STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday October 27

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday October 27, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 26, 2010

Dow 11,169.46 +5.41 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,497.29 +6.44 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,185.64 +0.02 (+0.00%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.69 +0.04 (+1.51%)
30-Year Bond 4.03 +0.03 (+0.73%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Po_d Mainiac]

1. Hmmmm da first

Good Morning Ozy
:donut:

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Thanks for the note.

[Po_d Mainiac]

6. Da nada...

It was just like my third year in the forth grade...Deja Vu!

Going to be another odd trading day...Fergut yesterday was a POMO, and the FED can't allow a down market on those occasions.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 10/22
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -10.5%

08:30 Durable Orders Sep
Briefing.com 1.0%
Consensus 1.8%
Prior -1.3%

08:30 Durable Orders - ex transporation Sep
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 2.0%

10:00 New Home Sales Sep
Briefing.com 270K
Consensus 299K
Prior 288K

10:30 Crude Inventories 10/23

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

25. U.S. Sept. durable-goods orders up 3.3%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-sept-durable-goods-orders-up-33-2010-10-27-830330?dist=beforebell

[OnlinePoker]

33. Briefing says it was skewed because of higher than expected airplane orders

Without transport, it dropped 0.8%, below the expected 0.2 to 0.5 increase.

[Roland99]

42. EIA: Oil inventories up by 5 mln barrels.... EIA: Gasoline stockpiles down by 4.4 mln barrels

[ozymandius]

4. Oil falls below $82 as US crude supplies rise

The American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that crude inventories rose 6.4 million barrels last week while analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of
McGraw-Hill Cos., had forecast an increase of 1.5 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell while distillates rose, the API said.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reports its weekly supply data later Wednesday.

"The surprisingly large build in API crude oil stocks could work with a stronger U.S. dollar, a watered-down (quantative easing) event and technical resistance to turn oil prices lower from here," Cameron Hanover said in a report.

In other Nymex trading in November contracts, heating oil fell 2.11 cents to $2.229 a gallon and gasoline dropped 0.21 cent to $2.073 a gallon. Natural gas slid 5.5 cents to $3.299 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

5. U.S. companies hoarding almost $1 trillion cash: Moody's

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. companies are hoarding almost $1 trillion in cash but are unlikely to spend on expanding their business and hiring new employees due to continuing uncertainty about the strength of the economy, Moody's Investors Service said on Tuesday.

As the economy stabilizes companies are also more likely to spend on share repurchases and mergers and acquisitions, Moody's added.

Nonfinancial U.S. companies are sitting on $943 billion of cash and short-term investments, as of mid-year 2010, compared with $775 billion at the end of 2008, Moody's said. This would be enough to cover a year's worth of capital spending and dividends and still have $121 billion left over, it said.

link to story

Moody's also estimates that nearly 25% of the cash is being held in overseas accounts with little chance that it will be repatriated to the United States.

[Po_d Mainiac]

9. I got problems with the "cash flush" line

It fails to take into account that corp debt is at somewhere North of $3.5T and much of the cash was raised from bond sales.

It also fails to deduct the amount of debits sitting on the books of foreign subsidiaries that will never cross the ocean.

M & A's on the horizon? BFD! When was the last time they ever led to hiring?

Edit to add

Here are the key summary findings on America's cash:

* Total cash and short-term investments at U.S. non-financial firms that have Moody’s ratings were $943 billion as of mid-year 2010, up from $775 billion at year-end 2008 and $937 billion at year-end 2009.
* The top 20 companies held $346 billion of the cash, or 37% of the total.
* The top cash-heavy industry sectors are technology ($207 billion), pharmaceuticals ($124 billion), energy ($105 billion), and consumer products ($101 billion).
* Much of the cash held by the larger companies is overseas and not likely to be repatriated to the U.S. Multi-national companies need this cash to finance their international operations, which are often growing faster than their domestic businesses. In addition, unfavorable tax consequences discourage the repatriation of cash to the U.S.
* The firms’ aggregate capital expenditures over the last 12 months were $576 billion, making the ratio of cash to capital expenditures 1.64 times. This exceeds the ratio as of December 2007 and December 2008, when it was 1.1 times, and it may be an all-time high. U.S. companies have the capital to fund normal and even extraordinary capital spending, and in many cases acquisitions, without having to raise additional financing.
* Likewise, current cash can easily cover the study group’s annual dividends, which were $246 billion over the last 12 months.
* Together, capital spending and dividends were $822 billion over the last 12 months, equal to 87% of the firms’ mid-2010 cash holdings.
* Many companies have bolstered cash through debt offerings, especially in 2010. Much of the debt-issuance proceeds have been used to refinance existing debt, but some has been stockpiled for broadly termed general corporate purposes.
* At mid-year 2010, the aggregate cash-to-debt ratio was 0.28, materially better than the 0.23 at December 2008. While we hear a lot about the looming debt refinancing cliff, receptive bond markets and generation of operating cash flow are combining to make the cliff look less intimidating for the stronger, higher-rated companies.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/objective-presentation-americas-1-trillion-cash-hoard

