STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, January 11, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, January 11, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 10, 2011

Dow 11,637.45 -37.31 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,707.80 +4.63 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,269.75 -1.75 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.29 +0.02 (+0.30%)
30-Year Bond 4.47 +0.05 (+0.16%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Report

Jan 11 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Nov 1.0% 1.0% 1.9%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil hovers above $89 as traders eye Alaska leak

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $89 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as traders eyed repairs on a shutdown Alaskan pipeline that has cut crude production from the biggest U.S. state.

Benchmark oil for February delivery fell 4 cents to $89.21 a barrel late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract climbed $1.22 to settle at $89.25 on Monday on news a 800-mile (1,300-kilometer) trans-Alaska pipeline, which normally carries between 620,000 barrels a day, was shut Saturday after a leak was discovered at a North Slope pump station. Oil production on the North Slope was cut by 95 percent.

Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., which operates the pipeline from Prudhoe Bay, said Monday it had welders working around the clock on a bypass line to circumvent the leak and restore the flow of oil, though no restart date was given.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[tclambert]

55. Oil above $91 now.

If I were an evil oil company executive (sorry for being repetitious), I would be sorely tempted to engineer incidents like a leaky pipeline, the occasional refinery accident, or deep sea oil rig malfunction just to goose the price of oil. Somebody should keep them under surveillance.

[tclambert]

57. Silver is up about 2.3% today, but down about 4% from its recent high.

Silver hit $30.70/oz. in late December. Somebody predicted it would hit $50 this year. I still don't know why silver should be so special, and not gold, platinum, or . . . um, neodymium. (We need neodynium for powerful magnets, like in electric car motors.)

[tclambert]

59. Sadly, you can't really invest in neodymium.

Right now, the Chinese produce 98% of it. A company called Mountain Pass used to produce it in the US. Chevron Oil bought that mining company, and stopped the neodymium production in 1994. They intend to start it back up, reaching full production in 2012 or 2013. The profits from neodymium could potentially add .000000001% to Chevron's revenues. (All right, I made that up, but I bet it's close.)

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. Portuguese Bond Sale May Make Bailout `Inevitable'

Portuguese yields may be rising to levels that force the nation to follow Greece and Ireland in requesting a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to avert default.

The nation plans a 10-year sale tomorrow, the first bond auction by any of the euro region’s most indebted countries this year. Its existing 10-year debt has yielded more than 7 percent in 10 of the past 62 days, according to Bloomberg data. Greece needed a rescue within 17 days of its 10-year yield breaching 7 percent on April 6, while Ireland lasted less than a month after it cracked that level in October.

“Even if we see a successful auction, it doesn’t mean anything, because at rates above 7 percent it’s not sustainable,” said Ioannis Sokos, a strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “It is inevitable that Portugal has to turn to the EU and IMF if they keep borrowing at these levels.”

The cost of insuring European sovereign debt has climbed to a record on concern backstopping the region’s banks will overwhelm government finances. Countries including Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Germany are preparing bond and bill sales worth as much as 42 billion euros ($54 billion) this week. Portugal’s six-month borrowing cost jumped to 3.686 percent at a bill sale last week, up from 2.045 percent in September.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-11/portuguese-bond-buyers-set-to-demand-unsustainable-yields-euro-credit.html

[florida08]

4. editorial graphic says it all

K&R

[Festivito]

5. Debt: 01/07/2011 14,009,422,364,546.03 (DOWN 2,370,806,435.69) (Fri, UP a little.)

(Good day.)
Night until Morning. Feel well Linda.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,383,237,402,043.07 + 4,626,184,962,502.96
UP 22,074,863.06 + DOWN 2,392,881,298.75

