STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday July 22

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday July 22, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 21, 2010

Dow... 10,120.53 -109.43 (-1.07%)
Nasdaq... 2,187.33 -35.16 (1.58%)
S&P 500... 1,069.59 -13.89 (-1.28%)
Gold future... 1,184 -7.60 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.88 -.00 (-0.07%)
30-Year Bond 3.89 -0.01 (-0.21%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 07/17
Briefing.com 440K
Consensus 445K
Prior 429K

08:30 Continuing Claims 07/10
Briefing.com 4600K
Consensus 4600K
Prior 4681K

10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun
Briefing.com 5.40M
Consensus 5.09M
Prior 5.66M

10:00 Leading Indicators Jun
Briefing.com -0.4%
Consensus -0.4%
Prior 0.4%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

16. Initial Claims @ 464,000 - last wk rev'd up 2k

U.S. continuing claims down 223,000 to 4.49 mln

U.S. 4-week avg. claims up 1,250 to 456,000

U.S. jobless claims up 37,000 to 464,000

[Dr.Phool]

17. A lot worse than expected.

Wait until the continuing claims start counting all of those people who ran out of benefits.

[ozymandius]

26. Catastrophically high UE numbers continue.

No amount of rhetoric will make this fugliness go away.

Posting from my phone at the dentist office.

[Dr.Phool]

28. But, it's better.

It has to be. I read it in the Jonestown Journal!

[AnneD]

20. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. In the words of the Grateful Dead-what a long strange trip it's been. As some of you may know, I am in the process of filing for my Cherokee Nation Roll Card. It seems I am not the only one. Every one is coming out of the wood work. I saw them send the person ahead of me back to the library because her ancestor was not In the territory during the time frame. There was a uptake when a member of Congress accused he Cherokee Nation of denying citizenship to Cherokee with African American ancestry.

Once blacks were freed, they could own their own land. The cheapest land they could get was near the Indian Territory-thus the inter-racial marriages. There are valid claims but there are many that want the benefits. Cherokee take care of their own and always have, thus the generous benefits-but they have gotten strict. When you apply, you have to dot your i's and cross your t's.

So after the lady left, I went up to the counter and told the clerk that I was here to apply for a card for myself and my daughter. She asked if either of my parents had a card , I said no but I had a birth certificate. Before she could say anything my brother came forward and said that he was my brother and he had a card. It was amazing. Her whole attitude changed. She gave me all the paperwork, and started the paperwork for my daughter. I thought we would breeze through, but the Ft.Worth vital stats office gave me the wrong birth certificate (even though I explained what I needed it for). She showed me what to look for and ask about and told me there was a 15 month waiting list. Mt brother needed a white card and applied for one. He was told it would be 7 weeks (he said he usually gets them in 2 weeks). He told me that if the birth certificate had been the right one-I would have been approved right then and got I card in 2 weeks.

We headed back to his home. I left for Houston with the pups yesterday. I decided that I would go to Austin today and pick up a birth certificate for my daughter and myself. Afterward I will go up to my brother's and then head up to the Rez on Friday. My brother can't go this time but since it was just a few days ago, I think she will remember us. I think it will go much smoother this time. This is the only time I have to do this and it is long overdue. Doing this now will save me months of waiting later, thus my crazy, convoluted road trip.

So in the space of 5 days, I will have gone to a town outside of Dallas, to Ft. Worth, to Tahlequah Okla, to my brother's, back to Houston and now in Austin. I will leave here for my brother's and then up to the nations and back home for a friend's party on Saturday. A group of my Nurse friends are having a ladies only hot tub sleep over party. I can't miss that, I don't care how much my butt is dragging.

I will write later about my impression, but it has been an interesting trip. I have much to do so I will take leave. Good luck at the casinos. :hi:

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Roland99]

22. That's a lot of work for some frustrating results so far

but sounds like you've got it figured out. Hope it does go smoothly on the next trip back!

And just be careful of that hot tub, I heard about some group of guys who jumped in one and it sent them back in time!! holy cow!



;-)

[AnneD]

29. I think I may have found a hitch already.....

I may not be able to get the long certificate today. We'll see. If I can't get it, there is no point in going back to the CN (Cherokee Nation) again. So I will just shuttle back home and wait for the hurricane.

And about the hot tub-we might not mind going back in time. But then again, we might be too 'relaxed' to notice.