[ozymandius]

11. M&A do not result in hiring. 99% of the time they do the opposite.

Your point about corporate debt raises an interesting issue. If corporations can keep profits off their books here - they can do the same with debt too. That raises an issue about cash flow imbalances across the globe in the current currency/trade war: (1) The oldest and most expeditious way to acquire a company in a hostile takeover is to buy their debt. Capital inflows into countries with robust growth and natural advantages over their competitors (low wages and taxes and government protection) boost their ability to afford acquisitions. We know that China operates in cutthroat capitalist style while maintaining opacity in the relationship between government and industries there. M&A from this part of the world often means buy the company and all its stuff (down to open boxes of paperclips) and ship the lot back to China.

The second point about debt is a simpler idea. Tier 1 assets/debt is all that matters when a company files its paperwork with the SEC. Tiers 2 and 3 - not so much. Companies have been really good at downgrading rotten tier 1 assets/debt when it comes time to file. This works great at a three card monte game. For a company - it sucks. "Investors" aim blindly in their decision processes under these circumstances.

[tclambert]

16. Somebody else's estimate was $2T.

Maybe they were including wealthy individuals as well as corporations. At any rate, the Republicans hate it when you bring this up because it destroys their rationale for cutting the taxes of the rich. Where's the job creation? They already have plenty of cash with which to expand their businesses. Why would giving them a few dollars more trigger positive action?

The problem is, as I have said before, CONSUMERS are not sitting on a pile of cash. Companies having a lot of cash on hand does not create a viable business model for expansion. They need to see customers with money. Then they can come up with a plan to separate the one from the other. They do not need to have a comfy seat on a deep pile of cash to do that. If the business expansion won't pay for itself, it's not a very good plan.

[ozymandius]

7. Consumer confidence, home prices remain weak

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Data on Tuesday underscored the fragility of the economic recovery, with consumer confidence rising but still weak and home prices falling again after gaining earlier in the year.

The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 50.2 in October from a revised 48.6 in September.

Prices of U.S. single-family homes fell for a second month in August, hovering around recent lows after the expiration of popular homebuyer tax credits, according to a Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller report on Tuesday.

story

The expiration of the first time homebuyer tax credit and an unemployment rate that will not budge any lower make these conditions intractable.

[Po_d Mainiac]

8. I have a lowball offer on a place in SE Fl that WF (REO) accepted

The place last sold in 05 for $410K...My offer is $185K, now w8ing for WF to prove they own title.
:popcorn:

[ozymandius]

12. Please let us know how this goes.

Can they produce the note? :popcorn:

[Po_d Mainiac]

14. They haven't yet.

The place is for daughter and her clan...They are currently renting next door...They've been there long enough to feel comfortable with the area...SIL is military, stationed there for the next 4 years minimum...Insurance through USAA, and affordable.

No HOA

[Roland99]

24. Could be a long wait.

hope it's not, though. good luck!

[Po_d Mainiac]

35. Onus is on them

I X'd out the "pending lender approval" clause on refund of earnest money, in lieu of conveyance of clear "warranty title" within 30days on the UCC (my choice whether to opt out at anytime there-after)....I'll also get 8%APR interest if they fail to comply...Needless to say, I put serious "earnest" money up front.
......
I went through a "short" with Wells a couple years ago. It took almost a year for them to produce the paperwork, and get sign-offs on 2 seconds. The process started in late Sept. By mid-Oct a major concern was that the place would blow out the plumbing from a freeze-up. The seller told the RE agent to pass over the key, and my other daughter and her clan lived there rent free while WF went on the docx hunt.

