STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday June 25

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday June 25, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 24, 2010

Dow... 10,152.80 -145.64 (-1.41%)
Nasdaq... 2,217.42 -36.81 (-1.63%)
S&P 500... 1,073.69 -18.35 (-1.68%)
Gold future... 1,244 -2.40 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.14 +0.01 (+0.35%)
30-Year Bond 4.10 +0.04 (+0.86%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 GDP - Third Estimate Q1
Briefing.com 3.0%
Consensus 3.0%
Prior 3.0%

08:30 GDP Deflator Q1
Briefing.com 1.0%
Consensus 1.0%
Prior 1.0%

09:55 U Michigan Sentiment - Final Jun
Briefing.com 75.3
Consensus 75.5
Prior 75.5

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[SarahB]

23. Third estimate is down to 2.7%

Hmmm... :popcorn:

[SarahB]

25. Follow up question for everyone:

Between the first estimate and the third, the GDP was revised down .5%. How unusual an occurrence is this?

[ozymandius]

29. In normal context, it's significant.

In a long-term view, it is remarkable. The first revision of GDP after Obama's inauguration sank by percentage points. (Sorry, don't have the figure in my head.) The downward revision, post-inauguration, was huge. It was so huge, in fact, that the economic community across the board loudly wondered how could the previously stated figure be so wrong.

A .5% downward revision is a big deal because of the expectation weighing on the results of the various stimulus plans in place. I imagine the housing stimulus plan was expected to carry GDP under its own momentum with expenses directly related to new home purchases.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil drops to near $76 amid new economic jitters

LONDON – Oil prices fell to near $76 a barrel Friday in Europe as stock markets tumbled amid concerns over the pace of the global economic recovery.

Oil was lower after lackluster data Thursday from the U.S. that renewed concerns over a slower-than-expected global economic recovery that may hurt crude demand, said Clarence Chu, a trader with market maker Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore.

U.S. unemployment benefit claims failed to show hiring was increasing last week, durable good orders slipped last month and orders of big-ticket goods were down in May. The reports come a day after the Federal Reserve issued a statement on the economy that showed the central bank is also more cautious about a recovery.

In other Nymex trading in July contracts, heating oil was down 1.38 cents at $2.0434 a gallon, gasoline fell 1.33 cents to $2.0802 a gallon and natural gas was up 0.6 cents at $4.754 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Stymied by GOP, Democrats at loss on jobs agenda

WASHINGTON – Stymied by Republicans, Democrats are at a loss as they struggle to help pump up the economy in the run-up to congressional elections this fall.

The demise of their jobs-agenda legislation Thursday means that unemployment benefits will phase out for more than 200,000 people a week. Governors who had counted on fresh federal aid will now have to consider a more budget cuts, tax increases and layoffs of state workers.

Senate Democrats cut billions from the bill in an attempt to attract enough Republican votes to overcome a filibuster. But the 57-41 vote fell three votes short of the 60 required to crack a GOP filibuster, leaving the way forward unclear.

The rejected bill would have provided $16 billion in new aid to states, preserving the jobs of thousands of state and local government workers and providing what White House officials called an insurance policy against a double-dip recession. It also included dozens of tax breaks sought by business lobbyists and tax increases on domestically produced oil and on investment fund managers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100625/ap_on_bi_ge/us_congress_spending

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This nihilistic decision from the GOP befuddles me. How can GOP candidates attract voters, especially the greatly important swing voters, while they continually embrace policies that hurt such a vast number of people?

[SarahB]

6. They're playing a cynical game that, unfortunately, will probably work.

Time and time again we've seen that the public mainly blames the party in power for economic problems. This is why I felt that Obama, from day one, needed to do the opposite of what he did, which was tell us the economy was going to recover and then take credit for it doing so before it had actually happened; now it's even easier to blame him. Instead, he should have been hammering "It's Bush's fault", going for prosecutions, and being truthful and detailed with the American public.