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,214.49 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,091,392 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,033.14.
A family of three owes $135,099.42. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 7,122,168,752.02.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,697,735,001.61.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,513,937,098.34.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 69 reports in 99 days of FY2011 averaging 6.49B$ per report, 4.52B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 744 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.0 and 18.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/07/2011 14,009,422,364,546.03 BHO (UP 3,382,545,315,632.95 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,447,799,333,654.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,650,977,341,250.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/20/2010 -000,083,147,973.47 ---- Mon
12/21/2010 +000,210,432,562.88 ------------********
12/22/2010 +000,569,620,034.56 ------------********
12/23/2010 +001,962,709,844.10 ------------*********
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******
12/31/2010 +062,732,309,679.32 ------------**********
01/03/2011 -005,396,108,430.64 -- Mon
01/04/2011 -000,085,302,113.98 ----
01/05/2011 -000,029,576,179.10 ----
01/06/2011 -001,749,774,139.62 --
01/07/2011 +000,022,074,863.06 ------------*******

59,474,747,427.31 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4690752&mesg_id=4690763

[Festivito]

60. Debt: 01/10/2011 14,014,345,009,018.63 (UP 4,922,644,472.60) (Mon, DOWN a little.)

(Good day.)
Switching day and night.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,382,983,184,150.78 + 4,631,361,824,867.85
DOWN 254,217,892.29 + UP 5,176,862,364.89

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,214.27 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,112,992 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,045.84.
A family of three owes $135,137.51. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,620,875,360.98.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,588,641,931.38.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,408,363,159.40.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 70 reports in 102 days of FY2011 averaging 6.47B$ per report, 4.44B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 741 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.0 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/10/2011 14,014,345,009,018.63 BHO (UP 3,387,467,960,105.55 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,452,721,978,126.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,620,034,529,571.75 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/21/2010 +000,210,432,562.88 ------------********
12/22/2010 +000,569,620,034.56 ------------********
12/23/2010 +001,962,709,844.10 ------------*********
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******
12/31/2010 +062,732,309,679.32 ------------**********
01/03/2011 -005,396,108,430.64 -- Mon
01/04/2011 -000,085,302,113.98 ----
01/05/2011 -000,029,576,179.10 ----
01/06/2011 -001,749,774,139.62 --
01/07/2011 +000,022,074,863.06 ------------*******
01/10/2011 -000,254,217,892.29 --- Mon

59,303,677,508.49 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4692181&mesg_id=4692206

[Pale Blue Dot]

6. U.S. Index Futures Climb; Hewlett-Packard, Nvidia Gain as Alcoa Declines

U.S. stock-index futures advanced, indicating that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may end three days of declines, after Japan pledged to buy euro-area bonds.

Hewlett-Packard Co. rose 1.1 percent in German trading as UBS AG recommended buying the shares of the world’s largest computer maker. Nvidia Corp. surged 5.5 percent after Intel Corp. and the maker of graphics semiconductors renewed a long- term cross-license agreement. Alcoa Inc. dropped 0.9 percent after sales missed analysts’ estimates and Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said he predicts slower growth in demand for the metal in China.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in March rose 0.2 percent to 1,268 at 11:06 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advanced 0.3 percent to 11,616, and Nasdaq-100 Index futures increased 0.3 percent to 2,288.25.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-11/u-s-index-futures-climb-hewlett-packard-nvidia-gain-as-alcoa-declines.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

7. Storm Cancels Flights Across South, Aims for New York

The New York City area may receive 6 to 12 inches of snow from a storm that has crippled air traffic in Atlanta and prompted officials across the South to urge people to stay off the roads.

Delta Air Lines Inc. and AirTran Holdings Inc. canceled most of their flights to and from Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International, the world’s busiest airport, after 6 inches (15 centimeters) of snow blanketed the area overnight.

That system will combine with another by tomorrow and move up the East Coast with heavy snow that will disrupt travel, said Allan Huffman, a meteorologist for AirDat LLC in North Carolina, which installs weather-gathering sensors on commercial aircraft.

