STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, February 2, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, February 2, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 1, 2011

Dow 12,040.16 +148.23 (+1.23%)
Nasdaq 2,751.19 +51.11 (+1.86%)
S&P 500 1,307.59 +21.47 (+1.64%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.41 -0.02
30-Year Bond 4.59 -0.02

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Feb 02 07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 01/28 NA NA -12.9%
Feb 02 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Jan NA NA -29.0%
Feb 02 08:15 ADP Employment Change Jan 150K 145K 297K
Feb 02 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/29 NA NA 4.84M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Pale Blue Dot]

20. Announced U.S. Job Cuts Fell 46% From Year Ago, Challenger Says

Job cuts announced by U.S. employers dropped in January, indicating the slowdown in firings in the last half of 2010 is continuing this year.

Planned firings fell 46 percent to 38,519 last month from 71,482 in January 2010, according to Chicago-based Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. It marked the fewest job cuts for any January since record-keeping began in 1993. The year-over-year decrease was the biggest since August.

“What made this January figure so unusual is that it was so low,” John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement. “Even in the 1990s, when annual job cuts were relatively low, January still averaged more than 74,000 job cuts.”

While companies trim fewer workers from payrolls, they need to step up the pace of hiring to further drive consumer spending, the largest part of the economy. Federal Reserve policy makers last month pledged to continue their $600 billion stimulus as the unemployment rate holds above 9 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-02/announced-u-s-job-cuts-declined-46-from-a-year-earlier-challenger-says.html

[Demeter]

87. Death Spiral, Anyone?

[Pale Blue Dot]

23. U.S. Mortgage Applications Spike 11.3% in Late January

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 28, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 11.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 13.2 percent compared with the previous week. The previous week did not include a holiday adjustment for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

The Refinance Index increased 11.7 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9.5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 16.7 percent compared with the previous week and was 21.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

"Applications increased this week relative to the holiday week," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics. "Looking over the past two weeks, purchase applications are flat, and refinance applications are down about five percent."

http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/mortgage-bankers-association-weekly-mortgage-applications-survey-market-composite-index-mortgage-loan-application-volume-current-mortgage-rates-3842.php

[Pale Blue Dot]

24. FWIW: U.S. Jan. ADP employment up 187,000

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Private-sector employment rose 187,000 in January, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc.'s employment report released Wednesday. Employment in the service-producing sector rose 166,000, while employment in the goods-producing sector rose 21,000. For December, ADP reported that private payrolls gained 247,000, compared with a prior estimate of 297,000. On Friday, the government will report on January's nonfarm payrolls, which also include government workers, and economists polled by MarketWatch are looking for a gain of 140,000, and for the unemployment rate to rise to 9.5%. For December, the government reported that nonfarm payrolls gained 103,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 9.4%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jan-adp-employment-up-187000-2011-02-02-821250

[Demeter]

88. That and 25 cents will not get you a cup of coffee

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil hovers below $91 as US crude supplies jump

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered below $91 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as a report showed U.S. gasoline and crude supplies rose more than expected last week, suggesting the recovery in demand remains uneven.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was down 13 cents at $90.64 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.42 to settle at $90.77 a barrel on Tuesday.

In London, Brent crude fell 9 cents to $101.65 a barrel ICE Futures exchange.

The American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that gasoline inventories rose 3.9 million barrels last week while analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., had forecast an increase of 2.0 million barrels. Inventories of crude rose 3.8 barrels and distillates fell 1.1 million barrels, the API said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

3. Fed Says Banks ‘More Upbeat’ on Delinquencies in 2011

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/fed-says-u-s-banks-are-significantly-more-upbeat-on-loan-delinquencies.html

Most banks in the U.S. expect loan delinquencies and charge-off rates to improve in 2011, a Federal Reserve survey showed, as standards eased and demand increased for business lending. “Expectations were significantly more upbeat than in past years,” the central bank said today in its quarterly survey of senior loan officers. “Banks reported that they expected improvements in delinquency and charge-off rates during 2011 in every major loan category.”

An improvement in business lending may help push down an unemployment rate lingering near a 26-year high as companies borrow to expand and hire more workers. Fed policy makers led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week reaffirmed plans to pump $600 billion into the financial system, saying economic growth has been “insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions.”

“We’re starting to see loan demand turn up, and that’s a very important indication that the financial system is healing and the commercial banking system is getting stronger,” said Michael Darda, chief economist and chief market strategist for MKM Partners in Stamford, Connecticut. “When that happens you usually see a step up in job creation as well.”

Banks continued to ease standards and terms for commercial and industrial loans in the fourth quarter, the survey also showed. By contrast, changes in terms for consumer loans were “small and mixed,” it said.

[rfranklin]

4. No inflation? Wall Street Pay Rises 5.8%

On Street, Pay Vaults to Record Altitude
By AARON LUCCHETTI And STEPHEN GROCER
When it comes to paychecks, Wall Street's law of gravity is back in full force: What goes down must come back up.

In 2010, total compensation and benefits at publicly traded Wall Street banks and securities firms hit a record of $135 billion, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal. The total is up 5.7% from $128 billion in combined compensation and benefits by the same companies in 2009.

The increase was fueled by a revenue rebound as the financial crisis recedes in the rearview mirror. At 25 large financial firms that have reported full-year results, revenue rose to $417 billion, another all-time high, even though last year's 1% increase was just a fraction of the industry's revenue jolt from 2008 to 2009 as trading and investment banking sprang back to life.

"Things are shifting back to where they were before," said J. Robert Brown, a law professor at the University of Denver who studies compensation and corporate-governance issues.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704124504576118421859347048.html?mod=mktw

[Demeter]

89. Obviously Merit Raises, Based on Increased Productivity and Value Added

and yes, I have had a terrible day, thank you.

[xchrom]

5. Hope the weather isn't treating you too bad. Nt

[tclambert]

85. 5 to 9 inches in Michigan. They predicted 12 to 15.

They did over-hype it (as predicted here). Today the weatherguy with the hair sort of apologized. He said all the computer models got it wrong.

Still, 5 to 9 inches made a mess of the roads. One guy told me the snoplow went down his road way too fast. His mailbox ended up in a tree.

[Demeter]

6. Nearly 11 Percent of US Houses Empty

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41355854

America's home ownership rate, after holding steady for a while, took a pretty big plunge in Q4, from 66.9 percent to 66.5 percent. That's down from the 2004 peak of 69.2 percent and the lowest level since 1998...

More concerning than the home ownership rate is the vacancy rate. The Census tables don't tell the entire story, but they tell a lot of it. Of the nearly 131 million housing units in this country, 112.5 million are occupied. 74.8 million are owned, and that's only dropped by about 30 thousand in the past year. 38 million are rented, but that's up by over a million year over year. That means more new households are choosing to rent.

Now to vacancies. There were 18.4 million vacant homes in the U.S. in Q4 '10 (11 percent of all housing units vacant all year round), which is actually an improvement of 427,000 from a year ago, but not for the reasons you'd think.