The seller was half owner of a chain of one of the "mortgage underwriters" that sprouted up in 04. They got shuttered on multiple counts in Ct, NH, and Me. (Novaya Mortgage Inc) You name it, they did it. A couple appraisers went down also. The clown should be in jail. Instead, now he's in the "advice" business (ROFLMAO) His Blog starts out Why Entrepreneurship Is The Way To Wealth

[Roland99]

38. Shysters never give up, do they? Explains every GOP campaign strategy.

[Dr.Phool]

27. A friend of mine has a similar deal cooking.

He was finally divorced, and his wife got the house. He found a place near the coast, that sold for $467k in 05, he has a bid in for $200k (which is what the bank approved a short sale for). His only competition is a $185k cash offer.

[Warpy]

47. Make sure they can produce all the paper.

IOW, get a good lawyer on your side.

As for the price, that seems about right. My dad's house in 2006 was worth $240,000 according to comps, I listed for $220,000 and sold fast for $208,000. According to Zillow, it's now $110,000 and other houses on that street with similar square footage have sold for as little as $90,000. That should give you an idea how far prices in Florida have plummeted.

People thought I was nuts for letting it go for that little in 2006.

If anybody is bonkers enough to want to retire to Florida, this is the time to do it. Prices are often rock bottom.

[ozymandius]

10. New Fed Asset Buys May Not Help Much, But Options Limited

There's no evidence of a pickup in hiring, and the factory sector is continuing to cool now that companies have restocked depleted inventories. All told, underlying economic growth is probably below 2% and perhaps as low as 1% — too low to keep the jobless rate from climbing from the current 9.6%.

Economists on average expect Friday's GDP report to show the U.S. grew at a 2% annual rate in Q3. The consensus is for the economy to continue to muddle through at a subpar clip, but the risks are mostly to the downside. Not least is the risk of political gridlock hastening an end to the Bush tax cuts or extended jobless benefits.

In the short term, a stock market rally and refinancing boost have given household finances a modest lift. That's in no small part due to the financial market response — lower mortgage rates and higher equity prices — to the Fed's unmistakable signals that it will begin buying Treasuries en masse.

First off: That part in bold is ridiculous. Pure nonsense, really. What households have been given a boost from a stock market rally? If the author means that a stock portfolio can be used like an ATM (much like their house in the go-go days) that's just daft. People may feel richer with a portfolio that is worth a bit more. Absent are the real conditions that put money in their pockets.

Second: At my other place on the web, I offer some information and inferences about QE2 that parallel the sentiments in this article. Additional explorations about the Bernanke's plan to fix everything are here.

Personally I think QE2 will be wholly ineffective for its stated purpose. I also think that it will just piss people off. Repeating my point yesterday:

The Fed gambles that on the idea that spurring inflation will stimulate more spending from consumers. In sum: Prices are going up so you might as well spend now. Somehow, I feel the message is going to get lost in the translation from Fed speak to everyday language. The average person will notice price increases without understanding why.

The average person does not follow Fed decisions with rapt attention. Evidently the Fed does not understand how the average person thinks with the frail psychological trick to stimulate spending. The Fed also does not evidence any understanding that banks are not lending money (They are, in fact, hoarding it.) The combined phenomena lead me to the conclusion that (a) the Fed is out of ideas, and; (b) the system through which the Fed used to influence consumer behavior is broken.

[SarahB]

15. "Prices are going up so you might as well spend now."

The other problem with that statement is that it assumes that people have excess money to spend now. My husband and I both have good jobs and we're conservative in our spending and credit - yet we still don't have the ability to say, "Prices are about to go up; let's spend more money now!" The money is simply not there to do so. And there's a lot of people far worse off than the two of us.

[Po_d Mainiac]

18. Yup

I'm scared to death that my bride will want a new dishwasher...since her current one is way out of date(me)

[DemReadingDU]

23. LOL

I really miss my kids. When they lived here, they were my dishwashers, as well as kept the house dusted, bathrooms cleaned, and grass mowed. I've been so out of the habit of doing chores, they don't seem to get done anymore.

