STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday July 14

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday July 14, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 13, 2010

Dow... 10,363.02 +146.75 (+1.42%)
Nasdaq... 2,242.03 +43.67 (+1.99%)
S&P 500... 1,095.34 +16.59 (+1.51%)
Gold future... 1,214 +0.20 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.11 -0.01 (-0.42%)
30-Year Bond 4.10 -0.01 (-0.15%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Retail Sales Jun
Briefing.com -0.2%
Consensus -0.2%
Prior -1.2%

08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun
Briefing.com -0.1%
Consensus 0.0%
Prior -1.1%

08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.6%

08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.5%

10:00 Business Inventories May
Briefing.com 0.3%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.4%

10:30 Crude Inventories 07/10
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -4.96M

14:00 Minutes of FOMC Meeting

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

24. Reports coming in

08:30 Retail Sales Jun -0.5%
08:30 ex-auto Jun -0.1%
08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun -0.2%
08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun -0.6%

[hamerfan]

29. Totally unexpected!

I am surprised. :sarcasm:

[Roland99]

32. U.S. retail sales fall 0.5% in June

U.S. retail sales fall 0.5% in June
Sales of durable goods, gasoline weaken, but soft goods come in stronger
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-fall-05-in-june-2010-07-14-83000

Sales at U.S. retailers declined 0.5% in June to a seasonally adjusted $360.2 billion, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday, further evidence that the economy has slowed.

...

Sales fell for the second straight month, on the heels of a string of seven consecutive increases, the government's data showed.

The figures "add to the growing batch of evidence suggesting that the economic recovery shifted into a lower gear towards the end of the second quarter," wrote Paul Dales, U.S. economist for Capital Economics.

"Many consumers have put off large purchases in an effort to shore up their personal balance sheet and to hedge against further economic slides," said Jim Baird, chief investment strategist for Plante Moran Financial Advisors.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers above $77 as US crude supplies rise

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $77 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after a report showed U.S. crude supplies rose unexpectedly last week, suggesting demand remains lackluster.

Crude inventories rose 1.7 million barrels last week the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday against a drop of 2.6 million barrels forecast in an analyst survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reports its weekly supply data later Wednesday.

In other Nymex trading in August contracts, heating oil fell 0.72 cent to $2.0402 a gallon, gasoline dropped 0.80 cent to $2.0741 a gallon and natural gas rose 1.5 cents to $4.369 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Home-buying applications sink to 13-year low

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Demand for loans to purchase U.S. homes sunk to a 13-year low last week, and refinancing demand also slid despite near record-low mortgage rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.

Requests for loans to buy homes dropped 3.1 percent in the week ended July 9, after adjusting for the Independence Day holiday, to the lowest level since December 1996, the industry group said.

Rock-bottom borrowing costs are helping borrowers with pristine credit to buy and those who still have equity in their homes to refinance.

But high unemployment and foreclosures remain major hurdles, and worries that prices could dip further are also keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100714/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_mortgages

[ozymandius]

4. Watchdog: Small banks struggling despite bailouts

WASHINGTON – To the list of economic woes squeezing small banks, add another one: government bailouts.

The Treasury Department's bailout program was designed with Wall Street megabanks in mind, according to a new watchdog report. The "one-size-fits-all" program may actually be hurting small banks that are struggling to repay the money or even deliver quarterly dividend payments, the report says.

The main bank bailout program anticipated banks springing back from the crisis and raising fresh funds to repay the government, the report says.

That's exactly what happened to most of the big banks that took the most bailout money. Yet small banks continue to struggle, dragged down by souring loans for commercial real estate and high unemployment. Hundreds more small banks are expected to fail by the end of next year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100714/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bailout_watchdog_small_banks

[ozymandius]

5. Ahead of the Bell: Retail Sales

WASHINGTON – Retail sales likely fell again in June, raising new worries over the strength of the economic rebound.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect retail sales dipped 0.2 percent last month following an even larger 1.2 percent fall in May. Excluding autos, the economists are looking for a flat reading after a 1.1 percent decline in May.