“I would expect travel to be difficult up and down the East Coast for the next two or three days,” said Meredith Croke, also a meteorologist for AirDat. “Atlanta is a mess right now because they are not used to handling snow.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-10/northeast-u-s-may-get-as-much-as-a-foot-of-snow-as-south-tries-to-dig-out.html

Of course this will have serious implications for our economy - but for me it mainly means SNOW DAY!!!! :D

[Pale Blue Dot]

8. Downturn's Ugly Trademark: Steep, Lasting Drop in Wages

They are among the lucky. There are 14.5 million people on the unemployment rolls, including 6.4 million who have been jobless for more than six months.

But the decline in their fortunes points to a signature outcome of the long downturn in the labor market. Even at times of high unemployment in the past, wages have been very slow to fall; economists describe them as "sticky." To an extent rarely seen in recessions since the Great Depression, wages for a swath of the labor force this time have taken a sharp and swift fall.

The only other downturn since the Depression to see similarly large wage cuts was the 1981-82 recession. But the latest downturn is already eclipsing that one. Unemployment has stood above 9% for 20 straight months—longer than the early 1980s stretch—and is likely to remain above that level for most of 2011, putting downward pressure on wages.

Many laid-off workers who have found new jobs are taking pay cuts or settling for part-time work when they get new ones, sometimes taking jobs far below their skill levels.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304248704575574213897770830.html

[Loge23]

11. Meanwhile, in an alternate universe...

Also from the WSJ today:
Chief Squid, Blankfein, of Goldman Sachs will release a report that will show the Great Vampire Squid is actually a mild-mannered, well-behaved sponge who lives and works in very happy place.

Elsewhere on our "preferred" planet (citizens hold the coveted black passports here), we have over-priced blue box retailer, Tiffany, coming in with record earnings! Who knew?!

What?? You didn't give/get Tiffany's this year???
"Not that you need evidence that the high end has come back faster than the low end..."
http://www.businessinsider.com/tiffanys-earnings-2011-1

Yikes, click through the "Click here to see 30 statistics...." to learn more about this wonderful alternate universe!

You will excuse me now, I have to change the mop water.

[Po_d Mainiac]

46. No life left after Black-Friday?

But Talbots said that while it had "solid" sales during the busy shopping weekend after Thanksgiving, sales deteriorated in the last two weeks of December into January, despite aggressive markdowns by the retailer.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Talbots-cuts-outlook-again-apf-3335028843.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

[Loge23]

48. Talbots caught in a marketing vacuum

I think they've become a sort of prisoner of their marketing. They need a major image change.
They're probably getting squeezed by Chico's, Limited, etc. for the same customers.

[Tansy_Gold]

14. K&R for this bitter reality alone

Those who jump up and down at the announcements of "job creation" seem to think all those new jobs are just like the old jobs. They aren't.




TG, TT

[Hissyspit]

9. Great Toles cartoon. nt

[Demeter]

10. Why Is The US Taxpayer Subsidizing Facebook – And The Next Bubble?

http://baselinescenario.com/2011/01/06/why-is-the-us-taxpayer-subsidizing-facebook-%E2%80%93-and-the-next-bubble/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BaselineScenario+%28The+Baseline+Scenario%29

Goldman Sachs is investing $450 million of its own money in Facebook, at a valuation that implies the social networking company is now worth $50 billion. Goldman is also apparently launching a fund that will bring its own high net worth clients in as investors for Facebook.

On the face of it, this might just seem like the financial sector doing what it is supposed to – channeling funds into productive enterprise. The SEC is apparently looking at the way private investors will be involved, but there are some more deeply unsettling factors at work here.

Remember that Goldman Sachs is now a bank holding company – a status it received in September 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, in order to avoid collapse (for the details, see Andrew Ross Sorkin’s blow-by-blow account in Too Big To Fail.) This means that it has essentially unfettered access to the Federal Reserve’s discount window, i.e., it can borrow against all kinds of assets in its portfolio, effective ensuring it has government-provided liquidity at any time.

