STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday July 7

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday July 7, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 6, 2010

Dow... 9,743.62 +57.14 (+0.59%)
Nasdaq... 2,093.88 UNCH (UNCH)
S&P 500... 1,028.06 +5.48 (+0.53%)
Gold future... 1,187 -7.70 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.92 -0.02 (-0.55%)
30-Year Bond 3.88 -0.01 (-0.26%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
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Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. no goobermental reports today n/t

[Roland99]

7. No news is good news?

[ozymandius]

9. Some news will be offered as API issues its report today.

Oddly - the Energy Department report is considered more reliable.

[Ghost Dog]

72. Retailers' Sales Rise Most in 4 Years, Overcoming Job Concerns

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retailers’ sales are growing at the fastest pace in four years, a sign consumers may be overcoming concern about unemployment and depressed home values.

Sales probably expanded at an average monthly rate of 4 percent in the first five months of the retail fiscal year that began Jan. 31, the biggest gain since 2006, the International Council of Shopping Centers trade group said in advance of its June report tomorrow. Nordstrom Inc. and Kohl’s Corp. are among chains that will report June sales increases at stores open at least a year, according to analysts’ estimates.

Retailers may have bucked last month’s drop in consumer confidence that threatens to temper the rebound. The year-to- date growth in sales shows that spending, a key driver of the U.S. economy, is faring better than many investors are betting, said Michael Niemira, the New York-based ICSC’s chief economist.

...

In the current fiscal year, the ICSC’s monthly number swung as high as 9 percent in March, then receded to a 0.8 percent gain in April, partly because of an earlier Easter. June sales probably came in at the high end of a projected 3 percent to 4 percent range, the ICSC said today.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-07/u-s-retailers-sales-increase-most-in-four-years-overcoming-job-concerns.html

[Roland99]

74. An awful lot of "probably" in that.

[Ghost Dog]

83. Too right. n/t

[Demeter]

79. One Data Point Doesn't Constitute a Trend, Either

[BootinUp]

88. More like one measure

mulitple data points contained within it.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers below $72 ahead of US crude supply data

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered below $72 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as traders look to weekly crude supply data for signs of recovering U.S. demand.

Oil investors will be mulling crude inventory levels announced by the American Petroleum Institute later Wednesday and the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration on Thursday.

Analysts expect crude supplies to fall 3.5 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos, while inventories of gasoline and distillates will likely rise.

In other Nymex trading in August contracts, heating oil was steady at $1.9162 a gallon, gasoline fell 0.42 cent to $1.9671 a gallon and natural gas rose 2.2 cents to $4.704 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Asian markets cautious after negative US data

HONG KONG (AFP) – Asian stock markets were generally down on Wednesday with investors taking a cautious view of the global economic outlook after negative figures from the United States.

Japan's Nikkei headline index closed down 0.63 percent, or 58.39 points, at 9,279.65 after data from the Institute for Supply Management suggested the US service sector had suffered a sharper-than-expected slowdown in June.

The Topix index of all first-section shares sank 0.68 percent.

The benchmark Hang Seng index was down 227.05 points at 19,857.07, with losses for mainland blue chips such as conglomerate Citic Pacific (down 2.81 percent), energy giant CNOOC (2.76 percent) and electronics maker Foxconn (2.16 percent).

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100707/bs_afp/asiafinancestocksforex

[ozymandius]

6. World stock markets fall despite Wall Street gains

BANGKOK – World markets retreated Wednesday, with investors losing their appetite for stocks after a disappointing U.S. services report pointed to an anemic recovery in the world's largest economy.

Oil prices hovered below $72 a barrel as traders prepared to assess weekly crude supply data for signs of recovering U.S. demand. The dollar weakened against the yen and the euro fell.

Major indexes in Europe opened lower. Britain's FTSE of leading shares was down 1 percent to 4,913.55. Germany's DAX opened 0.6 percent lower to 5,906.47 and France's CAC-40 was off 1.1 percent to 3,384.65. U.S. futures augured a lower open. Dow futures were down 24 points, or 0.3 percent, to 9,658 while the Standard and Poor's 500 futures lost 5.1, or 0.5 percent, to 1,019.10.

Markets reversed course following bargain-hunting Tuesday that led to slight rallies on Wall Street and elsewhere. Traders remained unable to shake deepening unease about the global economy and scampered to the sidelines, taking profits with them, according to Francis Lun, general manager of Fulbright Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100707/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

10. Stock futures signal dip along with world stocks

(Reuters) – Stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street on Wednesday after the previous session's tepid gains, with futures for the S&P 500 down 0.2 percent, Dow Jones futures down 0.3 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.4 percent at 4 a.m. EDT.

Asian stocks slid on Wednesday as investors worried global growth was faltering, with Japan's Nikkei average down 0.6 percent. European stocks were down 1 percent in morning trade, resuming an almost uninterrupted two-week retreat as Tuesday's short-covering rally dwindled.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Tuesday he was confident the U.S. economy would continue to grow as it repairs damage from the financial crisis, but added that recoveries were "never even, never steady."

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday after a five-session losing streak, but strong buying interest evaporated in the afternoon as bearish sentiment reasserted itself and investors used the morning's gains as an opportunity to sell rather than establish new long positions.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100707/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks

[Po_d Mainiac]

18. Sorry world

The US shopping spree is on hold for the foreseeable future.
:donut: Morning all

[ozymandius]

22. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I see permanent consumer realignment in the near future. People are scared.

[Tansy_Gold]

31. People are also broke. n/t

[Warpy]

50. I can report the mall is empty again

That's where I get my hair cut and yesterday afternoon I was shorn. The mall was empty of anyone actually shopping, just some exercisers and the usual hanging around teenagers.

Tuesday is the deadest day of the week, but things should still pick up in the afternoon. They didn't yesterday.

It's not looking good.

[Demeter]

78. The Younger Kid's Retail Mall Job Is Shrinking

There are no hours scheduled for anyone except the managers. All the college kids are gone for the summer--no customers.

So she got another job, as desk clerk in a hotel. At least she's got 40 hours, and she can sit down. Evidently their computer system is wide open, so she can get around the blocks they put in and surf...a little learning is a dangerous thing. Computers in the blood...

[ozymandius]

4. China won't dump U.S. Treasuries or pile into gold

BEIJING (Reuters) – China on Wednesday ruled out the "nuclear" option of dumping its vast holdings of U.S. Treasury securities but called on Washington to be a responsible guardian of the dollar.

In the third in a series of statements explaining its work to the Chinese public, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange sought to allay concerns in the outside world that arise whenever Beijing shifts its holdings of U.S. government debt.

It said it constantly adjusts its portfolio to maximimize returns, and any changes to its U.S. Treasury portfolio should be seen in that light and not interpreted politically.

China held $900.2 billion in U.S. Treasuries at the end of April, according to U.S. Treasury data released on June 15.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100707/bs_nm/us_china_economy_reserves

[Demeter]

8. A Threat by Any Other Name

the Chinese, like cats, like to toy with their prey.

although, one could make the case that we are all dancing on the edge of a cliff.

[ozymandius]

5. Service sector grows more slowly, employment weak

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. service sector expanded in June for a sixth straight month but growth was at the slowest pace since February, the latest evidence that the economic recovery is cooling.

Analysts said the data released on Tuesday by the Institute for Supply Management, an industry group, did not signal that the United States is slipping back into recession -- something which has been a persistent fear in the wake of a raft of disappointing data.

The Institute for Supply Management said its service sector index fell to 53.8 from 55.4 in May. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The median forecast was for a reading of 55, according to a survey of 72 economists polled by Reuters.

