STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday August 13

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday August 13, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 12, 2010

Dow... 10,319.95 -58.88 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq... 2,190.27 -18.36 (-0.84%)
S&P 500... 1,083.61 -5.86 (-0.54%)
Gold future... 1,218 +1.20 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.73 -0.01 (-0.51%)
30-Year Bond 3.93 -0.02 (-0.38%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
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Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
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Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 CPI Jul
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior -0.1%

08:30 Core CPI Jul
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 Retail Sales Jul
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior -0.5%

08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jul
Briefing.com 0.4%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior -0.1%

09:55 Mich Sentiment Aug
Briefing.com 67.0
Consensus 70.0
Prior 67.80

10:00 Business Inventories Jun
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.1%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

19. July retail sales up for first time in 3 months

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/july-retail-sales-up-for-first-time-in-3-months-2010-08-13

Sales at U.S. retailers increased 0.4% in July to a seasonally adjusted $362.7 billion, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Sales increased for the first time after two straight monthly declines. Sales fell an upwardly revised 0.3% in June. Details of the July report were weak. Most of the gain came from autos and gasoline. Excluding these two sectors, retail sales were down 0.1% in July. Ahead of the report, economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected total sales to rise 0.5% in June. Excluding the 1.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, retail sales rose 0.2% to $299.7 billion, in line with expectations

Oil was on a nice double-digit gain last month but it's come down quickly this week.

[Ghost Dog]

35. U.S. Consumer Prices Climb, Easing Deflation Risk

The cost of living in the U.S. climbed in July for the first time in four months, pointing to a stabilization that may ease concern a slowdown in growth will spur deflation.

The consumer-price index increased 0.3 percent, the most in a year and exceeding the 0.2 percent gain projected by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. A gauge excluding volatile food and fuel costs, the so-called core rate, increased 0.1 percent, as projected.

The report showed rents, the biggest component in CPI, increased for a second month, and the cost of clothing, used cars and tobacco climbed, diminishing the risk of a protracted drop in prices that would hurt the economy. Economists say the lack of inflation gives Federal Reserve policy makers scope to leave the benchmark interest rate near zero into 2011 to help invigorate the economy.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-13/consumer-prices-in-u-s-climb-for-first-time-in-four-months.html

[Ghost Dog]

36. Consumer Sentiment Index in U.S. Increased in August

Confidence among U.S. consumers rose in August, a sign the biggest part of the economy may soon stabilize.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment climbed to 69.6 following a reading of 67.8 in July that was the lowest since November, the group said today. The gauge was forecast to rise to 69, according to the median of 65 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

...

The gauge of current conditions, which reflects Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, rose to 78.3 from 76.5 in the prior month.

The index of consumer expectations for six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, increased to 64.1 from 62.3.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-13/u-s-consumer-confidence-rises-more-than-estimated-michigan-index-shows.html

[ozymandius]

48. They're asking crack smokers again.

:hi: I have a short break today.

[Demeter]

54. Or Germans

It sure as shooting isn't Michiganders.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rises above $76 as world stocks bounce back

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $76 a barrel Friday in Asia, clawing back some of this week's losses as stock markets rebounded.

Oil has dropped from above $81 a barrel earlier this week amid resurgent investor fears that the global economy may not grow in the second half as much as previously expected.

The Labor Department on Thursday said last week's applications for jobless benefits reached the highest level in almost six months. In addition, stocks fell on disappointing earnings from Cicso Systems Inc., Sara Lee Corp. and retailer Kohl's Corp.

In other Nymex trading in September contracts, heating oil rose 1.47 cents to $2.0162 a gallon, gasoline added 1.52 cents to $1.9700 a gallon and natural gas gained 2.4 cents to $4.320 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Jobs picture dims as unemployment claims rise

WASHINGTON – The economy is looking bleaker as new applications for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in almost six months.

It's a sign that hiring remains weak and employers may be going back to cutting their staffs. Analysts say the increase suggests companies won't be adding enough workers in August to lower the 9.5 percent unemployment rate.

First-time claims for jobless benefits edged up by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 484,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the highest total since February. Analysts had expected claims to fall.

Initial claims have now risen in three of the last four weeks and are close to their high point for the year of 490,000, reached in late January. The four-week average, which smooths volatility, soared by 14,250 to 473,500, also the highest since late February.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100812/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

[Demeter]

11. It's a Sign that Recovery Is a Non-Starter and a Fraud

and the US is on life support, but only for the TBTF.