The number of vacant homes for rent fell by 493 thousand, as rental demand rose. 471,000 homes are listed as "Held off Market" about half for temporary use, but the other half are likely foreclosures. And no, the shadow inventory isn't just 200,000, it's far higher than that.

[Demeter]

7. EU freezes assets of Tunisia's ousted President Ben Ali

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12327180

The European Union has frozen the assets of ousted Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and his wife.

The sanctions were approved by EU foreign ministers, after a request from Tunisia's new interim government.

[bread_and_roses]

8. Does anyone here have a link to a story a while back

- maybe a month or two ago? - some Banker/Financial Exec charged with something - out in the Midwest? - and let go because being jailed would "interfere with his job" ?? - I thought I'd saved it but evidently not, and can't remember enough detail to get it up on a search. Anyone know what the heck i'm talking about, since I obviously don't?

[Demeter]

10. Oh, yes, the bankster who ran the surgeon off the road, ending his career

http://dailybail.com/home/outrage-morgan-stanley-banker-escapes-felony-charges-for-hit.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/08/martin-erzinger-morgan-stanley-hit-and-run-_n_780294.html

[bread_and_roses]

12. THANK YOU! that's it (n/t)

[rfranklin]

30. Like this guy was an indispensible asset to society...

It was a "Get Out of Jail Free" card bought with big bucks. They are portraying it as he must continue working to compensate his victim. I am sure that liquidating his assets would have provided enough to take care of his victim. And bet you within a few years he finds a way to stiff the man he injured.

[Demeter]

9. Kabul Bank employees flee to Pakistan amid investigation into lending, officials say

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/31/AR2011013100915.html

The acting chief financial officer and other Pakistani employees of Kabul Bank have fled Afghanistan amid an investigation into the scope of the bank's reckless lending and allegations that its shareholders paid large bribes to many senior Afghan officials, according to Afghan officials and others familiar with the issue.

The executive, Rana Tayyab Tahir, and his colleagues in the finance department of Afghanistan's largest and most sophisticated bank fled to Pakistan on Jan. 14, a move some said was made out of fear for their lives and possible arrest in Afghanistan.

Afghan authorities have called several bank managers, including foreigners, in for questioning and detained some in southern Afghanistan's Helmand province in connection with illicit transfers of bank funds...Two bank insiders said that authorities appear to be making managers into scapegoats for the powerful shareholders who withdrew hundreds of millions from the bank for personal use.

Sherkhan Farnood, a world-class poker player who founded Kabul Bank and served as its chairman until his ouster in September, is now under effective house arrest, along with former chief executive Khalil Fruzi. Both are barred from leaving Afghanistan...But other shareholders who took out million-dollar loans, including Mahmoud Karzai, the brother of President Hamid Karzai, and Haseen Fahim, the brother of Vice President Mohammad Qasim Fahim, have been allowed to leave the country....


"TEACH....YOUR ALLIES WELL..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztVaqZajq-I

[Demeter]

11. Afghan bank’s losses could reach $900m

http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2011/01/31/afghan_banks_losses_could_reach_900m/

MOST OF THE SHAREHOLDER LOANS WENT INTO BUYING THOSE SINKING DUBAI ISLANDS, HEY THINK

[lovuian]

86. we are not obligated to cover those loans

with the debts we have
let the bank fail

[Demeter]

13. Another "Whitewash" for Wall Street By Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27388.htm

Maybe "whitewash" is too harsh of a term to apply to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission's (FCIC) report, but it certainly doesn't break any new ground. Nor does it achieve its real purpose, which is to figure out what triggered the financial meltdown and (hopefully) restore confidence in the system. It fails on both counts, and it's not hard to see why. The investigative panel was clearly instructed to point out the dangers of insufficient regulation rather than focus on the massive incidents of fraud that were perpetrated by the bankers and other financial kingpins. It's a clever way of blaming the system instead of the people who were responsible.

Here's an excerpt from the report that's been widely circulated in the media. It exposes the FCIC's real agenda and shows that the commission is little more than a cover up.

From the FCIC Report: "We conclude this financial crisis was avoidable. The crisis was the result of human action and inaction, not of Mother Nature or computer models gone haywire. The captains of finance and the public stewards of our financial system ignored warnings and failed to question, understand, and manage evolving risks within a system essential to the well-being of the American public. Theirs was a big miss, not a stumble. While the business cycle cannot be repealed, a crisis of this magnitude need not have occurred. To paraphrase Shakespeare, the fault lies not in the stars, but in us."

While this seems like an admission that crimes were committed, it's really just the opposite. The authors are saying "We're all to blame", which is pure baloney. The "captains of finance" didn't simply "ignore warnings" or "fail to question, understand, and manage evolving risks". They deliberately stole a great deal of money from a great many people. Period. That's a crime and they need to be held accountable. Unfortunately, the Commission uses the report to obfuscate the facts and confuse the public about what really needs to be done...

[mrdmk]

14. K & R

[Demeter]

15. Derivatives Plan for European Watchdog May Exceed EU’s Powers

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/derivatives-clearing-plan-for-european-regulator-may-exceed-eu-s-powers.html

...Draft rules allowing the European Securities and Markets Authority to make decisions on what types of over-the- counter derivatives should be traded through clearinghouses clashes with case law dating from 1958, according to an opinion prepared by lawyers for the EU’s governments obtained by Bloomberg News.

“A power to adopt decisions of general application cannot be conferred on an agency,” the lawyers said. It would not be possible for ESMA to rule on “clearing of classes of derivative contracts” across the EU, the legal service said.

The Group of 20 nations is seeking to curb potential risks from so called over-the-counter derivatives, which are traded directly between counterparties or via brokers. Regulators have argued that more OTC derivatives should be centrally cleared to limit the chances that a bank’s collapse during a derivatives trade could cascade throughout the financial system.

EU governments are working on how to overcome the problems posed by the legal opinion, Marton Hajdu, a spokesman for Hungary, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, said. “We are optimistic” of finding a solution, he said....

[Pale Blue Dot]

16. I got sent this last night. Perhaps one for the conspiracy minded?

Or is another bubble about to burst?

A new Chicago brokerage plans to take uncertainty out of the weather

by Brendan Wilkerson
March 11, 2010

Toward the end of October, CME Group Inc., the world’s largest derivatives marketplace, announced the introduction of four new weather products based on snowfall levels in five U.S. cities.

Most people didn’t notice. Jeff Hodgson quit his job.

From the time he was 19, Hodgson worked in the investment industry and spent years building a career around the financial markets. He worked most recently as a wealth management advisor at Merrill Lynch, where a potential client of Hodgson’s mentioned a desire to protect his business from risks associated with unexpected snowfall levels. As he explored the idea through contacts at CME and his background in financial markets, Hodgson discovered an entire industry facing weather risk without many tools to do so.