The ISM report's data on employment gave a more pessimistic picture of the economy. The employment component declined to a reading of 49.7 from 50.4, contracting once again after having turned positive last month and confirming weak reports on the labor market.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100706/bs_nm/us_usa_economy

[Demeter]

11. 12 deadly signs Wall Street's 'Conspiracy of Weasels' killed Obama's reforms

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=A3604D3F-AF24-43A5-A355-E8CFEC4DCACB

ACTUAL TITLE WAS NOT USED TO AVOID AFFLICTING THE OVERLY SENSITIVE CHEERLEADERS WITH THE URGE TO DO SOMETHING STUPIDLY RASH

Financial reform is D.O.A. Window dressing. What's next? An implosion? Yes, a depression. Dead ahead...

When Obama signs the so-called reform bill, blow a goodbye kiss to our last great hope for true reform: Obama failed. True reform will never happen. Wall Street gains more power fighting every new reform bill, making massive investments in lobbyists. Witness their rapid return to power since near-bankruptcy in 2008.

No, the Weasel Conspiracy members didn't drown, they rule America. They killed democracy, destroyed capitalism and are consolidating vast new wealth and power in the hands of this conspiracy of Wall Street, Corporate CEOs, the Forbes 400 and Washington's pay-to-play power-players. Result: Less than one million co-conspirators control a nation of 310 million citizens.

Here are 12 more warnings exposing the Weasel Conspiracy's phony financial reforms:

LIST OF THE LATEST CRITIQUES OF THE OBAMA ECONOMIC POLICIES FOLLOWS SEE LINK

[florida08]

28. Dear God demeter

Just makes me cry. Every time I think the skunks might be better than the badgers I'm proven wrong. The chicken's only rescue is the farmer with the gun. But the farmer has been derelict in his responsiblity to the henhouse. Fried chicken is on the menu.

[Roland99]

75. Used to think The Carlyle Group was the essence of all evil.

They don't hold a candle to them doing "God's work" at GS

[Juneboarder]

77. What an article...

I had to send that to my cousin just now. We got into it this morning over how he feels it is right to buy a 3rd home right now and move his family to Denver, because things are better there and the best thing to do is keep buying.

For real!?!? :eyes:

Thank you for sharing this...

[ozymandius]

12. Krugman Says U.S. Economy Is Facing a ‘Long Siege’ (Update1)

July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the U.S. should have a “kitchen-sink strategy” that uses all fiscal and monetary policies possible to prevent the economy from sliding back into a recession.

“We are looking at what could be a very long siege here,” Krugman said in an interview today in Princeton, New Jersey, with Carol Massar of Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” “We really are at a stage where we should have a kitchen-sink strategy. We should be throwing everything we can get at this.”

He said too many policy makers and commentators are overly concerned that the ballooning U.S. deficit would set off a crisis of confidence similar to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. Krugman said he’s concerned U.S. policy makers would be unable to agree to short-term stimulus for the economy along with long- term measures to curtail the deficit.

The lack of jobs will curtail consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the world’s largest economy, and restrain sales at retailers including Barnes & Noble Inc. The rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s faces risks from the European debt crisis and slower growth in China at the same time that fiscal stimulus measures fade.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=ajsHBWT_hxvk

[Demeter]

15. What Was This LONG DEPRESSION to which Krugman Alludes?

25-30 years of unmitigated pain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Depression

The Long Depression was a worldwide economic crisis experienced in the latter half of the Victorian era. The Long Depression was felt most heavily in Europe and the United States, which had been experiencing strong economic growth fueled by the Second Industrial Revolution and the conclusion of the American Civil War. At the time, the episode was labeled the Great Depression, and held that title until the Great Depression of the 1930s. Though a period of general deflation and low growth began in 1873, it did not have the severe "economic retrogression spectacular breakdown" of the latter Great Depression.<1>

It was most notable in Western Europe and North America, at least in part because reliable data from the period is most readily available in those parts of the world. The United Kingdom is often considered to have been the hardest hit; during this period it lost some of its large industrial lead over the economies of Continental Europe.<2> While it was occurring, the view was prominent that the economy of the United Kingdom had been in continuous depression from 1873 to as late as 1896 and some texts refer to the period as the Great Depression of 1873–96.<3>

In the United States, economists typically refer to the Long Depression as the Depression of 1873–79, which followed the Panic of 1873. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the contraction following the panic as lasting from October 1873 to March 1879. At 65 months, it is the longest-lasting contraction identified by the NBER, eclipsing the Great Depression's 43 months of contraction.<4> <5> Following the end of the episode in 1879, the U.S. economy would remain unstable, experiencing recessions for 114 of the 253 months until January 1901.<4>

-----------------------------

The Panic of 1873 has been described as "the first truly international crisis."<6> The optimism that had been driving booming stock prices in central Europe had reached a fever pitch, and fears of a bubble culminated in a panic in Vienna beginning in April 1873. The collapse of the Vienna Stock Exchange began on May 8, 1873 and continued until May 10, when the exchange was closed; when it was reopened three days later, the panic seemed to have faded, and appeared confined to Austria-Hungary.<6> Financial panic arrived in America only months later on Black Thursday, September 18, 1873 after the failure of the banking house of Jay Cooke and Company over the Northern Pacific Railway.<7> The Northern Pacific railway had been given 40 million acres of public land in the West and Jay Cooke sought $100,000,000 in capital for the company; the bank failed when the bond issue proved unsalable, and was shortly followed by several other major banks. The New York Stock Exchange closed for ten days on September 20.<6>

The financial contagion then returned to Europe, provoking a second panic in Vienna and further failures in continental Europe before receding. France, which had been experiencing deflation in the years preceding the crash, was spared financial calamity for the moment, as was Britain.<6>

Others have argued the depression was rooted in the 1870 Franco-Prussian War that hurt the French economy and, under the Treaty of Frankfurt (1871), forced that country to make large war reparations payments to Germany. The primary cause of the price depression in the United States was the tight monetary policy that the U.S. followed to get back to the gold standard after the Civil War. The U.S. was taking money out of circulation to achieve this goal, therefore, there was less available money to facilitate trade. Because of the monetary policy described above the price of silver started to fall causing considerable losses of asset values, however, by most accounts, after 1879 production was growing, thus further putting downward pressure on prices due to increased industrial productivity, trade and competition.

In America the speculative nature of financing due to both the greenback which was specie issued to pay for the US Civil War and rampant fraud in the building of the Union Pacific Railway up to 1869 culminated in the Credit Mobilier panic. Railway overbuilding and weak markets collapsed the bubble in 1873. Both the Union Pacific and the Northern Pacific lines were center in the collapse; another railway bubble was the UK railway mania.

Because of the Panic of 1873, governments depegged their currencies, to save money. The demonetization of silver by European and North American governments in the early 1870s was certainly a contributing factor. The Coinage Act of 1873 in America was met with great opposition by farmers and miners, as silver was seen as more of a monetary benefit to rural areas than to banks in big cities. In addition, there were Americans who advocated the continuance of government-issued fiat money (United States Notes) to avoid deflation and promote exports. The western US states were outraged--Nevada, Colorado, and Idaho where huge silver producers with productive mines, and for a few years mining abated. The resumption of the US government buying silver was enacted in 1890 with the Sherman Silver Purchase Act.

Monetarists believe that the 1873 depression was caused by shortages of gold that undermined the gold standard, and that the 1848 California Gold Rush, 1886 Witwatersrand Gold Rush in South Africa and the 1898-99 Klondike Gold Rush helped alleviate such crises. Other analyses have pointed to developmental surges (see Kondratiev wave), theorizing that the Second Industrial Revolution was causing large shifts in the economies of many states, imposing transition costs, which may also have played a role in causing the depression.

[ozymandius]

17. And we emerged on the other side of the Long Depression

with the Gilded Age.

This is why I am not so enthused about entering another era during which a generation of people will grow up poor and desperate. Populations can be leveraged when they are in dire straits.

[Demeter]

13. Third World Entrepreneurs Thrive With Dreams, Focus And Hard Work

http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/06/micro-finance-loans-nonprofits-startups-eradicating-poverty-forbes-woman-entrepreneurs-small-business-funding.html?partner=yahoofpapp

EVERYBODY TAKE NOTES!

http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/06/micro-finance-loans-nonprofits-startups-eradicating-poverty-forbes-woman-entrepreneurs-small-business-funding.html?partner=yahoofpapp

For women living in the depths of poverty, nonprofit BeadforLife is just the stepping stone they need to help them achieve economic and entrepreneurial success...