[TalkingDog]

39. AnneD this is for folks in your area only?

I looked into it in NC years ago, when I had definitive ancestors to point to, but that was before the internet was widely available .....gasp..... and the text based info suggested that folks over 21 were not considered.

[AnneD]

53. My paternal grandparents had.....

relatives on the Dawes Roll, one of the census done after the Trail of Tears. They lived in Stilllwell near the CN capital of Tahlequah. Most everyone else married back into the tribe-my Dad married my Mom so we are more or less the white branch of the family tree. She probably has at least 1/4 but it is not as well documented as Dad's. I am half and my daughter is 1/4.

Now I don't know about the changes that were made.

Check this site...

www.cherokee.org

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers below $77 on US supplies, equities

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered below $77 a barrel Thursday in Asia as growing U.S. crude supplies and weak stock markets undermined investor optimism.

Crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week according to the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration, suggesting a consumption recovery in the U.S. remains muted. Supplies grew by about 400,000 barrels while analysts had expected a fall of 1.6 million barrels.

Falling stock markets also dragged on oil prices as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.0 percent Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned the U.S. economic recovery was fragile. Asian stocks were mixed Thursday.

In other Nymex trading in August contracts, heating oil fell 0.61 cent to $1.9953 a gallon, gasoline gained 0.47 cent to $2.0725 a gallon and natural gas added 1.7 cents to $4.530 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Bernanke says Fed to act if U.S. recovery stalls

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve stands ready to ease monetary policy further if the budding U.S. economic recovery withers, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday, describing the outlook as "unusually uncertain."

Policymakers, however, still expect growth to be sustained despite a recent softening in the economy, Bernanke said in congressional testimony, playing down the risk of renewed recession and the possibility of deflation.

The economy resumed growth about a year ago, but stubbornly high unemployment, a fresh drop in housing activity and a slowdown in manufacturing have raised fears of a "double-dip" recession.

Pressed on what the Fed could do to ease monetary policy further, Bernanke said it could reinvest mortgage bonds that are rolling off its balance sheet or engage in further debt purchases. It could also lower the rate it pays banks to park their excess reserves at the Fed, he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100722/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_bernanke

[ozymandius]

4. Lindsey: U.S. entering deflation trap, to ease more

TOKYO (Reuters) – Former Federal Reserve board member Lawrence Lindsey said on Thursday it will be "obvious" by the end of this year that the U.S. economy has entered a "deflationary trap."

"We know from (Fed) Chairman (Ben) Bernanke's recent comments that it is now at least a concern ... By the end of this year I think it will be quite clear," Lindsey said in an economic forum in Tokyo.

Former Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said in the same forum that Japan will need a "considerable time" to overcome deflation as growth expectations remain subdued.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100722/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_deflation

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Just as Krugman said - we are repeating the mistakes that Japan made twenty years ago. Zombie banks and monetarists gone wild are sucking the life out of our economic engine.

[girl gone mad]

19. In the end, Krugman caved and supported the bank bailouts.

I don't know what that guy's deal is sometimes.

;)

[Warpy]

37. The guy's deal is that he knew what a total collapse would mean

but knew damned full well there should have been a lot more regulation of that bailout--strings the size of suspension bridge cables.

That bailout was necessary. The way it passed was a ripoff and we all know it.

[ozymandius]

50. To be fair, it was qualified support.

The bailout was intended to save the credit markets. A credit market collapse, which nearly happened, would have shut down the world-wide money conveyor. The frustrating part of the deal is, as Warpy says, banksters cornered the international credit markets and became de facto recipients of extreme taxpayer charity. The main culprit of this modern failure is the repo instruments that brought Lehman down.

Rather than relying on deposits as the movie "It's a Wonderful Life" would demonstrate - investors demanded their money back from banks when fear ruled the markets after Lehman tanked. This was money that banks did not have at a finger-snap notice because investor money was tied up in a variety of loans. Overnight loans amounting to billions of dollars are quite commonplace. That market started to shut down. The result was a the same effect as a 1930's style bank run. Collapse of this magnitude would have wiped out everything: good, bad and in-between.

It sucks that soulless ghouls like those who created this mess should be rescued. This handful of villainous banksters should have been thrown out the door when their banks were nationalized - as should have happened. To that point: I know that Krugman would be in agreement.