The report will be released by the Commerce Department at 8:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

The 1.2 percent fall in May retail sales had been the largest drop in eight months but economists had cautioned against reading too much into the dip because it followed two strong months of gains in retail sales.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100714/ap_on_bi_ge/us_retail_sales_ahead_of_the_bell

[Ghost Dog]

17. Retail Sales in U.S. Probably Dropped in June for Second Month

Purchases decreased 0.3 percent following a 1.2 percent drop in May, according to the median estimate of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Other reports may show the cost of imported goods declined and inventories climbed.

...

"Consumer spending has downshifted a bit," said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. "It supports the case for a relatively slow, choppy recovery. The Fed will certainly take the softer data into consideration, and any tightening is clearly off the table."

...

Economists trimmed projections for consumer spending this year to an average of 2.4 percent from 2.5 percent a month ago, according to this month's Bloomberg survey taken July 1 to July 8. They also marked down the 2010 growth estimate and said the jobless rate, which reached a 26-year high of 10.1 percent in October 2009, will average 9.6 percent this year.

/... http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/14/AR2010071400087.html

[ozymandius]

6. Fears grow as millions lose U.S. jobless benefits

Unemployment has remained stubbornly high at around 9.5 percent. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in June 6.8 million people or 45.5 percent of the total are long-term unemployed, or jobless for 27 weeks or more.

Before the recession began in late 2007, the unemployed received benefits, usually a few hundred dollars a week, for 26 weeks or around six months after losing their jobs.

Under the federal/state programs, which are administered by state governments and partly funded by taxes on business, only full-time workers are eligible for benefits. Within federal guidelines, benefits and eligibility vary from state to state.

During the Senate impasse, from the week ended June 5 to the week ended July 10, more than 2.1 million Americans lost their benefits. Another million will join them by July 31.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100714/ts_nm/us_usa_economy_unemployment

[ozymandius]

9. Americans in 70% Majority See More Jobless as Deficit Widens

More than 7 out of 10 Americans say the economy is mired in recession, and the country is conflicted over how to balance concerns over joblessness and the federal budget deficit, according to a Bloomberg National Poll.

Just like the experts, Americans are torn about whether the federal government should focus on curbing spending or creating jobs, the poll conducted July 9-12 shows. Seven of 10 Americans say reducing unemployment is the priority. At the same time, the public is skeptical of the Obama administration’s stimulus program and wary of more spending, with more than half saying the deficit is “dangerously out of control.”

This concern over spending extends to aid for the jobless. With unemployment at a near-record high of 9.5 percent in June, the public is closely split on whether another extension of jobless benefits, which is stalled in Congress, is worth the $34 billion cost.

More than half say they are responding to the economic climate by hunkering down. Fewer than a quarter say they are getting back to normal and only 16 percent are seeing opportunity and taking risks. The public’s posture is more pessimistic than the view of global investors polled a month earlier. In a poll of Bloomberg customers conducted June 2-3, more than twice as many respondents -- 35 percent -- said they are seeing opportunities and taking risks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-13/americans-in-70-majority-see-frozen-unemployment-as-budget-deficit-widens.html

[AnneD]

22. Why are we still calling this......

a recession. Sure seems like a Depression to me. Looking at the catastrophic unemployment-it should be called a depression. Some of these jobs are gone for good.

[ozymandius]

25. That would take guts Anne.

Plus people responsible would need to be held to account for getting us here.

This is a depression by almost every measure. But we will never hear that term uttered because too many reputations rely upon keeping up appearances.

[AnneD]

27. The Emperor has no clothes.....

There, I said it. I think more folks should start saying it too. Call them out on it and let them know we are not fooled.

[DemReadingDU]

52. Brian Williams and David Letterman said it

5/6/10 Watch this 3-minute video again with David Letterman and Brian Williams
'The world has no money and the emperor has no clothes.'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRNrl-858qA

[AnneD]

58. I missed that one......

thanks.

[Juneboarder]

37. I'm with ya!

But, wouldn't that be going against their agenda? Nothing goin' on over here folks; move along...

[Juneboarder]

36. I just learned about the "99'ers" yesterday...

It is a sad day to see how many people fit into this category termed 99'ers (those that have been unemployed for over 99 months and no longer eligible for benefits). When they reach this point, are they no longer counted in the unemployment numbers?

It's amazing, how with all the blatant red flags screaming economic trouble, the masses still trust the MSM with their crap about how we aren't headed for a depression, I mean double-dip recession... yea, we're just slowing down a bit..

[AnneD]

61. To discard people.....

seems so cruel.

