

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered below $87 a barrel Thursday in Asia after a report showed OPEC boosted crude output last month to a two-year high amid signs of growing global demand.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was down 13 cents at $86.58 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 23 cents to settle at $86.71 on Wednesday.

In London, Brent crude fell 24 cents to $101.58 a barrel ICE Futures exchange.

According to a report Wednesday from Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Co., crude oil production by the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rose 1 percent last month to average 29.57 million barrels per day, a two-year high.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. Today in "History Repeats Itself": The bull market is here to stay

ROCKVILLE, Md. (MarketWatch) — Mark Twain popularized the line that there are three kinds of lies: “lies, damned lies, and statistics.” And Warren Buffett has quipped that “a public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought.” So understandably, investors are reluctant to place too much weight in economic statistics or polls — especially at a time of such market volatility and financial uncertainty.

After all, the only number that really matters is the bottom line of your brokerage account or your 401(k).

But just because a number can’t be guaranteed as a 100% accurate measure of the American economy, that doesn’t mean investors should ignore the data points at their disposal — especially when many of those indicators appear to be saying the same thing.

Here are 11 recent facts and figures that appear to be pointing toward sustained economic growth and a bull market that is here to stay:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-is-here-to-stay-2011-02-10

[DemReadingDU]

5. until it crashes

what goes up, will come down. fast.
remember 1929

[rfranklin]

7. I think we're parallel to 1930 at this point...

Looks like a recovery and then ....ooops!


<p><a href="http://www.online-stock-trading-guide.com/1929-1932-stock-chart.html" target="_blank"><img src="" width="465" height="340" border="0" title="Online Stock Trading Guide" alt="Online Stock Trading Guide" /></a></p>

[AnneD]

11. I tried to look up....

this numb nut's bio. All I could find was journalism. Not that that would be bad, but he need to have some 'schoolin'. I think some 'time in the saddle' is required before you give such advice. Long timers have a quit different take on things.

[Demeter]

13. He Did Say a BullS*** Market, Didn't He?

With bubbles in stocks and commodities....

[Pale Blue Dot]

4. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline; Cisco, Pepsico Shares Decline

U.S. stock-index futures declined amid deepening concern that accelerating global inflation will drive up borrowing costs and after Cisco Systems Inc. posted a profit margin that missed analysts’ estimates.

Cisco plunged 8.7 percent after the largest provider of networking equipment reported a lower-than-forecast gross margin because the company spent more money developing products. Pepsico Inc. lost 2 percent after it projected full-year earnings growth that trailed analysts estimates. Activision Blizzard Inc. slumped 8 percent as the company disbanded the unit that made the “Guitar Hero” computer game.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in March slid 0.6 percent to 1,311.7 at 12:21 p.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 0.4 percent to 12,158 today, while Nasdaq-100 Index futures lost 0.9 percent to 2,343.

“The earnings that helped the market to go up are mostly out and markets are very overbought, without a meaningful correction for some time,” said Radu Margoses, senior sales trader at Newedge Group in Zurich. “Cisco missed on gross margins which doesn’t help the outlook for trading today.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-10/u-s-stock-index-futures-slide-as-cisco-margin-misses-analysts-estimates.html

[rfranklin]

6. U.S. stock futures pare drop after jobless claims

U.S. stock futures pare drop after jobless claims
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures lightly pared Thursday losses after the government said the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits declined to its lowest level in more than two years last week. Down about 50 points before the report, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were off 42 points to 12,165. Futures for the Standard & Poor's 500 fell 6.2 points to 1,313. Those for the Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 19 points to 2,343.25

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-pare-drop-after-jobless-claims-2011-02-10

[Roland99]

10. Still looking to be an ugly opening.

[AnneD]

15. I think...

fugly is a more apt choice of words. Maybe I need to up my meds today.

[Hotler]

14. k&r n/t

[Pale Blue Dot]

16. Joint Force Command cuts 2,300 in Virginia; MacDill will lose jobs

SUFFOLK, Va. - The general of a military headquarters known as the U.S. Joint Forces Command said Wednesday that 2,300 workers in Virginia will lose their jobs as part of the Pentagon's plan to trim bureaucracy and cut costs.