[DemReadingDU]

51. The banksters won't change their gambling ways

and some of those finance regulations aren't taking effect until 2012. So it's highly likely that a credit market collapse could still occur that would shut down the entire global finance system.
:(

[ozymandius]

52. That is the horrifying part of reform.

That aspect of human behavior makes me abandon my liberal tendencies. I wish to change bankster behavior through force of law. I wish there were some panacea. But short of immediate legislation and immediate possibility of imprisonment, I do not know what to do.

[Po_d Mainiac]

11. July 21 (Bloomberg)

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said central bankers “remain prepared” to act as needed to aid growth even as they get ready to eventually raise interest rates from almost zero and shrink a record balance sheet.
snip>
While Fed officials plan for the exit, “we also recognize that the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain,” Bernanke said today in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. “We will continue to carefully assess ongoing financial and economic developments, and we remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation’s productive potential in a context of price stability.”
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a55o1_O7YN7Q&pos=1
……………………….
Translation: We shot our wad by giving all the money to Banks and PPE's, but as soon as the Viagra kicks in, we are prepared to try again. There are potentially more jobs that can be outsourced offshore. We will strive to keep the price of 4G devices within the budget of the average unemployed American.

Somehow the “maestro” got away with drivel, but I doubt that Bumhanky can pull off the same…YMMV

[hamerfan]

13. "unusually uncertain."

This must be a loose translation for "irrational exuberance". Seems to have had the same effect.
hamerfan

[TalkingDog]

41. I'm disappointed

Not once does the word "unexpected" appear.....

[Joe Chi Minh]

47. Oh, I think "unusually uncertain" more than makes up for it. Between the

two, we get a hilarious picture of blind, blithering idiots bumbling around in a dark room looking for a black cat that isn't there -to adapt a host of similar metaphors to describe metaphysicians and the like. The wittiest, alas, referring to a theologian, who finds it.

[TalkingDog]

42. I'm disappointed

Not once does the word "unexpected" appear.....

[Dr.Phool]

14. If?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

"If" someone hits him over the head with an axe handle and screams "IT'S ALREADY WITHERED YOU FRIGGIN MORON", he'll continue doing the same thing he's been doing, expecting a different result.

[ozymandius]

5. Stock futures rise sharply, point to rebound

NEW YORK – Stocks were set for a strong rebound Thursday after some encouraging signs of growth in Europe and as another big batch of earnings could provide better insight into the recovery. Futures rose sharply.

European markets rose after a report showed unexpected economic growth in the 16-nation group that uses the euro. In recent months, investors worldwide have been concerned that mounting government debt in Europe would stall a global recovery. A jump in Europe's purchasing managers index is welcome relief for those prediction contraction on the continent.

The jump in futures also comes a day after investors sold stocks because Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Congress that the economy remains fragile. Bernanke confirmed investors' fears that the best scenario for the economy is only slow growth and relatively high unemployment. That sent the Dow Jones industrial average down nearly 110 points Wednesday.

Ahead of the opening bell, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 118, or 1.2 percent, to 10,176. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 14.50, or 1.4 percent, to 1,078.40, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 19.50, or 1.1 percent, to 1,835.00.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100722/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/us_wall_street

[Roland99]

18. All it takes is a few majors reporting a decent rise in earnings and it's Bull Market Time!

Great for the globo-conglomos who offshore their profits and make those profits by paying workers (aka slaves) in third world countries a mere pittance for a whole day's work that wouldn't even buy a fast food meal here in the U.S.

[DemReadingDU]

21. Most are probably using creative accounting

to show their so-called profits

[Roland99]

24. Be interesting to see a breakdown of profits/losses by country for these multi-nationals

[girl gone mad]

23. Have you heard Max Keiser's comments recently..

on the emerging "digital currency" systems?

For example, the Facebook game Farmville has teamed up with 7-11 to offer real world store credits to players as a reward for whatever it is that amounts to winning in Farmville. So after spending all day playing this game, you will have enough credit to go buy a Slurpee.

Anyhow, Keiser thinks earning well below minimum wage through these digital reward schemes is the future of work in America. We already have crowd sourcing and endless amounts of free blogging/writing. Maybe he is right and in the future kids will design games, web sites and apps for credits which will enable them to buy Red Bull and Doritos. Stay at home parents will earn free diapers by answering customer complaints on chat boards. Musicians will trade their songs for McDonald's breakfast sandwiches.

The possibilities are limitless!