[Dr.Phool]

28. I brought home a new dishwasher for my bride, and she threw it out.

It was a 19 year old blonde.

I bet if I had life insurance, she'd have let me keep it.

[Demeter]

31. I thought that was what puppies were for

the grandpuppy just grabbed the Kid's breakfast off her plate...some lessons must be relearned regularly--like don't leave food within cruising range.

[Dr.Phool]

32. Puppies are the pre-wash cycle.

The don't make 'em like they used to. The Fudd could leave a plate sparkling. These two, not so much. But, Rosco has potential.

[Po_d Mainiac]

36. U wanna watch people freak?

Next time you have company over, pick up the plate and put it back in the cupboard.

Our mutt was a "Katrina" refugee. Nothing gets past his tongue..

[Dr.Phool]

39. I have a friend who comes down from Cleveland every winter.

He's very germ-phobic. He won't even touch the dogs. He puts his hands in his pockets, so as to not accidentally touch them.

We had dinner here one day, and after I finished, I instinctively put the plate in the floor for The Fudd. My friend said, "I'll never eat out of that dish". I told him, there's not a dish, pot or pan in this house that he hasn't cleaned out".

He looked a little queasy.

[Po_d Mainiac]

41. U remind him why dogs have tongues?

Saves on TP

[ozymandius]

13. Gotta run...

Have a wonderful day, all.
:hi:

[Demeter]

17. Fed zombies hungry for quantitative easing GMO’s Grantham scripts ‘Night of the Living Fed’

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-zombies-hungry-for-quantitative-easing-2010-10-26?siteid=YAHOOB

The easy-money policies of Federal Reserve chairmen Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan have rarely impressed veteran fund manager Jeremy Grantham, but now the chief investment strategist at GMO, a Boston investment firm, is likening Fed actions to an economic horror show.

“Adhering to a policy of low rates, employing quantitative easing, deliberately stimulating asset prices, ignoring the consequences of bubbles breaking, and displaying a complete refusal to learn from experience has left Fed policy as a large net negative to the production of a healthy, stable economy with strong employment,” Grantham wrote in his latest quarterly commentary, “Night of the Living Fed.”

In a scathing indictment of the Fed, Grantham casts Bernanke as a desperate zombie whose manipulation of asset prices through lower interest rates — exacerbated by a widely expected second round of quantitative easing beginning next month — weakens not just the U.S. economy but also destabilizes currency and commodity markets.Read Grantham's full commentary.

Moreover, Grantham alleges, artificially stimulated asset prices encourages risk-taking investment behavior that can lead to asset bubbles that invariably end badly, as was the case with Internet stocks and housing...

AND SO ON...WE'RE FREAKING DOOMED.

THE LEVEL OF CRAZY TOOK A QUANTITATIVE LEAP THIS WEEK. i GUESS IT'S PRE-ELECTION NERVES. COULD THIS MEAN THAT THERE'S SOME ACTUAL UNCERTAINTY OF THE OUTCOME? THE RESULT ISN'T "IN THE BAG", AS IT WERE?

OR WORSE, IS THERE A DOMESTIC RIOT IN THE OFFING? MANUFACTURED, OR GENUINE?

[Po_d Mainiac]

19. Riots?

The majority of the sheeple have yet to figure out where the true problem/s originated. I have little faith that anger will be properly directed.

[Demeter]

20. If any street action occurs, I will suspect it to be manufactured

[Tansy_Gold]

21. Well, at least it will bring back some manufacturing of SOMETHING

:evilgrin:


TG

[Demeter]

29. Oh, You're So Bad!

That rates a duzy.

[jtuck004]

46. +1 LOL n/t

[StarburstClock]

50. Yes, the U.S. is 1 gas shortage or food shortage away from it.

People are jobless, hopeless and being conned by criminals everyday and are fully aware of it. In the last week here in the D.C. area, someone has shot at the Pentagon, a military recruitment office and a "homeland" security building. I was driving by a bank the other day and a security guard posted outside of it was staring at me like I was about to rob the place and I was in a car on the street just passing by. There's been over 100 home burglaries by a reported "serial" burglar and yesterday a college professor got robbed and murdered in a "nice" neighborhood in suburban Maryland. People are desperate and that's in the D.C. area which is in a kind of secluded protective financial bubble like NYC is.