Any financial institution with such access to such government support is likely to take on excessive risk – this is the heart of what is commonly referred to as the problem of “moral hazard.” If you are fully insured against adverse events, you will be less careful...

[Celebration]

12. Good catch. Please make it separate thread

And I will recommend.

[Tansy_Gold]

16. Me,too. n/t

[Demeter]

41. DONE

[Demeter]

13. The NYT Disagrees with Economists: Claims There are Too Many Lawyers

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/the-nyt-disagrees-with-economists-claims-there-are-too-many-lawyers

Most of the thousands of economists gathered this weekend at the annual convention of the American Economics Association in Denver would probably agree with MIT economist David Autor, that the big problem facing the U.S. labor market is that our workforce is not being adequately educated. Autor claims that most of the new jobs that are being created are at the top and the bottom of the skills level. His recipe is to have more people go to college and earn advance degrees.

By contrast, the NYT devoted a lengthy article to tell readers about the dismal job market facing young lawyers. It reports that many recent graduates of law schools that are below the top tier can only find very low paying legal jobs, if they find any within the professional at all.

It is worth noting that if Autor is right, then the NYT has seriously misrepresented the state of the legal market. Alternatively, the economy could simply be suffering from a situation in which there are too few jobs in total. This would mean that the fundamental problem is not the skills of the workforce but rather the skills of the people designing economic policy.

[Demeter]

15. Gene Sperling Thinks Asset Bubbles Are Cool

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/gene-sperling-thinks-asset-bubbles-are-cool

I will depart from my policy of not commenting on articles where I am mentioned to clarify the issues (to me) surrounding Gene Sperling's selection as a President Obama's national economic advisor. The primary issue is not that Sperling got $900,000 from Goldman Sachs for part-time work, although that does look bad. The primary issue is that Sperling thought, and may still think, that the policies that laid the basis for the economic collapse were just fine.

Sperling saw nothing wrong with the stock market bubble that laid the basis for the 2001 recession. The economy did not begin to create jobs again until two and a half years after the beginning of this recession and even then it was only due to the growth of the housing bubble. Gene Sperling also saw nothing wrong with the growth of that bubble. Gene Sperling also saw nothing wrong with the financial deregulation of the Clinton years which, by the way, helped make Goldman Sachs lots of money. And, he saw nothing wrong with the over-valued dollar which gave the United States an enormous trade deficit. This trade deficit undermined the bargaining power of manufacturing workers and helped to redistribute income upward.

In short, Sperling has a horrible track record of supporting policies that were bad for the country and good for Wall Street. This track record is far more important than his $900,000 consulting fee in providing my basis for objecting to Sperling's appointment. It is remarkable that it was not mentioned in this article.

[Tansy_Gold]

17. This one needs its own thread too.

I'm not gonna get anything done today, Demeter. I'm gonna be busy reading all the "good" stuff you're posting!

:hi:



TG, TT

[DemReadingDU]

32. not gonna get anything done today

me either
lots of good articles to read

[Demeter]

42. ALSO DONE

[kickysnana]

54. Turns out my Aunt now needs a lawyer to fight for PCA hours...

Ucare has one. Ramsey Co HS has one. She only has her sweet voice on a telephone.

[Demeter]

18. The Federal Reserve's Exit Strategy: Unlegislated Bailout of Fannie and Freddie

THIS IS FROM LAST YEAR--BUT NO LESS RELEVANT

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100216.htm

We do not expect to operate profitably in the foreseeable future"

- Fannie Mae, September 30, 2009 Quarterly 10Q Report

“At the time the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship in September 2008, Treasury established Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPAs) to ensure that each firm maintained a positive net worth. Treasury is now amending the PSPAs to allow the cap on Treasury's funding commitment under these agreements to increase as necessary to accommodate any cumulative reduction in net worth over the next three years.”