[Roland99]

25. As if society isn't brain-dead enough.....

I mean, look at stuff like this:

http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/web/07/12/live.music.web/index.html?hpt=Sbin

For the fans live music on the web offers not only access to their favorite bands and the opportunity to catch shows they can't make in person, but also a fully rounded social experience, as broadcasters now fully integrate streams with social media.

"What we do is unite the people at the show with those people watching at home by uniting their Twitter feeds, their Facebook posts, Facebook chat," says Scarpa.

*Seriously*????


Although, with the way TicketBastard jacks up ticket prices, it's getting harder to see someone in person without mortgaging the homestead. But, seriously, watching something live on the internet is NOTHING like being there in person and millions will never understand that.

[Dr.Phool]

27. I cringed when I paid for Springsteen tickets last year.

And then they had the nerve to want $11 for a draft beer.

[AnneD]

33. Hubby is a musician.....

and we have this debate often. We accept the fact that we are background music at a wedding. But what is hard to accept is that DJ's are more and more supplanting live musicians. There is a place for both and I can understand the draw, but nothing is as good as the real thing. We have become a society of watchers and not participants-lookers not doers. We are so lucky in Texas to have many and numerous venues for live music and folks do patronize live music. It really does artists. Same with the visual arts too.

[Roland99]

34. Buddy of mine is probably leaving KY in a year

to pursue his musical interests. He's beyond burned-out in the IT world and has the talent to make it recording his own music. Nashville is a high probability. It's picking up for newer music outside of just country or alt-country (Jack White hangs there as well as Lucero)

I love seeing festivals like Bonnaroo or Lollapalooza or Forecastle keeping live music going.

[Dr.Phool]

36. It's a rough business.

My nephew is the hottest guitarist in St. Louis. Played in a couple of bands, made albums, and did world tours. Last year, he was one of 2 finalists to be the new guitarist for Guns n Roses.

You'd think he would make a lot more money, but that's not the case. Now, he works days running a high-end guitar store, and playing gigs at night. Every December, they do a sold out (last year, was 7 nights) large venue Pink Floyd tribute. He's the lead guitarist. And that one gig sets him up for most of the year.

But, the most important thing is, he's happy.

[Roland99]

38. That's the key...do what makes you happy.

He's long been stuck in IT, partly due to me encouraging him and helping get further in his career when I hired him on as a contractor for me and pulled him out of the temp agency he'd been working for.

Dude has more talent than about 99.9% of what's in the music industry today and it pains me to see it not being utilized. I feel that changing soon.

[wordpix]

45. my friend does children's edutainment/music & no one's hiring anymore

He used to do lots of bday parties---no more. Used to do lots of historic centers and museums and schools but no more. Now living on a pittance from a few gigs (if he's lucky) per month. Sad. He's really talented.

[hamerfan]

31. Thanks for the link, Roland!

I guess I'll be sticking to the local live scene, because except for Jeff Beck, no one is worth the price of the tickets these days.
And no, watching a show on the internet is NOT the same experience as being there. But I wish them all the luck in the world.

[rfranklin]

32. It's like rats in a Skinner box....

pushing the little buttons on their I phones to get a food pellet.

[hamerfan]

48. LOL! Love it!

Jeez, the mental image that conjures up.

[ozymandius]

6. SEC votes to scrap mutual fund '12b-1' fees

BOSTON – The Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday voted to revamp fees that most mutual funds charge to cover sales and distribution costs, and that have become a source of confusion for investors and industry insiders alike.

Revenue from so-called "12b-1" fees can be used for a wide range of fund services beyond upfront sales costs, and an investor can pay the fees for years after they've gotten into a fund, eroding returns. Even industry pros find 12b-1s confusing, because funds can use the fee revenue in so many different ways beyond compensating brokers selling funds.

The commission voted unanimously in Washington to adopt changes proposed by the SEC staff to limit investor costs and improve fee disclosure. The rules are subject to a 90-day public comment period.

