STOCK MARKET WATCH, THURSDAY JULY 31.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday July 31, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 540
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 261
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 233 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 291 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 133
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 617
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 30, 2003

Dow 9,200.05 -4.41 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,720.91 -10.46 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 987.47 -1.81 (-0.18%)
10-Year Bond 4.32% -0.08 (-1.89%)
Gold future...... 358.50 +0.40 (+0.11%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. 'Beige book' shows hopeful signs

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve sees signs the U.S. economy is improving, especially in the long-suffering manufacturing sector.

But a report released Wednesday by the central bank said goods prices still appeared soft in much of the country and it also said there had been an unexpected jump in car inventories during June and July.

"Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve districts provided additional signs that the pace of economic activity increased a notch during June and the first half of July," the Fed said in its "beige book," which summarizes anecdotal information the central bank receives from its business contacts around the country.

"In particular, manufacturing activity edged higher in most districts, and Philadelphia and Richmond cited an end to the recent declines in production," the Fed said.

story

[Maeve]

2. Initial Claims for unemployment come in at 388K

That is good news, since it's under the 400K level and indicates a growth of jobs. However, the spin out there is a bit confusing. The last report was 386K, so this was a slight rise--BUT the figure was revised up to 391K, so it's a drop....

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning Maeve.

Good to see you here. Here's some cheer for ya.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

[Maeve]

12. I need the caffeine today!

I'll be around today and gone tomorrow. (Then back for a week and gone again!)

Looks like a great day in the Wall Street neighborhood and we may see a boost from the various sources of good news. I think I'll be able to post more today without typing "font color=red" so much.

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

Inflation By Any Other Name

I got into this business over 24 years ago after spending 4 years in public accounting and corporate life. When I started my career in the investment business, it was a lot different than where it is today. Back then nobody had any confidence in government or its paper. It was a terrible time to be holding paper assets. The inflation rate was in the double-digit range, interest rates were in the mid-teens reflecting inflation worries and the stock market had gone virtually nowhere after peaking in 1966.

The 1970s was a period that became an extended bear market for paper assets. Stocks performed horribly and bonds continued to lose money each year for investors as inflation eroded their value. In the investment business, bonds were referred to as “certificates of confiscation.” Inflation continued to erode their value each year as the Fed furiously pumped new money and credit into the financial system. Economic growth was anemic despite government’s attempt at fiscal stimulus. The Fed was monetizing government debt. What the government couldn’t raise through taxes, it gained by printing money and depreciating the currency. Inflation was simply another means of taxation of exacting additional revenues out of the economy.

Despite attempts to inflate and stimulate the economy, economic growth was anemic and inflation remained high. Economists invented a new term to refer to the economy’s dismal performance and high inflation rates. This term was stagflation. Webster’s Dictionary defines stagflation as “an economic condition marked by a continuing inflation together with a decline in business activity and an increase in unemployment.” That is where we are today. We are coming full circle to where we were 24 years ago when I got into this business.

I believe stagflation is why interest rates are now beginning to rise. The bond market is just waking up to the fact that it has been fooled by the Fed. Inflation is and always will be a monetary phenomenon. As along as the Fed expands credit or debt-based money into the economy or the financial system, we will always have inflation.

more..

Emphasis added by author.

[ozymandius]

5. Remember: It's a JOB-LOSS recovery

Pillowtex files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Pillowtex, the US household textiles company, said on Wednesday it was dismissing 6,450 staff and closing all of its 16 plants as it sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

It is the second time in less than three years that Pillowtex has filed under Chapter 11 as it has struggled, like others in the US textiles industry, with relatively high labour costs and cheap imports. Much of the industry has moved offshore to cheaper centres, with many US factories closing. Pillowtex emerged from bankruptcy only last year. But it said on Wednesday it was no longer seeking to reorganise and wanted to sell its assets.

story

[ozymandius]

6. Fed: Growth Up a Notch, Factories on Mend

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy has picked up pace over the past six weeks and optimism is rising even within the long-suffering manufacturing sector, the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) said in a report on Wednesday.