The command employs nearly 6,000 military and civilian personnel, with the bulk of those working at its headquarters in southeast Virginia. About three dozen positions at Creech Air Force Base in Indian Springs, Nev., about 45 miles northwest of Las Vegas, will be cut. The base is home to a squadron operating unmanned aircraft over Iraq and Afghanistan.

Another 25 to 30 percent of the command's work force in Tampa will also be eliminated.

A MacDill spokeswoman said, "There are not a lot of Joint Forces people comparitively in Florida, a couple hundred total."

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2011/feb/09/092025/closing-of-joint-force-command-to-cut-2300-jobs-in/news-money/

[Pale Blue Dot]

17. Activision pulls plug on Guitar Hero, laying off 500 workers

Striking the death knell for a once-hot music game business, Activision Blizzard on Wednesday said it will disband Guitar Hero and scrap development of a Guitar Hero title slated for this year.

At the same time, the Santa Monica company told analysts during a conference call to announce fourth-quarter results that it will invest heavily in creating an online service dubbed BeachHead for an existing video-game franchise, Call of Duty.

Activision, which provided little detail on the upcoming service, also dropped hints about a new product it plans to announce next week at Toy Fair in New York, as well as a new multiplayer online title from its Blizzard Entertainment studio in Irvine. Executives declined to further explain the new projects.

Guitar Hero 2 At the same time, Activision said it plans to lay off about 500 workers, roughly 7% of its workforce, associated with Guitar Hero and other games for casual players. The publisher also announced it has axed True Crime: Hong Kong, a "shooter" game modeled after Take-Two Interactive Software's blockbuster Grand Theft Auto franchise.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/02/activision-guitar-hero-layoffs-call-of-duty-beachhead.html

Layoffs in the gaming industry have been particularly brutal.

[Pale Blue Dot]

18. Layoff announcement for HSV City Schools (200)

HUNTSVILLE, AL (WAFF) - Layoffs coming for Huntsville City Schools starting Thursday.

School board members forced to cut down a $20 million dollar debt will make cuts.

The Huntsville City School Board is expected to approve it's first round of layoffs.

This round will impact around 150 to 200 support staff employees. These are custodians, cafeteria workers, secretaries, maintenance workers, and much more.

http://www.waff.com/Global/story.asp?S=14002571

[AnneD]

62. If the budget that Gov Good Hair proposes ....

Goes through....look for massive layoffs to happen across the entire state of Texas. Government services and Education seem to be on the block. I think teachers will know after Spring Break. Teachers are having their students progress folders reviewed now. It is getting mighty ugly now. M y blood pressure shot through the roof this am and I am home right now. I am thinking it it med reactions and pressure at work. Hubby is working his last bit of OT today but we had a tough talk last night. We think he is safe (he works for the state). I might be looking though. I will wait until I find something but I think the cardboard boxes in the office should be their first clue.

I don't think I am being melodramatic in saying that if this happens here where things are going good......things are going to hell in a hand basket.

[Demeter]

19. Whoa, Doggy! Down 54 Pts at the open.

Could today be THE DAY?

[xchrom]

20. recommend

[Demeter]

21. FBI probes Chinese cyber attacks on oil groups

The US Federal Bureau of Investigation is probing a series of cyber-espionage attacks on at least five major oil, gas and petrochemical companies by hackers based in China.

The attacks, which began more than a year ago and are continuing, have succeeded in capturing sensitive financial information, including plans for bidding on drilling rights in specific fields, and production information, such as the configuration of equipment.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/EB8122/S3YQBC/GYN7Q/TPYF88/BMTP92/36/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=10

BUT WIKILEAKS HAS TOP PRIORITY!

[Demeter]

22. SEC probes ETF use in insider trading

The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether Wall Street traders are using exchange-traded funds as a means of disguising insider trading.

ETFs have emerged as a possible mechanism for maximising gains in one stock while potentially masking trading patterns, people familiar with the matter say.


Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/YIQXNN/WL9SLO/7ZY85/GKC4JZ/40FQ0R/36/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=9


THAT WOULD EXPLAIN THE REASON FOR THE EXISTENCE OF EFTS....

[Demeter]

23. US delays sale of $20bn AIG'S stock until May

The US government is planning to sell up to $20bn worth of shares in AIG in May, after giving up on attempts to begin reducing its 92 per cent stake in the insurer next month, say people close to the situation.

The news came as AIG announced a surprise $4.1bn increase in reserves against future property and casualty losses that is likely to push its 2010 results, to be revealed on February 24, into the red.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/J0VG55/IYAAMT/52KB7/TPY


THEY SHOULD SAVE THIS TURKEY FOR THANKSGIVING....OF 2020.

[Demeter]

24. Watchdog says IMF missed crisis risks

The International Monetary Fund badly missed the risks that led to the global financial crisis because of a naive admiration of light-touch US and UK financial regulation and a “groupthink” mentality, according to its watchdog.


Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/6NPSBB/BM88US/7ZY85/V1EFID/RN424E/6C/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=9



"NOBODY COULD HAVE IMAGINED..."

[Demeter]

29. Watchdog: IMF's trust in markets, regulators blocked sight of financial crisis

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/09/AR2011020906059.html

...The IMF's Independent Evaluation Office reviewed public comments and reports issued by the agency's staff between 2004 and 2007, a period when big financial firms expanded the use of complex financial investments and tethered themselves to the fate of a U.S. and European housing boom that was doomed to collapse...

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF's managing director...said some changes have already been made, including requiring his staff to conduct an analysis of all major economies - the United States, until recently, did not allow the IMF to gain access to private information about its financial system - and involving his agency in efforts by major countries to monitor each other....

...The agency at the time was going through its own crisis - cutting staff at a time when some conjectured it would become irrelevant in a crisis-free world. The IMF was formed after World War II to oversee the existing system of fixed world exchange rates, but in recent decades has evolved more into a crisis lender for distressed countries.

Successive reports from 2004 to 2007 supported the image of a healthy system, describing the world economy as "among the rosiest" in years. As late as 2008, the IMF was advising that the worst events "are behind us."

The study said the agency has tried to address some of the issues it raised. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has raised similar concerns, saying the IMF should speak more forcefully about specific country's policies.


AH TIMMY...STFU!

[Demeter]

30. IMF Auditor: Fund Failed To Sound Alarm Ahead Of Economic Crisis

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110209-713079.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

"The IMF provided few clear warnings about the risks and vulnerabilities associated with the impending crisis before its outbreak," said Moises Schwartz, director of the IMF's Independent Evaluation Office said. The 59-page report on the fund's surveillance performance from 2004-2007 said one root of the problem is, while IMF staff confidently address problems in smaller developing economies, they are fearful of challenging authorities of rich countries. The finding is a nod to many emerging-market criticisms of the fund.

....In its core mandate of surveillance, the fund didn't pay enough attention to risks of contagion or spillovers from a crisis in rich economies, such as the credit crunch that ricocheted around the world and spawned the global recession. And despite calls from board members, advanced economies weren't included in the so-called Vulnerability Exercise launched after the Asian crisis in the late 1990s....Besides boosting its surveillance of financial markets and instituting new reports that show spillover vulnerabilities, the IMF has also launched two new types of loans. Both the precautionary and the flexible credit lines are designed to lend countries funds to prevent a crisis rather than bail out economies after meltdowns....

[Demeter]

37. Reform blueprint gives G20 authority over IMF

Former policymakers urge finance ministers to form a council to take strategic decisions in resolving global issues, replacing the existing international monetary committee

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/EB8122/OJW5L4/A5Q0X/ZBJPVD/9Z1S17/D5/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=9

[Demeter]

25. Tourre to argue US cannot try him for fraud

Fabrice Tourre, the Goldman Sachs banker facing civil fraud charges over a mortgage-backed security, will next week ask a judge to dismiss the regulator’s lawsuit, arguing that US authorities cannot pursue cases involving foreign investors.

