Fallouja: No Good Options

[NNN0LHI]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/latimests/20040404/ts_latimes/falloujanogoodoptions&cid=2026&ncid=1480

BAGHDAD — Not for the first time, the U.S. military has sworn to "pacify" Fallouja. But none of the options facing commanders in the defiant Sunni Triangle city appear to hold more promise than the gamut of tactics that have been attempted, without success, for nearly a year.

Since last April, U.S. commanders in western Iraq (news - web sites) have tried everything from withdrawing troops from the city at the behest of local leaders to house-to-house searches and group arrests.


The former strategy gave the insurgents free rein to use the city as a base for disrupting other areas of the country. The latter tactic often resulted in civilian casualties, spawning a dynamic of revenge — common in tribal societies such as Fallouja's — that in turn swelled the ranks of potential insurgents.


The U.S. military has promised to avenge the deaths of four U.S. civilian contractors whose remains were mutilated in the city last week. Military officials say no options have been ruled out: airpower, overwhelming ground forces, house searches and mass arrests. Such an all-out approach might bring temporary calm to this city of 300,000 but would almost certainly entail more Iraqi civilian casualties and spawn anger and likely retaliation throughout the Sunni Muslim regions of Iraq that have been the strongholds of the insurgency.

more

[saigon68]

1. This was tried in Viet-Nam

This was tried in Lidice Czech.

This was tried in numerous places for thousands of years.

In the end, the "Natives" of the place win most of the battles, and like the Nazi's, the aggressors will be vilified for hundreds and thousands of years.

[pepsi]

2. I'd win

If the US was occupied and someone tried this, my village would win. We'd never surrender.

[saigon68]

3. You are right Pepsi

You are the "Native"

The Native always outlasts the mercenary, the conqueror.

All empires eventually fade

Only The Earth Abides.

Peace

[skooooo]

6. Um, except the Native Americans.

I'd say we did a pretty good job on that native population.

[m-jean03]

8. Early germ warfare.

"We" got "lucky" with smallpox... Killed off so many that it was simple to oppress who was left.

[starroute]

17. And in Iraq, the disease factor runs against us

Our soldiers are vulnerable to local diseases against which the Iraqis are fairly immune. I saw something on this last summer, and nothing else since then -- but I wonder if it might help account for the high rate of medical evacuations which was recently reported.

[NNN0LHI]

9. That is because we had guns and explosives and all the...

...Native Americans had were bows and arrows. Things have changed over the past 100 years or so.

Don

[BeFree]

10. Invalid argument

The Native American people were overwhelmed in numbers. We would have to send 50 million troops to Iraq to overwhelm that population of Natives.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. Yes. King Phillip made New England a tough fight.

If the numbers were comparable and technological advantages similarly close- manifest destiny would have been very costly in colonial lives by its end.

[skooooo]

19. The claim was that native populations ALWAYS win...

...and I pointed out an exception. That's all.

[skooooo]

20. Huh? I think there were more NA than settlers...

[Astarho]

23. Yeah, but

we'll have to kill a lot more Iraqis if we want to reduce them to a Native American level, but the world won't put up for that level of war crime nowadays.

[skooooo]

26. Nor should we...

I just don't like to see broad, generalized statements go unchecked just because they don't coincide with what we like to think. Guess I'm in my devil advocate mode.

[jpak]

27. That was genocide - this is stone age ritual warfare

US vs Iraq

Israel vs the Palestinians

In each conflict, there is never ending cycle of revenge killing at levels well below genocidal war.

Not much different than warring tribes in the New Guinea highlands...

[mediaman007]

18. I saw an analogy,

just like the highest mountain, nature's and man's forces tend to wear the mountain down to the level of others. New alliances will come to together to challenge the most powerful force.

While the United States has massive military force at its command, the Iraqis have more time than we have. I also think that a greater percentage of their countrymen/countrywomen are willing to die to win.

Just like our country, democracies must be born within. I don't know what form the government of Iraq will take in 10 years, but I would bet that it won't be what the Neocons expect it to be.

[jimshoes]

4. I love the smell

of FUBAR in the morning. (not really) Nothing short of building a fence around the whole city and turning it into another Warsaw ghetto is going to help fix something that cannot be fixed. The emperor really broke this one.

[legin]

5. Very useful bit

"In a peaceful country with a developed economy, two police officers per 1,000 people are enough to maintain calm, Clarke said. In Northern Ireland in the 1970s, the police needed 20 per 1,000."

------------------------
So for Fallouja, pop. 250,000- 300,000, needs 5,000 - 6,000 for Northern Ireland type coverage.

They might be tempted to do it mercenary style. They are protecting the oil pipline with independant contractors who supply 8,000- 10,000 guards. I don't think they can afford to tie down 5,000+ troops just policing Fallouja.

Might just build a fence around it and have check points for people going in and out. Looks a bit weak though especially after the television scenes of the recent attacks.

Go in in force, shoot the town up a bit, and then build the fence later is another possibility.

[legin]

7. For a perimeter fence

the figure for policing it is about 10 per km.