[AnneD]

13. Morning Marketeers...

:donut:and lurkers. Am I being too cheap, or it's not a recovery yet. Last night I went to my favorite American Classic diner. Over the last few years, I have put up with them dropping the salad before the blue plate dinner, dropping 3 sides down to 2, and even go up on the price. But last night, after I had eaten, I was still hungry-not uncomfortably, but hungry none the less. Now I have to explain that I have lost almost 30 lbs since Dec so I know proportions-and the portions on the mashed potatoes and squash casserole were skimpier than usual.

So I decided to get a dessert and ask for a slice of key lime pie. When I saw what my $4 bought , I was disgusted. Most folks will split the deserts but you would have been lucky to get 3 bites each. No garnish, no glaze nothing but a tiny piece of cheese cake on an old dingy melamie plate. I called the waiter over and asked him what portion of the pie was this. I knew it was less than 1/9 which is the stingiest industry standard. He came back and told me it was 1/10. The restaurant was making $40 on what amounted to a no bake cheese pie that consists of one can sweetened condensed milk, 8oz cream cheese, and 1/4-1/2 cup of lime juice in a graham cracker crust.

I declined the pie and asked them to take it off the bill. They did but not before the manager tried to: rationalize the price and offer me some ice cream with the cheese cake :wtf:. I told him that I enjoyed my meal but that I would not be ordering the overpriced cheese cake again. I explained that if he was going to try selling that, at least put a garnish on it so I wouldn't feel quite so bad about them picking my pocket. I will still go there but they are a victim of their own success. Guess I'll just stick to breakfast.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[DemReadingDU]

16. That's outrageous

:mad:

[Roland99]

18. That's why I liked Cheddar's restaurant back in Lousville

It's a regional chain, I believe, but they provide rather large portions and their prices are very reasonable considering how much food one gets.

But, yeah, I've noticed chip bags are more expensive but less in weight. Coca-Cola now sells 20-pk cases instead of 24-pk and charges the same price.

[AnneD]

31. And they try to convince us....

there is no inflations and the unemployment numbers are what 9.7-9.8% now. Yeah, let me just keep drinking my free bubble up and eating that rainbow stew.

[Warpy]

34. One of my friends was a chef at a very fancy restaurant in Boston,

the kind of place that was reviewed in The New Yorker and that people from Manhattan would jet up to try. Their portion size on desserts was 1/12. The desserts were incredibly rich and decadent, crammed full of exotic liqueurs and other ingredients, but they were the soul of skimpy. Their entree portions were the same, that one perfect scallop with the perfect sear with dots of a reduction sauce arranged artfully around it and a few slivers of baby veg on top of it.

That's something I found out years ago, that the more upscale the eatery, the smaller the portions. You can't be too rich or too thin, you know, and besides, it's not like you're going to go back to digging ditches or plowing fields when you finish at one of those places.

Diners, however, are just not going to be able to get away with this shit since their customers are going to go back to digging a ditch or plowing a field. Cutting portions can't be done quite so obviously. They'll just have to limit their menus to specials based on what they can get cheaply that day, something restaurants always did before we got so prosperous.

We're not prosperous any more and that diner's going to have to wake up to that fact if it wants to stay open. Restaurants are a tough business in any climate and especially brutal when the people who dine at the upscale places foul it up for the rest of us.

[AnneD]

45. And that is my point.....

this is just a classic American Diner, known for big portions. I have watched over the last 7 years as they have cut corners. They make their own squash casserole (and it is in season now)and I know they use the mashed potatoes and incorporate the baked from yesterday. They must have used the smallest scoop for those (other than the butter and sour cream scoop). I saw more of my plate than the meal-and that wasn't the case even last year. But the key lime cheese cake was the last straw. They were charging Bistro prices. For $4 bucks, put a lime twist on top and maybe some whipped cream to the side with a cherry. I wouldn't even ask for a reduction or glaze in a diner. I have made that pie myself to the point that I know it by memory. That just upset me more-they were making $40 on that pie. What a markup! What a ripoff! I was not putting my diet at risk by splurging to eat there.

