70% chance of Gulf-bound tropical depression in Caribbean

[Cetacea]

Source: USA TODAY

A low pressure area over the western Caribbean has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression as it heads toward the Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center reports.

If a storm does form, it would be named Alex, and could play havoc with Gulf oil cleanup operations.

An Air Force reconnaissance plane will be investigating the disturbance later today to determine if a tropical cyclone has formed, the center says.

"Shower activity has become a little more concentrated this morning ... and surface pressures are falling," the center reports. "Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development ... and the system is likely to become a tropical depression before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days."

(Posted by Doug Stanglin)

Read more: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2010/06/70-chance-of-gulf-bound-tropical-depression-in-caribbean/1

[LaurenG]

1. A deluge of oil and corexit

wow. :(

[dgibby]

2. And it won't just be on the coast, either.

That stuff will be carried far inland. We are so screwed.

[SemperEadem]

10. I've been saying that for months now

this oil spill isn't just about the gulf. It's about the eastern 1/2- 1/3rd of the country.

[happygoluckytoyou]

15. EVERYTHING ABOUT THIS SPILL IS A F'ING DEPRESSION

[MountainLaurel]

3. I'll be watching this pretty closely

This could be the worst-case scenario a lot of people have been anxious about.

[slackmaster]

4. Probably headed for Yucatan

The real action is in the Pacific right now. Hurricane Celia was clocked with 130 knot winds.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

[Cetacea]

8. "before entering the central Gulf of Mexico..."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37921094/ns/disaster_in_the_gulf/

They've only got five days to evacuate the clean-up operations....

[slackmaster]

12. There is absolutely no reason at this point to evacuate the operation

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS
AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED.

2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Cetacea]

19. Did someone write that they should?

They estimate that it would take five days once they decide to evacuate. Got that?

[slackmaster]

24. Your use of the present rather then future progressive tense threw me off

"They've only got five days to evacuate the clean-up operations...."

In the event that a tropical cyclone is predicted to affect the cleanup area, they would have only five days to evacuate.

:hi:

[Cetacea]

30. Oi.

My writing skills, or lack of them have been getting me into all manner of trouble lately. Sorry, and Thanks!

[fl_dem]

5. shit!!

we so do not need a hurricane in the gulf.. I've lived on the coast in Ft Walton Bch FL for 20 years and have weathered many storms, evacuating only once, but I've never been more afraid as I am this season!!

[suzie]

7. +1

[dgibby]

11. I have friends there.

He's a retired Dr. I worked with him at the hospital in my hometown in Va/ before I joined the Navy. We lost touch over the years, but I'd love to know how they're doing. Mind if I pm you? You might know them.

[fl_dem]

21. please do...

[shanti]

6. this is a major worry

the upcoming hurricane season, combined with the oil :(

[SemperEadem]

9. they need to name that thing Tony

[mod mom]

23. should be, but it will be named Alex

[AsahinaKimi]

13. Storms like this

usually come with Lightning. Any chance this oil could become a rain of fire? This would be horrible if so. Could even be worse, with Lightning, as hot as it is, exploding the oil right in the atmosphere. I don't even think people have a clue of whats possible.

:scared:

[Nihil]

14. Not much chance ...

> Storms like this usually come with Lightning. Any chance this oil
> could become a rain of fire?

... but wouldn't it just make the fundies' heads explode?!

:evilgrin:

[AsahinaKimi]

18. Well I would like to hear

A scientific explanation as to why this couldn't happen. I have seen what Lightning can do to a tree.

One time in our back yard lightning hit a palm tree. The fire department came, and sprinkled down the tree with water. It was so hot, that the tree burst into flames again. The fire department again used water, and again the fire seemed to be out, but once again, the tree started to burn again. They finally had to chop it into pieces and used foam..

Now I have heard that lightning is super hot. One would think a combination of oil even mixed with water vapor would ignite. Would not the water evaporate leaving just the oil particles? I would like to hear a rational reason why this could not happen.

[tranche]

16. This is not possible.

You can read this if you want the worst case scenario:

[RantinRavin]

20. Actually, having gone through several hurricanes

The one thing that has always amazed me is the lack of lightning with them. Usually some associated with the very outer feeder bands, but that is all.

[slackmaster]

26. I saw the biggest lightning show of my life in New York City in post-tropical Storm David in 1979

I spent about an hour on a rooftop watching several strikes per second hitting buildings on Manhattan.

[Warpy]

31. There was one like that one summer on Cape Cod

I'd gone downstairs to watch it through sliding glass doors. The lightning was nearly constant. I picked up a book and by golly, I could read it in the flickering light. The noise was tremendous.

[Gman]

29. I agree. When the TV alleged meteorologists talk about the thunderstrorms

in a hurricane I laugh. I've lived in S Texas my whole life and I've been through tropical storms and a couple of hurricanes. It's just heavy rain with just an occasional thunder clap. You may not hear more than 1. Maybe 2.

The outer bands are a different story. That's where you can find the thunder and lightening and a twister or two.

[Warpy]

32. It's probably far too dilute a mixture to be detonated

by lightning. We can smell it and it stinks, but it's still below the fuel to oxygen concentration it would need to ignite.

In addition, the hurricane force winds would dilute the mixture of volatile stuff even farther, bringing it far away from the surface and into the upper atmosphere.

[tranche]

17. Here is the Worst Case Scenario

[mod mom]

22. upgraded to a high 80% chance per Reuters:

Tropical depression likely in Caribbean
NEW YORK
Fri Jun 25, 2010 2:19pm EDT
(Reuters) - A tropical disturbance over the western Caribbean Sea continued to strengthen, and has a high 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression later Friday or Saturday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Friday.

-snip

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65O04D20100625?type=domesticNews

:scared:

[slackmaster]

25. It's now officially TD1 per National Hurricane Center

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The expected track keeps it west of the drilling site.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0110W5_NL_sm2+gif/215913W5_NL_sm.gif

[mod mom]

27. SHIT!

[slackmaster]

28. IT'S COMING RIGHT AT US!!!

[Cetacea]

33. Too bad that west of the drilling site is the worst case scenario.

It will drive the oil towards Florida. In addition, given the above average heat this could very well develop into a major hurricane, in which case the location of the eye won't matter very much.