[Juneboarder]

62. It's also completely cruel

for people to talk down on this important matter. Whoever thinks we are recovering slowly here is still sippin' the kool-aid. I can't imagine being one of these "99'ers" and having our economy be so downplayed, as if nothing is wrong.

I have a few family members affected by the unemployment benefits not being extended, and it hurts. It has to hurt most when all you can find are jobs paying 1/2 of what you used to make, if you're that lucky.

I wasn't asserting, though, that they are being discarded from the unemployment count... I was more asking, as I'm not sure.

[ozymandius]

7. European Stocks Snap Six-Day Rally; U.S. Futures Rise on Intel

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks retreated after a six-day rally pushed valuations to the highest level in two months, overshadowing a record profit forecast from Intel Corp. U.S. index futures and Asian stocks advanced.

ICAP Plc led declining shares after saying trading volumes “slowed significantly” in June. ITV Plc dropped 4 percent as BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research downgraded the stock. Technology companies limited declines as Intel, the world’s biggest chipmaker, jumped 6 percent in pre-market New York trading. ASML Holding NV surged 5.6 percent after reporting second-quarter profit that beat estimates.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.3 percent to 255.24 at 11:41 a.m. in London. The measure had risen 8.2 percent over the past six days, leaving the gauge trading at more than 16 times its companies’ reported profits, the highest valuation since May, according to Bloomberg data.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-14/european-stocks-snap-six-day-rally-u-s-futures-rise-on-intel.html

[ozymandius]

8. Asian Shares End Mostly Up; Intel Results Boost Tech Stocks

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Asian markets climbed Wednesday as Intel's strongest-ever quarterly results buoyed technology sector shares, while a robust economic picture in Singapore also aided sentiment.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average added 2.7%, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.9% and South Korea's Kospi rose 1.3%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.6% and China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.8%.

In afternoon trading, India's Sensex was down 0.2%, Indonesian shares advanced 0.7% and Thailand's SET Index rose 0.3%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 39 points in screen trade.

Elsewhere in the region, Taiwan's Taiex rose 1.5%, New Zealand's NZX 50 advanced 0.6% and Philippine shares climbed 1.1%.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100714-703953.html

[ozymandius]

10. Wall Street Fix Seen Ineffectual by Four of Five in U.S.

Americans harbor doubts that a financial-regulation bill about to be passed by Congress will do what President Barack Obama says it will: help avoid another crisis and make their finances safer.

Almost four out of five Americans surveyed in a Bloomberg National Poll this month say they have just a little or no confidence that the measure being championed by congressional Democrats will prevent or significantly soften a future crisis. More than three-quarters say they don’t have much or any confidence the proposal will make their savings and financial assets more secure.

A plurality -- 47 percent -- says the bill will do more to protect the financial industry than consumers; 38 percent say consumers would benefit more.

Skepticism about the financial bill, which may be approved this week, cuts across political party lines. Seven in 10 Democrats have little or no confidence the proposals will avert or significantly lessen the impact of another financial catastrophe; 68 percent doubt it will make their savings more secure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-13/wall-street-fix-from-congress-seen-ineffectual-by-four-out-of-five-in-u-s-.html

---

This bill will be heavily scrutinized when it is publicly available. You can bet that loopholes that effectively dismantle the intended effect of this new regulation will become a campaign issue.

[ozymandius]

12. Well, well... Ritholtz agrees with me.

(excerpt)

It turns out that Americans — at least 80% of them — have been paying attention:

“Americans harbor doubts that a financial-regulation bill about to be passed by Congress will do what President Barack Obama says it will: help avoid another crisis and make their finances safer.

This is politically troubling for the two dominant parties: It is bad for Democrats, who are seen as bumbling and incompetent. Despite having bigger majorities in both Houses than George W. Bush did, they were unable to pass substantial legislation without having it substantially watered down by lobbyists. But it may be worse for the GOP, who are seen as married to an intellectually bankrupt ideology, steadfast opponents of all reform, and way too cozy with Wall Street.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/four-out-of-five-see-financial-reforms-as-ineffectual/

[fasttense]

11. The rich are happy

Didn't the congress just come to an agreement on passing fiscal reform? If the rich are happy, then it means the reform is useless.

Watch out the uber wealthy are still trying to steal every last cent you have. Be very, very careful.