The new dem administration is seen as a complete joke by every democratic-voting person I know, having failed at reforming banks, ending war, holding war criminals accountable, creating universal health care and ending the corporate cronyism and fascism that rules government. That leaves people with a deep seated feeling of uselessness, being ignored and powerlessness. An entire populace with those feelings is a powder keg just waiting for the 1st provocation. The extremist groups like the tea party are just the beginning, stomping women's heads into the street and raging against protesters of any sort. Soon, it'll be the general population acting like that as no one is held accountable for anything in criminal countries.

[Dr.Phool]

52. I think the fuse will be lit right after the election.

The Republicans are just itching to cut off any more unemployment extensions.

When you take that much money out of the economy, and impoverish that many people overnight, it's going to blow.

[wordpix]

53. you forgot to add that in poor neighborhoods, there are lots of guys hanging out

with nothing to do ---no jobs, perhaps looking for next victim or maybe a drug deal. :scared:

It's scary even driving through some neighborhoods. People need jobs!

[Dr.Phool]

55. The wife and I went out for a pizza Friday night.

In the same area we were in (we probably drove by the spot) a guy had left the bar at 10:30pm, and was walking home along the Pinellas Trail, got mugged, robbed, and pistol whipped by three guys.

[Po_d Mainiac]

56. There are too many parts of the country where mass protests

should already be taking place.

The brainwashing has been a total success. The sheeple will instead look for a 'strong' / 'law and order' presence to restore the peace.

If the sheeple had a clue:
There wouldn't be a single individual checking or savings account with any of the major banks.
Wal-Fart parking lots would be empty.
No one would give a damn about the next piece of iCrap to go on sale.
Frontline would have higher ratings than Survivor
The word 'recovery' would only be spoken in reference to illness
Troops would be out of trashcanistan and irott
The US never would have become IOUistan
The prominent commercials wouldn't be pills for limpdickitis or Crapitall One credit cards

YMMV

[Dr.Phool]

60. Speaking of Frontline.

They did a number on BP last night.

And on election night, it's Obama's turn. The health care deal.

[Po_d Mainiac]

63. It was only worth a 55 penny hit to their stock

We must have been the only ones' watching

[tclambert]

66. It's too cold to riot here.

We prefer to riot when it's warm out.

Plus, there's good stuff on TV. And the news said something about Charlie Sheen. So if there's a riot anywhere, we'll just watch it on Youtube.

[DemReadingDU]

22. Last night's village meeting - saga continues

previous update...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=4582268#4582476

So we went to the semi-monthly village meeting last night. Lots of tension and bickering and yelling. Mayor explaining about the 'missing' Public Records that the village settled with us. He didn't agree with the settlement because he had never before seen the 'missing' records, or he believed they weren't 'Public Records'.

An unidentified person started ranting and yelling from the audience about the council not doing their job. Then proceeded to rant from the podium, turned around and yelled at the audience. The mayor did nothing. The police chief did nothing. (this guy obviously was a friend of the mayor and chief)

When it came time for the people to speak at the end of the meeting, spouse remarked that since this person was not warned to sit down or be removed, that spouse said his charge for his arrest and booked into jail for allegedly 'disrupting' a previous meeting, should be dismissed for only having an opinion different than the mayor.

Spouse intends today to follow-up with his attorney to follow-up with the prosecutor to indeed have this charge dismissed.

Lots more happened, but this was the relevant part that concerned our case. Meeting lasted 2.5 hours, usually a meeting is only about an hour. We definitely are going to get an audio copy of this meeting.

[Demeter]

30. It's a very small village, I take it.

Sigh. Pretty soon we will be back to the shoot-out-at-noon-on-main-Street method of public life and discourse.

[Po_d Mainiac]

65. Nope

Sarajevo/DC Sniper would be a better examples.