Mary Ogwang used to live in a one-room house made of metal in Kampala, Uganda, with her 11 children and husband, a police officer who earns about $2 a day. Then she learned about BeadforLife, a nonprofit that trains women in Kampala to make beads from recycled paper. The beads are strung into necklaces, bracelets and other jewelry and sold on the Internet and at parties in the U.S. and Europe.

With the money she earned making beads, Ogwang saved enough to buy a sewing machine and started making children's sweaters. Soon Ogwang had enough money to build a new brick house for her family, with a separate bedroom for her and her husband and a television. She has since started a second business, powering mobile phones on a solar panel she was able to purchase with her increased income...

ONE WANTS TO PUKE AT THE PATRONIZING TONE...

[OnlinePoker]

69. I loan through Kiva

Kiva is an organization where we backfill microloans made by partner micro-loan organizations around the world. We can choose the individuals or groups we want to support. No interest comes back to us, only the principal (over 98% repayment rate to date) which can be withdrawn or reloaned. Interest is paid on the loans to the local micro-loan banks. Worthwhile if you've never heard of it.

http://www.kiva.org/

[Hawkowl]

102. Cool program...nt

[Demeter]

14. Overtaxing the rich isn't the answer

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/06/AR2010070603210.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns

NOT FOR THE RICH, CERTAINLY. IT DOES HAVE THE VIRTUE OF NEVER HAVING BEEN TRIED, THOUGH.

Rich Trumka -- the AFL-CIO president intercepts any attempted honorific with an easy, "Call me Rich" -- comes armed with charts. His first one is, literally, in shades of gray. Its message is anything but.

Once, its bar graphs report, the middle class and the wealthy prospered in tandem. Between 1947 and 1973, the rich got richer, but the not-so-rich actually prospered more. The household income of the middle 20 percent of Americans nearly doubled, while the income of the top 20 percent of Americans rose the least of any group, 85 percent.

After 1973, the story changes dramatically. Income for the middle group inched up, rising 24 percent through 2006. But the top 20 percent grew at nearly three times that rate.

This graphic depiction of income inequality is, understandably enough, at the center of Trumka's worldview, a perspective that became clear when he came to lunch last week at The Post. Growing income inequality is troubling. It would be troubling in the absence of a budget crisis. But that does not mean, as Trumka would have it, that the solution to the nation's fiscal woes is always, or only, reducing income inequality.

In short, soaking the rich gets you only so far.

Take, for example, what Trumka calls "the current deficit hysteria" and its cousin, entitlement spending. "We don't have an entitlement problem," Trumka says. "We have a revenue problem." In the world according to Trumka, no benefits need be cut, no retirement ages adjusted. Simply requiring the rich to pay a fairer share would bridge the gap.

I'm all for a more progressive tax code. But consider: The Tax Policy Center examined what it would take to avoid raising taxes on families earning less than $250,000 a year while reducing the deficit to 3 percent of the economy by decade's end. The top two rates would have to rise to 72.4 and 76.8 percent, more than double the current level. You don't have to be anti-tax zealot Grover Norquist to think this would be insane.

Or ask Trumka about whether the eligibility age for Social Security, now 62 for partial benefits, should be raised. This former coal miner -- and son and grandson of coal miners -- erupts. His father worked 44 years in the mines, suffering from black lung, "and if you had said to my dad, 'You have to work until you're 63,' that would have been a death sentence." Fair enough. Some people may need special protection.

But, an editor asks, gesturing around the gleaming conference table at the middle-aged assembly, what about those who do not work in such punishing occupations and for whom the current system would provide two, maybe three, decades of benefits? "What's wrong with that?" Trumka asks indignantly. "The rest of the world does that!" Yes, and how are things going in Greece?

Fresh from The Post, Trumka told the new fiscal responsibility commission that the best way to fix Social Security would be to raise or eliminate the cap on earnings subject to the Social Security tax.

Again, sounds simple, and raising the cap makes sense -- in isolation. But combined with other taxes on the wealthiest? The Congressional Budget Office estimated that raising the cap to cover 90 percent of earnings would raise taxes on the highest earners by 6 percent for those born in the 1960s and by 15 percent for those born in the 2000s. Add that to higher income tax rates and you're talking real money, although that change would fill only about one-third of the shortfall.

Finally, ask Trumka about whether generous pensions and health benefits promised to public employees remain affordable -- were they ever? -- in light of strapped state budgets. Should public employees be called on to sacrifice? Trumka fairly bursts with outrage: "Were they the ones that caused this crisis? Were they the ones that lost 20 percent of the wealth in this country?"

No, but isn't it hard to defend outsize benefits to public-sector employees when wages elsewhere are stagnant and the unemployment rate is so high? Not to Trumka. "Why is that hard to defend when a guy in a hedge fund made $4.4 billion last year?"

Guys in hedge funds make outrageous sums. Union members -- even public-sector union members -- don't. Trumka's frustration is reasonable. His one-sided, tax-the-rich reflex is not. It is the shortsighted bookend to the no-new-taxes mantra of the ideologues on the other side of this stale, and seemingly stalemated, debate.

OH, THE HUMANITY!

[rfranklin]

16. Shovels loads of B.S.

Look at the fact that the uber wealthy have doubled and tripled their wealth while the average salary has stayed unchanged for 30 years while the vaunted trickle down effect has created no net gain in jobs for the past ten years shows that taxes must be raised on them. They promised us prosperity and jobs and they could not deliver.

Also, social security has been paid forward to at least 2049. Regan's administration explained that to us when they doubled our social security taxes. The fact is that the Pentagon has borrowed all those funds from the American people to run wars and waste money on useless weapons. Now they can start paying us back by reducing their budget to austerity levels.

[Tansy_Gold]

25. They all need to watch "Dave"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jt7TN_CKp9U&feature=related

Complete with Alan Simpson, Christopher Dodd, and assorted other "Villagers."



Tansy Gold, NTY

[ozymandius]

20. After long deliberation, with knowledge and behavioral insight as my guide,

I say this is utter fetid drivel! What bullshit.

The historical record of economic performance and taxation being weighted toward the higher income brackets reveals that the economic engine is much healthier when the lower and middle incomes are taxed less and the higher income brackets are taxed more. Corporate taxes should be much, much higher. Personal income taxes should be much higher, too, up to 55% for those making over $1 million (some will argue with me that this income figure should be lower) as it was sixty years ago.

Finally, using Trumka as the focal point is a wedge issue. The president of the AFL-CIO, by mere association with organized labor, is a polarizing figure. That is not the best way to provide a balanced analysis of progressive tax codes.

[mbperrin]

34. Yes, much higher marginal rates and a rewrite of allowable deductions

would result in investment in actual businesses, rather than making it okay to park trillions in trumped up derivatives and all their cousins.

Invest it in something real or lose it is a great way to encourage real investment. Certainly worked post WWII, where the top rate was 91% on income over $400,000.

I teach a 3 week unit each semester for my high school seniors on Smith's Wealth of Nations, wherein we find that the reason countries are wealthy is because production of goods is maximized in those countries, no matter their own natural resources. Not PROFITS maximized, PRODUCTION. Somewhere just about the time I was finishing college the first time in the mid-70s, profit became the signal of a strong economy. It's led us to the mess we're in now.

Burn down the paper crap and build a real economy. I'm thinking outlaw any sort of derivative or hedge where there is no direct insurable interest on the part of the buyer, same as the laws on life insurance. You and I cannot buy a life insurance policy on the President. We have no insurable interest. We may buy one to cover our spouse, but only with their written consent. We have an insurable interest, but only with permission may we exercise it, even though we plan to make all the premiums ourselves, will cost the insured nothing.