He says snow removal companies, property management firms, salt suppliers and ski resorts all represent parties with significant exposure to weather risk that could manage that risk through weather derivatives.

[Demeter]

17. Sounds like the Onion

or Wall Street quants...honestly, it's hard to tell the difference!

[Pale Blue Dot]

18. Wrong place nt

[Demeter]

19. WTO Subsidy Ruling Sets Stage for U.S. Appeal

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=comm&id=news/awx/2011/01/31/awx_01_31_2011_p0-286170.xml&headline=WTO%20Subsidy%20Ruling%20Sets%20Stage%20for%20U.S.%20Appeal

...The verdict, emanating today from Geneva, is the latest in a series of milestones in the long-running subsidy dispute between the U.S. and European Union, a dispute that kicked off when Washington challenged aid provided by European states to Airbus.

The WTO now effectively has ruled that both Airbus and Boeing have benefited from subsidies that are not compliant with existing international trade rules. The U.S. case against Europe already is in the appeals stage. Industry officials indicate they expect the U.S. to now also appeal this finding.

Both sides have charged that the other will have to take steps to remedy billions of dollars worth of subsidies, although the WTO so far has not issued any figure on the actual harm done.

But U.S. officials stress that around April, the WTO will issue its verdict on the European appeal. If the European’s lose, then that side would have 90 days to come into compliance with the WTO ruling. If Europe does not do so, the U.S. can seek penalties, although establishing their size would require a renewed appeal to the WTO...

[Demeter]

WTO finds Boeing got billions in illegal subsidies, but how many billions?

http://www.seattlepi.com/business/434449_subsidies31.html

...Airbus said the subsidies amount to at least $5 billion, plus $2 billion more pledged for the future, and cost Airbus at least $45 billion in lost sales -- much more than the impact of illegal subsidies a separate panel found that European nations gave to the European plane maker.

"From today, Boeing can no longer pretend that it doesn't benefit from generous and illegal state subsidies. It has been doing so from the start and it's time to stop the denial," Rainer Ohler, Airbus' head of Public Affairs and Communications, said in a news release. "We expect the WTO dispute to carry on for several more years and as in all trade conflicts, a resolution will only be reached through negotiations. The myth that Boeing doesn't receive government aid is over and we hope this sets the tone for balanced and productive negotiations going forward."

In a statement, EU trade spokesman John Clancy said: "This solid report sheds further light on the negative consequences for the EU industry of these U.S. subsidies and provides a timely element of balance in this long-running dispute."

But Boeing called the ruling "a sweeping rejection of the EU's claims," saying the panel found just some $2.6 billion in illegal subsidies...

[postulater]

21. With your convictions list you should add the number of jobs created by the stock market.

[AnneD]

78. The front page has enough meaty information....

no sense cluttering it up with usless information....we save that for the M$M.:eyes:

Say did you hear about Lindsey's latest tweet. :rofl:

Edited to add we are almost ready to drop the number of convictions for lack of them.:banghead:

[Fuddnik]

83. It would take a huge server just to cover lives destroyed by Wall Street.

[Demeter]

22. What kind of debt counts as debt?

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/01/fiscal_policy

HERE’S a scary statistic: if you properly account for American states' unfunded pension liabilities, you get a figure more than 4.5 times all the outstanding municipal debt. With this in mind, it seems long overdue that Moody’s will now consider pension liabilities when rating municipal debt. Moody’s will use the same liability calculations the states do. These calculations involve accounting conventions which, though perfectly legal, vastly underestimate how under-funded the pension obligations are (an 8% discount rate!!!). Even still, it's a big step in the right direction. States like Illinois may expect a downgrade.

It's a contentious issue whether or not pension liabilities should be included in state or sovereign debt measures, in addition to outstanding bonds. Despite America and Europe’s onerous entitlements, these promises are not included in their debt figures, though rating agencies claim to account for entitlements when they give sovereign debt ratings. But these promises are accounted for differently than other obligations because future entitlements are subject to revisions. Here's Moody’s, on how they factor different sources of debt into ratings:

How likely is the debt to rise abruptly due to a shock or crisis of some kind? The structure of the debt matters, especially from a liquidity risk standpoint. We attempt to differentiate between dangerous and benign debt structures. Dangerous debt structures are characterized by a lack of granularity (front-loaded debt, or a very uneven repayment schedule), and different types of indexation (to interest rates or exchange rates).

Likewise, debt can rise abruptly when, for instance, a government has to take the cost of a banking crisis onto its balance sheet. It is therefore important to assess the degree of conditionality of liabilities – actual financial debt obligations should be weighted much more heavily than contingent ones (such as the risk of a banking sector bail-out) or even more implicit, longer-term liabilities (such as unfunded pension liabilities). Indeed, contingent liabilities must be discounted by their likelihood of materialization – which is easier said than done – and future liabilities should be taken into account only in so far as we can appreciate their cash impact.

The point here is that we take into account implicit liabilities such as public pension system deficits only to the extent that they will materialize into an actual debt or payment obligation; governments have many ways to alter the net present value of pension liabilities, such as postponing retirement age, increasing contributions and lowering pensions.

ACCRUAL ACCOUNTING--THE CPAS HAVE BEEN DRUMMING IT INTO MY HEAD...

[Pale Blue Dot]

25. U.S. Stock Futures Fluctuate as Electronic Arts Gains, JDA Software Falls

U.S. stock-index futures fluctuated between gains and losses after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 12,000 for the first time since June 2008.

Electronic Arts Inc. rallied 10 percent in German trading after reporting profit that topped analysts’ estimates. Time Warner Inc. climbed 1.5 percent. JDA Software Group Inc. plummeted 11 percent after giving a lower-than-expected 2011 earnings forecast.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in March slipped less than 0.1 percent to 1,302.4 at 7:57 a.m. in New York. Dow futures rose 0.1 percent to 11,980 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures fell 0.1 percent to 2,321.

U.S. stocks climbed yesterday after American and Chinese manufacturing expanded and United Parcel Service Inc. beat analysts’ earnings estimates. The S&P 500 has rallied 2.5 percent in the past two days, erasing the Jan. 28 slump that was driven by political unrest in Egypt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-02/u-s-stock-futures-fluctuate-as-electronic-arts-gains-jda-software-falls.html

[Demeter]

26. Let Me Tell You What Happened Yesterday

Every newscarrier got 30 days' notice last month--our contracts were terminated, and we could be considered for new ones under new terms....

So I went to the "negotiations". Instead of 40 cents per copy delivered, I'm offered 22 cents, and the size of the route (number of papers and miles to drive) is doubled.

So, I can do 4 times as much work for the same amount of money, and have the added expense of buying the plastic bags.

Frankly, I doubt that it can be done. When the window is only so big, it's hard to shove double the work into it. Especially when bagging is taken into account.

Should I tell them where to shove it? And what do I do instead?

This is exactly what they paid little kids for 30-copy "walking" routes for the past umpteen years....not for carriers who have to maintain a vehicle in the face of rising gas prices.