The move by Mr Tourre, who branded himself “Fabulous Fab” in boastful e-mails to girlfriends, is being opposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which filed civil fraud allegations against him and Goldman last April.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/YIQXNN/PRXM4Z/PNGIU/C58VEG/A7LJ7G/4O/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=8

[Demeter]

26. LSE in deal talks with TMX of Canada

The London Stock Exchange is in advanced merger talks with TMX Group, Canada’s largest exchange company, in the first big strategic move by Xavier Rolet, chief executive of the UK bourse The combined group, with a market capitalisation of £5.5bn, would be the world’s seventh-biggest exchange and the largest platform for mining company listings at a time of surging commodities prices

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/KC2844/263R6C/T10SH/JIA57B/QF5OJ5/YT/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=8

[Demeter]

31. Exchange tie-ups put focus on Asia

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/10/us-asx-sgx-idUSTRE7190WH20110210?pageNumber=1

A wave of stock exchange consolidation globally has thrown the spotlight on Asia's bourses, sparking a rally in shares of Australia's ASX (ASX.AX), which is trying to convince politicians to support a $7.9 billion takeover bid from Singapore Exchange (SGXL.SI).

Deutsche Boerse's (DB1Gn.DE) advanced talks to buy NYSE Euronext (NYX.N) to create the world's biggest trading powerhouse was a wake-up call for Asian bourses which face increasing competition in equity trading from new platforms.

The deal came just hours after the London Stock Exchange (LSE.L) announced a bid for Canada's TMX (X.TO)...

[Demeter]

32. German Börse in Talks to Buy the Big Board

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/nyse-euronext-and-deutsche-borse-in-merger-talks/

The New York Stock Exchange, a symbol of American capitalism for more than two centuries, may soon have new owners — in Europe.

The exchange, facing pressure from electronic upstarts that have taken business away from it, said on Wednesday that it was in advanced talks on a merger with the operator of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. A deal would create the world’s largest financial market, with a presence in 14 European countries as well as the United States.

A merger would potentially let customers trade stocks in New York, options tied to those shares in Paris and derivatives linked to them in Frankfurt...

[Demeter]

33. SO ALL THEIR MACHINES CAN SIT AND TRADE WITH EACH OTHER

[hamerfan]

41. As long as the market

Stays up, who cares? :sarcasm:

Now back to my cake. :rofl:

[Demeter]

51. Cake?

Chocolate? (mournful eyes)

[Fuddnik]

57. And you probably expect to eat it too.

[AnneD]

63. I wanted...

A pony but will settle for cake.

[Demeter]

27. Bank of England wrong to hold rates

The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee has again failed to raise interest rates. It now faces a genuine problem of credibility. Inflation has reached 3.7 per cent. IT will go above 4 per cent when the recent value added tax increase is included. Inflation expectations are now rising. The Bank has resolutely refused to put up rates, because it regards the causes as beyond its control. But this approach has more than run its course, and raising rates should be put off no longer.

The bank’s view that the causes of current inflation are not within its control cannot be true. The euro-area, which is afflicted by the same world commodity price rises, sees inflation some 1.5 per cent lower.


Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/G8OTZZ/QFKIIX/Q38E1/6V107L/M9AA3K/7V/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=10

[Demeter]

28. Deleveraging efforts have stalled too soon

Great financial crises are more often than not followed by episodes of debt reduction, or deleveraging – the proverbial hangover after the party.

When global imbalances have been a root cause of the financial disruption, that deleveraging needs to be accompanied by a rebalancing of the economies of surplus and deficit countries.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/BLH300/5C1NTP/MJTKN/HDVZWO/TPXVJE/B7/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=8

[Pale Blue Dot]

34. S&P downgrades N.J. credit rating

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Standard & Poor's lowered its credit rating on New Jersey's debt to AA- from AA, citing concerns about its massive retirement obligations.