Treasury Update on Status of Support for Housing Programs, December 24, 2009

"All told, the Federal Reserve purchased $300 billion of Treasury securities and currently anticipates concluding purchases of $1.25 trillion of agency MBS and about $175 billion of agency debt securities at the end of March. I currently do not anticipate that the Federal Reserve will sell any of its security holdings in the near term. However, to help reduce the size of our balance sheet and the quantity of reserves, we are allowing agency debt and MBS to run off as they mature or are prepaid. In the long run, the Federal Reserve anticipates that its balance sheet will shrink toward more historically normal levels and that most or all of its security holdings will be Treasury securities."

- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, "Federal Reserve's Exit Strategy"
Testimony to House Financial Services Committee, February 10, 2010

Let's put two and two together here. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are already insolvent, and face "significant negative impact" on their net worth resulting from the required consolidation of "off balance sheet" loans into their financial reporting, which will take effect in financial statements for periods beginning January 1, 2010. Over 60% of the U.S. foreclosure market now falls under the umbrella of these two entities.

Under the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA), Congress authorized the Treasury to provide sufficient funding to insure up to $300 billion dollars of original principal. Yet in a move that was clearly no part of Congressional intent, the Treasury has announced that it will allow this commitment to "increase as necessary to accommodate any cumulative reduction in net worth over the next three years." Coincident with this, the Federal Reserve has accumulated nearly $1.5 trillion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities (MBS and agency debt), which is has no plan to liquidate other than lip service. Rather, it is allowing these securities to run off through maturity and pre-payment. Of course, the funds to pay off those maturing securities will largely come from the Treasury. Meanwhile, Bernanke has made it clear that the most important tool of the Fed during the interim will not be liquidation of these securities, but instead the payment of interest on bank reserves.

If one is alert, it is evident that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury have disposed of the need for Congressional approval, and have engineered a de facto bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, at public expense.

[Demeter]

19. THE STORY OF MY LIFE--THANKS, DILBERT!

[Demeter]

20. ECB intervenes as debt crisis deepens

The European Central Bank intervenes to prop up eurozone bond markets amid fears Portugal is edging closer to an international bail-out. Attention also turning to Belgium

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/QM42II/721SCA/JQU4J/HDCKDU/YHDVEM/XL/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=11

[Demeter]

21. Tunisia shuts schools indefinitely after riots

The government has ordered all schools and universities closed indefinitely in response to a month-long wave of rioting over unemployment dubbed the ‘Jasmine revolt’

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/QM42II/721SCA/JQU4J/HDCKDU/26Q7JQ/XL/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=11

[Demeter]

22. Global accord targets credit bubbles

Regulators have taken a major step towards harmonised global regulation by agreeing to raise worldwide capital requirements whenever a country declares a credit bubble

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/QM42II/721SCA/JQU4J/HDCKDU/6VRW3D/XL/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=11

[Demeter]

23. Chinese city allows personal investing abroad

Wenzhou has launched a pilot project allowing individuals to invest directly overseas in a move that could signal greater opening of the country’s capital account

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/QM42II/721SCA/JQU4J/HDCKDU/18EZSI/XL/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=11

[Demeter]

24. Deal flurry as new year M&A hits $83bn

A flurry of dealmaking by companies on both sides of the Atlantic has given the year the busiest start for mergers and acquisitions activity for a decade

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/H60H77/GK01VG/OFBYP/A7HZK0/S3MGCP/ZH/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=11

HERE WE GO AGAIN!

[Demeter]

25. Goldman ramps up oversight process, Goldman revamps reporting structure

Goldman Sachs has moved to address criticisms that it put its interests ahead of its clients’, introducing a new financial-reporting structure and dozens of other changes to the way it deals with customers, counterparties and investors, according to an internal report.