[Demeter]

47. Just your budget

[AnneD]

50. LOL LOL LOL .....

I ended up going to Sonic and getting a small Limeade Chiller. I gave the girl $3 and told her to keep the difference and it was a nice tip. I was full at half of the drink, Sampson drank the other half. I am getting thinner and my dogs and cat are getting fatter:spray:
It seems like a minor thing to bitch about, but I get tired of all the cheer leaders saying things are ok when they are not.

The DNC sent me a survey/fundraiser on what the important issues were this election cycle. I told them they didn't have the balls to listen to the rank and file to hear what the real problems were but I filled out the survey anyway. Mentioned why I wasn't giving my time, money and energy to the Dems this year. I doubt they will read it but they spent the postage so I figured I would use it.

[ozymandius]

4. US bailouts aided foreign firms: watchdog

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US decision to pour billions of taxpayer dollars into the economy likely propped up foreign firms as well as their US counterparts, a Congressional watchdog said Thursday.

The Congressional Oversight Panel said firms from Europe to Asia benefited from the 700-billion-dollar bailout signed into law in 2008 by then-president George W. Bush, as it pressed the Treasury Department to better monitor flows.

The bailouts of insurance giant AIG, Goldman Sachs and General Motors were all named at examples of firms whose aid might have helped firms abroad.

"Banks in France and Germany were among the greatest beneficiaries of AIG's rescue, yet the US government bore the entire 700 billion dollar risk of the AIG capital injection program," the panel said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100812/pl_afp/uspoliticseconomybailout

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The banks. Always the banks. I wonder if those who were responsible for TARP would have maintained the banks in all their storied, zombified glory while everything else fell into smoldering rubble.

[ozymandius]

5. Euro zone posts strong GDP growth in second quarter

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Euro zone gross domestic product grew at its fastest pace in more than three years in the second quarter, boosted by a strong performance by Germany and France, but concerns remain that the rebound could falter.

European Union statistics agency Eurostat said GDP in the 16-nation currency zone expanded by 1.0 percent in the second quarter from the first, and by 1.7 percent versus the second quarter of 2009, matching a revised Reuters poll.

Economists said the figures were the strongest in at least 3-1/2 years and showed euro zone growth outpacing that of the United States in the March-June period.

Germany proved the engine of the euro zone growth figures, with data released earlier on Friday showing the German economy expanded by 2.2 percent in the second quarter, the fastest rate since German reunification, with companies stepping up investment and exports surging.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100813/ts_nm/us_eurozone_gdp

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I have made fun of Germany before with its stubborn defense of its export model economy. However, now, this is something to admire. Congratulations to Europe which, unlike the U.S., has not dismantled their domestic manufacturing capacity.

[ozymandius]

6. Germany sees fastest growth since reunification

BERLIN – Germany's economy surged ahead in the second quarter, growing 2.2 percent — the fastest pace for at least two decades and beating market forecasts — as a global recovery fed demand for its exports.

The first-quarter growth figure for Europe's biggest economy also was revised upward Friday to 0.5 percent — more than double the initial reading of 0.2 percent.

While foreign trade was one of the key drivers of growth, household and government consumption also contributed to the rise in gross domestic product, the statistical office said.

The economy shrank by a painful 4.9 percent last year — easily the worst performance since World War II.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100813/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_germany_economy

[Ghost Dog]

15. Swiss Central Bank Makes Loss as It Fights Franc Rise

While the rest of Europe struggles to rein in government debt, there is no talk of forced austerity in prudent Switzerland. Instead, the country is looking forward to growth of at least 2.5 percent this year, thanks to booming exports.

But at what cost?

...

The Swiss have navigated through the economic storm better than their neighbors. As so often in its history, Switzerland maintained a distance from the turmoil just outside its borders. When the world sank into recession last year, Swiss output slid 1.5 percent, a pittance compared with the 5 percent declines in Germany to the north or Italy to the south. But the central bank’s recent attempt to halt the climb of the franc by printing money — 79 billion francs in May alone — to intervene in currency markets served as a reminder that Switzerland cannot insulate itself from the economies around it. In fact, they are yoked together.

“In the long run one can’t avoid a recession with expansionary monetary policy,” said Urs Rüegsegger, the chief executive of the SIX Group, which operates the Swiss Stock Exchange. “The market is going to have to get used to: A, higher interest rates, and B, recession.”

...

The franc has risen more than 10 percent against the euro this year. It rose a similar amount against the dollar through June, but has recently returned almost to the January level.