[boomerbust]

28. And factor in

$4 a gallon gas, not good for profit margin.

[Pale Blue Dot]

31. That's sucks. :-(

And I'm sure it's indicative of what's going on everywhere.

[Ghost Dog]

36. If you have no better alternative, accept that offer

until you do.

Pragmatism always makes sense.

:(

[Demeter]

38. And Then, There's the Latest Board Tempest!

Traditionally, there has been a holiday staff dinner at a nice restaurant for the maintenance guys...all 4 of them. This year, we are up to 6 staffers, with two part-timers, who can't go because they are full-time college students and can't take the time...

This dinner, including staff and board and the outside management company, had been paid for by the outside management company, who technically employs the staff, with the money we paid them every month.

Last year we negotiated that the monthly cost of outside management be reduced 50%, based on how little they did and how poorly they did it (we're spending over $20k to fix the books, which are a shambles, thanks to the fact that they didn't know what they were doing, and didn't ask, either).

So now the outside management company wants to pay only half the cost of this year's dinner.

And the board doesn't want to pay the other half "with condo money". This is after authorizing the event, notifying all the invited, and scheduling the dinner for next Monday.

If I didn't know better, it's because some board members don't like the restaurant, which the staff preferred.....

I can't think of a stupider way to really lose face and show how unprofessional a board can be than to sit there are get all moral over a thank-you dinner that will probably be on the order of $250 and surely not exceed $500.

And consider that the board itself has put in probably 5-10 unpaid hours a month in service, taking us away from family, hearth and home, and until recently, eating Applebee's takeout....and attendance at this dinner isn't mandatory for anyone.

Neither is the dinner, but to cancel it at this late date, over so little money and absolutely no guiding principle, and considering that the guys will be getting up at 3 AM today, ad probably tomorrow, to plow and shovel for the safety, convenience, and comfort of the condo residents....it just makes for bad vibes all around, and does nothing for labor relations.

"But we gave them a pizza party last summer, which is more than most people get!"

Yup, February is here.

Well, it just puts the cherry on the sundae.

[Demeter]

27. Amazon to launch film streaming service

The online retailer is developing a film streaming service that would compete directly with Netflix, in a move that could have a big impact on the fortunes of Hollywood studios struggling to cope with declines in DVD sales

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/QM42II/LQMNG0/3CWTA/A7BR1X/D4H0D6/HK/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=2

[Demeter]

29. UPS predicts stronger US economic growth

The global logistics company reports a 48 per cent jump in quarterly profits and forecasts that full-year 2011 earnings will eclipse the previous peak in 2007

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/73UJGG/JIZJHM/1O51V/D463KL/PR7M7J/36/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=2

BECAUSE PAST RESULTS ARE SUCH A GUARANTEED PREDICTOR OF FUTURE ONES...

[Demeter]

32. Fed passes China in Treasury holdings

The Federal Reserve has surpassed China as the leading holder of US Treasury securities even though it has yet to reach the halfway mark in its latest round of quantitative easing, according to official figures.

Based on weekly data released on Thursday, the New York Fed’s holdings of Treasuries in its System Open Market Account, known as Soma, total $1,108bn, made up of bills, notes, bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or Tips.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/P75VYY/FXCY0I/PNGIU/A7BRWX/V1KDG3/50/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=1

WE'RE NUMBER ONE! WE'RE NUMBER ONE!

[Demeter]

33. Probe into $400m SEC office leasing contracts

The US Securities and Exchange Commission signed leases for $400m of office space without circulating the contract for competitive bidding, as would normally be required.

In internal papers filed to justify its decision, the SEC said the “unusual and compelling urgency” of its requirements for 900,000 sq ft of space “supports award of the lease without full and open competition”.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/V1QHWQ/CWSVD/UUIA3E/189SVV/OS/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=1

[xchrom]

37. wow -- now that is really something.

just weird how deep the corruption goes.

[Demeter]

39. Considering the real estate market today, it seems hasty

[xchrom]

41. hasty to investigate? nt

[Demeter]

43. NO, to go for a lease without a round of competitive bidding

[xchrom]

44. ah! -- it's amazing how no bid contracts have spread in government. nt

[Pale Blue Dot]

34. Egypt Shmegypt. You Can't Stop the Rally, You Can't Even Hope to Contain It

Fuck yeah was it on today as the cry of "1400 or Bust!" rang through the trading pits (and if it is Melissa Archer's bust, well, then Money McBags may have to be rooting with his shorts) like other momentous rallying cries such as "The British are coming," "Remember the Alamo," and "Who Let the Dogs Out." That's right. despite 2MM people protesting in the streets of Egypt demanding that Mubarak let their people earn dough as Egyptians have grown sick and tired of being poor, sick and tired of seeing food prices rise, and sick and tired of having to root for the Pistons (whoops, that's Detroit, but Egypt-Detroit, potato-potahto. Actually, it's probably safer to walk the streets of Cairo than Detroit and with much less hobo smell), the market rallied as if it had downed a case of Four Loko spiked with ample amounts of Red Bull and Charlie Sheen's urine.



With global unrest now a catalyst for the market to go up in the bizarro ponzeconomy™ in which we live where fundamentals have been trumped by regression analysis on historical time periods that look nothing like today's period, regularly scheduled government bond purchases inflate paper portfolios more than Timothy Geithner's ego or Lacy Banghard's bra, and crossing one's fingers and hoping it doesn't hurt is the leading investment strategy, Money McBags guesses all one can do is buy the dip, buy the rip, and buy everything with more beta than a blue chip. Just be ready to get the fuck out before the tattered curtain is peeled back exposing this run up for the Fed induced manipulation it has really been.



Anyway, other than a sovereign nation with touch points to the global energy supply imploding (though not nearly as important these touch points), macro news was rather quiet today. The ISM's manufacturing report showed that factory activity in the US rose to 60.8 last month which was up from 58.5 in December and was higher than even the highest analyst guess of 59.5 as analysts thought they were playing by the rules of The Price is Right and thus going over would cause them to lose (though what they would lose other than their credibility Money McBags doesn't know, and yes that is funny because they have no credibility). Money McBags just loves to point out when shit like this happens because in theory with 78 analysts guessing (which should be a large enough sample size), the actual number should be somewhere within the normal curve of guesses, but this result wasn't even within a fat-tailed standard deviation of the mean which means (pun intended) that those models are either fucked (and if there will be any model fucking, Money McBags hopes that Marissa Miller will be involved) or the measurement is fucked, or more likely, both. The most interesting part of the data though was that the pricing index went from 72.5 to 81.5 and it's a good thing that Bernanke said inflation is not a problem, because otherwise Money McBags would be more nervous than if he had gotten mouthy with Julie Schenecker (and yes that is sarcasm).