Democrats need an all out, sustained media blitz about this vote if we are to have any hope in the fall.

[ozymandius]

8. Oh, I feel confident that they will pound this fact.

So many politically unpopular items will be affected by the failure of this bill's passage. Police departments, the justice system, education funding, among other issues will be cut due to the GOP's stymying of this bill's funding. States need the money that would have been appropriated for them in this bill for basic government functions. So instead of relieving the plight of the unemployed, the GOP has elected to throw more people out of work.

The message must be simple and blunt: the Republicans seek electoral gains by creating misery. Nihilism in action.

[DemReadingDU]

12. I would think people who no longer get unemployment compensation...

That these people would be angry at the Republicans, and vote Democrats. However, if the entire economy slips deeper into recession/depression, which I think is what the Republicans are counting on, the people most likely would vote for the Republicans because the Democrats in office, made the recession worse. This is going to be an ugly election.

[ozymandius]

14. Yes. You are right.

I do expect blood and eyeballs on the floor. The sporting part of it will be to watch how the right wing kooks of the Tea Party shape the Republican message. We already have prominent crazies waving the Tea Party flag in Florida, Kentucky and Utah.

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. Hey, don't ferget about us

The Maine Repukes adopted the Teabag Platform as their own

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=156x7168
:scared:

[ozymandius]

18. I don't know whether to offer my condolences or congratulations.

The disturbing thing about the Tea Party is that they will get many votes. As example of a similar dynamic, on January 19, 2009, Bush had a 20% approval rating. Kooks will always be with us.

[Po_d Mainiac]

33. All we gotta do is overturn Roe

Then Jesus will clean up all the messes from the Gulf/s to Wall St..........Don'tchaknow

[Loge23]

15. Twiddle Dee & Twiddle Dum

Does it really matter anymore - Dem or Rep?
I can probably safely state on this thread my utter disappointment in all things Democrat, particularly since the '08 election.
Can the Dems even mount a formidible offense/defense based on, well, anything that they have accomplished?
Health Care? Watered down way past where it could've/should've been.
Finance Reform? Next question, please.
Accountability of the Bush regime? None.
Afghanistan? Don't ask, don't tell (how's that for a two-fer)

Certainly I would never vote for a Rep, but it's pretty difficult for me to get behind what frequently passes for a Dem these days.

If the Dems can't successfully argue the main point about necessary and effective government intervention - and it appears that they avoid this subject - then we effectively have a coalition government that basically hates each other. Meanwhile, the inferno rages on.

[Po_d Mainiac]

17. You covered the major food groups....n/t

[Ghost Dog]

21. Telecommunications reform... still pending. n/t

[DemReadingDU]

22. Yep, n/t

[fasttense]

40. It continually amazes me how successful the right wing nuts

are as a minority party at stopping Obama and anything progressive. Yet, when the Dems were in the minority, they couldn't do anything.

It seems the Dems can't do anything progressive when they are in the minority or in the majority. I never knew a President and majority party could be so powerless.

[MARALE]

27. I agree with you Sara

It really was not talked about today that it was the republicans that stopped this bill and by the time of elections, it will be forgotten that it was the Cons' fault and blame will be put on the party in charge. they need to make sure that this is heard, but it is hard with the ADHD Media that we have now. This needs to be talked about as much as possible.

[Hawkowl]

37. Filibuster is talk

This is why the dems should just let the Rethugs filibuster. Talk, talk, talk all the way to November. The dems would win in a landslide as the entire government comes to a halt.

[ozymandius]

34. Here's an example of what Republicans are willing to do to themselves.

From Bloomberg:

States of Crisis for 46 Governments Facing Greek-Style Deficits

Even as the U.S. appears to be on the mend -- gross domestic product has climbed three straight quarters -- finances in Arizona, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and other states show few signs of improvement. Forty-six states face budget shortfalls that add up to $112 billion for the fiscal year ending next June, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington research institution. State spending is 12 percent of U.S. GDP.