/... http://www.cnbc.com/id/38688218


Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Swiss franc’s best start to a year against the euro since the common currency’s debut is regaining momentum as the nation’s economy strengthens, just as budget cuts begin to throttle growth in the 16-nation region.

Demand for options granting the right to buy the franc against the euro versus those providing the right to sell is at its highest since June 29, two days before the Swiss currency strengthened to a record. The franc will appreciate 3.78 percent to 1.30 per euro in three-to-six months, said Manuel Oliveri, a strategist in Zurich at UBS AG, the nation’s biggest bank.

Switzerland’s economy is picking up as government data on Aug. 6 showed unemployment slid to the lowest level in more than a year last month and the central bank in June raised its 2010 growth forecast to about 2 percent, double what the European Central Bank predicts for its members. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Aug. 5 the economy may weaken in the second half as austerity measures hobble nations such as Greece and Spain.

“Austerity measures will hamper growth in Europe, put pressure on the single currency and support the franc,” said Oliveri at UBS, the world’s second-largest currency trader. “Even if concerns have waned that the euro area may break up, growth expectations in Europe are subdued compared to Switzerland.”

/... http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-13/swiss-franc-resumes-advance-as-economy-strengthens.html

[Ghost Dog]

42. Europe's Feint

The euro has been sold hard across the board in recent days, taking numerous investors and observers by surprise. After all, the European sovereign debt crisis that was so threatening earlier this year had been resolved, the fiscal austerity measures announced had re-earned the market’s confidence, and the economies had strengthened in Q2 after nearly stagnating in Q1. No less an authority that the ECB President himself suggested that Q3 was off to a fine start.

At the same time, we are told that US policy makers have no sound fiscal strategy and under the weight of structural problems. Additionally the world’s biggest economy slowed down sharply in Q2 after above trend growth in Q4 09 and Q1 10. So what happened that sparked a nearly 5% drop in the euro over the past few days?

The most compelling explanation requires returning to the European crisis. There was a liquidity dimension to the crisis and a solvency component. Officials addressed the first by increasing the liquidity facilities and provisions by the ECB, altering collateral rules for borrowing from it, and purchasing covered and sovereign bonds in the secondary market.

Europe bluffed its way through the solvency issue. Besides a direct EU-IMF package for Greece, European officials claimed to have put together a 750 bln euro facility. They did no such thing.

/Read on... http://seekingalpha.com/article/220425-europe-s-feint?source=yahoo

"The money will be there if, where and when needed", it is said.

[ozymandius]

7. M&A Losers in $10 Trillion Deal Binge Led by McClatchy, Sprint

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- More than half of the 100 biggest takeovers made during the last mergers-and-acquisitions boom have something in common: By one measure, they never should have happened.

The stocks of 53 companies that made the biggest purchases from 2005 to 2008 lagged behind industry peers two years later, according to data compiled by Bloomberg’s ranking group. Among the worst performers were McClatchy Co., Boston Scientific Corp., and Sprint Nextel Corp., all three of which are now valued at less than the price they paid for their acquisitions.

Best, Worst

Suez SA, the best-performing acquirer in Bloomberg’s ranking, was boosted when it also became a takeover target. Paris-based Suez purchased shares in Belgium’s Electrabel SA that it didn’t already own for about 12.6 billion euros ($16.2 billion). Suez was itself later bought by Gaz de France SA, helping the shares beat a benchmark index by 83 percentage points.

McClatchy’s purchase of the Knight Ridder Inc. newspaper chain, for $4.1 billion in 2006, ranked the worst of the 100 on Bloomberg’s list, with McClatchy shares underperforming the Bloomberg Advertising Age AdMarket 50 Index by 93 percentage points. Sacramento, California-based McClatchy borrowed cash to buy the chain as newspaper real-estate advertising plunged. Elaine Lintecum, McClatchy’s treasurer, declined to comment.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWxrVlejdq7Q

[ozymandius]

8. The great false choice, stimulus or austerity

The debate on the need for further fiscal stimulus or quicker retrenchment has become too ideological, and too extreme. Underneath it, however, there is more agreement on the basics than may be apparent at first blush. Indeed, despite the warring comments that have appeared in these pages, there is actually no necessary conflict between restoring fiscal sustainability and maintaining support for the recovery.