[Roland99]

26. Futures pointing to a bit of a selloff.

S&P 500 1,177 -6.30 -0.53%
DOW 11,081 -43.00 -0.39%
NASDAQ 2,108 -8.00 -0.38%

[Festivito]

34. Debt: 10/25/2010 13,669,359,903,495.66 (UP 1,734,911,284.70) (Mon)

(Up little. Good day.)
Following an unexpected cleanup comes an emergency far away.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,058,663,206,824.61 + 4,610,696,696,671.05
UP 57,456,608.35 + UP 1,677,454,676.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,220.00 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.66, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,558,592 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,015.4.
A family of three owes $132,046.19. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 9,644,839,036.77.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,751,387,325.74.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,533,600,637.81.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 267 reports in 390 days of FY2011 averaging 6.59B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 818 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.8 and 19.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/25/2010 13,669,359,903,495.66 BHO (UP 3,042,482,854,582.58 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,107,736,872,603.90 ------------* * BHO
Endof11 +24,116,192,799,748.00 ------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | per 1B Too much to predict at this time.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/04/2010 +000,259,208,393.70 ------------******** Mon
10/05/2010 +000,697,809,032.26 ------------********
10/06/2010 +000,102,633,566.23 ------------********
10/07/2010 -010,581,200,428.89 -
10/08/2010 -000,047,594,597.51 ----
10/12/2010 -002,308,905,840.19 -- Tue
10/13/2010 +004,079,531,881.58 ------------*********
10/14/2010 -003,450,466,367.69 --
10/15/2010 +053,297,374,376.50 ------------**********
10/18/2010 +000,841,690,317.23 ------------******** Mon
10/19/2010 +000,443,038,294.93 ------------********
10/20/2010 +001,330,613,152.94 ------------*********
10/21/2010 -003,241,964,507.19 --
10/22/2010 -000,039,023,333.21 ----
10/25/2010 +000,057,456,608.35 ------------******* Mon

41,440,200,549.04 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4588778&mesg_id=4588823

[Festivito]

68. Debt: 10/26/2010 13,673,749,566,734.14 (UP 4,389,663,238.48) (Tue)

(Up little. Good day.)
Eating hommous.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,059,227,318,152.54 + 4,614,522,248,581.60
UP 564,111,327.93 + UP 3,825,551,910.55

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,219.93 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.66, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,565,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,028.51.
A family of three owes $132,085.53. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 9,405,967,409.58.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,897,709,433.69.
The average for the last 32 days would be 6,466,602,594.08.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 268 reports in 391 days of FY2011 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 817 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.8 and 19.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/26/2010 13,673,749,566,734.14 BHO (UP 3,046,872,517,821.06 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,112,126,535,842.40 ------------* * BHO
Endof11 +23,188,646,922,834.60 ------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | per 1B Too much to predict at this time.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/05/2010 +000,697,809,032.26 ------------********
10/06/2010 +000,102,633,566.23 ------------********
10/07/2010 -010,581,200,428.89 -
10/08/2010 -000,047,594,597.51 ----
10/12/2010 -002,308,905,840.19 -- Tue
10/13/2010 +004,079,531,881.58 ------------*********
10/14/2010 -003,450,466,367.69 --
10/15/2010 +053,297,374,376.50 ------------**********
10/18/2010 +000,841,690,317.23 ------------******** Mon
10/19/2010 +000,443,038,294.93 ------------********
10/20/2010 +001,330,613,152.94 ------------*********
10/21/2010 -003,241,964,507.19 --
10/22/2010 -000,039,023,333.21 ----
10/25/2010 +000,057,456,608.35 ------------******* Mon
10/26/2010 +000,564,111,327.93 ------------********

41,745,103,483.27 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4590249&mesg_id=4590374

[Roland99]

37. 9:49 - slippin' away

Dow 11,095 -75 -0.67%
Nasdaq 2,494 -4 -0.15%
S&P 500 1,179 -7 -0.57%
GlobalDow 2,018 -16 -0.80%
Gold 1,330 -8 -0.61%
Oil 81.76 -0.79 -0.96%

[Po_d Mainiac]

40. The U$D is actually up for a change...markets should react inversely

[Ghost Dog]

44. Re. USD: Have the US and China Kissed and Made Up?

The recent jousting between the US and China had the look of a full on row. And the spectacle at last weekend’s G20 seemed to offer further confirmation, with Geithner proposing a cap on current account surpluses that was aimed at China above all.

But now the Financial Times tells us that relations are already on the mend:

China and the US have the basis for an agreement at the summit of the Group of 20 leading nations next month on setting targets to cut trade imbalances, according to an adviser to the Chinese central bank.