The central bank said goods prices still appeared soft in much of the country. The Fed's "beige book" also cited an unexpected jump in car inventories during June and July but it said production was "pretty good."

story

[jamesinca]

10. I was just about to mention this layoff,

You beat me to it.

ozymandius, dare I ask your opinion of the day again? Yesterday you hit it right on the head, you said in light of everything the markets would close down a little. They did, just a little. Nothing looked like it fell off of the table as far as graphs go, maybe a step on the stairs, but no tables.

[ozymandius]

15. Remember what I said about my $1.75 opinion?

Well, then, I'll take a swing at today's market results.

Misleading as the economic indicators are, such as the unemployment claims and a GDP that relies heavily on defense spending, the marketeers will jump on the headlines as gospel truth of overall economic health. So I expect a healthy rise in the DJIA and the S&P. The Nasdaq will not do as well because telecoms and gadget makers are reportedly suffering losses.

Which companies are taking a hit? Telecommunications. The telecoms are making the news as expectations fall short of claims. ISP, especially broadband providers are burdened with low demand and high wage costs. This is one sector that is probably due for another shakedown.

GE will do well today as this company is so diversified as to look, walk and act like a mutual fund with heavy defense contractor interests. I predict GE's performance will be brisk over the next few days.

Microsoft too. Microsoft is in the news as having just turned "middle aged" in a fledgling technology market. Bill Gates is also in the news as having heavily invested in Mexico's top ranked media group, Grupo Televisa, to the tune of 7% holdings. Buyers will congratulate Gates for Microsoft's premature "middle age" milestone by buying Microsoft shares. This will also help boost the Dow.

IBM also grabbed headlines with the revelation of a newly developed technology that will make it easier to produce animated films. Boon for the Dow, again.

As fast as attention flies on the trade floor and as eager as traders are to grasp at good news, I feel that today's trading activity will be brisk. Brisk trading will be the underlayment for double-digit gains in the Dow, significant gains for the S&P (relative to S&P's frequently modest numbers) and slim gains for Nasdaq.

[jamesinca]

16. Once again thanks, me and my $1.75 are going out to SB now

.

[ozymandius]

25. I forgot one VERY important thing.

It is the day before payday for millions of people. So the payroll deductions for millions of IRAs will be made today. This, too, will boost the markets as automated "buy" programs flood the markets with money. So the valuations relative to corporate performance are not as reliable as the average numbers would indicate.

[ozymandius]

7. Refinancing Wave Breaks as Rates Rise

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Demand for mortgage refinancings -- a lifeline for the anemic U.S. economy -- sank last week to lows not seen since last December, an industry survey reported on Wednesday.

Fewer consumers applied for loans to buy homes, and the jump in borrowing costs fanned concern among economists that a rapid rise in borrowing costs over the past six weeks may hobble the economic recovery.

"Where's the fork? Refis are done," Drew Matus, economist at Lehman Brothers, quipped in a report.

story

[ozymandius]

8. Economy Grows at 2.4 Percent Rate

WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy, lifted by consumer and business spending, broke out of the doldrums and grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2003, the strongest showing in nearly a year.

The report reinforced the hope that the nation's economy, shedding war and other uncertainties that had bogged it down earlier, would gain more traction in the second half of this year.

story

[wellst0nev0ter]

19. Wow! That's Almost As High As The GDP Growth Clinton Had

In his WORST days. And back in 1995 the cons were bitching about the 2.5 percent growth rate and how it represents the failure of Clinton's economic plan.

Now we have a growth rate one tick below that rate, and things couldn't be better, talk about your lowered expectations :eyes:

[stevebreeze]

34. but if you discount the increase in military spending

it's just as anemic as it has been(shave about a point off the 2.4%)
:kick:

[ozymandius]

9. pre-open yammering

Stocks Set to Open Higher, Lifted by GDP

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were set to open sharply higher on Thursday after a report showed U.S. gross domestic product grew at a faster than expected rate.
<..cut..>
The pickup in gross domestic product, or GDP, from an annual rate of 1.4 percent in each of the two prior quarters, easily beat Wall Street economists' forecasts for a 1.5 percent pace of second-quarter growth.