State budget woes are a worsening drag on growth as the federal government tries to wean the economy from two years of extraordinary support. By Jan. 1, funds from the $787 billion federal stimulus bill will dry up. That money from Washington has helped cushion state budgets as tax revenue has plunged.

State leaders won’t be able to ride out this cycle the way they have in the past. The budget holes are too large. For the first time since 1962, sales and income tax revenue fell for five straight quarters, through December 2009, according to the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York at Albany.

Reform may get short shrift as Republicans and Democrats intensify their age-old fight over taxes and spending in this election year. On May 20, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie vetoed a Democratic bill that would have raised income taxes for residents earning at least $1 million a year to help close an $11 billion deficit. Christie, a Republican, wants to cut spending for school districts and cap property tax increases.

So the battle lines and rules of engagement are drawn. Democrats and some Republicans (not seeking elected office) realize the need to raise taxes just to staunch the jobs hemorrhage so as to keep tax revenues from declining further. Republicans in office want to cut spending on essential programs (Who wants to argue that education is not essential?), protect the richest citizens from paying higher taxes and introduce initiatives á-la Norquist to starve the state of funding.

Edit to add this line about California:

“How do you screw up a place with the growth capability of California? It’s so dysfunctional.”

Indeed! How?

[Ghost Dog]

36. To which (repeating this) the LEAP/E2020 forecasts are relevant:

... US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity »

The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis. Indeed the 2008 presidential election took place with a backdrop of a Wall Street collapse (which drove the Barack Obama vote) but without the whole of the US population yet having a clear view of the scope of the economic and social damage that it was going to lead to. Then, in a context of an ongoing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and widespread disillusion over the ability of the Obama administration to reverse the negative trends at work in the country (deindustrialization (6), a collapse of the middle class into the disadvantaged class, real estate foreclosures, unemployment, excess of household, local authority and state indebtedness, growing worry on the increasing size of Federal deficits, unending wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (7)…), the electoral situation is particularly explosive, as we have already analysed in the last issue, with the rise in power of the new secessionists and the « Tea Party » movement. We won’t return to these analyses here.

On the other hand, we think it necessary to underline the growing state of decay of the socio-economic climate for a large majority of US citizens, and for two reasons:

. on the one hand because, to us, it is a determining factor in anticipating how a large number of Americans will vote in November 2010

. on the other hand, because it is a fact which is covered anecdotally by most of US mainstream media, and which is almost ignored by leading foreign media, especially Western (8).

...

This local authority and state crisis is overshadowed by the problems of Federal deficits. However, it is the other side of the same coin. And a side which will appear during the second half of 2010 and which has a doubly explosive character: electoral, as the elections will show, and financial which the consequences of the next market crisis in « Munis – US local authority bonds » will prove (see the section containing Recommendations in this issue).

However, for LEAP/E2020, the situation is clear: the immediate environment of the vast majority of US citizens has not stopped worsening since 2008 whatever the statistics and Federal experts may say (9). The true rate of unemployment is at least between 15% and 20% (10) and reaches 30% to 40% in the towns and regions which are the most badly affected by the crisis (11). Never have so many Americans been dependant on Federal Government food stamps which now contribute, to an unprecedented extent, to US households’ income (12). The states are also obliged to increase their budget cuts (13) and to abolish all types of social services, increasing unemployment in the same stroke (14). And these events unfold whilst the impact of the Obama administration’s economic stimulation plan is deemed to be at its maximum (15)!

There is nothing surprising in learning that household consumption is not taking off, even falling as May retail sales show; and that the real estate market continues its descent into hell (16). As a matter of fact, the most reliable advanced indicators show that the US economy will start to contract in the second half of this year (17). Far from the 3.5% growth announced by Ben Bernanke for 2010, the country will be really lucky according to our team if it records a number above zero for the current year.