The only other macro news was that construction spending fell to its lowest level in a decade, and if that doesn't scream recovery then Money McBags' name isn't Money McBags (hmmmm). Construction spend fell by 2.5% which was worse than analyst guesses of a .1% rise, once again outside of the entire range of guesses, and about as healthy for the economy as a cancer sandwich with an extra topping of AIDS and Mickey Rourke's taint. While every sector was down, the biggest drop came in federal construction which fell 12% as the government moved its funds to more pertinent ventures like producing food stamps and new rims for Joe Biden's Camaro.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/egypt-shmegypt-you-cant-stop-rally-you-cant-even-hope-contain-it

[Pale Blue Dot]

35. The US Dollar is MAJOR Trouble

I've said before that the US Dollar was in BIG trouble... but as of tonight, it's on DEFCON 1 RED ALERT TROUBLE.

As the below chart shows, the greenback needs to rally and rally hard if we’re not going to head into a SERIOUS collapse shortly.



What you're looking at is the US Dollar right on its multi-year trendline. If we take this out now, then we are heading into an inflationary death spiral in very short order.

Indeed, once we take out this line, we're just a few ticks away from triggering the MASSIVE Head and Shoulders pattern the greenback has formed over the last 20 years.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-dollar-major-trouble

[Demeter]

40. It's not 2012 yet

the world can't end until then.

[Po_d Mainiac]

47. BTFD n/t

[Demeter]

42. Nouriel Roubini: Stagflationary risks rise from the Arab street

The upheaval in Tunisia and now Egypt has important economic and financial implications. About two-thirds of the world’s proven oil reserves and almost half of its gas reserves are in the Middle East; geopolitical risk in the region is thus a source of spikes in oil prices that have global consequences.

Three out of the past five global recessions have followed a Middle East geopolitical shock that led to a spike in oil prices. AND THE OTHER TWO HAVE BEEN...BANKSTER FRAUD? In the other two global recessions, oil prices also played a role. The Yom Kippur War of 1973 triggered a sharp increase that led to the global stagflation – recession cum inflation – of 1974-75. The Iranian revolution in 1979 led to a similar stagflationary rise in oil prices that triggered the 1980 recession (a double-dip recession for the US in 1980 and 1982). The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 led to a spike in oil prices at the time when the savings and loan crisis was already tipping the US into a recession; the US and most advanced economies then entered a short recession that lasted until the spring of 1991, when the war against Iraq was won. Even in the 2001 global recession – triggered by the bursting of the tech bubble – oil played a modest role as the second Palestinian intifada and broader Middle East tensions led to a modest but significant increase in prices.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/WDI4RR/D4OKXA/EKRAI/18FWAO/BMLLAJ/4O/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=1

SO NOT ONLY WILL WE GET AN OIL SHOCK, BUT THE BANKSTER FRAUD CONTINUES, AND THEN, THERE'S THE PRINTING PRESSES RUNNING AT TRIPLE SPEED, AND MAYBE ANOTHER SHOOTING WAR...

[xchrom]

45. +1 -- roubini is awesome. nt

[Roland99]

71. I think the time has come to....

wipe the slates totally clean. Every country absolves every other country of debt. We develop a world government and global currency and start wearing clothes like they did on the Starship Enterprise. :)

[AnneD]

82. Will the uniforms be mandated....

or do we get to vote.

I just discovered the People of WalMart and I am afraid, very afraid.

If the Christian Right want's to dispute the theory of evolution, they need look no further than WalMart. The gene pool looks pretty shallow on that end.

[Demeter]

90. I dont' have the figure for it anymore

Can I go Vulcan?

[Roland99]

97. But of course.

Just take it easy with that neck pinch thing!

[Fuddnik]

46. Did it snow somewhere?

Nothin' here.

I just picked about 10 big heads of cauliflower out of the garden. Ate some raw, delicious. Steamed some with a slice of velveeta on top, heavenly. Now I need to freeze some. Can I do that without snow?

Now, on to the spinach, broccoli, and swiss chard!

Snow?

[Po_d Mainiac]

48. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Demeter]

50. My sister and BIL were shovelling 3 ft of snow off the roof yesterday

in anticipation of several inches of freezing rain, which would probably collapse it. They live in MA near the NH border....

[Fuddnik]

52. I was all set to take my friend to the airport to fly into Manchester yesterday.

Just before we left, he daughter called to say that they had shut down the airport there until Friday. So, she re-booked for Friday, and now I see another storm is starting to brew in the Rockies. Should arrive there right about....Friday.

[Demeter]

49. By the Way, Folks, Happy You Know What!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLFOpQbtC5c

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujUOH9pTvIU&feature=related

[Demeter]

51. House Speaker Boehner warns against debt default

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/30/us-usa-economy-debt-idUSTRE70T2ZT20110130

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner on Sunday said that the United States must continue meeting its obligations to fund government debt or risk a global financial disaster.

With the Treasury Department rapidly coming closer to bumping up against its statutory borrowing limit of $14.3 trillion, some of Boehner's fellow Republicans in Congress have suggested that no further borrowing should be authorized until deep cuts are made in federal spending.

Boehner, interviewed on "Fox News Sunday," was asked about the impact of a government default if the limit on its borrowing authority was not raised in a timely way.

"That would be a financial disaster not only for our country, but for the worldwide economy," Boehner responded. He added, "Remember, the American people on Election Day said we want to cut spending and we want to create jobs. You can't create jobs if you default on the federal debt."

[Fuddnik]

53. Well, Boner. If we default, it's all on YOU.

Stop running off at the mouth and posturing. It's on you and Congress. It ain't like you lost your job (wishful thinking), and BoA is coming to foreclose on the Capitol.

You were offered a raise, in the form of a minimal tax increase on the rich, and you refused it you asshole. Now you want to blame someone else. That card trick's not working any more.

You seem to think that some public employees are overpaid and have too cushy of pensions. I agree. Some do. I suggest an immediate "emergency" 50% cut in congressional salaries. Go shop on the market, and pay for your own health insurance, and eliminate your blown out of proportion pensions.

Keep up the shit, and De Nile won't just be a river in Egypt any more. They'll re-name the Potomac.

[AnneD]

79. LOL LOL LOL....

you are in rare form today.

What else do you expect from the Weeper of the House.

In Texas I am required to pay a certain amount into my retirement and the school district has opted out of SS. If they renige on us, there will be guns drawn._This is, after all, Texas.

[Demeter]

54. Here's The Real Cost Of Food Inflation In America

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-us-income-groups-get-squeezed-by-food-prices-2011-2?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+clusterstock+(ClusterStock)&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher#ixzz1CoWeptgd

Take a look at the chart we’ve constructed from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics 2009 Consumer Expenditure Survey. It conveys a sense of how Egypt’s poverty combined with the sharp rise in food prices sparked the political revolt against the Mubarek government.

The chart illustrates how the lower income groups in the U.S. really get squeezed when food and gas prices rise. In the U.S. the average annual income for the consumer units (households) measured is $62,857, where food expenditures consume a little over 10 percent of income.