The 39 recommendations, presented to Goldman’s 400-plus partners on Monday following an eight-month review, come as the bank seeks to repair its reputation after bruising encounters with regulators and government officials. Amid mounting public scrutiny, Goldman formed a business-standards committee in May.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/A1TNOO/WLE7QS/7ZY85/QF4JKY/PRATF3/MQ/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=10


Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/H60H77/GK01VG/OFBYP/A7HZK0/YHDVM8/ZH/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=11

[Demeter]

29. Jim O'Neill: 2011 - Year of the US comeback

For many of the past few years, including preceding the global credit crisis, I shared the worry of many others about the sustainability of the US economy. But my hunch for the surprise of 2011 is that the US will positively shake people up, writes Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs Asset Management

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/2SRI11/UUYA7D/YGZ3O/72UO77/RN7HQW/E4/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=10

WE'RE FREAKING DOOMED!

[Hotler]

26. k & r n't

[Demeter]

27. Morgan Stanley to spin off its last big prop trading desk

Morgan Stanley agreed to spin off its last big proprietary trading desk by 2012 in a move that brings it a step closer to meeting new US rules on banks betting their own capital

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/H60H77/GK01VG/OFBYP/A7HZK0/C51ERK/ZH/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=11

[Demeter]

31. More Goldman traders to exit for funds

The last big proprietary trading team at Goldman Sachs has begun raising money to start a new hedge fund independent of the bank, for launch in the second quarter of this year

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/0QSDPP/18RWVT/EKRAI/5C3GMT/IY8961/GX/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=10


More Goldman traders to exit for funds
The last big proprietary trading team at Goldman Sachs has begun raising money to start a new hedge fund independent of the bank, for launch in the second quarter of this year.

The team – led by two senior members of Goldman Sachs’ Principal Strategies desk, Daniele Benatoff and Ariel Roskishas – has already secured a $300m investment from one of Europe’s biggest hedge funds, Brummer & Partners, people familiar with the team’s plans said.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/CTBPCC/IYVPT9/3CWTA/3OFTQS/3O9VFW/4O/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=9

[Demeter]

28. Fund employees charged by SEC

The Securities and Exchange Commission has filed civil charges against the co-founder of hedge fund Trivium Capital Management and three others, accusing them of trading on inside information concerning Google and other stocks as part of its ongoing investigation into Galleon Group

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/H60H77/GK01VG/OFBYP/A7HZK0/3O9MKM/ZH/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=11

WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO GET A BANKSTER ARRESTED AROUND HERE? CONSIDER WHAT HAPPENED TO POOR MARTHA STEWART!

[xchrom]

34. she was definetly a target of some sort.

and banksters? -- we would have to become a nation of laws again for that to happen.

[Demeter]

30. US banks face fresh stress tests

Large US financial groups are bracing for a new battery of stress tests that will determine which institutions are now healthy enough to raise dividends and buy back shares.

The Federal Reserve is expected this week to begin examining data provided by 19 groups, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, to gauge how their balance sheets would withstand a variety of new economic and financial shocks.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/J0VG55/6VUDSV/YGZ3O/JIV4W2/FXHYOY/50/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=9


Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/0QSDPP/18RWVT/EKRAI/5C3GMT/QFZU7Y/GX/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=10

MORE KABUKI, MORE BRIBES, MORE CORRUPTION

[Demeter]

33. New taxes to slash European bank profits

Some of Europe’s biggest banks could see as much as a quarter of profits wiped out by the combined impact of 10 new levies in different countries across the continent

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/0QSDPP/18RWVT/EKRAI/5C3GMT/3O92S3/GX/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=10

EUROPE'S GOT A BETTER IDEA--THEY OUGHT TO RETURN SOME OF THAT REVENUE TO US FOR BAILING OUT THEIR BANKS...