Because, contrary to the statements coming out of Washington and Wall Street, austerity is already here for the vast majority of US citizens who haven’t any more work, and/or no more homes, and/or debts exceeding their assets, and who can no longer pay their childrens’ university fees, their outing or their holidays, without even discussing day-to-day living costs. In addition, in numerous localities (18), there is no longer regular rubbish collection (or else they must pay higher taxes), Saturday mail deliveries have been stopped (19), they are less well protected due to a lack of police, they must queue endlessly at state and government offices following the firing of civil servants, and their children have fewer teachers in the schools which provide fewer services (canteen, school buses…). In general terms, it is the local authorities and the states which, de facto, have been putting in place a policy of austerity hidden from the world for many months now, and which is accelerating.



It is what LEAP/E2020 calls « rampant mass austerity ». It has been the main component of the real US economy and
society for two years and is that which embodies the end of the « US consumer » which we have anticipated since the end of 2006, due to insolvency. This insolvency has steadily progressed upwards, towards players in the real estate market, towards the banks, towards car manufacturers. And now, at the end of an economic stimulus, it affects the states, the banks once again and at last the Federal State because, following the successful media staging of the « Greek crisis », the fear of sovereign bankruptcy has led the Eurozone and the rest of the G20 to favour the re-establishment of structural balanced budgets and, then, to ban the pursuit ofWestern public indebtedness (20). But without growing public indebtedness, the US economy is condemned to suffer a major crisis because, for the last two or three decades, it has only produced one thing, debt, and that it only exports the latter. The US Dollar is nothing more than a credit letter on a fully indebted economy.

Thus, in deciding not to accede to the request of the US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, to begin a further round of debt-based economic stimulus, the G20 has condemned Washington to have to face the unthinkable for world markets: announce an era of Federal budget austerity. Irony of history, this negative step by the G20 (in letting each one do what it could, the other G20 members didn’t dare be explicit on the necessity for US austerity) is directly connected to the likely consequences of the November 2010 elections which will see US voters deal some severe blows to the Washington system and to its two big bets (see previous GEAB issues), making such a « mental revolution » not only possible, but necessary for the Democrats and the Republicans if they want to have a chance of winning the 2010 Presidential Elections. For our team, US domestic socio-political constraints thus meet with external economic-financial pressures during the second half of 2010, making inevitable the implementation of the first major US austerity budget plan for over sixty years combined with the sharpest rise in fiscal pressure for fifty years.

...

The consequences of such a (r)evolution on the US economy, trade, world financial markets, Dollar denominated assets (at the forefront of which are US Treasury Bonds) and the Dollar itself, are huge. We will come back to this in the recommendations section of this issue. Nevertheless, one should bear in mind that, since 1945 (and perhaps even the 1930’s), the world economy and finance has been based on the myth of an irresistible US growth engine which, whilst suffering short periods of loss of speed, remained reliable under all trials. If the weakness of the social net has always required that the United States have strong growth in order to avoid millions of Americans being crushed by poverty, doubtless it is even worse for the world financial and monetary system which enjoys no safety net at all. If Greek or Spanish austerity measures provoke such disorder, imagine what will come about because of US austerity which necessitates budgetary cuts of at least one trillion USD over a three to five year period (21). This sort of news will provoke a radical reconsideration of the principal myth on which international markets and the economic and financial system of these last few decades were based, guaranteeing it a place at the forefront amongst the four single points of failure for the global system during the next half year.

/... http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-46-Special-Summer-2010-edition-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-Second-half-of-2010-The-global-system-s-four_a4810.html

[Ghost Dog]

38. Ah, and by way of a coda to which I'd like to recommend this from Time for change:

Internationalism, Freedom, Fascism, and Dark History: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8630998

[Demeter]

41. We Need To Pink-Slip Half of the Senate

(the Right half) and give them a taste of reality.

[ozymandius]

4. Mortgage rates at lowest point since mid-1950s

WASHINGTON – Mortgages are cheaper today than they've been in a half-century. If only most people had the job security, the credit score and the cash to qualify.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan sank to 4.69 percent this week, beating the low set in December and down from 4.75 percent last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday. Rates for 15-year and five-year mortgages also hit lows.