Li Daokui, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee and professor at Tsinghua University, said on Tuesday there had been “good progress” at the weekend meeting of G20 finance ministers in South Korea which had moved debate from the “surface issue” of nominal exchange rates to “talking about the substance of rebalancing world trade”.

“China should not be afraid of numerical targets for reducing its trade surplus,” said Mr Li in an interview. “China is well positioned politically and economically to make this adjustment.”

The Financial Times does point out that Li is not a government official, but the article contend that his remarks point to a real movement.

Or do they? The US was never going to push China hard. Not that it couldn’t; various analysts have suggested the US holds the better cards were things to get ugly. But it’s well known Team Obama blinks in any staredown. China was bound to prevail if it talked tough enough. And it isn’t clear Treasury had its heart in this fight. Geithner has consistently upped his rhetoric in response to Congressional pressure and dialed it back down as soon as possible. It seemed obvious that he intended to push the timetable of the war of words with China past the Congressional midterms, since the legislative saber-rattling would presumably abate.

/more... http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/10/have-the-us-and-china-kissed-and-made-up.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

Reminds me (again) of:

...

3. The art of war, then, is governed by five constant
factors to be taken into account in one's deliberations
when seeking to determine the conditions obtaining in the field.

4. These are: (1) The Moral Law; (2) Heaven; (3) Earth;
(4) The Commander; (5) Method and discipline.

5,6. The Moral Law causes the people to be in complete
accord with their ruler, so that they will follow him
regardless of their lives, undismayed by any danger.

7. Heaven signifies night and day, cold and heat,
times and seasons.

8. Earth comprises distances, great and small;
danger and security; open ground and narrow passes;
the chances of life and death.

9. The Commander stands for the virtues of wisdom,
sincerity, benevolence, courage and strictness.

10. By method and discipline are to be understood
the marshaling of the army in its proper subdivisions,
the graduations of rank among the officers, the maintenance
of roads by which supplies may reach the army, and the
control of military expenditure.

11. These five principles should be familiar to every general:
he who knows them will be victorious; he who knows them
not will fail.


/more... Sun Tzu (Sun Zi) on the Art of War ( 孫子兵法 ) (a little editing required).

[Ghost Dog]

43. Pimco’s Bill Gross: QE2 is a Ponzi Scheme

Pimco bond meister Bill Gross is out with his monthly investment outlook calling QE2 a Ponzi scheme and saying it’s arrival will mark the end of the rally for U.S. Treasurys. He writes:

It seems that the Fed has taken Charles Ponzi one step further. Instead of simply paying for maturing debt with receipts from financial sector creditors – banks, insurance companies, surplus reserve nations and investment managers, to name the most significant – the Fed has joined the party itself. Rather than orchestrating the game from on high, it has jumped into the pond with the other swimmers. One and one-half trillion in checks were written in 2009, and trillions more lie ahead. The Fed, in effect, is telling the markets not to worry about our fiscal deficits, it will be the buyer of first and perhaps last resort. There is no need – as with Charles Ponzi – to find an increasing amount of future gullibles, they will just write the check themselves. I ask you: Has there ever been a Ponzi scheme so brazen? There has not. This one is so unique that it requires a new name. I call it a Sammy scheme, in honor of Uncle Sam and the politicians (as well as its citizens) who have brought us to this critical moment in time. It is not a Bernanke scheme, because this is his only alternative and he shares no responsibility for its origin. It is a Sammy scheme – you and I, and the politicians that we elect every two years – deserve all the blame.

...

/... http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/10/27/pimcos-bill-gross-qe2-is-a-ponzi-scheme/?mod=yahoo_hs

[soryang]

49. Disingenuous opinion from Gross

The accumulation of debt in the economy has been massively scewed to the private sector. This has been documented historically in three Kevin Phillips books, Wealth and Democracy, American Theocracy and Bad Money. Investment banks and the financial sector were primarily responsible for the excesses. Then came the last super collapse of the financial markets from investment banking fraud. All of that private debt was transferred directly and indirectly to the government and the taxpayer. After their massive fraud with innovative financial instruments, the poobahs in the investment banking system, now have the balls to blame the government for their massive larceny and call for austerity on the people at large, who have suffered the most from their bogus "free trade" nonsense.