"The lower rating reflects our concern regarding the stresses from the state's poorly funded pension system, substantial post-employment benefit obligations, and above-average debt levels," said Standard & Poor's Credit Analyst Jeffrey Panger.

The state has nearly $33 billion in debt, among the highest in the nation, according to S&P, which rates the state's outlook as stable because it believes it will "continue to manage its structural budget imbalances proactively."

New Jersey has long skimped on funding its pension, leaving it with a current unfunded liability of $54 billion.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/09/news/economy/New_Jersey_downgraded/index.htm

[xchrom]

39. you would think there would feds looking into an unfunded liability that large. nt

[Demeter]

52. Why?

Confessed war criminals walk the streets unarrested.

[Tansy_Gold]

42. My daughter and son-in-law in NJ. . . . .

They left AZ citing the crappy pay and poor benefits available to teachers here. SIL is a jr hi teacher; daughter now works for another school district. So they're both on the public schools payroll.

Considering the crappy weather back there, I'm almost tempted to ask them if they're ever almost tempted to come back here. . . . .


TG, stayin' put even if she is engaged in ANOTHER battle with Qwest that will probably result in a minor claim for damages. . . .

[AnneD]

64. I think I can answer that.......

I had to walk out of my paradise. I was getting ripped off on my salary when I lived in NM.....to the tune of 40k a year. That was 8 year ago. I regret leaving but it proved to be a wise move for me. I know retirement is a crap shoot these days but I think I did the right thing, at least I am in a better position to weather this storm than most folks.

They probaly think the same way.

[Demeter]

35. PetroChina in $5.4bn Canada gas buy

PetroChina has agreed to pay $5.4bn for a 50 per cent stake in a large natural gas field in British Columbia and Alberta owned by Encana, one of the biggest North American energy investments by a Chinese company

Read more >>

http://link.ft.com/r/CTBPCC/QFKYP4/06MUC/TPYF1M/72PJUR/E4/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=10

[xchrom]

43. wow -- those guys are buying up stakes in everything energy related. nt

[TalkingDog]

44. Calling a Top

http://www.businessinsider.com/rumor-ptj-is-calling-a-top-2011-2

We saw this weird tweet go out this morning about PTJ calling a top.

It started with Doug Kass, who tweeted:

i am hearing that hedgehogger paul tudor jones is calling for a rally in bonds and a sell off in stock now $$

It got re-tweeted like mad and now Zerohedge has noted that the market looks like Bernanke just said he thought the dollar hit a bottom.




So a tweet of a rumor about the computer run system that trades in microsecond bursts.....

Woot! Technology!

[xchrom]

46. so then what?

we magically blossom exports that sligshots the U.S. economy and we all really do get ponies?

i never know what these guys are saying.

[TalkingDog]

47. Stock market will "correct" and bonds will become more valuable

according to this guy.


How far it will go down before it stops "correcting" is the question.

No this is the opposite of jobs and ponies. It could mean that those guys end up down here in the muck with the rest of us.

[xchrom]

48. well -- if they really wind up down here -- i will welcome them with muddy, muddy hands. nt

[Festivito]

45. Debt: 02/08/2011 14,110,420,810,062.28 (UP 6,399,072,810.75) (Tue, UP a little.)

(Good day.)
Was there a battle at this creek?
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,471,150,634,328.07 + 4,639,270,175,734.21
UP 98,708,298.02 + UP 6,300,364,512.73

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,212.11 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,321,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,324.23.
A family of three owes $135,972.69. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,590,838,432.55.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,366,614,850.54.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,156,201,422.38.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 90 reports in 131 days of FY2011 averaging 6.10B$ per report, 4.19B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 712 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/08/2011 14,110,420,810,062.28 BHO (UP 3,483,543,761,149.20 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,548,797,779,170.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,529,093,048,833.84 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/19/2011 +000,009,950,983.18 ------------******
01/20/2011 -000,687,286,291.06 ---
01/21/2011 -000,057,867,302.74 ----
01/24/2011 -000,181,687,031.14 --- Mon
01/25/2011 +000,059,189,192.13 ------------*******
01/26/2011 -000,112,154,254.52 ---
01/27/2011 -004,717,116,457.79 --
01/28/2011 +002,605,585,609.92 ------------*********
01/31/2011 +072,534,426,006.14 ------------********** Mon
02/01/2011 -002,841,687,784.84 --
02/02/2011 +000,160,101,452.72 ------------********
02/03/2011 -011,756,222,449.85 -
02/04/2011 +000,096,985,369.31 ------------*******
02/07/2011 -000,024,110,721.58 ---- Mon
02/08/2011 +000,098,708,298.02 ------------*******