But averages distort the true picture of what is really going on as only 15 percent of consumer units fit into this income group. Many have drowned in pools of water where the average depth is only 11 inches deep. Almost one third of the households in the U.S. spend close to or more than 20 percent of their annual income on food.

Remember this the next time the market cheerleaders and policymakers tout core CPI and dismiss food and energy inflation. It may also help explain the rise in social angst in U.S. society.

[AnneD]

80. I saw something this weekend that scared the bejesus out of me.....

I was looking at property and was going to this mixed nice suburb. I saw someone holding a food bank sign and waving. As I turned the corner, there was a large 18 wheeler parked in a church parking lot. There was a tremendous long line of people lined up for food. This was in the suburbs, in Houston Texas, with our supposed better economy. No TV camera crew around and this did not make the 5:00 o'clock News.

It was light bulb moment.

[Demeter]

55. Bet on Foreclosure Boom Turns Sour for Investors

AS YVES SAID, COULDN'T HAPPEN TO A BETTER SET OF LOSERS

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/02/business/02stern.html?_r=1&ref=business

David J. Stern may be the best-known beneficiary of the foreclosure boom, having made millions in recent years from evictions processed by his law firm, the largest of its kind in Florida. But when he took part of his firm public early last year, he had plenty of help from a constellation of investors also looking to cash in on people losing their homes.

Early in 2010, the back-office processing operations of Mr. Stern’s law firm were converted into a publicly traded company called DJSP Enterprises. Mr. Stern pocketed nearly $60 million from that transaction, public filings show.

Behind that big-money deal was a curious cast of characters, including some with previous run-ins with regulators. Other parties included a small Wall Street investment bank headed by a former presidential candidate, the retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark, and a little-known private equity firm based in New York.

...

As the Florida attorney general’s office continues to investigate whether Mr. Stern’s law firm falsified documents in order to speed up foreclosures, the firm has lost its biggest clients, including Citibank and Fannie Mae. Many of DJSP’s executives have left the company, and it has laid off about 80 percent of its 1,200 employees...Meanwhile, investors in DJSP are not doing any better. Shares of the company, which were worth $14 apiece last summer, trade now for about 50 cents on the Nasdaq exchange...DJSP faces a lawsuit from investors who claim they were misled about its financial prospects, an accusation the company has denied. Separately, former employees of DJSP who performed back-office work related to Mr. Stern’s law firm have sued, contending that the company failed to follow federal regulations in laying them off; the company filed a motion to dismiss the claims...

[Demeter]

56. Iceland Proves Ireland Did `Wrong Things' Sacrificing Taxpayers

IN OTHER NEWS---WATER IS WET!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/iceland-proves-ireland-did-wrong-things-saving-banks-instead-of-taxpayer.html

...“Iceland did the right thing by making sure its payment systems continued to function while creditors, not the taxpayers, shouldered the losses of banks,” says Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, an economics professor at Columbia University in New York. “Ireland’s done all the wrong things, on the other hand. That’s probably the worst model.”

Ireland guaranteed all the liabilities of its banks when they ran into trouble and has been injecting capital -- 37 billion euros ($50 billion) so far -- to prop them up. That brought the country to the brink of ruin, forcing it to accept a rescue package from the European Union in December.

New Banks

Ireland’s banks had more than 10 times the assets of Iceland’s lenders, making their collapse more dangerous for the European financial system. Ireland also couldn’t devalue its currency because it is part of the euro zone. Still, countries with larger banking systems can follow Iceland’s example, says Adriaan van der Knaap, a managing director at UBS AG.

“It wouldn’t upset the financial system,” says Van der Knaap, who has advised Iceland’s bank resolution committees. “Even Irish banks aren’t too big to fail.” ...

[Demeter]

57. The Great British austerity experiment DEAN BAKER

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/feb/01/economy-economics

With deficit hawks poised in the US, we watch with great interest UK economic policy. It's not looking an enviable example so far...

Three months ago, I noted that the United States might benefit from the pain being suffered by the citizens of the United Kingdom. The reason was the new coalition government's commitment to prosperity through austerity. As predicted, this looks very much like a path to pain and stagnation, not healthy growth.

That's bad news for the citizens of the United Kingdom. They will be forced to suffer through years of unnecessarily high unemployment. They will also have to endure cutbacks in support for important public services like healthcare and education.

But the pain for the people in England could provide a useful example for the United States. After failing to see the $8tn housing bubble that wrecked the US economy, the austerity crew in the United States has been newly emboldened by the hugely partisan media that desperately want to eviscerate the country's bedrock social programmes: social security and Medicare...

DEAN BAKER IS A MUST READ

[xchrom]

64. +1

[Roland99]

70. €40 Billion Deposit Flight In December Brings Total Irish Bank Run To €110 Billion For 2010

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/%E2%82%AC40-billion-deposit-flight-december-brings-total-irish-bank-run-%E2%82%AC110-billion

No matter how hard the ECB is trying to mask the fact that the only way to rescue Europe is through yet another ponzi scheme, which has a CDO in its foundation no less, depositors refuse to be fooled. According to the ECB, in December Irish banks lost deposits worth €40.3 billion, over 50% more than November, when €26.7 billion evacuated the banking system. The brings the total deposit flight from Ireland's 15 retail banks to a massive €110 billion, a number which if indexed to the US, would be well in the trillions. And as the Independent points out, "The most dramatic element of the latest data, however, is the sharp acceleration in the fight of deposits from the so-called 'domestic group' of banks." In other words, Irish banks are likely operating on liquidity fumes, and all of their operations continue to be funded on a day to day basis by the ECB and possible the IMF. And what is even worse, is that just like in the US, Irish consumer refuse to relever: "Yesterday's figures also show another contraction in banks' lending, as loans to households fell by 5.2pc and loans to non-financial companies fell 1.2pc in the year to December."

[Festivito]

58. Debt: 01/31/2011 14,131,051,056,010.84 (UP 74,538,692,381.49) (Mon, UP big.)

(Good day.)
Well, it snowed us right out of a workplace.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,485,416,860,164.29 + 4,645,634,195,846.55
UP 72,534,426,006.14 + UP 2,004,266,375.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,212.70 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,264,192 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,398.9.
A family of three owes $136,196.69. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,039,801,776.30.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,527,861,243.41.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,414,059,267.82.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 84 reports in 123 days of FY2011 averaging 6.78B$ per report, 4.63B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 720 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/31/2011 14,131,051,056,010.84 BHO (UP 3,504,174,007,097.76 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,569,428,025,119.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,689,766,090,800.59 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/10/2011 -000,254,217,892.29 --- Mon
01/11/2011 +000,490,152,520.38 ------------********
01/12/2011 -000,273,054,954.79 ---
01/13/2011 -005,996,045,152.69 --
01/14/2011 +000,146,255,477.48 ------------********
01/18/2011 +038,613,327,669.01 ------------********** Tue
01/19/2011 +000,009,950,983.18 ------------******
01/20/2011 -000,687,286,291.06 ---
01/21/2011 -000,057,867,302.74 ----
01/24/2011 -000,181,687,031.14 --- Mon
01/25/2011 +000,059,189,192.13 ------------*******
01/26/2011 -000,112,154,254.52 ---
01/27/2011 -004,717,116,457.79 --
01/28/2011 +002,605,585,609.92 ------------*********
01/31/2011 +072,534,426,006.14 ------------********** Mon