[ozymandius]

13. Watch the big banks' stocks.

Ineffectual legislation will have been passed if the big banks either increase their price-per-share or stay the same. Wall Street hates change just as much as uncertainty. Change and uncertainty will very much be scrutinized with this legislation.

[ozymandius]

14. Fed Minutes Preview

From Calculated Risk -

Usually the Fed minutes are pretty boring, but the minutes for the two day meeting held on June 22nd and 23rd, to be released on Wednesday, might be a little more interesting.

This release will include a revised forecast. Look for the Fed to revise down estimates for GDP and for inflation. And revise up estimates for unemployment.

Also the Fed might have discussed possible additional easing measures at the June meeting, and if so, it will be interesting to see the options discussed.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/fed-minutes-preview.html

[Ghost Dog]

60. Fed says economic outlook worse than expected

Agence France Presse WASHINGTON -- Facing a worse-than-expected outlook for U.S. growth and unemployment, the Federal Reserve has floated the idea of new measures to spur economic recovery, according to minutes published Wednesday.

Details from the Fed’s latest rate-setting meeting, held in June, showed the central bank expected U.S. growth to slow to 3.0-3.5% this year, well down from previous estimates.

Noting that the recovery continued at a “moderate pace,” members of the Federal Open Market Committee -- which sets interest rates -- said that a worsening outlook could prompt debate over further stimulus.

“The committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably,” the minutes said.

/... http://www.financialpost.com/news/says+economic+outlook+worse+than+expected/3277634/story.html

[Po_d Mainiac]

15. The wave to Demeter thread

:hi:

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. Page 3 will have to be postponed

There is a dead tractor (not mine...)that needs four hands, and God screwed up when he designed my neighbor (the owner) by only issuing 2

c u tomorrow

[DemReadingDU]

18. great toon today!

[ozymandius]

20. Thanks!

And good morning

:hi:

[ozone_man]

35. Tony Auth is one of my favorites.

and Patrick Oliphant.

[MARALE]

56. I love that toon too!

[AnneD]

19. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. Houston has a cool weird streak about it. It must be the heat. And most folks will do anything to get out of the heat. The latest case in point-the Corpse Flower. The Museum of Science has a flower from Indonesia . It has been there for about 5 years. Well all of a sudden, the pod starts shooting up like something from the Invasion of the Body Snatchers. Seems like it is getting ready to bloom. That's great you think, the air quality in Houston needs improvement. The only problem is that it gets its name from the fact that it smells like a rotting corpse. Now you would think that would keep most folks away, but not here in Houston. The Museum has had record attendance and is open 24 hours while awaiting it to bloom. It produces that aroma to attract flies, etc. to aid in pollination. So if the bee thing doesn't work out-this may be our future. I handled stink horn flowers so I have a passing acquaintance with this species, but this does produce a nice flower. The has a link to a 24 hr camera and they expect it to open any time now. So if you are daring......



www.khou.com/news/Hundreds-wait-for-corpse-flower-to-come-alive-98206374.html

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

21. They should name it for Richard Bruce Cheney.

Good morning Anne. :donut:

[AnneD]

26. I would vote.....

for Barbara in honour of the former first lady.:smoke:

[TalkingDog]

34. Charlotte's bloomed about 2 weeks ago...must be that time of year(s?)

As I recall, they raised quite a stink about it....*ba da bomp* *rimshot*

[Viva_La_Revolution]

48. Wow! that's huge!

thanks! :hi:

[AnneD]

59. I suspect.....

this was where they got the idea for the Invasion of the Body Snatcher.


Funny Side Story...When my daughter started 3rd grade, she had her first male teacher. She mentioned (casually) that I might want to drop her off. I took the hint she was nervous and went with her. On the way there, she told me how tough he was. After the brief meeting, we left the building and I took her to the sitter's. "He doesn't seem too bad I said. Well that is because you were there, the minute the parents leave, they change....just like pod people. " This child had never seen Invasion, but we have always had Sci Fi in the house-so I guess it was osmosis. She was convinced her teacher was an alien (this was before MIB). I knew the apple had not fallen to far from the tree.

[skoalyman]

23. well its another day in lala land on wall-street

to bad we can't just wall up the entrance with bricks :evilgrin:

[AnneD]

28. Yellow bricks???

just a suggestion.