More economic data will come on Thursday, including the Chicago Purchasing Management Index, expected at 10:00 a.m. (1400 GMT).

story

[ozymandius]

11. Treasuries Turn Tail After Data Surprise

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasuries shed their early gains and turned sharply lower Thursday after data on jobs and economic growth proved stronger than expected, giving a boost to those looking for a powerful recovery.

The labor market has been the weakest spot in the economy, so even this tentative sign of improvement will be seized on by optimists as evidence of a turning point, according to traders.

story

[Maeve]

13. 9:35 and here we go!!!!

Dow 9,270.57 +70.52 (+0.77%)
Nasdaq 1,735.77 +14.86 (+0.86%)
S&P 500 994.68 +7.19 (+0.73%)

[Maeve]

14. 9:49 and waiting for another shoe

9:45AM: As presaged by the futures trade, the cash market is off to a higher start... The positive bias is derived from the better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 2.4%, above the consensus of 1.5%, and lower-than-anticipated Initial Claims for the week of 7/26, which checked in at 388K versus the consensus of 400K... This is the second consecutive week of sub-400K reading for the Initial Claims report, which is suggestive of an expansionary bias in the employment market... The Chicago PMI report will be released at 10ET...
The market expects a reading of 53.8, above the Briefing.com consensus of 53.0 and the prior reading of 52.5... Also at 10ET is the release of the Help Wanted Index, which is expected to check in at 37, above the prior reading of 36...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,258.16 +58.11 (+0.63%)
Nasdaq 1,733.28 +12.37 (+0.72%)
S&P 500 993.41 +5.92 (+0.60%)

[Maeve]

17. 10:05 and soaring!

Chicago purchasing managers' index rises to 55.9 in July from 52.5 in June, better than expected. Details coming.

Dow 9,285.06 +85.01 (+0.92%)
Nasdaq 1,737.82 +16.91 (+0.98%)
S&P 500 994.93 +7.44 (+0.75%)

[ozymandius]

18. 10:04 and showing the bounce

DJIA 9,287.07 87.02 (0.95%)
NASDAQ 1,738.62 17.71 (1.03%)
S&P 500 994.95 7.46 (0.76%)

What a surprise from the Nasdaq.

[Coventina]

20. The "I Ching" on today's market

My DU is acting funny today. It doesn't seem to want me to use the "reply" function. Took me a long time to get this posted.

Anyway, today's reading is GRACE changing to CENSORSHIP. Neither makes any sense to me as far as market movement goes. I'll quote the changing line from Grace and see if any of you can interpret it, "You can rely now upon the sincerity of your true nature to supply your external radiance. Simplicity is the path you must take. In this way you will make no mistakes."
A quote from Censorship is, "It is tremendously important to maintain a fierce inner awareness of your goals during times when they seem most unattainable."

I guess my take is to keep your goals simple and don't lose sight of them, no matter how rough the road. Well, good advice at any time I guess. I'm going to say that the market will have a good day, with perhaps some cooling off by the end of the trading session.

[ozymandius]

22. Grace and Censorship

Each parable appears to say "hold the center" despite external influences. With regards to censorship: each of us would bode well to filter out distractions that would hinder long-term progress.

Quote from Shakespeare:

"Neither a borrower, nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
This above all: to thine own self be true

EDIT: From Hamlet - Polonius gives advice to his son, Laertes.

[ozymandius]

21. Whooeee! 10:52 numbers

DJIA 9,326.38 126.33 (1.37%)
NASDAQ 1,745.88 24.97 (1.45%)
S&P 500 1,000.11 12.62 (1.28%)

[Maeve]

23. 11:26 higher still with a side of blather

11:05AM: The market is surging higher... The precipitous turn upward could be, at least partially, attributed to some program trading activity... Also encouraging buying interest is the clearance of important near-term resistance levels... In the Nasdaq, clearance of the 1737/1740 resistance band and resistance at 1748 have invited additional buyers to step into the action... In the S&P 500, the significant technical action included the clearance of resistances at 993/994 and 998... The penetration of these barriers has opened the door to 1002 and 1004...
For more information on the technical outlook, make sure to read Briefing.com's brief The Technical Take from this morning...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,344.24 +144.19 (+1.57%)
Nasdaq 1,755.09 +34.18 (+1.99%)
S&P 500 1,003.36 +15.87 (+1.61%)