[Demeter]

69. Well, we are just going to have to "transfer it back"

It's either sink the banksters, or repudiate the debt. (Not refudiate, sister Sarah).

The whole world would be a lot better off if the banksters were sunk and asset stripped. Even the banks would benefit.

[soryang]

72. Right on!

I vote to have William Black put these crooked institutions into receivership and liquidate them.

[Roland99]

45. 11:34: triple digits down (but it's "Good Good Good", eh?)

Dow 11,036 -134 -1.20%
Nasdaq 2,480 -18 -0.71%
S&P 500 1,173 -12 -1.03%
GlobalDow 2,007 -27 -1.31%
Gold 1,323 -16 -1.20%
Oil 80.68 -1.87 -2.27%

[Dr.Phool]

48. When all else fails, post dog pictures.

Taken about 12:30 today.

[DemReadingDU]

51. Aaah!

I see you have them entertained to keep them out of the garden!

[Dr.Phool]

54. I wish they would leave comedy to the pro's.

I was watching Monday nights, "Daily Show" last night. Jon's guest was Austen Goolsbey.

The only thing I keep hearing out of these people's mouths is "the private sector isn't hiring as fast as we'd like". Like everything else with this administration, it's all private sector, private sector, private sector. Everything from education, to health insurance, to jobs. That's their only solution.

They have no clue. No vision. Nothing whatsoever. Do these fucking idiots understand that there is a crisis? This is an economic Katrina? That's what governments are for. Managing a crisis. When the private sector can't or won't respond to a crisis, it's the duty of the government to step in and create jobs.

And, I'm not talking about giving some private company money to do some work, and they hire everyone at minimum wage, or hire undocumented workers, or farm out the actual production to China. I'm talking government run, good-paying, with benefits projects. Cut out the private part altogether. After the crisis is over, then they can sell it off. With stipulations that the jobs stay here.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

57. Uh, oh!

[bread_and_roses]

58. No worries - evidently the fairies are hard at work leading up to close (n/t)

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

59. The ubiquitous shoulder to cry on.

[Dr.Phool]

61. The faeries win! That's good for Independents.

:crazy: :silly: :crazy: :silly: :crazy: :silly: :crazy: :silly: :silly:

[DemReadingDU]

62. Breaking News: Rebecca Parrett arrested in Mexico

10/27/10 Executive Lived in `Lap of Luxury' on Lam, Marshal Says

Rebecca Parrett, a former National Century Financial Enterprises Inc. executive who fled the U.S. to avoid a 25-year prison term, was arrested in a Mexican resort town where she liked to dance, a U.S. official said.

Parrett, 62, was picked up yesterday by Mexican immigration authorities in Ajijic, Jalisco, Deputy U.S. Marshal Brian Babtist said today. Parrett was convicted in Columbus, Ohio, in March 2008 for her role in a $2.9 billion fraud. Days later, while out on bail, she fled her home in Carefree, Arizona. She was declared a fugitive and sentenced in absentia in March 2009.

“She was living in the lap of luxury,” Babtist said in a telephone interview from Columbus. “She was having fun, telling people that she was an American who had testified against several people in a large white-collar crime case. She was trying to stay anonymous and using an alias.”

Parrett was flown yesterday from Guadalajara to Los Angeles, where she was arrested on a warrant, he said. She will appear in federal court in Los Angeles before being moved to Columbus.

She was convicted with four other executives in 2008 of fraud, money laundering and conspiracy. The judge also ordered her to pay $2.38 billion in restitution. Parrett, a former vice chairman, secretary and treasurer, was one of 10 executives who were convicted at trial or pleaded guilty.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-27/ex-national-century-executive-parrett-arrested-in-mexico-prosecutors-say.html


link backwards to previous articles
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4461188&mesg_id=4461196

[Dr.Phool]

64. I thought they would catch D.B. Cooper first.

[Demeter]

71. You can't catch a dead man

See Ladin, Osama bin.

[tclambert]

67. Can't she just hire somebody to do the prison time for her?

I thought that's how rich people did it. At least on Veronica Mars.

[Demeter]

70. Well, what do you know. Next We'll Catch Some War Criminals--NOT