[Demeter]

30. Gold Bricks

Just teasing. I am not dead, just pissed at life in general.

[hamerfan]

33. Hi, Demeter!

:hi:
Don't let it get you down!
:grouphug:

[ozymandius]

42. Hi.

Good to see you back. I have been worried.

[DemReadingDU]

49. Yeh, me too

Glad you stopped by, we miss you
:hi:

[florida08]

31. the bloodletting continues

while the lying and denying rev up. Hubby keeps saying the country will have to completely fail before it wakes up..only it will be too late then. But Ratigan gaves us some hope yesterday when he called out that lying sob gopper on his show. Oh by the way ozy I got a reply from Wachovia. The response was..nothing to see here..move along.


Thank you for contacting Wachovia. My name is Kathy B and I will be
assisting you today.

I appreciate the opportunity to address your concerns. We are aware of
the Bloomberg article that published on June 29, 2010, regarding
customer accounts held by Mexican casas de cambio (money exchange
houses) at Wachovia.

This article features a previously settled and disclosed Wachovia
regulatory matter. Wells Fargo learned about these matters before
acquiring Wachovia and established reserves in prior periods that will
fully cover the settlement amounts.

This settlement does not affect our ability to serve your financial
needs and help you succeed financially. We have made significant
enhancements in the compliance program of Wachovia that have
strengthened protections against unlawful use of our system by
wrongdoers.

Thank you for banking with Wachovia. My goal today was to provide you a
complete and helpful answer. If anyone from the Online Services Team
can help you further, please reply to this message.

Sincerely,

Kathy B
Online Services Team

[ozymandius]

44. Wow! What an answer.

Or, should I say, a non-answer. Thank you for getting under someone's skin.

[florida08]

53. just wanted them to know that I know

I like this part "This settlement does not affect our ability to serve your financial needs and help you succeed financially"

The hell it doesn't. Why would I want to invest with a bank who provides money laundering as one of their "perks"? Unless I was a Mexican drug lord anyway. I keep as little as possible in that bank because I pay my bills through their online banking. They called once when they noticed we moved our MM out to ask what could they do for us. lol I said not a thing..I had already taken care of it.

They're a hoot.

[Festivito]

38. Debt: 07/12/2010 13,194,523,014,378.23 (UP 668,133,730.21) (Mon)

(Down a little. Good day.)
Saw the end of the Republican debate last night, a few minutes. One tried to say medicaid and said: Medicare and medicare. Cox says nothings well, then fails in the finish. The sheriff says to call the sheriff like in the movies. The marine says we need a military action to clean up Lansing. The medical guy worked in a psych ward and looks like he took too many cues back. Businessman Snyder not there. Cox, blonde marine, is scary with ability to spew talking-point phrases well of course making them sound like sentences, but he could continue that fail at the end routine. Bouchard, sheriff, looks calm and is a big guy. It was fun for an investment of ten minutes including walking to site time.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,639,110,153,263.24 + 4,555,412,861,114.99
DOWN 143,600,537.54 + UP 811,734,267.75

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,229.35 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,659,808 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,609.74.
A family of three owes $127,829.21. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 7,300,690,175.29.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,110,483,122.70.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,945,628,828.42.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 194 reports in 285 days of FY2010 averaging 6.62B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 923 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/12/2010 13,194,523,014,378.23 BHO (UP 2,567,645,965,465.15 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,284,694,010,866.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,645,309,873,565.87 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/21/2010 -000,091,646,713.41 ---- Mon
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue
07/07/2010 +000,013,416,608.65 ------------*******
07/08/2010 +011,830,915,605.93 ------------**********
07/09/2010 -000,134,583,926.15 ---
07/12/2010 -000,143,600,537.54 --- Mon

79,883,309,929.38 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4462721&mesg_id=4462881

[Festivito]

64. Debt: 07/13/2010 13,199,290,856,204.31 (UP 4,767,841,826.08) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,639,463,545,519.75 + 4,559,827,310,684.56
UP 353,392,256.51 + UP 4,414,449,569.57