[ozymandius]

35. That unit must be a whole lotta fun to teach.

I am curious if your students exhibit an understanding of the differences you mention between production and profitability. You and I are in total agreement about the derivatives and hedge factors associated with investment insurance. Las Vegas expects collateral if a gambler wishes to hedge a bet. Odd, I think, that Vegas has stricter collateral rules than Wall Street.

[mbperrin]

43. One of the ways we show the difference is to have them show up with

$2 each for those who wish to play, and we play a variation of whist called pitch, that my grandfather favored. We count all the money and products we started with ($2 per person and no products) and then, when I'v won all their money, we count all the money and products we end with (Same total money, still no products). This is gambling, not productive. (I then spend the money on pizza for class - local Pizza Hut gives me medium one toppings for $5 each, delivered. Manager is former student.)

They also get three weeks to design a micro business using only assets they currently own and a maximum of $20 cash in addition. Goal: earn $400-$500 in two weeks. Implementing the business and reporting on it gains extra credit. One of the more ingenious businesses required:

weedeater (in the garage)
cell phone (welded to teen - check)
rake (in the garage)
gas can (in the garage)
Week's ad in local paper: $18.70 (allowable cash expense)

Background of business: our city requires property owners to maintain the city owned alley behind their property at their expense. Nothing may grow or stick up more than 2". Fine: $300, added to property taxes if not paid.

Ad content:
Avoid city fines! Let me clean your alley, very reasonable. Call xxx-xxxx.

Elderly and the busy call. He goes, looks, (minimum charge is $50 for typical 54' x 4' strip needing cleaned. Mows down to dirt with weedeater, rakes up, throws in dumpster, 20 minutes, $50. Typical customer load: 4 or 5 each on Saturday and Sunday, 1 or 2 weekdays after school. After two weeks, reported gross earnings of $1250, net after ads and gas, $1190.

Now look at what you started with. Products? Clean alleys, customers happy to avoid city fines. Money free to spend? Multiples of the $20 seed. Production.

It IS fun, and it also fiendishly gives them the notion that there may be other ways to make money than working the counter at Mickey D's, that the demand for products and services creates jobs, not businesses.

[ozymandius]

48. What a fabulous idea!

I'd like to use that. I will also suggest this to my colleagues. Thank you!

That really shows how a dollar spent circulates through the community and can actually boost the circulation of money. It's so simple, it's brilliant.

[mbperrin]

59. I do think you'll find it fun, and so will the kids.

I forgot the only other caveat: LEGAL enterprises!

Easy for me to forget; two of my instructors at A&M were Phil and Wendy Gramm! :)

[ozymandius]

63. Egads! Phil and Wendy Gramm?

Did you get anything useful out of that class?

Had they been my instructors - I might have intentionally flunked just on principle.

[mbperrin]

67. Actually, she taught a very straight micro class, and got me to change

my major from mechanical engineering to economics.

I had an independent studies course with Phil, and my project was to compile a complete list of every radio station, TV station, and newspaper in all 254 counties of Texas. This was in 1975, long before a lot of cable or any Internet, so it was a lot of telephone books, phone calls, and about a week of driving.

Strangely, this was shortly before he ran for Congress. Hmm, why would a candidate for Congress need a complete media call and mail list? Help! I'm 22, need a grade, am a really naive kid, and worked my butt off on it!

Luckily, Robert Ekelund was also there at the time, as well as Ray Battalio, Nicholas Sanchez, Robert Tollison, and more. Now this was way more info than you needed! Sorry.

[Demeter]

80. God, I Need Your Class Like 30 Years Ago

Remedial...

[DemReadingDU]

105. I bet your students learn a lot of valuableknowledge

all of which can help them when they are on their own.

Thank you for teaching our students!

[mbperrin]

106. Thanks for all the work you do here, demreadingdu!

One of the main things we work on is to quit thinking of ourselves as consumers and our stuff as just stuff. We're trying to see that nearly anything we own is an asset that could provide a return if we use it in productive ways.

Also, avoid debt whenever possible, how to negotiate a contract for a car, a home, and a job.

Mostly, I just work on the horrible mistakes I made when young.

[BootinUp]

41. agree 100%. nt

[Tansy_Gold]

42. Another in agreement

Can i take your class?



TG, NTY

[mbperrin]

44. Love to have you, but the truth is, I read YOU to learn.

Thanks for the great compliment.

[Tansy_Gold]

60. No, thank YOU

Good thing I just got outta the shower and don't have my make-up on yet or it'd be runnin' down my face. To receive that kind of compliment from a TEACHER is the greatest honor I can imagine.

:blush:

Tansy Gold, who cries very easily

[Festivito]

19. Debt: 07/02/2010 13,175,330,731,664.70 (DOWN 2,986,624,551.03) (Fri)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Another A-squared day.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,627,468,791,521.91 + 4,547,861,940,142.79
UP 460,030,174.48 + DOWN 3,446,654,725.51

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,230.04 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,593,347 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,556.89.
A family of three owes $127,670.68. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,088,733,934.49.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,901,362,683.11.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 189 reports in 275 days of FY2010 averaging 6.70B$ per report, 4.60B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 933 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/02/2010 13,175,330,731,664.70 BHO (UP 2,548,453,682,751.62 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,265,501,728,153.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,679,665,930,093.98 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/14/2010 +000,237,116,126.71 ------------******** Mon
06/15/2010 +026,653,914,221.49 ------------**********
06/16/2010 +000,179,185,558.18 ------------********
06/17/2010 -040,132,025,764.65 -
06/18/2010 +000,218,467,463.90 ------------********
06/21/2010 -000,091,646,713.41 ---- Mon
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********

55,398,605,793.68 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4454812&mesg_id=4454837

[Festivito]

107. Debt: 07/06/2010 13,177,644,774,581.63 (UP 2,314,042,916.93) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Ahh, no silly jobs at the moment.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,627,544,005,512.35 + 4,550,100,769,069.28
UP 75,213,990.44 + UP 2,238,828,926.49

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,229.77 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,619,931 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,560.71.
A family of three owes $127,682.14. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,775,307,496.77.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,235,225,497.63.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,970,523,904.03.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 190 reports in 279 days of FY2010 averaging 6.67B$ per report, 4.54B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 929 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/06/2010 13,177,644,774,581.63 BHO (UP 2,550,767,725,668.55 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,267,815,771,069.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,658,612,030,252.74 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/15/2010 +026,653,914,221.49 ------------**********
06/16/2010 +000,179,185,558.18 ------------********
06/17/2010 -040,132,025,764.65 -
06/18/2010 +000,218,467,463.90 ------------********
06/21/2010 -000,091,646,713.41 ---- Mon
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --
06/25/2010 +000,258,141,060.04 ------------********
06/28/2010 -000,856,644,286.03 --- Mon
06/29/2010 +000,753,506,197.45 ------------********
06/30/2010 +077,231,903,487.92 ------------**********
07/01/2010 -006,671,631,742.50 --
07/02/2010 +000,460,030,174.48 ------------********
07/06/2010 +000,075,213,990.44 ------------******* Tue

55,236,703,657.41 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4455851&mesg_id=4455893

[DemReadingDU]

21. Chris Whalen: Fixing the Financial System

7/6/10
CNBC video discussion with Chris Whalen, Institutional Risk Analytics; Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group and Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics and NYU Stern School of Business.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1538236253&play=1

[DemReadingDU]

23. Niall Ferguson Discusses U.S. Debt, `Bond Vigilantes'

7/6/10 Niall Ferguson, a professor at Harvard University, talks about so-called bond vigilantes and the U.S.'s debt position and fiscal policy. Ferguson talks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwDLTVvkySk

[DemReadingDU]

24. Niall Ferguson: If Obama Administration Listens To Krugman It Would Lead To Imminent Debt Crisis

From ZeroHedge, includes same video, but here is some text to read

7/6/10 Niall Ferguson: If The Obama Administration Listens To Paul Krugman It Would Lead To An Imminent Debt Crisis

In an interview with Bloomberg TV's Erik Shatzker, Niall Ferguson picks up where Reinhart and Rogoff leave off. The historian discusses the bond vigilantes, "Bond vigilantes are a bit like the people short selling investment banks a couple of years ago.