102,179,458,121.22 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4717589&mesg_id=4717631

[Festivito]

96. Debt: 02/01/2011 14,109,842,878,903.50 (DOWN 21,208,177,107.31) (Tue, DOWN some.)

(Good day.)
The whole day off, working from home, kinda.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,482,575,172,379.45 + 4,627,267,706,524.08
DOWN 2,841,687,784.84 + DOWN 18,366,489,322.47

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,212.63 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,271,392 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,329.71.
A family of three owes $135,989.14. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,846,711,827.05.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,820,922,006.50.
The average for the last 32 days would be 2,644,614,381.09.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 85 reports in 124 days of FY2011 averaging 6.45B$ per report, 4.42B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 719 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/01/2011 14,109,842,878,903.50 BHO (UP 3,482,965,829,990.45 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,548,219,848,011.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,613,711,649,389.57 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/11/2011 +000,490,152,520.38 ------------********
01/12/2011 -000,273,054,954.79 ---
01/13/2011 -005,996,045,152.69 --
01/14/2011 +000,146,255,477.48 ------------********
01/18/2011 +038,613,327,669.01 ------------********** Tue
01/19/2011 +000,009,950,983.18 ------------******
01/20/2011 -000,687,286,291.06 ---
01/21/2011 -000,057,867,302.74 ----
01/24/2011 -000,181,687,031.14 --- Mon
01/25/2011 +000,059,189,192.13 ------------*******
01/26/2011 -000,112,154,254.52 ---
01/27/2011 -004,717,116,457.79 --
01/28/2011 +002,605,585,609.92 ------------*********
01/31/2011 +072,534,426,006.14 ------------********** Mon
02/01/2011 -002,841,687,784.84 --

99,591,988,228.67 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4718958&mesg_id=4719180

[Demeter]

59. Anonymous financial professionals online AFPO?

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/02/01/anonymous-financial-professionals-online/

One of the most exciting aspects of the financial blogosphere is that we have unprecedented levels of access to the unvarnished analysis and opinion of financial professionals, rather than always having to have those opinions filtered through the news judgment of journalists and their editors.

It’s the nature of the financial-services beast, of course, that it tends to fire employees who turn out to have been blogging anonymously — this is a very real risk, even for bloggers who are careful to cover their tracks and all anonymous bloggers are well aware of that fact. As such, most of the people who find themselves blogging anonymously are not particularly happy in their jobs and in fact might well be happier if they got fired and then found a less restrictive job.

There’s another layer of anonymous bloggers, too: people who just like a layer of privacy between their online and professional lives. If you really want to find out who they are, then you’ll probably be able to do so, but it’s much harder the other way around: if you know who they are, you’re very unlikely that you’ll find out about their secret authorship through some kind of Google search.

Finally, there are people who started off anonymous and who slowly, over time, “came out” in public to a greater or lesser extent. Rortybomb and Abnormal Returns are now completely open about their identity; Yves Smith makes little secret of hers; Calculated Risk let himself be outed by the NYT when Tanta died (and outed her at the same time)...

[Demeter]

60. Egyptians Turn To Tor To Organize Dissent Online

An anonymous reader writes:

"Even as President Obama prepares to follow Mubarak with his own 'internet kill switch', Egyptians were turning to the Tor anonymiser to organise their protests online. The number of Egyptians connecting to the internet over Tor rose more than five-fold after protests broke out last week before crashing when the Government severed links to the global internet. Information security researcher, Tor coder and writer of the bridge that allowed Egypt's citizens to short-circuit government filters, Jacob Appelbaum, told SC Magazine Egyptians were 'concerned and some understand the risk of network traffic analysis.'

Appelbaum has himself been the subject of attention from US security services who routinely snatch his electronics and search his belongings when he re-enters the country and who subpoenaed his private Twitter account last December."

Which helps explain why Appelbaum is helping to organize a small fundraiser to get more communications gear into Egypt.

http://yro.slashdot.org/story/11/02/02/0217256/Egyptians-Turn-To-Tor-To-Organize-Dissent-Online

[Demeter]

61. Land fizzing like soda pop: farmer says CO2 injected underground is leaking

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/greenpage/environment/carbon-injected-underground-now-leaking-saskatchewan-farmers-study-says-113276449.html

A Saskatchewan farm couple whose land lies over the world's largest carbon capture and storage project says greenhouse gases seeping from the soil are killing animals and sending groundwater foaming to the surface like shaken soda pop.

The gases were supposed to have been injected permanently underground.

Cameron and Jane Kerr own nine quarter-sections of land above the Weyburn oilfield in eastern Saskatchewan. They released a consultant's report Tuesday that links high concentrations of carbon dioxide in their soil to 6,000 tonnes of the gas injected underground every day by energy giant Cenovus (TSX:CVE) in an attempt to enhance oil recovery and fight climate change.

"We knew, obviously, there was something wrong," said Jane Kerr.

[Fuddnik]

63. Nobody could have ever seen that coming, could they?

In the mean time, I've got this animal laying on my feet, having methane eruptions.:puke: :wtf: :nuke:

[Demeter]

65. Are You Channeling Tansy Gold?

Hope she's not snowed in....

[Fuddnik]

67. Nobody can channel Tansy Gold.

She's a sick, twisted individual, but we love her!

:hi:

[Demeter]

92. She's Also MIA

[Pale Blue Dot]

62. Huffington Post Mortgage Meetup Madness

Happening in 740 communities Feb 8, 2011

Get together face-to-face with other Huffington Post readers who want to discuss the mortgage mess. Share stories, frustrations, and tips over coffee or drinks.

http://www.meetup.com/HuffingtonPost/

[Demeter]

66. Sorry, Guys. Can't take any more of it

Gonna go out and shovel some of my frustrations away. See you later...tonight maybe, or tomorrow.

[Hotler]

68. k&r n/t

[Pale Blue Dot]

69. Chris Martenson makes the strong case that the rise in the stock market is due to QE2 EXCLUSIVELY

Over a 36 week period spanning from May 2010 to the end of January 2011, there was only one instance of 'investors' putting more money into stock mutual funds than they withdrew, and that one ,outlier was well under a billion dollars. Over that 36 week period, over $100 billion was removed from the markets by investors. Even when money started moving back in over the past two weeks, I want you to note the scale; the combined total is $6.7 billion. Keep that figure in mind.

Instead, we should first focus on the massive injections of raw, potent, thin-air money (a.k.a. "credit easing") by the Fed into the financial system. Sometimes this is referred to as "liquidity," which it is. But that's too narrow a definition, because it is much more; it also happens to be high-powered base money (a.k.a. 'Wall Street rocket fuel').