Despite rising fears of a double-dip recession in both the US and UK in recent days, the basic facts remain unchallenged. Government debt in advanced Group of 20 countries will reach 115 per cent of gross domestic product by 2015 – almost 40 percentage points above pre-crisis levels. Some commentators look at these numbers and question the earlier fiscal stimulus. But only a 10th of this new debt is attributable to those attempts to boost their economies. The vast majority is due to the recession, and related revenue losses. No one believes that budgets should have been cut to offset this revenue loss. Indeed, allowing deficits to increase put a floor under what otherwise would have been a calamitous collapse in demand.

The future goal is to achieve what the G20 terms “strong, sustainable, and balanced growth”. This surely requires a return to fiscal sustainability, which demands credible medium-term fiscal plans. The first goal should be to stabilise debt-to-GDP ratios. To do this over the next five years means an average improvement in structural budget deficits of 1 per cent a year in G20 countries. Continuing roughly at this rate for five more years and then stabilising would bring down average debt levels to 60 per cent of GDP by 2030.

Back-loaders respond that, if hasty adjustment derails growth, credibility will also be a casualty. To use Larry Summers’ apt expression, recent growth numbers show that advanced economies have not yet achieved escape velocity. Withdrawing fiscal accommodation too early could therefore jeopardise the recovery, especially when – measures announced this week by the Fed notwithstanding – the monetary policy arsenal has been effectively drained. When private demand picks up, they argue, consolidation will be easier and safer.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea8e8acc-a57b-11df-a5b7-00144feabdc0.html

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My gut roils over using Larry Summers as some kind of intellectual model. But as the commentary says - the expression is 'apt'.

[ozymandius]

9. Ritholtz: Fannie Freddie NYT OpEds

There are two OpEds in today’s New York Times regarding the GSEs. One of them is full of insight and intelligence and rationality.

The other is by John Carney.

The insightful column, Say Goodbye to Fannie and Freddie, was written by former St. Louis Fed president Bill Poole.

During the credit bubble and housing boom, the Alan Greenspan led FOMC was terribly irresponsible in their actions and inactions. But there were two voices of reason at the Fed: Ed Gramlich and Bill Poole. Both were unfortunately ignored by the Maestro (as he was then known). Gramlich warned against subprime loans and predatory lending, while Poole was a sharp critic of the GSEs.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/fannie-freddie-nyt-opeds/

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Here is a link to Professor Poole's piece in which he says that we should expect Fannie and Freddie to be euthanized really soon. From his column:

The danger in having any new mortgage agency is that its guarantees would subsidize mortgage risk, eventually leading to further taxpayer losses. The only sure way to prevent that outcome is to phase out Fannie and Freddie. If the home finance market were fully private, then it would bear the losses from its own mistakes in pricing and insurance. The proper government role is regulatory oversight and not direct operation of financial firms.

Poole also takes the position that Fannie and Freddie not only joined the bubble brigade parade, but they also led the way.

[Demeter]

12. Say Goodbye to Fannie and Freddie

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/12/opinion/12poole.html?_r=1

THE Federal National Mortgage Association — known as Fannie Mae — and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation — Freddie Mac — were poorly structured from the time, 40 years ago, when they were set up as so-called government-sponsored enterprises. Both of these technically private companies, designed to foster the issuance of home mortgages, enjoyed implicit federal backing in the event they got into financial trouble but only weak regulation to prevent such trouble. Essentially, the federal government insured the companies’ liabilities but never charged a premium.

Fannie and Freddie had a license to print money. They could borrow at an interest rate only a bit over the Treasury rate and then accumulate large portfolios of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities earning the market rate. What a deal — borrow at the low rate, invest at a higher one, hold little capital and let the federal government bear the risk! Investors enjoyed high returns, and management enjoyed high salaries. Incidentally, politicians also got a steady flow of campaign contributions from the companies’ executives....

...Fannie and Freddie could not be shuttered immediately; they are too large. A sensible transition plan would have them stop buying new mortgages, and their portfolios would decline as the mortgages they own are paid down. Within 10 years, the portfolios would shrink to insignificance.

Their securitization business, whereby they purchase mortgages and issue securities against them, should likewise be wound down. A practical approach would be to set a gradually rising schedule of fees, motivating private companies to enter the securitization business.

In 10 or 15 years, the companies would be gone, closing a chapter in American financial history that enjoyed considerable success but ended very badly and at great taxpayer cost.