You start with Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, you don't get to Goldman Sachs until quite late in the game. In a way the sovereign debtors of the western world are pretty much in that position today. And we are working down the list, starting with Greece, moving on to Spain and Portugal, the UK dodged the bullet by implementing some preemptive measures. Sooner or later the bond vigilantes will get to the US, I don't think it will be this year, but in the absence of any political will to address this problem, this is simply an inevitability."

As to why it is inevitable, Ferguson observes the case of the UK which was the only one to manage to grow its way out of massive debt load: "Britain after 1815 had two big advantages, it had the only the industrial revolution at that point that was going on in the word and had the world's biggest empire. I don't see anyone in that happy position today." The outlook: "Is it going to be inflation or is it going to be default. Right now there is no sign of inflation. We have monetary contraction at an alarming rate, and zero inflation in terms of core CPI, so the option of inflating this debt away doesn't seem to be there right now.

What you are left with is therefore default. And I think it is a fair bet that US will default at least on the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare at some point in the foreseeable future. What the Greeks discovered you are fine until you are not fine with the bond market and if you have a non-credible fiscal strategy of borrowing a $1 tillion a year for the rest of time, never ever again running a balanced budget, at some point the markets are going to get spooked, and I think that point is nearer than Paul Krugman believes.

Nothing would spook the markets more than for Paul Krugman's advice to be accepted by the Obama administration. That might well be the trigger."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/niall-ferguson-if-obama-administration-listens-paul-krugman-it-would-lead-imminent-debt-cris

[BootinUp]

26. Ferguson believes we need Reaganomics II.

Best to ignore him unless you believe trickle down works.

[Dr.Phool]

27. Ferggie lost all credibility with me.

When he did the recent PBS series, I believe it was "The History Of Money". He was going along just fine until the last part when he talked about what a smashing success Friedmanomics was for South America.

[ozymandius]

32. Did he tiptoe around Argentina?

Friedmanomics did a hell of a job on their economy. :sarcasm:

[Dr.Phool]

47. Even better......Chile

[ozymandius]

54. He talked about Chile's faux miracle?

From Greg Palast:

The Chicago Boys persuaded the junta that removing restrictions on the nation's banks would free them to attract foreign capital to fund industrial expansion.

Pinochet sold off the state banks - at a 40% discount from book value - and they quickly fell into the hands of two conglomerate empires controlled by speculators Javier Vial and Manuel Cruzat. From their captive banks, Vial and Cruzat siphoned cash to buy up manufacturers - then leveraged these assets with loans from foreign investors panting to get their piece of the state giveaways.

The bank's reserves filled with hollow securities from connected enterprises. Pinochet let the good times roll for the speculators. He was persuaded that Governments should not hinder the logic of the market.

By 1982, the pyramid finance game was up. The Vial and Cruzat "Grupos" defaulted. Industry shut down, private pensions were worthless, the currency swooned. Riots and strikes by a population too hungry and desperate to fear bullets forced Pinochet to reverse course. He booted his beloved Chicago experimentalists. Reluctantly, the General restored the minimum wage and unions' collective bargaining rights. Pinochet, who had previously decimated government ranks, authorized a program to create 500,000 jobs.
In other words, Chile was pulled from depression by dull old Keynesian remedies, all Franklin Roosevelt, zero Reagan/Thatcher. New Deal tactics rescued Chile from the Panic of 1983, but the nation's long-term recovery and growth since then is the result of - cover the children's ears - a large dose of socialism.

Some miracle. And just think the Friedmanites want to do the same with the United States.

[Dr.Phool]

61. Oh yeah,

He railed about how Allende and the unions had the economy on it's knees (he forgot to mention the assist from the CIA), and if like magic Pinochet and Friedman rode in to save the day.

The first few parts of the series was pretty good. Talked about John Law, the bond markets, the Civil War, etc. Then the last part started turning my stomach.

[ozymandius]

30. Maybe he pays to much attention to his delusional colleague, Greg Mankiw.

They both teach at Harvard University. Ferguson really should stick to history. Economic forecasting is not his forté.

[ozymandius]

29. I respect Niall Ferguson though I do not always agree with him.

He expects the United States to default on Social Security and Medicare. He is also against the implementation of another stimulus package as advocated by Paul Krugman. There I am in strong, visceral disagreement with Professor Ferguson.

We cannot have it his way: growth without stimulus and stimulus without increasing national debt. He cites one example when one nation grew its way out of an economic depression (South Sea, 1720) without igniting inflation and spurring a sharp increase on the interest rates on sovereign bonds. The UK grew it way out of the disastrous South Sea bubble and crash of 1720 through sweeping industrialization reforms. These economic events did two things: Britain was able to produce more goods with less work -essentially making a unit of work more efficient through the force multiplier of factory machinery- and increased employment in the manufacturing sectors. The Empire supplied markets for these goods and services even though maintenance of the empire had become a drain on the treasury through its constant need of standing armies to protect its commercial interests.

I also disagree that with his one example of growth through stimulus without harrowing bond rates. This occurred during the 1930's in America under FDR's New Deal #1 and New Deal #2 initiatives. These bonds had a nominal interest rate of 5%. That was expensive but hardly inflammatory in terms of yield. The War Bonds issued in 1941 yielded 2.9% interest.

The bond market world has changed dramatically since the New Deal. However, mechanisms still remain in place to insulate the marketing of new debt from the bond vigilantes. We badly need the infusion of money to rebuild what the past thirty years of domestic economic policy have destroyed.

Editing for some clarity: Growth will require stimulus. Stimulus will require increasing the national debt. Viable options are few. Fear of debt will compound the damage we have sustained from domestic economic policy imbalances.

[Tansy_Gold]

36. Bonds, schmonds. What everyone is tiptoeing around is JOBS

The kind of jobs that actually create wealth, in the Marxist, basic economics 101 sense of creating wealth. Manufacturing jobs, and the services that support them, everything from groundskeepers to data entry clerks to forklift drivers to electricians.

In a way, that's another "tax" on the rich, because it repatriates higher paying jobs and reduces profits that currently flow almost exclusively the parasite class. Okay, Whirlpool, you wanta make your washing machines in Mexico and pay Mexican workers $1 an hour so you can make an extra $30 on each unit sold? Then you will pay a labor cost adjustment fee of $35 per washer imported to the U.S. $30 of that is the direct lost wages, and the other $5 is to cover some of the multiplication of that $30 that's been removed from the U.S. economy.

Look, I know I'm not stupid. I may not be well versed in some of the details of "the markets," but am I so completely ignorant of economics that my focus on manufacturing jobs is all wrong? One guy was telling me last night that "manufacturing is so 1940s." He said technology was the answer, but I thought that went out with the 90s. Again, what do I know?

It's the same with WPA/CCC jobs. If the dollars end up in China, have we accomplished anything, other than going deeper in debt by borrowing the stimulus dollars from China? Do I have a skewed understanding of the cycle of cash flow? You pay people to make things and they take their paycheck to buy things made by other people and the total wealth increases by the value of the products made? Is that wrong? Is that too basic? Have the fundamental principles of economics changed? Do we no longer have supply and demand? Do we no longer have wealth creation when things are made?

There is a lot of teh stooopid out there. It's scary. But I'm not capable of letting it go unchallenged.



Tansy Gold, NTY

[BootinUp]

37. Are Profits Hurting Capitalism ? - Op-Ed NYT

Are Profits Hurting Capitalism?
By YVES SMITH and ROB PARENTEAU
Published: July 2, 2010

snip

Over the past decade and a half, corporations have been saving more and investing less in their own businesses. A 2005 report from JPMorgan Research noted with concern that, since 2002, American corporations on average ran a net financial surplus of 1.7 percent of the gross domestic product — a drastic change from the previous 40 years, when they had maintained an average deficit of 1.2 percent of G.D.P. More recent studies have indicated that companies in Europe, Japan and China are also running unprecedented surpluses.