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,229.28 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,666,454 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,624.22.
A family of three owes $127,872.66. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,185,560,704.87.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,269,411,183.57.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,940,072,984.60.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 195 reports in 286 days of FY2010 averaging 6.61B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 922 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/13/2010 13,199,290,856,204.31 BHO (UP 2,572,413,807,291.23 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,289,461,852,692.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,645,641,874,939.86 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue
07/07/2010 +000,013,416,608.65 ------------*******
07/08/2010 +011,830,915,605.93 ------------**********
07/09/2010 -000,134,583,926.15 ---
07/12/2010 -000,143,600,537.54 --- Mon
07/13/2010 +000,353,392,256.51 ------------********

80,328,348,899.30 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4464145&mesg_id=4464399

[TalkingDog]

39. Bloomberg offers "unexpected" study

to show that even if you look for "unexpected" events, you still might miss them. Sounds like a pre-trial defense in the making......

http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/healthday/640994.html


"The main finding is that knowing that unexpected events might occur doesn't prevent you from missing unexpected events," researcher Daniel Simons, a psychology professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, said in a university news release.

[joebaur42]

40. The Stock Market

I still think the stock market is glorified gambling.

[Juneboarder]

41. Welcome to DU Joe!

And yes, it's quite the gamble in my opinion as well :)

[ozymandius]

45. So true.

And welcome to this little corner of the world. :hi:

[DemReadingDU]

50. and the casino is rigged too

Welcome!
:hi:

[Robbien]

43. BP Ends Control of Cushing Tanks

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-14/bp-ends-control-of-cushing-tanks-with-magellan-sale.html

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc is moving away from storage ownership at a key U.S. oil delivery point as it cedes control of its tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, as part of a $289 million sale of assets to Magellan Midstream Partners LP.

BP will sell 7.8 million barrels of storage at Cushing, where benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude is delivered. BP’s oil-trading business, which now has the advantage of physical oil storage, will rely on contracts with Magellan and others after the sale.

-------


This sale is confusing. Control of Cushing storage is how BP and Goldman are able to manipulate the price of oil. Then there was that report last week of BP's entire oil trading team in China quitting leaving the entire dept empty.

Wonder if these actions are all about BP covering their dirty footprints in case the feds ever come after their market manipulation.

[ozymandius]

46. Covering tracks and raising capital

I say its both. But BP really does need capital right now.

[Demeter]

47. Nobody Expects the Spanish Inquisition!

[florida08]

55. Hi Demeter

I feel like that picture looks lately

[Tansy_Gold]

57. WELCOME BACK!!!

You, Demeter, not the Spanish Inquisition!

:rofl:



TG, NTY

[Ghost Dog]

51. European Shares Run Out of Steam

European stocks ended narrowly mixed as market participants awaited economic data and corporate earnings, most notably from J.P. Morgan Chase's on Thursday.

The pause, which snapped a six-session winning streak for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, came as auto and mining stocks dropped. Technology shares rose, buoyed by strong earnings on both sides of the Atlantic.

Sentiment also was hit by the second successive monthly fall in U.S. retail sales. Sales in June fell by 0.5%, a worse result than analysts had expected.

Overall, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed fractionally lower at 255.92. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index rose 0.3% to 5253.52, and France's CAC-40 index eased 0.1% to 3632.98, also ending six-session runs. But Germany's DAX added 0.3% to 6209.76, extending its streak to seven.

/... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703792704575366293814028322.html?ru=yahoo#mod=yahoo_hs


... "extended streaking", then, going on. Does this have something to do with the emperor having no clothes?

[Ghost Dog]

54. Firm eurozone industrial output a good signal: EU

14 July 2010 - 17H02 AFP - Eurozone industrial production grew for the third month in a row with a 0.9-percent rise in May from the April level, the EU said on Wednesday, and a 9.4-percent leap on a 12-month comparison.

The monthly growth was lower than the 1.3 percent rise forecast by economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires, but analysts said industrial production remained the most dynamic sector of the eurozone economy.

The rise in industrial output "bodes well" for second-quarter growth domestic product in the 16 nations that share the euro, said an analysis by Italian bank UniCredit.

The 0.9-percent increase in May confirms that industry "remains the area's main growth engine," it said.

/... http://www.france24.com/en/20100714-firm-eurozone-industrial-output-good-signal-eu

[Demeter]

63. Today's Marching Order for the PPT: Hold That Line!

Can you see them: Geithner, Bernanke, Blankfein, Summers, et al., with their red, white and blue pom-poms and short pleated skirts?