Funds could still charge loads to individuals at the time of purchase or cover sales costs on an ongoing basis. But the total amount an investor pays would be capped after a set number of years, so that the total wouldn't exceed the amount the investor would have paid had sales costs been covered upfront. For example, a fund that charges a 4 percent sales load could deduct no more than 4 percent over time from an investor not paying upfront.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100721/ap_on_bi_ge/us_sec_fund_fees

[ozymandius]

7. What 12b-1 Reform Means for Investors

...
Under the new language, funds can still collect the 0.25 percent "marketing and service" fee in perpetuity. As a result, the SEC proposal primarily affects the broker fees collected under the 0.75 percent cap. Essentially, these annual fees have served as an ongoing sales charge levied upon investors. In other words, whereas many investors who are in share classes with front-end loads pay their sales fees upfront, investors in other share classes have seen these charges spread out over time.

In many instances, investors have paid out more in these "ongoing fees" than they would have had they opted for a front-end load. Under the SEC's proposal, there would be more parity. For instance, a fund where the highest front-end load is 5 percent would be barred from having ongoing sales fees add up over time to more than 5 percent. In other words, once the investor has paid, via ongoing sales fees, the equivalent of the maximum front-end sales load for a fund, the ongoing sales charges would stop. The SEC proposal would also do away with the term "12b-1."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/20100721/ts_usnews/what12b1reformmeansforinvestors

[ozymandius]

8. FTSE climbs on iPad results, Wall Street surge

LONDON (AFP) – London shares advanced on Wednesday along with other European shares, buoyed by strong results from iPad maker Apple and a late overnight surge on Wall Street.

The FTSE 100 index of leading shares added 1.46 percent to close at 5,214.64 points.

Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) was the most traded stock for the second day running seeing 134 million shares switch owners, followed by Vodafone, which saw 114 million units change hands.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100721/wl_uk_afp/stocksbritainclose

[ozymandius]

9. EU Banks May Disclose Sovereign-Debt Holdings With Stress Tests

July 22 (Bloomberg) --

European regulators asked the region’s biggest banks to publish a list of each lender’s gross and net exposure to central and local governments in 30 countries in the region, including Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal, according to a confidential draft template obtained by Bloomberg News.

European Union regulators are examining the strength of 91 banks to determine if they can survive potential losses from both a recession and a decline in the value of their government- bond holdings. The tests are being used to reassure investors about the health of financial institutions from Germany’s WestLB AG and Bayerische Landesbank to Spanish savings banks as the debt crisis pummels the bonds of Greece, Spain and Portugal. Banks and regulators will release results of the tests tomorrow.

Banks will be asked to provide details of whether they booked their sovereign-debt holdings in the banking or trading book, according to the template, which was dated July 15. The document will show debt holdings for the 27 EU members as well as Liechtenstein, Norway and Iceland.

Under accounting rules, banks have to adjust the value of sovereign bonds held in the trading book according to changes in market prices, said Konrad Becker, a financial analyst at Merck Finck & Co. in Munich. For government debt held in the banking book, lenders must write down the value only if there is serious doubt about a state’s ability to repay its debt in full or make interest payments, he said. Banks currently hold most of their government bonds in the banking book, according to Becker.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aODeyZj6c2TA&pos=6

[ozymandius]

10. 20% of Americans hit by major economic loss

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A new study released Wednesday estimates that 20% of Americans suffered a significant economic loss last year - the highest level in the past 25 years.

The new Economic Security Index looks at the interaction of three key variables that have a direct bearing on a person's economic security: income loss, medical expenses and debt.

The ESI defines people as economically insecure when their situation meets two criteria. First, within a year's time they have lost 25% or more of their available gross income. Available gross income is the money they have left over after paying for medical costs and debt. Second, they don't have enough in an emergency fund or other liquid reserves to make up the difference.

'Virtually all' groups affected

A large loss in income can occur for any of several reasons. The loss of a job is the most obvious. But even if one remains employed, income can vary because of a change in hours or wages, or because of a spike in medical expenses or debt payments.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/21/news/economy/economic_insecurity/index.htm

[hamerfan]

12. Hot Dog!

I'm a 20%er!
:fistbump:

[Festivito]

15. Debt: 07/20/2010 13,245,998,461,216.30 (UP 3,104,618,887.55) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Pay bills.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,687,662,217,654.16 + 4,558,336,243,562.14
UP 28,467,145.72 + UP 3,076,151,741.83