Rates are at their lowest since the mortgage company began keeping records in 1971. The last time they were any cheaper was the 1950s, when most long-term home loans lasted just 20 or 25 years.

Almost no one expects falling rates to energize the economy, though. Sales of new homes collapsed in May after an enticing tax credit expired.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100624/ap_on_bi_ge/us_mortgage_rates

[ozymandius]

5. World markets mixed on concerns about US recovery

LONDON – World markets were mixed Friday as investors were tempted to buy back into stocks after a week of steady losses, but remained worried by downbeat economic indicators from the U.S.

European indexes edged higher, though Asia mostly closed lower after a dour session on Wall Street. The muted forecasts from retailers including Nike and Bed Bath & Beyond raised concerns that high unemployment and weak consumer spending would stall an economic rebound.

Britain's FTSE 100 stock index was up 0.1 percent at 5,104.35 while Germany's DAX was 0.2 percent higher at 6,128.47. France's CAC-40 was flat at 3,555.14.

Asian stocks fell, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 1.9 percent, and Wall Street was expected to show little drive on the open. Dow futures were 0.3 percent higher at 10,129 while Standard & Poor's 500 futures were flat at 1,070.70.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100625/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

7. Lawmakers Agree on Wall Street’s Biggest Overhaul Since 1930s

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Congressional negotiators today approved the most sweeping overhaul of U.S. financial regulation since the Great Depression, reshaping oversight of Wall Street.

The bill seeks to protect consumers, curb risks, boost surveillance of emerging threats to markets and give regulators more emergency powers to avoid future taxpayer-funded bailouts of too-big-to-fail firms.

The Obama administration’s proposal to ban banks from proprietary trading, nicknamed the Volcker rule after former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, was softened by Senate negotiators.

Banks will be allowed to invest in private-equity and hedge funds, though they will be limited to providing no more than 3 percent of the fund’s capital. Banks also can’t invest more than 3 percent of their Tier 1 capital.

Beyond the swaps-desk provision, the Senate legislation will push most over-the-counter derivatives through third-party clearinghouses and onto regulated exchanges or similar electronic systems, a measure that will make it easier for the market and regulators to track the trades. It will mean higher margin costs on some transactions.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad5ElcZekFJQ

[ozymandius]

20. Mirabile Dictu: $19 Billion Fee Added to Financial Reform Bill (Updated)

From Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism:

In a weak nod to “too big to fail” concerns, House Financial Services Committee chairman Barney Frank announced that larger banks and hedge funds would pay a fee as a way of pre-funding resolution costs. From the Financial Times:

The proposed levy emerged as an unwelcome surprise for the industry deep into a late-evening congressional session to finalise landmark Wall Street reform legislation. Banks with more than $50bn in assets and hedge funds with more than $10bn will be required to pay into the fund as a proportion of their assets….

One of the long technical arguments during the reform debate has been over whether to impose an upfront fee on large financial institutions to cover the costs associated by the government seizing and winding down a failing firm using new powers.

Lawmakers had resolved to recoup the costs after any use of the so-called “resolution” powers but aides said that the vagaries of congressional budgeting meant there had to be an upfront fee of some sort.

Yves here. First, keep in mind the bill is still in play, so this language may not survive final horse-trading. Second, even though the big banks will throw hissy fits over this fee, they are still getting away with murder. As Anthony Haldane of the Bank of England pointed out, explicit bailout costs are only a fraction of the true cost of economy-wrecking financial crises...

So major financial firms enjoy state backstopping, have perilously few constraints on their behavior, and destroy value, yet industry leaders and employee are better paid than average workers. That, sports fans, is a prima facie evidence of both looting and the need to rein in financial firm risk taking radically.

ozy here: Removing the state from being the default backstop to financial system excesses is fine. But will the amount set aside for covering their excessive asses be enough?