AUTHOR IS FROM THE CATO INSTITUTE

[ozymandius]

10. Have a great Friday, folks.

:donut: :donut: :donut: Time to prepare for the day. Back this afternoon. :hi:

[DemReadingDU]

14. The Hindenburg Omen Has Arrived

8/12/10 The Hindenburg Omen Has Arrived

Easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the bullishly inclined) is the dreaded Hindenburg Omen. Those who know what it is, tend to have an atavistic reaction to its mere mention. Those who do not, can catch up on its implications courtesy of Wikipedia, but in a nutshell: "The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6th 1937, during which the German zeppelin was destroyed in a sudden conflagration."

Granted, the Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a crash, and the five criteria that must be met for a Hindenburg trigger typically need to reoccur within 36 days for reconfirmation. Yet the statistics are startling: "Looking back at historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty-days." The last Hindenburg Omen occurred during the lows of 2009. Today, we just had another (unconfirmed) Hindenburg Omen. It is time to batten down the hatches - something big is coming.

Click to read the 5 criteria of The Hindenburg Omen
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hindenburg-omen-here

[girl gone mad]

17. Hindenburg Omen..

I had to Wiki it..

Hindenburg Omen

The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis pattern that is said to portend a stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6, 1937, during which the German zeppelin Hindenburg was destroyed.

History

The Omen is said to have originated with Jim Miekka. Kennedy, who was probably the foremost expert on the Omen (and associated with the Sudbury Report), suggested to his friend Kennedy Gammage that the pattern be dubbed the "Hindenburg Omen" after that ill-fated dirigible.

Mechanics

The Hindenburg Omen is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market—specifically the NYSE.

The main goal of the indicator is to determine if a higher overall probability exists such that a stock market crash has a higher likelihood than normal.

The Hindenburg Omen can also assess to a limited extent if a probability of a severe decline is on average higher than normal.

The general rationale behind the indicator is that "under normal conditions" either

1. A substantial number of stocks set new annual highs
2. A substantial number of stocks set new annual lows
3. Conditions 1 & 2 cannot both take place at the same time, it is either one or the other—but not both

However, this indicator mainly tracks new lows and downside risk. This is a part of its strength and part of its weakness.

A healthy market requires some degree of internal uniformity, whether the direction of that uniformity is up or down.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen">more...

[Hugin]

21. ".... like storm chasing in the Hindenburg."

Thats one of my favorite phrases I've coined over the years to describe a misapplication of a fragile and largely kludged technology to disastrous proportions. (An application usually suggested by Management... Typically.)

Nice to see it recognized on Wall St. Some of the biggest practitioners of this fallacy.

Thanks for looking that up. :)

[Demeter]

22. I Rather Think It's Like Malcom Gladstone's Tipping Point

at which time all hell breaks loose because the foundations have been totally undermined.....

I haven't read far enough into the book to see if he has anything besides descriptive data--like how to recognize and/or how to deal with same. Prevention is always the best medicine, but I think the patient is too far gone for that. It may be too far gone for meaningful rehabilitation, also.

It's such an appropriate time to consider catastrophe--Friday the 13th came on a Friday, this month. Which is our theme for the weekend, by the way.

[florida08]

26. oh chit

there's a 25% probability of a full-blown stock-market crash in the next 120 days.
So in about 8 months there could be a 50% chance. That would be around April. I belive the DOW was at it's lowest point in March '09.

[alterfurz]

30. ach du lieber!

[Po_d Mainiac]

44. +1

:spray:

[Festivito]

20. Debt: 08/11/2010 13,307,871,897,992.93 (DOWN 11,959,038,998.10) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)
A huge vault, no exit, standing water, putrid and humid.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,778,639,712,764.28 + 4,529,232,185,228.65
UP 95,029,920.46 + DOWN 12,054,068,918.56

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,227.27 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,859,193 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,948.13.
A family of three owes $128,844.38. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 4,750,709,056.04.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,800,567,244.83.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,455,061,131.66.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 216 reports in 315 days of FY2010 averaging 6.47B$ per report, 4.44B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 893 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/11/2010 13,307,871,897,992.93 BHO (UP 2,680,994,849,079.85 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,398,042,894,481.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,619,954,465,033.77 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/22/2010 +010,637,573,043.16 ------------**********
07/23/2010 -000,409,271,286.12 ---
07/26/2010 +000,027,014,896.10 ------------******* Mon
07/27/2010 +000,542,206,084.16 ------------********
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******

90,975,039,718.68 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4501081&mesg_id=4501128