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,228.80 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,712,977 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,768.63.
A family of three owes $128,305.88. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 9,433,761,141.11.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,918,091,503.48.
The average for the last 32 days would be 6,485,710,784.52.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 200 reports in 293 days of FY2010 averaging 6.68B$ per report, 4.56B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 915 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 19.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/20/2010 13,245,998,461,216.30 BHO (UP 2,619,121,412,303.22 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,336,169,457,704.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,664,511,440,485.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue
07/07/2010 +000,013,416,608.65 ------------*******
07/08/2010 +011,830,915,605.93 ------------**********
07/09/2010 -000,134,583,926.15 ---
07/12/2010 -000,143,600,537.54 --- Mon
07/13/2010 +000,353,392,256.51 ------------********
07/14/2010 +000,197,224,468.53 ------------********
07/15/2010 +047,740,634,202.02 ------------**********
07/16/2010 +000,234,726,558.99 ------------********
07/19/2010 -000,002,380,240.85 ----- Mon
07/20/2010 +000,028,467,145.72 ------------*******

131,967,234,249.60 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4472862&mesg_id=4472895

[Festivito]

49. Debt: 07/21/2010 13,237,494,446,894.52 (DOWN 8,504,014,321.78) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Off today, didn't pay.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,687,664,673,045.60 + 4,549,829,773,848.92
UP 2,455,391.44 + DOWN 8,506,469,713.22

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,228.73 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,719,624 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,740.25.
A family of three owes $128,220.75. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 8,974,587,778.75.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,581,364,371.08.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 201 reports in 294 days of FY2010 averaging 6.61B$ per report, 4.52B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 914 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 19.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/21/2010 13,237,494,446,894.52 BHO (UP 2,610,617,397,981.44 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,327,665,443,382.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,648,292,132,090.89 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue
07/07/2010 +000,013,416,608.65 ------------*******
07/08/2010 +011,830,915,605.93 ------------**********
07/09/2010 -000,134,583,926.15 ---
07/12/2010 -000,143,600,537.54 --- Mon
07/13/2010 +000,353,392,256.51 ------------********
07/14/2010 +000,197,224,468.53 ------------********
07/15/2010 +047,740,634,202.02 ------------**********
07/16/2010 +000,234,726,558.99 ------------********
07/19/2010 -000,002,380,240.85 ----- Mon
07/20/2010 +000,028,467,145.72 ------------*******
07/21/2010 +000,002,455,391.44 ------------******

131,216,183,443.59 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4474185&mesg_id=4474232

[Roland99]

30. Casino's pulling in the suckers left and right this morning

Dow 10,282 +161 +1.59%
Nasdaq 2,234 +47 +2.16%
S&P 500 1,091 +21 +1.99%
GlobalDow 1,822 +33 +1.86%
Gold 1,194 +3 +0.22%
Oil 78.29 +1.73 +2.26%

[Roland99]

35. RGE Monitor on gold:

per email:

The concerns propelling the price of gold specifically are very real and should not be ignored. But is now the time for investors to jump the gold bandwagon? We wouldn’t encourage it. Our logic and our precise investment recommendations are spelled out in a recent RGE Strategy View, “All That Glitters is Not Gold,” which was released to clients early last week.

Why aren’t we giddy about gold? In short, our core economic forecast scenario does not entail any of the extreme events that could result in a major gold price spike—and given the fact that the metal has already surged in price, we see several potential downside risks.

In the abstract, gold is most attractive as a hedge in one of three extreme scenarios: high inflation, persistent deflation, or when the risk of global financial meltdown is large.

We think high inflation in the near-term is unlikely, given lingering slack in advanced economies. For prices to rise, there must be buyers, and weak employment in the U.S. and Europe, coupled with murky economic prospects, has led consumers to retrench and tighten their purse-strings.

[TalkingDog]

40. Next thing you know, we won't have a pot to piss in.

http://www.myfoxny.com/dpp/news/politics/newark-budget-cuts-20100722

Things are getting so bad in Newark that the mayor has ordered the government to stop buying toilet paper.

/snip


I don't know if I'm referencing a regional saying or not, so I'll expound:

(He's so poor...) "He ain't got a pot to piss in."

[TalkingDog]

43. Stock Market = Dick Cheney's heart

Just because it's pumping, doesn't mean it's alive.....

[DemReadingDU]

44. I can just picture a Frankenstein computer

some kind of monster Frankenstein computer of the Stock Market with a pump inflating it faster and faster keeping the market rallying higher and higher, until it implodes.
I wish I could find a suitable image in Google.

:evilgrin:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

46. 10K is not a magical number...

10K is not a magical number...
10K is not a magical number...
10K is not a magical number...
10K is not a magical number...