...

As an aside, I used to track the Fed's thin-air money programs very closely, and if you had told me as recently as three years ago that the Fed would have been running 11-figure POMO operations each and every month, I would have told you it was unthinkably impossible. But here we are, that is exactly what is happening, and I am largely numb to the process, which worries me somewhat, as it means that my baseline has shifted.

At any rate, the point here is that from those August lows to now, retail investors have taken out far more money from the stock market than they've placed back in; a total of around minus $38 billion.

But over that same period, the Fed has placed nearly an entire order-of-magnitude more thin-air money, some $350 billion dollars, into the hands of financial institutions, some of whom consider the stock market their personal playground.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chris-martenson-answers-how-long-party-stocks-can-last

The entire article, loaded with excellent charts and graphs, is well worth a read.

[xchrom]

73. +1

[Fuddnik]

93. Wow!

[Pale Blue Dot]

72. Ok, fellow "doom & gloomers": I'm convinced we're in the endgame. How long do we have?

I have always speculated, based on little but my intuition, that the whole thing collapses in March. What say you, and why?

And of course, if you're more of the optimistic sort, please feel free to explain why I shouldn't be so worried. :-)

[xchrom]

74. kick -- i'm not knowledgable enough to say. nt

[Fuddnik]

75. It depends.

Did the groundhog see his shadow today?

I'm convinced the repukes are going to unwittingly torpedo the whole thing by April. They're hell bent on screwing every non-wealthy American. And, they have a lot of allies on the other side of the aisle as well.

There is an illusion of recovery right now. Unfortunately, we have the clueless trying to lead the blind. A 9% U-3 index is not the "new normal", it's devastating, and a ticking time bomb. That's just too much money NOT flowing into the economy. It can't last much longer. We've just started seeing the 99ers start to lose benefits. More are coming every week.

No money, no customers, no sales, no jobs, no expansion. States and cities are just about to the point of no return.

[DemReadingDU]

94. Our electric has been out for 21 hours

Huge ice storm.
It felt like a collapse without the Internet today. :(


But we had plenty of batteries for the flashlights, gas logs in the fireplace for a bit of heat, gas-fired water heater for showers, and extra food to eat. Spouse was driving 4-wheel-drive truck to bring things to the neighbors. Still, this was only a 'test' for the big boom. At some point, the life we have become accustomed will be unsustainable.

I think much depends on the direction of Egypt, if the protests spread to Saudi Arabia which would spike the cost of oil and gasoline, which could cause much angst for us Americans.

Possibly another country needs money, and doesn't get the bailout which cause financial panic and freeze of banks.

In America, though, we will continue business as usual, we will be told nothing, there will be no austerity measures, the propaganda will keep talking recovery, until the collapse. And we are all going to be SHOCKED that our leaders couldn't have foreseen it coming.

But collapse is coming, but I have no idea when the global implosion will occur. I thought it would have occurred in Oct 2008. So yeh, the collapse could come in March, or later this year, or next year. It's anybody's guess.

[Fuddnik]

95. Glad to hear you're coping.

Stay warm and safe.

[Pale Blue Dot]

76. Prince George's schools may cut 1,132 jobs, enlarge classes

Prince George's School Superintendent William R. Hite Jr. has proposed cutting more than 1,100 jobs, paring back kindergarten programs and increasing some class sizes to close a major budget shortfall.

The cuts are more severe than what Hite proposed just seven weeks ago, when he presented a budget for fiscal 2012 that would freeze pay and eliminate middle school sports while also cutting hundreds of jobs.

Since then, state officials have proposed lower local school funding levels than Hite expected. The budget he proposed Tuesday night includes nearly all of his previous cuts and many new ones, with the goal of saving $155 million and bringing the bottom line to $1.6 billion.

"We are looking to continue the academic progress that we have made over the past several years," Hite said at a news conference. "We're also looking to protect, as much as we can, classrooms and schools. However, we know this is going to be a painful process."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/01/AR2011020105384.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

84. LBUSD Ax Chops 429 (teachers), Closes Two (schools)

The 429 teachers who are losing their jobs will receive pink slips in March based on seniority. Additionally, the board will consider more layoffs, in teaching and non-teaching positions, at its next meeting on Feb. 15. Librarians, school nurses, campus security officers and assistant principals are just a few on the chopping block.

Board President Felton Williams said the decision to lay off employees is never easy, adding that his daughter, a school counselor, lost her job last year because of budget reductions.

“These are tough decisions that have to be made to help this district move forward,” he said.

The teacher layoffs will result in a 30-to-1 ratio of students to teachers in kindergarten through third grade classrooms and a 35-to-1 teacher-to-student ratio in the sixth through 12th grades.

http://www.gazettes.com/news/education/article_86ff4c0e-2f04-11e0-ac8e-001cc4c03286.html

Bold is mine. As a teacher of 6th and 7th graders I know that a 35-1 ratio is next to impossible. I feel for both the teachers who will lose their jobs and for the ones left behind.

[CRH]

77. Bill Gross (PIMCO) chastens politicians, central bankers, and financial managers.

Bill Gross of PIMCO has chastened the President, congress, central bankers, financial managers, the government CPI and more, in a conference at Treasury ...

~~ full article at link ~~

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41387362

~~ snip ~~

Gross also takes central bankers to task for 30 years of currency devaluation used to mask reckless spending and burgeoning debts and deficits.

He outlines four strategies “devils” at central banks use to escape from deficit-laden balance sheets: Giving “haircuts” to bond holders in the form of lost principal on government debt; devaluing currency to cheapen exports; using CPI numbers that help mask the real levels of inflation; and imposing negative real interest rates and penalizing savers, pension funds and insurance companies with returns lower than inflation.

~~ snip ~~

And of his own profession he adds ...

As a profession we have failed miserably at our primary function—the efficient and productive allocation of capital: The S&L debacle of the early 1980s, the Asian crisis, LTCM, dotcoms, subprimes, Lehman and the resurrection, instead of the reformation, of Wall Street, are major sins of the modern era of money. Hang your heads, moneychangers. And no, it is not yet time to move on, as many banking CEOs suggest. How can bond traders make ten, one hundred, one thousand times more money than an engineer or social worker given their dismal historical performance? Why is it that some of today’s doctors are using food stamps while investment banking executives complain about millions of dollars in compensation that might be deferred in case of a future bailout?

~~ snip ~~

He talks more about maturity extension, safe spreads, and bond markets strategies that need to be 'exorcized' from model portfolios, in favor of better risk/reward alternatives.

[hamerfan]

81. K&R!

Hi everybody!
My computer problems are all over. I hope to be here quite a bit more often than I have the past month or so.
Great job, PBD. Welcome, Fuddnik. Hi to everyone.
DOW 30,000, here we come. :sarcasm:
hamerfan

[Demeter]

91. 3000? Sounds a Little High