[Festivito]

51. Debt: 08/12/2010 13,317,048,837,517.12 (UP 9,176,939,524.19) (Thu)

(Up some. Good day.)
A new school, paid with borrowed money, soon to become a failure, then a forclosure, then an impediment to future public schooling. My guess.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,787,069,744,688.51 + 4,529,979,092,828.61
UP 8,430,031,924.23 + UP 746,907,599.96

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,227.20 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,865,839 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,976.82.
A family of three owes $128,930.46. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 5,105,242,630.79.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,084,194,104.63.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,952,445,907.71.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 217 reports in 316 days of FY2010 averaging 6.48B$ per report, 4.45B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 892 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/12/2010 13,317,048,837,517.12 BHO (UP 2,690,171,788,604.04 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,407,219,834,005.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,625,427,972,822.69 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/23/2010 -000,409,271,286.12 ---
07/26/2010 +000,027,014,896.10 ------------******* Mon
07/27/2010 +000,542,206,084.16 ------------********
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********

88,767,498,599.75 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4502401&mesg_id=4502481

[Dr.Phool]

23. A precautionary adios, friends.

I may be gone soon.

[Hugin]

24. It was nice knowing ya, dude.

"Until We Meet Again"


(Sorry, this was so overdone I had to post it. :rofl: )


Here... This is more like it: "We'll Meet Again"


Edit: Add "We'll Meet Again"; Changed out "Dr. Strangelove-esque" for Katherine Jenkins.

[Roland99]

40. ha..one of the Wheel of Fortune clues last night was

Happy Trails To You Until We Meet Again

[hamerfan]

25. Dr. Phool...

Adios if true. I'm sorry to hear it.
Can I ask if this would be a temporary exit, or one of the permanent variety?

[Dr.Phool]

27. I've been stepping on some tails in Jonestown.

That's like ordering a deluxe pizza.

DU used to be an oasis of sanity in a crazy world. Now it's being turned into a tar pit that sucks the life out of everyone who steps into it. And the Admins let them get away with it.

If it happens, you know where I'll be.

[AnneD]

32. Oh...

the huge manatee!!!!!

[DemReadingDU]

33. uh oh

but as Tansy says
NTY
:)

[florida08]

28. what exactly

do you mean by 'gone'?

[Demeter]

37. He means tombstoned

Don't do it, Doc!

[florida08]

39. 86'ed?

Heavens noooooo

[Roland99]

41. don't fret much

may not happen.


I've had a couple of posts deleted when in threads dealing with the cheerleaders and the willfully ignorant.

[DoBotherMe]

43. Go to the Lounge

You'll be safe. Warriors from GD take breathers there all the time. The lizards will say "we agree with you." :hug: Dana ; )

[Hugin]

29. Update: Oracle sues Google over Java use in Android (CW)

By James Niccolai

IDG News Service - Oracle has filed a lawsuit against Google, charging that its Android phone software infringes Oracle patents and copyrights related to Java, Oracle said Thursday.

"In developing Android, Google knowingly, directly and repeatedly infringed Oracle's Java-related intellectual property. This lawsuit seeks appropriate remedies for their infringement," Oracle spokeswoman Karen Tillman said in a statement.

The suit was filed Thursday in U.S. District Court in San Francisco and seeks a jury trial.

Google could not immediately be reached for comment on the lawsuit.

More... http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9180678/Update_Oracle_sues_Google_over_Java_use_in_Android?taxonomyId=15

____________________________________________________________________

It was only a matter of time before Oracle started trying to make money off of Java.

[DemReadingDU]

38. Artist's Rendering Of Barack Obama's Desktop

ZeroHedge: Continuing on the ever popular series of Artist Renderings of infamous desktops, which now includes Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, and Lloyd Blankfein, we present the most recent addition: that of dear leader himself.





http://www.zerohedge.com/article/artists-rendering-barack-obamas-desktop

[Demeter]

46. Looks Like an Oscillation Building Up to Something Big

As in big catastrophe.

[TalkingDog]

49. 23 Occupations That Will Never Recover From the Great Recession.

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/economy/23-occupations-that-will-never-recover-from-the-great-recession/?p=16328/

Hmmm...whaddaya know Natural Scientist and Philosopher isn't on the list.....

I'm good.

[Hugin]

52. I don't dare look.

:scared:

[AnneD]

53. Not if the...

Creationists have their way!