[ozymandius]

24. 11:26 and bouncing up

DJIA 9,344.87 144.82 (1.57%)
NASDAQ 1,755.33 34.42 (2.00%)
S&P 500 1,003.46 15.97 (1.62%)

[ozymandius]

26. 12:14 and hanging high

DJIA 9,345.71 145.66 (1.58%)
NASDAQ 1,753.43 32.52 (1.89%)
S&P 500 1,003.10 15.61 (1.58%)

[Maeve]

27. 1:15 sideways for a while, now edging up

Dow 9,357.82 +157.77 (+1.71%)
Nasdaq 1,755.70 +34.79 (+2.02%)
S&P 500 1,004.12 +16.63 (+1.68%)

[ozymandius]

28. 1:37 numbers and goodbye.

DJIA 9,351.38 151.33 (1.64%)
NASDAQ 1,753.82 32.91 (1.91%)
S&P 500 1,003.01 15.52 (1.57%)

Do I smell a hint of impending selloff?

See you folks tomorrow.

[Maeve]

29. 2:03 and largely sideways

Could be a selloff the last hour, but :shrug:

Dow 9,355.37 +155.32 (+1.69%)
Nasdaq 1,755.17 +34.26 (+1.99%)
S&P 500 1,003.90 +16.41 (+1.66%)

[Maeve]

30. 2:39 and slight dip

Dow 9,313.29 +113.24 (+1.23%)
Nasdaq 1,745.61 +24.70 (+1.44%)
S&P 500 998.77 +11.28 (+1.14%)

[Maeve]

31. 3:18 and we had a bit of profit-taking

Noted in the blather: "3:00PM: With an hour of trade remaining and the market not making much headway, traders are turning some of their profits into hard cash..." Little more buying right now, tho.

Dow 9,326.94 +126.89 (+1.38%)
Nasdaq 1,750.79 +29.88 (+1.74%)
S&P 500 1,000.54 +13.05 (+1.32%)

[Maeve]

32. I'll take "profit-taking" for $1000, Alex

"What happened in the last hour of trading today?" Yeah, this is a market full of folks who believe in the magic second half of the year...uh-huh.

Dow 9,233.80 +33.75 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 1,735.14 +14.23 (+0.83%)
S&P 500 990.32 +2.83 (+0.29%)

[radfringe]

33. WHOOOOAAAAAA NELLY

Listening to the radio on the way home, around 3ish - heard that the DOW was up over 100 points... got home flipped on the boob-tube and wheee-doggy them lemmings are grabbing the profits....

Lots of spin on the jobless numbers... look for HIGHER revised numbers to be released...

GDP UP... RECOVERY AROUND THE CORNER... getting dizzy from the spin - bulk of the increase in the GDP is the increase in defense spending by AWOL Inc. - doesn't mean it translates into jobs or a sign of growth, just means AWOL needs more bombs - he's got wars to tend to ya'know

Ok let's take a cue from the now defunct Pentagon Blood and Guts Casino - Place your Bets - Where will AWOL invade when he returns from vacation?
Iran, Syria, North Korea, East Overshoe, Idontunnerstan?

Magic 8-ball: With numbers being deftly spun, and lemmings taking their profits today, look for more gains tomorrow as marketeers hope to do a repeat.

The pattern had been for the lemmings to crowd around the SELL-SELL-SELL window on Fridays - the rational being that investors did not want to hold their positions over a weekend. But that has seemed to shift to the lemmings crowding around the BUY-BUY-BUY windows on Fridays.

Mentioned this before, but worth repeating... In the boom days of the 90's the talkingheads blathered about how the markets were overpriced when the DOWN hit 9k, then 10k, and 11k.... DOW is now at 9k and not a peep from talkingheads about the markets being overpriced....

What do you think? Are they overpriced and hyped?