So for a city that is 5km across, a fence around the outside would be approx 16 km long, need 160-200 troops.

If 10 km across, fence 32 km long, need 350 - 500 troops.

One of the main aims of the occupying troops is to stop the city being used as a safe home base for resistance elsewhere in Iraq.

[BeFree]

11. Fence: Yeah, we can get the Israelis to design it, eh?

Afterall, they have been SO very sucessful. Get real. There is going to be no effective containment of that, or any other city in Iraq. We just need to get our government off their backs. Oh, wait, that's a conservative type of opinion, right?

[legin]

15. It will be interesting to see what they do

if they still believe in the 'bringing democracy to Iraq' gunk then they are constrained to spending the 5,000 troups/mercenaries on policing Fallouja.

If they go with the cheaper in men fence option then as you say they are going down the road of turning Iraq into a big West Bank.

[saigon68]

21. Someone tried this before ----- Those who ignore History

Are doomed to repeat IT Does anyone here really believe the Iraqis and Arabs in general will regard us any better than any Jew regards the NAZIS, after we are done HERE in IRAQ-NAM ???????

And don't give Saigon any Shit about how we are not NAZIs etc.

___________________________________________________________________


Warsaw Ghetto Uprising

One of the most famous pictures of the Holocaust. German stormtroopers force Warsaw ghetto dwellers of all ages to move, hands up, during the Jewish Ghetto Uprising in April-May 1943.




These two women, soon to be executed, were members of the Jewish resistance. Dispatches by SS and Police General J. Stroop reported that "...Jews and Jewesses shot from two pistols at the same time....The Jewesses carried loaded pistols in their clothing with the safety catches off....At the last moment, they would pull hand grenades out...and throw them at the soldiers...."





Nazis guard an opening in the ghetto wall with a machine gun during the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, 1943.

[jimshoes]

22. Thanks for posting these photos Saigon68

These are a grim reminder of some of mankinds' inhumanity.

[Mika]

12. You mean a missile defense shield won't work?

Did anyone ask Condi about this?

[Aidoneus]

13. grin & bear it

that's what they expect the Iraqis to do in the face of their aggressions.. :shrug:

[leQ]

16. again, it comes back to the timing of it all

a powderkeg in fallujah, and condi testifying. which do you think will eat up the airwaves?

never mind the issues that affect us daily, like jobs, healthcare and global warming.

[cliss]

24. And the stakes have just been raised....

because the other side upped the ante.

The US is once again forced to consider its options. The window of choices has become narrowed because the enemy acted. The US has no alternative but to act.

The question is, how much? Should we drop a nuclear bomb on Fallujah? Should we raid not every 3rd home but every single home, drag out the men and frisk the women, and check the stroller for hidden weapons?

I recall reading a few months ago about the bombing which was done via a donkey cart. Next day, we see photos of troops inspecting donkey carts and their contents around Baghdad.

It struck me so clearly what had happened in Iraq. The resistance fighters act, the US reacts. They come up with a new angle, and the US must rethink its strategy and work on that angle.

Next, they will be hiding bombs in Easter Eggs. And the list goes on. They act, we react and readjust our actions. Guess who is on the acting side and who is on the reacting side?

And this is why we will never win. All we can do is adjust and learn while they are in the lead. We are on their turf. We're the visiting team. They will always be 2 steps ahead of us.

Stan Goff wrote that war is mostly psychological. Wars are not always won on physical superiority. It's a lot more than that. And we're not as superior as we might think.

[leesa]

25. There is an excellent option...get the US the hell out of Iraq!

Get all the greedy, grabbing US corporations out of Iraq. Easy. The UN can go in to help them get back on their feet and the Iraqis will be perfectly capable of managing their own affairs. Get the US OUT!

[JohnyCanuck]

28. The way I see it

One of the main purposes of going into Iraq was to control the oil fields and to position troops for later deployment as required in Middle East hot spots. To withdraw from Iraq and turn it over to the UN would be a total failure for the Shrub and his string pullers and an abandonment of the main objectives the invasion was supposed to achieve. He and the Dickster (the real power behind the throne) will therefore fight tooth and nail to do everything possible to avoid a US withdrawal or a turning over of authority to the UN (assuming the UN even feels it has the ability to make a difference now in this horrendous fuckup). To withdraw would be an admission that the Iraq operation was a failure and a waste of lives. I think Shrub will stick around as long as possible and try to tough it out, knowing of course that, by and large, it's not the kids of the ruling classes who will be getting their legs and arms blown off on the front lines.

I just hope more eyes are opened among the sleepwalking US FUX and CNN propaganda consumers as to the massive stupidity, ignorance and corruption that led to this crazy plan in the first place. It's only if the neo-cons see that the US populace is massively turning against them that they will conceivably allow Shrub to withdraw from Iraq and give up US control of such a strategic location. Actually, I could very easily see them finding a reason to impose martial law in the US and suspend normal civil liberties if they felt this critical first step in their PNAC inspired Pax America plan was in danger of an imminent collapse due to lack of support on the home front. FUCKERS!!!!