The reason for all this saving in the United States is that public companies have become obsessed with quarterly earnings. To show short-term profits, they avoid investing in future growth. To develop new products, buy new equipment or expand geographically, an enterprise has to spend money — on marketing research, product design, prototype development, legal expenses associated with patents, lining up contractors and so on.

snip

What if a government instead embarks on an austerity program? Income growth will stall, and household wages and business profits may fall.

snip

So instead of pursuing budget retrenchment, policymakers need to create incentives for corporations to reinvest their profits in business operations. One way to do this would be to impose an aggressive tax on retained earnings that are not reinvested within two years. Another approach would be a tax on the turnover of corporate financial investments that would raise the cost of speculating with profits, rather than putting them into the business.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/06/opinion/06smith.html?_r=1&ref=contributors

[ozymandius]

39. "manufacturing is so 1940s." Heh. What a dumbass.

Technology is the future? Technology in what? Chinese solar panels? Silicon Valley is not hiring even with so many new technologies introduced to the American market.

Jeebus! I despise sound bite media.

[Tansy_Gold]

40. Here you go

from this thread
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8702596



KonaKane (1000+ posts) Tue Jul-06-10 09:49 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. I hate to break this to you, but relying on manufacturing alone is a loser.


This is not the 1940s anymore.

Starting in the 60s, the basis of our economy started shifting from manufacturing to technology. And that's where it is still going today. The only hope our nation has of creating new jobs is in technology. We have shown the ability to lead in the market, and can keep doing it if we apply ourselves and new fields of technological development. If we tried to turn the clock back and chase the manufacturing ghost, we would be engaging in a masochistic enterprise of self defeat.

You sound impassioned and educated, so I implore you to get with the times.



****************

My responses are there, too, obviously.

[DemReadingDU]

45. Tansy - your responses are excellent

Unfortunately, too many people have become indoctrinated in propaganda that they fail to comprehend the dire situation in this country, and the world. Because the policies won't be changed, we will eventually implode. And then we will be told...no one could have foreseen this, totally unexpected, etc.

[ozymandius]

49. Thanks! Your responses are like thunderbolts.

I have responded in kind to that naïve comment about manufacturing being so 1960s.

[ozone_man]

52. We are leaders in technology,

for now anyway. One problem with centering just on technology is that it excludes a large part of the population. If they can't manufacture, they're left with lower paying service sector jobs. The whole thing is driven by globalization and cheap foreign labor. It may take an equalization of that before manufacturing starts returning to the U.S. Unless we get tough on corporations who export jobs overseas. I like the idea of taxing them (like you suggest), perhaps to produce jobs here in green energy areas, and infrastructure renovation.

But, Obama has to think bigger than $2 billion on solar. More like $100 billion (to start) on green energy, including solar, wind, biofuel, etc. How do we justify spending $180 billion to bail out AIG, and all of the other banksters, while we offer tiny amounts in key areas like renewable energy? Time to end or severely regulate derivative trading and sending these rocket scientists from Wall Street back in the R&D labs, where they belong. I’m afraid it’s going to take another, deeper failure of the banking system, before that will happen. And it will.

"It seems to me what our nation needs is more civil engineers and electrical engineers and fewer financial engineers" - Paul Volcker

[Demeter]

81. We Are Total FAILURES In POLICY

We are held back by the fools who make decisions like "manufacturing is passe, everyone should be an information worker"--because what that really means is paper-pusher. There's very little work done in information--which is pure research, which died a strangulated death with the 70's.

Until the policies change either in the Corporation or in the Government, preferably both, we are not going to progress. We will continue to regress to cave living under current policies.

[Dr.Phool]

55. Jane, you poor, ignorant, misguided slut!

:hi:

[ozymandius]

57. It hurts, doesn't it?

It hurts to see someone wear stupid like a medal.

Edit to add: not Tansy - but the other poster who is okay to see manufacturing disappear.

[Tansy_Gold]

58. My name's not Jane.

:rofl:

:hi:


Tansy Gold, who has had her slutty days. . . ..

[Dr.Phool]

62. That sounded like the Akroyd lecture he was giving you.

[Tansy_Gold]

65. Ha ha, you're quite correct.

I missed that, right over the top of my pointed little head.


Duh.



But then again,



I'm Tansy Gold, and you're not.

[florida08]

66. that was enjoyable reading

People don't understand about fiat money. It only has value when it's spent. It's not gold and holds no value on its own. You explained it well. When it's spent here for Chinese imports it doesn't help this economy. Everything that our government has done wrong devalues it enormously. Trade imbalances, ridiculously low interest rates and overspending. But long term high unemployment has a two-fold impact. It creates a loss in tax revenue and reduces consumer spending. Two very important aspects to a healthy economy.

This chart shows how much the dollar has been devalued since the 80's. http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001519.html
This suggests to me we have been on the wrong track since then.

Like you stated when the circle is broken the power for the stimulus to actually make things better in the long run is lost in the system we have.

Some states have used it to pay down their debt. Didn't stimulate anything. But basically it worked in the short run. The problem is states are still bleeding..jobs are still being lost even at a slower rate it's not good. The stimulus may not have been big enough and lot of it was squandered, but if we don't get people back to work they're going to start a hatchet job on government programs. That's where we're headed. It's what the neoliberals want. They're now in a position to make it sound "reasonable" to the ones still working.

The government spending during the depression was 120% of GDP. BUT FDR did not bailout the banks. He stood up to them. The stimulus should have been bottom/up not top/down. They still hold trillions of toxic and junk derivatives that will never be worth a dime.
They're not being held accountable for those. They're acting as if nothing happened. It doesn't look good for the home team.

[Tansy_Gold]

85. Exactly. Exactly. Exactly.

And you've said so well the things I can't even begin to explain. I mean, I *know* what you're talking about, but those concepts aren't yet in my commonsense understanding.

And of course the two biggest problems -- imho -- facing our economy are the enormous sums of OUR money being spent on a.) bailing out the already rich; and b.) the wars.

Let the big banks fail. Sure, it'll hurt all of us for a while. But when it gets sorted out -- and I don't think it would take very long -- the economy will be the healthier for it. The rich, eh, not so much, but they lived well on our dime long enough.

The paid job calls and I'm way behind schedule.



Tansy Gold, who is rooting for the home team but is NOT a cheerleader

[florida08]

95. well

I learn from you,and what I learn from others I pass on. It really was a joy to read. I am sick of bailing out the corps. and getting the shaft at the same time.

PS..Not a cheerleader..LOLOL

[ozymandius]

33. MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Decrease, Refis increase

by Calculated Risk

The MBA reports: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 9.2 percent from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index observed in the survey since the week ending May 15, 2009. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier. The Purchase Index has decreased eight of the last nine weeks.

---

More at link...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/mba-mortgage-purchase-applications.html

[ozymandius]

38. Casino's open.

9:48
Dow 9,761.56 17.94 (0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,102.66 8.78 (0.42%)
S&P 500 1,031.01 2.95 (0.29%)

09:45 am : The stock market is up with a solid gain in the first few minutes of trade. Gains are strongest among financial plays, which are up an enviable 1.1%. Such a gain is more than triple that of the broader market.

In contrast, telecom is under sharp pressure. The sector has already shed 1.4%. DJ30 +13.63 NASDAQ +9.34 SP500 +3.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1518/149 mln/656 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1902/76 mln/695

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. News flow remains slow, so market participants are still without any major trading catalysts. Despite that, stock futures have worked their way up to the flat line and the major bourses of Europe have trimmed their losses. Without any announcements from major firms or any economic data, many may hone in on the euro, which is currently down 0.3% against the dollar amid choppy trade. However, the overall lack of headlines could leave many participants on the sidelines this session. An unwillingness to commit to stocks could also stem from a lack of confidence in the broader market after it struggled to book its first gain in a week during the prior session.