[xchrom]

35. recommend

[Demeter]

36. Inflation fears put investors on the defensive

Inflationary pressures are building around the world, posing a dilemma for investors and prompting an increase in demand for bonds that offer protection against rising prices

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/0QSDPP/18RWVT/EKRAI/5C3GMT/HDGQ8C/GX/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=10

[Demeter]

37. Quantitative easing is working says Fed REJOICE!

Inflation is a percentage point higher and there will be 3m more jobs in 2012 because of the US Federal Reserve’s programme of asset purchases, Fed vice chair Janet Yellen said on Saturday, drawing on new work by Fed researchers


Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/G8OTZZ/EW6F7V/K91WR/GKOMEQ/NSVNU4/AZ/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=10

AGAIN, WE ARE FREAKING DOOMED

[Demeter]

38. Business links allow Daley to fit in

The former JPMorgan chief lobbyist, who was named President Obama’s chief of staff, is expected to help ease Washington’s sometimes strained ties with the private sector

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/G8OTZZ/EW6F7V/K91WR/GKOMEQ/18ECAI/AZ/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=10


IF THE TIES ARE STRAINED, IT'S BECAUSE OF TOO MUCH WEIGHT GAIN...

[Demeter]

39. Trade war looming, warns Brazil

Brazil has warned that the world is on course for a full-blown “trade war” as it stepped up its rhetoric against exchange rate manipulation as a form of veiled export subsidy.

Guido Mantega, finance minister, said Brazil was preparing measures to prevent further appreciation of its currency, the real, and would raise the issue of exchange rate manipulation at the World Trade Organisation and other global bodies.

The US and China were among the worst offenders, he said. “This is a currency war that’s turning into a trade war.”

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/WLEVPH/GYN7Q/0GSU1V/BMUWTU/W1/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=9

[Demeter]

40. Personal best---Email Backlog Down to 145 items!

and they are all old Naked Capitalism posts...which have either timed out, or are ongoing.

It's instructive to review the record to see if anything fell through the cracks, and to see how much progress has or hasn't been made...

[Demeter]

43. FROM LAST MARCH Cities, States Tell Big Banks They'll Go Elsewhere

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704349304575115842815972162.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

Fed up with the tight supply of credit, state and local governments across the U.S. are starting to punish big banks.

State lawmakers in Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota and New Mexico have introduced legislation that would funnel more money into small financial institutions, which generally have avoided the brunt of criticism over the industry's reluctance to lend.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg wants to deposit as much as $25 million in city tax proceeds in credit unions. And Lake Oswego, Ore., a suburb of Portland with about 36,000 residents, is moving $1.2 million from a state investment pool into six community-based banks that support local businesses, community organizations and civic groups....

CAN STATE OWNED BANKS--LIKE NORTH DAKOTA'S, BE FAR BEHIND? I AM HOPING RICK SNYDER, NEW MICHIGAN LIBERTARIAN GOVERNOR, DOES SOMETHING LIKE IT...

[Po_d Mainiac]

44. If you think Gold is pricey and subject to fluctuations

[Demeter]

45. Winding down

http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2010/03/16/winding-down/

Regulators need to approach the notion of resolution with resolve. To avoid the next financial mega-collapse, like Lehman or American International Group, Senator Chris Dodd’s new bill for reforming U.S. financial regulation gives watchdogs powers to liquidate all big financial firms, not just banks. This resolution authority should be useful – if regulators aren’t tempted to keep firms afloat instead.

Few disagree with the idea that regulators need power to wind down big financial players, even if they aren’t banks. This was never more clear than in September 2008. Whereas the collapse of Lehman and AIG brought the specter of financial Armageddon, a failing Washington Mutual was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and its assets handed off to JPMorgan with relative ease.

The difference was that WaMu was a bank and FDIC had the regulatory muscle to impose an orderly resolution, forcing shareholders and creditors to take losses so as to right-size the balance sheet. Regulators had no such powers when it came to Lehman or AIG.

The Dodd bill would give FDIC those powers. Among other things, it would also require systemically-risky financial firms to submit “funeral plans” — known as “living wills” in the UK — to serve as a roadmap in the event they needed to be shut down.