55,186,814,617.90 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4726665&mesg_id=4726688

[Festivito]

65. Debt: 02/09/2011 14,098,789,113,781.32 (DOWN 11,631,696,280.96) (Wed, UP a little.)

(Good day.)
The long way home.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,471,221,510,094.19 + 4,627,567,603,687.13
UP 70,875,766.12 + DOWN 11,702,572,047.08

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,212.04 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,328,992 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,285.82.
A family of three owes $135,857.46. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 3,885,510,836.32.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,978,891,641.18.
The average for the last 33 days would be 2,708,083,310.16.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 91 reports in 132 days of FY2011 averaging 5.90B$ per report, 4.07B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 711 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/09/2011 14,098,789,113,781.32 BHO (UP 3,471,912,064,868.24 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,537,166,082,889.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,485,345,607,990.19 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/20/2011 -000,687,286,291.06 ---
01/21/2011 -000,057,867,302.74 ----
01/24/2011 -000,181,687,031.14 --- Mon
01/25/2011 +000,059,189,192.13 ------------*******
01/26/2011 -000,112,154,254.52 ---
01/27/2011 -004,717,116,457.79 --
01/28/2011 +002,605,585,609.92 ------------*********
01/31/2011 +072,534,426,006.14 ------------********** Mon
02/01/2011 -002,841,687,784.84 --
02/02/2011 +000,160,101,452.72 ------------********
02/03/2011 -011,756,222,449.85 -
02/04/2011 +000,096,985,369.31 ------------*******
02/07/2011 -000,024,110,721.58 ---- Mon
02/08/2011 +000,098,708,298.02 ------------*******
02/09/2011 +000,070,875,766.12 ------------*******

55,247,739,400.84 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4727928&mesg_id=4728275

[TalkingDog]

49. Smarty Pants Prove Bankruptcy Cannot Occur

I'll tell you what, you clueless fucks, go out to a tent city and explain that to the homeless families.

The best thing about theory is, it's pretty and nobody suffers.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/exclusive-harvard-economists-prove-that-bankruptcy-is-mythical.html


The first clear consequence of the Mythical Bankruptcy Theorem (MBT) is that to the extent that the financial system has experienced problems lately, these problems have resulted from the failure of policy to ensure that the assumptions of a perfect market are realized, viz., due to regulatory and other constraints on unlimited borrowing by market participants. Important steps towards remedying these market frictions have already been taken by prudent government officials, including the removal of arbitrary barriers on the use of various types of liquidity facilities – but more remains to be done.

[Demeter]

53. That Yves! She's such a card!

Yves Smith has publicly labeled the proof ‘yet another demonstration that economics is the ugly stepsister of astrology.’

Now that you mention it, I can see the resemblance....

"Would these obscurantist ‘critics’ prefer that we simply throw away the massive human achievement that is modern theoretical economics?"

---Well, yes, that would be a good start. And then get a job in manufacturing or service economy....and try to live on its wages---

"They ask us to imagine a profit-maximizing firm, or individual trader, called X, and to consider how X will respond if faced by economic adversity. They assume, credibly, that X will be failure-averse, and so will try to avoid failure by any legal means necessary. As a result, X will borrow at the risk-free rate in order to avoid bankruptcy. Presumably the economic adversity will not last forever, and X will eventually be able to pay off his or her loan. In the case that the adversity continues, X will continue to borrow, thereby following what is in effect a martingale strategy, and never going bankrupt...."

This is from the Onion, right?