[Po_d Mainiac]

53. What do u think this says?

"At Deutsche Bank, this is the key problem we're trying to solve in electronic trading," Marques said. "We're taking the best tools that statistical and low-latency traders use for providing liquidity and turning them into buyside tools for taking liquidity."

http://www.tradersmagazine.com/news/deutsche-bank-algorithms-stealth-superx-jose-marques-106043-1.html?ET=tradersmagazine:e622:55569a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=tm_xtra_070610

I read "we find someone with an outdated system (over 2 hours old) that just put some money into the market, and we take it"

:puke:

Casino indeed!

[ozymandius]

56. That is casino-style finance.

Casinos operate on the same basic principle. Time of bet, odds of winning and turnover all factor into how much money is extracted from the bets.

[Po_d Mainiac]

68. But even Vegas doesn't put the croupier's Roullette Wheel brake pedal,

in plain view of the marks.

[Ghost Dog]

70. U.S. Stocks Halt Global Slump

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks rallied, while the dollar and Treasuries erased earlier gains, as growth in U.S. retail sales bolstered optimism in the earnings season and investors speculated that European banks will pass stress tests.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.3 percent to 1,041.42 at 12:08 p.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.4 percent, erasing a tumble of as much as 1.5 percent, and the MSCI World Index of stocks in 24 developed nations added to gains from its biggest advance in a month yesterday. The Dollar Index was little changed, reversing a 0.4 percent rise, and 10-year Treasury yields rose two basis point to 2.95 percent after slipping as low as 2.91 percent. Oil and copper jumped.

Retailers advanced as the International Council of Shopping Centers said sales were growing at the fastest pace since 2006, easing concern that a slump in consumer confidence will undermine the economic recovery. Banks led the rally as State Street Corp. reported a profit and people with knowledge of the talks said European stress tests may assume a 17 percent loss on Greek bonds, half of the worst-case scenario estimated by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

...

European stocks advanced as Banco Santander SA, Banco Popular Espanol SA and Barclays Plc led a rally in banks.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-07/asian-stocks-fall-yen-strengthens-on-slowing-u-s-service-industry-growth.html


European shares rise for second day; banks lead

LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - European shares reversed early losses to close higher on Wednesday, with banks surging after State Street said earnings would beat forecasts, and on optimism stress tests might not be as bad as feared.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares rose 1.3 percent to a provisional close of 1,003.87 points, after falling to as low as 976.63 earlier in the session. The index has risen 3.9 percent in two sessions, but is still down 10 percent from a mid-April peak, on worries about debt levels in Europe and economic growth.

Spanish banks featured among top gainers, with heavyweights Banco Santander and BBVA up 6.7 and 6.6 percent respectively.

'State Street's statement makes people think banking earnings will be good for the quarter,' said Joshua Raymond, market strategist at City Index. 'And there's hope of transparency on the stress tests.'

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-07/17350664-european-shares-rise-for-second-day-banks-lead-020.htm

[Ghost Dog]

71. Beware of the Big Bear Market

There are several indications for an oncoming bear market.

First and foremost, the daily Ichimoku cloud indicator produced a strong sell signal (chart below, yellow box) for the SP500 (^GSPC on Yahoo) last Friday, July 2, 2010. You can also note from the Ichimoku chart that the SP500 is trading below the cloud, which indicates a bearish bias in the long term. In the intermediate and short term, the market is trading below both the Tenkan-sen (9-day turning line – “TL”) and the Kijun-sen (26-day standard line – “SL”). Thus, every indication from the Ichimoku daily chart is that the market is very bearish, so long traders should be cautious.



Over the last 10 years, there have only been 5 occasions when the Ichimoku daily SP500 reflected a strong sell signal. Three of these occurred before the October 9, 2002 low of 776.76 and 2 occurred prior to the March 9, 2009 low of 676.53. For the October 9, 2002 low of the 776.76, the change in the SP500 was -42.1% after the November 24, 2000 signal, -34.1% after the August 15, 2001 signal, and -25.4% after the June 3, 2002 signal. Whereas, for the March 9, 2009 low of 676.53, the change in the SP500 after the January 4, 2008 signal was -52.1% and the change after the January 20, 2009 signal was -16.0% (yellow boxes in chart below). The main point with these signals is that after the initial strong sell signal appeared on November 24, 2000 and January 4, 2008, the total corrections were -42.1% and -52.1%, respectively.



...

The strong Ichimoku sell signal that appeared last Friday for the SP500 should serve as a big warning. The SP500 price return index is a weighted composite of 500 equities, which aside from CBOE or VIX, reflects tremendous momentum in investor sentiment -- and therefore -- trends lasting for several weeks have significant merit for determining longer-term bull and bear market signals. Unfortunately, strong Ichimoku sell signals that have occurred in the daily SP500 have *only* occurred immediately prior to large market sell-offs, such as the subprime mortgage crisis in September/October 2008, and between 2000-2003 during the tsunami that followed the tech bubble burst.

/... http://seekingalpha.com/article/213195-beware-of-the-big-bear-market?source=article_sb_popular

About the author: Leif Peterson is a statistician and pattern recognition expert specializing in machine learning and computational intelligence(neural networks). He has over 60 peer-reviewed publications on statistical methods and machine learning algorithms, and has been modeling stock equity returns using genetic algorithms and neural networks, and modeling inter-market relationships between indexes for the last 5 years...

[Roland99]

73. Well, they're luring the suckers in now. Well into the triple digits in gains.

for the DJIA, that is.

[Ghost Dog]

82. So it would seem.

Although, in general, Europe's banks will turn out to appear to be healthier than the mouth-breathers have been claiming, I opine.

UK and US markets are the ones to watch now.

[BootinUp]

86. Alternate viewpoint

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/doug-kass-stocks-have-hit-bottom-for-the-year-517083.html?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc,spy,dia,%5Eixic,qqqq,tlt&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners, famous for calling the market bottom in March 2009, isn't worried. In fact, he's bullish. "I think we've seen the lows of the year," he tells Tech Ticker guest host Jon Najarian of OptionMonster.com. "The market's are traveling on a path of fear and share prices have significantly disconnected from fundamentals," he says.

Kass predicts stocks will rise 10%-12% by year's end on the back of strong earnings and a better-than-expected economic recovery. He says positive trends in the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index and improved labor market conditions point to "moderate domestic economic expansion, not a double dip."

Trading at around 11 times earnings, stocks are fairly inexpensive, says Kass. He notes stocks generally trade at around 15 times future earnings, and even higher in periods of tame inflation and low interest rates, as we're currently experiencing.

It may not be a V-shaped rally like that of 2009, but Kass says we've just started building a base, which could lead to a fundamentally stronger and longer-lasting rally in the future.

[InkAddict]

46. Are we still watching - Here's the new PG standings

Last Trade: 59.28
Trade Time: 10:29AM EDT
Change: 0.06 (0.10%)
Prev Close: 59.34
Open: 59.50
Bid: 59.28 x 100
Ask: 59.28 x 1800
1y Target Est: 70.24
Day's Range: 59.12 - 59.60
52wk Range: 39.37 - 64.58
Volume: 3,652,062
Avg Vol (3m): 14,541,700
Market Cap: 170.72B
P/E (ttm): 14.14
EPS (ttm): 4.19
Div & Yield: 1.93 (3.20%

Started off @ $60.80, so guess it's down some
How 'bout the others?