So far, so good. But Dodd’s plans still aren’t ideal...


FOR ONE THING, WHAT PASSED ONLY VAGUELY RESEMBLES WHAT WAS PROPOSED, FOR ANOTHER, THE HAMMERING OUT OF DETAILS IS HAMMERING OUT THE TEETH IN THE BILL...

[Demeter]

47. Enron and Merrill, Greece and Goldman

http://baselinescenario.com/2010/03/16/enron-and-merrill-greece-and-goldman/

Did big banks break the law during our recent global debt-fuelled boom? The usual answer is: no – they just took advantage of loopholes and captured regulators. The world’s biggest banks are widely supposed to be too sophisticated to be tripped up by the legal system.

But is this really true? The new Valukas report on Lehman suggests there are grounds for civil action, i.e., people can sue for damages. News reports give no indication of potential criminal charges, but this may change soon. The hiding of Lehman’s true debt levels – through the so-called “Repo 105” structure – is strikingly reminiscent of how Enron’s balance sheet was disguised through fake asset “sales” (as Senator Kaufman now points out).

And, of course, the people who ended up facing criminal charges and – in some prominent cases – going to jail, included not only Enron executives, but also responsible bankers from Merrill Lynch (see The Smartest Guys in the Room, Chapter 13). Arthur Anderson, Enron’s accountant, was also effectively broken by the scandal. It is a serious crime for professional advisers and financiers to assist in securities fraud.

The failure of Lehman therefore opens a can of worms for close and potentially productive examination in coming weeks. But so does the issue of Greek government debt in April 2002...

[xchrom]

49. kick

[Pale Blue Dot]

50. Employers post fewer jobs in November

WASHINGTON — Job openings dipped in November, the latest evidence that employers remain cautious about adding new workers.

The Labor Department says employers advertised 3.25 million jobs that month, a drop of about 80,000 from October.

Openings have risen by 900,000, or 39 percent, since the recession ended. But they are still below the 4.4 million openings that were advertised in December 2007, when the recession began.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41019738/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

[DoBotherMe]

51. K&R

[Pale Blue Dot]

52. Trading Spike Seen Just Before ADP Report

Data from two independent sources show that trading in select currencies and future contracts surged in the seconds before last Wednesday's unexpectedly strong private-sector jobs report from payrolls processor Automatic Data Processing Inc., raising suspicions that someone obtained the report ahead of its official release.

Analysis of exchange-rate prices from foreign-exchange platform EBS revealed a disproportionately large 0.12-yen spike in the dollar versus the yen in the last tick period before the clock hit 8:15 a.m., the report's official release time. The tick data, provided by CQG, are broken up into small, intraminute periods as per the feed from EBS.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704458204576074222473237738.html

[jotsy]

53. An incredible compilation one and all!

I don't get here often enough to say so. Were it up to me I'd collect the lot of you and prepare a fantabulous masterpiece of a meal just to watch the talk, and gain an immense education as further reward.

Thanx!

[Pale Blue Dot]

56. Don't panic if I don't start this thread as early tomorrow.

It's going to be a snow day, and I plan to SLEEP IN!!! It'll still be up before 8. :-)

[florida08]

58. from a local media

Prices To Make Big Jumps In 2011
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Prices on many necessities are going up in 2011, including everything from clothes to gas and even babysitters.

For those who think gas prices are steep now at just more than $3 a gallon, the president of one of the major oil companies said to wait until the end of the year, when experts expect prices to be around $5 a gallon.

Not only is it going to cost more to drive to the store, but shoppers will be spending more when they get there. The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a 2-3 percent hike in the cost of all foods in 2011.

Expect a big spike in the dairy case and meat counter, where pork alone is forecast to rise between 3 and 4 percent.

http://www.news4jax.com/news/26450197/detail.html