[Po_d Mainiac]

30. $19B..........?

TARP authorized $700B......$245B went to banks

Let's do some math...$19B = $245B...Hmmm, That don't look right? Best to look in some other direction..Ah, much better

[florida08]

31. would be ok if it were annually

[florida08]

24. sweeping overhaul? lol

[Ghost Dog]

28. Finally The Farce Passes And Wall Street Can Resume Its Rapid March To Financial Armageddon

As if anyone thought otherwise, the final shape of finreg has now been formalized and as Shahien Nasiripour at the Huffington Post notes, "many of the measures that offered the greatest chances to fundamentally reshape how the Street conducts business have been struck out, weakened, or rendered irrelevant." Congrats, middle class, once again you get raped by Wall Street, which is off to the races to yet again rapidly blow itself up courtesy of 30x leverage, unlimited discount window usage, trillions in excess reserves, quadrillions in unregulated derivatives, a TBTF framework that has been untouched and will need a rescue in under a year, non-existent accounting rules, a culture of unmitigated greed, and all of Congress and Senate on its payroll. And, sorry, you can't even vote some of the idiots that passed this garbage out: after all there is a retiring lame duck in charge of it all. We can only hope his annual Wall Street (i.e. taxpayer funded) annuity will satisfy his conscience for destroying any hope America could have of a credible financial system.

/... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/finally-farce-fin-reg-reform-passes-and-wall-street-can-resume-its-rapid-march-armageddon

[ozymandius]

9. EU Said to Discuss Applying Stress-Tests to Cajas, Landesbanken

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- European Union officials are meeting today in Brussels to discuss whether Spanish savings banks and Germany’s state-owned regional Landesbanken should be included in the current round of stress tests, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

The meeting will also examine whether to include the chance of a sovereign-debt default in the stress test scenario and on which day to release the results of the tests, said the people, who declined to be identified because the discussions are private.

EU leaders agreed last week to disclose how banks perform in stress tests, seeking to show investors that the financial system can withstand shocks. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government won’t compel banks to agree to the publication of the tests, relying on market pressure for transparency to achieve the same result.

The Spanish government has said it is already performing stress tests on its 45 savings banks, also known as cajas.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amQiGjfJwtas&pos=2

---

The EU stress test process appears just as contrived as the US models: Rather than evaluating the banks for weaknesses - the measure seeks to show how really, verily, the banks really are. As if to say, "Honestly they're strong. No worries. Nothing to see here. All is well."

[Ghost Dog]

11. Spanish Govt. already 'leaked' that Banco Santander

is the most stress-resistant bank in Europe, according to tests already run, and BBVA is "among the top four"...

[ozymandius]

13. Hi Ghost Dog. Just wondering -

How much trust do you place in how these banks are resistant to stress? I am really curious about their asset allocations, exposure to sovereign debt, unemployment rates, etc.

Thanks.

[Ghost Dog]

19. I'll be doing the research, Ozy.

I've certainly come to respect, over the years, the quality of the 'safe hands', mostly traditional conservative banking, represented by the still mostly (Botín) family-run top management at Banco Santander.

Generally, Spanish savings banks (cajas, caixas, kutxas) are the ones most exposed to still-pending real-estate devaluations - hence the recent (overdue) round of consolidation in that sector.

I'll try to provide updates.

:hi: (I'm just back from four days in central Istanbul. I'm very impressed. Very dynamic, with all the enormous depth of Anatolia behind... Turkey has strong prospects).

[florida08]

26. that's good news for my ears

Am with Compass bank who merged with BBVA a couple of years ago. Moved from Wachovia when they got into trouble.

[ozymandius]

10. Baltic Dry Index

Ritholtz has posted a link to the Chart Store with a complimentary BDI chart. He says:

The BDI, which shows increasing signs of stress.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/baltic-dry-index-4/

And while we're looking at Ritholtz's The Big Picture, he has one word for anyone looking at diving into currency trading: Don't!