[Demeter]

54. Close!

Yves Smith says:
February 10, 2011 at 3:35 am

This is a hoax. The tipoff should have been the references to me. No one in the real world would bother singling me out as a critic of an academic paper.

[tclambert]

60. Theoretical economics is a hoax.

If you base all the theoretical calculations on absurd assumptions, you get a garbage in-garbage out situation. To begin to make economics scientific at all, you have to go to experimental economics. We've run numerous economics experiments, often unintentionally, like trying trickle-down economics, and largely ignored the experimental results. Economists act more like politicians, staking out policies they "believe" in, and cherry picking data and crazy assumptions that support their pre-concieved "theories," ignoring a whole world full of real-life data that oftentimes contradicts their theories.

[Fuddnik]

61. Economics isn't science at all.

What they're saying basically is that Greenspan, Friedman, even Krugman, have pretty much had their heads up their asses for their entire lives. At least Krugmans social commentary and observations set him apart.


http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-economist-has-no-clothes

The Economist Has No Clothes

Unscientific assumptions in economic theory are undermining efforts to solve environmental problems

By Robert Nadeau | March 25, 2008 | 77


The 19th-century creators of neoclassical economics—the theory that now serves as the basis for coordinating activities in the global market system—are credited with transforming their field into a scientific discipline. But what is not widely known is that these now legendary economists—William Stanley Jevons, Léon Walras, Maria Edgeworth and Vilfredo Pareto—developed their theories by adapting equations from 19th-century physics that eventually became obsolete. Unfortunately, it is clear that neoclassical economics has also become outdated. The theory is based on unscientific assumptions that are hindering the implementation of viable economic solutions for global warming and other menacing environmental problems.

The physical theory that the creators of neoclassical economics used as a template was conceived in response to the inability of Newtonian physics to account for the phenomena of heat, light and electricity. In 1847 German physicist Hermann von Helmholtz formulated the conservation of energy principle and postulated the existence of a field of conserved energy that fills all space and unifies these phenomena. Later in the century James Maxwell, Ludwig Boltzmann and other physicists devised better explanations for electromagnetism and thermodynamics, but in the meantime, the economists had borrowed and altered Helmholtz’s equations.

The strategy the economists used was as simple as it was absurd—they substituted economic variables for physical ones. Utility (a measure of economic well-being) took the place of energy; the sum of utility and expenditure replaced potential and kinetic energy. A number of well-known mathematicians and physicists told the economists that there was absolutely no basis for making these substitutions. But the economists ignored such criticisms and proceeded to claim that they had transformed their field of study into a rigorously mathematical scientific discipline.

(snip)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Fuddnik]

55. Except I've seen first hand, executive deliberately tank a company.

I recall watching a major steel producer do things that made absolutely no sense unless you looked at their actions, through a lens that they were deliberately trying to bankrupt the company. Sure enough, most of the executives took their golden parachutes, and pensions which were tucked away in trust funds that bankruptcy couldn't touch.

Then they bring in a clown as the new CEO, who claim to fame was running another major company into the ground. His last job was pouring a few billion dollars into a dry hole in Alaska. I guess you could say he was the George W. Bush of Alaskan oil. They paid him a million dollars to take the heat for a year, while the crooks made off with the money, and the place collapsed.

[Demeter]

56. Bernanke Says Unemployment in U.S. to `Remain Elevated' Even After Decline

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-09/bernanke-says-unemployment-in-u-s-to-remain-elevated-even-after-decline.html


....Representative Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican, pressed Bernanke to reconcile his positions that Fed monetary policy didn’t fuel a housing bubble last decade with the stance that the Fed can help home prices now with its asset purchases.

Not Responding

Home prices are not “responding at all” to the Fed’s policy, and the bubble was “far greater than could be explained” by the central bank’s interest-rate actions, Bernanke said in response....

TOO BAD OZY LOST THE MAGIC 8-BALL. UNCLE BEN COULD USE ONE....

[xchrom]

58. 'far greater than could be explained'

Why is this getting a paycheck?