[ozymandius]

64. Sorry - I had forgotten.

ozymandius watches MSFT
mbperrin watches XOM
Po_d Mainiac watches PCL
InkAddict watches P&G

Link to quote engine:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=msft

Link to original article:
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/fortune/1005/gallery.retire_rich_picks.fortune/index.html

6/1/10 MSFT price at $25.80
Last Trade: 24.10
Trade Time: 11:05AM EDT
Change: 0.28 (1.18%)
Prev Close: 23.82
Market Cap: 211.21B
P/E (ttm): 12.49
EPS (ttm): 1.93
Div & Yield: 0.52 (2.20%)

[mbperrin]

76. Here's XOM

6/1/10 XOM price at $59.25
Last Trade: 58.03
Trade Time: 1:12PM EDT
Change: up 0.57 (0.99%)
Prev Close: 57.46
Market Cap: 272.62B
P/E (ttm): 13.22
EPS (ttm): 4.39
Div & Yield: 1.76 (3.10%)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=xom

[DemReadingDU]

51. Two Beers with Steve and Stoneleigh

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV7o7m9JoVc appx 10 minute audio


More from Steve about Stoneleigh

7/5/10 The Modern Day Paul Revere
After a few years of consuming and digesting massive amounts of information pertaining to our current financial/energy crisis I find it rare that I consume a 'game-changer'. So it was exciting to have an MP3 forwarded to me that provided me with that game-changing moment.

Now, when I say game-changer, I'm not talking about What will happen, but rather How it will happen. The How is focused on the debate about whether deflation or inflation will win the day. Because to get from where we are, (a debt-saturated global economy) to there, (historically normal debt ratios), we have to go down either one of two paths; inflation or deflation. For the most part I really don't care, the outcome of both still means that I need to move up the learning curve on my gardening skills, start building a local community, and continue to keep educating myself on all matters that pertain to self-sufficiency.

Where inflation vs. deflation matters to me is how should I react with my investing strategy. This is why the debate has importance to me and probably you. In this interview Nicole Foss of Automatic Earth makes a compelling case for deflation, probably the best I've heard as of yet.

The title of this episode comes from the fact that Nicole is criss-crossing the globe in an effort to prepare those that are ready to hear her message that something life-altering is coming. Just as Paul Revere rode through Lexington to warn the patriots of sudden attack, Nicole is globe-trotting to warn the patriots of sudden collapse.

Click for a link to download the entire 48 minutes audio
http://twobeerswithsteve.libsyn.com/index.php?post_id=629329

or listen directly at this link
http://media.libsyn.com/media/twobeerswithsteve/Episode_54_-_Nicole_Foss_-_Modern_Day_Paul_Revere.mp3

[Demeter]

84. Now, how fast will today's bubble evaporate, as 3 PM approaches?

Somebody's been working his butt off.

[TalkingDog]

87. Straining for the PIL 10K Hope they don't get a hernia.....n/t

[TalkingDog]

89. Wow, I think the Dow needs a cigarette...

Always a surprise. And that's why I keep coming back.

[Roland99]

90. At the close - Get your Blow Pops, suckers!

Dow 10,018 +275 +2.82%
Nasdaq 2,159 +66 +3.13%
S&P 500 1,060 +32 +3.13%
GlobalDow 1,757 +29 +1.68%
Gold 1,203 +4 +0.33%
Oil 74.47 +2.49 +3.46%

[TheWatcher]

91. Give them Credit. They pulled a Rabbit Out Of The Hat on the flimsiest of foundations and cover

I have seen in a LONG Time.

So basically they had their 10,000 Party today, and if we are to believe The Propaganda Ministry, this is the sole reason:

Wall Street Soars as Investors Feel Earnings Optimism; Dow Reclaims 10,000

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-Street-surges-on-rb-2051824079.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks logged their best one-day gain in more than a month on Wednesday after a bullish forecast from financial company State Street Corp (NYSE:STT - News) fueled optimism about the coming earnings season.

Really? SERIOUSLY?

So basically we are now being told there will be no double-dip, (There was never any Recovery to begin with, but keep in mind, this IS Pravda 2.0 after all) Goldman is now telling everyone to stay fully invested, and now we are being told Earnings will be rosy, bright, and optimistic, and another mindless Orgy based on hyperbole, "forecasts", and "optimism" takes place again, signaling yet another week of torturous, mindless, Algo-driven Bullshit.

All this after only 48-72 Hours ago, The Ministry Of Bullshit was OPENLY Using the "D" Word, and we were being told that the Dow was repeating the 1930 Pattern of The Great Depression.


Look, at this point we are either headed for the darkest economic time in history, or this Crisis has all been a manufactured lie, and doesn't exist. It's one or the other.

Which do you think it is?

China Property Values Collapsing? No Problem.

Europe Still Collapsing? No Problem

Record Unemployment with no improvement maybe EVER? No Problem.

Banks still reporting phantom Profits despite the fact they are insolvent? No Problem.

Dollar continues to devalue? No Problem.

Oil Spill Apocalypse? No Problem.

Looming Wars in the Middle East? No Problem.

This doesn't need to go on like this.

It CAN'T.

This is not sustainable, and it doesn't even matter. It's an Algo-Driven Casino that serves no other purpose than to enrich those who control it. The rest of us are headed into a Feudal State. Most people cannot understand this, don't think it exists, and probably still won't think it exists when it becomes an inescapable reality.

But then again, knowing what the consequences of Collapse are, that is hardly something any of us should hope for.

So what it there to hope for?

I don't know.

I'll let you know as soon as the World starts making sense again. :)

[DemReadingDU]

92. The last hurrah today?

Followed by something wicked tomorrow, or very soon
:(

[TheWatcher]

93. Something very bad is coming down the road DRDU, I can assure you of that.

They are trying to numb the Public before it happens.

They came out a couple of days ago and casually talked about Depression, finally telling the Truth for the first time since the whole thing began.

And now it's back to The Truman Show.

This is how Behavioral Engineering Works.

They tell you the truth for one News cycle, so if they need to come back and Cover their ass and say we were warned, they can.

But they never need to because "No One Could Have Foreseen...." has worked out for them so well so far.

[DemReadingDU]

94. If my family is any indication of the majority

They are not paying attention to the news. They are discussing their vacation plans, their new car, new house, new toys, etc. I was just with them on July 4th, and they are clueless, totally.
May God help us all.

[Tansy_Gold]

96. Abuse

The theory has a name but I can't remember what it's called and i have to get ready for a meeting or I'd look it up.

But what it amounts to is the abuser escalates the abuse ever so gradually and always promises never to do it again. The abused becomes accustomed to the lower level of abuse so that when a large escalation occurs, retreat to the lower level seems like a return to "normalcy." Eventually, "normalcy" is simply a lesser but increasingly high level of abuse.

Teh styoopid is rampant.

[TheWatcher]

97. I believe "Battered Persons Syndrome" or "Stockholm Syndrome" is what you are looking for.

I could be wrong on that, and someone please correct me if I am.

And yes, that is EXACTLY what is happening here.

And it is also fueled by denial, willful ignorance, and even outright SUPPORT and DEFENSE of the Abusers.

You see it every day on DU, and it is very, very shocking.

You really nailed it on the head with that Analysis, Tansy.

We are not only up against the Abusers, but the Abused who seem to like it and defend it with every fiber of their Being.

Where does that leave those who can see?

Cornered.

[AnneD]

103. I am thinking about the story...

of boiling a frog. If you put them boiling water they hop out. But if you put it in cold water and gradually heat it, the frog remains, until the water heats to a boil and it is killed.

[hamerfan]

98. Forget ponies.

After what happened today, it's unicorns for everyone!
Dow up 275
S&P 500 up 32
NASDAQ up 66
BTW, what DID happen today? :eyes:

[TheWatcher]

99. Some Financial Company "Forecasted" "Optimism" about Earnings

So everything is fine again. :crazy:

Mostly hyperbolic Bullshit.

[hamerfan]

100. Oh, noes!

And people, errr, marks are still falling for that crap?
Sheesh. We get what we deserve.
How about a nice unicorn? Low miles, one owner, a little old lady.....

[AnneD]

104. The owner....

has to be a virgin.

[Demeter]

101. 5.4 earthquake outside San Diego at 8pm eastern daylight, 5 pm local

guess the earth is laughing at wall st.