[ozymandius]

32. numbers and blather

9:42
Dow 10,156.05 3.25 (0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,216.23 1.19 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,075.03 1.34 (0.12%)

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.80. The broader market appears poised for a slightly higher start after it had been undermined in earlier action by a disappointing final reading on first quarter GDP. Pockets of strength are seen among bank stocks, which have benefited from a positive reaction to the finalized financial reform bill. Among tech plays, Oracle (ORCL) is strong after it posted an upside surprise for the latest quarter and issued solid guidance. However, Research In Motion (RIMM) is under sharp pressure after it reported an upside surprise of its own, but issued a relatively mixed outlook.

Overseas action had any positive influence from a sentiment standpoint -- Europe's major bourses are all in the red at the moment and Asia's major market averages already succumbed to selling in their final session of the week.

Traders should also take note that today is the annual rebalancing of the Russell indices, an event that could lead to heightened volume and volatility on what would otherwise be a slow, end-of-week summer session.

Market participants get their hands on the final Consumer Sentiment Survey for June from the University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET.

[Festivito]

35. Debt: 06/23/2010 13,041,849,923,645.94 (DOWN 4,802,723,945.87) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Vacation for another day.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,559,676,754,753.46 + 4,482,173,168,892.48
UP 605,957,540.69 + DOWN 5,408,681,486.56

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,230.67 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,533,531 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,133.88.
A family of three owes $126,401.65. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 2,350,134,013.45.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,801,769,410.31.
The average for the last 33 days would be 1,637,972,191.19.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 182 reports in 266 days of FY2010 averaging 6.22B$ per report, 4.26B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 942 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/23/2010 13,041,849,923,645.94 BHO (UP 2,414,972,874,732.86 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,132,020,920,134.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,553,336,976,875.88 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********
06/10/2010 -005,787,434,254.89 --
06/11/2010 -000,035,173,484.80 ----
06/14/2010 +000,237,116,126.71 ------------******** Mon
06/15/2010 +026,653,914,221.49 ------------**********
06/16/2010 +000,179,185,558.18 ------------********
06/17/2010 -040,132,025,764.65 -
06/18/2010 +000,218,467,463.90 ------------********
06/21/2010 -000,091,646,713.41 ---- Mon
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********

-13,625,575,709.65 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4440193&mesg_id=4440572

[Festivito]

43. Debt: 06/24/2010 13,038,079,983,718.36 (DOWN 3,769,939,927.58) (Thu)

(Down some. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,556,293,486,630.55 + 4,481,786,497,087.81
DOWN 3,383,268,122.91 + DOWN 386,671,804.67

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,230.60 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,540,177 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,120.8.
A family of three owes $126,362.4. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 2,129,764,095.10.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,632,819,139.58.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,580,147,554.43.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 183 reports in 267 days of FY2010 averaging 6.17B$ per report, 4.23B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 941 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/24/2010 13,038,079,983,718.36 BHO (UP 2,411,202,934,805.28 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,128,250,980,206.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,542,365,572,192.55 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********
06/10/2010 -005,787,434,254.89 --
06/11/2010 -000,035,173,484.80 ----
06/14/2010 +000,237,116,126.71 ------------******** Mon
06/15/2010 +026,653,914,221.49 ------------**********
06/16/2010 +000,179,185,558.18 ------------********
06/17/2010 -040,132,025,764.65 -
06/18/2010 +000,218,467,463.90 ------------********
06/21/2010 -000,091,646,713.41 ---- Mon
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********
06/24/2010 -003,383,268,122.91 --

-21,036,359,236.42 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4441752&mesg_id=4442035

[TalkingDog]

39. The Pea Pickers Dilemma or (handy clickable Gen Y title) The Epic Fail of American Politicians

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8633876&mesg_id=8633876

Cross post from GD

[mbperrin]

42. Nice job! I put a few of my own paranoid actions of the last 30+ years

there as well.